Goldman Sachs raises AAPL target to $182 citing stabilizing Chinese demand

Posted:
in AAPL Investors
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have improved their view of Apple's share, raising the stock's 12-month target price from $140 to $182 under the belief demand in China is no longer an issue, at the same time as anticipating Apple will beat its guidance for the upcoming financial results.

Apple Store in Hangzhou, China
Apple Store in Hangzhou, China


Goldman Sachs has been slow to update its valuation for Apple's share price, after cutting the target from $182 to $140 in early January along with other analysts following Apple's financial slip. Wednesday's investor note sees the firm bring its target back up to what it was over three months ago.

"We believe Apple can deliver better than FactSet consensus revenue in the March quarter," Goldman Sachs advises, "and guide inline for the June quarter based on a new country level model we are rolling out with this report." The target change is said to "reflect less short term downside" for investors, as well as a "change in our valuation methodology."

For demand of the iPhone, there are some mixed results. Goldman Sachs believes market checks "indicate no further deterioration of demand in China," a suggestion that the situation won't get worse for Apple since its January slip, but at the same time warns "European consumer sentiment implies the possibility for worse demand there."

For later in 2019, the analysts are pessimistic about the next iPhone releases, claiming there is "increasing potential for Apple to miss consensus expectations at the unit and potentially the ASP level." The current forecast is for 61 million iPhone shipments in the December 2019 quarter, which is up 3 million from Goldman Sachs' previous estimate, but 6 million down from the Wall Street Consensus.

The Qualcomm settlement is also flagged as offering "potential risk to FQ3 margins." Apple recently settled with Qualcomm to end a series of potentially expensive lawsuits, agreeing to a multi-year licensing deal and a one-time payment to the chip producer.

The note from Goldman Sachs should also be read with knowledge that Apple is working with the company to release the Apple Card credit card this summer in the United States.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 29
    Considering AAPL closed at $207.48 yesterday I guess this was an easy call for Goldman. 
    flyingdplkruppindiekidukelfig2012wlymstevenozjony0
  • Reply 2 of 29
    red oakred oak Posts: 657member
    Anyone who took Goldman’s advice lost out on a 40% return to the current level 

    The analyst at Goldman following Apple is just awful.  Hard to understand how he still has his job
    flyingdpjony0
  • Reply 3 of 29
    sirozhasirozha Posts: 532member
    AAPL's precipitous drop after October 4, 2018 was completely uncalled for, but its meteoric rise since the end of 2018 is also totally unfounded. Nothing changed fundamentally from the end of 2018. All of this is shameless market manipulation by some very powerful players. They oversold at the end of 2018, brought the market down and created panic among inexperienced investors, who sold AAPL on the way down. Then, these powerful players with a lot of cash on their hands bought between December 24, 2018 and the end of 2018. They have now created a 40% return in one quarter. We shall see what Apple reports next week, but this could be one of the worst performing quarters in the past few years for Apple. Even my financial advisors were telling me to sell AAPL when it was (or around) $155 last year, telling me that Apple was finished. Good thing I have been an AAPL investor for many years now, and have seen these precipitous drops many times. However, going forward, I'm not so sure I want to have so much AAPL, as I do think that the company's ability to grow revenue has stalled.
    edited April 24 williamh
  • Reply 4 of 29
    racerhomie3racerhomie3 Posts: 1,060member
    Conflict of interest!!!
    foregoneconclusionStrangeDays
  • Reply 5 of 29
    Apple's share price is partly to do with what Wall Street investors believe about Apple (often misguided) but also, I think, by how other companies are doing. All that money has to go somewhere and with Facebook in yet another scandal, Amazon potentially reaching saturation and Microsoft being Microsoft Apple may be seen as the safest place to park your cash. So the rise is not 'totally unfounded'. And Apple does actually create products that people want whereas Facebook has nothing if people lose trust (as they are in the richer countries in the world) and Amazon goes nowhere in China (we have our own online store thanks very much). I'm very happy to own Apple shares and I loose no sleep at night at all worrying about falls. Facebook's/Spotify's/Amazon's/Samsung's failure is Apple's success. Obviously, I know nothing about shares but I did know enough to buy a wedge of Apple shares a few years ago so feeling smug in may ignorance! :smile: 
  • Reply 6 of 29
    Conflict of interest!!!
    Yeah, anyone reading Goldman's advice should be considering their direct interest as an Apple business partner. That said, a lot of the analysts aren't being paid to be accurate. They're paid to take certain types of strategic positions that could manipulate the market. 
    StrangeDays
  • Reply 7 of 29
    iOS_Guy80iOS_Guy80 Posts: 133member
    I take what Goldman writes and do the opposite. Has paid off well with Apple.
  • Reply 8 of 29
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,956member
    sirozha said:
    AAPL's precipitous drop after October 4, 2018 was completely uncalled for, but its meteoric rise since the end of 2018 is also totally unfounded. Nothing changed fundamentally from the end of 2018. All of this is shameless market manipulation by some very powerful players. They oversold at the end of 2018, brought the market down and created panic among inexperienced investors, who sold AAPL on the way down. Then, these powerful players with a lot of cash on their hands bought between December 24, 2018 and the end of 2018. They have now created a 40% return in one quarter. We shall see what Apple reports next week, but this could be one of the worst performing quarters in the past few years for Apple. Even my financial advisors were telling me to sell AAPL when it was (or around) $155 last year, telling me that Apple was finished. Good thing I have been an AAPL investor for many years now, and have seen these precipitous drops many times. However, going forward, I'm not so sure I want to have so much AAPL, as I do think that the company's ability to grow revenue has stalled.
    Worse performing quarters in years... Apple is finished... well okay then.
    edited April 24 jony0
  • Reply 9 of 29
    linkmanlinkman Posts: 902member
    Considering AAPL closed at $207.48 yesterday I guess this was an easy call for Goldman. 
    And it also might explain why Goldman has been doing so poorly in analyzing what is occurring with Apple.  With the fact that it opens today so far above their target does that mean it'll trigger their instant sell-off?
  • Reply 10 of 29
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,166member
    $182...?  Is this typo?
    indiekidukstevenozjony0
  • Reply 11 of 29
    YP101YP101 Posts: 56member
    I think this is target price within 12 months.
    GS provide their client as lowest price can go from 140 to 182 at this time.
    Which GS predicting long term fall can be happen again like 12/2018.

    So if their client wants to get in now APPL, GS just telling them it can go lower by year end again.

    Apple was shot their own foot couple of times last year. At the end Apple will not tell street how many iPhone they are selling which Apple used to provide number to pumping their stock price as well.(as shown we are growth company.)
    Now the Street rely on retail number from sellers. Not from Apple.

    If Apple rise dividend this year, I think APPL will go over 233 soon.
  • Reply 12 of 29
    jimh2jimh2 Posts: 129member
    sirozha said:
    AAPL's precipitous drop after October 4, 2018 was completely uncalled for, but its meteoric rise since the end of 2018 is also totally unfounded. Nothing changed fundamentally from the end of 2018. All of this is shameless market manipulation by some very powerful players. They oversold at the end of 2018, brought the market down and created panic among inexperienced investors, who sold AAPL on the way down. Then, these powerful players with a lot of cash on their hands bought between December 24, 2018 and the end of 2018. They have now created a 40% return in one quarter. We shall see what Apple reports next week, but this could be one of the worst performing quarters in the past few years for Apple. Even my financial advisors were telling me to sell AAPL when it was (or around) $155 last year, telling me that Apple was finished. Good thing I have been an AAPL investor for many years now, and have seen these precipitous drops many times. However, going forward, I'm not so sure I want to have so much AAPL, as I do think that the company's ability to grow revenue has stalled.
    Your comments don't make sense: the stock went down for no reason and then rebounded for no reason. They counteracted each other. Also, I doubt inexperienced investors had much to do with it as institutional investors control 60% of the shares and are capable of stock price manipulation whether direct or indirect.

    In the end none of these analysts know anything about the future. They forecast the future using made up complicated mathematical calculations presented in charts and graphs to make them understandable to the common folk.
    jony0
  • Reply 13 of 29
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,007member
    It’s been a long, slow slog back up toward $220+ again.
  • Reply 14 of 29
    LOL.

    Hello, GS? Anybody home?
  • Reply 15 of 29
    FatmanFatman Posts: 286member
    I think we will see $1T market cap by end of month. I also think ‘analyst’ Rod Hall is an idiot that is guessing as much as anyone else.
  • Reply 16 of 29
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,507member
    I see that some think that their numbers don’t jibe with what’s happening now. While I don’t agree with their numbers, though I do with their direction, there are reasons why they come up with the ones they use, and it has nothing to do with the numbers in place.

    market values for companies are based on both rational and irrational reasons. I know that the trading industry doesn’t like to talk about it, but it’s true nevertheless. So their numbers are based on what they see Apple doing during the time the numbers are aimed at. Right now, the market thinks Apple is good. We see right now, that the stock, at the time I’m writing this, is about $208.30. They think it’s too high. Their earlier calculation had Apple in a worse place, with large fears about China sales. But those fears have eased off somewhat. But their estimates of sales/profits has Apple’s valuation at the newly increased price, which is lower than what it currently is.

    if a stock price only went up, their estimates would be under water, but as we all know (I hope) stocks go down as well as up. I’m sure many here thought Apple’s price, late last year, when it was at $233, would continue to go up, but it dropped by a very large amount to $144. Rounded numbers. I know they’re not exact. So, while I hope they’re now inaccurate on the low side, at least they’re showing increased confidence at Apple’s short term prospects.
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 17 of 29
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,507member
    jimh2 said:
    sirozha said:
    AAPL's precipitous drop after October 4, 2018 was completely uncalled for, but its meteoric rise since the end of 2018 is also totally unfounded. Nothing changed fundamentally from the end of 2018. All of this is shameless market manipulation by some very powerful players. They oversold at the end of 2018, brought the market down and created panic among inexperienced investors, who sold AAPL on the way down. Then, these powerful players with a lot of cash on their hands bought between December 24, 2018 and the end of 2018. They have now created a 40% return in one quarter. We shall see what Apple reports next week, but this could be one of the worst performing quarters in the past few years for Apple. Even my financial advisors were telling me to sell AAPL when it was (or around) $155 last year, telling me that Apple was finished. Good thing I have been an AAPL investor for many years now, and have seen these precipitous drops many times. However, going forward, I'm not so sure I want to have so much AAPL, as I do think that the company's ability to grow revenue has stalled.
    Your comments don't make sense: the stock went down for no reason and then rebounded for no reason. They counteracted each other. Also, I doubt inexperienced investors had much to do with it as institutional investors control 60% of the shares and are capable of stock price manipulation whether direct or indirect.

    In the end none of these analysts know anything about the future. They forecast the future using made up complicated mathematical calculations presented in charts and graphs to make them understandable to the common folk.
    You’re wrong. The stock dropped for a very good reason, and it’s been cl8mbing again for a very good reason.

    is it true that you know nothing of what’s happened since November?
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 18 of 29
    horvatichorvatic Posts: 128member
    Their price target is a little low considering APPL is at 207 right now.
  • Reply 19 of 29
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,507member
    horvatic said:
    Their price target is a little low considering APPL is at 207 right now.
    Sigh. That has nothing to do with anything,
  • Reply 20 of 29
    melgross said:
    horvatic said:
    Their price target is a little low considering APPL is at 207 right now.
    Sigh. That has nothing to do with anything,
    So you believe it's going to be considerably lower in a year?

    Why?

    Not opining, asking.

    However, I'm going to continue holding our stock either way, for a variety of reasons. One is that the analyst consensus disagrees with this low estimate. Another is that we bought our stock at the equivalent of $23 about eleven years ago, and I have a hard time believing that Apple is all through.
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