tmay said: The mortality rate of seasonal flu is about CFR (Case Fatality Rate) 0.1%, so a 1% CFR or above would be a order of magnitude or higher for SARS-nCOV-19.
My point is that they don't know the CFR, because they don't know how many cases there are. Lets say you think there are 1000 cases and 10 people die, so you run the calculation. But, in reality, there are 100,000 cases. Then your CFR is off by orders of magnitude.
tmay said: Why people don't take this seriously is beyond my comprehension,
Well, I guess I'd cite the boy who cried wolf, general unreliability of the mainstream media, and stuff like the above. I think I'm taking it as seriously as it needs to be taken at this point.
But, yeah, we have to still have to pay attention. One of these days something will come along and we'll all just be thinking... oh, it's just another Ebola, etc.
tmay said: The response to SARS-nCOV-19, the official name for this variant of Coronavirus, is appropriate for the simple reason that there are so many unknowns about transmission, and it is known that the mortality rate is at least a magnitude higher than seasonal flu.
We don't actually know that, because we don't know how many have actually been infected. So, the mortality rate is based off a much lower than likely infection level, yielding a higher percentage (but, in error).
Also, from what I've heard, only around 1% of deaths have been outside of someone with some other condition (ie. old age, compromised immune system, etc.).
The worrisome thing is the reported longer time you don't know you have it, etc.... or if you believe some of the conspiracy theories about it being a bio-weapon that got loose.
Based on the hysteria, they really shouldn't have any conferences, conventions, etc. every year and we should all work from home, as we take these risks each year (with the flu and such).
The mortality rate of seasonal flu is about CFR (Case Fatality Rate) 0.1%, so a 1% CFR or above would be a order of magnitude or higher for SARS-nCOV-19. That is what I have read that is expected to be the running CFR for SARS-nCOV-19, but that is dependent on treatment of the infected, and an epidemic would stress the available beds, ventilators, and personnel. The highest fatality rates are in seniors above 70, with existing data shows at something on the order of 14%.
The worst possible case would be a rapid growth in the infected showing symptoms, since those people will need to be treated. Asymptomatic cases will need to be verified by tests as well with likely self quarantine as the solution, so that they do not continue to infect the rest of the uninfected population. Hence, why testing is so important.
Why people don't take this seriously is beyond my comprehension, but no matter, there is already an impact on our economy for retail and service workers, and it is quite evident where there are existing clusters such as Kirkland, Washington. If this isn't contained through testing, and has to go to a mitigation strategy, there will be a high price for our economy, not to mention the fatalities.
About 25% of Italy's population will be quarantined from other parts of the country.
Yes, there are reports of people with light symptoms who simply gut it out till they recover -- like most people do with the flu (no doctor and no hospital is involved).
But this virus also reportedly has a twist where the person can be infected and infectious for up to 2-3 weeks before any symptoms appear and they realize that they are sick. They can infect a LOT of people during that time. Plus, it means that we need to treat it the same as health workers treat HIV: just assume that everybody has it.
While I have not heard any official agency refute that scenario, neither have I heard any publicly confirm it and respond to it. It almost seems like they don't want to deal with a problem for which they have no answer.
tmay said: The response to SARS-nCOV-19, the official name for this variant of Coronavirus, is appropriate for the simple reason that there are so many unknowns about transmission, and it is known that the mortality rate is at least a magnitude higher than seasonal flu.
We don't actually know that, because we don't know how many have actually been infected. So, the mortality rate is based off a much lower than likely infection level, yielding a higher percentage (but, in error).
Also, from what I've heard, only around 1% of deaths have been outside of someone with some other condition (ie. old age, compromised immune system, etc.).
The worrisome thing is the reported longer time you don't know you have it, etc.... or if you believe some of the conspiracy theories about it being a bio-weapon that got loose.
Based on the hysteria, they really shouldn't have any conferences, conventions, etc. every year and we should all work from home, as we take these risks each year (with the flu and such).
The mortality rate of seasonal flu is about CFR (Case Fatality Rate) 0.1%, so a 1% CFR or above would be a order of magnitude or higher for SARS-nCOV-19. That is what I have read that is expected to be the running CFR for SARS-nCOV-19, but that is dependent on treatment of the infected, and an epidemic would stress the available beds, ventilators, and personnel. The highest fatality rates are in seniors above 70, with existing data shows at something on the order of 14%.
The worst possible case would be a rapid growth in the infected showing symptoms, since those people will need to be treated. Asymptomatic cases will need to be verified by tests as well with likely self quarantine as the solution, so that they do not continue to infect the rest of the uninfected population. Hence, why testing is so important.
Why people don't take this seriously is beyond my comprehension, but no matter, there is already an impact on our economy for retail and service workers, and it is quite evident where there are existing clusters such as Kirkland, Washington. If this isn't contained through testing, and has to go to a mitigation strategy, there will be a high price for our economy, not to mention the fatalities.
About 25% of Italy's population will be quarantined from other parts of the country.
Yes, there are reports of people with light symptoms who simply gut it out till they recover -- like most people do with the flu (no doctor and no hospital is involved).
But this virus also reportedly has a twist where the person can be infected and infectious for up to 2-3 weeks before any symptoms appear and they realize that they are sick. They can infect a LOT of people during that time. Plus, it means that we need to treat it the same as health workers treat HIV: just assume that everybody has it.
While I have not heard any official agency refute that scenario, neither have I heard any publicly confirm it and respond to it. It almost seems like they don't want to deal with a problem for which they have no answer.
The essence is that dithering and inaction will only make the Coronavirus outbreak worse.
"A Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendation, advising elderly and immuno-compromised Americans to avoid flying on commercial airlines due to the coronavirus, was overruled by the White House, a federal official told The Associated Press under condition of anonymity."
Yeah, other countries are interested in how the U.S. deals with Coronavirus.
tmay said: The mortality rate of seasonal flu is about CFR (Case Fatality Rate) 0.1%, so a 1% CFR or above would be a order of magnitude or higher for SARS-nCOV-19.
My point is that they don't know the CFR, because they don't know how many cases there are. Lets say you think there are 1000 cases and 10 people die, so you run the calculation. But, in reality, there are 100,000 cases. Then your CFR is off by orders of magnitude.
tmay said: Why people don't take this seriously is beyond my comprehension,
Well, I guess I'd cite the boy who cried wolf, general unreliability of the mainstream media, and stuff like the above. I think I'm taking it as seriously as it needs to be taken at this point.
But, yeah, we have to still have to pay attention. One of these days something will come along and we'll all just be thinking... oh, it's just another Ebola, etc.
tmay said: The response to SARS-nCOV-19, the official name for this variant of Coronavirus, is appropriate for the simple reason that there are so many unknowns about transmission, and it is known that the mortality rate is at least a magnitude higher than seasonal flu.
We don't actually know that, because we don't know how many have actually been infected. So, the mortality rate is based off a much lower than likely infection level, yielding a higher percentage (but, in error).
Also, from what I've heard, only around 1% of deaths have been outside of someone with some other condition (ie. old age, compromised immune system, etc.).
The worrisome thing is the reported longer time you don't know you have it, etc.... or if you believe some of the conspiracy theories about it being a bio-weapon that got loose.
Based on the hysteria, they really shouldn't have any conferences, conventions, etc. every year and we should all work from home, as we take these risks each year (with the flu and such).
The mortality rate of seasonal flu is about CFR (Case Fatality Rate) 0.1%, so a 1% CFR or above would be a order of magnitude or higher for SARS-nCOV-19. That is what I have read that is expected to be the running CFR for SARS-nCOV-19, but that is dependent on treatment of the infected, and an epidemic would stress the available beds, ventilators, and personnel. The highest fatality rates are in seniors above 70, with existing data shows at something on the order of 14%.
The worst possible case would be a rapid growth in the infected showing symptoms, since those people will need to be treated. Asymptomatic cases will need to be verified by tests as well with likely self quarantine as the solution, so that they do not continue to infect the rest of the uninfected population. Hence, why testing is so important.
Why people don't take this seriously is beyond my comprehension, but no matter, there is already an impact on our economy for retail and service workers, and it is quite evident where there are existing clusters such as Kirkland, Washington. If this isn't contained through testing, and has to go to a mitigation strategy, there will be a high price for our economy, not to mention the fatalities.
About 25% of Italy's population will be quarantined from other parts of the country.
Yes, there are reports of people with light symptoms who simply gut it out till they recover -- like most people do with the flu (no doctor and no hospital is involved).
But this virus also reportedly has a twist where the person can be infected and infectious for up to 2-3 weeks before any symptoms appear and they realize that they are sick. They can infect a LOT of people during that time. Plus, it means that we need to treat it the same as health workers treat HIV: just assume that everybody has it.
While I have not heard any official agency refute that scenario, neither have I heard any publicly confirm it and respond to it. It almost seems like they don't want to deal with a problem for which they have no answer.
The essence is that dithering and inaction will only make the Coronavirus outbreak worse.
"A Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendation, advising elderly and immuno-compromised Americans to avoid flying on commercial airlines due to the coronavirus, was overruled by the White House, a federal official told The Associated Press under condition of anonymity."
Yeah, other countries are interested in how the U.S. deals with Coronavirus.
I'm not so sure that other countries are looking to us for leadership here. They know we fumbled the ball and are proceeding on their own. South Korea is testing hundreds of thousands and even has drive through testing stations. Italy has quarantined an entire region (although far less stringently than China did). In fact, I have to laugh: they block residents from getting to other parts of Italy -- but leave the airport open to other countries!
tmay said: The response to SARS-nCOV-19, the official name for this variant of Coronavirus, is appropriate for the simple reason that there are so many unknowns about transmission, and it is known that the mortality rate is at least a magnitude higher than seasonal flu.
We don't actually know that, because we don't know how many have actually been infected. So, the mortality rate is based off a much lower than likely infection level, yielding a higher percentage (but, in error).
Also, from what I've heard, only around 1% of deaths have been outside of someone with some other condition (ie. old age, compromised immune system, etc.).
The worrisome thing is the reported longer time you don't know you have it, etc.... or if you believe some of the conspiracy theories about it being a bio-weapon that got loose.
Based on the hysteria, they really shouldn't have any conferences, conventions, etc. every year and we should all work from home, as we take these risks each year (with the flu and such).
The mortality rate of seasonal flu is about CFR (Case Fatality Rate) 0.1%, so a 1% CFR or above would be a order of magnitude or higher for SARS-nCOV-19. That is what I have read that is expected to be the running CFR for SARS-nCOV-19, but that is dependent on treatment of the infected, and an epidemic would stress the available beds, ventilators, and personnel. The highest fatality rates are in seniors above 70, with existing data shows at something on the order of 14%.
The worst possible case would be a rapid growth in the infected showing symptoms, since those people will need to be treated. Asymptomatic cases will need to be verified by tests as well with likely self quarantine as the solution, so that they do not continue to infect the rest of the uninfected population. Hence, why testing is so important.
Why people don't take this seriously is beyond my comprehension, but no matter, there is already an impact on our economy for retail and service workers, and it is quite evident where there are existing clusters such as Kirkland, Washington. If this isn't contained through testing, and has to go to a mitigation strategy, there will be a high price for our economy, not to mention the fatalities.
About 25% of Italy's population will be quarantined from other parts of the country.
Yes, there are reports of people with light symptoms who simply gut it out till they recover -- like most people do with the flu (no doctor and no hospital is involved).
But this virus also reportedly has a twist where the person can be infected and infectious for up to 2-3 weeks before any symptoms appear and they realize that they are sick. They can infect a LOT of people during that time. Plus, it means that we need to treat it the same as health workers treat HIV: just assume that everybody has it.
While I have not heard any official agency refute that scenario, neither have I heard any publicly confirm it and respond to it. It almost seems like they don't want to deal with a problem for which they have no answer.
The essence is that dithering and inaction will only make the Coronavirus outbreak worse.
"A Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendation, advising elderly and immuno-compromised Americans to avoid flying on commercial airlines due to the coronavirus, was overruled by the White House, a federal official told The Associated Press under condition of anonymity."
Yeah, other countries are interested in how the U.S. deals with Coronavirus.
I'm not so sure that other countries are looking to us for leadership here. They know we fumbled the ball and are proceeding on their own. South Korea is testing hundreds of thousands and even has drive through testing stations. Italy has quarantined an entire region (although far less stringently than China did). In fact, I have to laugh: they block residents from getting to other parts of Italy -- but leave the airport open to other countries!
Italy is a hub for a significant number of flights into and out of Europe, but this containment strategy is a last gasp, otherwise they get a countrywide epidemic. I agree that South Korea is doing a good job, considering the tough start they had due to the "church" members.
Singapore has done an exceptional job, yet they still have a small number of new cases to deal with.
In a few months, this will be gone. Tech will face a couple of quarters of hiccups, our typical short-termism will lead to collective breathless bleating over those 180 days that the sky is falling, the end is nigh, we’re all lemmings headed over the cliff, etc etc, but a couple of years from now, mention of “COVID-19” will be met with blank stares.
That said, this is the kick-in-the-butt canary in the coalmine that tech companies need to GET OUT China, and fast. I think that globalization and concentration of the supply chain has finally met its match in wet markets and culinary traditions. The latter are not going to change any time soon. Companies that don’t do it will be in deep doo-doo when COVID-20 comes around (as it surely will some day).
The Department of Defense and the American Hospital Association disagrees with your assessment. Both are readying for a second wave starting in December-January 2021.
A couple of years from now, maybe. Not this year, and not next.
1) I specifically said a “couple of years”
2) DoD is a public health expert? None of them knows any more than public health experts. Have any public health agencies — e.g., CDC — predicted this? If so, please do post a link as that would be helpful.
tmay said: The mortality rate of seasonal flu is about CFR (Case Fatality Rate) 0.1%, so a 1% CFR or above would be a order of magnitude or higher for SARS-nCOV-19.
My point is that they don't know the CFR, because they don't know how many cases there are. Lets say you think there are 1000 cases and 10 people die, so you run the calculation. But, in reality, there are 100,000 cases. Then your CFR is off by orders of magnitude.
tmay said: Why people don't take this seriously is beyond my comprehension,
Well, I guess I'd cite the boy who cried wolf, general unreliability of the mainstream media, and stuff like the above. I think I'm taking it as seriously as it needs to be taken at this point.
But, yeah, we have to still have to pay attention. One of these days something will come along and we'll all just be thinking... oh, it's just another Ebola, etc.
Well lets see March Madness is about to start. Are they being called on to cancel the games. The areas will have 10 to 12 thousand in them. Same question as to NBA playoffs.
Baseball is about to start up and will have 50 to 75 thousand in stadiums. Are they being asked to cancel also?
There has been word that the games could be played in empty stadiums. They (the networks and the NCAA) are going to move heaven and earth to avoid cancelling a single game. If they have to forego the gate to ensure they still get the televised tourney... empty stadiums is what we'll see I think. Don't know what the NBA is going to do since their games are so geographically spread out.
Baseball games are already being played in empty stadiums in Japan.
tmay said: "A Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendation, advising elderly and immuno-compromised Americans to avoid flying on commercial airlines due to the coronavirus, was overruled by the White House, a federal official told The Associated Press under condition of anonymity."
But, wouldn't you have that same advice to those people EVERY YEAR for the flu as well, if that were their situation?
I'm in the middle.... this is absolutely serious for certain people, just as are many other types of illness. And, having one more, means you should probably be more careful. But, I think the media-induced mass-hysteria over this one is getting out of control. (That said, now that all the powers that be have their $8B+ allocated, I'd imagine it should all start tapering off and maybe be done by about April 6th.)
tmay said: They used an overall CFR of 0.5% vs mine of 1%.
I suspect we'll be seeing more updates soon (with even lower numbers). And, while I'm not an investment expert, if I had the cash, I think I'd be buying stocks to catch the rebound. Just saying. (I sure wish I had the cash, because the stock market seems quite easy to read... just assume they know zero about investment, are mostly day-traders, and watch the 'news.')
Well, see above about where I'd be putting my cash if I had it... but if you want to make a friendly bet of public "sorry, you were right" here on the forums, I'm in.
tmay said: "A Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendation, advising elderly and immuno-compromised Americans to avoid flying on commercial airlines due to the coronavirus, was overruled by the White House, a federal official told The Associated Press under condition of anonymity."
But, wouldn't you have that same advice to those people EVERY YEAR for the flu as well, if that were their situation?
I'm in the middle.... this is absolutely serious for certain people, just as are many other types of illness. And, having one more, means you should probably be more careful. But, I think the media-induced mass-hysteria over this one is getting out of control. (That said, now that all the powers that be have their $8B+ allocated, I'd imagine it should all start tapering off and maybe be done by about April 6th.)
No, because a person with the flu not only knows they have the flu but is likely too sick to be flying.
The Corona virus appears to be far more contagious because that same person can have it for 2 or maybe even 3 weeks before they come down with a fever -- and be spreading it to every one they meet.
And, there is another factor contributing to its infection rate: since it is a new virus, there is no immunity from it in the human population. So, without even a vaccine, our bodies are left to struggle on its own with a new enemy it has never faced before.
And, while the overall mortality is not hugely higher than that of the flu, at 15% for those over 80, it is a serious illness.
And, the so called "media induced mass hysteria" is simply more propaganda from the lying politicians who failed to prepare for this epidemic. When countries have to quarantine entire regions of their country and shut down major functions -- schools, industry, etc... it is not mass hysteria, it is serious. And, anybody who tells you otherwise is bullshitting you.
GeorgeBMac said: No, because a person with the flu not only knows they have the flu but is likely too sick to be flying.
The Corona virus appears to be far more contagious because that same person can have it for 2 or maybe even 3 weeks before they come down with a fever -- and be spreading it to every one they meet.
Yes, I agree that such behavior would make it more dangerous in terms of spread, though I've heard conflicting information on whether that is actually the case or not (and from people working in the public health sector who should be as informed - or more so - than the nightly news).
GeorgeBMac said: And, the so called "media induced mass hysteria" is simply more propaganda from the lying politicians who failed to prepare for this epidemic. When countries have to quarantine entire regions of their country and shut down major functions -- schools, industry, etc... it is not mass hysteria, it is serious. And, anybody who tells you otherwise is bullshitting you.
Maybe they are just being cautious? Why not the same impact on the USA/Canada so far?
But, we'll see, I guess. Now that pharma got their $billions I suspect we'll see some of the hysteria dying down. But, maybe I'm just too much a cynic. (Not that I wouldn't be justified... bird flu, swine flu, Zika, Ebola, etc. Notice a pattern? We're all going to die!!! $ transferred. Guess that's over.)
GeorgeBMac said: No, because a person with the flu not only knows they have the flu but is likely too sick to be flying.
The Corona virus appears to be far more contagious because that same person can have it for 2 or maybe even 3 weeks before they come down with a fever -- and be spreading it to every one they meet.
Yes, I agree that such behavior would make it more dangerous in terms of spread, though I've heard conflicting information on whether that is actually the case or not (and from people working in the public health sector who should be as informed - or more so - than the nightly news).
GeorgeBMac said: And, the so called "media induced mass hysteria" is simply more propaganda from the lying politicians who failed to prepare for this epidemic. When countries have to quarantine entire regions of their country and shut down major functions -- schools, industry, etc... it is not mass hysteria, it is serious. And, anybody who tells you otherwise is bullshitting you.
Maybe they are just being cautious? Why not the same impact on the USA/Canada so far?
But, we'll see, I guess. Now that pharma got their $billions I suspect we'll see some of the hysteria dying down. But, maybe I'm just too much a cynic. (Not that I wouldn't be justified... bird flu, swine flu, Zika, Ebola, etc. Notice a pattern? We're all going to die!!! $ transferred. Guess that's over.)
Aren't masks worn to prevent spreading something YOU have? (ie. they don't help much to prevent you from catching something) Presumably the medical professionals would stay home if they have it.
And, the problem with simple math, models, etc. is that you have to get the inputs/assumptions right.
Comments
Well, I guess I'd cite the boy who cried wolf, general unreliability of the mainstream media, and stuff like the above. I think I'm taking it as seriously as it needs to be taken at this point.
But, yeah, we have to still have to pay attention. One of these days something will come along and we'll all just be thinking... oh, it's just another Ebola, etc.
Yes, there are reports of people with light symptoms who simply gut it out till they recover -- like most people do with the flu (no doctor and no hospital is involved).
But this virus also reportedly has a twist where the person can be infected and infectious for up to 2-3 weeks before any symptoms appear and they realize that they are sick. They can infect a LOT of people during that time. Plus, it means that we need to treat it the same as health workers treat HIV: just assume that everybody has it.
While I have not heard any official agency refute that scenario, neither have I heard any publicly confirm it and respond to it. It almost seems like they don't want to deal with a problem for which they have no answer.
https://www.jpost.com/International/White-House-overrules-CDC-coronavirus-advice-for-elderly-to-avoid-flights-620150
"A Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendation, advising elderly and immuno-compromised Americans to avoid flying on commercial airlines due to the coronavirus, was overruled by the White House, a federal official told The Associated Press under condition of anonymity."
Yeah, other countries are interested in how the U.S. deals with Coronavirus.
They used an overall CFR of 0.5% vs mine of 1%.
I'm not so sure that other countries are looking to us for leadership here. They know we fumbled the ball and are proceeding on their own. South Korea is testing hundreds of thousands and even has drive through testing stations. Italy has quarantined an entire region (although far less stringently than China did). In fact, I have to laugh: they block residents from getting to other parts of Italy -- but leave the airport open to other countries!
I agree that South Korea is doing a good job, considering the tough start they had due to the "church" members.
Singapore has done an exceptional job, yet they still have a small number of new cases to deal with.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/us-isnt-ready-whats-about-happen/607636/
The U.S. Isn’t Ready for What’s About to Happen
Even with a robust government response to the novel coronavirus, many people will be in peril. And the United States is anything but prepared.
2) DoD is a public health expert? None of them knows any more than public health experts. Have any public health agencies — e.g., CDC — predicted this? If so, please do post a link as that would be helpful.
I'm in the middle.... this is absolutely serious for certain people, just as are many other types of illness. And, having one more, means you should probably be more careful. But, I think the media-induced mass-hysteria over this one is getting out of control. (That said, now that all the powers that be have their $8B+ allocated, I'd imagine it should all start tapering off and maybe be done by about April 6th.)
And, here's the Admiral with an update:
http://adam.curry.com/enc/1583696372.937_adm.brettgiroirassistantsecretaryforhealthathhssayscovid-19mortalityratewillbepoint1and1pointoh.wav
I suspect we'll be seeing more updates soon (with even lower numbers). And, while I'm not an investment expert, if I had the cash, I think I'd be buying stocks to catch the rebound. Just saying. (I sure wish I had the cash, because the stock market seems quite easy to read... just assume they know zero about investment, are mostly day-traders, and watch the 'news.')
Well, see above about where I'd be putting my cash if I had it... but if you want to make a friendly bet of public "sorry, you were right" here on the forums, I'm in.
No, because a person with the flu not only knows they have the flu but is likely too sick to be flying.
Maybe they are just being cautious? Why not the same impact on the USA/Canada so far?
But, we'll see, I guess. Now that pharma got their $billions I suspect we'll see some of the hysteria dying down. But, maybe I'm just too much a cynic. (Not that I wouldn't be justified... bird flu, swine flu, Zika, Ebola, etc. Notice a pattern? We're all going to die!!! $ transferred. Guess that's over.)
and
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/
and
Aren't masks worn to prevent spreading something YOU have? (ie. they don't help much to prevent you from catching something) Presumably the medical professionals would stay home if they have it.
And, the problem with simple math, models, etc. is that you have to get the inputs/assumptions right.
https://wmbriggs.com/post/29830/
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894