Apple's first weekend of iPhone 7 sales roughly in line with earlier iPhones, data suggests

Posted:
in iPhone
The first weekend of iPhone 7 sales seems to have been on track with past iPhone launches, despite Apple's decision not to announce official numbers, according to early analytics data.




The iPhone 7 achieved 1 percent adoption in Localytics tracking of iPhones, with the 7 Plus accounting for another 0.2 percent. That's roughly equivalent to what the iPhone 6s line achieved in Sept. 2015, the only difference being greater adoption of the 6s Plus at 0.3 percent.

The iPhone 6 managed 2 percent in Sept. 2014, with the 6 Plus coming in at 0.3. 2013's iPhone 5s -- which didn't have a Plus model -- hit 0.9 percent during its launch weekend.

Localytics commented that real-world iPhone 7 sales could be significantly higher, since its data only reflects the number of people who already have a device and are using apps. Delivery times for online preorders quickly extended into weeks or even months, an Apple took the unusual step of saying that some models wouldn't be available at stores on launch day.




Meanwhile, upgrades of existing iPhones and iPads to iOS 10 appear to be flattening out. While Mixpanel indicated that adoption hit nearly 15 percent in the first 24 hours, after six days, iOS 10 was sitting at 26 percent -- slightly lower than what iOS 8 and 9 achieved in similar timeframes.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 27
    I'd like to see Weekend 2 numbers. Tons of Jet Black being shipped this week that will be activated (including mine, which arrives Wed or Thu!).


    (Off-topic: I had something weird happen for the first time ever, with an Apple product shipment. I took advantage of the ATT promo to return my son's 6 for a free 7. The Fedex 'delivery' arrived last Friday, but there was a peculiar note from the delivery guy: it said, "go to the Fedex office to pick it up". I did, the person at the Fedex office brought over my box: it was opened..... with no phone inside! I was told that "...it probably fell off." I've been wasting time with ATT and Fedex these past couple of days, and finally they told me that a new one will be on its way in "7-10 days.")
    edited September 2016
  • Reply 2 of 27
    calicali Posts: 3,495member
    I'd like to see Weekend 2 numbers. Tons of Jet Black being shipped this week that will be activated (including mine, which arrives Wed or Thu!).


    (Off-topic: I had something weird happen for the first time ever, with an Apple product shipment. I took advantage of the ATT promo to return my son's 6 for a free 7. The Fedex 'delivery' arrived last Friday, but there was a peculiar note from the delivery guy: it said, "go to the Fedex office to pick it up". I did, the person at the Fedex office brought over my box: it was opened..... with no phone inside! I was told that "...it probably fell off." I've been wasting time with ATT and Fedex these past couple of days, and finally they told me that a new one will be on its way in "7-10 days.")
    Someone stole it. You should sue the pants off them for handing you an open box.
    Deelronstanhopelmagooredgeminipa
  • Reply 3 of 27

    I think that data will be much better once all of the people who are preordered and reserved actually receive their devices. But since those numbers probably won't count towards opening weekend numbers, I guess it won't matter much. Still, not bad sales figures for a device that isn't even widely available.

    And for iOS 10 adoption rates, those numbers are crazy impressive. To have over a 1/4 of your installed worldwide user base all on the newest version in under a week has to say something about Apple's software. That's roughly 260,000,000 devices in less than 7 days. The real story should be that Apple can sustain these numbers year after year despite a rapidly growing user base.

    caligilly017radarthekatbrucemcredgeminipawatto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 27
    A similar "data eduction" was made last September with the 6S. The % of users for a new handset is only relevant if there is a 1-for-1 trade in. When the user base grows at 45% the way it did with the 6, the next year's number will likely be a smaller % compared to previous launches.
  • Reply 5 of 27
    I pre-ordered my iphone 7+ just I did was iphone6/5/4/3G, right at the beginning of pre-order every time, but for the first time ever, I don't have a new iPhone in my hand... and yes, they charged my credit card... so sales is technically 'through' (iphone has been en-route since Friday).
    redgeminipa
  • Reply 6 of 27
    Wait for the iPhone 7S. Word on the street is that it is exactly like the 7, but they're adding an audio jack :smiley: 
    larryamac-daddy
  • Reply 7 of 27
    calicali Posts: 3,495member
    Wait for the iPhone 7S. Word on the street is that it is exactly like the 7, but they're adding an audio jack :smiley: 
    Yes word on the street knows everything.

    not sure if stupid, trolling or sarcasm. Can't tell anymore.
    williamlondongilly017stanhoperedgeminipawatto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 27
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 8,652member
    Extremely flawed data.

    It shows only those people that already have gotten their phones and have used it already.

    What about all those people who are waiting weeks and months for their phone to arrive.


    redgeminipawatto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 27
    levilevi Posts: 344member
    The only thing this tells us is that iPhone 7 did about as well as other iPhone in terms of opening weekend sales - as the title suggests. As many have pointed out, each generation comes online with a larger user base. We also don't know how many are in que for shipment. 
    redgeminipawatto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 27
    cali said:
    I'd like to see Weekend 2 numbers. Tons of Jet Black being shipped this week that will be activated (including mine, which arrives Wed or Thu!).


    (Off-topic: I had something weird happen for the first time ever, with an Apple product shipment. I took advantage of the ATT promo to return my son's 6 for a free 7. The Fedex 'delivery' arrived last Friday, but there was a peculiar note from the delivery guy: it said, "go to the Fedex office to pick it up". I did, the person at the Fedex office brought over my box: it was opened..... with no phone inside! I was told that "...it probably fell off." I've been wasting time with ATT and Fedex these past couple of days, and finally they told me that a new one will be on its way in "7-10 days.")
    Someone stole it. You should sue the pants off them for handing you an open box.
    You can't sue them because you never signed and therefore never took receipt. It's up to either AT&T or Apple, whoever shipped it, to make an insurance claim for the lost item. It's about when ownership changes hands. Trust me, you prefer it this way. Otherwise every time somebody ships you something it will have been considered that you took receipt at the time they shipped it.
    gilly017stanhopegatorguy
  • Reply 11 of 27
    I'd like to see Weekend 2 numbers. Tons of Jet Black being shipped this week that will be activated (including mine, which arrives Wed or Thu!).


    (Off-topic: I had something weird happen for the first time ever, with an Apple product shipment. I took advantage of the ATT promo to return my son's 6 for a free 7. The Fedex 'delivery' arrived last Friday, but there was a peculiar note from the delivery guy: it said, "go to the Fedex office to pick it up". I did, the person at the Fedex office brought over my box: it was opened..... with no phone inside! I was told that "...it probably fell off." I've been wasting time with ATT and Fedex these past couple of days, and finally they told me that a new one will be on its way in "7-10 days.")
    Yep. Someone stole it. I ordered my 7 plus through Apple using AT&T Next program. It's been shipped directly to my address. I'm praying nothing like that happens. Hope the package gives no hints there is an iPhone inside. Shipping time is 2-3 weeks. 
  • Reply 12 of 27
    focher said:
    cali said:
    I'd like to see Weekend 2 numbers. Tons of Jet Black being shipped this week that will be activated (including mine, which arrives Wed or Thu!).


    (Off-topic: I had something weird happen for the first time ever, with an Apple product shipment. I took advantage of the ATT promo to return my son's 6 for a free 7. The Fedex 'delivery' arrived last Friday, but there was a peculiar note from the delivery guy: it said, "go to the Fedex office to pick it up". I did, the person at the Fedex office brought over my box: it was opened..... with no phone inside! I was told that "...it probably fell off." I've been wasting time with ATT and Fedex these past couple of days, and finally they told me that a new one will be on its way in "7-10 days.")
    Someone stole it. You should sue the pants off them for handing you an open box.
    You can't sue them because you never signed and therefore never took receipt. It's up to either AT&T or Apple, whoever shipped it, to make an insurance claim for the lost item. It's about when ownership changes hands. Trust me, you prefer it this way. Otherwise every time somebody ships you something it will have been considered that you took receipt at the time they shipped it.
    You have a point. I did notice the option to sign ahead of time for the device in case you are not personally there to receive the item. Didn't think that was a good idea. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 27
    sog35 said:
    UHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.............you need to take into account the larger user base from the iPhone7, 6s, and 6.

    There were far less active iPhones when the 6 came out 2 years ago.
    Exactly.  Localytics is only giving us half the story.

    To be a percent, it must be a percent of some known value.  In this case that known value would be the active iPhone installed base.  The problem iwht Localytics numbers are they do not reference the active iPhone installed base their percentages were calculated against,

    In the past 2 years Apple's active iPhone installed base has grown about 60% (reference point being the active iPhone installed base through the iPhone 5S).  Actual numbers of first weekend sales would, by definition, be 60% higher today than they were for the iPhone 6 launch (even if the rate were the same) because the active installed base is 60% larger.

    I have been posting for a month that total iPhone units sold during the December quarter will be about 91.960 million.  I have seen nothing to sway me from that estimate, to the contrary, I've seen several credible reports that support that estimate.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 27
    gilly017 said:
    I'd like to see Weekend 2 numbers. Tons of Jet Black being shipped this week that will be activated (including mine, which arrives Wed or Thu!).


    (Off-topic: I had something weird happen for the first time ever, with an Apple product shipment. I took advantage of the ATT promo to return my son's 6 for a free 7. The Fedex 'delivery' arrived last Friday, but there was a peculiar note from the delivery guy: it said, "go to the Fedex office to pick it up". I did, the person at the Fedex office brought over my box: it was opened..... with no phone inside! I was told that "...it probably fell off." I've been wasting time with ATT and Fedex these past couple of days, and finally they told me that a new one will be on its way in "7-10 days.")
    Yep. Someone stole it. I ordered my 7 plus through Apple using AT&T Next program. It's been shipped directly to my address. I'm praying nothing like that happens. Hope the package gives no hints there is an iPhone inside. Shipping time is 2-3 weeks. 
    The crooks are savvy enough now to know disguised return addresses and the size of the box.  
    redgeminipa
  • Reply 15 of 27
    cali said:
    I'd like to see Weekend 2 numbers. Tons of Jet Black being shipped this week that will be activated (including mine, which arrives Wed or Thu!).


    (Off-topic: I had something weird happen for the first time ever, with an Apple product shipment. I took advantage of the ATT promo to return my son's 6 for a free 7. The Fedex 'delivery' arrived last Friday, but there was a peculiar note from the delivery guy: it said, "go to the Fedex office to pick it up". I did, the person at the Fedex office brought over my box: it was opened..... with no phone inside! I was told that "...it probably fell off." I've been wasting time with ATT and Fedex these past couple of days, and finally they told me that a new one will be on its way in "7-10 days.")
    Someone stole it. You should sue the pants off them for handing you an open box.
    You can't sue if it is insured and a replacement is coming. Besides a lawsuit would cost ten times a new phone. 
    nolamacguy
  • Reply 16 of 27
    In business if you are not growing you are dying. There will be a point when growth by leaps and bounds will stop, this may be that time. 
  • Reply 17 of 27
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,050moderator
    sog35 said:
    UHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.............you need to take into account the larger user base from the iPhone7, 6s, and 6.

    There were far less active iPhones when the 6 came out 2 years ago.
    Exactly.  Localytics is only giving us half the story.

    To be a percent, it must be a percent of some known value.  In this case that known value would be the active iPhone installed base.  The problem iwht Localytics numbers are they do not reference the active iPhone installed base their percentages were calculated against,

    In the past 2 years Apple's active iPhone installed base has grown about 60% (reference point being the active iPhone installed base through the iPhone 5S).  Actual numbers of first weekend sales would, by definition, be 60% higher today than they were for the iPhone 6 launch (even if the rate were the same) because the active installed base is 60% larger.

    I have been posting for a month that total iPhone units sold during the December quarter will be about 91.960 million.  I have seen nothing to sway me from that estimate, to the contrary, I've seen several credible reports that support that estimate.
    Yup, and this is a 14-week holiday quarter for Apple.  First one since calendar 2011 (fiscal 2012 Q1).  That extra week represents a quarter 7.69% longer than a 13-week quarter.  Nobody has reported on that yet.  Just another example of how a savvy individual investor, focused intently on only a few businesses, can know more than the supposed professional analysts, who typically follow dozens of businesses.

    Remember how the analysts, back in January 2013, derided Apple's fiscal 2013 Q1 because the company reported only $13.2b in profits, flat year over year against fiscal 2012 Q1, which was also $13.2b?  Well, the 2013 Q1 was back down to the normal 13-week quarter, after 2012 Q1's 14-week quarter.  That fact was either ignored or outright missed.  Idiots! 
    edited September 2016 gregg thurmananantksundaramredgeminipawatto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 27

    I think that data will be much better once all of the people who are preordered and reserved actually receive their devices. But since those numbers probably won't count towards opening weekend numbers, I guess it won't matter much. Still, not bad sales figures for a device that isn't even widely available.

    And for iOS 10 adoption rates, those numbers are crazy impressive. To have over a 1/4 of your installed worldwide user base all on the newest version in under a week has to say something about Apple's software. That's roughly 260,000,000 devices in less than 7 days. The real story should be that Apple can sustain these numbers year after year despite a rapidly growing user base.

    Pre-orders already count towards opening weekend sales as they were already purchased.
  • Reply 19 of 27
    We have 2 iPads not capable of upgrading to ios10. Must be time for at least one new one.
    pscooter63watto_cobra
  • Reply 20 of 27
    Dracarys said:

    I think that data will be much better once all of the people who are preordered and reserved actually receive their devices. But since those numbers probably won't count towards opening weekend numbers, I guess it won't matter much. Still, not bad sales figures for a device that isn't even widely available.

    And for iOS 10 adoption rates, those numbers are crazy impressive. To have over a 1/4 of your installed worldwide user base all on the newest version in under a week has to say something about Apple's software. That's roughly 260,000,000 devices in less than 7 days. The real story should be that Apple can sustain these numbers year after year despite a rapidly growing user base.

    Pre-orders already count towards opening weekend sales as they were already purchased.
    You're wrong. 

    (You didn't read the article, did you?)
    redgeminipa
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