There are headwinds for Apple with regards to the competition. It is playing catch-up. Whether they catch up this year or not is a mystery. Part of its sales will hinge on that. Another part will hinge on price and another part of geopolitical issues.
The last four years haven't really moved the needle on shipments. That in itself is telling.
Catch up, precisely how?
Let's go further....telling, how?
As much as I think this analysis may be off, I do think the 2019 iPhone is going to be underwhelming. I have an XS Max, and I just doubt I'm going to turn it in to upgrade. I think I'd rather pay it off over another year.
The geeks will wait until 2020 but the masses haven't heard of, nor care about, 5G.
You’re kidding right? The masses haven’t heard of 5G? You can be sure telecom companies are doing everything they can to run ads on TV as much as they can - TV today is mostly a few of the same ads run over and over and over.. sometimes you can see the same ad just a few minutes apart during sports broadcasts LOL. Get ready for 5G ads big time
There are headwinds for Apple with regards to the competition. It is playing catch-up. Whether they catch up this year or not is a mystery. Part of its sales will hinge on that. Another part will hinge on price and another part of geopolitical issues.
The last four years haven't really moved the needle on shipments. That in itself is telling.
Catch up, precisely how?
Let's go further....telling, how?
As much as I think this analysis may be off, I do think the 2019 iPhone is going to be underwhelming. I have an XS Max, and I just doubt I'm going to turn it in to upgrade. I think I'd rather pay it off over another year.
There are headwinds for Apple with regards to the competition. It is playing catch-up. Whether they catch up this year or not is a mystery. Part of its sales will hinge on that. Another part will hinge on price and another part of geopolitical issues.
The last four years haven't really moved the needle on shipments. That in itself is telling.
Yes. It's telling us that modern smartphone sales growth is slowing about a decade after introduction. Which is a point that has been made for a few years now.
Apple appears to be ambivalent to how many phones are sold by other manufacturers, so as long as their own phone sales remain steady I don't see them trying to "play catch-up" in terms of units. They have demonstrated that their current goal is to sell services to keep increasing their revenue. When that market is saturated, they will find another avenue to exploit.
The geeks will wait until 2020 but the masses haven't heard of, nor care about, 5G.
Perhaps in your country, but all the top end Android phones in my country boast 5G and every network has made a big fuss in the news media when they launched their new 5G networks. Coverage is far from 100% but 4G is now viewed as old technology.
There are headwinds for Apple with regards to the competition. It is playing catch-up. Whether they catch up this year or not is a mystery. Part of its sales will hinge on that. Another part will hinge on price and another part of geopolitical issues.
The last four years haven't really moved the needle on shipments. That in itself is telling.
Yes. It's telling us that modern smartphone sales growth is slowing about a decade after introduction. Which is a point that has been made for a few years now.
Apple appears to be ambivalent to how many phones are sold by other manufacturers, so as long as their own phone sales remain steady I don't see them trying to "play catch-up" in terms of units. They have demonstrated that their current goal is to sell services to keep increasing their revenue. When that market is saturated, they will find another avenue to exploit.
I don't think they are ambivalent to unit sales. The fact that they ended up reimbursing Samsung Display a not insignificant sum for not shifting enough OLED panels shows that their own projections were higher than they could meet. They planned to sell many more phones than they actually did. Perhaps resignation would be a better word.
We'll know for sure if they will settle for a steady flow of sales or try to pump them up (beyond the traditional peak) just by observing the pricing on the new models (especially the entry level model).
If there are compelling features added and prices do come down then in my book that would be a sign of actively going for more share even if the overall market is depressed.
Now, some wild speculation on my part.
There is some talk of VR/AR glasses but only the 2018 refresh would be able to take full advantage of them. Not even the original iPhone X can. If that plays out and these glasses in some way are considered compelling by Apple, would that justify a price adjustment to get more users onto the AR/VR hardware as quickly as possible? Would it also justify eliminating everything pre iPhone X and introducing new mid range phones but equipped with the necessary VR/AR hardware? Fresh phones, modern designs, attractive prices.
There are headwinds for Apple with regards to the competition. It is playing catch-up. Whether they catch up this year or not is a mystery. Part of its sales will hinge on that. Another part will hinge on price and another part of geopolitical issues.
The last four years haven't really moved the needle on shipments. That in itself is telling.
Um, Apple is still crushing all competition in terms of profits earned, which is the only metric that matters. There is no "catching up" to be done by anyone except Samsung.
5g may invigorate sales (due to all the marketing hype on 5g)... at least until people realize just how few places there are to actually use it. Sure coverage expand, but that is going to take billions and years. https://www.cellularmaps.com/5g-coverage.shtml
This is foggy thinking. Once the sale is made, it doesn't matter whether people figure out later that 5G is a new technology that won't be fully rolled out til 2023 or so. A sale is a sale.
There are headwinds for Apple with regards to the competition. It is playing catch-up. Whether they catch up this year or not is a mystery. Part of its sales will hinge on that. Another part will hinge on price and another part of geopolitical issues.
The last four years haven't really moved the needle on shipments. That in itself is telling.
Um, Apple is still crushing all competition in terms of profits earned, which is the only metric that matters. There is no "catching up" to be done by anyone except Samsung.
It isn't the only metric that matters.
Only one company can take top spot. That means there are hundreds of thousands of companies doing just fine while not being in that top spot. Many raking in billions too.
Before Apple there was someone else. After Apple there will be someone else.
What matters is what you do with your money.
Considering its wealth, Apple hasn't really done much with its money.
What is far more important are the trend lines.
Not long ago, people were gloating about Apple sucking up all the handset profits.
There are headwinds for Apple with regards to the competition. It is playing catch-up. Whether they catch up this year or not is a mystery. Part of its sales will hinge on that. Another part will hinge on price and another part of geopolitical issues.
The last four years haven't really moved the needle on shipments. That in itself is telling.
Catch up, precisely how?
The battery department for one. Tri camera (should be a given). Better optical zoom (x5?). More powerful wireless charging. 3D live, small object modeling. Rear ToF. Low light photography improvements. Dual frequency GPS. 5G. Shell finish (there are rumours of a frosted finish). On SoC modem. Faster wi-fi. IR blaster ;-)
A lot of these features are the features that sell the phones.
I'd say the battery charging experience (out of the box) is the easiest problem to fix and the one that frustrates most users. Capacities are creeping up and rumours point to an improvement in that area. Camera versatility is probably the biggest tentpole feature that is currently missing (and desired by users).
True dual SIM finally arrived but only on Chinese models. A step in the right direction IMO. Tracking in difficult situations (many tunnels, high speed rail networks) is a weak spot.
1) I handed me down my iPhone recently and for kicks got an Android phone (too close to iPhone refresh to get the current gen) and the battery life is somewhat comparable, other than the Android doing weird things sometimes.
2) If the modem works I couldn’t care less where it is.
3) What is ToF?
4) Apple introducing e-sim led to my provider offering it. I see it as a good thing moving forward and much easier to manage sims, although these days I just get a roaming package (less hassle)
There are headwinds for Apple with regards to the competition. It is playing catch-up. Whether they catch up this year or not is a mystery. Part of its sales will hinge on that. Another part will hinge on price and another part of geopolitical issues.
The last four years haven't really moved the needle on shipments. That in itself is telling.
Catch up, precisely how?
The battery department for one. Tri camera (should be a given). Better optical zoom (x5?). More powerful wireless charging. 3D live, small object modeling. Rear ToF. Low light photography improvements. Dual frequency GPS. 5G. Shell finish (there are rumours of a frosted finish). On SoC modem. Faster wi-fi. IR blaster ;-)
A lot of these features are the features that sell the phones.
I'd say the battery charging experience (out of the box) is the easiest problem to fix and the one that frustrates most users. Capacities are creeping up and rumours point to an improvement in that area. Camera versatility is probably the biggest tentpole feature that is currently missing (and desired by users).
True dual SIM finally arrived but only on Chinese models. A step in the right direction IMO. Tracking in difficult situations (many tunnels, high speed rail networks) is a weak spot.
1) I handed me down my iPhone recently and for kicks got an Android phone (too close to iPhone refresh to get the current gen) and the battery life is somewhat comparable, other than the Android doing weird things sometimes.
2) If the modem works I couldn’t care less where it is.
3) What is ToF?
4) Apple introducing e-sim led to my provider offering it. I see it as a good thing moving forward and much easier to manage sims, although these days I just get a roaming package (less hassle)
1. No two iPhone models are the same. Imagine the differences on Android. I 'got an Android' doesn't say much at all. However the point stands. Apple is way behind in the battery department.
2. It's OK not to care where the modem is although you should want it on the S.o.C for a few reasons. You should also care who is building the modem and the complaints of iPhone users who say the intel modems current iPhones) are noticeably worse than the QC predecessors. You should care that for the last few years Apple has been a Cat behind other flagships. And now we are seeing 5G multimode modems filling the market. Apple has been behind in modems.
3. ToF = Time of Flight, used to measure depth in photography and AR situations. Better on the rear cameras as ToF has a longer range.
4. I was talking true dual SIM. An important feature in some of Apple's biggest markets and not just for travelling but for daily use. Only the Chinese 2018 iPhones are available with true dual SIM. Other vendors have had this feature for years worldwide and if a second SIM is not needed the slot can be used for extra storage.
There are headwinds for Apple with regards to the competition. It is playing catch-up. Whether they catch up this year or not is a mystery. Part of its sales will hinge on that. Another part will hinge on price and another part of geopolitical issues.
The last four years haven't really moved the needle on shipments. That in itself is telling.
Playing catch-up? lol!
Apple's silicon and FaceID have a 1-2 year advantage over crappy Android gear. You must be drinking the GoogleAid
Yes. Playing catch-up. No kidding. And in some key areas of the phone. The areas that matter.
Apple doesn't have a 1-2 advantage on FaceID. In fact FaceID hardware from the 2017 iPhones to the 2018 iPhones basically didn't even change. It simply got a little faster due to the A12. They could have done a lot more (even with the same hardware).
As implemented by Apple, FaceID is mostly and simply another, very expensive, biometric tool. Other vendors have chosen to stay with other far cheaper biometric options and improve the experience in other areas such as photography. That's more bang for your buck for many people.
If you want to see where that supposed 1-2 advantage really is, why not take a look what was shipping lastyear and tell me if what you are saying is true or not.
Skip to min 40.15:
In just two weeks from now you will be able to see the upgrade to that system (because, unlike Apple, it will be upgraded).
Just before that, Apple will release the iPhone 11 and I very much hope they have pulled their collective finger out. In fact, I'm optimistic that many of these shortcomings will be corrected but that won't change the fact for the last three years Apple hasn't really provided competitive phones at competitive prices. Hailing the A12 when the rest of the world looks on perplexed because they also have more speed than they can use doesn't give users what they really want and that is mostly in the camera, battery and modem departments.
In spite of the rumours, I am actually eager to see what gets presented at Apple's event this year.
Last year I couldn't watch live and when I saw the highlights I didn't even bother to sit through the recording (which by many accounts from people here was drawn out and boring).
Comments
Apple appears to be ambivalent to how many phones are sold by other manufacturers, so as long as their own phone sales remain steady I don't see them trying to "play catch-up" in terms of units. They have demonstrated that their current goal is to sell services to keep increasing their revenue. When that market is saturated, they will find another avenue to exploit.
Coverage is far from 100% but 4G is now viewed as old technology.
We'll know for sure if they will settle for a steady flow of sales or try to pump them up (beyond the traditional peak) just by observing the pricing on the new models (especially the entry level model).
If there are compelling features added and prices do come down then in my book that would be a sign of actively going for more share even if the overall market is depressed.
Now, some wild speculation on my
part.
There is some talk of VR/AR glasses but only the 2018 refresh would be able to take full advantage of them. Not even the original iPhone X can. If that plays out and these glasses in some way are considered compelling by Apple, would that justify a price adjustment to get more users onto the AR/VR hardware as quickly as possible? Would it also justify eliminating everything pre iPhone X and introducing new mid range phones but equipped with the necessary VR/AR hardware? Fresh phones, modern designs, attractive prices.
A generational sweep?
Only one company can take top spot. That means there are hundreds of thousands of companies doing just fine while not being in that top spot. Many raking in billions too.
Before Apple there was someone else. After Apple there will be someone else.
What matters is what you do with your money.
Considering its wealth, Apple hasn't really done much with its money.
What is far more important are the trend lines.
Not long ago, people were gloating about Apple sucking up all the handset profits.
How much do they suck up now?
2) If the modem works I couldn’t care less where it is.
3) What is ToF?
4) Apple introducing e-sim led to my provider offering it. I see it as a good thing moving forward and much easier to manage sims, although these days I just get a roaming package (less hassle)
2. It's OK not to care where the modem is although you should want it on the S.o.C for a few reasons. You should also care who is building the modem and the complaints of iPhone users who say the intel modems current iPhones) are noticeably worse than the QC predecessors. You should care that for the last few years Apple has been a Cat behind other flagships. And now we are seeing 5G multimode modems filling the market. Apple has been behind in modems.
3. ToF = Time of Flight, used to measure depth in photography and AR situations. Better on the rear cameras as ToF has a longer range.
4. I was talking true dual SIM. An important feature in some of Apple's biggest markets and not just for travelling but for daily use. Only the Chinese 2018 iPhones are available with true dual SIM. Other vendors have had this feature for years worldwide and if a second SIM is not needed the slot can be used for extra storage.
Apple doesn't have a 1-2 advantage on FaceID. In fact FaceID hardware from the 2017 iPhones to the 2018 iPhones basically didn't even change. It simply got a little faster due to the A12. They could have done a lot more (even with the same hardware).
As implemented by Apple, FaceID is mostly and simply another, very expensive, biometric tool. Other vendors have chosen to stay with other far cheaper biometric options and improve the experience in other areas such as photography. That's more bang for your buck for many people.
If you want to see where that supposed 1-2 advantage really is, why not take a look what was shipping last year and tell me if what you are saying is true or not.
Skip to min 40.15:
In just two weeks from now you will be able to see the upgrade to that system (because, unlike Apple, it will be upgraded).
Just before that, Apple will release the iPhone 11 and I very much hope they have pulled their collective finger out. In fact, I'm optimistic that many of these shortcomings will be corrected but that won't change the fact for the last three years Apple hasn't really provided competitive phones at competitive prices. Hailing the A12 when the rest of the world looks on perplexed because they also have more speed than they can use doesn't give users what they really want and that is mostly in the camera, battery and modem departments.
In spite of the rumours, I am actually eager to see what gets presented at Apple's event this year.
Last year I couldn't watch live and when I saw the highlights I didn't even bother to sit through the recording (which by many accounts from people here was drawn out and boring).