Of course we don't, but guessing, and wishing, and hoping are part of the Macintosh ecosystem this time of year. It goes with the joy of Christmas, and the anticipation of New Year.
Trying to guess what surprises Mac World will bring is part of the Apple Way. Go with the flow, enjoy the spirit of the Season. Don't forget we all get to bitch after the Show, when Apple, as usual goes it's own way.
Reading some of these posts iit becomes clear that, Expo by Expo by cease-and-desist, The Steve is slowly beating the imagination out of us.
I don't mean this in a nasty way, but Apple - by controlling leaks in a way that most governments would love to achieve - have so starved us of the oxygen of information that - when combined with out of cycle product releases and special announcements - we have no idea what makes sense anymore.
A case in point: the iMac!
Crying out for a major update, the iMac would have been my call for a "one more thing" on 01/05 - it's the 20th anniversary, we think the 970FX is available and Panther is now out of its cage.
But then Apple give it the 20" update just before Thanksgiving; Is that a curveball designed to throw off speculation about a 20th anniversary iMac? Is it a piece of engineering/market research designed to validate that the iMac customer wants a 20" screen and is willing to pay? Is it a way of using an excess of 20" panels in the marketplace?
And the answer is: I don't ****ing know
That said, my bets are:
Blurb on success of G5: 350K unit sales during quarter, fastest selling professional Mac since whenever: time to build on success; new models 2.4 dual, 2.2 dual, 2.0 single. Still on track for 3.0GHz by late summer.
Big blurb on iTMS and iPod - cumulative 30m downloads since launch + 550->700K unit sales during quarter ending 12/31. Reminder of Pepsi promotion. Expect some gloating over competition.
iPods 'own' marketplace for user/choosers, but new models needed for children and teenage markets, plus those who - strange as it might seem - don't need 2000 songs to go. Introduces myPod: new 1GB (250 songs) / 2GB (500 songs) models, controls on side edge, touch-resistant strip on side in place of scrollwheel; embedded Hitachi Microdrives.
Both models available in silver or black from Superbowl weekend: 1GB is $175, 2GB is $225.
So that updates one element of the Digital Hub, maybe we need to do some more - introduces new revs of all iLife packages: iTunes gets new mix capability - almost like an entry-level Soundtrack - and iTMS allows purchase/download of production quality royalty-free loops/music clips for iPhoto/iMovie/iDVD productions.
(One more thing coming in a later post)
edit changes capacity of myPod to 1/2 as opposed to 2/4 (for cost reasons) and is more specific on whats in them.
If the rumor sites are true and the only new hardware is iPod related, and the emphasis is on music, then it becomes less MacWorld and more cross-platform-music-gadget-World.
Now I'm very pro iPod (had a 1st Gen and now have a 30 GB 3rd Gen) but would anyone else be a bit peeved about this change of focus? That is, using a Mac show to boost Apple's music initiatives.
After all, most of us care about Mac stuff more than music, no?
Hoping at least the supposed non-iTunes iLife updates will balance it a bit.
This is what I said in another thread some months ago: -
Quote:
What if a G5-powered iMac (which I'll refer to a 3GiM, for 3rd Generation iMac) and a G5-powered Cube (2GC) were, in reality, the same thing?
To expand, what if Jonathan Ive and his little band of industrial design pixies decided - on the basis of some vague prophecy from the Dalai Lama of Integration ((c) 2003 Bono, used under license) - that Apple needs as much as a G5-powered AIO is a new Cube, but also a Cube+ that sports a minimum degree of expansion.
First of all, design a new Cube (2GC) as your starting point using 0.09-based 1.8 and 2.0 G5s as a starting point, 60GB disk as standard (100GB option), 512MB RAM standard (2GB maximum), Side-loading Combo drive standard (Superdrive optional), 2 x 400mb Firewire, 1 x 800mb, 5 x USB 2.0, 10/100/1000 Ethernet; V.92 modem is BTO option in the broadband age.
But this 2GC displays multiple personalities, through a clever edge connector, that docks with a variety of expansion bases (in my head the connector is on the bottom): One base unit - designed for the business market and my so-called Cube+ (2GC+) - has VGA/ADC video interfaces and a PCI expansion slot, a second merely the VGA/ADC interface (2GC), and a third provides the same functionality as 2GC+, but with an integrated 17" LCD display as per the current iMac, thus creating 3GiM.
Such an arrangement would give Apple a variety of systems for a variety of marketplaces: 2GC would address lifestyle computing types who need to drive a larger display than iMac provides, 2GC+ would address business types and allow them to use cheaper VGA-based displays.
3GiM would address the majority of domestic computing needs with the benefit that a user could upgrade the 3GiM base at the end of two years to the current model and get the benefits of GPU advancement, without the hassle/expense of buying a new system. In addition, 3GiM would give iMac users the opportunity for PCI expansion for the first time.
Now apart from the fact that 17" is now possibly 20", that would be a model suitable for marking the 20th anniversary?
AIO for them that needs it; cheap, cheerful and VGA-compatible for them that wants it!
If the rumor sites are true and the only new hardware is iPod related, and the emphasis is on music, then it becomes less MacWorld and more cross-platform-music-gadget-World.
Now I'm very pro iPod (had a 1st Gen and now have a 30 GB 3rd Gen) but would anyone else be a bit peeved about this change of focus? That is, using a Mac show to boost Apple's music initiatives.
After all, most of us care about Mac stuff more than music, no?
Hoping at least the supposed non-iTunes iLife updates will balance it a bit.
Not really, it would be a cross-platform-music-gadget-World Keynote if even that. MacWorld also boasts new product releases from dozens of other companies that make the Mac the well rounded platform it is.
I was hoping you'd come up with some sort of a portable time machine that also does your laundry, the dishes and puts the garbage outside, but a G5 Cube
would be nice too of course , but I'm not holding my breath...
Originally posted by Mark- Card Carrying FanaticRealist
iPods 'own' marketplace for user/choosers, but new models needed for children and teenage markets, plus those who - strange as it might seem - don't need 2000 songs to go. Introduces myPod: new 1GB (250 songs) / 2GB (500 songs) models, controls on side edge, touch-resistant strip on side in place of scrollwheel; embedded Hitachi Microdrives.
Both models available in silver or black from Superbowl weekend: 1GB is $175, 2GB is $225.
Dunno...
iPod 01GB $175.00
iPod 02GB $225.00 (Double size for $75 more)
iPod 10GB $299.00 (5X size for $74 more)
iPod 20GB $399.00 (Double size for $100 more)
iPod 40GB $499.00 (Double size for $100 more)
The 2GB seems pretty far outta whack...
2GB for $100 and 4GB for $200 would seem to fit better... (cost of parts to build the devices not withstanding)
Then you'd have
iPod 02GB $99.00
iPod 04GB $199.00 (Double size for $100 more)
iPod 10GB $299.00 (Double+ size for $100 more)
iPod 20GB $399.00 (Double size for $100 more)
iPod 40GB $499.00 (Double size for $100 more)
Again... cost of parts (as far as we know) might not / would not allow for this... but forgoing cost this would seems to be more in line with their current price plan.
What about a .Mac update? I could easily see the inclusion of a .Mac blog service where you can subscribe to your favorite blogs and have them synched with your iPod.
Steve comes out on stage looking really angry and says
"We wanted to keep milking the 1.6 and 1.8 Ghz G5 for a couple more months like we were used to doing with Motorola, but as of last week IBM is just refusing to make us any G5s below 2 Ghz! Something about great yields or something. . . . Well, we're really upset, so we're gonna keep Moto around for a year or two to slow things down while wean our design teams off taking 3 month long vacations after we update a product. In summary: Look forward to 6 Ghz G5 desktops and 1.3 Ghz G4 powerbooks in 2005!"
Again... cost of parts (as far as we know) might not / would not allow for this... but forgoing cost this would seems to be more in line with their current price plan.
Dave
Actually, it goes the other way:
40GB is 499
20GB (50% of the capacity of the 40) is 399 (80% of the cost of the 40)
10GB (50% of the capacity of the 30) is 299 (75% of the cost of the 30)
2GB (20% of the 10) could be 225 (75% of the 10)
1GB (50% of the 2) could be 175-180 (80% of the 2)
The only realistic component in town - at this time - is the Hitachi 2GB microdrive; Cornice only produce in 1.5GB and the 4GB microdrive is ridiculously expensive UNLESS Apple has managed to cut some amazing deal (around 30% of the standard 'street price').
Introducing at 225 is the way forward, if you want to have an upgrade path that ultimately builds a secondary product family - initially on Microdrive - that looks like 4GB/2GB/1GB for $225/$180/$125, but ultimately becomes 0.85"-based 4GB/3GB/1.5GB for the same price points in around two generations (or in time for Xmas 2005).
Apple needs to sell at 225 initially, because:
a) it has the premium product in the marketplace, and there is a whole 'perceived value' equation going on. My case: the iPod is more expensive than any of the competition, yet occupies 3 out 5 market leadership positions because the value and quality it represents - cost is not the driver here.
b) if it is "going small' for myPod, there will be product engineering and tooling costs that need to be recovered in the early-adopter phase.
c) The component costs - even at 2GB - will be a killer to Apple, unless it resorts to 'cheaper' concepts like Sony's version of a jog-wheel and really small LCD displays. Then you have to add in marketing costs, shipping, etc.
Seriously, I'd bet my remaining bottles of DeLoach Zinfandel - not easy to get hold of over here - that the market would bear $225 in the US (£199 here) and $180/£150 for the smaller model.
Comments
I've got a stress pip if it helps...
Lemon Bon Bon
Originally posted by geekmeet
you guys got squat!
you got nothing!...
Of course we don't, but guessing, and wishing, and hoping are part of the Macintosh ecosystem this time of year. It goes with the joy of Christmas, and the anticipation of New Year.
Trying to guess what surprises Mac World will bring is part of the Apple Way. Go with the flow, enjoy the spirit of the Season. Don't forget we all get to bitch after the Show, when Apple, as usual goes it's own way.
I don't mean this in a nasty way, but Apple - by controlling leaks in a way that most governments would love to achieve - have so starved us of the oxygen of information that - when combined with out of cycle product releases and special announcements - we have no idea what makes sense anymore.
A case in point: the iMac!
Crying out for a major update, the iMac would have been my call for a "one more thing" on 01/05 - it's the 20th anniversary, we think the 970FX is available and Panther is now out of its cage.
But then Apple give it the 20" update just before Thanksgiving; Is that a curveball designed to throw off speculation about a 20th anniversary iMac? Is it a piece of engineering/market research designed to validate that the iMac customer wants a 20" screen and is willing to pay? Is it a way of using an excess of 20" panels in the marketplace?
And the answer is:
That said, my bets are:
Blurb on success of G5: 350K unit sales during quarter, fastest selling professional Mac since whenever: time to build on success; new models 2.4 dual, 2.2 dual, 2.0 single. Still on track for 3.0GHz by late summer.
Big blurb on iTMS and iPod - cumulative 30m downloads since launch + 550->700K unit sales during quarter ending 12/31. Reminder of Pepsi promotion. Expect some gloating over competition.
iPods 'own' marketplace for user/choosers, but new models needed for children and teenage markets, plus those who - strange as it might seem - don't need 2000 songs to go. Introduces myPod: new 1GB (250 songs) / 2GB (500 songs) models, controls on side edge, touch-resistant strip on side in place of scrollwheel; embedded Hitachi Microdrives.
Both models available in silver or black from Superbowl weekend: 1GB is $175, 2GB is $225.
So that updates one element of the Digital Hub, maybe we need to do some more - introduces new revs of all iLife packages: iTunes gets new mix capability - almost like an entry-level Soundtrack - and iTMS allows purchase/download of production quality royalty-free loops/music clips for iPhoto/iMovie/iDVD productions.
(One more thing coming in a later post)
edit changes capacity of myPod to 1/2 as opposed to 2/4 (for cost reasons) and is more specific on whats in them.
Originally posted by Mark- Card Carrying FanaticRealist
(One more thing coming in a later post)
Aaaargh, the agony is unbearable!
Now I'm very pro iPod (had a 1st Gen and now have a 30 GB 3rd Gen) but would anyone else be a bit peeved about this change of focus? That is, using a Mac show to boost Apple's music initiatives.
After all, most of us care about Mac stuff more than music, no?
Hoping at least the supposed non-iTunes iLife updates will balance it a bit.
Originally posted by Dylsexic Manupilator
Aaaargh, the agony is unbearable!
Well, DM, as you're so keen
This is what I said in another thread some months ago: -
What if a G5-powered iMac (which I'll refer to a 3GiM, for 3rd Generation iMac) and a G5-powered Cube (2GC) were, in reality, the same thing?
To expand, what if Jonathan Ive and his little band of industrial design pixies decided - on the basis of some vague prophecy from the Dalai Lama of Integration ((c) 2003 Bono, used under license) - that Apple needs as much as a G5-powered AIO is a new Cube, but also a Cube+ that sports a minimum degree of expansion.
First of all, design a new Cube (2GC) as your starting point using 0.09-based 1.8 and 2.0 G5s as a starting point, 60GB disk as standard (100GB option), 512MB RAM standard (2GB maximum), Side-loading Combo drive standard (Superdrive optional), 2 x 400mb Firewire, 1 x 800mb, 5 x USB 2.0, 10/100/1000 Ethernet; V.92 modem is BTO option in the broadband age.
But this 2GC displays multiple personalities, through a clever edge connector, that docks with a variety of expansion bases (in my head the connector is on the bottom): One base unit - designed for the business market and my so-called Cube+ (2GC+) - has VGA/ADC video interfaces and a PCI expansion slot, a second merely the VGA/ADC interface (2GC), and a third provides the same functionality as 2GC+, but with an integrated 17" LCD display as per the current iMac, thus creating 3GiM.
Such an arrangement would give Apple a variety of systems for a variety of marketplaces: 2GC would address lifestyle computing types who need to drive a larger display than iMac provides, 2GC+ would address business types and allow them to use cheaper VGA-based displays.
3GiM would address the majority of domestic computing needs with the benefit that a user could upgrade the 3GiM base at the end of two years to the current model and get the benefits of GPU advancement, without the hassle/expense of buying a new system. In addition, 3GiM would give iMac users the opportunity for PCI expansion for the first time.
Now apart from the fact that 17" is now possibly 20", that would be a model suitable for marking the 20th anniversary?
AIO for them that needs it; cheap, cheerful and VGA-compatible for them that wants it!
Seems the ideal 'One more thing' to me!
Originally posted by michaelb
If the rumor sites are true and the only new hardware is iPod related, and the emphasis is on music, then it becomes less MacWorld and more cross-platform-music-gadget-World.
Now I'm very pro iPod (had a 1st Gen and now have a 30 GB 3rd Gen) but would anyone else be a bit peeved about this change of focus? That is, using a Mac show to boost Apple's music initiatives.
After all, most of us care about Mac stuff more than music, no?
Hoping at least the supposed non-iTunes iLife updates will balance it a bit.
Not really, it would be a cross-platform-music-gadget-World Keynote if even that. MacWorld also boasts new product releases from dozens of other companies that make the Mac the well rounded platform it is.
In January at MWSF (announcing):
- Power Mac G5 SD 2.6GHz 1999$
- Power Mac G5 SD Dual 2.4GHz 2499$
- Power Mac G5 SD Dual 2.8GHz 3499$
- Cinema Display 20" 999$
- Cinema HD Display 24" 1999$
- Cinema HD Display 30" 2999$
- iPod Lite 2GB 149$
- iPod Lite 4GB 199$
- iTMS Europe
- iLife 2.0 (iTunes 4.5/ iMovie 3.5/ iPhoto 3/ iDVD 3.5) 49$
- Safari 1.5
- iSync 2.0
- Keynote 1.5 99$
- iWrite 1.0 99$
- iSound 1.0 99$
- Brand new IBM Compiler: XLC 1.0 (incl. autovektorisation) 799$
One more thing:
- The new Cube G4 (Motorola) Combo 1.0GHz 899$
- The new Cube G4 (Motorola) SD 1.25GHz 1099$
In February at MWT (announcing):
- Powerbook G5 (PPC970M) 12" Combo 2GHz 1599$
- Powerbook G5 (PPC970M) 15" Combo 2GHz 1999$
- Powerbook G5 (PPC970M) 17" 2GHz SD 2999$
- iTMS Japan
In March:
- Xserve G5 2.6GHz 2999$
- Xserve G5 Dual 2.6GHz 3999$
- iTMS Australia
In April:
- iMac G5 15" Combo 1.8GHz 1299$
- iMac G5 17" SD 1.8GHz 1799$
- iMac G5 20" SD 1.8GHz 2199$
- iPhoto Pictureservice Europe
In May:
- eMac G4Ultra (IBM) 1.4GHz Combo 899$
- eMac G4Ultra (IBM) 1.6GHz SD 1099$
- The new Cube G4Ultra (IBM) Combo 1.4GHz 899$
- The new Cube G4Ultra (IBM) SD 1.6GHz 1099$
- iBook G4Ultra 12" (IBM) Combo 1.6GHz 1099$
- iBook G4Ultra 14" (IBM) Combo 1.6GHz 1299$
It's the new IBM G4 PPC860, enhanced busprotokoll, enhanced memorybandwidth, 1MB L2C, 4MB L3C.
PPC75x = G3
PPC86x = G4
PPC97x = G5
In June:
- iPod 20GB 299$
- iPod 40GB 399$
- iPod 80GB 499$
In June at WWDC:
- Power Mac G6 (PC980) 3GHz 1999$
- Power Mac G6 (PC980) Dual 2.8GHz 2499$
- Power Mac G6 (PC980) Dual 3.2GHz 3499$
I was hoping you'd come up with some sort of a portable time machine that also does your laundry, the dishes and puts the garbage outside, but a G5 Cube
would be nice too of course , but I'm not holding my breath...
@Fat Freddy
Maybe that crackpipe wasn't such a good idea after all?
One more thing:
- The new Cube G4 (Motorola) Combo 1.0GHz 899$
- The new Cube G4 (Motorola) SD 1.25GHz 1099$
I mean a redux Cube with a Motorola G4 at 1.25GHz ????
Steve would be lynched right on stage....
Keynote 1.5 99$
- iWrite 1.0 99$
- iSound 1.0 99$
While I agree that these would be nice additions/updates to the iLife suite, don't you think the price tag would seem a little steep ?
I'm more inclined to go with what ThinkSecret posted about MWSF, music orientated and no CPU announcements
Originally posted by Mark- Card Carrying FanaticRealist
iPods 'own' marketplace for user/choosers, but new models needed for children and teenage markets, plus those who - strange as it might seem - don't need 2000 songs to go. Introduces myPod: new 1GB (250 songs) / 2GB (500 songs) models, controls on side edge, touch-resistant strip on side in place of scrollwheel; embedded Hitachi Microdrives.
Both models available in silver or black from Superbowl weekend: 1GB is $175, 2GB is $225.
Dunno...
iPod 01GB $175.00
iPod 02GB $225.00 (Double size for $75 more)
iPod 10GB $299.00 (5X size for $74 more)
iPod 20GB $399.00 (Double size for $100 more)
iPod 40GB $499.00 (Double size for $100 more)
The 2GB seems pretty far outta whack...
2GB for $100 and 4GB for $200 would seem to fit better... (cost of parts to build the devices not withstanding)
Then you'd have
iPod 02GB $99.00
iPod 04GB $199.00 (Double size for $100 more)
iPod 10GB $299.00 (Double+ size for $100 more)
iPod 20GB $399.00 (Double size for $100 more)
iPod 40GB $499.00 (Double size for $100 more)
Again... cost of parts (as far as we know) might not / would not allow for this... but forgoing cost this would seems to be more in line with their current price plan.
Dave
Originally posted by geekmeet
these threads are so sad and pathetic and the worst part is many of you take yourself WAY too seriously!
the worst part is the purpoted spec list that you guys put up all the time.
what a joke!
im sure steve jobs gets a kick out of reading them!
Let me try my hand at it.
We'll see:
-miniPods and iPods, in colored casings.
-new displays to go along with the PowerMacs
-updated iLife
What we won't see:
-New digital hub device
-iWrite or Document or whatever they call the Word app
-updated iBooks, iMacs or PowerBooks
-new iSight
Maybe:
-Updated PowerMacs
edit: -and eMacs
I'll have to go out on a limb and say...
3GHz G5's.
for the anniversary.
Originally posted by Dylsexic Manupilator
[B]@Fat Freddy
Maybe that crackpipe wasn't such a good idea after all?
Why? Do you remember MWSF'03 or WWDC'03
I mean a redux Cube with a Motorola G4 at 1.25GHz ????
Steve would be lynched right on stage....
At this pricepoint? No
While I agree that these would be nice additions/updates to the iLife suite, don't you think the price tag would seem a little steep ?
Hmm, ok.
I'm more inclined to go with what ThinkSecret posted about MWSF, music orientated and no CPU announcements
May be you are right, but it would be a fine thing nevertheless and don't forget the Forbes article
Originally posted by Fat Freddy
This things should come:
God, for a second there I could've sworn this was another Kormac posting...
"We wanted to keep milking the 1.6 and 1.8 Ghz G5 for a couple more months like we were used to doing with Motorola, but as of last week IBM is just refusing to make us any G5s below 2 Ghz! Something about great yields or something. . . . Well, we're really upset, so we're gonna keep Moto around for a year or two to slow things down while wean our design teams off taking 3 month long vacations after we update a product. In summary: Look forward to 6 Ghz G5 desktops and 1.3 Ghz G4 powerbooks in 2005!"
Just my vision
Originally posted by Dylsexic Manupilator
@ Mark- Card Carrying FanaticRealist
I was hoping you'd come up with some sort of a portable time machine that also does your laundry, ....
Yeah, did that - but when I took the clothes out it was all like tie-dyes and flares which isn't a good look for me
Originally posted by DaveGee
Dunno...
iPod 01GB $175.00
iPod 02GB $225.00 (Double size for $75 more)
iPod 10GB $299.00 (5X size for $74 more)
iPod 20GB $399.00 (Double size for $100 more)
iPod 40GB $499.00 (Double size for $100 more)
... <snip>
Again... cost of parts (as far as we know) might not / would not allow for this... but forgoing cost this would seems to be more in line with their current price plan.
Dave
Actually, it goes the other way:
40GB is 499
20GB (50% of the capacity of the 40) is 399 (80% of the cost of the 40)
10GB (50% of the capacity of the 30) is 299 (75% of the cost of the 30)
2GB (20% of the 10) could be 225 (75% of the 10)
1GB (50% of the 2) could be 175-180 (80% of the 2)
The only realistic component in town - at this time - is the Hitachi 2GB microdrive; Cornice only produce in 1.5GB and the 4GB microdrive is ridiculously expensive UNLESS Apple has managed to cut some amazing deal (around 30% of the standard 'street price').
Introducing at 225 is the way forward, if you want to have an upgrade path that ultimately builds a secondary product family - initially on Microdrive - that looks like 4GB/2GB/1GB for $225/$180/$125, but ultimately becomes 0.85"-based 4GB/3GB/1.5GB for the same price points in around two generations (or in time for Xmas 2005).
Apple needs to sell at 225 initially, because:
a) it has the premium product in the marketplace, and there is a whole 'perceived value' equation going on. My case: the iPod is more expensive than any of the competition, yet occupies 3 out 5 market leadership positions because the value and quality it represents - cost is not the driver here.
b) if it is "going small' for myPod, there will be product engineering and tooling costs that need to be recovered in the early-adopter phase.
c) The component costs - even at 2GB - will be a killer to Apple, unless it resorts to 'cheaper' concepts like Sony's version of a jog-wheel and really small LCD displays. Then you have to add in marketing costs, shipping, etc.
Seriously, I'd bet my remaining bottles of DeLoach Zinfandel - not easy to get hold of over here - that the market would bear $225 in the US (£199 here) and $180/£150 for the smaller model.