Apple & Google's contact tracing won't stop COVID-19, but it will help

Posted:
in General Discussion
Using smartphone contact tracing to track and mitigate the spread of COVID-19 has been floated as a possible way out of the outbreak -- but there are plenty of signs suggesting that its effectiveness is an open question.

Smartphone surveillance seems like a promising way to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, but there are major hurdles that it may not be able to overcome. Credit: Giles Lambert.
Smartphone surveillance seems like a promising way to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, but there are major hurdles that it may not be able to overcome. Credit: Giles Lambert.


The coronavirus has upended life for most Americans, and government and private entities are looking for a way out. On Friday, Apple and Google announced a joint initiative to develop systems for cross-platform contact tracing. But there's much more to the conversation, and the probability of the system actually working, than you might see at first glance.

Past attempts at COVID-19 surveillance

A heatmap of smartphones held by Florida beachgoers in March, collected from mobile ad firm X-Mode. Credit: Tectonix
A heatmap of smartphones held by Florida beachgoers in March, collected from mobile ad firm X-Mode. Credit: Tectonix


The U.S. government is already using smartphone location data to track the movements of Americans, per a March story from The Wall Street Journal.

According to the report, the lion's share of that data is sourced from mobile advertising firms, either from location-tracking applications or from app developers who resell the data. Some of it has been provided by Google's "Community Mobility Reports" project, which is collected on an opt-in basis from Google users.

But neither of those data types actually count as contact tracing. The data, stripped of personally identifiable information, is only really useful for keeping tabs on where people are congregating, and the general patterns of movement of large groups of people. It isn't useful for tracking out how and when COVID-19 spreads from person-to-person.

More than that, privacy advocates have long cautioned that this type of location data can never be truly anonymized. In 2019, a research paper published by the University of Washington shows that it was relatively trivial to figure out a specific person's location using location-based ad targeting. On the flip side, unmasking an "anonymous" user is also relatively easy for skilled attackers.

Apple has long been trying to fight against data collection from advertisers and third-party analytics firms. The iOS 13 update, for example, contained new features that Ad Age said "crippled" location-based advertising. Again, that's the same data type provided to the government by marketing firms.

All of this has largely lead to short-range Bluetooth signals being forwarded as the most realistic means to implement contact tracing on a widespread basis. Hence Apple and Google's Friday announcement. But while it does away with some of the pitfalls of mass geo-surveillance, it has its own hurdles to overcome.

The Apple and Google solution

Credit: Apple, Google
Credit: Apple, Google


In a rare show of unity, Apple and Google on Friday announced new plans for a cross-platform, system-level feature that will allow public health officials to track and possibly reduce the spread of COVID-19.

By leveraging short-range Bluetooth signals, the system will help public health officials identify and follow up with smartphone users who have possibly come into contact with someone infected by COVID-19. They'll even receive a notification on their phone that this event occurred.

Both companies are likely highly conscious of their respective privacy reputations, so they both claim that the system is being developed in a private and transparent manner. Out of the gate, they've published documentation illustrating how the system would work, including one document focused on the cryptographic standards used to protect privacy.

Contact tracing can help slow the spread of COVID-19 and can be done without compromising user privacy. We're working with @sundarpichai & @Google to help health officials harness Bluetooth technology in a way that also respects transparency & consent. https://t.co/94XlbmaGZV

-- Tim Cook (@tim_cook)


The initiative will apparently be deployed in two parts. In May, both companies will release a developer API for iOS and Android that app makers and public health teams can use in their own apps to enable contact tracing. Deeper system-level functionality, which will presumably negate the need for a third-party app entirely, will be released "in the coming months."

But while Apple and Google are the most high-profile proponents of Bluetooth contact tracing, they are far from the first to float the idea. Earlier in April, researchers at MIT developed essentially the same system partly inspired by Apple's offline Find My feature.

Contact tracing apps have also already been used in places like Singapore and South Korea, where they reached varying levels of success.

The problems with Bluetooth contact tracing

An illustration of Bluetooth contact tracing. Credit: MIT
An illustration of Bluetooth contact tracing. Credit: MIT


Bluetooth-based contract tracing still has one major downfall. Both Apple and Google made it clear that both waves of contact tracing deployment will be offered on an opt-in basis. The first wave requires that users download an app using the API. The second wave explicitly says users need to "choose to opt in."

Like social distancing, this type of contact tracing absolutely depends on adoption by a significant portion of the population. Otherwise, it won't make much of a difference. The fact that this is being deployed on both iOS and Android certainly helps, but it's not enough to ensure that most people will actually use it, particularly in the U.S.

Unless this type of system is government-mandated, we have serious doubts that enough people are going to volunteer for it to be effective. This is borne out by many states and local governments only starting to ensure compliance with social distancing requirements by force of law when citizens didn't voluntarily adopt suggestions.

On the flip side, government-mandated contact tracing runs into the same privacy and ethical issues as widespread location surveillance, and will likely meet the same resistance that voluntary lock-in did.

And, there are still some signs casting doubt on whether it really will help curb the spread of COVID-19. Just take a look at Singapore, which implemented fastidious physical contact tracing and surveillance methods, along with an app that used a mix of Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, GPS and cell tower signals to track user locations.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that despite the "good contact tracing," the government has been unable to figure out how people are catching COVID-19 for "nearly half" of cases. While initially a "master class" for COVID-19 mitigation success, the BBC reports that there has since been a surge in new cases on the tiny island-state despite control measures.

Singapore is a small country with a population smaller than New York City. Adopting widespread contact tracing in the U.S. may be near impossible, even with the computing and financial might of Apple and Google behind it. Even though its effectiveness in Singapore is questionable, it probably won't do nearly as well in larger countries just because of scale.

And, of course, there are unanswered questions about what will happen to all of these systems and data once the shadow of COVID-19 no longer looms over daily life, as digital rights group The Electronic Frontier Foundation points out. Unless the systems are completely dismantled and the data wiped, the possibility for dragnet surveillance is still there.

Possible ways forward

As we've thoroughly covered, for a contact tracing app to be effective, it needs to be used by at least a majority of citizens. For that, it either needs the trust of the people or it needs to be mandated.

In the U.S., neither of those options seems particularly promising, with trust in both the federal government and technology juggernauts at a relative low. Even pro-privacy Apple may have a hard time persuading people to willingly undergo surveillance.

Even if a simple majority of people sign up for contact tracing, the system likely won't do much for most COVID-19 cases, as is evidenced by cases like Singapore and South Korea. If the government starts requiring the usage of the app or implements it was a prerequisite for testing, there will undoubtedly be a backlash.

Which begs the question of what will actually work, a question many officials in the U.S. are actively trying to answer. Without something of a return to normalcy, the economic impact may well be unimaginable. And if we return to normal too quickly, lives will be lost -- and the economy will still see a major impact.

One of the possible alternatives, per several proposals seen by Vox, is to implement mass coronavirus testing in lieu of surveillance. Like with mass location tracking or contact tracing, that's a herculean effort.

The most realistic way forward is a balanced approach mixing these strategies. But that, of course, is easier said than done. The Apple and Google systems will help because they're privacy-respecting and cross-platform, reducing friction and centralizing data. But it's just piece of a larger puzzle, and past contract tracing attempts suggest it may not be a significant piece.

Until a vaccine is implemented -- something that's at least a full year away according to experts and the companies developing them -- solutions like these are only going to be able to do so much.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 39
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    Yes, voluntary contact tracing is a big, big hole in the system.   So is the lack of widespread community testing to identify those whose contacts need to be traced.

    But, the solution is as obvious as it is simple:   Our federal government needs to step up to the plate and do the right thing.
    stevenoz
  • Reply 2 of 39
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,213member
    Yes, voluntary contact tracing is a big, big hole in the system.   So is the lack of widespread community testing to identify those whose contacts need to be traced.

    But, the solution is as obvious as it is simple:   Our federal government needs to step up to the plate and do the right thing.
    Which is mandatory contact tracing? 
    Of some note Iceland has tested more of its population for coronavirus than anywhere else, yet still just under 10% of it's people have been tested. 
    edited April 2020 caladanianjony0
  • Reply 3 of 39
    sjworldsjworld Posts: 94member
    People need to stop being ignorant and stay inside unless it is absolutely necessary to go out.
    jony0
  • Reply 4 of 39
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    sjworld said:
    People need to stop being ignorant and stay inside unless it is absolutely necessary to go out.

    While that is true, social distancing is merely a temporary stop gap only meant to slow the spread.   It cannot stop it.   The countries who have managed it effectively have included wide spread testing, contact tracing and isolation of the infectious.  

    We need to continue the social isolation while we move on to the next step.
    radarthekatjony0
  • Reply 5 of 39
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    gatorguy said:
    Yes, voluntary contact tracing is a big, big hole in the system.   So is the lack of widespread community testing to identify those whose contacts need to be traced.

    But, the solution is as obvious as it is simple:   Our federal government needs to step up to the plate and do the right thing.
    Which is mandatory contact tracing? 
    Of some note Iceland has tested more of its population for coronavirus than anywhere else, yet still just under 10% of it's people have been tested. 

    The right thing is to do what is necessary to protect the American people. 

    Besides, even for those who value the stock market above American lives, the economy will not come back while the virus runs out of control.   And it while social distancing can slow it down temporarily, at some point it must end.  And then, without appropriate levels of testing and contact tracing, it will come roaring right back again.

    Whether you look at it from the perspective of saving lives or saving the economy, we need testing and contact tracing to stop the spread of the infection.
    radarthekatjony0
  • Reply 6 of 39
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,213member
    gatorguy said:
    Yes, voluntary contact tracing is a big, big hole in the system.   So is the lack of widespread community testing to identify those whose contacts need to be traced.

    But, the solution is as obvious as it is simple:   Our federal government needs to step up to the plate and do the right thing.
    Which is mandatory contact tracing? 
    Of some note Iceland has tested more of its population for coronavirus than anywhere else, yet still just under 10% of it's people have been tested. 

    The right thing is to do what is necessary to protect the American people. 

    Besides, even for those who value the stock market above American lives, the economy will not come back while the virus runs out of control.   And it while social distancing can slow it down temporarily, at some point it must end.  And then, without appropriate levels of testing and contact tracing, it will come roaring right back again.

    Whether you look at it from the perspective of saving lives or saving the economy, we need testing and contact tracing to stop the spread of the infection.
    So then you're advising mandatory contact tracing as "the right thing to do"? Sounds like it. 
    By the way since you're so informed on the Democratic Party what counter-proposals have any of their leaders or presidential candidates put together on what our response should be? Specifics please on how they believe the disease dangers should be mitigated. Do they have any suggestions other than what we're doing?
    edited April 2020
  • Reply 7 of 39
    This collaboration is a step in the right direction, the problem is convincing people to install the app and opt in to allowing the federal government to track their movements.

    There is numerous benefits to opting in.  The fact that there are asymptomatic careers out there that could be infectious but never show symptoms (themselves) is a huge problem.  The technology would go a long way to tracking those folks down and ultimately save lives.

    The problem is trust.  The federal government has demonstrated repeatedly that it can’t be trusted.  Security agencies were given emergency powers in the wake of 9/11 but those powers were never allowed to expire as intended.  

    A variety of agencies have pushed their agenda of introducing backdoors in products and weakening encryption thus demonstrating a lack of awareness (or regard) for privacy rights.  They’ve also manipulated data and events to push their agenda of increased surveillance, even when it’s obvious there was other solutions available, or there was real need vs the risks. 

    The feds have also demonstrated an inability to secure data and software in their possession, so there’s no reason to think the surveillance data collected would be any different.  

    Any data collected isn’t going to stay with the CDC, but (inevitably) will get shared with other agencies... agencies with questionable intentions.

    This a left me in a quandary.  I want everyone to install the app because it would save lives, but I wouldn’t install it myself because of the reasons listed.  I’m feeling a bit hypocritical today.

    One benefit of this collaboration between Apple, Google and the CDC, is that it might head off an effort to make individual’s locations a “national security” concern.  The push will probably happen anyways, but (hopefully) won’t gain momentum because this collaboration is already out there.
    edited April 2020 muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 8 of 39
    That's great! But there is still a need to make some groups of people aware of the severity of the situation that the world is facing after COVID-19 pandemic so they help controlling the spread by quarantining themselves.
    GeorgeBMacwatto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 39
    Flashnews said:
    That's great! But there is still a need to make some groups of people aware of the severity of the situation that the world is facing after COVID-19 pandemic so they help controlling the spread by quarantining themselves.
    True, there are a lot of people in denial or they just think this an old person problem.  The other problem is how do you quarantine someone (or even locate them) when they’re displaying no symptoms...

    The app is really a ‘better than nothing’ solution, but it’s not going to stop the spread.  There’s no good solution that doesn’t violate personal freedoms.  

    We can’t even get all the States on the same page.  My worry is even after we get the situation under control in NY someone is going to start the infection all over again.  What are we going to do, stop international travel? Stop travel between States?

    Also, after we create a vaccine, you know the anti vaxxer crowd is going to go nuts and avoid getting it.  It’s very likely no matter what we do COVID-19 is going to be with us for a very long time.
    GeorgeBMacFlashnews
  • Reply 10 of 39
    steven n.steven n. Posts: 1,229member
    Yes, voluntary contact tracing is a big, big hole in the system.   So is the lack of widespread community testing to identify those whose contacts need to be traced.

    But, the solution is as obvious as it is simple:   Our federal government needs to step up to the plate and do the right thing.
    What? Kill everyone infected? Create giant camps like leper’s colonies? Enforce house arrest for 100% of people? It’s soooo simple and obvious. What is the the OBVIOUS answer? 
    cornchipwatto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 39
    steven n.steven n. Posts: 1,229member
    sjworld said:
    People need to stop being ignorant and stay inside unless it is absolutely necessary to go out.

    While that is true, social distancing is merely a temporary stop gap only meant to slow the spread.   It cannot stop it.   The countries who have managed it effectively have included wide spread testing, contact tracing and isolation of the infectious.  

    We need to continue the social isolation while we move on to the next step.
    In other words, Taiwan. A small isolated island with minimal interfaces.   
    cornchip
  • Reply 12 of 39
    Flashnews said:
    That's great! But there is still a need to make some groups of people aware of the severity of the situation that the world is facing after COVID-19 pandemic so they help controlling the spread by quarantining themselves.
    While we do need to take it seriously, the other side is that ‘some groups of people’ (i.e. most people) are taking it too seriously. If current projections are correct we are on the way to having no more deaths from coronavirus than we did from the flu in 2017. Are these groups who are taking the coronavirus so seriously and insisting no one go out unless their life depends on it having the same attitude about flu deaths?

    I’m not saying the symptoms aren’t worse than the flu and that we don’t need to take it seriously, but the ‘fear’ and panic is so far causing more problems for us than the virus is.
    cornchip
  • Reply 13 of 39
    cornchipcornchip Posts: 1,950member
    I can’t wait till all this horse $#!% blows over and we’re talking about it like we do the blizzard of ‘93.
  • Reply 14 of 39
    Over at TidBITS they have a pretty good look at how this would work. Pretty well thought. Except for the part about getting people to opt in. https://tidbits.com/2020/04/10/apple-and-google-partner-for-privacy-preserving-covid-19-contact-tracing-and-notification/
  • Reply 15 of 39
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    gatorguy said:
    gatorguy said:
    Yes, voluntary contact tracing is a big, big hole in the system.   So is the lack of widespread community testing to identify those whose contacts need to be traced.

    But, the solution is as obvious as it is simple:   Our federal government needs to step up to the plate and do the right thing.
    Which is mandatory contact tracing? 
    Of some note Iceland has tested more of its population for coronavirus than anywhere else, yet still just under 10% of it's people have been tested. 

    The right thing is to do what is necessary to protect the American people. 

    Besides, even for those who value the stock market above American lives, the economy will not come back while the virus runs out of control.   And it while social distancing can slow it down temporarily, at some point it must end.  And then, without appropriate levels of testing and contact tracing, it will come roaring right back again.

    Whether you look at it from the perspective of saving lives or saving the economy, we need testing and contact tracing to stop the spread of the infection.
    So then you're advising mandatory contact tracing as "the right thing to do"? Sounds like it. 
    By the way since you're so informed on the Democratic Party what counter-proposals have any of their leaders or presidential candidates put together on what our response should be? Specifics please on how they believe the disease dangers should be mitigated. Do they have any suggestions other than what we're doing?

    Nice try at defecting the blame from the Fiddler in Chief.
    StrangeDays
  • Reply 16 of 39
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    This collaboration is a step in the right direction, the problem is convincing people to install the app and opt in to allowing the federal government to track their movements.

    There is numerous benefits to opting in.  The fact that there are asymptomatic careers out there that could be infectious but never show symptoms (themselves) is a huge problem.  The technology would go a long way to tracking those folks down and ultimately save lives.

    The problem is trust.  The federal government has demonstrated repeatedly that it can’t be trusted.  Security agencies were given emergency powers in the wake of 9/11 but those powers were never allowed to expire as intended.  

    A variety of agencies have pushed their agenda of introducing backdoors in products and weakening encryption thus demonstrating a lack of awareness (or regard) for privacy rights.  They’ve also manipulated data and events to push their agenda of increased surveillance, even when it’s obvious there was other solutions available, or there was real need vs the risks. 

    The feds have also demonstrated an inability to secure data and software in their possession, so there’s no reason to think the surveillance data collected would be any different.  

    Any data collected isn’t going to stay with the CDC, but (inevitably) will get shared with other agencies... agencies with questionable intentions.

    This a left me in a quandary.  I want everyone to install the app because it would save lives, but I wouldn’t install it myself because of the reasons listed.  I’m feeling a bit hypocritical today.

    One benefit of this collaboration between Apple, Google and the CDC, is that it might head off an effort to make individual’s locations a “national security” concern.  The push will probably happen anyways, but (hopefully) won’t gain momentum because this collaboration is already out there.

    The answer is fairly simple:   Elect government officials with values, character and integrity.  We've not had a good track record with that over the past couple decades.  Instead we go with the one with the best zingers in debates or best populist agenda.
  • Reply 17 of 39
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    Flashnews said:
    That's great! But there is still a need to make some groups of people aware of the severity of the situation that the world is facing after COVID-19 pandemic so they help controlling the spread by quarantining themselves.
    True, there are a lot of people in denial or they just think this an old person problem.  The other problem is how do you quarantine someone (or even locate them) when they’re displaying no symptoms...

    The app is really a ‘better than nothing’ solution, but it’s not going to stop the spread.  There’s no good solution that doesn’t violate personal freedoms.  

    We can’t even get all the States on the same page.  My worry is even after we get the situation under control in NY someone is going to start the infection all over again.  What are we going to do, stop international travel? Stop travel between States?

    Also, after we create a vaccine, you know the anti vaxxer crowd is going to go nuts and avoid getting it.  It’s very likely no matter what we do COVID-19 is going to be with us for a very long time.
    That is all very true....   And, it is why we need effective community wide testing with follow-up contact tracing -- to find and isolate those who are infecting others.

    I think that Trump is banking on two things:   The virus will go away in the summer (for which there is very mixed science) and, eventually the American people will all be infected and become either dead or immune -- but while death is pretty effective at isolating a person, the science on permanent immunity is also a very mixed bag. 

    Trump isn't stupid.  He knows his assumptions are on very shaky ground.   But he is desperate to "reopen" the country because, if he doesn't he will not stand a chance in November -- not even master propagandists like Bannon, Vladimir and FauxNews will be able to pull this out for him.  But that is the same reason why he is doing his best to discourage effective testing:   not only will "the numbers" go up, but it will delay reopening the country till it is the right time to do so (well the right time for the country but the wrong time for Trump).

    edited April 2020
  • Reply 18 of 39
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    steven n. said:
    Yes, voluntary contact tracing is a big, big hole in the system.   So is the lack of widespread community testing to identify those whose contacts need to be traced.

    But, the solution is as obvious as it is simple:   Our federal government needs to step up to the plate and do the right thing.
    What? Kill everyone infected? Create giant camps like leper’s colonies? Enforce house arrest for 100% of people? It’s soooo simple and obvious. What is the the OBVIOUS answer? 

    The obvious answer is to follow the lead of those nations who have successfully managed this virus.   Our tactics and track record so far have mimicked the failures rather than the successes.
    muthuk_vanalingamStrangeDays
  • Reply 19 of 39
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    steven n. said:
    sjworld said:
    People need to stop being ignorant and stay inside unless it is absolutely necessary to go out.

    While that is true, social distancing is merely a temporary stop gap only meant to slow the spread.   It cannot stop it.   The countries who have managed it effectively have included wide spread testing, contact tracing and isolation of the infectious.  

    We need to continue the social isolation while we move on to the next step.
    In other words, Taiwan. A small isolated island with minimal interfaces.   

    I understand that Taiwan is ONE of the various success stories.   But far from the only one.   The success stories all have at least one thing in common:  they valued effective action above making excuses.
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 20 of 39
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    georgie01 said:
    Flashnews said:
    That's great! But there is still a need to make some groups of people aware of the severity of the situation that the world is facing after COVID-19 pandemic so they help controlling the spread by quarantining themselves.
    While we do need to take it seriously, the other side is that ‘some groups of people’ (i.e. most people) are taking it too seriously. If current projections are correct we are on the way to having no more deaths from coronavirus than we did from the flu in 2017. Are these groups who are taking the coronavirus so seriously and insisting no one go out unless their life depends on it having the same attitude about flu deaths?

    I’m not saying the symptoms aren’t worse than the flu and that we don’t need to take it seriously, but the ‘fear’ and panic is so far causing more problems for us than the virus is.

    Trump tried those excuses early on and the big fat virus sat on him till he squealed.  Now not even the Excuser in Chief sings that nonsense.  Instead he's hoping that it magically or miraculously just goes away.   Tomorrow is Easter Sunday -- maybe?
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