Placebo, I agree that demand will be tremendous. That's not a surprise for anyone. I also know that Apple will have trouble keeping up. They had trouble keeping up on delivery with the 12 and 17 and the new PM's. This has become a standard for Apple. They have sort of become like the Airline Industry. They'll tell you one time and reality will be rather different. Mac users would go into shock if Apple actually could deliver a massive product distro on time. So a few weeks is to be expected, but I still maintain that the PM and PB, even the X-Serve (which has been eerily untalked about) will all receive the 970 at the same time. I think IBM can provide them, and then it's just up to manufacturing the computers as fast as possible...but it is possible.
What if perhaps the 970 was only as fast as the fastest x86 or x86 64 on the market? While it's important to get Apple's tower lineup up to speed, it'd be willing to say that it's MORE important to wait 'till something like the 980 (Power5) comes out in December and use THAT chip instead.
It would look rather sad if we were required to wait this f-ing long for a chip that was supposed to blow away the PC competition and it turned out to be only as fast, slightly faster or (God forbid) slightly slower than the PC competition.
Could this be why Steve said that this would be "the year of the laptop"?
Steve knows that the x86 competition can't create a high-end x86 or x86 64 chip cool enough to compete in the laptop market... not even by a long shot. They're simply too f-ing HOT!
Steve will probably upgrade the desktop's with the 970... if only just to bring them up to speed, but in the same way that 2003 is the year of the laptop due to its significant speed advantages, "the year of the desktop," will almost certenly be declared in 2004 because of the 980.
(Remember IBM said the Power 5 is 4x (400%) faster than the Power 4... the 980 is 4x (400%) faster than the 970)
COS, I think what you said about the 970 was rather interesting. I think your comments could be true in regard to the initial release of the 970, however from the stats everyone has been throwing around, I'd be willing to say that Intel won't have a match for the 970 upon release. If it did come close, you could bet that a dual processor configuration used in the Power Mac would certainly hand a Pentium 4 its ass. In the laptop world, as you already stated, the Intel world has no offering that can keep up with the 970 without melting the laptop in the process. As for the 980, I think it's nice to see numbers, but I think it's a little too far off in the distance to really put a lot of thought into. You know, as the rest of us do, that technology has a way of changing all the rules of computers in a matter of a few months. Who knows, after the initial release of the 970, and the overwhelming wave of lust toward the Macs with the 970 within, Apple may choose to do another first for computers people can actually afford and release the first quad processor Power Mac at the high end just to thumb its nose at Intel and Microsoft. But for the Powerbook, I see the 970 sweeping the series shy of the 12". I think we'll have to wait for the revision of the 970 to the finer process so we can get one that doesn't need a lot of cooling. Afterall, we know there's not much elbow room in the 12 PB. But for the 15.4, and the 17, the 970 seems a sure bet. And who knows, Apple may one-up us and drop in the new ATI GPU. So anything is possible, but the 980 as sweet as it sounds, is a long way off yet and I think it's appropriate to lust after more immediate objects, thus the 970. 8)
fred_lj, what would you do with all that extra processing power? Sure would be nice to have a 970 PB right now. It would be nice to surf the web talking with all you fine individuals, be encoding a movie in the background, and be burning a CD for the road at the same time without a single hint that things were slowing down. :-) So what do you all think? How much power (if we could ignore heat for a minute) would you need in a laptop before you would think you didn't need to upgrade anymore? Just curious. So we're thinking of the ultimate Power Book.
From reading the arsetechnica article at <http://www.arstechnica.com/cpu/02q2...0/ppc970-1.html> it seems clear that, although the 970 does use more power than the G4, it does not use so much more as to prevent the PowerBook from using the new chip. Considering the voltage of the P4m is even higher than the 970, there should be no reason why a 970 powerbook could not exist with the initial release of the 970.
If the next PowerBook does not have the 970 under the hood it will be because of supply problems rather than heat problems. Since we are dealing with IBM and not motorola, I think it is quite likely we will see a 970 PowerBook sooner rather than later.
Most of the people who are being pessimistic in regard to the 970 Powerbook are thinking in the old moto mind set. They have not yet realized that IBM is a lot more capable in regard to production quantity. Yes, it is entirely possible that we will not see the 970 Powerbook for awhile, but I believe it would not be for the reasons people have been throwing around.
However, since the PowerBook 15" needs an update, and it seems the PPC970 is about ready to go, why not go ahead and start the new chip out in the laptop at the same time as the desktop? I'm sure Steve would love to be able to produce a 970 PowerBook at WWDC as the "one more thing"!!!!! Oh, I sure hope...
Centrino-based PC laptops get *extreme* battery life (IBM's T40 gets something like 7-8 hours ) and better performance than the P4 at lower frequency (1.6 Ghz Centrino ~= 2.4 Ghz P4 if i remember correctly).
so it kinda sucks that the 970 will run hotter than than the G4.. my G3-equipped iBook is already running way too hot as far as I am concerned..
Algol, happy to see someone else believes that IBM will be able to come through with the 970 in quantities that allow for simultaneous release of the 970 across multiple platforms. I'm waiting to get a PB with a 970 in it.
cygsid, I have done some reading in regard to the Centrino chip by Intel. While it does have some interesting features, it isn't PPC so isn't really a factor aside from comparison. One thing you said that did catch my eye was your claim that your G3 got too hot for you. Can you do us a favor and put a thermometer on it and let us know the temp? Just figured we ought to get some numbers that way we can see if that's what other people are experiencing. Anyone out there with a 1 Gig Powerbook want to put a thermometer on theirs? It would be interesting to hear what people say. I have a 600 MHz iBook and I have to say that the only part of it that actually gets warm isn't from the processor at all. It's from the hard drive. The only heat I can feel comes from under the left hand rest area, and pictures of an iBook opened up show that the hard drive is the culprit and where the pic shows the G3, it's not even warm. So I'm curious about the heat issue.
Centrino-based PC laptops get *extreme* battery life (IBM's T40 gets something like 7-8 hours ) and better performance than the P4 at lower frequency (1.6 Ghz Centrino ~= 2.4 Ghz P4 if i remember correctly)
If I remember correctly, that 7-8 hour battery life is with two batteries. You have to remove the CD/CDRW and add a second battery in the bay. With only the standard battery it is half that.
I thought under the left handrest area on the iBook was where the battery chamber is? HDDs don't spit out that much heat at all -- at least not my TiBook's (which is directly under the trackpad/middle of the front of the computer). The G4 and the power management module both definitely get HOT though.
fred_lj, the battery on my 600 MHz iBook is under the right palm rest, not the left. The right palm rest is cold, and doesn't feel warm at all. The left side is rather warm though. I saw a site a while back that showed the guts of an iBook for people who wanted to switch out their hard drives, and the hard drive in the picture was right under the left palm rest, and if you look through the slits in the side of the iBook on the left you can see the barcode of the hard drive. The G3 looked to be roughly under the 6 and 7 keys on the keyboard, and that area is cool. So I'm not sure why my hard drive gets so warm. It works perfectly fine and doesn't make any noise so I'm not sure what it is. Go figure.\
Derrick 61, I thought what you said about the 970 was funny. You are right. Unfortunately we say the same thing about Moto G4's an G3's. Truth is at least the flow of 970's will be a good thing, even if we have to wait months for them knowing that other Mac users out there are getting theirs. It'll take time for us to all get a Mac with a 970 inside. Hopefully it'll be a sweet looking 15.4 with a killer GPU.
I agree that the 970 will probably come this year. I don't think Steve could just start January with the "Year of the Laptops" statement and not do more than introduce the 12 and 17 that day (and mild updates after that).
the 12 and the 17 are not small things. Apple is the only company to put
gigabit eithernet
firewire 800
built in bluetooth
or a 17 inch screen
in a laptop. also we have the best energy conservation. Year of the laptop means that they will sell more laptops than desktops and i believe they will. where PC desktops can compete with mac desktops. Powerbooks just destroy PC Laptops. nobody comes close.
I doubt that we will see a 970 in a powerbook before december. it will be the logical upgrade for the 2nd generation of the AI pb line.
I think increased heat dissipation for a 970 might be the whole reason for the 17" design, as well for the delay in the 15" redesign.
THE REAL REASON THAT APPLE DID NOT MAKE THE TI AN AI WHEN THEY RELEASED THE 12 AND THE 17
no. they upgraded the ti 15inch 1 month before releasing the 17. I know, I bought one . They added a superdrive and made it a gig machine and i thought well thats it there is the upgrade so i bought on. Now had they upgraded the 15 so soon after upgrading it to a gig machine with a superdrive. Me and everyone else who bought one in the last month would have been able to trade it in for the newer one. But, the sneaky bastards rleased two different machines instead
JC, I still maintain that the 15 will see the 970 when the PM does. Apple is well aware that many people these days use a Power Book as their desktop (it's just portable). Apple needs the 970 in both the PB and PM at the same time. They know full well that the PM users will maintain their PM devotion and get the 970 machine, they also know that serious field users of the PB are eagerly waiting in the wings to swoop down and snatch up the 970 PB. The 17 and 12 will see the 970 next cycle, not the 15. Everyone uses the excuse that the 15 will never have the 970 before the 17. First rule in business, never ever say "never". When jumping from the G4 to the 970 Apple is well aware that they will piss people off in the transition - namely those that just purchased what they had thought to be the high end model. If Apple really cared about what those people thought they wouldn't maintain such tight secrecy on the platform change. The truth is, if you are upset with your buying decision get rid of your current laptop and buy a new one. Apple will do what they want to do regardless of how people feel about their so-called update cycles, including dropping the 970 into the PB and the PM at the same time. Steve has said long ago that this would be the year of the laptop so he knows full well that sales of laptops will be their primary seller this year. Sure PM's cost more, but you sell more PB's than PM's and you quickly see that the numbers do equal out.
I know it sucks to have just gotten a PB only to hear that it'll be bested by a killer new CPU. I did the same thing with this iBook. That was before I learned about these forums. Now I know to listen and to hear what's going on so I won't make that mistake again, which is why I'm waiting to buy the new 15.4. I understand your frustration with Apple believe me, but getting mad at other posters for telling you what you don't want to hear isn't the right way to be either. Learn from your mistake and get a PB 970 when they are released in a few months.
People have got big hopes for the 970. Apple will use it, but it's going to take some time before they're ready to go in half of the line-up.
Right now, Appe is under intense pressure to debut a next gen CPU that at least restores parity with the X86 ranks. It may or may not do that, AMD's recent 64 and dual 64 bit mobo's have returned fully DOUBLE the performance of Xeon based machines. Pretty darned fast. But anyway, back to the pressures facing Apple. They need to get the 970 class machines out. The question remains whether IBM can supply them in enough quantity for more than one line. I think the obvious answer is that initially they WILL NOT be able to meet that kind of demand.
The track record speaks for itself. According to IBM the G3 was supposed to have hit 2Ghz a long time ago, they're nowhere near that. Also, there's so much pressure on Apple, that they will need to pre-announce. Not PRE-anounce, but sorta announce -- that they're taking orders and expect the first units to ship anywhere from 1-3 months later. Remember the iMac? Announced at the beginning of January, and you couldn't count on getting one untill March/April! Same thing with the PB12 and PB17. I had to wait almost two months for my book and the order was in days after the keynote! PB17 buyers had to wait even longer. Uh-un, no way in heaven that Apple is going to have enough volume to launch 3 PM models, Xserves, and 2 Laptop models based on the 970. Nothing from either IBm or Apple says that they'll be able to do it.
PM's only, for now. MAYBE, perhaps likely? the 17", being the most expensive machine, will get a PPC970 aswell. Everything else will have to wait. Xserves will come shortly after, as they're on an entirely different program, and their relatively low volume means they can be changed more easily.
The 15.4 Al PPC970 will come a couple of months after the PM/17. The titanium case may soldier on as is, or Apple may add a new Al version with a new .13u G4. (the chip ranges from 1-1.8Ghz and is very efficient) Moto may not have anything goo for the long range, but teh have product that can plug laptop and consumer holes for the next 12-18 months.
That just the way it is. We haven't seen anything from IBM that suggests they're cranking out huge quantities of these things, and to meet the timelines being used here, they would already have to be. Half the Apple line-up would require about 500K parts per quater. I guarantee you they aren't ready for that kind of quantity, we would have heard other noises by now. Not just the mac web, investor/shareholder/market noises. PPC970 based Mac launches may be more of "Paper" launches than real, "stroll into our stores and take one home today!" launches. More than likely, you can "order" them the day of the keynote, but don't expect quantity to ship untill 3 months after -- ALL models -- the top end (most expensive) may ship within the month of the announcement.
PS, you may never say never, but you always say "money." The 17 is the high-end product, it costs more, it gets the fastest parts first, period. The 15" now faces very stiff competition from wintel notebooks (Centrino) which return better batter life, similar performance and weight and undercut it by about 600-700 USD. The 15, with a 970 would have to cost more than the 17 if the 17 only had a G4. That won't happen. The highest priced product will always be the top performer, people woun't buy it otherwise, and why exactly would Apple give away a few months of high margin sales to start the upgrade cycle at the wrong end of the chain???
Please go read more on the centrino based systems. You obviously don't understand that they are the best chips ever made for laptops. I am not saying the 970's won't compete, but you need to understand that Intel has made a very good laptop chip. You also don't know what the 970 will debut at, as far as Ghz go. If it comes out at 1.2, then it would have to perform better than a 2.4 Ghz P4. And by the time the 970's get into the PB(which I hope is this summer or fall), then the centrino platforms could be running at 2 Ghz(they are at 1.6 Ghz now) or maybe more. So don't say that intel laptops will get destroyed, because they won't. I personally would much rather have a PB, due to the fact that they look a TON better and are more functional in my eyes. Here is a site where you can read about a centrino comparison.
yah, nowhere did I disagree with you. Centrino's have a big battery life advantage over P4-M and PPC. They do not however have a performance advantage over P4-M, which itself does not have a significant performance advantage over the PPC in mobile applications. They say it's about equal to a P4-M 2.4, tests show that it isn't faster, tests also show that mobile X86 performance is quite a ways from desktop X86 performance.
The centrino advantage on battery life seems to come from its ability to "throttle" with far greater efficiency than any other chip. It will drop right down to 200Mhz when unloaded, and seamlesly step the Mhz to supply just enough power and no more. Most Centrinos will seldom run over 8-900Mhz if the current tasks don't demand it. I believe it can also control the FSB speed.
While this doesn't appear to be a feature of any proposed PPC, the .13u G4's from Moto are very frugal, and it should be possible for Apple to build this kind of throttling into the Mobo itself, supported by system software to achieve similar effects.
Comments
It would look rather sad if we were required to wait this f-ing long for a chip that was supposed to blow away the PC competition and it turned out to be only as fast, slightly faster or (God forbid) slightly slower than the PC competition.
Could this be why Steve said that this would be "the year of the laptop"?
Steve knows that the x86 competition can't create a high-end x86 or x86 64 chip cool enough to compete in the laptop market... not even by a long shot. They're simply too f-ing HOT!
Steve will probably upgrade the desktop's with the 970... if only just to bring them up to speed, but in the same way that 2003 is the year of the laptop due to its significant speed advantages, "the year of the desktop," will almost certenly be declared in 2004 because of the 980.
(Remember IBM said the Power 5 is 4x (400%) faster than the Power 4... the 980 is 4x (400%) faster than the 970)
But let's see the 970 first, eh?
If the next PowerBook does not have the 970 under the hood it will be because of supply problems rather than heat problems. Since we are dealing with IBM and not motorola, I think it is quite likely we will see a 970 PowerBook sooner rather than later.
Most of the people who are being pessimistic in regard to the 970 Powerbook are thinking in the old moto mind set. They have not yet realized that IBM is a lot more capable in regard to production quantity. Yes, it is entirely possible that we will not see the 970 Powerbook for awhile, but I believe it would not be for the reasons people have been throwing around.
However, since the PowerBook 15" needs an update, and it seems the PPC970 is about ready to go, why not go ahead and start the new chip out in the laptop at the same time as the desktop? I'm sure Steve would love to be able to produce a 970 PowerBook at WWDC as the "one more thing"!!!!! Oh, I sure hope...
Centrino-based PC laptops get *extreme* battery life (IBM's T40 gets something like 7-8 hours
so it kinda sucks that the 970 will run hotter than than the G4.. my G3-equipped iBook is already running way too hot as far as I am concerned..
cygsid, I have done some reading in regard to the Centrino chip by Intel. While it does have some interesting features, it isn't PPC so isn't really a factor aside from comparison. One thing you said that did catch my eye was your claim that your G3 got too hot for you. Can you do us a favor and put a thermometer on it and let us know the temp? Just figured we ought to get some numbers that way we can see if that's what other people are experiencing. Anyone out there with a 1 Gig Powerbook want to put a thermometer on theirs? It would be interesting to hear what people say. I have a 600 MHz iBook and I have to say that the only part of it that actually gets warm isn't from the processor at all. It's from the hard drive. The only heat I can feel comes from under the left hand rest area, and pictures of an iBook opened up show that the hard drive is the culprit and where the pic shows the G3, it's not even warm. So I'm curious about the heat issue.
Originally posted by cygsid
err.. anybody heard of Intel's Centrino yet..?
Centrino-based PC laptops get *extreme* battery life (IBM's T40 gets something like 7-8 hours
If I remember correctly, that 7-8 hour battery life is with two batteries. You have to remove the CD/CDRW and add a second battery in the bay. With only the standard battery it is half that.
Originally posted by Placebo
[snip]...and of course, plenty of 970 to go around.[snip]
It doesn't matter how many 970s Apple gets, it won't be enough!
Q: How many 970 processors will Apple need to meet the demand?
A: More!
Originally posted by macmike
I agree that the 970 will probably come this year. I don't think Steve could just start January with the "Year of the Laptops" statement and not do more than introduce the 12 and 17 that day (and mild updates after that).
the 12 and the 17 are not small things. Apple is the only company to put
gigabit eithernet
firewire 800
built in bluetooth
or a 17 inch screen
in a laptop. also we have the best energy conservation. Year of the laptop means that they will sell more laptops than desktops and i believe they will. where PC desktops can compete with mac desktops. Powerbooks just destroy PC Laptops. nobody comes close.
I doubt that we will see a 970 in a powerbook before december. it will be the logical upgrade for the 2nd generation of the AI pb line.
Originally posted by FormerLurker
I think increased heat dissipation for a 970 might be the whole reason for the 17" design, as well for the delay in the 15" redesign.
THE REAL REASON THAT APPLE DID NOT MAKE THE TI AN AI WHEN THEY RELEASED THE 12 AND THE 17
no. they upgraded the ti 15inch 1 month before releasing the 17. I know, I bought one . They added a superdrive and made it a gig machine and i thought well thats it there is the upgrade so i bought on. Now had they upgraded the 15 so soon after upgrading it to a gig machine with a superdrive. Me and everyone else who bought one in the last month would have been able to trade it in for the newer one. But, the sneaky bastards rleased two different machines instead
I know it sucks to have just gotten a PB only to hear that it'll be bested by a killer new CPU. I did the same thing with this iBook. That was before I learned about these forums. Now I know to listen and to hear what's going on so I won't make that mistake again, which is why I'm waiting to buy the new 15.4. I understand your frustration with Apple believe me, but getting mad at other posters for telling you what you don't want to hear isn't the right way to be either. Learn from your mistake and get a PB 970 when they are released in a few months.
Right now, Appe is under intense pressure to debut a next gen CPU that at least restores parity with the X86 ranks. It may or may not do that, AMD's recent 64 and dual 64 bit mobo's have returned fully DOUBLE the performance of Xeon based machines. Pretty darned fast. But anyway, back to the pressures facing Apple. They need to get the 970 class machines out. The question remains whether IBM can supply them in enough quantity for more than one line. I think the obvious answer is that initially they WILL NOT be able to meet that kind of demand.
The track record speaks for itself. According to IBM the G3 was supposed to have hit 2Ghz a long time ago, they're nowhere near that. Also, there's so much pressure on Apple, that they will need to pre-announce. Not PRE-anounce, but sorta announce -- that they're taking orders and expect the first units to ship anywhere from 1-3 months later. Remember the iMac? Announced at the beginning of January, and you couldn't count on getting one untill March/April! Same thing with the PB12 and PB17. I had to wait almost two months for my book and the order was in days after the keynote! PB17 buyers had to wait even longer. Uh-un, no way in heaven that Apple is going to have enough volume to launch 3 PM models, Xserves, and 2 Laptop models based on the 970. Nothing from either IBm or Apple says that they'll be able to do it.
PM's only, for now. MAYBE, perhaps likely? the 17", being the most expensive machine, will get a PPC970 aswell. Everything else will have to wait. Xserves will come shortly after, as they're on an entirely different program, and their relatively low volume means they can be changed more easily.
The 15.4 Al PPC970 will come a couple of months after the PM/17. The titanium case may soldier on as is, or Apple may add a new Al version with a new .13u G4. (the chip ranges from 1-1.8Ghz and is very efficient) Moto may not have anything goo for the long range, but teh have product that can plug laptop and consumer holes for the next 12-18 months.
That just the way it is. We haven't seen anything from IBM that suggests they're cranking out huge quantities of these things, and to meet the timelines being used here, they would already have to be. Half the Apple line-up would require about 500K parts per quater. I guarantee you they aren't ready for that kind of quantity, we would have heard other noises by now. Not just the mac web, investor/shareholder/market noises. PPC970 based Mac launches may be more of "Paper" launches than real, "stroll into our stores and take one home today!" launches. More than likely, you can "order" them the day of the keynote, but don't expect quantity to ship untill 3 months after -- ALL models -- the top end (most expensive) may ship within the month of the announcement.
PS, you may never say never, but you always say "money." The 17 is the high-end product, it costs more, it gets the fastest parts first, period. The 15" now faces very stiff competition from wintel notebooks (Centrino) which return better batter life, similar performance and weight and undercut it by about 600-700 USD. The 15, with a 970 would have to cost more than the 17 if the 17 only had a G4. That won't happen. The highest priced product will always be the top performer, people woun't buy it otherwise, and why exactly would Apple give away a few months of high margin sales to start the upgrade cycle at the wrong end of the chain???
http://www.anandtech.com/mobile/showdoc.html?i=1801
Enjoy the read.
Tony
The centrino advantage on battery life seems to come from its ability to "throttle" with far greater efficiency than any other chip. It will drop right down to 200Mhz when unloaded, and seamlesly step the Mhz to supply just enough power and no more. Most Centrinos will seldom run over 8-900Mhz if the current tasks don't demand it. I believe it can also control the FSB speed.
While this doesn't appear to be a feature of any proposed PPC, the .13u G4's from Moto are very frugal, and it should be possible for Apple to build this kind of throttling into the Mobo itself, supported by system software to achieve similar effects.