A Blu-Ray recorder is going to be more expensive than a Blu-Ray player and a player will be expensive when they first come to market. That is if history is any indication. CD-R drives came out after CDs were mainstream, and cost a couple hundred for a burner.
Ah, yes but Sony has done things the wrong way around. BR-burners are currently the only type available to consumers (I think). I haven't seen anything that would allow Blu-Ray reading without also writing.
Thus the 'expensive' infrastructure is already in place (don't forget that HD-DVD has not been launched yet), so I would imagine that the PS3 would maybe come in two flavours, with a BR-ROM drive (console) and a BR-recorder (PVR/multimedia centre). Also, I would imagine that the PVR will not be cheap (don't forget there is a PS3 in there too) so will probably be around $1000 (early adopters tend to like paying a lot for the new tech )
I'm wondering how the industry is going to get an effective message across to the consumer when it comes time to adopt one of the new formats. There are complex issues being discussed herein - difficult for me to follow, and I'm not your average consumer. This technology war is terrifically more complex than Beta v. VHS, especially when ancillary concerns such as DRM are mixed in. The average consumer just jumped on the DVD bandwagon around four years ago and will not want to embark on the HD path any time soon. Heck, only a fraction of the population has HDTV, yet 2005 is days away.
The average consumer just jumped on the DVD bandwagon around four years ago and will not want to embark on the HD path any time soon. Heck, only a fraction of the population has HDTV, yet 2005 is days away.
I think you'll be surprised at how quickly HD enters the mainstream. You're right that there are a number of technical hurdles that manufacturers will need to cross in terms of backward compatibility for legacy DVDs, but soon enough the 720x480 format will go the way of the 100MB Zip disk.
Just think of the generations of portable storage media that we have already gone through as computer users during the last twenty years. Is it surprising that the original mainstream compressed digital format for video/film (i.e. the DVD) will soon be superceded by a more robust?and more visually tantalizing?medium? Hardly.
According to Macbidouille, JVC has created a 3-layer Blu-Ray/DVD combo disc that contains a single Blu-Ray layer (25GB) with the other two layers being used for a standard dual-layer DVD (8.5GB) so that movies can be distributed in both formats on one disc. They are now working on a 4-layer disc that will push the Blu-Ray side up to 50GB.
I don't know which ones you have looked at, but the ones I have been in are stunning. Even non-IMAX films (such as the 70 mm restored Lawrence of Arabia) are impressive.
I'm wondering how the industry is going to get an effective message across to the consumer when it comes time to adopt one of the new formats.
"Mine is better" "No, mine is better!" "Oh yeah? Well you look funny!" etc.
Quote:
There are complex issues being discussed herein - difficult for me to follow, and I'm not your average consumer. This technology war is terrifically more complex than Beta v. VHS, especially when ancillary concerns such as DRM are mixed in.
I don't think it's that complex. Both formats have the same resolution(s). Quality is probably the same. DRM is probably the same. Blu-ray movies might cost 50 cents more and have fancier (Java!) menus.
There was an interesting observation on one of the Fox Business shows about the "DVD Wars" (Time Warner v. Sony) that Sony would lose out again...as they always seem to.
This was a business comment, not a technical comment. In fact, the "like they always seem to" comment was followed by an "even though BetaMax was, arguably, the superior format.
Yea, I bought a BetaMax because it was the superior format which did not matter when it became roadkill. I am hard pressed to remember a format war that Sony has won. Maybe they would be better off joining the other group and having some of their interesting technology get incorporated in the final standard instead of becoming yet another bump in the road of technology.
Sony is still a part of the DVD Forum. You do realize too that it is not just Sony who is behind the Blu-Ray format don't you? Try Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, HP, Dell, TDK, and like 60 other companies who have everything to do with DVDs. Actually, these companies tried to have Blu-Ray become a standard through the forum, however, NEC and Toshiba as well as Intel, when the Blu-Ray companies were not present at a forum meeting, decied to change the way absentee votes were cast as it pertained to the successor of DVD, and then proceeded to vote in the NEC / Toshiba format as the next "standard." Funny, how "standards" come about in forums like the DVD Forum, heh?
So in response to the message above, given the backing by the numerous amount of companies as previously stated, I think this time around it won't be a matter of Sony "being a bump in the road of technology." Rather, I think they'll (Sony, Philips, Panasonic, HP, Dell, TDK, etc.) will make Blu-Ray the high definition standard as this was its purpose from its creation, whereas HD-DVD is a red-laser turned blue-laser compromise. A compromise that has everything to do with certain companies trying to save a buck rather than giving the consumer the best format available.
Sony is still a part of the DVD Forum. You do realize too that it is not just Sony who is behind the Blu-Ray format don't you? Try Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, HP, Dell, TDK, and like 60 other companies who have everything to do with DVDs. Actually, these companies tried to have Blu-Ray become a standard through the forum, however, NEC and Toshiba as well as Intel, when the Blu-Ray companies were not present at a forum meeting, decied to change the way absentee votes were cast as it pertained to the successor of DVD, and then proceeded to vote in the NEC / Toshiba format as the next "standard." Funny, how "standards" come about in forums like the DVD Forum, heh?
So in response to the message above, given the backing by the numerous amount of companies as previously stated, I think this time around it won't be a matter of Sony "being a bump in the road of technology." Rather, I think they'll (Sony, Philips, Panasonic, HP, Dell, TDK, etc.) will make Blu-Ray the high definition standard as this was its purpose from its creation, whereas HD-DVD is a red-laser turned blue-laser compromise. A compromise that has everything to do with certain companies trying to save a buck rather than giving the consumer the best format available.
Yes, everyone knows that Sony is not alone. The news item to which I was referring simply referred to it as the Sony standard. Big deal. The observation was that Sony has a singularly terrible record when it comes to format wars.
Since then there have been several other articles from different sources that are questioning Sony's chances of success for a variety of reasons.
The one thing that is certain is that a "format war" will ultimately delay the widespread adoption of any of them.
I don't think Apple has confirmed anything about Blu-Ray. Some are pointing to Sony employee during the keynote as affirmation but reality is the new Sony HDV cam is the hottest thing out right now under $5k in the video world. If you're going to show off your HDV support that's the camera to do so. I think Apple will sit back and look at how HD-DVD and Blu Ray evolve and then make a decision. Since Apple is really keen on promoting h.264 they have this luxury.
I don't think Apple has confirmed anything about Blu-Ray. Some are pointing to Sony employee during the keynote as affirmation but reality is the new Sony HDV cam is the hottest thing out right now under $5k in the video world. If you're going to show off your HDV support that's the camera to do so. I think Apple will sit back and look at how HD-DVD and Blu Ray evolve and then make a decision. Since Apple is really keen on promoting h.264 they have this luxury.
Actually, Steve completely ducked this question. What he said is that QT 7 supports H.264 and so whether Blu-Ray or HDDVD "wins" we're ready. (We win.)
On the other hand he did say that "we work closely with Sony" so I would not be surprised if Apple went for Blu-Ray...if the price comes down *A LOT*. The prices being bantered about for Blu-Ray at the present time just won't fly. There is no way that a PS3 could be competitively priced with an XBox unless the Blu-Ray prices are brought down.
Have you noticed the TDK patents for their "Armor" finish to the media for either Blu-Ray or HDDVD? It looks as though it will make for sufficiently durable media that no cassette will be required to protect it from physical damage which would be a problem because of the very small track sizes on either standard.
H.264 is what is really important. It makes so many other things feasible. Did you notice the (good) quality of the four way video conference using H.264?
Holy crap, just finished watching the MacWorld webcast and I do have to say it looks mighty promising that Apple will be going the way of Blu-Ray. Anyone catch the statement Steve made about looking intently to buning HD video to Blu-Ray disks? I know I did!! And since we didn't see any new PowerMac models this go around, it makes me wonder if Apple will go ahead and put Blu-Ray players in the next PowerMac revisions? Hmmmm? Remember you heard it hear first! This might be especially feasible considering HP too is looking to put Blu-Ray players in upcoming PCs in 2005, and well lets just say we can't have regular PCs outdoing the ol Macintosh!
So, all in all, I do think the Expo gave good credence that Apple will be supporting Blu-Ray.
Maybe they would be better off joining the other group and having some of their interesting technology get incorporated in the final standard instead of becoming yet another bump in the road of technology.
Except Sony's "interesting technology" happens to be higher capacity discs which the DVD Forum has no interest in using. Sony already tried the olive branch approach and it was rejected. By the way, DVD+R/RW isn't approved by the DVD Forum either, in fact, they discourage the use of it.
There was an interesting observation on one of the Fox Business shows about the "DVD Wars" (Time Warner v. Sony) that Sony would lose out again...as they always seem to.
Sony lost out in the Beta vs VHS format war, oh, twenty years ago? This is like looking at Apple's announcements at Macworld the other day and claiming they are doomed to failure because of the Newton.
Ah, didn't see this comment was from Fox News, the National Enquirer of news organizations or is that CBS? Hmmm...
Except Sony's "interesting technology" happens to be higher capacity discs which the DVD Forum has no interest in using. Sony already tried the olive branch approach and it was rejected.
Didn't they (and a few other members of the DVD forum) "boycot" the voting since they already new it was too late for their format? How is that "olive branch"?
Didn't they (and a few other members of the DVD forum) "boycot" the voting since they already new it was too late for their format? How is that "olive branch"?
You have to keep in mind that Sony's objectives are different that those of many other members of the DVD forum. As you may remember, Sony has exited the DVD manufacturing sector because it has become "comoditized". They are wanting to avoid that experience with "the next thing" which means keeping the price of things up...including licensing fees if their baby should be adopted. They are, in effect, wanting to keep it as a proprietary standard. Under those circumstances you can expect the rest of the group to look elsewhere which is too bad as Blu-Ray shows promise and the squable will not soon be resolved which will almost certainly delay adoption of whatever standard eventually prevails.
We have seen it before. "Will that be BetaMax or VHS?"
Comments
Originally posted by kupan787
A Blu-Ray recorder is going to be more expensive than a Blu-Ray player and a player will be expensive when they first come to market. That is if history is any indication. CD-R drives came out after CDs were mainstream, and cost a couple hundred for a burner.
Ah, yes but Sony has done things the wrong way around. BR-burners are currently the only type available to consumers (I think). I haven't seen anything that would allow Blu-Ray reading without also writing.
Thus the 'expensive' infrastructure is already in place (don't forget that HD-DVD has not been launched yet), so I would imagine that the PS3 would maybe come in two flavours, with a BR-ROM drive (console) and a BR-recorder (PVR/multimedia centre). Also, I would imagine that the PVR will not be cheap (don't forget there is a PS3 in there too) so will probably be around $1000 (early adopters tend to like paying a lot for the new tech
The average consumer just jumped on the DVD bandwagon around four years ago and will not want to embark on the HD path any time soon. Heck, only a fraction of the population has HDTV, yet 2005 is days away.
I think you'll be surprised at how quickly HD enters the mainstream. You're right that there are a number of technical hurdles that manufacturers will need to cross in terms of backward compatibility for legacy DVDs, but soon enough the 720x480 format will go the way of the 100MB Zip disk.
Just think of the generations of portable storage media that we have already gone through as computer users during the last twenty years. Is it surprising that the original mainstream compressed digital format for video/film (i.e. the DVD) will soon be superceded by a more robust?and more visually tantalizing?medium? Hardly.
I don't know which ones you have looked at, but the ones I have been in are stunning. Even non-IMAX films (such as the 70 mm restored Lawrence of Arabia) are impressive.
Originally posted by Big Mac
I'm wondering how the industry is going to get an effective message across to the consumer when it comes time to adopt one of the new formats.
"Mine is better" "No, mine is better!" "Oh yeah? Well you look funny!" etc.
There are complex issues being discussed herein - difficult for me to follow, and I'm not your average consumer. This technology war is terrifically more complex than Beta v. VHS, especially when ancillary concerns such as DRM are mixed in.
I don't think it's that complex. Both formats have the same resolution(s). Quality is probably the same. DRM is probably the same. Blu-ray movies might cost 50 cents more and have fancier (Java!) menus.
This was a business comment, not a technical comment. In fact, the "like they always seem to" comment was followed by an "even though BetaMax was, arguably, the superior format.
Yea, I bought a BetaMax because it was the superior format which did not matter when it became roadkill. I am hard pressed to remember a format war that Sony has won. Maybe they would be better off joining the other group and having some of their interesting technology get incorporated in the final standard instead of becoming yet another bump in the road of technology.
Sony is still a part of the DVD Forum. You do realize too that it is not just Sony who is behind the Blu-Ray format don't you? Try Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, HP, Dell, TDK, and like 60 other companies who have everything to do with DVDs. Actually, these companies tried to have Blu-Ray become a standard through the forum, however, NEC and Toshiba as well as Intel, when the Blu-Ray companies were not present at a forum meeting, decied to change the way absentee votes were cast as it pertained to the successor of DVD, and then proceeded to vote in the NEC / Toshiba format as the next "standard." Funny, how "standards" come about in forums like the DVD Forum, heh?
So in response to the message above, given the backing by the numerous amount of companies as previously stated, I think this time around it won't be a matter of Sony "being a bump in the road of technology." Rather, I think they'll (Sony, Philips, Panasonic, HP, Dell, TDK, etc.) will make Blu-Ray the high definition standard as this was its purpose from its creation, whereas HD-DVD is a red-laser turned blue-laser compromise. A compromise that has everything to do with certain companies trying to save a buck rather than giving the consumer the best format available.
Originally posted by marzetta7
Actually,
Sony is still a part of the DVD Forum. You do realize too that it is not just Sony who is behind the Blu-Ray format don't you? Try Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, HP, Dell, TDK, and like 60 other companies who have everything to do with DVDs. Actually, these companies tried to have Blu-Ray become a standard through the forum, however, NEC and Toshiba as well as Intel, when the Blu-Ray companies were not present at a forum meeting, decied to change the way absentee votes were cast as it pertained to the successor of DVD, and then proceeded to vote in the NEC / Toshiba format as the next "standard." Funny, how "standards" come about in forums like the DVD Forum, heh?
So in response to the message above, given the backing by the numerous amount of companies as previously stated, I think this time around it won't be a matter of Sony "being a bump in the road of technology." Rather, I think they'll (Sony, Philips, Panasonic, HP, Dell, TDK, etc.) will make Blu-Ray the high definition standard as this was its purpose from its creation, whereas HD-DVD is a red-laser turned blue-laser compromise. A compromise that has everything to do with certain companies trying to save a buck rather than giving the consumer the best format available.
Yes, everyone knows that Sony is not alone. The news item to which I was referring simply referred to it as the Sony standard. Big deal. The observation was that Sony has a singularly terrible record when it comes to format wars.
Since then there have been several other articles from different sources that are questioning Sony's chances of success for a variety of reasons.
The one thing that is certain is that a "format war" will ultimately delay the widespread adoption of any of them.
I predict iDVD HD at MWSF 2006.
Originally posted by wmf
CONFIRMED
I predict iDVD HD at MWSF 2006.
I don't think Apple has confirmed anything about Blu-Ray. Some are pointing to Sony employee during the keynote as affirmation but reality is the new Sony HDV cam is the hottest thing out right now under $5k in the video world. If you're going to show off your HDV support that's the camera to do so. I think Apple will sit back and look at how HD-DVD and Blu Ray evolve and then make a decision. Since Apple is really keen on promoting h.264 they have this luxury.
Originally posted by hmurchison
I don't think Apple has confirmed anything about Blu-Ray. Some are pointing to Sony employee during the keynote as affirmation but reality is the new Sony HDV cam is the hottest thing out right now under $5k in the video world. If you're going to show off your HDV support that's the camera to do so. I think Apple will sit back and look at how HD-DVD and Blu Ray evolve and then make a decision. Since Apple is really keen on promoting h.264 they have this luxury.
Actually, Steve completely ducked this question. What he said is that QT 7 supports H.264 and so whether Blu-Ray or HDDVD "wins" we're ready. (We win.)
On the other hand he did say that "we work closely with Sony" so I would not be surprised if Apple went for Blu-Ray...if the price comes down *A LOT*. The prices being bantered about for Blu-Ray at the present time just won't fly. There is no way that a PS3 could be competitively priced with an XBox unless the Blu-Ray prices are brought down.
Have you noticed the TDK patents for their "Armor" finish to the media for either Blu-Ray or HDDVD? It looks as though it will make for sufficiently durable media that no cassette will be required to protect it from physical damage which would be a problem because of the very small track sizes on either standard.
H.264 is what is really important. It makes so many other things feasible. Did you notice the (good) quality of the four way video conference using H.264?
8)
So, all in all, I do think the Expo gave good credence that Apple will be supporting Blu-Ray.
Introducing the new 3.0GHz PowerMac G5. Now with Blue-Ray Hyperdrive.
Originally posted by RBR
Maybe they would be better off joining the other group and having some of their interesting technology get incorporated in the final standard instead of becoming yet another bump in the road of technology.
Except Sony's "interesting technology" happens to be higher capacity discs which the DVD Forum has no interest in using. Sony already tried the olive branch approach and it was rejected. By the way, DVD+R/RW isn't approved by the DVD Forum either, in fact, they discourage the use of it.
Originally posted by RBR
There was an interesting observation on one of the Fox Business shows about the "DVD Wars" (Time Warner v. Sony) that Sony would lose out again...as they always seem to.
Sony lost out in the Beta vs VHS format war, oh, twenty years ago? This is like looking at Apple's announcements at Macworld the other day and claiming they are doomed to failure because of the Newton.
Ah, didn't see this comment was from Fox News, the National Enquirer of news organizations or is that CBS? Hmmm...
Originally posted by 1984
Except Sony's "interesting technology" happens to be higher capacity discs which the DVD Forum has no interest in using. Sony already tried the olive branch approach and it was rejected.
Didn't they (and a few other members of the DVD forum) "boycot" the voting since they already new it was too late for their format? How is that "olive branch"?
Originally posted by kupan787
Didn't they (and a few other members of the DVD forum) "boycot" the voting since they already new it was too late for their format? How is that "olive branch"?
You have to keep in mind that Sony's objectives are different that those of many other members of the DVD forum. As you may remember, Sony has exited the DVD manufacturing sector because it has become "comoditized". They are wanting to avoid that experience with "the next thing" which means keeping the price of things up...including licensing fees if their baby should be adopted. They are, in effect, wanting to keep it as a proprietary standard. Under those circumstances you can expect the rest of the group to look elsewhere which is too bad as Blu-Ray shows promise and the squable will not soon be resolved which will almost certainly delay adoption of whatever standard eventually prevails.
We have seen it before. "Will that be BetaMax or VHS?"