Why the "minipod" is not going to happen:

gcarswell

OK,



Here's what I think after reading all of the threads and rumors about the "minipod":



It's not going to happen. Bear with me here...



Here's why:



1. When the original ipod came out, Jobs said Apple looked at the marketplace of MP3 players and decided they could add significant value and differentiate themselves by going with a non-flash based, high quality, large capacity player. This they did, but introducing the type of low cost, flash-based (or small HD based) player that everyone is speculating about goes back directly on their original intention.



3. From purely a business standpoint, dumbing down your high margin, market defined product to a low margin, bargin bin electronics product makes no sense at all. Apple has clearly had no issues moving ipods at the current pricepoint this X-mas, and becoming ubiquitous has never been Apple's MO or desire.



3. All of this speculation started just about the time that people realized that they either couldn't afford a current ipod, or that no one in their family was going to spend that much on them for the holidays...So, why not start a "want list" that eventually turns in to a MWSF sure thing: a 2-4GB affordable ipod.



At the end of the day, the ipod will maintain the same bottom line as every other Apple product:



"let those who want it, pay for it." Everyone else can drown in their own drool.

paul

Quote:

Originally posted by gcarswell

Here's what I think after reading all of the threads and rumors about the "minipod":

that I should start another redundant thread about the same thing...





can we have some consolidation please?



post this in an existing thread...



I agree with you by the way...





EDIT: MODS, time for temporary insanity perhaps?

shiny

Quote:

Originally posted by gcarswell

OK,



Here's what I think after reading all of the threads and rumors about the "minipod":



It's not going to happen. Bear with me here...



Here's why:



1. When the original ipod came out, Jobs said Apple looked at the marketplace of MP3 players and decided they could add significant value and differentiate themselves by going with a non-flash based, high quality, large capacity player. This they did, but introducing the type of low cost, flash-based (or small HD based) player that everyone is speculating about goes back directly on their original intention.



3. From purely a business standpoint, dumbing down your high margin, market defined product to a low margin, bargin bin electronics product makes no sense at all. Apple has clearly had no issues moving ipods at the current pricepoint this X-mas, and becoming ubiquitous has never been Apple's MO or desire.



3. All of this speculation started just about the time that people realized that they either couldn't afford a current ipod, or that no one in their family was going to spend that much on them for the holidays...So, why not start a "want list" that eventually turns in to a MWSF sure thing: a 2-4GB affordable ipod.



At the end of the day, the ipod will maintain the same bottom line as every other Apple product:



"let those who want it, pay for it." Everyone else can drown in their own drool.

Your last point seems to result from backwards thinking. The people who started the rumor are not rumor messageboard lurkers. However, the message board people are the people who ran with the rumor, but only after it had been put out there. The rumor started with people who could probably afford the current iPod (Appleinsider and ThinkSecret website owners/administrators) Therefore, the idea that the rumor is a result of a "want list" brought on by the inability to afford the current offerings just does not hold water.

t'hain esh kelch

I for one dont believe in these mini iPod rumors.. But then again, Im always wrong when it comes to rumors..

vinney57

This is not the computer market, this is whole different ball of wax and Apple HAS to maintain a vice like grip. The strategic importance of the survival of iTMS cannot be overstated and it can only survive by dominance. It can only dominate by having product at every price point. Apple's previous MO with computers is irrelevant.

winston smith

Quote:

Originally posted by vinney57

This is not the computer market, this is whole different ball of wax and Apple HAS to maintain a vice like grip. The strategic importance of the survival of iTMS cannot be overstated and it can only survive by dominance. It can only dominate by having product at every price point. Apple's previous MO with computers is irrelevant.

I totally agree with this point.

Apple has diversified into the Music industry with iTMS and iPod and currently has their corner of the market by the balls.

This is Steve Jobs chance to dominate an industry having already failed in the mid 80's with the Mac.



He is taking his learnings from Apple, Pixar and NeXT and applying a hardware/software solution to an entertainment idustry whilst using some of the tactics used on him previously:

-Cover all the bases with the hardware

-Be first to market with the best solution

-Saturate hearts and minds with the above through marketing and promo links.



I suspect the fact that all of this will only benefit the core Apple business is a bonus not an original aim.

clive

Quote:

Originally posted by segovius

... at the existing price structure and the current line ups will take a cut of, say, 20% thus bringing the entry-level to the $150 region (as suggested).

Eh? The cheapest iPod is USD:299.00, even with a 20% discount that's USD:240.00 - nowhere near USD:150.00



I agree with the people that say Apple needs to be in the cheaper market bracket too, if they can get there. But I don't see it happening right now.

dylsexic manupilator

Allow me to fuel the fire somewhat more.



The article describes some promising developments in the HDD department. I'm sure you'll find it at least interesting..., especially the timing mentionned







( I also posted this in the minipod-poll thread but this seems too good to be true to let it slip through all this pre-MWSF madness )

rhumgod

Here are some other players and prices:



Rio Street Nitrus 1.5G/HDD = 219.99

Creative Nomad MuVo2 1.5G/HDD = 229.99

Creative Nomad MuVo2 XTrainer 1G/Flash = 499.99

Creative Nomad MuVo2 XTrainer 512Mb/Flash = 269.99

Creative Nomad MuVo2 4G/HDD = 299.99

Dell DJ 15G/HDD = 249.00

Dell DJ 20G/HDD = 329.00



Apple is sitting just above these products (HDD-based anyway). The flash models are quite a bit more money. I think they are ok right now. I wouldn't drop the price much, but I suppose they could to stay in the ballpark. But Apple simply offers more which I am willing to pay for. Always have with my Macs, same with iPods.

rhumgod

Quote:

Originally posted by Dylsexic Manupilator

I'm sure you'll find it at least interesting..., especially the timing mentionned

Did I miss something? They talked about volume production 6 months ago and that Samsung used it in a CES video camera in last year's CES. Anything I am missing that may have been pulled (doubt it since the date on the article was March, 2003).

rhumgod

By the way, the only large (2G) capacity compact flash cards I see off hand are Transcend's 2G 45X for $608.00 retail.

dylsexic manupilator

Quote:

Originally posted by Rhumgod

Did I miss something? They talked about volume production 6 months ago and that Samsung used it in a CES video camera in last year's CES. Anything I am missing that may have been pulled (doubt it since the date on the article was March, 2003).

Well, what I conclude form the article is that small HDD's have been around since at least a couple of months AND that their prices were expected to drop considerably( at least in March when it was written), i.e. below the $100 price point (OEM price of course)



The related links below the article (dated 10 March), especially the first one:



snippet

"In contrast, 1-inch HDDs with 4GB capacity are to appear later this year, so even if a 0.8-inch disk could be made, it would probably hold around 2 or 3GB. And that will be only 2- or 3-times the memory capacity of this year's latest Memory Stick or SD Card. If, as expected in 2005, HDDs lose the advantage of their most powerful asset up to now -- their ever-improving recording densities -- and semiconductor memory devices do go on improving, then in 2006 or thereabouts the semiconductor memory media will overtake HDD"



So Apple would not do too badly IF they were to go for HDD based minipods, well, at least till 2006...

michael wilkie

I think Apple fears that the iPod may go the way of the Macintosh, meaning cheaper, "lesser" players may overtake the market eventually despite the initial success of the iPod. The Mini iPod might be a way to circumvent this potential problem.



Also, the mini iPod may get people hooked on the iTunes Music Store, eventually requiring them to upgrade to a full-size iPod.



The current iPod is probably dangerously close to market saturation and the mini iPod will open up new markets.

gcarswell

I think that people are forgetting that Jobs stated the purpose of the ITMS was to sell ipods since they have no hope of turning a profit on music sales.



"the survival of iTMS" is only important insofar as it promtes the sales of high-margin playback products.

chris cuilla

Quote:

Originally posted by Michael Wilkie

I think Apple fears that the iPod may go the way of the Macintosh, meaning cheaper, "lesser" players may overtake the market eventually despite the initial success of the iPod. The Mini iPod might be a way to circumvent this potential problem.



Also, the mini iPod may get people hooked on the iTunes Music Store, eventually requiring them to upgrade to a full-size iPod.



The current iPod is probably dangerously close to market saturation and the mini iPod will open up new markets.

Bingo.

jubelum

I fully agree with Bro. Wilkie. As recently stated in a major national magazine... Apple has had one hell of a history of:



1. Throwing a party- (iPod, iTunes Store, the whole GUI, etc)

2. Having everyone come - (Microsoft, Dell, whoever)

3. Having the party get out of control - (Windows 1.0 license, cheap DTP home-user workstations, iTunes competitors)

4. Getting thrown out of their own party - (Win95=Mac87, the GUI, DTP, and .....?) I really wish the Karma Cops would show up.



"It's AAPL's party, and it can cry if it wants to."



The reason this happens is

A) Major Windows platform domination. But Apple is helping with iTunes and iPod for XP, and

Apple's price points are only sellable until someone takes their idea and makes it cheaper or more compatible.



The iPod, in its current form, is VERY competitive.



The 5% of the computer world that Apple controls is indeed the rudder...!8)

tompage

Quote:

Originally posted by gcarswell

I think that people are forgetting that Jobs stated the purpose of the ITMS was to sell ipods since they have no hope of turning a profit on music sales.



"the survival of iTMS" is only important insofar as it promtes the sales of high-margin playback products.

Until now, most buyers of MP3 players will have beeen buying their first player and/or will have a stock of unprotected MP3s acquired from ripping CDs or illegal file-sharing. These buyers can easily buy an iPod as they are not yet tied to a media format.



Now that online music sales are taking off, digital music portfolios will graduate away from unprotected MP3s to either WMA or AAC. Once a user has a significant collection of one or the other, he or she is very unlikely to buy an MP3 player that does not work with that format.



So whilst iTMS is not the profit-making part of Apple's business, it must make sure that iTMS has a large share of the online music market to ensure that all the buyers off that store are then tied to Apple products as that music will not work with a WMA player. ITMS will only get a large market share if it is compatible not only with a high-end quality player (the iPod) but also a low-end player for the masses. The miniPod.



Personally, I think it is quite sensible for Apple to bring out a cheaper player, but as always with Apple, I suspect that it will still not be as cheap as people are hoping for. People bandy around the $99 figure, but no way surely! I personally doubt there will be anything less than $199 (£149 UK).

monkeyastronaut

forget miniPods. Apple will announce that they have just signed QB 128GB iPod in a 7-year, 256 million deal, as reported by ESPN. :P

hobbes

2GB miniPod, $149. 4GB miniPod, $199. Range of colors.

sunrein

While I'm not entirely convinced that we'll see these new cheaper iPods, I don't see why the music players that Apple sells can't have a range of affordability similar to their computer lines. They have it in the desktop computer line (iMac, PowerMac) and in the laptop line (iBook, PowerBook).



Perhaps then they should continue the thought and have an iPod and a PowerPod respectively. That kind of consistency would certainly keep the product lines quite clear... well, except for not having an ePod and an xServePod. Hee hee.



***Hmm, an xServePod is an interesting thought though. Maybe the kind of device that would exist as part of a home digital hub. Not the right name obviously, but it'd be nice to see. In the meantime, this is my drool device for music in the digital hub. As good as it is, I'd like to see Apple do it better.***

@homenow

I see no problems with releasing a lower capacity, lower priced iPod. The two complaints I see most about the price are price, too expensive, and capacity, not enough as opposed to too little. There are people that will want to carry around 100 GB of music with them, there are people who will only want/need to carry around 1-2 GB with them. The iPod "lite" would do this well, without edging too much in on the traditional iPod space, because there are a lot of people that want that capacity. Also the iPod works as a FireWire drive, and there is the rumored home on the "iPod" feature that could be coming out which would make the larger capacity iPods and Macs more attractive.