From cancellations to delays, how COVID-19 is shaking up the tech industry

Posted:
in General Discussion edited March 2020
The novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, has rattled industries across the world. But it's the tech sector, so heavily dependent on a global supply chain and customer demand, that has seen some of the most significant shake-ups.

Seattle, where Amazon's headquarters are located, is among the U.S. cities most impacted by COVID-19.
Seattle, where Amazon's headquarters are located, is among the U.S. cities most impacted by COVID-19.


As you may expect, we've talked a lot about how Apple has been impacted by the COVID-19 virus. But, the impact is wide-ranging, and impacts the tech industry across the board, depending on how they are most exposed. From high-profile event cancellations to production delays of upcoming products, here are the ways that the global COVID-19 outbreak has impacted the technology industry.

Declining technology production

Given China's status as the epicenter of technology manufacturing, the COVID-19 outbreak has hit the global smartphone market particularly hard.

Factory closures and delays in production, as well as dampened demand in China, have led to Apple cutting its revenue guidance for the quarter. Many of Apple's suppliers are also predicting similar guidance misses.

Those production issues may also be causing supply of replacement iPhones and service parts to be drying up, although Foxconn, Apple's primary assembler, expects to get back up to speed by the end of March.

Huawei, the largest Chinese smartphone manufacturer, is expecting shipments to drop at least 20% this year due to U.S. sanctions. The Information reported in March that the coronavirus could make that outlook much worse.

It's likely that other Chinese brands are seeing similar impacts, though many are trying to save face. Oppo said in February that its production is running smoothly thanks to overseas operations, and Xiaomi reported a first-quarter hit due to the virus.

As COVID-19 spreads to other manufacturing centers, non-Chinese companies have taken preventative measures as well. Samsung, which produces some of its smartphones in South Korea, is moving portions of its production lines to Vietnam after another Korean staff member tested positive for the virus, Reuters reported.

On March 1, IDC forecast that the global smartphone market could slide as much as 10.6% year-over-year. Domestic shipments within China could see a hit as large as 40%, though supply chain issues will impact other markets.

It isn't just smartphones that are being hit, either. Facebook is expecting production delays of its Oculus virtual reality headset, and Microsoft has warned investors that its segment containing products like Windows and Surface devices would likely miss earlier forecasts.

A recent report via analytics firm TrendForce has also predicted major impacts on smartwatches, laptops and smart speakers. Smartwatch shipments in particular may drop as much as 16% from prior expectations.

The impact on the manufacturing industry is sure to be felt globally, but it's Chinese companies that could stand to lose the most. With both domestic customer bases and local supply chains, there's little doubt that COVID-19 is wreaking havoc on the Chinese tech market, particularly since it's the country with the largest outbreak.

As an example, TrendForce's report indicates that the Chinese 5G rollout could be slowed due to several optical fiber manufacturers being located in Wuhan, where the virus originated.

While foreign companies may see product delays and snarled shipments, it's likely that they'll be able to absorb any short-term impact. Even Apple, historically dependent on China, has a global supply chain. But China's market, and its position as the world's factory, may not be able to shrug off the effects of COVID-19 in the long term.

Closed offices, remote workers

Many tech firms were forced to close retail stores and offices, while others are encouraging employees to work from home.
Many tech firms were forced to close retail stores and offices, while others are encouraging employees to work from home.


In February, virtually every large technology company with locations in China were forced to shut down operations. That included the closing of corporate offices and stores, as well as the aforementioned supply chain shutdown. Apple, for example, closed all 42 of its stores in the country.

The shuttering of corporate office locations has also had an effect on some companies' ability to carry out routine tasks. Xiaomi, for example, failed to get an Android 10 update out on time, likely due to office closures.

As the coronavirus spread to other countries, similar measures were taken. Some Apple retail locations in Italy have been closed, and Google is reported to have closed some of its offices in Taiwan and Hong Kong.
Apple, for its part, has also committed to carrying out "deep cleaning" procedures at vulnerable Apple Store locations.

Many tech firms are also implementing restrictions on travel and in-office work in an effort to control the spread of the virus.

Apple has implemented travel restrictions to China, South Korea and Italy, barring travel to "business-critical" trips signed off by a senior vice president. The Cupertino firm has also sent care packages to staff members stranded in China.

Facebook and Google have made similar moves, though Facebook doesn't maintain any offices in China.

Several companies with offices in Washington, such as Facebook, Salesforce and Microsoft, have asked employees to work from home. Among U.S. states, Washington has been hit the hardest by COVID-19 with 70 confirmed cases and 10 deaths as of March 6.

U.S. companies in other states, as well as corporations in other countries, have also implemented new work-from-home policies. Apple on March 6 began encouraging employees near its Cupertino head quarters to work from home, just a day after Santa Clara County urged tech giants to avoid mass gatherings.

Even as fears of the virus wane over time, it's likely that this major shift could have a lasting impact on how people work. With what is essentially an overnight change, many companies in the U.S. and across the globe are likely to embrace remote work much more wholeheartedly, particularly if productivity and operations go smoothly during the outbreak.

Cancelled events

The coronavirus has also derailed plans for most many tech events and conferences within the first half of 2020, a trend that could continue later into the year.

Organizers canceled Mobile World Congress, the largest smartphone trade show in the world, in February. While the Barcelona, Spain event was the first high-profile cancellation, it mostly signaled what was to come.

Facebook and Google have both canceled their annual developer conferences, F8 and I/O respectively. While nothing has been said about Apple's potential upcoming events, it's profoundly likely that the company will follow a similar route for expected keynotes and WWDC '20.

Smaller nixed events include Adobe's Adobe Summit in Las Vegas, which will be offered partially online this year, and Facebook's March marketing conference. Google also made its annual cloud conference to an online-only event.

Not all upcoming events have been canceled. The Game Developers Conference in San Francisco was merely postponed until later in the year, even though high-profile attendees like Amazon, Microsoft, Sony and EA have pulled out.

The annual SXSW festival in Austin, Texas has yet to be canceled, but many tech industry firms have dropped out. As of March 6, the drop-out list includes not just Apple, but TikTok, Amazon, Twitter and Facebook.

Other effects

While COVID-19 is having a global impact, it's likely that Chinese companies will see the brunt of the effects.
While COVID-19 is having a global impact, it's likely that Chinese companies will see the brunt of the effects.


As publishing platforms, some companies have also had to take action against coronavirus and COVID-19 myths and scams.

Amazon, for example, has had to remove thousands of items for price gouging practices during the outbreak. The retail giant also removed millions of item listings with coronavirus misinformation or false claims.

Facebook, too, has banned ads promising COVID-19 cures. It is also offering free ads to the World Health Organization to get accurate information out there.

U.S. stock markets have also seen a chaotic few weeks in February and March as markets tumble due to concerns about COVID-19's impact on the economy, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Some companies have seen that as an opportunity. The dip has allowed Apple to buy back billions of dollars worth of shares much more cheaply than it otherwise would have.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 37
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 10,309member
    I'm wondering if this is short term pain for a long term gain.
    Increasingly we are hearing about the possibility of school closures to protect kids and staff.   But should that even be necessary?

    When I look at the 10-15 pound backpack my 7th grade grandson brings home filled with binders and paper -- and then sit down with him to do his homework using pencil and paper I realize things have not changed since I was 7th grade nearly 60 years ago.  (Well, the backpack is new, we didn't use them -- and the homework is harder -- but otherwise its pretty much the same ol, same ol stuff.

    ALL of that should be paperless and online.  And, teachers should have the ability to teach remotely.   So, all the technology is already there for teachers to teach their kids remotely from their homes.

    My grandson goes one of the top schools in the state and it is very well funded -- it is in no way deprived.
    But, in a way, maybe that's the problem:   in this area teachers and administrators can make 6 digit salaries along with cadillac health and pension plans.   I suspect that they just don't want to rock the boat.

    Maybe Apple should rock that boat for them?  It has the money, the technology and the resources.
  • Reply 2 of 37
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 10,309member

    While COVID-19 is having a global impact, it's likely that Chinese companies will see the brunt of the effects.



    I'm not sure why they would say that.   The virus has peaked over there and businesses are returning to normal operations --  and their stock markets seem to have held up well.

    Is AI speculating that the west will be so decimated that Chinese exports are affected?
    Or, is it that China is now mostly worried about importing the virus from the west and could go though it all again?

    edited March 2020
  • Reply 3 of 37
    Well lets see March Madness is about to start. Are they being called on to cancel the games. The areas will have 10 to 12 thousand in them. Same question as to NBA playoffs. Baseball is about to start up and will have 50 to 75 thousand in stadiums. Are they being asked to cancel also?
  • Reply 4 of 37
    Well lets see March Madness is about to start. Are they being called on to cancel the games. The areas will have 10 to 12 thousand in them. Same question as to NBA playoffs. Baseball is about to start up and will have 50 to 75 thousand in stadiums. Are they being asked to cancel also?
    There has been word that the games could be played in empty stadiums.  They (the networks and the NCAA) are going to move heaven and earth to avoid cancelling a single game.  If they have to forego the gate to ensure they still get the televised tourney... empty stadiums is what we'll see I think.  Don't know what the NBA is going to do since their games are so geographically spread out.
  • Reply 5 of 37
    Anilu_777Anilu_777 Posts: 269member
    Why is it that no-one takes all these precautions for the seasonal flu? Tens of millions catch it, tens of thousands die and no shutdowns.  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
    It just seems that the reaction is overblown and hyped up. People stocking up on masks etc are causing shortages at healthcare centres. It’s ridiculous. 
    edited March 2020 cgWerks
  • Reply 6 of 37
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 10,309member
    Anilu_777 said:
    Why is it that no-one takes all these precautions for the seasonal flu? Tens of millions catch it, tens of thousands die and no shutdowns.  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
    It just seems that the reaction is overblown and hyped up. People stocking up on masks etc are causing shortages at healthcare centres. It’s ridiculous. 

    That is a very good question.   And it's one for which I have not heard any official answer.

    My theory is that with the flu, you know that you have the flu and so do others (runny nose, run down, etc...) but Corona is sneaky.  A person can have it and be infectious for up to 2 weeks (maybe longer?) before they or anybody else knows it.  And, in that time they can infect hundreds of others.

    That is perhaps the main reason why the lack of preparation and lack of testing kits in the U.S. is such a crime:   there are only two ways to contain the virus:  mass quaratines and restrictions and/or early detection through testing.   The U.S. has almost no testing kits and even those are faulty.   Meanwhile China and South Korea are testing hundreds of thousands.   South Korea even has drive through testing:  You don't even get out of your car -- they test you in minutes as your drive through the line (although I suspect that the results might take hours or days to come back).
  • Reply 7 of 37
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,435member
    Anilu_777 said:
    Why is it that no-one takes all these precautions for the seasonal flu? Tens of millions catch it, tens of thousands die and no shutdowns.  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
    It just seems that the reaction is overblown and hyped up. People stocking up on masks etc are causing shortages at healthcare centres. It’s ridiculous. 

    That is a very good question.   And it's one for which I have not heard any official answer.

    My theory is that with the flu, you know that you have the flu and so do others (runny nose, run down, etc...) but Corona is sneaky.  A person can have it and be infectious for up to 2 weeks (maybe longer?) before they or anybody else knows it.  And, in that time they can infect hundreds of others.

    That is perhaps the main reason why the lack of preparation and lack of testing kits in the U.S. is such a crime:   there are only two ways to contain the virus:  mass quaratines and restrictions and/or early detection through testing.   The U.S. has almost no testing kits and even those are faulty.   Meanwhile China and South Korea are testing hundreds of thousands.   South Korea even has drive through testing:  You don't even get out of your car -- they test you in minutes as your drive through the line (although I suspect that the results might take hours or days to come back).

    There are in fact vaccines that are targeted at what is expected to be the seasonal flu variant for the year, and even for those that get vaccination, and yet still get the flu, the vaccinated tends to have it milder . The fact that people don't even take advantage of available flu shots is puzzling. There is no vaccine available for SARS-nCOV-19.

    The response to SARS-nCOV-19, the official name for this variant of Coronavirus, is appropriate for the simple reason that there are so many unknowns about transmission, and it is known that the mortality rate is at least a magnitude higher than seasonal flu.

    I will note that you were one of those berating me for providing information weeks ago, stating it was "right wing propaganda" and "fear mongering". I'm happy that you have now come around. 

    Oh, and this very much did effect China's economy,, and still is, and that is one of the concerns with how the Coronavirus has been handled in the U.S., that it will drive the economy into recession, so don't talk about it.
    edited March 2020 avon b7
  • Reply 8 of 37
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 6,268administrator
    Anilu_777 said:
    Why is it that no-one takes all these precautions for the seasonal flu? Tens of millions catch it, tens of thousands die and no shutdowns.  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
    It just seems that the reaction is overblown and hyped up. People stocking up on masks etc are causing shortages at healthcare centres. It’s ridiculous. 
    Beyond the death rate that is low in young adult window, but an order of magnitude or two higher than the flu as you get older, keep in mind that this is above and beyond the already busy flu season. So, a healthcare system in country of your choice that is already running close to capacity will have to deal with the influx of patients.
  • Reply 9 of 37
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 10,309member
    tmay said:
    Anilu_777 said:
    Why is it that no-one takes all these precautions for the seasonal flu? Tens of millions catch it, tens of thousands die and no shutdowns.  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
    It just seems that the reaction is overblown and hyped up. People stocking up on masks etc are causing shortages at healthcare centres. It’s ridiculous. 

    That is a very good question.   And it's one for which I have not heard any official answer.

    My theory is that with the flu, you know that you have the flu and so do others (runny nose, run down, etc...) but Corona is sneaky.  A person can have it and be infectious for up to 2 weeks (maybe longer?) before they or anybody else knows it.  And, in that time they can infect hundreds of others.

    That is perhaps the main reason why the lack of preparation and lack of testing kits in the U.S. is such a crime:   there are only two ways to contain the virus:  mass quaratines and restrictions and/or early detection through testing.   The U.S. has almost no testing kits and even those are faulty.   Meanwhile China and South Korea are testing hundreds of thousands.   South Korea even has drive through testing:  You don't even get out of your car -- they test you in minutes as your drive through the line (although I suspect that the results might take hours or days to come back).

    ...
    I will note that you were one of those berating me for providing information weeks ago, stating it was "right wing propaganda" and "fear mongering". I'm happy that you have now come around. 

    Oh, and this very much did effect China's economy,, and still is, and that is one of the concerns with how the Coronavirus has been handled in the U.S., that it will drive the economy into recession, so don't talk about it.

    One intelligent post does not clear you of being a prolific spreader of right wing propaganda.

    Well, it was intelligent till you returned to your usual China bashing based on the typical half truths from right wing propaganda sites.
    SoliFileMakerFeller
  • Reply 10 of 37
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 5,907member
    Yesterday I was speaking to some Spanish GPs (morning) and business executives from the plastics industry (afternoon).

    The current Spanish COVID-19 protocol looks like  the standard protocol used in other countries.

    If a patient presents information such as recent travel history to high risk areas along with a fever etc, they are sent home and told to isolate themselves until a specialist can visit them to take a buccal swab. From that point there is a 12 hour wait for the result. The GP who saw the patient is also sent home for the same treatment. All medical courses, conferences etc have been cancelled and the general recommendation is for doctors not to 'socialise' with other doctors away from their regular duties.

    On the business side, I have been told that many non-essential business trips have been cancelled and access to factories is restricted to essential personnel only. There is a level of uncertainty regarding what could happen if a factory employee were to test positive, because it is not clear if the factory would be obliged to close by government. Some of the heavyweight players fear having to shut down factories with hundreds or thousands of workers and see their business lost to smaller competitors. As things stand, primary plastics transformers have increased production to maximum capacity and are looking to stockpile. Secondary transformers are doing exactly the same and all the while, end consumers are also stockpiling. After all this, there will clearly be a dip in sales as a result of the virus dropping out of the news and people using up their stockpiles of bottled water, soft drinks and other plastics related foodstuffs.

    Some of the larger companies are already thinking ahead and planning to decentralise some production facilities to better protect them from exceptional circumstances even though this will impact efficiencies.

    There was a huge explosion at a petrochemical plant in Tarragona in January which caused severe disruption although it was not catastrophic on an industry level. The explosion was so big, a one ton piece of metal was sent flying into a third floor flat - 2.5 kilometres away.

    https://www.fireengineering.com/2020/03/06/485127/violent-explosion-rocks-mediterranean-coastal-city-of-tarragona/#gref

    Another factor is climate change resulting in extreme weather conditions and logistics headaches.

    Some companies are realising that if it isn't one thing, it will be another but it is impossible to know what will hit and when. Virus, accident, weather, politics etc. As a result, duplicating expensive production hardware (and everything associated with it) is being looked at for the future.

    I checked on raw material supply and was told that companies like Repsol and Dow hadn't yet been affected with regards to plastics.
    edited March 2020 GeorgeBMacFileMakerFeller
  • Reply 11 of 37
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 10,309member
    avon b7 said:
    Yesterday I was speaking to some Spanish GPs (morning) and business executives from the plastics industry (afternoon).

    The current Spanish COVID-19 protocol looks like  the standard protocol used in other countries.

    If a patient presents information such as recent travel history to high risk areas along with a fever etc, they are sent home and told to isolate themselves until a specialist can visit them to take a buccal swab. From that point there is a 12 hour wait for the result. The GP who saw the patient is also sent home for the same treatment. All medical courses, conferences etc have been cancelled and the general recommendation is for doctors not to 'socialise' with other doctors away from their regular duties.

    On the business side, I have been told that many non-essential business trips have been cancelled and access to factories is restricted to essential personnel only. There is a level of uncertainty regarding what could happen if a factory employee were to test positive, because it is not clear if the factory would be obliged to close by government. Some of the heavyweight players fear having to shut down factories with hundreds or thousands of workers and see their business lost to smaller competitors. As things stand, primary plastics transformers have increased production to maximum capacity and are looking to stockpile. Secondary transformers are doing exactly the same and all the while, end consumers are also stockpiling. After all this, there will clearly be a dip in sales as a result of the virus dropping out of the news and people using up their stockpiles of bottled water, soft drinks and other plastics related foodstuffs.

    Some of the larger companies are already thinking ahead and planning to decentralise some production facilities to better protect them from exceptional circumstances even though this will impact efficiencies.

    There was a huge explosion at a petrochemical plant in Tarragona in January which caused severe disruption although it was not catastrophic on an industry level. The explosion was so big, a one ton piece of metal was sent flying into a third floor flat - 2.5 kilometres away.

    https://www.fireengineering.com/2020/03/06/485127/violent-explosion-rocks-mediterranean-coastal-city-of-tarragona/#gref

    Another factor is climate change resulting in extreme weather conditions and logistics headaches.

    Some companies are realising that if it isn't one thing, it will be another but it is impossible to know what will hit and when. Virus, accident, weather, politics etc. As a result, duplicating expensive production hardware (and everything associated with it) is being looked at for the future.

    I checked on raw material supply and was told that companies like Repsol and Dow hadn't yet been affected with regards to plastics.

    It seems to me that the only effective management method is massive early testing -- such as testing every person as they enter the workplace -- or possibly as they leave the workplace so the results can be back before they re-enter it the next day.  Currently, "the test" is simply to wait till they show symptoms -- but by then they may have infected half of the workplace.

    But, it seems likely that politics will play as big a role in how this virus is managed as does science.   As much as I detest her, Cortez made a good point:  Many food workers cannot see a healthcare provider if they think they may be infected because they risk deportation.
  • Reply 12 of 37
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,435member
    tmay said:
    Anilu_777 said:
    Why is it that no-one takes all these precautions for the seasonal flu? Tens of millions catch it, tens of thousands die and no shutdowns.  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
    It just seems that the reaction is overblown and hyped up. People stocking up on masks etc are causing shortages at healthcare centres. It’s ridiculous. 

    That is a very good question.   And it's one for which I have not heard any official answer.

    My theory is that with the flu, you know that you have the flu and so do others (runny nose, run down, etc...) but Corona is sneaky.  A person can have it and be infectious for up to 2 weeks (maybe longer?) before they or anybody else knows it.  And, in that time they can infect hundreds of others.

    That is perhaps the main reason why the lack of preparation and lack of testing kits in the U.S. is such a crime:   there are only two ways to contain the virus:  mass quaratines and restrictions and/or early detection through testing.   The U.S. has almost no testing kits and even those are faulty.   Meanwhile China and South Korea are testing hundreds of thousands.   South Korea even has drive through testing:  You don't even get out of your car -- they test you in minutes as your drive through the line (although I suspect that the results might take hours or days to come back).

    ...
    I will note that you were one of those berating me for providing information weeks ago, stating it was "right wing propaganda" and "fear mongering". I'm happy that you have now come around. 

    Oh, and this very much did effect China's economy,, and still is, and that is one of the concerns with how the Coronavirus has been handled in the U.S., that it will drive the economy into recession, so don't talk about it.

    One intelligent post does not clear you of being a prolific spreader of right wing propaganda.

    Well, it was intelligent till you returned to your usual China bashing based on the typical half truths from right wing propaganda sites.
    Facts have bias, at least that's how you see it.

    Me, they are just facts.

    https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/07/WS5e3d1ea5a310128217275d9b.html

    "BEIJING - Italy has agreed to temporarily resume some flights with China after it suspended direct air traffic between the two countries last month, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Friday.

    According to a statement on the ministry's website, Vice Foreign Minister Qin Gang had a meeting with Italian Ambassador to China Luca Ferrari Thursday.

    Qin said that after the novel coronavirus outbreak, Italy's unilateral decision to stop flights without previously contacting China has resulted in great inconvenience to travelers from both countries and many Chinese citizens are still stranded in Italy.

    China urges the Italian side to actively respond to China's urgent and reasonable concerns, and cancel the decision to suspend flights as soon as possible.

    For his part, Ferrari said Italy sympathizes with and understands the situation facing Chinese citizens stranded in Italy. For now, it is willing to approve the resumption of some flights upon Chinese airlines' application, and work hard to normalize exchanges between the two countries."

    Note the date of the link; February 7, 2020, right in the middle of the outbreak in China.


    and then there is this;


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/italy-democratic-leader-nicola-zingaretti-coronavirus

    "Nicola Zingaretti, the leader of Italy’s Democratic party, one of the national ruling parties, has tested positive for coronavirus.

    Zingaretti, who is also president of the Lazio region, made the announcement in a Facebook video.

    “So, it’s arrived, I also have coronavirus,” he said. “I am fine, and therefore I am in quarantine at home. From here, I’ll continue to do what I can do. My family are also following the protocols, and ASL [the local health authority] is contacting people who have worked closely [with me] in recent days to carry out checks. I have always said ‘don’t panic’ and that we will fight this.”

    ...


    "Italy is grappling to contain Europe’s worst outbreak of the virus, with 4,636 cases detected as of Friday evening, according to official figures. Of that number, 197 people have died and 523 people have recovered. Italy has so far carried out 36,359 tests.

    Eleven towns – 10 in Lombardy and one in Veneto – have been under lockdown for almost two weeks. The government is yet to announce whether the quarantine period will be extended. Schools and universities across the country have been closed until 15 March while major sporting events, such as Serie A football games, will be played behind closed doors until 3 April.

    The outbreak is severely damaging the Italian economy, with warnings the tourism sector alone could experience €7.4bn (£6.4bn) of losses during this trimester."


    Fuck China's "inconvenience". Italy has enough problems with the coronavirus without breaking containment protocol.
    edited March 2020
  • Reply 13 of 37
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,228member
    In a few months, this will be gone. Tech will face a couple of quarters of hiccups, our typical short-termism will lead to collective breathless bleating over those 180 days that the sky is falling, the end is nigh, we’re all lemmings headed over the cliff, etc etc, but a couple of years from now, mention of “COVID-19” will be met with blank stares.

    That said, this is the kick-in-the-butt canary in the coalmine that tech companies need to GET OUT China, and fast. I think that globalization and concentration of the supply chain has finally met its match in wet markets and culinary traditions. The latter are not going to change any time soon. Companies that don’t do it will be in deep doo-doo when COVID-20 comes around (as it surely will some day).
  • Reply 14 of 37
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 6,268administrator
    In a few months, this will be gone. Tech will face a couple of quarters of hiccups, our typical short-termism will lead to collective breathless bleating over those 180 days that the sky is falling, the end is nigh, we’re all lemmings headed over the cliff, etc etc, but a couple of years from now, mention of “COVID-19” will be met with blank stares.

    That said, this is the kick-in-the-butt canary in the coalmine that tech companies need to GET OUT China, and fast. I think that globalization and concentration of the supply chain has finally met its match in wet markets and culinary traditions. The latter are not going to change any time soon. Companies that don’t do it will be in deep doo-doo when COVID-20 comes around (as it surely will some day).
    The Department of Defense and the American Hospital Association disagrees with your assessment. Both are readying for a second wave starting in December-January 2021.

    A couple of years from now, maybe. Not this year, and not next.
    edited March 2020 tmay13485
  • Reply 15 of 37
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,435member
    In a few months, this will be gone. Tech will face a couple of quarters of hiccups, our typical short-termism will lead to collective breathless bleating over those 180 days that the sky is falling, the end is nigh, we’re all lemmings headed over the cliff, etc etc, but a couple of years from now, mention of “COVID-19” will be met with blank stares.

    That said, this is the kick-in-the-butt canary in the coalmine that tech companies need to GET OUT China, and fast. I think that globalization and concentration of the supply chain has finally met its match in wet markets and culinary traditions. The latter are not going to change any time soon. Companies that don’t do it will be in deep doo-doo when COVID-20 comes around (as it surely will some day).
    The Department of Defense and the American Hospital Association disagrees with your assessment. Both are readying for a second wave starting in December-January 2021.

    A couple of years from now, maybe. Not this year, and not next.
    Thank you...
  • Reply 16 of 37
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 10,309member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    Anilu_777 said:
    Why is it that no-one takes all these precautions for the seasonal flu? Tens of millions catch it, tens of thousands die and no shutdowns.  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
    It just seems that the reaction is overblown and hyped up. People stocking up on masks etc are causing shortages at healthcare centres. It’s ridiculous. 

    That is a very good question.   And it's one for which I have not heard any official answer.

    My theory is that with the flu, you know that you have the flu and so do others (runny nose, run down, etc...) but Corona is sneaky.  A person can have it and be infectious for up to 2 weeks (maybe longer?) before they or anybody else knows it.  And, in that time they can infect hundreds of others.

    That is perhaps the main reason why the lack of preparation and lack of testing kits in the U.S. is such a crime:   there are only two ways to contain the virus:  mass quaratines and restrictions and/or early detection through testing.   The U.S. has almost no testing kits and even those are faulty.   Meanwhile China and South Korea are testing hundreds of thousands.   South Korea even has drive through testing:  You don't even get out of your car -- they test you in minutes as your drive through the line (although I suspect that the results might take hours or days to come back).

    ...
    I will note that you were one of those berating me for providing information weeks ago, stating it was "right wing propaganda" and "fear mongering". I'm happy that you have now come around. 

    Oh, and this very much did effect China's economy,, and still is, and that is one of the concerns with how the Coronavirus has been handled in the U.S., that it will drive the economy into recession, so don't talk about it.

    One intelligent post does not clear you of being a prolific spreader of right wing propaganda.

    Well, it was intelligent till you returned to your usual China bashing based on the typical half truths from right wing propaganda sites.
    Facts have bias, at least that's how you see it.

    Me, they are just facts.



    Anybody can use Google search to gather facts to support a false statement.   That's mostly how propaganda works:   It's not blatant lies.  It's half truths, one-sided stories and exaggerations gathered to make a falsehood sound true.
  • Reply 17 of 37
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 10,309member
    In a few months, this will be gone. Tech will face a couple of quarters of hiccups, our typical short-termism will lead to collective breathless bleating over those 180 days that the sky is falling, the end is nigh, we’re all lemmings headed over the cliff, etc etc, but a couple of years from now, mention of “COVID-19” will be met with blank stares.

    That said, this is the kick-in-the-butt canary in the coalmine that tech companies need to GET OUT China, and fast. I think that globalization and concentration of the supply chain has finally met its match in wet markets and culinary traditions. The latter are not going to change any time soon. Companies that don’t do it will be in deep doo-doo when COVID-20 comes around (as it surely will some day).
    Hopefully, but at the moment it could be only ramping up here in the U.S. since we have no way of knowing how many infected people are running around loose, not even aware that they are infected.

    And, beyond that, it is spreading now throughout the world.  The U.S. can isolate itself from one or two countries -- but to isolate itself from the world may create more problems than the virus does.  Plus, since the stock market seems to be the primary concern, we wouldn't do that anyway.

    We may have to live with it until a vaccine is developed -- which may not happen for a year.

    In the meantime, some have been looking for way to reduce Social Security and Medicare expenses.  Corona sounds like it could do the job that some politicians have been seeking for 20 years.

  • Reply 18 of 37
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,435member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    Anilu_777 said:
    Why is it that no-one takes all these precautions for the seasonal flu? Tens of millions catch it, tens of thousands die and no shutdowns.  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
    It just seems that the reaction is overblown and hyped up. People stocking up on masks etc are causing shortages at healthcare centres. It’s ridiculous. 

    That is a very good question.   And it's one for which I have not heard any official answer.

    My theory is that with the flu, you know that you have the flu and so do others (runny nose, run down, etc...) but Corona is sneaky.  A person can have it and be infectious for up to 2 weeks (maybe longer?) before they or anybody else knows it.  And, in that time they can infect hundreds of others.

    That is perhaps the main reason why the lack of preparation and lack of testing kits in the U.S. is such a crime:   there are only two ways to contain the virus:  mass quaratines and restrictions and/or early detection through testing.   The U.S. has almost no testing kits and even those are faulty.   Meanwhile China and South Korea are testing hundreds of thousands.   South Korea even has drive through testing:  You don't even get out of your car -- they test you in minutes as your drive through the line (although I suspect that the results might take hours or days to come back).

    ...
    I will note that you were one of those berating me for providing information weeks ago, stating it was "right wing propaganda" and "fear mongering". I'm happy that you have now come around. 

    Oh, and this very much did effect China's economy,, and still is, and that is one of the concerns with how the Coronavirus has been handled in the U.S., that it will drive the economy into recession, so don't talk about it.

    One intelligent post does not clear you of being a prolific spreader of right wing propaganda.

    Well, it was intelligent till you returned to your usual China bashing based on the typical half truths from right wing propaganda sites.
    Facts have bias, at least that's how you see it.

    Me, they are just facts.



    Anybody can use Google search to gather facts to support a false statement.   That's mostly how propaganda works:   It's not blatant lies.  It's half truths, one-sided stories and exaggerations gathered to make a falsehood sound true.
    You need to take your blinders off. 
  • Reply 19 of 37
    cgWerkscgWerks Posts: 2,720member
    tmay said:
    The response to SARS-nCOV-19, the official name for this variant of Coronavirus, is appropriate for the simple reason that there are so many unknowns about transmission, and it is known that the mortality rate is at least a magnitude higher than seasonal flu.
    We don't actually know that, because we don't know how many have actually been infected. So, the mortality rate is based off a much lower than likely infection level, yielding a higher percentage (but, in error).

    Also, from what I've heard, only around 1% of deaths have been outside of someone with some other condition (ie. old age, compromised immune system, etc.).

    The worrisome thing is the reported longer time you don't know you have it, etc.... or if you believe some of the conspiracy theories about it being a bio-weapon that got loose.

    Based on the hysteria, they really shouldn't have any conferences, conventions, etc. every year and we should all work from home, as we take these risks each year (with the flu and such).
  • Reply 20 of 37
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,435member
    cgWerks said:
    tmay said:
    The response to SARS-nCOV-19, the official name for this variant of Coronavirus, is appropriate for the simple reason that there are so many unknowns about transmission, and it is known that the mortality rate is at least a magnitude higher than seasonal flu.
    We don't actually know that, because we don't know how many have actually been infected. So, the mortality rate is based off a much lower than likely infection level, yielding a higher percentage (but, in error).

    Also, from what I've heard, only around 1% of deaths have been outside of someone with some other condition (ie. old age, compromised immune system, etc.).

    The worrisome thing is the reported longer time you don't know you have it, etc.... or if you believe some of the conspiracy theories about it being a bio-weapon that got loose.

    Based on the hysteria, they really shouldn't have any conferences, conventions, etc. every year and we should all work from home, as we take these risks each year (with the flu and such).
    The mortality rate of seasonal flu is about CFR (Case Fatality Rate) 0.1%, so a 1% CFR or above would be a order of magnitude  or higher for SARS-nCOV-19. That is what I have read that is expected to be the running CFR for SARS-nCOV-19, but that is dependent on treatment of the infected, and an epidemic would stress the available beds, ventilators, and personnel. The highest fatality rates are in seniors above 70, with existing data shows at something on the order of 14%. 

    The worst possible case would be a rapid growth in the infected showing symptoms, since those people will need to be treated. Asymptomatic cases will need to be verified by tests as well with likely self quarantine as the solution, so that they do not continue to infect the rest of the uninfected population. Hence, why testing is so important.

    Why people don't take this seriously is beyond my comprehension, but no matter, there is already an impact on our economy for retail and service workers, and it is quite evident where there are existing clusters such as Kirkland, Washington. If this isn't contained through testing, and has to go to a mitigation strategy, there will be a high price for our economy, not to mention the fatalities.

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/venice-milan-italy-quarantine-coronavirus_n_5e6421f3c5b6670e72f922ea

    About 25% of Italy's population will be quarantined from other parts of the country.
    edited March 2020
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