Apple Car arriving in 2025 at the earliest, says Ming-Chi Kuo

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware edited December 2020
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has poured water on rumors that the Apple Car could arrive at any point before 2025, warning that many elements are still being worked on.




A December supply chain report claimed a number of car part factories in Taiwan were rushing shipments to Apple for a potential car launch in September 2021. The dubious report's claim seemed unlikely for a number of reasons, ranging from a lack of hard-defined specifications of the vehicle to the seemingly short lead time for the production of a substantial product.

In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF Securities warns against believing the hype surrounding the report, which has helped push up the value of "concept stocks" for companies supposedly linked to Apple's vehicular efforts. The buying of the shares in the related companies is a "knee-jerk reaction that could be short-lived," with Kuo suggesting there are at least three reasons why investors shouldn't do so right now.

It is offered that the uncertainty of the "launch schedule," the lack of a supplier or specification for the vehicle, and the uncertainty of "Apple's competitiveness in the EV/self-driving car market" are major problems to be considered.

While in a previous report TF Securities forecast an Apple Car launch between 2023 and 2025, the company's latest survey indicates the "current development schedule of Apple Car is not clear." If it were to start in 2020 and if "everything goes well," the potential launch for a self-driving car could be between 2025 and 2027, by the firm's reckoning.

"Due to changes in the EV/self-driving market and Apple's high quality standards, we would not be surprised if Apple Car's launch schedule is postponed to 2028 or later," Kuo writes.

Specifications and suppliers in reports and rumors are "only speculations by the market and do not involve actual Apple Car suppliers," the note adds. The "still evolving" nature of the technical specifications also makes it "too early to talk about the final specs" this early before a projected launch.

As for the competitiveness in the market, TF Securities feels "the key success factor for Apple Car is not hardware, but big data/AI," an area that Apple has "not demonstrated significant" competitive advantages for in its existing products.

Despite the 2021 claims, other analysts have offered their own observations on the timing, largely anchored around another report suggesting Apple was going to use "next-level" monocell battery designs in a car due in 2024.

Goldman Sachs wrote about the 2024 timing, proposing an Apple Car would make sense as a services-supporting hardware platform, but the high costs associated with releasing a car could mean it will be of limited impact for investors. Typically low margins compared to Apple's other businesses were also cited as a possible reason for Apple to explore alternative avenues, such as by providing a seamless user experience but relying on another manufacturer to create the actual vehicle.

Another report from Morgan Stanley also believes Apple has an interest in "enhancing the driving experience with vertical integration of hardware, software, and services." The Apple Car is seen as a long-term project with Apple's decision to bring five core technologies in-house covering processor design, batteries, cameras, sensors, and displays potentially aiding its car development efforts.

Formerly known as "Project Titan," Apple's car technology work has ranged from self-driving vehicle systems to car design. Largely thought to be an electric car, Apple's efforts have resulted in the issuing of many different patents relating to car design and other technologies, and has involved the hiring of experts and acquisition of startups in the field to accelerate its research.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 44
    DAalsethDAalseth Posts: 1,718member
    LOL 2021, 2024, 2025, 2027, never...
    This far out everyone's crystal ball fogs up.
    edited December 2020 SpamSandwichlarryjwScot1dk49steven n.anantksundaramwatto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 44
    I find it very hard to believe how Apple could be spending $20 billion in R&D and NOT be  preparing to enter and win in a new, very large market.  The current product lineup and adjacent categories cannot possibly require that amount of resources

    Either Apple is wasting R&D spend a la IBM,  or it has very ambitious plans.  It would be nice not to have to wait another 8 years to see what "new" new thing comes next 
    edited December 2020 Scot1bshankd_2watto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 44
    Has anyone collected all his predictions and showed what they look like on a timeline…?
    MplsPwatto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 44
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 9,455member
    Is this the same Ming-Chi Kuo who has been predicting an Apple branded HDTV forever?
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 44
    Same Same Ming
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 6 of 44
    MplsPMplsP Posts: 3,256member
    svanstrom said:
    Has anyone collected all his predictions and showed what they look like on a timeline…?
    Yeah - my thought, too.

    Like everything - I'll believe it when I see it. Until then, it's a nice show.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 44
    Apple had their shot to buy Tesla back in 2016, according to Elon Musk. He was offering the company for pennies on the dollar compared to Tesla's current valuation. Apple chose not to, yet have been poaching Tesla people ever since. Apple must have been holding quite a hand for Tim Cook to refuse to even meet with Musk. It seems unlikely to me that Apple would be that far out from introducing SOMETHING that came from Project Titan.
    Scot1elijahgGeorgeBMacwatto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 44
    DAalsethDAalseth Posts: 1,718member
    Apple had their shot to buy Tesla back in 2016, according to Elon Musk. He was offering the company for pennies on the dollar compared to Tesla's current valuation. Apple chose not to, yet have been poaching Tesla people ever since. Apple must have been holding quite a hand for Tim Cook to refuse to even meet with Musk. It seems unlikely to me that Apple would be that far out from introducing SOMETHING that came from Project Titan.
    Well at the time Tesla was losing money as fast as it could. Smart money was that they would have folded by 2020 not grown. If the call happened at all Musk was offering it at market price, not a bargain.
    watto_cobraqwerty52
  • Reply 9 of 44
    hentaiboyhentaiboy Posts: 1,244member
    Any vehicle being released in the next 1-2 years would have been spotted by now. Car spies are the best in the business. 
    SpamSandwichDAalsethMplsPanantksundaramd_2cornchip
  • Reply 10 of 44
    I find his prognostications less and less credible.
    DAalsethwatto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 44
    lkrupp said:
    Is this the same Ming-Chi Kuo who has been predicting an Apple branded HDTV forever?
    That was Gene Munster.
    Xedelijahggeorge kaplanwatto_cobrachasmfastasleepcornchip
  • Reply 12 of 44
    flydogflydog Posts: 1,005member
    red oak said:
    I find it very hard to believe how Apple could be spending $20 billion in R&D and NOT be  preparing to enter and win in a new, very large market.  The current product lineup and adjacent categories cannot possibly require that amount of resources

    Either Apple is wasting R&D spend a la IBM,  or it has very ambitious plans.  It would be nice not to have to wait another 8 years to see what "new" new thing comes next 
    I don’t see the logical connection between the dollars spent in R&D and the conclusion that because it’s a certain amount that it MUST be for a car. Or that if a certain amount is spent then it’s wasted unless spent on car development. 

    Amazon spent over $22 billion on R&D last year. Is Amazon wasting money or developing a car?
    MplsPXedwatto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 44
    XedXed Posts: 1,028member
    flydog said:
    red oak said:
    I find it very hard to believe how Apple could be spending $20 billion in R&D and NOT be  preparing to enter and win in a new, very large market.  The current product lineup and adjacent categories cannot possibly require that amount of resources

    Either Apple is wasting R&D spend a la IBM,  or it has very ambitious plans.  It would be nice not to have to wait another 8 years to see what "new" new thing comes next 
    I don’t see the logical connection between the dollars spent in R&D and the conclusion that because it’s a certain amount that it MUST be for a car. Or that if a certain amount is spent then it’s wasted unless spent on car development. 

    Amazon spent over $22 billion on R&D last year. Is Amazon wasting money or developing a car?
    Well Amazon has a lot of products to copy. LOL


    d_2svanstromwatto_cobraqwerty52cornchip
  • Reply 14 of 44
    flydog said:
    red oak said:
    I find it very hard to believe how Apple could be spending $20 billion in R&D and NOT be  preparing to enter and win in a new, very large market.  The current product lineup and adjacent categories cannot possibly require that amount of resources

    Either Apple is wasting R&D spend a la IBM,  or it has very ambitious plans.  It would be nice not to have to wait another 8 years to see what "new" new thing comes next 
    I don’t see the logical connection between the dollars spent in R&D and the conclusion that because it’s a certain amount that it MUST be for a car. Or that if a certain amount is spent then it’s wasted unless spent on car development. 

    Amazon spent over $22 billion on R&D last year. Is Amazon wasting money or developing a car?

    —————-

    That Amazon number is wrong.  Way over inflated 

    d_2watto_cobracornchip
  • Reply 15 of 44
    lkrupp said:
    Is this the same Ming-Chi Kuo who has been predicting an Apple branded HDTV forever?
    That was Gene Munster.

    That is correct, it was Gene Munster. Ming-Chi Kuo has been astonishingly correct more often than not. 

    watto_cobrachasm
  • Reply 16 of 44
    XedXed Posts: 1,028member
    lkrupp said:
    Is this the same Ming-Chi Kuo who has been predicting an Apple branded HDTV forever?
    That was Gene Munster.
    That is correct, it was Gene Munster. Ming-Chi Kuo has been astonishingly correct more often than not. 
    From what I've seen, Kuo accuracy seems to be from making "predictions" right before an impending release, and even then still be fairly vague about details.
    svanstromwatto_cobra
  • Reply 17 of 44
    DAalseth said:
    LOL 2021, 2024, 2025, 2027, never...
    This far out everyone's crystal ball fogs up.
    Agreed. Methinks this is someone’s pipe dream. 
    SpamSandwichwatto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 44
    If Apple is going to dive in to the Auto Industry, I still think it would be smart to acquire Lucid Motors, in addition to their gorgeous designs, they already have really competitive battery tech compared to Tesla and looking at AR as well

    and I think a purchase like that benefits beyond just the car, as it would bolster their IP on battery tech that can be spread across all fields they cover
    d_2watto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 44
    As if Apple couldn’t change their mind by 2025.
    There’s a lot of moving parts (pun intended).
    edited December 2020 watto_cobra
  • Reply 20 of 44
    XedXed Posts: 1,028member
    If Apple is going to dive in to the Auto Industry, I still think it would be smart to acquire Lucid Motors, in addition to their gorgeous designs, they already have really competitive battery tech compared to Tesla and looking at AR as well

    and I think a purchase like that benefits beyond just the car, as it would bolster their IP on battery tech that can be spread across all fields they cover
    Apple does like to buy inexpensive and undervalued companies, but lot remains to seen with Lucid Air. I wonder if they even need their IP for anything. 
    watto_cobra
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