And it was not known by kormac either - he guesses by hunting the web for new technologies, nothing more.
Unlike 99% of the board, right?
Seriously, so what? He said a good long while ago that he was just speculating at this point, and people still tried to jump on him for passing speculation off as inside information.
Lay off the guy, and look at his posts. If you don't like them, ignore them. I would like to see just one kormac thread discuss Future Hardware, rather than turn into yet another pissing match. Is that too much to ask?
Seriously, so what? He said a good long while ago that he was just speculating at this point, and people still tried to jump on him for passing speculation off as inside information.
Lay off the guy, and look at his posts. If you don't like them, ignore them. I would like to see just one kormac thread discuss Future Hardware, rather than turn into yet another pissing match. Is that too much to ask?
Nope, speculation is welcome along with any other FH thought patterns (except maybe the Taaaaablet...)
Lay off the guy, and look at his posts. If you don't like them, ignore them. I would like to see just one kormac thread discuss Future Hardware, rather than turn into yet another pissing match. Is that too much to ask?
Whatever you think of his posts, Kormac is right in that things have been quiet on this forum lately. Shipping G5's and PB's along iwth announced 10.3 is probably doing that. We all even know when iTMS for windows is coming. What's to do?
kormac is one of my favorite posters on ai. i don't understand the hostility to him around here. his posts are always thought provoking to me, and even if they are not true inside info, they spell out a future for apple that i hope to see. please keep posting kormac, many of us enjoy your ideas.
Kormac, I enjoy reading your speculations (and it may be based on inside information too, don't forget). I'm well aware of the need to filter info. Alot of these posters just want the "full scoop", and don't realize that companies can easily change directions (and be ruthless as well to those that are caught sharing secrets). Take whatever precautions are necessary, but hint when you feel you can.
That's not the Grid computing of which I speak. Take a look at this article on the definition of Grid Computing.
Interesting article, thanks for linking it.
To briefly summarize, the individual nodes (i.e. complete computers/servers) in clustering are discrete. Specifically, each server runs an OS with complete control over the computer's resources, with an application running that accepts blocks of work to be done (SETI @ Home is an example of this arrangement).
Grid computing appears to be much more transparent (to a user) allocation of resources in a company. For example, if someone is looking to render an image/video, the computer he or she is using would go out and recruit processing cycles, file storage etc. from all computers attached to the network in order to complete the task.
Grid computing in a sense would be simpler to implement, in that you could theoretically drop additional boxes into a network, which would immediately benefit the entire network. Currently you need to spend a relatively large amount of time configuring the box (unless you are cloning drives), set-up the clustering app, tell the clustering controller app to send jobs to the new box, etc.
I always enjoy Kormac's posts and it seems to me he has a position somewhere on the video side of things, Panasonic maybe?
The 30" LCD would be an absolute winner for a number of reasons. Getting into HD is eminently do-able now, even for a small shop like me; you rent the camera, you rent the VTR, do an offline edit in DV or whatever and then rent the VTR again to do your online (HD cards are down to $2K now) what you need for the whole process is a bloody HD monitor which cost $30-40K. A $3-4K 30"LCD with some sort of HD input would fly off the shelves and give Sony a good kicking which Apple always seem to enjoy. I don't think it is supposed to be a consumer TV convergence type product.
However, that may be a possibility for a new iMac. Steve's comments should always be taken in context. They are never 'off-the-cuff' and tend to be exercises in expectation management at a particular point in time. The great thing about Jobs vers. 2.0 is that he is willing to accept the realities of the public's desires within the context of the "master plan". After all, how far are we from the iFilm online store? 4 years?
Publicly help multi billion dollar companies do not ignore potential markets because their CEO's don't like them.
If market research shows such a product is likely to be profitable, we will see it.
Steve doesn't like Windows either, but Apple makes things for it.
Thank you.
Everyone always says "well steve hates tv". Well Steve also hates losing, and will add tv as a hub spoke when hdtv really hits. I have a Tivo and love it. Would I like an Apple solution? You bet. But right now is still very early in this market. There are still legal issues to be resolved (remember the phrase "deep pockets"), and technical challenges to getting something to Apple like simplicity. Apple is in great position to have an amazing HDTV solution.
Also, isn't there a new digital cable decoder standard? I remember seeing something about how with this standard, TV makers could build the cable tuners right in, eliminating the need for a cable set top box. If true, this could enable Apple to create an integrated media center solution.
Everyone always says "well steve hates tv". Well Steve also hates losing, and will add tv as a hub spoke when hdtv really hits.
When HDTV really hits, I expect Apple to be there with production solutions and DVD-like solutions so that people can play back things that they've specifically chosen to watch on their Macs, if necessary.
The TV is a place where you "turn your brain off," but it's also very well attended already. By the time HDTV goes mainstream, who will not have a DVD player (far, far cheaper than any PC) and a remote (far cheaper and far more to hand than any PC)? Who will prefer to watch anything on a PC screen vs. (say) my roommate's 52" Toshiba? Especially given that laptops are taking off, and they aren't going to be sporting 30" screens! The TV god already has a priesthood, and it's already better suited for what it does than any PC at any sane price point will be. And it's a place where you go to "turn your brain off," which means there's very little Apple can offer as a value add: It's a final destination, a receptacle, and the companies who create content for delivery to that destination prefer it that way. That leaves Apple very little to improve upon.
The legal, cultural and contractual landscape would have to change dramatically before this area became attractive to Apple, and given that the industry is pumping lots of money into changing that landscape in the other direction, that's not going to happen any time soon. Apple's only real hope is to capture the production end, so that's where they're focusing their efforts even now.
On another topic, grid computing looks like a necessary precursor to Apple's employment of IBM's cell technology, wherever they end up deciding to deploy it.
On another topic, grid computing looks like a necessary precursor to Apple's employment of IBM's cell technology, wherever they end up deciding to deploy it.
When HDTV really hits, I expect Apple to be there with production solutions and DVD-like solutions so that people can play back things that they've specifically chosen to watch on their Macs, if necessary.
The TV is a place where you "turn your brain off," but it's also very well attended already. By the time HDTV goes mainstream, who will not have a DVD player (far, far cheaper than any PC) and a remote (far cheaper and far more to hand than any PC)?
I don't have a crystal ball/palantir ... so it's hard for me to say anything for sure, but here's some things I've noticed - they may or may not be true, but I think they're closer to the truth than much of the stuff I've heard before.
The more you use the internet, the less you seem to give a crap about TV. Personally, I hate TV, and haven't watched mine in probably 3 or 4 months ... but of course, I'm a freak, so it's probably not a good idea to over-map my experience onto Joe 6-pack (the majority of the population?), who lives for TSN and gets his view of the world from FOX (interesting Article on that here ) ...
However, Joe 6-Pack isn't much of a market leader any more, other than on perhaps pick-ups, guns and cheap beer with a wild animal on the label ... at best, maybe sports bars might start showing HDTV broadcasts to entice him and his kind into the place, and maybe for reasons of status, a few J6P's will buy a few HDTV systems and delay getting the new pickup (or whatever status symbol works for them) by a year or two ... but I just don't see it. J6P's with enough money to throw away on HDTV systems are a pretty rare breed these days ...
I think TiVO might help to save Television for a while, and therefore TiVO might do the same for HDTV ... but I think TV, of any resolution, is simply going to be more and more niched out of the enter/infotainment market place by the internet ...
But before we can predict TV's possible future success, we have to at least try and figure out why it was/is so popular.
I think the best place to start is to understand that people DON'T just watch TV for the entertainment value - people also watch TV as much or perhaps more, for a sense of belonging - a sense of "I relate and belong with those people", TV isn't called the "Electronic BabySitter" for nothing, and the babysitting doesn't just stop with babies ... one reason why there's soooo many hot blondes on Television, and so many of them appear as reasonable, intelligent and approachable - is not just because they're easier on the eyes, though obviously it helps - it's because that's the group we tend to feel best believing we somehow belong to , women included; the "sense of relation" currency from such "alpha" people is, and has always been - like it or not, felt as higher in value ... the fact that it's almost the exact opposite in real life changes nothing, in fact, the two tend to feed each other.
In short, people watch TV not just to BE entertained, but also to not FEEL so alone ... the "nuclear" family having been around for, at most, a hundred or so years ... and the "dictatorship of the individual" is a scary, insecure, parnoia inducing place to be, especially when everybody else around you is trying to pull-off the same thing. So, we watch TV like a person who eats too much chocolate and then smears benzoil peroxide on his face to at least try and keep the zits under control ... more chocolate/more benzoil ... more chocolate/more benzoil ...
But there's only so far you can take the current Television model ... and how many ways can you slice up the advertising/psychographic/sense of relation/broadcast system before you either can't afford to make enough content to support your tiny slice, or there's too many different micro-channels vying for limited bandwidth on a bottlenecked delivery system ... so TV, regardless of it's definition, standard or hi, may very well remain forever as the good looking, charming guy at the party ... approachable, never offensive, but you never quite make contact with him ... what he says is almost never too far from a safe cliche, or something you didn't already know anyway ... it's just that it's comforting to hear an Alpha mouth the words, however insincere they may be ... but the catch is, a party full of enough Alpha's that a few of them might actually have something to say of direct interest to you, is a problem, because Alpha's don't come cheap, and a party full of them is more hi quality punch and dip than the current model can afford.
I don't see how HDTV really changes this.
... but I can see how the internet may eventually kick the pants off TV for the "sense-of-relation" problem, the catch for the moment is only a small segment of the population can get that sense of relation better through the internet ... a medium mostly of text, some graphics, and even fewer moving images ...
Let's face it, we're that segment, one of the big attractions of AI is that it gives us Geeks a place to hang out with other Geeks ... this isn't it's only value of course, but helping with the "sense-of-relation" problem is a big part of what makes AI work, and a big part of why I don't bother watching much television anymore (this isn't just thanks to AI of course, but other sites on the net as well) ... I'm sure the same holds true for Slashdot, and just about any other on-line "community", many people will find they just tend to watch less and less televsion because they can get a better "sense-of-relation" elsehwere ... how can TV possibly compete against this? By going HD and having those hot blondes read the news naked? Believe me, that's their "Queen", and they may very well put it into play and delay things for a while, but in the end, I don't think it will change things much.
Eventually, I think computers will eat TV, the same way they've eaten desktop publishing, music production, television production and soon, even movie production ... not just because they're a better way of making content, but because the internet and the killer continuing improvement in computing horsepower, eventually does a much better job presenting that content to the end user and of solving that "sense-of-belonging" problem, through a two way delivery system, than TV can.
Case in point ... when a freak like me, can - all on his own - do something like this ) - even with a tower sticking out of my head in the opening shot, it's only a matter of time before other freaks start making more content of their own, and start getting good at it, and learn how to make it entertaining. Who knows, maybe some of those freaks might even be good looking?
Television Channels? Forget it, go onto Google, do a search along the lines of "Other freaks like OverToasty who do videos" and there's much of your programming for the evening; because probably by then, there'll be many more freaks with production chops.
Sure we have problems with standards and bandwidth, the question is, who can get there first, and solve the sense of relation problem the best? I just don't see television doing this, no matter how many polls it might offer on guessing-what-the-next-superbowl-play-might-be ... I also don't see Television being able to compete with the ever increasing number of codecs and formats offered over the internet ... let's face it folks, the days of one standard format, like NTSC, ruling the roost for 50 years are over ... I think it's much more likely that a computer monitor, the ultimate chameleon for resolution and codecs (because they've been forced to include that into the system from the start) will be able to roll with these changes far easier than one monolithic system, such as HD and $4000 sets, ever will.
I think TiVO might delay the computer's dominance for a while, and HDTV might make things more sexy, but in the end, I think broadcast television as we know it (even over satelite) is doomed to become a niche player, in a far more personalized, far more interactive space ... and I think this is especially so, since the very people HDTV will try to reach, those early adoptors marketers speak so much about - in this case, people like us - are the very people who are turning off their TV sets, and getting their "sense-of-relation" vitamins from the internet in ever increasing numbers.
Though, to be honest, a few years of naked news HDTV would be a nice distraction
OverToasty, that's the most insightful article on the future of TV I've ever seen. Everyone's noticed that print media such as newspapers and magazines are dying, and books are fading, and radio is pretty much dead; but you've pointed out that TV is dying too, and why, and how. Good work!
I believe there are panels out there to make the 30" LCD monitor a reality. There's even a little wiggle room left in DVI to up the res a bit (for a 16:10 screen). They can easily go to 2048x1280; DVI has headroom for 2048x1536, so the can probably push a more rectangular aspect to about 2240x1400 before they need change DVI/ADC or add more links (the current DVI has 2 integral links with 6 channels, or something liek that, an earlier, compatible standard that maxxed out at 1280x1024 had one link)
I wandered about the Sony Store the other day looking at some of the new HDTV panels. MOST are NOT really HDTV panels, where they feature the clandestine markings "HDTV ready" or "HDTV Compatible." A good number of them are 1080i compatible (like Sony's DRC sets) but this will still be taxing as a computer display. With the HDTV changeover set to happen in 2006, unless it gets pushed again, and cable/satellite companies ready to support analogue sets for a good long time (with their digital "boxes") It may be a while before we see true HDTV penetration anywhere.
I only bring this all up now to say I still think we're going to start seeing 1080P TV/Monitor displays over the next two years, and that is very exciting for while the computer display may move well beyond 1920x1080, if the display is a high refresh or LCD based progessive system (not talking about the signal decoder, but the actual native capabilities) then to me, those make, for the first time, acceptable computer "monitors" and I expect the first family of SET-TOP computers, or small headless (cube-like or component like) computers to really start making an impact on consumer purchasing.
Imagine hooking a circa 2006 cube into your 42" plasma display ( @ 1920x1080P) and having an instant PVR/media center ready for your command, or really surfing from your couch. Think of the boon to parents. I'd go for such a set-up for the family computer. Sitting in the family room it suddenly becomes REALLY REALLY easy to monitor what your rugrats are up to.
I say Bring on the HDTV (and some faster firewire links to really make teh component computer paradigm work!)
OverToasty, that's the most insightful article on the future of TV I've ever seen. Everyone's noticed that print media such as newspapers and magazines are dying, and books are fading, and radio is pretty much dead; but you've pointed out that TV is dying too, and why, and how. Good work!
Amen. My HDTV has a DVI input and while I CAN hook my PB 17" up to it, it's more of a pain...connector is in the rear. Ever try moving a 65" TV just to hook up your computer? Bah....
I think the computer/TV combo could be a winner, if done right. And knowing Apple, they tend to implement technology the right way. Definately not Gateway-ish.
And Kormac, 50-50 so far, keep up the info, even if it's years, or in the Grid case, closer than we all think (I think it'll be even closer than MWSF).
Traditionally computers like this end up having an identity crisis. Macintosh TV, nuff said. I hope this doesn't happen if we do see an HDTV Mac. I would love something like that, but we'll have to wait and see.
Comments
Originally posted by JLL
And it was not known by kormac either - he guesses by hunting the web for new technologies, nothing more.
Unlike 99% of the board, right?
Seriously, so what? He said a good long while ago that he was just speculating at this point, and people still tried to jump on him for passing speculation off as inside information.
Lay off the guy, and look at his posts. If you don't like them, ignore them. I would like to see just one kormac thread discuss Future Hardware, rather than turn into yet another pissing match. Is that too much to ask?
Originally posted by Amorph
Unlike 99% of the board, right?
Seriously, so what? He said a good long while ago that he was just speculating at this point, and people still tried to jump on him for passing speculation off as inside information.
Lay off the guy, and look at his posts. If you don't like them, ignore them. I would like to see just one kormac thread discuss Future Hardware, rather than turn into yet another pissing match. Is that too much to ask?
Nope, speculation is welcome along with any other FH thought patterns (except maybe the Taaaaablet...)
Originally posted by Amorph
Lay off the guy, and look at his posts. If you don't like them, ignore them. I would like to see just one kormac thread discuss Future Hardware, rather than turn into yet another pissing match. Is that too much to ask?
HEAR HEAR!
Originally posted by Mandricard
HEAR HEAR!
I second that!
Kormac, I enjoy reading your speculations (and it may be based on inside information too, don't forget). I'm well aware of the need to filter info. Alot of these posters just want the "full scoop", and don't realize that companies can easily change directions (and be ruthless as well to those that are caught sharing secrets). Take whatever precautions are necessary, but hint when you feel you can.
Originally posted by Rhumgod
That's not the Grid computing of which I speak. Take a look at this article on the definition of Grid Computing.
Interesting article, thanks for linking it.
To briefly summarize, the individual nodes (i.e. complete computers/servers) in clustering are discrete. Specifically, each server runs an OS with complete control over the computer's resources, with an application running that accepts blocks of work to be done (SETI @ Home is an example of this arrangement).
Grid computing appears to be much more transparent (to a user) allocation of resources in a company. For example, if someone is looking to render an image/video, the computer he or she is using would go out and recruit processing cycles, file storage etc. from all computers attached to the network in order to complete the task.
Grid computing in a sense would be simpler to implement, in that you could theoretically drop additional boxes into a network, which would immediately benefit the entire network. Currently you need to spend a relatively large amount of time configuring the box (unless you are cloning drives), set-up the clustering app, tell the clustering controller app to send jobs to the new box, etc.
The 30" LCD would be an absolute winner for a number of reasons. Getting into HD is eminently do-able now, even for a small shop like me; you rent the camera, you rent the VTR, do an offline edit in DV or whatever and then rent the VTR again to do your online (HD cards are down to $2K now) what you need for the whole process is a bloody HD monitor which cost $30-40K. A $3-4K 30"LCD with some sort of HD input would fly off the shelves and give Sony a good kicking which Apple always seem to enjoy. I don't think it is supposed to be a consumer TV convergence type product.
However, that may be a possibility for a new iMac. Steve's comments should always be taken in context. They are never 'off-the-cuff' and tend to be exercises in expectation management at a particular point in time. The great thing about Jobs vers. 2.0 is that he is willing to accept the realities of the public's desires within the context of the "master plan". After all, how far are we from the iFilm online store? 4 years?
Originally posted by visigothe
It's been stated many times before that His Steveness hates television. If a 30" LCD comes to the Faithful, it will be for use with a Macintosh.
Publicly help multi billion dollar companies do not ignore potential markets because their CEO's don't like them.
If market research shows such a product is likely to be profitable, we will see it.
Steve doesn't like Windows either, but Apple makes things for it.
Originally posted by jouster
Publicly help multi billion dollar companies do not ignore potential markets because their CEO's don't like them.
If market research shows such a product is likely to be profitable, we will see it.
Steve doesn't like Windows either, but Apple makes things for it.
Thank you.
Everyone always says "well steve hates tv". Well Steve also hates losing, and will add tv as a hub spoke when hdtv really hits. I have a Tivo and love it. Would I like an Apple solution? You bet. But right now is still very early in this market. There are still legal issues to be resolved (remember the phrase "deep pockets"), and technical challenges to getting something to Apple like simplicity. Apple is in great position to have an amazing HDTV solution.
Also, isn't there a new digital cable decoder standard? I remember seeing something about how with this standard, TV makers could build the cable tuners right in, eliminating the need for a cable set top box. If true, this could enable Apple to create an integrated media center solution.
Originally posted by kim kap sol
I choose not to believe. I hope that doesn't hurt your feelings though.
But yeah, cheers to kormac.
Originally posted by blue2kdave
Thank you.
Everyone always says "well steve hates tv". Well Steve also hates losing, and will add tv as a hub spoke when hdtv really hits.
When HDTV really hits, I expect Apple to be there with production solutions and DVD-like solutions so that people can play back things that they've specifically chosen to watch on their Macs, if necessary.
The TV is a place where you "turn your brain off," but it's also very well attended already. By the time HDTV goes mainstream, who will not have a DVD player (far, far cheaper than any PC) and a remote (far cheaper and far more to hand than any PC)? Who will prefer to watch anything on a PC screen vs. (say) my roommate's 52" Toshiba? Especially given that laptops are taking off, and they aren't going to be sporting 30" screens! The TV god already has a priesthood, and it's already better suited for what it does than any PC at any sane price point will be. And it's a place where you go to "turn your brain off," which means there's very little Apple can offer as a value add: It's a final destination, a receptacle, and the companies who create content for delivery to that destination prefer it that way. That leaves Apple very little to improve upon.
The legal, cultural and contractual landscape would have to change dramatically before this area became attractive to Apple, and given that the industry is pumping lots of money into changing that landscape in the other direction, that's not going to happen any time soon. Apple's only real hope is to capture the production end, so that's where they're focusing their efforts even now.
On another topic, grid computing looks like a necessary precursor to Apple's employment of IBM's cell technology, wherever they end up deciding to deploy it.
Originally posted by Amorph
On another topic, grid computing looks like a necessary precursor to Apple's employment of IBM's cell technology, wherever they end up deciding to deploy it.
Been hanging out on Ars again?
Originally posted by Amorph
When HDTV really hits, I expect Apple to be there with production solutions and DVD-like solutions so that people can play back things that they've specifically chosen to watch on their Macs, if necessary.
The TV is a place where you "turn your brain off," but it's also very well attended already. By the time HDTV goes mainstream, who will not have a DVD player (far, far cheaper than any PC) and a remote (far cheaper and far more to hand than any PC)?
I don't have a crystal ball/palantir ... so it's hard for me to say anything for sure, but here's some things I've noticed - they may or may not be true, but I think they're closer to the truth than much of the stuff I've heard before.
The more you use the internet, the less you seem to give a crap about TV. Personally, I hate TV, and haven't watched mine in probably 3 or 4 months ... but of course, I'm a freak, so it's probably not a good idea to over-map my experience onto Joe 6-pack (the majority of the population?), who lives for TSN and gets his view of the world from FOX (interesting Article on that here ) ...
However, Joe 6-Pack isn't much of a market leader any more, other than on perhaps pick-ups, guns and cheap beer with a wild animal on the label ... at best, maybe sports bars might start showing HDTV broadcasts to entice him and his kind into the place, and maybe for reasons of status, a few J6P's will buy a few HDTV systems and delay getting the new pickup (or whatever status symbol works for them) by a year or two ... but I just don't see it. J6P's with enough money to throw away on HDTV systems are a pretty rare breed these days ...
I think TiVO might help to save Television for a while, and therefore TiVO might do the same for HDTV ... but I think TV, of any resolution, is simply going to be more and more niched out of the enter/infotainment market place by the internet ...
But before we can predict TV's possible future success, we have to at least try and figure out why it was/is so popular.
I think the best place to start is to understand that people DON'T just watch TV for the entertainment value - people also watch TV as much or perhaps more, for a sense of belonging - a sense of "I relate and belong with those people", TV isn't called the "Electronic BabySitter" for nothing, and the babysitting doesn't just stop with babies ... one reason why there's soooo many hot blondes on Television, and so many of them appear as reasonable, intelligent and approachable - is not just because they're easier on the eyes, though obviously it helps - it's because that's the group we tend to feel best believing we somehow belong to , women included; the "sense of relation" currency from such "alpha" people is, and has always been - like it or not, felt as higher in value ... the fact that it's almost the exact opposite in real life changes nothing, in fact, the two tend to feed each other.
In short, people watch TV not just to BE entertained, but also to not FEEL so alone ... the "nuclear" family having been around for, at most, a hundred or so years ... and the "dictatorship of the individual" is a scary, insecure, parnoia inducing place to be, especially when everybody else around you is trying to pull-off the same thing. So, we watch TV like a person who eats too much chocolate and then smears benzoil peroxide on his face to at least try and keep the zits under control ... more chocolate/more benzoil ... more chocolate/more benzoil ...
But there's only so far you can take the current Television model ... and how many ways can you slice up the advertising/psychographic/sense of relation/broadcast system before you either can't afford to make enough content to support your tiny slice, or there's too many different micro-channels vying for limited bandwidth on a bottlenecked delivery system ... so TV, regardless of it's definition, standard or hi, may very well remain forever as the good looking, charming guy at the party ... approachable, never offensive, but you never quite make contact with him ... what he says is almost never too far from a safe cliche, or something you didn't already know anyway ... it's just that it's comforting to hear an Alpha mouth the words, however insincere they may be ... but the catch is, a party full of enough Alpha's that a few of them might actually have something to say of direct interest to you, is a problem, because Alpha's don't come cheap, and a party full of them is more hi quality punch and dip than the current model can afford.
I don't see how HDTV really changes this.
... but I can see how the internet may eventually kick the pants off TV for the "sense-of-relation" problem, the catch for the moment is only a small segment of the population can get that sense of relation better through the internet ... a medium mostly of text, some graphics, and even fewer moving images ...
Let's face it, we're that segment, one of the big attractions of AI is that it gives us Geeks a place to hang out with other Geeks ... this isn't it's only value of course, but helping with the "sense-of-relation" problem is a big part of what makes AI work, and a big part of why I don't bother watching much television anymore (this isn't just thanks to AI of course, but other sites on the net as well) ... I'm sure the same holds true for Slashdot, and just about any other on-line "community", many people will find they just tend to watch less and less televsion because they can get a better "sense-of-relation" elsehwere ... how can TV possibly compete against this? By going HD and having those hot blondes read the news naked? Believe me, that's their "Queen", and they may very well put it into play and delay things for a while, but in the end, I don't think it will change things much.
Eventually, I think computers will eat TV, the same way they've eaten desktop publishing, music production, television production and soon, even movie production ... not just because they're a better way of making content, but because the internet and the killer continuing improvement in computing horsepower, eventually does a much better job presenting that content to the end user and of solving that "sense-of-belonging" problem, through a two way delivery system, than TV can.
Case in point ... when a freak like me, can - all on his own - do something like this ) - even with a tower sticking out of my head in the opening shot, it's only a matter of time before other freaks start making more content of their own, and start getting good at it, and learn how to make it entertaining. Who knows, maybe some of those freaks might even be good looking?
Television Channels? Forget it, go onto Google, do a search along the lines of "Other freaks like OverToasty who do videos" and there's much of your programming for the evening; because probably by then, there'll be many more freaks with production chops.
Sure we have problems with standards and bandwidth, the question is, who can get there first, and solve the sense of relation problem the best? I just don't see television doing this, no matter how many polls it might offer on guessing-what-the-next-superbowl-play-might-be ... I also don't see Television being able to compete with the ever increasing number of codecs and formats offered over the internet ... let's face it folks, the days of one standard format, like NTSC, ruling the roost for 50 years are over ... I think it's much more likely that a computer monitor, the ultimate chameleon for resolution and codecs (because they've been forced to include that into the system from the start) will be able to roll with these changes far easier than one monolithic system, such as HD and $4000 sets, ever will.
I think TiVO might delay the computer's dominance for a while, and HDTV might make things more sexy, but in the end, I think broadcast television as we know it (even over satelite) is doomed to become a niche player, in a far more personalized, far more interactive space ... and I think this is especially so, since the very people HDTV will try to reach, those early adoptors marketers speak so much about - in this case, people like us - are the very people who are turning off their TV sets, and getting their "sense-of-relation" vitamins from the internet in ever increasing numbers.
Though, to be honest, a few years of naked news HDTV would be a nice distraction
I wandered about the Sony Store the other day looking at some of the new HDTV panels. MOST are NOT really HDTV panels, where they feature the clandestine markings "HDTV ready" or "HDTV Compatible." A good number of them are 1080i compatible (like Sony's DRC sets) but this will still be taxing as a computer display. With the HDTV changeover set to happen in 2006, unless it gets pushed again, and cable/satellite companies ready to support analogue sets for a good long time (with their digital "boxes") It may be a while before we see true HDTV penetration anywhere.
I only bring this all up now to say I still think we're going to start seeing 1080P TV/Monitor displays over the next two years, and that is very exciting for while the computer display may move well beyond 1920x1080, if the display is a high refresh or LCD based progessive system (not talking about the signal decoder, but the actual native capabilities) then to me, those make, for the first time, acceptable computer "monitors" and I expect the first family of SET-TOP computers, or small headless (cube-like or component like) computers to really start making an impact on consumer purchasing.
Imagine hooking a circa 2006 cube into your 42" plasma display ( @ 1920x1080P) and having an instant PVR/media center ready for your command, or really surfing from your couch. Think of the boon to parents. I'd go for such a set-up for the family computer. Sitting in the family room it suddenly becomes REALLY REALLY easy to monitor what your rugrats are up to.
I say Bring on the HDTV (and some faster firewire links to really make teh component computer paradigm work!)
PS.
Kormac...
Hope Springs Eternal,
Mandricard
AppleOutsider
Originally posted by cubist
OverToasty, that's the most insightful article on the future of TV I've ever seen. Everyone's noticed that print media such as newspapers and magazines are dying, and books are fading, and radio is pretty much dead; but you've pointed out that TV is dying too, and why, and how. Good work!
... Thanks Cubist!
... (blush) ...
Originally posted by Rhumgod
Amen. My HDTV has a DVI input and while I CAN hook my PB 17" up to it, it's more of a pain...connector is in the rear. Ever try moving a 65" TV just to hook up your computer? Bah....
I think the computer/TV combo could be a winner, if done right. And knowing Apple, they tend to implement technology the right way. Definately not Gateway-ish.
And Kormac, 50-50 so far, keep up the info, even if it's years, or in the Grid case, closer than we all think (I think it'll be even closer than MWSF).
Traditionally computers like this end up having an identity crisis. Macintosh TV, nuff said. I hope this doesn't happen if we do see an HDTV Mac. I would love something like that, but we'll have to wait and see.