What to expect in Apple's fiscal third quarter earnings report

Posted:
in iPhone edited July 2018
With the quarterly earnings scheduled for this evening, most of the analysts on the Apple beat see another quarter of significant growth year-over-year for the company, for the reasons that you may expect. And, those same analysts are looking ahead to the next two quarters already.

iPhone X


Apple is set to announce its third-quarter earnings on late Tuesday, and ahead of the release, analysts have chimed in on what they are expecting to see from Apple for the last quarter, and the one to come.

According to the estimates, collated by Philip Elmer-DeWitt, the consensus is that Apple will post 37 percent EPS growth in the third quarter. That performance would mark Apple's largest increase in percent since the fourth quarter of 2015.

The survey, of hundreds of analysts, also predicted 26 percent growth in the fourth quarter. Apple showed 30 percent EPS growth in the second quarter.

Estimate's earnings estimates for the fourth quarter


A separate survey of 17 analysts, also collected by Elmer-DeWitt, predicted that Apple will have sold 42.05 million iPhones in the third quarter.

The analysts -- 10 on Wall Street and seven independent -- forecasted a range between 39.8 million and 43.3 million in sales volume for iPhones. The reports were collected as early as January and as recently as July 24.

Apple's iPad is expected to glean about 11.8 million -- but Wall Street consensus missed iPad sales increases last quarter by a healthy margin.

Ahead of the 2017 Q3 earnings announcement last July, analysts polled by CNBC predicted Apple would announce they had sold 40.7 million iPhones, and $25.52 billion in iPhone revenue. The actual number was just over 41 million, with $24.8 billion in revenue.

Another roundup of analysts ahead of earnings a year ago, by Investors Business Daily, predicted sales that quarter of $44.89 billion with Apple actually posting $45.4 billion. Prior to those earnings, many analysts saw that quarter as a lull prior to the arrival of last year's iPhone 8 and iPhone X.

Meanwhile, Apple sold 52.2 million iPhones in the second quarter of 2018. Sales numbers and earnings are typically lower in the third quarter prior to the arrival of new iPhones.

Looking ahead

The same analysts expect to see Apple call for about $59 billion in Apple's fourth fiscal quarter revenue, which is about 15 percent growth year-over-year. However, the range of predictions has varied a bit more than in recent years, citing escalating fears of a trade war with China, which could lead to increased tariffs on iPhones -- and potentially higher consumer pricing.

Questions, and few answers

The earnings announcement is followed up by a question and answer session. While a number of notable remarks have come out of these sessions, like Apple CEO Tim Cook's admonition that analysts not pay too much attention to supply chain part rumors to make any inferences, little substance comes out of it in regards to Apple's specific future plans.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 63
    BebeBebe Posts: 120member
    This is in contrast to stories I was hearing quarters ago prior to earning announcements,  :D
  • Reply 2 of 63
    geekmeegeekmee Posts: 320member
    I guess this is what ‘Doomed’ looks like. 😂
  • Reply 3 of 63
    geekmeegeekmee Posts: 320member
    I guess this just proves that Apple really does ‘thinks differently’...They are redefining the meaning of ‘Doomed’ 😂😂
    lkruppStrangeDays
  • Reply 4 of 63
    nunzynunzy Posts: 662member
    37% profit growth will make Wall Street very very happy. Can't innovate my ass.

    It just proves that you don't have to be all things to all people. You just go after the most profitable market segments and compete there.

    Google thinks that they can fool all of the people all of the time. Apple knows better.
  • Reply 5 of 63
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 3,797member
    I seem to be having patchy connections on the train.

    Where is the 37% earnings growth coming from? 

    I'm seeing an estimated YoY growth of approx 2% in units from the graphs that load.
    edited July 2018
  • Reply 6 of 63
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,762member
    avon b7 said:
    I seem to be having patchy connections on the train.

    Where is the 37% earnings growth coming from? 

    I'm seeing an estimated YoY growth of approx 2% in units from the graphs that load.
    Funny, I've been attempting to educate you on Apple's financials almost since you arrived here, but your bias towards unit marketshare doesn't allow it. 

    This time, you get to figure it out yourself. 

    I'll give you a hint. Apple states the necessary data to understand this every, single, time, that they give their financials.

    Good luck!
    edited July 2018 anantksundaramMacProStrangeDaysSpamSandwichRayz2016
  • Reply 7 of 63
    hentaiboyhentaiboy Posts: 958member
    AAPL --> $200  B)
    anantksundaramSpamSandwich
  • Reply 8 of 63
    racerhomie3racerhomie3 Posts: 1,106member
    The app cuts off 70% of the article.
    iPhone SE 11.4
  • Reply 9 of 63
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 3,797member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    I seem to be having patchy connections on the train.

    Where is the 37% earnings growth coming from? 

    I'm seeing an estimated YoY growth of approx 2% in units from the graphs that load.
    Funny, I've been attempting to educate you on Apple's financials almost since you arrived here, but your bias towards unit marketshare doesn't allow it. 

    This time, you get to figure it out yourself. 

    I'll give you a hint. Apple states the necessary data to understand this every, single, time, that they give their financials.

    Good luck!
    Hey, I'm great but not that great. I'm at home and while a couple of graphics have loaded on the linked site, they both refer to units (only iPhones) shipped. There is NO financial information anywhere to be seen and even with my superpowers I cannot pop into the future and see the data Apple will offer on Tuesday. No mention of anything except iPhone unit sales. No Mac info, no services info. Nothing.

    Maybe Chrome is shielding me from that!

    RacerHomie3 says the app is not showing 70% of the article but I'm on the web.
  • Reply 10 of 63
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,762member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    I seem to be having patchy connections on the train.

    Where is the 37% earnings growth coming from? 

    I'm seeing an estimated YoY growth of approx 2% in units from the graphs that load.
    Funny, I've been attempting to educate you on Apple's financials almost since you arrived here, but your bias towards unit marketshare doesn't allow it. 

    This time, you get to figure it out yourself. 

    I'll give you a hint. Apple states the necessary data to understand this every, single, time, that they give their financials.

    Good luck!
    Hey, I'm great but not that great. I'm at home and while a couple of graphics have loaded on the linked site, they both refer to units (only iPhones) shipped. There is NO financial information anywhere to be seen and even with my superpowers I cannot pop into the future and see the data Apple will offer on Tuesday. No mention of anything except iPhone unit sales. No Mac info, no services info. Nothing.

    Maybe Chrome is shielding me from that!

    RacerHomie3 says the app is not showing 70% of the article but I'm on the web.
    The graph states "quarterly earnings", of which services is second to iPhones for revenue.

    Here's a link to services;

    https://www.ped30.com/2018/07/25/apple-services-q3-2018/

    Revenue for iPhones is up year on year from higher ASP, average selling price, even if units sales hasn't risen much.
    edited July 2018 StrangeDays
  • Reply 11 of 63
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 3,797member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    I seem to be having patchy connections on the train.

    Where is the 37% earnings growth coming from? 

    I'm seeing an estimated YoY growth of approx 2% in units from the graphs that load.
    Funny, I've been attempting to educate you on Apple's financials almost since you arrived here, but your bias towards unit marketshare doesn't allow it. 

    This time, you get to figure it out yourself. 

    I'll give you a hint. Apple states the necessary data to understand this every, single, time, that they give their financials.

    Good luck!
    Hey, I'm great but not that great. I'm at home and while a couple of graphics have loaded on the linked site, they both refer to units (only iPhones) shipped. There is NO financial information anywhere to be seen and even with my superpowers I cannot pop into the future and see the data Apple will offer on Tuesday. No mention of anything except iPhone unit sales. No Mac info, no services info. Nothing.

    Maybe Chrome is shielding me from that!

    RacerHomie3 says the app is not showing 70% of the article but I'm on the web.
    The graph states "quarterly earnings", of which services is second to iPhones for revenue.

    Here's a link to services;

    https://www.ped30.com/2018/07/25/apple-services-q3-2018/

    Revenue for iPhones is up year on year from higher ASP, average selling price, even if units sales hasn't risen much.
    I think I have an idea of what's happening (unless the formatting of the article has changed since yesterday).

    There is a block of links but when in portrait orientation, Chrome lights up the entire text and takes me to the first link in the block making it seem like there is only one link in the block.

    However, when in landscape orientation only the text of each link lights up, indicating that there are other links in the block.
  • Reply 12 of 63
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 3,999member
    What to expect? A good quarter but the stock will still be flat to down after hours because sell side analysts are fretting over next quarter or the holiday quarter. And then the usual suspects will say Wall Street doesn’t care about what you did in the past they care about what you’ll do in the future, blah blah blah. Except with Wall Street the future for Apple is always gloomy. It’s always ‘well this quarter was good but next quarter won’t be. And for sure the quarter after that won’t be’. And then when those quarters are good Wall Street forgets what they said but is still certain the next quarter and quarter after that will be bad. Rinse and repeat every quarter.
    lkruppstudiomusic
  • Reply 13 of 63
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 3,999member
    I find it curious that certain Apple fans get all excited because revenue and profits are up due to higher prices. As a consumer why should I be excited that a company is charging more for their products?
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 14 of 63
    nunzy said:
    37% profit growth will make Wall Street very very happy. Can't innovate my ass.
    It won't satisfy Wall St. They will be expecting 45% minimum. There can never be enough profits for some of those who speak out of their backsides.
  • Reply 15 of 63
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,098member
    I find it curious that certain Apple fans get all excited because revenue and profits are up due to higher prices. As a consumer why should I be excited that a company is charging more for their products?
    Because profitable companies that build high quality products tend to stay in business for long periods of time. I bought my first Apple product 36 years ago and it still works. That you set yourself apart from Apple fans begs a number of questions about your motives here. If I like the keyboard on the MacBook Pro and you hate it that makes me the fanboy and you the reasoned critic? 
    edited July 2018 tmayRayz2016
  • Reply 16 of 63
    I’m really curious what Apple guides for next quarter. If it’s higher than usual then I expect the iPhone (and iPad Pro) to be available for sale for a good chunk of September. In other words, an early September launch/keynote. 
  • Reply 17 of 63
    I find it curious that certain Apple fans get all excited because revenue and profits are up due to higher prices. As a consumer why should I be excited that a company is charging more for their products?

    I find it curious you assume the only reason revenues are up is because of higher prices. What about higher unit sales? Increased services revenue? Reduced manufacturing costs due to economies of scale?

    No, lets make the erroneous claim it’s all due to Apple raising prices.
    lkrupp
  • Reply 18 of 63
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 3,797member
    lkrupp said:
    I find it curious that certain Apple fans get all excited because revenue and profits are up due to higher prices. As a consumer why should I be excited that a company is charging more for their products?
    Because profitable companies that build high quality products tend to stay in business for long periods of time. I bought my first Apple product 36 years ago and it still works. That you set yourself apart from Apple fans begs a number of questions about your motives here.
    Not at all. If I buy a product from any company, I'm thinking about the use it will give me and the support I will get. If it is to keep them healthy for the next 36 years I'm getting a rough deal. For that they should throw some shares into the deal!

    Apple has accumulated more than 250 billion in cash over the last decade. Most of it sits unused. I don't see the consumer getting a good deal out of that. Other companies have been wildly successful for equally long without accumulating such a cash hoard and provide equally good products and services, if not better.
  • Reply 19 of 63
    avon b7 said:
    lkrupp said:
    I find it curious that certain Apple fans get all excited because revenue and profits are up due to higher prices. As a consumer why should I be excited that a company is charging more for their products?
    Because profitable companies that build high quality products tend to stay in business for long periods of time. I bought my first Apple product 36 years ago and it still works. That you set yourself apart from Apple fans begs a number of questions about your motives here.
    Not at all. If I buy a product from any company, I'm thinking about the use it will give me and the support I will get. If it is to keep them healthy for the next 36 years I'm getting a rough deal. For that they should throw some shares into the deal!

    Apple has accumulated more than 250 billion in cash over the last decade. Most of it sits unused. I don't see the consumer getting a good deal out of that. Other companies have been wildly successful for equally long without accumulating such a cash hoard and provide equally good products and services, if not better.

    Bullshit.
    StrangeDaysSpamSandwich
  • Reply 20 of 63
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,098member
    avon b7 said:
    lkrupp said:
    I find it curious that certain Apple fans get all excited because revenue and profits are up due to higher prices. As a consumer why should I be excited that a company is charging more for their products?
    Because profitable companies that build high quality products tend to stay in business for long periods of time. I bought my first Apple product 36 years ago and it still works. That you set yourself apart from Apple fans begs a number of questions about your motives here.
    Not at all. If I buy a product from any company, I'm thinking about the use it will give me and the support I will get. If it is to keep them healthy for the next 36 years I'm getting a rough deal. For that they should throw some shares into the deal!

    Apple has accumulated more than 250 billion in cash over the last decade. Most of it sits unused. I don't see the consumer getting a good deal out of that. Other companies have been wildly successful for equally long without accumulating such a cash hoard and provide equally good products and services, if not better.
    So you admit you do not own any Apple products because of your personal criteria for purchasing a product. Thanks. Now we know why you are here.
    edited July 2018 ericthehalfbee
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