Two-thirds of US iPhone owners have a 2+ year old device, are prime for upgrades

Posted:
in AAPL Investors
If the typical two-year upgrade cycle holds steady, Apple could be in line for a major "iPhone 7" product cycle, with a majority of existing iPhone users due for a new handset, according to a new survey.




Investment firm Piper Jaffray polled 400 U.S. iPhone owners and found that 67.5 percent of them own an iPhone 6 series or older device. This September will mark two years since the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus first launched.

The most popular device owned by those surveyed was the iPhone 6 (25 percent), followed by the iPhone 6s (21 percent). In all, 31.5 percent of respondents are running an iPhone 5s or older.

Among those polled, 15 percent said they plan to upgrade to the next iPhone this fall, and another 29 percent said they are considering a new handset.




"We view this as in-line with our expectations given we are still over two months away from the official launch and most consumers are not tuned into the Apple rumor cycle," analyst Gene Munster wrote. "We expect the percentage of consumers that plan to upgrade to the iPhone 7 to increase following the announcement, even if it is not a significant technology upgrade."

Munster believes that at a minimum the so-called "iPhone 7" can perform on par with the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus product cycle from two years ago. That would imply 12 percent year over year growth over the current iPhone 6s cycle.

It's expected that this year's so-called "iPhone 7" will ship in September with a thinner design and lacking a 3.5-millimeter headphone port, instead opting to provide audio out through the Lightning port. The larger 5.5-inch "Plus" model is expected to see the most significant upgrades, including a dual-lens camera system, and potentially the addition of a magnetic Smart Connector for charging.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 57
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 2,244member
    I don't need a new iPhone. My 5s works just fine, does everything I need or want.
    sirlance99king editor the gratebaconstangmattinozcnocbui
  • Reply 2 of 57
    seankillseankill Posts: 452member
    My iPhone 6+ will be turning 2 but I will hold out for the 2017 iPhone. This year's iPhone might be a nice upgrade but I don't anticipate anything being a must-have to the point its worth 850$. Smartphones are maturing much like the PC market did years ago, its most an evolutionary process except every 5-6 years.
    sirlance99baconstang
  • Reply 3 of 57
    techguy911techguy911 Posts: 267member
    seankill said:
    My iPhone 6+ will be turning 2 but I will hold out for the 2017 iPhone. This year's iPhone might be a nice upgrade but I don't anticipate anything being a must-have to the point its worth 850$. Smartphones are maturing much like the PC market did years ago, its most an evolutionary process except every 5-6 years.
    eightzero said:
    I don't need a new iPhone. My 5s works just fine, does everything I need or want.
    I agree, my iPhone 6 is turning 2 years old. I have upgraded at least every 2 years since the first iPhone in 2007.  This is the first time I'm considering keeping my current phone past its contract end date.  Apple needs to take some risks and be a bit more aggressive vs play it safe with incremental changes.  
    sirlance99rhonincnocbui
  • Reply 4 of 57
    ddawson100ddawson100 Posts: 450member
    Not sure the conclusion is completely accurate. Some work will be necessary to see if replacement of older devices (2+ years old) will simply fuel the used market. There's clearly a lot of demand that keeps resale values high.
  • Reply 5 of 57
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    eightzero said:
    I don't need a new iPhone. My 5s works just fine, does everything I need or want.
    thats nice, dear.
    ration alzimmermann
  • Reply 6 of 57
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,708member
    eightzero said:
    I don't need a new iPhone. My 5s works just fine, does everything I need or want.
    Your opinion doesn’t count. Neither does mine. No AI commenter’s opinion counts in matters like this. We’re talking about the mass market and no one here is part of the mass market. This entire AI community is composed of pro and anti biased individuals. There is no objectivity on forums like AI. None, only axes to grind one way or the other. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.
    stevenozbaconstangjay-tration alcropr
  • Reply 7 of 57
    calicali Posts: 3,495member
    I hate when they ask "will you buy" products that haven't been announced or seen by the public. It's stupid.
    rogifan_newTurboPGTbaconstangrusswjay-tration alcnocbui
  • Reply 8 of 57
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    seankill said:
    My iPhone 6+ will be turning 2 but I will hold out for the 2017 iPhone. This year's iPhone might be a nice upgrade but I don't anticipate anything being a must-have to the point its worth 850$. Smartphones are maturing much like the PC market did years ago, its most an evolutionary process except every 5-6 years.
    I agree, my iPhone 6 is turning 2 years old. I have upgraded at least every 2 years since the first iPhone in 2007.  This is the first time I'm considering keeping my current phone past its contract end date.  Apple needs to take some risks and be a bit more aggressive vs play it safe with incremental changes.  
    you guys make it sound like Apple has a hopper of new features, fully-formed, complete, and ready to drop into the phone at any time, but that they dont do it because they want to trick you with incremental improvements. its rather silly. that isnt how product development works. iterative improvement is the name of the game. these things dont design or improve themselves...you have to do the work to get there from here. a year is not a lot of time. thus you see iterative improvements. people would be whining their heads off if apple waited 2-3 years+ between new iphone announcements.
    edited July 2016 ai46lkruppiSRSbrucemcbaconstangfastasleepjay-tration al
  • Reply 9 of 57
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 2,244member
    lkrupp said:
    eightzero said:
    I don't need a new iPhone. My 5s works just fine, does everything I need or want.
    Your opinion doesn’t count. Neither does mine. No AI commenter’s opinion counts in matters like this. We’re talking about the mass market and no one here is part of the mass market. This entire AI community is composed of pro and anti biased individuals. There is no objectivity on forums like AI. None, only axes to grind one way or the other. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.
    Yeah, no idea why I would want to come here at all. Totally worthless.
    king editor the gratebaconstangcnocbui
  • Reply 10 of 57
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 3,774member
    So according to their survey over 50% of current iPhone owners aren't going to upgrade?
  • Reply 11 of 57
    bigdobigdo Posts: 17member
    I will be one the iPhone 6 users upgrading this fall at the end of a 2 year contract. My main reason is that my current iPhone 6 battery life dropped to about half after the iPhone took a hard fall to the ground a few months ago. I think even without damage, battery life on iPhone's begins to deteriorate after 2-3 years. Among other people I know, battery life is often the reason for upgrades.
  • Reply 12 of 57
    Only thing keeping me from upgrading my iPhone is the ATT Next Plan. I want to keep my unlimited Data - and frankly don't want to pay monthly for a Phone. Currently 2 lines unlimited Data - $130 - if I switch to Next Plan it bumps to $150+ and I lose my unlimited data
    baconstang
  • Reply 13 of 57
    larryalarrya Posts: 538member
    Only thing keeping me from upgrading my iPhone is the ATT Next Plan. I want to keep my unlimited Data - and frankly don't want to pay monthly for a Phone. Currently 2 lines unlimited Data - $130 - if I switch to Next Plan it bumps to $150+ and I lose my unlimited data
    Yep. Loss of subsidies has me waiting on breakage or a killer feature. I'm in the same situation as you - AT&T Next plan costs can't touch my grandfathered plan, even without adding any handset payments.  The new stuff now needs to be worth $650+ to me instead of $199. 
  • Reply 14 of 57
    bigdo said:
    I will be one the iPhone 6 users upgrading this fall at the end of a 2 year contract. My main reason is that my current iPhone 6 battery life dropped to about half after the iPhone took a hard fall to the ground a few months ago. I think even without damage, battery life on iPhone's begins to deteriorate after 2-3 years. Among other people I know, battery life is often the reason for upgrades.


    Yeah, the battery life of my iPhone 6 has considerably deteriorated in the last few months. It's only an $80 replacement, which I'm going to do regardless. When it comes to upgrading to the next iPhone, I think I'll base my judgment on the finished product, not a few rumored case leaks. I'd like to know what this phone can actually do before I make up my mind on it. It's quite premature to say this iPhone will be a failure based on the rear shell design.

    nolamacguybaconstangfastasleeppropod
  • Reply 15 of 57
    supadav03supadav03 Posts: 433member
    I have an iPhone 6 Plus. Still works fantastic but I'm will be upgrading to the 7 Plus this fall. With the iPhone Upgrade plan I'm not sure why people wouldn't upgrade yearly now. Probably have Apple out a new battery in my 6 Plus and gift it to my father who's currently using a 5S.
  • Reply 16 of 57
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 8,360member
    eightzero said:
    I don't need a new iPhone. My 5s works just fine, does everything I need or want.
    Good for you!

    I also have an iPhone 5s that I've been waiting to upgrade for months now. It's been impossible, since the iPhone I wanted has been OOS.

    Today is finally the day. I see that iPhone 5 SEs are back in stock in a couple of Apple stores nearby me, so I'll be going to pick one up later on. :#
  • Reply 17 of 57
    iSRSiSRS Posts: 32member
    Only thing keeping me from upgrading my iPhone is the ATT Next Plan. I want to keep my unlimited Data - and frankly don't want to pay monthly for a Phone. Currently 2 lines unlimited Data - $130 - if I switch to Next Plan it bumps to $150+ and I lose my unlimited data
    Just pay full retail without the monthly plan
  • Reply 18 of 57
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,708member
    eightzero said:
    lkrupp said:
    Your opinion doesn’t count. Neither does mine. No AI commenter’s opinion counts in matters like this. We’re talking about the mass market and no one here is part of the mass market. This entire AI community is composed of pro and anti biased individuals. There is no objectivity on forums like AI. None, only axes to grind one way or the other. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.
    Yeah, no idea why I would want to come here at all. Totally worthless.
    For the same reason we all do. To spout bullshit.
    stourque
  • Reply 19 of 57
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 8,360member
    lkrupp said:
    For the same reason we all do. To spout bullshit.
    I come here mainly to battle Fandroids and to make fun of disgusting liberals. :#
    lkrupp
  • Reply 20 of 57
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 8,360member

    iSRS said:
    Only thing keeping me from upgrading my iPhone is the ATT Next Plan. I want to keep my unlimited Data - and frankly don't want to pay monthly for a Phone. Currently 2 lines unlimited Data - $130 - if I switch to Next Plan it bumps to $150+ and I lose my unlimited data
    Just pay full retail without the monthly plan
    Agreed. Screw contract phones. I am paying for my iPhone in full, and I will own it 100%, fully unlocked. :#


    levi
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