Apple has long-term plan, is working on products 'way out in the 2020s'

24

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 73
    It's crazy that Tim even needs to say publicly that they're working on product into the 2020's.  Does anyone think they just pull off new products each year with a 9-12 month window for anything new?  Even iPhone S updates are more than a year's development cycle.
    StrangeDayscornchip
  • Reply 22 of 73
    Well, duh.
  • Reply 23 of 73
    rfrmac said:
    Sorry, this means little to me.  Anything passed 5 years is just guess work or nice to haves.  Things are changing too fast for anything longer to make any sense.  Apple's upping it's R&D budget and continues to make acquisitions that I hope change things a great deal.  Others are not standing still either.  I don't care about VR much, what I care about is speed and quality.  I hope there are no more "hobbies" in any of their plans.  Do it, do it right, keep it up to date until you have something else that is really better.  People get depended on products in their work flow and Apple doesn't seem to care about that. , 

    It means little to you translates to:  'I'm the only Market Apple should Care about, spend money on my requirements"

    I'd be more surprized/shocked to hear the exact opposite ("Apple has no plans past 2019")   The lead times for 'insanely great' HW&SW integration is measured in years, not months, and especially 90 day financial quarters.    

    At this point... your 'faster' Mac/iDevice for 2019 is probably 'designed' on the inside, and 2020 is probably being prototyped in computational models.  And that's for stuff we know about.  Wearables (glasses are going to be a thing...  just when and where...   When does "Apple Watch" turn into "Apple Undershirt" (All I need is a LTE connection, airpods that vibrate  for notifications, and body interface).   When does your iPhone/iPad become just a 'brick' in your wallet, and a wireless  Pad of various sizes is supplied as the interface, with a pencil.  Why not extend the watch/airpod model and go back to modular computing, all you need to do is lay all your equipment in a wireless 'bin' and have it recharge over night (or charge from the light electrical energy from your body (ala the matrix).
    I hope they are thinking 10 years out....to 'where the puck will be...' [as a hockey fan, the real Gretzky gift was  not in the fact he skated to where the puck would be, but he and his Oiler line/Coaches could strategize their skating a couple of shift changes ahead...]

    Hobbies at a corporate level is probably better than allowing 200,000 employees to spend 20% of their time working on 'hobbies.'  As you can explore capabilities while the market matures, and have already 'been there done that' and understand the pitfalls of particular paths of solution (or started moving the base technologies to a point where your hobby work tells you where the optimal intersection work will be).   

    Even building a faster Mac/iPhone requires years of effort to do it profitably (can they stick a CRAY 8 on a chip and make your phone faster... maybe, but it's likely not going to matter much if the touch screen response doesn't align well with the CPU speed... it's the 'system,' stupid.).  Like 64bit processing... Apple didn't need to do that, but it basically paved the way to ARKit and FaceID stuff, and it got all the bus pathways laid out 2 years before the real 'heavy duty traffic' passed through the pipes.  Did it speed up the iPhone 6 and 7... yes... but did most people need 64 bit CPUs ... no.


    StrangeDaysspliff monkey
  • Reply 24 of 73
    rfrmac said:
    Sorry, this means little to me.  Anything passed 5 years is just guess work or nice to haves.  Things are changing too fast for anything longer to make any sense.  Apple's upping it's R&D budget and continues to make acquisitions that I hope change things a great deal.  Others are not standing still either.  I don't care about VR much, what I care about is speed and quality.  I hope there are no more "hobbies" in any of their plans.  Do it, do it right, keep it up to date until you have something else that is really better.  People get depended on products in their work flow and Apple doesn't seem to care about that. , 
    Do the math.  Most of "well into the 2020s" is within the 5 five years.  Of course Apple needs to have long term plans, they don't just deliver "speed and quality" (whatever that means), they delivery solutions.
    StrangeDaysAirunJaecornchipargonaut
  • Reply 25 of 73
    cgWerkscgWerks Posts: 2,273member
    AppleInsider said:
    "More generally, if you look at America, the 90-day clock [quarterly results] is a negative," he expanded. "Why would you ever measure a business on 90 days when its investments are long term?"
    ...

    "What's happening if you look under the sheets, which we probably don't let people do, is that we start projects years before they come out," Cook said. "You could take every one of our products -- iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch -- they weren't the first, but they were the first modern one, right?

    "In each case, if you look at when we started, I would guess that we started much before other people did, but we took our time to get it right. Because we don't believe in using our customers as a laboratory. What we have that I think is unique is patience. We have patience to wait until something is great before we ship it."

    ...

    "I think it's important for artists," he said. "If we're going to continue to have a great creative community, [artists] have to be funded."
    Yes, this first statement is true, because unfortunately, the stock markets aren't about investment, really. They have become a form of legitimized gambling for the wealthy, and a money-suck replacement for social security for the rest.

    And, other companies don't start on their products before they release them? Is Cook trying to act like they've been working on a smart-speaker before Amazon, Google, etc? I'm calling baloney on that one. And, yes, they often improve on a product category... but "don't believe in using our customers as a laboratory" is getting a bit thin as a claim these days. And, notice he said 'great' before we ship it, not 'right'. Sneaky, Tim.

    And, what about the content creators? Are they as important as the artists? Then, how about some investment in Apple products that might not be profit centers, but are still crucial? Or, is it just musicians where you don't care about money? In the video version of the interview, did Tim jump out of his chair and do a quick break-dance routine? (Of course, then I guess the diversity department would haul him off for cultural appropriation, seeing as they are so tolerant and inclusive.)

    Sorry, folks, it's getting kinda thick in here. Beyond that first statement, the rest was first-class marketing fluff.

    Why don't other CEO's sound as lucid and thoughtful as Tim?
    You mean, laying on the BS in a very eloquent manner? I'm not sure we *want* other CEOs (nor Apple's) to have that skill.
    Steve was also pretty good, I suppose, but he was also able to deliver.
    gatorguymuthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 26 of 73

    "The priorities are about saying no to a bunch of great ideas. We can do more things than we used to do because we're a bit bigger. But in the scheme of things versus our revenue, we're doing very few things," said Cook. "I mean, you could put every product we're making on this table, to put it in perspective. I doubt anybody that is anywhere near our revenue could say that."
    How big was the table??  Was he in a board room, where a couple of cars would fit on the table or just in his office?  Here he is dropping these major clues and we don't have all the facts!   /s
    king editor the grate
  • Reply 27 of 73
    sflocal said:
    It's news when Apple stops investing in R&D.  This is a fluff-piece.

    No doubt some could call the original article a fluff-piece. Nevertheless, it is newsworthy, because it offers some insight into the company and its leadership. If it was me, I'd grill Tim a bit more, about some troubles over the past few months, but that wasn't the tone of the interview. Real fluff-pieces are those articles, about some products, that are "good"—not great—and fail to address the elephant in the room, for the sake of personal/editorial agendas. Most Android enthusiasts would call us, Apple users and AI readers, fanboys being spoon fed fluff-pieces about Apple. But even though the tone in AI is more positive towards Apple than most publications, in more than 10 years reading it daily, I fail to remember even seeing a single fluff-piece.
    cgWerks
  • Reply 28 of 73
    AI_lias said:
    We're not using our customers are a laboratory: BS. Siri came out as beta, when it first came out. Something else: iPhone X, they made the decision to come out with it while it was still planned for 2018, not 2017, in their own admission. It does feel like almost a beta, or a "concept" phone, like they have "concept cars" at car shows. So, that being said, can't wait for all the pent up updates about to come out, especially for Mac (mini, Pro) and iPad.
    Yeah no. That isn’t what they “admitted” — what they said at launch was, they expected Face ID to take longer than it did, and since it was ready they made the decision (a year ago) to use it. I don’t have the exact dates and neither do you. 

    The X doesn’t feel like a beta, it’s the best iphone I’ve ever owned and I’ve had all but the first. I’d bet you don’t even have it.
    randominternetpersonpscooter63cornchipfarmboy
  • Reply 29 of 73
    cgWerks said:
    AppleInsider said:
    "More generally, if you look at America, the 90-day clock [quarterly results] is a negative," he expanded. "Why would you ever measure a business on 90 days when its investments are long term?"
    ...

    "What's happening if you look under the sheets, which we probably don't let people do, is that we start projects years before they come out," Cook said. "You could take every one of our products -- iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch -- they weren't the first, but they were the first modern one, right?

    "In each case, if you look at when we started, I would guess that we started much before other people did, but we took our time to get it right. Because we don't believe in using our customers as a laboratory. What we have that I think is unique is patience. We have patience to wait until something is great before we ship it."

    ...

    "I think it's important for artists," he said. "If we're going to continue to have a great creative community, [artists] have to be funded."
    Yes, this first statement is true, because unfortunately, the stock markets aren't about investment, really. They have become a form of legitimized gambling for the wealthy, and a money-suck replacement for social security for the rest.

    And, other companies don't start on their products before they release them? Is Cook trying to act like they've been working on a smart-speaker before Amazon, Google, etc? I'm calling baloney on that one. And, yes, they often improve on a product category... but "don't believe in using our customers as a laboratory" is getting a bit thin as a claim these days. And, notice he said 'great' before we ship it, not 'right'. Sneaky, Tim.

    And, what about the content creators? Are they as important as the artists? Then, how about some investment in Apple products that might not be profit centers, but are still crucial? Or, is it just musicians where you don't care about money? In the video version of the interview, did Tim jump out of his chair and do a quick break-dance routine? (Of course, then I guess the diversity department would haul him off for cultural appropriation, seeing as they are so tolerant and inclusive.)

    Sorry, folks, it's getting kinda thick in here. Beyond that first statement, the rest was first-class marketing fluff.

    Why don't other CEO's sound as lucid and thoughtful as Tim?
    You mean, laying on the BS in a very eloquent manner? I'm not sure we *want* other CEOs (nor Apple's) to have that skill.
    Steve was also pretty good, I suppose, but he was also able to deliver.
    You really think Amazon and Google were working on their smart speakers before 2014?  That sounds like baloney to me.  http://appleinsider.com/articles/17/11/21/apple-allegedly-dithered-over-homepod-development-canceled-restarted-project

    And in what bizarro world is "right" considered better than "great"?  He wasn't be "sneaky."
    edited February 2018 StrangeDayspscooter63
  • Reply 30 of 73

    I get what he's saying but hate that he feels the need to virtue signal to socialists in society by saying Apple isn't in it for the money. 
    That’s all in your head. Seek help. 

    Apple has long said they focus on design product confident that the profit will follow. Many other companies do not do this and design to profit first.
    cornchip
  • Reply 31 of 73
    lkrupp said:
    spice-boy said:
    How bout making Siri work properly. 
    Last night in my home office. “Alexa, turn off the porch light.” (Echo lights flickering, ten seconds go by) “I’m sorry, the porch light is not responding.” “Hey Siri, turn off the porch light.” Light goes out. “Okay.” So you can keep your false narrative about Echo being the be-all end-all perfect digital assistant and how Siri sucks.
    Yeah. My take from what I've read is they all are still in their infancy, and none of them of anywhere near contextually smart. Right now they just perform simple items to varying degrees of success.
  • Reply 32 of 73
    Owing to Apple's laziness, Siri ended up the most stupid digital assistant despite Apple having the means and time to put Siri out in front. That's what happens when a wealthy company doesn't give a damn about a product. You would think that when a product is around for as long as Siri was, improvements would have been in steady jumps. Maybe Apple simply didn't understand the importance of having a highly-intelligent digital assistant. Apple would have been able to put Siri on iPhones, MacBooks, iPads, iMacs and Mac Pro devices but apparently Apple didn't see the purpose in that. Apple would have had plenty of feedback in areas Siri needed to be developed but Apple completely missed its chance.

     Apple should feel downright embarrassed to have the worst digital assistant of them all. Apple must have no pride at all. If I were in Tim Cook's shoes, I'd run right out and acquire some top company leading in AI to step things up a notch or two for Siri. Either that or acquire some huge database of facts that Siri would be able to look up almost anything. If Siri requires a supercomputer for speed and intelligence then Apple better get one for every data center it has. Siri doesn't have to be the best, but with Apple's resources it damn sure shouldn't be considered the worst.  Apple better have a Siri II in the pipeline at this rate.  A lot of those R&D dollars need to be headed for improving Siri.  Amazon is just basically kicking Apple's butt with Alexa which is just so sad from an Apple fan's point of view.
    edited February 2018
  • Reply 33 of 73
    lkrupp said:
    lkrupp said:
    spice-boy said:
    How bout making Siri work properly. 
    Last night in my home office. “Alexa, turn off the porch light.” (Echo lights flickering, ten seconds go by) “I’m sorry, the porch light is not responding.” “Hey Siri, turn off the porch light.” Light goes out. “Okay.” So you can keep your false narrative about Echo being the be-all end-all perfect digital assistant and how Siri sucks.
    I would never purchase an Echo, but I was watching classic boxing and asked Siri, "When did Mike Tyson fight Dominic Boyd. It answered, "The Seahawks and the Bengals game was on October 11, 2015 at noon." I corrected my question and asked, "When did Mike Tyson fight Lorenzo Boyd. It answered, "Which team?" and offered me Andorra World Cup Qualifiers or DSL Astros Blue.

    I don't believe there is a perfect digital assistant, but I'd like one that didn't make me laugh or curse before opening Safari to googlerize my question.
    I just asked Alexa your question word for word. Alexa’s response? “I’m not sure.” I have an Echo Dot and my iPhone sitting on its charger next to each other and I’m here to tell you that they’re not that far apart AI wise.
    Cool! Thank you! That makes me feel better as a user/shareholder. I think sometimes I'd prefer an answer of "I'm not sure," but Siri has become an amusing dinner companion. I'll say I'm going to look something up, and wifey says, "Please don't use Siri," but I do anyway, and about half the time the answer makes us both laugh.
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 34 of 73
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,894member
    cgWerks said:
    AppleInsider said:
    "More generally, if you look at America, the 90-day clock [quarterly results] is a negative," he expanded. "Why would you ever measure a business on 90 days when its investments are long term?"
    ...

    "What's happening if you look under the sheets, which we probably don't let people do, is that we start projects years before they come out," Cook said. "You could take every one of our products -- iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch -- they weren't the first, but they were the first modern one, right?

    "In each case, if you look at when we started, I would guess that we started much before other people did, but we took our time to get it right. Because we don't believe in using our customers as a laboratory. What we have that I think is unique is patience. We have patience to wait until something is great before we ship it."

    ...

    "I think it's important for artists," he said. "If we're going to continue to have a great creative community, [artists] have to be funded."
    Yes, this first statement is true, because unfortunately, the stock markets aren't about investment, really. They have become a form of legitimized gambling for the wealthy, and a money-suck replacement for social security for the rest.

    And, other companies don't start on their products before they release them? Is Cook trying to act like they've been working on a smart-speaker before Amazon, Google, etc? I'm calling baloney on that one. And, yes, they often improve on a product category... but "don't believe in using our customers as a laboratory" is getting a bit thin as a claim these days. And, notice he said 'great' before we ship it, not 'right'. Sneaky, Tim.

    And, what about the content creators? Are they as important as the artists? Then, how about some investment in Apple products that might not be profit centers, but are still crucial? Or, is it just musicians where you don't care about money? In the video version of the interview, did Tim jump out of his chair and do a quick break-dance routine? (Of course, then I guess the diversity department would haul him off for cultural appropriation, seeing as they are so tolerant and inclusive.)

    Sorry, folks, it's getting kinda thick in here. Beyond that first statement, the rest was first-class marketing fluff.

    Why don't other CEO's sound as lucid and thoughtful as Tim?
    You mean, laying on the BS in a very eloquent manner? I'm not sure we *want* other CEOs (nor Apple's) to have that skill.
    Steve was also pretty good, I suppose, but he was also able to deliver.
    You really think Amazon and Google were working on their smart speakers before 2014?  That sounds like baloney to me. 
    Yup, I do.
    https://patents.google.com/?q=audio&assignee=Google+Inc.
    cgWerksmuthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 35 of 73
    lkrupp said:
    spice-boy said:
    How bout making Siri work properly. 
    Last night in my home office. “Alexa, turn off the porch light.” (Echo lights flickering, ten seconds go by) “I’m sorry, the porch light is not responding.” “Hey Siri, turn off the porch light.” Light goes out. “Okay.” So you can keep your false narrative about Echo being the be-all end-all perfect digital assistant and how Siri sucks.
    Far more evidence everywhere that Siri is behind and lacking than Alexa or Google Assistant. Practically everyone including Apple lovers say Siri isn’t as good. 

    Thats not what the consensus is AT ALL. The consensus seems to be that each assistant is good at certain things, but not others. Siri seems to be the best assistant with the most commands specific to scheduling, making notes and other office-y stuff, but fails on more whimsical searches and non specific tasks. Ok Google obviously works well with google searches and music commands, but it’s a terrible assistant. Alexa is a terrible assistant, but fantastic if you want to buy amazon products. 

    I recently had the privilege of received a challenge from my friends who each swore their assistant was the better. I happily joined in the demonstration and had a great laugh as each one had to repeat commands or fail completely to execute. The conclusion? They all have weaknesses and each is optimized for the service it’s attached to. 

    Ya’ll need to stop complaining about AI assistants which more than 5 years ago basically didn’t exist in the consumer market and stop acting like it’s something we are dependent on. We don’t. They are all a gimmick except for a few specific use cases. Sometime in the future another 5- 10 years down the line maybe they’ll be as good as we all hope. 
    StrangeDayscharlesgresrandominternetpersonmmatz
  • Reply 36 of 73
    cgWerks said:
    AppleInsider said:
    "More generally, if you look at America, the 90-day clock [quarterly results] is a negative," he expanded. "Why would you ever measure a business on 90 days when its investments are long term?"
    ...

    "What's happening if you look under the sheets, which we probably don't let people do, is that we start projects years before they come out," Cook said. "You could take every one of our products -- iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch -- they weren't the first, but they were the first modern one, right?

    "In each case, if you look at when we started, I would guess that we started much before other people did, but we took our time to get it right. Because we don't believe in using our customers as a laboratory. What we have that I think is unique is patience. We have patience to wait until something is great before we ship it."

    ...

    "I think it's important for artists," he said. "If we're going to continue to have a great creative community, [artists] have to be funded."
    And, other companies don't start on their products before they release them? Is Cook trying to act like they've been working on a smart-speaker before Amazon, Google, etc? I'm calling baloney on that one. And, yes, they often improve on a product category... but "don't believe in using our customers as a laboratory" is getting a bit thin as a claim these days. And, notice he said 'great' before we ship it, not 'right'. Sneaky, Tim.

    Why don't other CEO's sound as lucid and thoughtful as Tim?
    You mean, laying on the BS in a very eloquent manner? I'm not sure we *want* other CEOs (nor Apple's) to have that skill.
    Steve was also pretty good, I suppose, but he was also able to deliver.
    What nonsense. Cook isn't "trying to act" anything. He's suggesting they began work on HP before Echo but he can't know that as fact and doesn't claim to. 

    And getting it "right" isn't something that happens in one single product. Was the original iPhone "right", or was it "great"? It didn't have copy & paste, so it couldn't have been "right", but it was also "great". Ive said himself that even in hardware you go thru versions and re-work based on what you've learned, that even hardware doesn't stop a product from evolving and prevent a designer from going thru the iterative process. 

    The only BS is that which prevents you personally from understand how product works. I don't know what you do but I sure hope it isn't related to releasing product.
    edited February 2018 randominternetperson
  • Reply 37 of 73
    rfrmac said:
    Sorry, this means little to me.  Anything passed 5 years is just guess work or nice to haves.  Things are changing too fast for anything longer to make any sense.  
    What are you talking about? R&D for a new product can take WELL beyond 5 years. What changes in that 5 years will only aid in the develooment of your product. If one lacks the vision to see 5 years down the line, they would not be working for a company like Apple. 
    StrangeDaysrandominternetperson
  • Reply 38 of 73
    I get what he's saying but hate that he feels the need to virtue signal to socialists in society by saying Apple isn't in it for the money.
    He's not signalling to them (the socialists in society). IMHO, he's giving the finger to the Wall St 'we only look at the next 90 days' analists.
    He's telling them that things like Apple Music (low margin) will be introduced as and when Apple think fit so that they expand the relevance of Apple to the average person.
    The naysayers will state that he's adding more bricks to the Apple 'walled garden'. I don't think they are.

    He has to justify the huge increase in R&D spending. Kit to make cars 'Self-Driving' and a updates to existing products does not cut it for me. Where is all that money going? I expect that we will find out in good time.
    randominternetpersoncornchip
  • Reply 39 of 73
    Owing to Apple's laziness, Siri ended up the most stupid digital assistant despite Apple having the means and time to put Siri out in front. That's what happens when a wealthy company doesn't give a damn about a product. You would think that when a product is around for as long as Siri was, improvements would have been in steady jumps. Maybe Apple simply didn't understand the importance of having a highly-intelligent digital assistant. Apple would have been able to put Siri on iPhones, MacBooks, iPads, iMacs and Mac Pro devices but apparently Apple didn't see the purpose in that. Apple would have had plenty of feedback in areas Siri needed to be developed but Apple completely missed its chance.

     Apple should feel downright embarrassed to have the worst digital assistant of them all. Apple must have no pride at all. If I were in Tim Cook's shoes, I'd run right out and acquire some top company leading in AI to step things up a notch or two for Siri. Either that or acquire some huge database of facts that Siri would be able to look up almost anything. If Siri requires a supercomputer for speed and intelligence then Apple better get one for every data center it has. Siri doesn't have to be the best, but with Apple's resources it damn sure shouldn't be considered the worst.  Apple better have a Siri II in the pipeline at this rate.  A lot of those R&D dollars need to be headed for improving Siri.  Amazon is just basically kicking Apple's butt with Alexa which is just so sad from an Apple fan's point of view.
    Jesus what a warped sense of reality you in. Curious that you feel qualified to attribute to “laziness” that which you’re completely ignorant about. To the lay person it all seems simple and easy. But here in IRL we know that isn’t the case, and see it plainly as all the digital assistants are nowhere remotely near “AI”, and all struggle with the same sort of contextual issues. Some may have more answers hardcoded into them but that isn’t AI. They’re all very, very stupid. So no, Alexa isn’t kicking anyone’s butt, as a user on this very thread showed it failing the same exact sports question. 
  • Reply 40 of 73
    cgWerks said:

    And, other companies don't start on their products before they release them? Is Cook trying to act like they've been working on a smart-speaker before Amazon, Google, etc? I'm calling baloney on that one. 
    Sorry, folks, it's getting kinda thick in here. Beyond that first statement, the rest was first-class marketing fluff.

    Why don't other CEO's sound as lucid and thoughtful as Tim?
    You mean, laying on the BS in a very eloquent manner? I'm not sure we *want* other CEOs (nor Apple's) to have that skill.
    Steve was also pretty good, I suppose, but he was also able to deliver.
    There was a well written AI article discussing exactly the situation You call baloney. They were working in the HomePod for quite some time. As a matter of fact the joke in the team was that one of the HomePod engineers must have told someone at amazon and google what they were working on. To further the story the Apple engineers quickly snapped up an Alexa or goog speaker, and discovered there was nothing of significance/ to worry about in terms of competitiveness. 

    Steve, talked the talk for sure, but he was no more able to deliver on some of the features he freaked out about than any other CEO. He had to “fake
    it” more than a few times. 
    StrangeDaysrandominternetperson
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