KGI: iPhone 7 won't sell as well as the iPhone 6s
Contrary to remarks by carriers, one analyst firm is increasing how many iPhone 7 family devices that it thinks Apple will sell before the end of the year, but still expects fewer sales than the iPhone 6s garnered in 2015.
According to research provided to AppleInsider by KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the research firm has escalated its sales estimates from 65 million to between 70 million and 75 million, mostly because of the recall of the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 and the dual-camera feature in the iPhone 7 Plus.
However, the analyst firm believes artificial scarcity explains carrier reports of sell-outs and strong consumer demand, with both factors "not entirely due to market demand." KGI points to market share gains from carriers due to promotions inflating numbers, as well as a larger amount of launch countries spreading out stocks leading to depleted inventories world-wide.
Kuo points to low yields on the jet black casing, between 60 and 70 percent, as another reason for low stock of the desired iPhone 7 Plus. KGI is suggesting investors take profit now on near-term stock highs.
On Sept. 20, multiple South Korean analysts had a different viewpoint. In a combined report, Song Eun-jeong from Hi Investment & Securities believed that Apple can seize the top position in the premium smartphone market on the strength of the carrier promotions that KGI derided.
In the same report, IBK Investment & Securities analyst Lee Seung-woo revealed that South Korean suppliers had orders for components to build 80 to 85 million iPhone 7 units pre-launch, with an increase of 17 percent to 25 percent recently, pushing quantities over 100 million phones before the end of the year.
T-Mobile Chief Executive John Legere declared demand for the iPhone 7 a "phenomenon," and said that preorders up to Sept. 12 had been "like four times bigger than the iPhone 6."
According to research provided to AppleInsider by KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the research firm has escalated its sales estimates from 65 million to between 70 million and 75 million, mostly because of the recall of the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 and the dual-camera feature in the iPhone 7 Plus.
However, the analyst firm believes artificial scarcity explains carrier reports of sell-outs and strong consumer demand, with both factors "not entirely due to market demand." KGI points to market share gains from carriers due to promotions inflating numbers, as well as a larger amount of launch countries spreading out stocks leading to depleted inventories world-wide.
Kuo points to low yields on the jet black casing, between 60 and 70 percent, as another reason for low stock of the desired iPhone 7 Plus. KGI is suggesting investors take profit now on near-term stock highs.
On Sept. 20, multiple South Korean analysts had a different viewpoint. In a combined report, Song Eun-jeong from Hi Investment & Securities believed that Apple can seize the top position in the premium smartphone market on the strength of the carrier promotions that KGI derided.
In the same report, IBK Investment & Securities analyst Lee Seung-woo revealed that South Korean suppliers had orders for components to build 80 to 85 million iPhone 7 units pre-launch, with an increase of 17 percent to 25 percent recently, pushing quantities over 100 million phones before the end of the year.
T-Mobile Chief Executive John Legere declared demand for the iPhone 7 a "phenomenon," and said that preorders up to Sept. 12 had been "like four times bigger than the iPhone 6."
Comments
Heck we we cold even invent a new kind of fantasy football of Apple predictions: pick your dream team of analysts/charlatans.
The number they were floating initially was 80-100M...
the 6s sold 80M I think and 78M for the 6, mostly because the China sales were displaced to after the new years.
The numbers will likely be close to 6s, maybe slightly higher with a much higher ASP (128G 7+ being in such demand).
He is a secretive guy, rarely gives interviews and talks behind doors it seems. We now know that he hates being wrong.
Nah. I think your critical reading skills were a little off here.
The exact quote is "the research firm has escalated its sales estimates from 65 million to between 70 million and 75 million, mostly because of the recall of the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 and the dual-camera feature in the iPhone 7 Plus. "
Key points:
Escalated sales estimates..... mostly because of.....recall.....and the dual camera.
You arbitrarily try to say that the 1.5 million Note 7s sold and recalled don't add up to the additional estimated 10 million sales for iPhone; and therefore it's bullshit. Well, yes and no. Here's why.
In one sense, obviously not all 1.5 million ppl who bought Note 7s are instead buying the iPhone 7 because of the recall (Samsung actually said 90% of customers who comply with the recall stick with the free replacement Note 7.) Still, that other 10% doesn't account for the extra 10 million iPhone sales. Duh. So this leads to the next point.
In another sense, the Note 7 had been released for like what, 2 weeks, before the issues were reported and later the recall was announced? How many more people would've bought the Note 7 if they weren't exploding and being recalled? Once the reports went mainstream, then the international news about the explosions, then national and international recalls, warnings from the FCC, airlines, US government, foreign governments...... you could argue that this deterred potential future buyers of the Note 7.
A third point is the aforementioned dual camera. Other phones have dual cameras, sure. But iPhone is by far more popular and revered by the general public as a "gold standard"; whether or not you agree the historic sales say they are the most popular. HTC One M8, LG G5, Huawei P9 have dual cameras but do not sell like the iPhone and the vast majority of people outside the tech world don't know they exist. "Everyone" knows the iPhone brand. So that brings in more iPhone buyers interested because of the "new" dual lens camera.
So to recap:
1) People switching away from their Note 7 due to the recall
2) Potential future Note 7 buyers deterred from buying it because of the recall
3) Dual lens camera attracting people away from Note 7 that doesn't have it
4) "Mostly because of". The report says mostly. Keyword mostly. What is mostly, it's 51% or more. Could be 95% or could be 51% of the reason for increased estimates. They didn't specify. So there are obviously more factors that weren't mentioned that are attributable to the increase in estimates.
You can't just say "So instead of admiting you were fuking wrong, you make an excuse that iPhone7 is selling well because of Note7 failure."
Well yes. But also not in the way you expressed it; that's not quite what he or the report said. That's not well thought out nor does it include the nuances in what was actually written. I think you're mad and seeing red; I've done that too sometimes. It's hard to admit, I know. It sucks.
For me, just watch the ride. At the earliest, it will be around the year 2030 when I'll sell some of the stock I own. Even then, I might convert it. I don't agree with the management of Apple regarding certain issues but because of the simplicity of the Mac and iOS devices, my heart is with Apple.
I think AI should tell us a bit more about the process by which Kuo arrived at his estimate of demand, more than just "Kuo thinks..." Until then, I'll assume that it is utter bullshit.
They chose to deliver a refined iPhone 6 and take the heat. For that I give major props to Cook. He has balls.
The home button on 7 feels weird. 6s feels more natural.
Definitely not recommending 7 to anyone... I'd just tell them to get 6s.
I know diamonds have an artificial scarcity- I doubt apple is doing that.