KGI says 'iPhone 7' won't have 'many attractive selling points,' predicts competitors to outperform

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  • Reply 41 of 153
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 4,297member
    mj web said:
    You don't need an analyst. Based on my own observations, I've been questioning what Ive and Cook have been up to recently? Rose gold products, a bland looking watch that requires an iPhone to use, Beats, the contorted non 4K Apple TV? Hell, I may cop a Skylake MBP soon, but the only thing I've seen fit to purchase from Apple lately is a .99 cent a month iCloud upgrade and one Prince song. This isn't Steve Jobs' Apple, and by any impartial measure, Cook and Jony simply aren't cutting it. They are the parties responsible for AAPL stock tanking.
    Remind me again what Jony Ive has to do with Beats and the TV not supporting 4K? Eddy Cue is responsible for TV and by all accounts it was his idea for Apple to acquire Beats. On and there are very few smart watches that are stand alone right now. Anyone with half a brain would know why. Did you complain that the iPod required a Mac or PC to get music on it? How about iPhone? It was several generations before it became untethered from a computer. Was that a failure too? Or how about when Steve Jobs was milking the iMac with Dalmatian and flower power versions? Or when he announced iPod socks on stage? I can only imagine what people here would say if Tim Cook got up on stage and announced iPhone socks. The double standard makes me want to vomit.
    nolamacguycaliration albobschlobpatchythepiratethepixeldoc
  • Reply 42 of 153
    I suspect that the new iPhone will be iPhone Pro and not iPhone 7. I don't think the upgrades are big enough to justify an number change. And that's fine, because 2017 OLED upgrade will be massive from the looks of it.
  • Reply 43 of 153
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    tommikele said:
    Kuo is "noted" by whom, exactly? AI and MR keep saying that, but you never explain where this adoration supposedly comes from -- other than from yourselves, of course. 

    he claims iPhone needs better specs to keep selling? what a load of nonsense. I can't believe even AI doesn't understand why that notion is so wrong-headed. 

    even if iphone does experience decline in sales, that insanely high number will still blow away all others, and suck up all industry profit. as usual.
    I can't comment on his record as a predictor of financial results and sales figures, but he has a record as being the most accurate predictor on forthcoming Apple products. Compared to the analyst community in general, the guy is a genius in terms of knowing what is coming, product features and components. He seems to have the best sources of anyone in the Asian factories and is able to pry pretty good information out of them. This "adoration" (your term, not anyone else's) is wide spread and has been earned in the areas I mentioned. You sound pissed because you don't like what he is saying. What if he just happens to be right about iPhone 7 and then iPhone 7s/8? He is among many analysts who seem to think Apple will show a year over year decline for their flagship model and there is solid explanation behind that conclusion. I hope it's wrong, but a lot of signs point to it. The idea that a very significant revamp is needed to maintain market position and sales growth has a lot credibility to it. He isn't predicting doom, disaster or any other of the moronic things some of those tools seem to say. He is just calling it as he sees it and he has had better vision than most over the last few years. Try being a little less emotional about it and understand it is business, strictly business and he and others are calling it as they see it.
    you've completely missed the point. Kuo is invoking the oft used but completely wrong meme that Apple "needs" better specs in its devices. that's bullocks. they don't play the specs game, yet they're winning. 

    also, Kuo isn't claiming anything new here -- Cool himself warmed of slowing sales on the earnings call. 

    Kuo is adored as a noted analyst, but there is no actual data to back up your claim that he's more accurate than anyone else -- say, Mark Gurman. happy to review your links that prove he is. 
    edited April 2016 ration al
  • Reply 44 of 153
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member

    nhughes said:
    tommikele said:
    I can't comment on his record as a predictor of financial results and sales figures, but he has a record as being the most accurate predictor on forthcoming Apple products. Compared to the analyst community in general, the guy is a genius in terms of knowing what is coming, product features and components. He seems to have the best sources of anyone in the Asian factories and is able to pry pretty good information out of them. This "adoration" (your term, not anyone else's) is wide spread and has been earned in the areas I mentioned. You sound pissed because you don't like what he is saying. What if he just happens to be right about iPhone 7 and then iPhone 7s/8? He is among many analysts who seem to think Apple will show a year over year decline for their flagship model and there is solid explanation behind that conclusion. I hope it's wrong, but a lot of signs point to it. The idea that a very significant revamp is needed to maintain market position and sales growth has a lot credibility to it. He isn't predicting doom, disaster or any other of the moronic things some of those tools seem to say. He is just calling it as he sees it and he has had better vision than most over the last few years. Try being a little less emotional about it and understand it is business, strictly business and he and others are calling it as they see it.
    What this guy said. 
    can you post a quantative article that backs up your claim? otherwise, that's just like, your opinion, man. 
    bestkeptsecret
  • Reply 45 of 153
    EsquireCatsEsquireCats Posts: 1,268member
    If Apple make minimal cosmetic changes, then it's really going to be an iPhone 6S-S. I really don't see them doing that for any reason at all. It seems more like they've doubled down on secrecy, so far all I've heard about the 7 is rumours about the headphone jack, and nothing atypical (proc upgrades etc)
    ration al
  • Reply 46 of 153
    calicali Posts: 3,494member
    "We can't think of anything creative so neither can Apple!"

    This seems to be the idea before every iPhone release then BAM! Apple releases something unexpected and people line up for it.

    "Analysts predict nothing more than a spec bump. Low sales."

    We'll see something unexpected just like we do every year.

    just because WE can't think of anything creative doesn't mean Apple can't.
    ration alpatchythepiratenolamacguythepixeldoc
  • Reply 47 of 153
    joshajosha Posts: 901member
    Noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities continues to have a bearish outlook on iPhone sales through the end of 2016, telling investors on Sunday that he believes Apple will be the only top-five smartphone vendor to see shipments decline this year.

    To stimulate growth, Kuo believes the iPhone "needs a makeover" to attract consumers. It's expected that the "iPhone 7" will sport a new chassis when it debuts later this year, but the analyst apparently does not believe that will be enough.

    Instead, he believes Apple is on track to release a major redesign in 2017 with a glass back and OLED display. Since most smartphones on the market feature aluminum backs, he believes switching back to glass -- as Apple did with the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4s -- will allow the company to stand out from competitors.
    OMG  he wants a glass back on the iPhone7 !!!    As an iPhone4 user, I wouldn't buy another glass backed iPhone.
    Actually I cover the back anyway.  Doesn't he see all the iPhones in lovely protective covers ?

    Hey Kuo it's mainly the software that makes the difference at this time, plus high price outside of the USA.
    Apple's iPhone prices in CDA are far too high, the iPhone is mostly not made in the USA
        and probably doesn't even visit there on the way to CDA.
    I expect the iPhoneSE will show high sales plus profit
      and Apple will still make very good profit overall because of the favorably high USA $.  :D
    ration al
  • Reply 48 of 153
    Shoot the messenger, but chances are he's not wrong. As someone that has updated every year, I'm not very excited about the 7 after the minor update that was the 6s. Force touch? I think I've used it twice. The bump from 1GB of RAM to 2GB is really the only reason I made the switch. I don't see Apple ditching Lightning for USB-C, and after they intentionally left a USB 3.1 compatible controller out of the 9.7" iPad Pro, I don't see them putting one in the next iPhone either. So what's going to be the killer feature for the iPhone 7? Better camera? The 6s is good enough. Battery life? Doubtful if their goal is still thinner devices. A new color? No one has tried platinum yet I guess. 
    There's not much else to say here. I don't want to be negative, but it is what it is and folks are starting to realize it. WWDC is going to be crucial for Cook and Ive, so I really hope they both have something special in store. 
    So you're basically saying there's nothing that would be exciting anymore yet Cook needs to walk on water at WWDC or Aple is doomed....ok.
    I'm saying that there had better be something special lined up for WWDC if anyone expects the recent slide in sales, as well as the less than stellar performance of AAPL in the last year, to change. Good isn't good enough anymore, time to shake things up. Steve became legend doing just that, now the ball is in Tim's court. Sorry for expecting better but as a decades long Apple consumer, as well as AAPL stockholder, I've got plenty of hay in the game. 
    And enough with the "Apple is doomed" jibe. It's tired and annoying. Get some new material Rog. 
  • Reply 49 of 153
    joshajosha Posts: 901member

    Kuo's supposed track record in predicting what will go into future iPhones (when he's not wrong or contradicting himself) now extends to predicting how many iPhone 7's Apple will sell by year's end. And yes, these "analysts" do worship and praise high unit sales volume over profitability, consistently.
    Also I'm sure many "analysts" profit on the market as a result of their "predictions" !
  • Reply 50 of 153
    dsddsd Posts: 186member
    So you're basically saying there's nothing that would be exciting anymore yet Cook needs to walk on water at WWDC or Aple is doomed....ok.

    If he did they'd complain Apple is doomed because he can't swim.
    ration al
  • Reply 51 of 153
    Our household of 5 has 5 iPhones bought under the iPhone Upgrade Program.  No brainier -- we wil each upgrade to an iPhone 7 -- instead of  1 New iPhone, and 4 hand-me-downs (as in past years) ... Unless the iPhone 7 is a real looser ...

    edited April 2016 ration alpalomine
  • Reply 52 of 153

    bigpics said:
    ...and lots (and lots) of watch band styles...

    There's always a price to pay when a visionary founder's gone, at least in time - which can be a period of some years with a full pipeline, good teams and someone who can milk these resources, and Cook and co have been able to more or less do that, but each next move seems more and more in the woods IMO. 

    Cook's a supply chain guy with an interest in social isssues.  Ives a) always needed someone with a stronger vision to keep his "preciousity" in check and b) also feels like he's maybe losing interest besides. 

    Not promising. I'm even moving away from all the time I've spent for many years following Apple sites. 

    Meanwhile, I wanted a port and you gave me a pink colored "refesh" still with only one meaning I'd still have to live with an ugly dongle sitch.  Nah, not enough.
    Jesus if you need more ports get a frigging MacBook Pro. Not difficult.
    What if he needs something lighter than a Pro, Rog?
  • Reply 53 of 153
    mattinozmattinoz Posts: 2,388member
    josha said:
    Kuo's supposed track record in predicting what will go into future iPhones (when he's not wrong or contradicting himself) now extends to predicting how many iPhone 7's Apple will sell by year's end. And yes, these "analysts" do worship and praise high unit sales volume over profitability, consistently.
    Also I'm sure many "analysts" profit on the market as a result of their "predictions" !
    Yes there are managed funds that solely trade on sentiment. They are delivering a fairly good returns by driving stock price down with negative stories like this in to the media then selling once the truth comes out. Wouldn't be surprised if authors (not journalist) at MR and AI are on the books of these companies. 

    Then again the stock market is mostly about confidence tricks these days. 
    Apples only real defence would be to reclaim the narrative.
    ration al
  • Reply 54 of 153

    Jesus if you need more ports get a frigging MacBook Pro. Not difficult.
    What if he needs something lighter than a Pro, Rog?
    Get a MacBook Air.
    ValueAnalystbobschlobnolamacguy
  • Reply 55 of 153
    jdwjdw Posts: 1,387member
    Who among us doesn't follow the tech news?  Surely this analyst is no exception.  Think about it.  The MacBook update brought Rose Gold (metallic PINK) to the table and a tad faster performance, but no second USB-C port, no TB3 or even newest USB-3 spec (no 10Gbps), and Apple continues to use that ridiculously ancient 480p camera tech (note that HP's Spectre has 720p).  Then we read that curved display iPhones with OLED tech won't hit the market until next year, in what probably will be the iPhone 8.  So any intelligent consumer of Apple products who knows all this would likely say to themselves, "Can't I be happy with what I have now for another year?  It looks like I'll be getting something better by waiting."  And so they wait, and in turn, this sales year turns out to be rather lackluster for Apple.

    I'm not sure an analyst is needed to figure all that out.  We all know it by reading the news.  But the analyst probably has insider info that only confirms we already know from the news.  The conclusion is therefore only logical.
    6Sgoldfish
  • Reply 56 of 153
    Ming-Chi Kuo has no idea what Apple is working on. 

    If expectations are reduced, Apple will definitely exceed expectations and outperform the stock market.
  • Reply 57 of 153
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    Shoot the messenger, but chances are he's not wrong. As someone that has updated every year, I'm not very excited about the 7 after the minor update that was the 6s. Force touch? I think I've used it twice. The bump from 1GB of RAM to 2GB is really the only reason I made the switch. I don't see Apple ditching Lightning for USB-C, and after they intentionally left a USB 3.1 compatible controller out of the 9.7" iPad Pro, I don't see them putting one in the next iPhone either. So what's going to be the killer feature for the iPhone 7? Better camera? The 6s is good enough. Battery life? Doubtful if their goal is still thinner devices. A new color? No one has tried platinum yet I guess. 
    There's not much else to say here. I don't want to be negative, but it is what it is and folks are starting to realize it. WWDC is going to be crucial for Cook and Ive, so I really hope they both have something special in store. 
    Explain again why you're not excited over an unannounced product?
    nolamacguypalomine
  • Reply 58 of 153
    bluefire1bluefire1 Posts: 1,304member
    If you guys saw the Galaxy 7 Edge, you'll know why the iPhone 7 had better not be a minimal upgrade. 
    qwweracnocbui6Sgoldfishgatorguytechlover
  • Reply 59 of 153
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,002member
    sdw2001 said:
    mac_128 said:
    My only comment here is that if Apple does deliver on the rumor of the iPhone 7 having minimal cosmetic changes over the 6s, and at most significance offers only a processor and camera upgrade, then removing the 3.5mm jack is going to be detrimental to bottom line sales. If that's actually going to happen, they should save it for the "must have" redesigned iPhone 8 update.
    If all Apple offers is a processor and camera upgrade, it doesn't matter what they do with the 3.5mm jack.   An updated 6s would be completely out of character.  Every new "number" release is a major upgrade.  Making the 7 a minor upgrade would be a huge change in precedent.  I don't see it.  I think it's going to look much different, be more powerful all around, have better battery life, some new feature twists, etc.  
    The current shell leaves little to no room for a drastic change. 
  • Reply 60 of 153
    rezwitsrezwits Posts: 891member
    Well now that they are carving out what could possibly (in the future) be 1/3 of iPhone sales with the SE model, I would think there will be a decline, especially that we have peaked, due to almost all features being seen/met, especially with storage size. Quite a few people are going to go every 3 years now. And with leasing changes, even more will drop off the board...
    volcan
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