Development costs 'prohibitively high' for 7nm chips for everybody but Apple and TSMC

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 88
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 30,850member
    This is why I’m so skeptical when someone talks excitedly about how great Huawei’s products perform. They’re good enough, but not as great as some try to have us think, and part of that fault goes back to Huawei itself. From anandtech, since someone here likes to quote them when they think it favors them:

    One of the biggest announcements from Huawei this year is that of its new GPU Turbo technology. The claims that it could provide more performance at less power, without a hardware change gave us quite a bit of pause. Internally, more than a few raised eyebrows appeared. As part of our discussions with Huawei this year at IFA, as well as some pretesting, we actually now have a base understanding of the technology, as well as additional insight into some of the marketing tactics – not all of which are the most honest representations of the new feature.”

    not an unusual response.
    tmaywatto_cobra
  • Reply 42 of 88
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 2,602member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    Huawei only has a small volume of Kirin 980 samples until TMSC has met its contractual obligations to Apple. Neither you nor I know if or when Kirin 980 production has started or will start.
    How on earth can you know that?
    Uhm, because Apple spends the most money, by far, and has one of the longest running exclusive relationships at TMSC, and the fact that Apple has volume production of the iPhone in process, with deliveries beginning in just a couple of weeks.

    If this wasn't the case, why would Huawei have waited to release the new phones in mid October? They could have moved heaven and earth to have these phones ready before Apple, but only if they had processors in volume before Apple does. It wouldn't even need to be a big volume, just a few millions shipped to a single market.

    I gave you a scenario where Apple ships 85 m iPhones this quarter, which will work out to about 60 million of the three new models. That will drive renege over $100B for the quarter.

    EDIT;

    I would also note that TMSC makes, unless I am in error, all of the other SoC's that Apple uses for all of the older model iPhones, for the Watch, AppleTV, AirPod's, et al, although not all of them are or need to be, at the newest node.
    So, that was the long winded version of 'you don't know at all'. Great!

    Think about it for a moment. Huawei could release/announce it today if it wanted. Start taking pre orders and be done with it. No need to move heaven and earth. We're talking about a few weeks difference and there were rumours of mass Kirin 980 production as far back as April this year It could  limit the release to just one region and phase the roll out. Just like many manufacturers (including Huawei already do).

    Now think a little harder. Could it be that Huawei might just have its own plans for release and not give a damn about Apple?

    You know, like releasing the Mate 20 in exactly the same way as it released the Mate 10?
    edited September 4
  • Reply 43 of 88
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).


    Sorry, but the INDUSTRY ACCEPTED definition of who's first is when a device is shipped to customers. Until that time things like announcements or demos mean squat.

    Until customers can buy a device with a Kirin 980 it's just vaporware. And not very impressive at that.
    Can you give me a link to that INDUSTRY ACCEPTED definition?

    Can you give me a link to show that ANNOUNCING something is accepted as being able to declare who's first?

    When a processor is designed it goes through multiple steps. At the very beginning there's a decision made to go ahead with a new processor (this could easily be a year or more in advance). Then engineers will start with the design and layout. They will place orders with the fab for early prototypes for testing and verification and make changes to their design. Eventually they'll perform taping out for the final design of the processor. After that they'll go into mass production and then get used in actual devices.

    Where along this very long and complicated process (of which I only listed a few common steps) should someone be able to declare they're "first"? After all, it has to be consistent from manufacturer to manufacturer, otherwise anyone can make that claim at any time. When they finish final taping? When they first get samples back from the fab? When they place an order? How about at the very beginning when a decision is made to go ahead and start work on a processor? Of course these are all ridiculous.

    Do you know what "vaporware" means? It refers to products that are announced, but shipped at a later date (or never shipped at all). It's typically done to try and claim victory over a competitor by being first (like Huawei is doing here) or to prevent (or delay) customers from considering switching to a competitor by announcing your as-yet unavailable product that does everything your competitor does.

    This is why everyone (except, apparently, shills) agree that the only real metric to determine when someone is first when when a product ships to customers.


    Of course I'm not surprised you'd try to challenge this definition, since your employer (Huawei) is lying about being first and you have to defend them at any costs. Including trying to alter accepted practices of determining who's first.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 44 of 88
    tmaytmay Posts: 2,994member
    melgross said:
    This is why I’m so skeptical when someone talks excitedly about how great Huawei’s products perform. They’re good enough, but not as great as some try to have us think, and part of that fault goes back to Huawei itself. From anandtech, since someone here likes to quote them when they think it favors them:

    ”One of the biggest announcements from Huawei this year is that of its new GPU Turbo technology. The claims that it could provide more performance at less power, without a hardware change gave us quite a bit of pause. Internally, more than a few raised eyebrows appeared. As part of our discussions with Huawei this year at IFA, as well as some pretesting, we actually now have a base understanding of the technology, as well as additional insight into some of the marketing tactics – not all of which are the most honest representations of the new feature.”

    not an unusual response.
    The analog to this is pre-running a WRC Course, over and over again, until a driver/car combination can run it at maximum efficiency, in this case, training a specific game to gain a notably small benefit while still with a noticeable visual limitation. I applaud Huawei for figuring this out with an AI solution, but as a fix for weak GPU's, it is in fact, mostly marketing hype. For that, significant differences in hardware require specific training, and devices lacking an NPU fall back to a less efficient CPU.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 45 of 88
    avon b7 said:
    Soli said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    Building a prototype ≠ mass production. Until you can go into a store and by a device with that processor with the stated lithography then it's just vapourware because any claims about shipping a product can evaporate at any time. If you need some examples of how a working prototype or marketing piece is still vapourware just google failed Kickstarter products.

    And while you probably think there's a bias against companies that aren't Apple on this forum keep in mind that this also applies to Apple. It's applies to the current state of no AirPower and no AirPods case with inductive charging that was suppose to ship 3 seasons ago as well as Group FaceTime—which I believe was demoed—being removed from Mojave and iOS 12.
    Yes, but even you will have to admit that for a 2018 launch of this calibre, the Kirin 980 had to be in mass production for a while now so calling it vapourware is plain wrong.

    Add to that that a Mate 20 was actually spotted in the wild at IFA, LOL.

    https://www.gsmarena.com/huawei_mate_20_spotted_in_the_wild_at_the_ifa_show_floor-news-33055.php



    Funny that someone has a Mate 20, yet Huawei didn't take the massive opportunity to demo it along with their 980 announcement.
    tmaywatto_cobra
  • Reply 46 of 88
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 2,602member
    melgross said:
    avon b7 said:
    melgross said:

    avon b7 said:
    There were also rumours at one point claiming that Samsung was so interested in part of Huawei's 7nm fabrication that it was making offers on OLED panels for them to sweeten the deal.


    Never heard any of those rumors. Where did you read them?
    They popped up during the year. They only have passing interest. I don't log them. There were also rumours of a homebrew GPU and a Kirin 1020. They are fun and some are more convincing than others but it's always a lottery.
    Never heard them, and I keep up with this.
    So do I but we never catch all the rumours.
  • Reply 47 of 88
    tmaytmay Posts: 2,994member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    Huawei only has a small volume of Kirin 980 samples until TMSC has met its contractual obligations to Apple. Neither you nor I know if or when Kirin 980 production has started or will start.
    How on earth can you know that?
    Uhm, because Apple spends the most money, by far, and has one of the longest running exclusive relationships at TMSC, and the fact that Apple has volume production of the iPhone in process, with deliveries beginning in just a couple of weeks.

    If this wasn't the case, why would Huawei have waited to release the new phones in mid October? They could have moved heaven and earth to have these phones ready before Apple, but only if they had processors in volume before Apple does. It wouldn't even need to be a big volume, just a few millions shipped to a single market.

    I gave you a scenario where Apple ships 85 m iPhones this quarter, which will work out to about 60 million of the three new models. That will drive renege over $100B for the quarter.

    EDIT;

    I would also note that TMSC makes, unless I am in error, all of the other SoC's that Apple uses for all of the older model iPhones, for the Watch, AppleTV, AirPod's, et al, although not all of them are or need to be, at the newest node.
    So, that was the long winded version of 'you don't know at all'. Great!

    Think about it for a moment. Huawei could release it today if it wanted. No need to move heaven and earth. We're talking about a few weeks difference and there were rumours of mass Kirin 980 production as far back as April this year It could  limit the release to just one region and phase the roll out. Just like many manufacturers (including Huawei already do).

    Now think a little harder. Could it be that Huawei might just have its own plans for release and not give a damn about Apple?

    You know, like releasing the Mate 20 in exactly the same way as it released the Mate 10?
    I have given you a logical scenario, based on Apple being TMSC's preeminent and exclusive customer, and its volumes of 7nm production, as well as total production. Your retort is that Huawei "has its own plans", rather than a later access to 7nm production.

    Which scenario is most likely?

    Certainly not yours.
    muthuk_vanalingamericthehalfbeeStrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 48 of 88
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 30,850member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    Huawei only has a small volume of Kirin 980 samples until TMSC has met its contractual obligations to Apple. Neither you nor I know if or when Kirin 980 production has started or will start.
    How on earth can you know that?
    Uhm, because Apple spends the most money, by far, and has one of the longest running exclusive relationships at TMSC, and the fact that Apple has volume production of the iPhone in process, with deliveries beginning in just a couple of weeks.

    If this wasn't the case, why would Huawei have waited to release the new phones in mid October? They could have moved heaven and earth to have these phones ready before Apple, but only if they had processors in volume before Apple does. It wouldn't even need to be a big volume, just a few millions shipped to a single market.

    I gave you a scenario where Apple ships 85 m iPhones this quarter, which will work out to about 60 million of the three new models. That will drive renege over $100B for the quarter.

    EDIT;

    I would also note that TMSC makes, unless I am in error, all of the other SoC's that Apple uses for all of the older model iPhones, for the Watch, AppleTV, AirPod's, et al, although not all of them are or need to be, at the newest node.
    So, that was the long winded version of 'you don't know at all'. Great!

    Think about it for a moment. Huawei could release/announce it today if it wanted. Start taking pre orders and be done with it. No need to move heaven and earth. We're talking about a few weeks difference and there were rumours of mass Kirin 980 production as far back as April this year It could  limit the release to just one region and phase the roll out. Just like many manufacturers (including Huawei already do).

    Now think a little harder. Could it be that Huawei might just have its own plans for release and not give a damn about Apple?

    You know, like releasing the Mate 20 in exactly the same way as it released the Mate 10?
    Well, it’s not likely that Huawei ignores anything that Apple does. They can’t. Even now, the iPhone X is the most popular phone in china, or was a few weeks ago. I imagine that sales have fallen a lot before Apple’s announcement. In fact, several of Apple’s phones were on the most popular list. You know Huawei will be looking at Apple’s presentation, as will every other major phone manufacturer, and probably most every other.

    announce what? The 20? They’ve effectively done that already. All companies need to have chip production begin months before their device comes out so that there will be enough when the device is there. They don’t always succeed in it though.
    tmaywatto_cobra
  • Reply 49 of 88
    Soli said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    And while you probably think there's a bias against companies that aren't Apple on this forum keep in mind that this also applies to Apple. It's applies to the current state of no AirPower and no AirPods case with inductive charging that was suppose to ship 3 seasons ago as well as Group FaceTime—which I believe was demoed—being removed from Mojave and iOS 12.
    Group FaceTime was announced at WWDC as coming in iOS 12, but it was never stated if that was 12.0 or a later point release. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 50 of 88
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 2,602member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    Huawei only has a small volume of Kirin 980 samples until TMSC has met its contractual obligations to Apple. Neither you nor I know if or when Kirin 980 production has started or will start.
    How on earth can you know that?
    Uhm, because Apple spends the most money, by far, and has one of the longest running exclusive relationships at TMSC, and the fact that Apple has volume production of the iPhone in process, with deliveries beginning in just a couple of weeks.

    If this wasn't the case, why would Huawei have waited to release the new phones in mid October? They could have moved heaven and earth to have these phones ready before Apple, but only if they had processors in volume before Apple does. It wouldn't even need to be a big volume, just a few millions shipped to a single market.

    I gave you a scenario where Apple ships 85 m iPhones this quarter, which will work out to about 60 million of the three new models. That will drive renege over $100B for the quarter.

    EDIT;

    I would also note that TMSC makes, unless I am in error, all of the other SoC's that Apple uses for all of the older model iPhones, for the Watch, AppleTV, AirPod's, et al, although not all of them are or need to be, at the newest node.
    So, that was the long winded version of 'you don't know at all'. Great!

    Think about it for a moment. Huawei could release it today if it wanted. No need to move heaven and earth. We're talking about a few weeks difference and there were rumours of mass Kirin 980 production as far back as April this year It could  limit the release to just one region and phase the roll out. Just like many manufacturers (including Huawei already do).

    Now think a little harder. Could it be that Huawei might just have its own plans for release and not give a damn about Apple?

    You know, like releasing the Mate 20 in exactly the same way as it released the Mate 10?
    I have given you a logical scenario, based on Apple being TMSC's preeminent and exclusive customer, and its volumes of 7nm production, as well as total production. Your retort is that Huawei "has its own plans", rather than a later access to 7nm production.

    Which scenario is most likely?

    Certainly not yours.
    Ah, now it boils down to logical scenarios.

    Here's another one for you to chew on.

    Don't you think that contractual obligations also exist between TMSC and ALL its customers????

    Or do you think there are clauses in their contracts that hold disclaimers like:

    "You will get your chips as long as we have spare capacity after fulfilling Apple's orders"

    What is logical in that? You have no reason to doubt Huawei has everything it ordered for launch, not even the infamous virus issue.

    Why? Because they haven't said ANYTHING to that effect and have announced that at least two phones (one from Honor and one from Huawei) will be shipping soon.
  • Reply 51 of 88
    tmaytmay Posts: 2,994member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    Huawei only has a small volume of Kirin 980 samples until TMSC has met its contractual obligations to Apple. Neither you nor I know if or when Kirin 980 production has started or will start.
    How on earth can you know that?
    Uhm, because Apple spends the most money, by far, and has one of the longest running exclusive relationships at TMSC, and the fact that Apple has volume production of the iPhone in process, with deliveries beginning in just a couple of weeks.

    If this wasn't the case, why would Huawei have waited to release the new phones in mid October? They could have moved heaven and earth to have these phones ready before Apple, but only if they had processors in volume before Apple does. It wouldn't even need to be a big volume, just a few millions shipped to a single market.

    I gave you a scenario where Apple ships 85 m iPhones this quarter, which will work out to about 60 million of the three new models. That will drive renege over $100B for the quarter.

    EDIT;

    I would also note that TMSC makes, unless I am in error, all of the other SoC's that Apple uses for all of the older model iPhones, for the Watch, AppleTV, AirPod's, et al, although not all of them are or need to be, at the newest node.
    So, that was the long winded version of 'you don't know at all'. Great!

    Think about it for a moment. Huawei could release it today if it wanted. No need to move heaven and earth. We're talking about a few weeks difference and there were rumours of mass Kirin 980 production as far back as April this year It could  limit the release to just one region and phase the roll out. Just like many manufacturers (including Huawei already do).

    Now think a little harder. Could it be that Huawei might just have its own plans for release and not give a damn about Apple?

    You know, like releasing the Mate 20 in exactly the same way as it released the Mate 10?
    I have given you a logical scenario, based on Apple being TMSC's preeminent and exclusive customer, and its volumes of 7nm production, as well as total production. Your retort is that Huawei "has its own plans", rather than a later access to 7nm production.

    Which scenario is most likely?

    Certainly not yours.
    Ah, now it boils down to logical scenarios.

    Here's another one for you to chew on.

    Don't you think that contractual obligations also exist between TMSC and ALL its customers????

    Or do you think there are clauses in their contracts that hold disclaimers like:

    "You will get your chips as long as we have spare capacity after fulfilling Apple's orders"

    What is logical in that? You have no reason to doubt Huawei has everything it ordered for launch, not even the infamous virus issue.

    Why? Because they haven't said ANYTHING to that effect and have announced that at least two phones (one from Honor and one from Huawei) will be shipping soon.
    I didn't say that Huawei didn't have everything, or even enough, for launch on October 16, just that it was likely that the production for Huawei was scheduled after the contractual obligations for Apple were completed, and even I don't know when that occurred. You would have to acknowledge that Apple would have been given priority for 7nm production by TMSC at this time of year, clearly because Apple has stature to be the lead company for production at a new node.
    edited September 4 ericthehalfbeewatto_cobra
  • Reply 52 of 88
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    Huawei only has a small volume of Kirin 980 samples until TMSC has met its contractual obligations to Apple. Neither you nor I know if or when Kirin 980 production has started or will start.
    How on earth can you know that?
    Uhm, because Apple spends the most money, by far, and has one of the longest running exclusive relationships at TMSC, and the fact that Apple has volume production of the iPhone in process, with deliveries beginning in just a couple of weeks.

    If this wasn't the case, why would Huawei have waited to release the new phones in mid October? They could have moved heaven and earth to have these phones ready before Apple, but only if they had processors in volume before Apple does. It wouldn't even need to be a big volume, just a few millions shipped to a single market.

    I gave you a scenario where Apple ships 85 m iPhones this quarter, which will work out to about 60 million of the three new models. That will drive renege over $100B for the quarter.

    EDIT;

    I would also note that TMSC makes, unless I am in error, all of the other SoC's that Apple uses for all of the older model iPhones, for the Watch, AppleTV, AirPod's, et al, although not all of them are or need to be, at the newest node.
    So, that was the long winded version of 'you don't know at all'. Great!

    Think about it for a moment. Huawei could release it today if it wanted. No need to move heaven and earth. We're talking about a few weeks difference and there were rumours of mass Kirin 980 production as far back as April this year It could  limit the release to just one region and phase the roll out. Just like many manufacturers (including Huawei already do).

    Now think a little harder. Could it be that Huawei might just have its own plans for release and not give a damn about Apple?

    You know, like releasing the Mate 20 in exactly the same way as it released the Mate 10?
    I have given you a logical scenario, based on Apple being TMSC's preeminent and exclusive customer, and its volumes of 7nm production, as well as total production. Your retort is that Huawei "has its own plans", rather than a later access to 7nm production.

    Which scenario is most likely?

    Certainly not yours.
    Ah, now it boils down to logical scenarios.

    Here's another one for you to chew on.

    Don't you think that contractual obligations also exist between TMSC and ALL its customers????

    Or do you think there are clauses in their contracts that hold disclaimers like:

    "You will get your chips as long as we have spare capacity after fulfilling Apple's orders"

    What is logical in that? You have no reason to doubt Huawei has everything it ordered for launch, not even the infamous virus issue.

    Why? Because they haven't said ANYTHING to that effect and have announced that at least two phones (one from Honor and one from Huawei) will be shipping soon.

    Apple will beat Huawei at everything regarding 7nm chips. Apple would have finished taping out sooner, they would have placed their multi-million order sooner, they will receive those millions of chips sooner and they will be selling them in actual devices sooner. Every single step of the way Apple will be ahead of Huawei. This is simple logic. How else could Apple fulfill 10's of millions of iPhone sales (in the first month) if they were somehow behind Huawei in the production of 7nm chips? It's simply not possible.

    Yet despite being ahead of Huawei at literally everything, you want to take Huawei's "announcement" of their processor as definitive proof they they are first. Utterly pathetic, even for a troll.
    tmayStrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 53 of 88
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 2,602member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    Huawei only has a small volume of Kirin 980 samples until TMSC has met its contractual obligations to Apple. Neither you nor I know if or when Kirin 980 production has started or will start.
    How on earth can you know that?
    Uhm, because Apple spends the most money, by far, and has one of the longest running exclusive relationships at TMSC, and the fact that Apple has volume production of the iPhone in process, with deliveries beginning in just a couple of weeks.

    If this wasn't the case, why would Huawei have waited to release the new phones in mid October? They could have moved heaven and earth to have these phones ready before Apple, but only if they had processors in volume before Apple does. It wouldn't even need to be a big volume, just a few millions shipped to a single market.

    I gave you a scenario where Apple ships 85 m iPhones this quarter, which will work out to about 60 million of the three new models. That will drive renege over $100B for the quarter.

    EDIT;

    I would also note that TMSC makes, unless I am in error, all of the other SoC's that Apple uses for all of the older model iPhones, for the Watch, AppleTV, AirPod's, et al, although not all of them are or need to be, at the newest node.
    So, that was the long winded version of 'you don't know at all'. Great!

    Think about it for a moment. Huawei could release it today if it wanted. No need to move heaven and earth. We're talking about a few weeks difference and there were rumours of mass Kirin 980 production as far back as April this year It could  limit the release to just one region and phase the roll out. Just like many manufacturers (including Huawei already do).

    Now think a little harder. Could it be that Huawei might just have its own plans for release and not give a damn about Apple?

    You know, like releasing the Mate 20 in exactly the same way as it released the Mate 10?
    I have given you a logical scenario, based on Apple being TMSC's preeminent and exclusive customer, and its volumes of 7nm production, as well as total production. Your retort is that Huawei "has its own plans", rather than a later access to 7nm production.

    Which scenario is most likely?

    Certainly not yours.
    Ah, now it boils down to logical scenarios.

    Here's another one for you to chew on.

    Don't you think that contractual obligations also exist between TMSC and ALL its customers????

    Or do you think there are clauses in their contracts that hold disclaimers like:

    "You will get your chips as long as we have spare capacity after fulfilling Apple's orders"

    What is logical in that? You have no reason to doubt Huawei has everything it ordered for launch, not even the infamous virus issue.

    Why? Because they haven't said ANYTHING to that effect and have announced that at least two phones (one from Honor and one from Huawei) will be shipping soon.
    I didn't say that Huawei didn't have everything, or even enough, for launch on October 16, just that it was likely that the production for Huawei was scheduled after the contractual obligations for Apple were completed, and even I don't know when that occurred. You would have to acknowledge that Apple would have been given priority for 7nm production by TMSC at this time of year, clearly because Apple has stature to be the lead company for production at a new node.
    I am not privvy to that information but good business sense tells me that few companies would voluntarily depend on Apple as an exclusive customer. That means that TMSC could actually court alternatives to keep its options open and favour a stable mixed relationship with its clients to be covered in a worst case scenario.
    edited September 4
  • Reply 54 of 88
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 2,602member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    Huawei only has a small volume of Kirin 980 samples until TMSC has met its contractual obligations to Apple. Neither you nor I know if or when Kirin 980 production has started or will start.
    How on earth can you know that?
    Uhm, because Apple spends the most money, by far, and has one of the longest running exclusive relationships at TMSC, and the fact that Apple has volume production of the iPhone in process, with deliveries beginning in just a couple of weeks.

    If this wasn't the case, why would Huawei have waited to release the new phones in mid October? They could have moved heaven and earth to have these phones ready before Apple, but only if they had processors in volume before Apple does. It wouldn't even need to be a big volume, just a few millions shipped to a single market.

    I gave you a scenario where Apple ships 85 m iPhones this quarter, which will work out to about 60 million of the three new models. That will drive renege over $100B for the quarter.

    EDIT;

    I would also note that TMSC makes, unless I am in error, all of the other SoC's that Apple uses for all of the older model iPhones, for the Watch, AppleTV, AirPod's, et al, although not all of them are or need to be, at the newest node.
    So, that was the long winded version of 'you don't know at all'. Great!

    Think about it for a moment. Huawei could release it today if it wanted. No need to move heaven and earth. We're talking about a few weeks difference and there were rumours of mass Kirin 980 production as far back as April this year It could  limit the release to just one region and phase the roll out. Just like many manufacturers (including Huawei already do).

    Now think a little harder. Could it be that Huawei might just have its own plans for release and not give a damn about Apple?

    You know, like releasing the Mate 20 in exactly the same way as it released the Mate 10?
    I have given you a logical scenario, based on Apple being TMSC's preeminent and exclusive customer, and its volumes of 7nm production, as well as total production. Your retort is that Huawei "has its own plans", rather than a later access to 7nm production.

    Which scenario is most likely?

    Certainly not yours.
    Ah, now it boils down to logical scenarios.

    Here's another one for you to chew on.

    Don't you think that contractual obligations also exist between TMSC and ALL its customers????

    Or do you think there are clauses in their contracts that hold disclaimers like:

    "You will get your chips as long as we have spare capacity after fulfilling Apple's orders"

    What is logical in that? You have no reason to doubt Huawei has everything it ordered for launch, not even the infamous virus issue.

    Why? Because they haven't said ANYTHING to that effect and have announced that at least two phones (one from Honor and one from Huawei) will be shipping soon.

    Apple will beat Huawei at everything regarding 7nm chips. Apple would have finished taping out sooner, they would have placed their multi-million order sooner, they will receive those millions of chips sooner and they will be selling them in actual devices sooner. Every single step of the way Apple will be ahead of Huawei. This is simple logic. How else could Apple fulfill 10's of millions of iPhone sales (in the first month) if they were somehow behind Huawei in the production of 7nm chips? It's simply not possible.

    Yet despite being ahead of Huawei at literally everything, you want to take Huawei's "announcement" of their processor as definitive proof they they are first. Utterly pathetic, even for a troll.
    You lost me there.

    Please quote me so I have an inkling of what you are talking about. Don't put words into my mouth, just quote me.
  • Reply 55 of 88
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 2,602member
    avon b7 said:
    Soli said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    Building a prototype ≠ mass production. Until you can go into a store and by a device with that processor with the stated lithography then it's just vapourware because any claims about shipping a product can evaporate at any time. If you need some examples of how a working prototype or marketing piece is still vapourware just google failed Kickstarter products.

    And while you probably think there's a bias against companies that aren't Apple on this forum keep in mind that this also applies to Apple. It's applies to the current state of no AirPower and no AirPods case with inductive charging that was suppose to ship 3 seasons ago as well as Group FaceTime—which I believe was demoed—being removed from Mojave and iOS 12.
    Yes, but even you will have to admit that for a 2018 launch of this calibre, the Kirin 980 had to be in mass production for a while now so calling it vapourware is plain wrong.

    Add to that that a Mate 20 was actually spotted in the wild at IFA, LOL.

    https://www.gsmarena.com/huawei_mate_20_spotted_in_the_wild_at_the_ifa_show_floor-news-33055.php



    Funny that someone has a Mate 20, yet Huawei didn't take the massive opportunity to demo it along with their 980 announcement.
    Why? They will demo it on 16th October and at their own event. The point was the phone exists (and basically confirmed the rumoured square camera arrangement).
  • Reply 56 of 88
    tmaytmay Posts: 2,994member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    Huawei only has a small volume of Kirin 980 samples until TMSC has met its contractual obligations to Apple. Neither you nor I know if or when Kirin 980 production has started or will start.
    How on earth can you know that?
    Uhm, because Apple spends the most money, by far, and has one of the longest running exclusive relationships at TMSC, and the fact that Apple has volume production of the iPhone in process, with deliveries beginning in just a couple of weeks.

    If this wasn't the case, why would Huawei have waited to release the new phones in mid October? They could have moved heaven and earth to have these phones ready before Apple, but only if they had processors in volume before Apple does. It wouldn't even need to be a big volume, just a few millions shipped to a single market.

    I gave you a scenario where Apple ships 85 m iPhones this quarter, which will work out to about 60 million of the three new models. That will drive renege over $100B for the quarter.

    EDIT;

    I would also note that TMSC makes, unless I am in error, all of the other SoC's that Apple uses for all of the older model iPhones, for the Watch, AppleTV, AirPod's, et al, although not all of them are or need to be, at the newest node.
    So, that was the long winded version of 'you don't know at all'. Great!

    Think about it for a moment. Huawei could release it today if it wanted. No need to move heaven and earth. We're talking about a few weeks difference and there were rumours of mass Kirin 980 production as far back as April this year It could  limit the release to just one region and phase the roll out. Just like many manufacturers (including Huawei already do).

    Now think a little harder. Could it be that Huawei might just have its own plans for release and not give a damn about Apple?

    You know, like releasing the Mate 20 in exactly the same way as it released the Mate 10?
    I have given you a logical scenario, based on Apple being TMSC's preeminent and exclusive customer, and its volumes of 7nm production, as well as total production. Your retort is that Huawei "has its own plans", rather than a later access to 7nm production.

    Which scenario is most likely?

    Certainly not yours.
    Ah, now it boils down to logical scenarios.

    Here's another one for you to chew on.

    Don't you think that contractual obligations also exist between TMSC and ALL its customers????

    Or do you think there are clauses in their contracts that hold disclaimers like:

    "You will get your chips as long as we have spare capacity after fulfilling Apple's orders"

    What is logical in that? You have no reason to doubt Huawei has everything it ordered for launch, not even the infamous virus issue.

    Why? Because they haven't said ANYTHING to that effect and have announced that at least two phones (one from Honor and one from Huawei) will be shipping soon.
    I didn't say that Huawei didn't have everything, or even enough, for launch on October 16, just that it was likely that the production for Huawei was scheduled after the contractual obligations for Apple were completed, and even I don't know when that occurred. You would have to acknowledge that Apple would have been given priority for 7nm production by TMSC at this time of year, clearly because Apple has stature to be the lead company for production at a new node.
    I am not privvy to that information but good business sense tells me that few companies would voluntarily depend on Apple as an exclusive customer. That means that TMSC could actually court alternatives to keep its options open and favour a stable mixed relationship with its clients to be covered in a worst case scenario.
    You have shown nothing to me, or anyone else here at AI for that matter, of your having any business acumen, at all.

    Lecturing myself, Mel , or Eric on the folly of TMSC working closely with a long term, large, and leading edge, company like Apple is the height of your delusion. TMSC is the leader in SOC fab precisely because they earned the business of Apple and Qualcomm, amongst others, so having Apple contract for the earliest and largest segment, of the lead production, of a cutting edge node, is kind of a big deal, one that Samsung certainly wishes that it had won multiples times in the past. 
    edited September 4 ericthehalfbeeStrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 57 of 88
    And let us not even mention Intel which cannot even get to 10nm after years of delays...  *rolls eyes*
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 58 of 88
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 30,850member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    Huawei only has a small volume of Kirin 980 samples until TMSC has met its contractual obligations to Apple. Neither you nor I know if or when Kirin 980 production has started or will start.
    How on earth can you know that?
    Uhm, because Apple spends the most money, by far, and has one of the longest running exclusive relationships at TMSC, and the fact that Apple has volume production of the iPhone in process, with deliveries beginning in just a couple of weeks.

    If this wasn't the case, why would Huawei have waited to release the new phones in mid October? They could have moved heaven and earth to have these phones ready before Apple, but only if they had processors in volume before Apple does. It wouldn't even need to be a big volume, just a few millions shipped to a single market.

    I gave you a scenario where Apple ships 85 m iPhones this quarter, which will work out to about 60 million of the three new models. That will drive renege over $100B for the quarter.

    EDIT;

    I would also note that TMSC makes, unless I am in error, all of the other SoC's that Apple uses for all of the older model iPhones, for the Watch, AppleTV, AirPod's, et al, although not all of them are or need to be, at the newest node.
    So, that was the long winded version of 'you don't know at all'. Great!

    Think about it for a moment. Huawei could release it today if it wanted. No need to move heaven and earth. We're talking about a few weeks difference and there were rumours of mass Kirin 980 production as far back as April this year It could  limit the release to just one region and phase the roll out. Just like many manufacturers (including Huawei already do).

    Now think a little harder. Could it be that Huawei might just have its own plans for release and not give a damn about Apple?

    You know, like releasing the Mate 20 in exactly the same way as it released the Mate 10?
    I have given you a logical scenario, based on Apple being TMSC's preeminent and exclusive customer, and its volumes of 7nm production, as well as total production. Your retort is that Huawei "has its own plans", rather than a later access to 7nm production.

    Which scenario is most likely?

    Certainly not yours.
    Ah, now it boils down to logical scenarios.

    Here's another one for you to chew on.

    Don't you think that contractual obligations also exist between TMSC and ALL its customers????

    Or do you think there are clauses in their contracts that hold disclaimers like:

    "You will get your chips as long as we have spare capacity after fulfilling Apple's orders"

    What is logical in that? You have no reason to doubt Huawei has everything it ordered for launch, not even the infamous virus issue.

    Why? Because they haven't said ANYTHING to that effect and have announced that at least two phones (one from Honor and one from Huawei) will be shipping soon.
    Actually, the clauses can look something like that. HTC complained a few years ago, that because they were small, they were being pushed to the back of the line by parts suppliers. That’s with contracts. If they have a contract with a big customer, and they have to fill a certain amount of orders by a certain time, and capacity is limited, that large customer will see their needs taken care of first. Sorry, but that’s the way it works.
    tmayStrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 59 of 88
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 30,850member

    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    Huawei only has a small volume of Kirin 980 samples until TMSC has met its contractual obligations to Apple. Neither you nor I know if or when Kirin 980 production has started or will start.
    How on earth can you know that?
    Uhm, because Apple spends the most money, by far, and has one of the longest running exclusive relationships at TMSC, and the fact that Apple has volume production of the iPhone in process, with deliveries beginning in just a couple of weeks.

    If this wasn't the case, why would Huawei have waited to release the new phones in mid October? They could have moved heaven and earth to have these phones ready before Apple, but only if they had processors in volume before Apple does. It wouldn't even need to be a big volume, just a few millions shipped to a single market.

    I gave you a scenario where Apple ships 85 m iPhones this quarter, which will work out to about 60 million of the three new models. That will drive renege over $100B for the quarter.

    EDIT;

    I would also note that TMSC makes, unless I am in error, all of the other SoC's that Apple uses for all of the older model iPhones, for the Watch, AppleTV, AirPod's, et al, although not all of them are or need to be, at the newest node.
    So, that was the long winded version of 'you don't know at all'. Great!

    Think about it for a moment. Huawei could release it today if it wanted. No need to move heaven and earth. We're talking about a few weeks difference and there were rumours of mass Kirin 980 production as far back as April this year It could  limit the release to just one region and phase the roll out. Just like many manufacturers (including Huawei already do).

    Now think a little harder. Could it be that Huawei might just have its own plans for release and not give a damn about Apple?

    You know, like releasing the Mate 20 in exactly the same way as it released the Mate 10?
    I have given you a logical scenario, based on Apple being TMSC's preeminent and exclusive customer, and its volumes of 7nm production, as well as total production. Your retort is that Huawei "has its own plans", rather than a later access to 7nm production.

    Which scenario is most likely?

    Certainly not yours.
    Ah, now it boils down to logical scenarios.

    Here's another one for you to chew on.

    Don't you think that contractual obligations also exist between TMSC and ALL its customers????

    Or do you think there are clauses in their contracts that hold disclaimers like:

    "You will get your chips as long as we have spare capacity after fulfilling Apple's orders"

    What is logical in that? You have no reason to doubt Huawei has everything it ordered for launch, not even the infamous virus issue.

    Why? Because they haven't said ANYTHING to that effect and have announced that at least two phones (one from Honor and one from Huawei) will be shipping soon.
    I didn't say that Huawei didn't have everything, or even enough, for launch on October 16, just that it was likely that the production for Huawei was scheduled after the contractual obligations for Apple were completed, and even I don't know when that occurred. You would have to acknowledge that Apple would have been given priority for 7nm production by TMSC at this time of year, clearly because Apple has stature to be the lead company for production at a new node.
    I am not privvy to that information but good business sense tells me that few companies would voluntarily depend on Apple as an exclusive customer. That means that TMSC could actually court alternatives to keep its options open and favour a stable mixed relationship with its clients to be covered in a worst case scenario.
    Apple is estimated to be between 20-25% of TSMC’s  business. But, and this is crucial, right now, TSMC has one plant that makes 7nm chips. Their biggest customer, and first customer for that is Apple. Next in line is Qualcomm. Then, maybe, third is Huawei. Just looking at the size of the orders each company has in.

    now, it’s also known that Apple paid TSMC several billion $ to help get that plant built, as they often do with major, and sometimes minor suppliers (they paid Samsung to buy machinery several years ago). For that, they get extra discounts, and are served first.

    This article doesn’t cover rhe 7nm plant, but is one of many that gives an idea as to how important Apple is to them.

    https://wccftech.com/tsmc-20-billion-facility-keep-apple-customer/

    ‘’I’ve been getting some weird typos here lately. It changes after I post. Then I have to go back, sometimes several times.
    edited September 4 tmaySoliwatto_cobra
  • Reply 60 of 88
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 2,602member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    HiSilicon (Huawei) has had 7nm chips in mass production (TSMC) since around June according to many rumours. It has also been said that they have a contractual amount of orders (millions) to be fulfilled for launch phones (suspected to be three models in the short term). 

    Apple needs volume on launch because it releases one refresh every year.

    Huawei will release four flagship phones over the coming 12 months and as a result doesn't have anywhere near the pent up demand for September/October release. It will be spread out over the year and before year's end the Kirin 980 will also be in mid tier devices as well as non-handset devices.

    Quite why this report exists is a mystery as Huawei presented the Kirin 980 just last week to a world audience at IFA Berlin, live blogged and all:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13302/ifa-2018-huawei-kirin-980-keynote-live-blog

    They said it took three years to develop and gave the date of presentation for the first phone to use it: 16th October.

    Honor said the Magic 2 would also use it very soon. Rumours point to a December release. They wouldn't have announced that part if supply constraints were expected.

    This is the second time DigiTimes has made this type of claim (I'm basing this on AI articles). The first time was when they claimed only Apple and Samsung had the financial resources to bring 7nm to market.

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/17/12/13/apple-samsung-could-be-only-smartphone-makers-with-7nm-chips-in-2018

    blah blah Kirin blah blah Huawei blah blah 7nm blah blah

    Nobody cares about your constant Huawei shilling.

    Apple will be the THE FIRST company on the planet with 7nm chips. This is a fact. Huawei "announcing" they have the Kirin 980 means absolutely nothing. Apple will have working iPhones with the A12 7nm chip on September 12th. And they'll have 10's of millions shipping out a week later. Which means Apple would have had already received millions of A12 processors months ago. Unless you think you can fab a processor (in the millions) in only a couple days, and then get them into iPhones (by the millions) in a couple more days.

    All Huawei is trying to do is trick gullible/stupid people into thinking they were first, because Huawei knows Apple won't say anything about their A12 processor. So they can yap all they want knowing full well Apple will stay silent. Intelligent people know who's first (using INDUSTRY ACCEPTED STANDARDS). And that is Apple.

    Announcing is not shipping. The Kirin 980 is vaporware at this point. Just like last year when Huawei lied and claimed the Kirin 970 was the first processor with a neural processor (the A11 from Apple was first, and the 970 didn't ship until months later) by "announcing" it just before the iPhone came out. Do people actually fall for this crap?



    Now speaking about the 980, how come it takes Huawei years and over 1,000 engineers to build a processor that uses off-the-shelf CPU and GPU cores? And still uses the vastly inferior UFS for storage (while Apple will be on their 4th generation NVMe)? What exactly have they developed in terms of IP related to processors?

    I see you linked Anandtech, but left out the performance claims. They're stating a Geekbench single core score of 3,300 for an A76 core (as used in the 980). The A11 scores 4,200. So a year old A11 core on the older 10nm process is STILL significantly faster than an A76 core on 7nm. Doesn't seem that impressive to me. At all.
    Cores and SoCs. Two different things. SoCs and phones. Two different things.

    Vapourware? The Kirin 980 was sitting there and running at IFA 2018. It is just waiting for the phone to launch (October 16th).
    Huawei only has a small volume of Kirin 980 samples until TMSC has met its contractual obligations to Apple. Neither you nor I know if or when Kirin 980 production has started or will start.
    How on earth can you know that?
    Uhm, because Apple spends the most money, by far, and has one of the longest running exclusive relationships at TMSC, and the fact that Apple has volume production of the iPhone in process, with deliveries beginning in just a couple of weeks.

    If this wasn't the case, why would Huawei have waited to release the new phones in mid October? They could have moved heaven and earth to have these phones ready before Apple, but only if they had processors in volume before Apple does. It wouldn't even need to be a big volume, just a few millions shipped to a single market.

    I gave you a scenario where Apple ships 85 m iPhones this quarter, which will work out to about 60 million of the three new models. That will drive renege over $100B for the quarter.

    EDIT;

    I would also note that TMSC makes, unless I am in error, all of the other SoC's that Apple uses for all of the older model iPhones, for the Watch, AppleTV, AirPod's, et al, although not all of them are or need to be, at the newest node.
    So, that was the long winded version of 'you don't know at all'. Great!

    Think about it for a moment. Huawei could release it today if it wanted. No need to move heaven and earth. We're talking about a few weeks difference and there were rumours of mass Kirin 980 production as far back as April this year It could  limit the release to just one region and phase the roll out. Just like many manufacturers (including Huawei already do).

    Now think a little harder. Could it be that Huawei might just have its own plans for release and not give a damn about Apple?

    You know, like releasing the Mate 20 in exactly the same way as it released the Mate 10?
    I have given you a logical scenario, based on Apple being TMSC's preeminent and exclusive customer, and its volumes of 7nm production, as well as total production. Your retort is that Huawei "has its own plans", rather than a later access to 7nm production.

    Which scenario is most likely?

    Certainly not yours.
    Ah, now it boils down to logical scenarios.

    Here's another one for you to chew on.

    Don't you think that contractual obligations also exist between TMSC and ALL its customers????

    Or do you think there are clauses in their contracts that hold disclaimers like:

    "You will get your chips as long as we have spare capacity after fulfilling Apple's orders"

    What is logical in that? You have no reason to doubt Huawei has everything it ordered for launch, not even the infamous virus issue.

    Why? Because they haven't said ANYTHING to that effect and have announced that at least two phones (one from Honor and one from Huawei) will be shipping soon.
    I didn't say that Huawei didn't have everything, or even enough, for launch on October 16, just that it was likely that the production for Huawei was scheduled after the contractual obligations for Apple were completed, and even I don't know when that occurred. You would have to acknowledge that Apple would have been given priority for 7nm production by TMSC at this time of year, clearly because Apple has stature to be the lead company for production at a new node.
    I am not privvy to that information but good business sense tells me that few companies would voluntarily depend on Apple as an exclusive customer. That means that TMSC could actually court alternatives to keep its options open and favour a stable mixed relationship with its clients to be covered in a worst case scenario.
    You have shown nothing to me, or anyone else here at AI for that matter, of your having any business acumen, at all.

    Lecturing myself, Mel , or Eric on the folly of TMSC working closely with a long term, large, and leading edge, company like Apple is the height of your delusion. TMSC is the leader in SOC fab precisely because they earned the business of Apple and Qualcomm, amongst others, so having Apple contract for the earliest and largest segment, of the lead production, of a cutting edge node, is kind of a big deal, one that Samsung certainly wishes that it had won multiples times in the past. 
    Where do you get the idea that I lecture absolutely anybody? I give my opinion and defend it. That's it.

    If we're talking about opinions, there is no right one or wrong one.

    When we're talking about facts, I put them on the table and even when the troll patrol arrives I am tolerant of them, although my defence might go up a notch if someone insists on showing a lack of respect.







    edited September 4 gatorguy
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