I don't think they would lie that outright anyway. I understand that a lot of times they do try to word things in certain ways so it seems like something is implied. But they don't just go Oh yeah this is all realtime, when in fact it is not.
As e16 pointed out, most of those videos didn't look insanely better than the UT2007 video, which was proved to be realtime (it wasn't actually me up there controling it, but I belive it.)
Now that one day of E3 2005 has passed, which piece of hardware are you dying to go out and get?
Xbox 360 \t\t15849 (29%)
PlayStation 3 \t\t24110 (45%)
Nintendo Revolution \t8758 (16%)
Nuby Tech Chainsaw \t208 (0%)
Physics Processor \t503 (0%)
Game Boy micro \t\t394 (0%)
The machines are nice, but I'm only in it for the games \t\t3734 (6%)
This seams like a realistic simulation of what the real market share will be (except that Nintendo, because they showed so little, is artificially low). I think that it will be Sony 50%, Microsoft 25%, Nintendo 25%.
If the 360 is not backwards compatible, drop them down to 15% instead of 25%.
Like a couple other people upthread I'm looking forward to the Revolution the most, mostly because their track record on interesting games is a fair sight better then anybody else.
As for pricing the Xbox 360 and PS3 are probably going to cost the same just because neither can afford to not match the others price simply to catch the base consumer looking solely at price. Furthermore Microsoft probably wants to lose less money on the console this time around and Sony might well be willing to lose more to keep market share and more importantly heavily leverage Blu-Ray. Nintendo I can see undercutting them by 50 dollars or so like they have this generation.
On the other hand that Blu-Ray player has got to cost, and Sony as a company isn't doing terribly well these days so they might be forced to accept 399 (all dollars US stateside launch) while the Xbox runs around 299-349 and the Revolution 50 below that.
Graphics wise they'll all probably look similar for a year or two. The Xbox's lead time compensating for the PS3's better hardware and the Revolution's easier development environment compensating for weaker hardware. After two to three years they'll probably shake down (graphics wise):
PS3
Xbox 360
Revolution
given the exactly same budget, development time, and developer quality/experience. Change a variable and I'm sure the graphics change as well. Overall they'll probably be pretty similar, just like this generation. Roughly, I'd say replace the PS2 with Revolution, Gamecube with Xbox 360, and Xbox with PS3 would be my guess.
Microsoft is waffling on the backwards compatibility bit. They've gone over the course of a week from we're not sure yet, to best selling games, to all games. Now I do think they'll have backward compatibility, but it's at least somewhat still up in the air.
The PS3 controller is very much a concept controller. Especially after the negative reaction to it.
Blue Ray doesn't have to cost. If anything it's the licensing or purchase of physical hardware that drives initial cost. Easier to buy license from Sony than roll your own. Sony owns their own, shouldn't cost them a thing.
As for cost of players in general -- the key to winning this format war is to have affordable players out there faster (and with more film studio support) than the other guys. Blue Ray players have to get real cheap, real fast. The desire of a few high-end A/V purveyors to sell obscenely priced disc players to people that have more dollars than sense means absolutely nothing. Just look at DVD players, how many people have a Meridian DVD player vs any sub $150 offering from a major electronic manufacturer?
And when did DVD players take off? When they started selling at the sub $300 level. Add up ALL the players that were sold before that, and it is a drop in the bucket. Manufacturers that sell players exclusively at or over $1000 are irrelevant. So are specific models in that range that come from manufacturers who would sell lower cost units.
Sony can win the BR/DVD-HD war overnight if they price the PS3 right. But that means no more than 399 outside of Japan, and only in year one, has to drop fast afetr that. In Japan, it's a different game -- those consumers will probably pay to play -- Sony is nearly a religion in Japan.
Why would any other electronics manufacturer want to support blu-ray if Sony is going to be able to sell a game machine with blu-ray for less then they can sell a blu-ray player all by itself?
Electronic companies other then sony will only make blu-ray players if they can make a profit on them and the PS3 ironically might sell great but at the cost of alienating other electronic manufacturers who would have supported the format.
The reason the PS2 with its DVD was no big deal because the DVD format was finalized years before the Ps2's release and most electronics manufacters already had DVD players priced equal and below the PS2 original $300 price tag.
Why would any other electronics manufacturer want to support blu-ray if Sony is going to be able to sell a game machine with blu-ray for less then they can sell a blu-ray player all by itself?
Electronic companies other then sony will only make blu-ray players if they can make a profit on them and the PS3 ironically might sell great but at the cost of alienating other electronic manufacturers who would have supported the format.
The reason the PS2 with its DVD was no big deal because the DVD format was finalized years before the Ps2's release and most electronics manufacters already had DVD players priced equal and below the PS2 original $300 price tag.
Whoever officially made the first DVD player, the fact is that the PS2 was a major contributor to the quick adoption of the format. It would would have happened without the PS2, just not as quickly. Sony has a large part in both the consumer electronics and film production industry, so unless someone quickly gets something else out first, Bluray will be out and "the thing" when, if not before, the PS3 is on shelves.
Why would any other electronics manufacturer want to support blu-ray if Sony is going to be able to sell a game machine with blu-ray for less then they can sell a blu-ray player all by itself?
Electronic companies other then sony will only make blu-ray players if they can make a profit on them and the PS3 ironically might sell great but at the cost of alienating other electronic manufacturers who would have supported the format.
The reason the PS2 with its DVD was no big deal because the DVD format was finalized years before the Ps2's release and most electronics manufacters already had DVD players priced equal and below the PS2 original $300 price tag.
When PS2 came out, it cost the same as an average player. As I wrote, neither high-end players, nor purveyors of high end players mean a damn thing to the format and don't need to be considered at all. Average consumers WILL NOT pay $600+ for a new fangled DVD player, let alone $1000. A few odd boys with too much money, might, the rest of the world will wait untill it costs about $300 or so. Consumers have learned that this stuff is disposable and won't pay more for it.
As for making a profit. The same way you can build a DVD for $5-10 worth of parts and labour in Malasia, China, Taiwan, etc etc, and sell it at Walmart for $59, you can build a Blueray Disc player. Not quite as cheap, but plenty cheap to make money, even on bargain priced units.
If you're talking about milking early adopters, again, that doesn't really matter for the health of the format, actually, it's something that could hurt the format. It's the software support that will make or break BR-Disc. If the units are cheap, people will buy them. If people buy the units, they will have software support. If they have software support, people will buy them. If the players are cheap, people will buy them. High-end sales simply don't matter, and there's no need to front load them on early adopters. Those idiots will pay too much even after reasonably priced product comes to market -- just tell them the more expensive unit will help them get laid, and they'll buy it.
the ps3 will sell on the strength of the previous 2 generations alone. after looking at the specs of all the consoles again without the covering of marketing bile that they all use, all i see is two VERY close machines in the xbox360 and ps3. the nintendo is still on the drawing board. "here's an empty box that'll roughly look like what we want the revolution to look like. as for the controller..."
The ps3 looks HUGE! remember sony saying how the xbox was too big for asian hands? now the roles have almost completely reversed.
In my opinion the micro$oft console will have much more market share than everyone on this board seems to think. they have a total product - a good looking, stylish console; good release games and a working mature on-line service in xbox live. sony has a console that looks like an oversized george forman grill with a hideous controller; good release games and NO online service. nothing.
That is not a complete product. that is short-changing the consumer. I'm not going to wait an extra year for sony to release the ps3 in europe (we STILL don't have the psp) and a further 2 years for them to come up with some sub-standard online service when i can get 3 good gaming years with the xbox360. damn micro$oft! tempting me with their evil wares!
Blu-ray will be an early adopter technology regardless if we want to believe it or not. Alot of people unfortunately think their current DVD's are HD and wont be rushing out and get a blu-ray player for $500 anytime soon and spend $30 per movie.
The difference is that more people are buying DVD's while most people rented VHS's in the 1980-1990's. Since more people are purchasing DVD's they wont be willing to re-buy all those same titles again in HD-DVD/Blu-ray. The lack of a large movie selection is a major factor which will keep blu-ray in the hands of early adopters who want the newest toy since the lack of HD movies and higher prices will prevent it from replacing DVD for many years if ever.
While I think Blu-ray is a great technology that will have a very strong niche, I think HiDef On-demand programing through cable and satellite companies in conjunction with Tivo's/DVR's is the next wave that will leapfrog HD-DVD/Blu-ray. People will purchase blu-ray recorders to make permanent copies of movies stored on their DVR's but Blu-ray or hd-dvd will never have the mass popularity as current DVD's because of strong competition from low priced $10 a month HD-DVR services provided by local cable satellite companies.
The Xbox 360 demos at E3 are all running realtime on real hardware, although that hardware happens to be 2.5ghz Power Mac G5s with X800s inside them. 1/3 of the power of the final system.
So you're saying that a sub-$500 machine is going to be the power of 6 X800's and 12 2.5ghz 970's?
The Killzone 2 footage was rendered by two FMV houses in the UK.
If you expect in game footage to look like that, you're deluding yourself I'm afraid. Remember Sony's claims that PS2 would be able to 'render Toy Story in realtime'. We all know how weak the hardware turned out to be.
This is FUD. Sony quite explicitly stated when asked that it was real time rendering for Killzone 2.
Edit: The exact quote, "Yes, it is real time". Not sure they could be anymore clear. Expect to see that quality.
Just found this thread in Beyond 3d, wich talks about thew Heavenly sword demo, link . Turns out that everything except the initial footage of the girls face is realtime gameplay footage.
Quote:
The trailer was made by selecting a bunch of in-game moves/cool things, Then those frames making up those bits were output at 1080p from the engine. These are then all stuck together in a editing and post-processing package to look like a movie trailer.
Comments
As e16 pointed out, most of those videos didn't look insanely better than the UT2007 video, which was proved to be realtime (it wasn't actually me up there controling it, but I belive it.)
Now that one day of E3 2005 has passed, which piece of hardware are you dying to go out and get?
Xbox 360 \t\t15849 (29%)
PlayStation 3 \t\t24110 (45%)
Nintendo Revolution \t8758 (16%)
Nuby Tech Chainsaw \t208 (0%)
Physics Processor \t503 (0%)
Game Boy micro \t\t394 (0%)
The machines are nice, but I'm only in it for the games \t\t3734 (6%)
This seams like a realistic simulation of what the real market share will be (except that Nintendo, because they showed so little, is artificially low). I think that it will be Sony 50%, Microsoft 25%, Nintendo 25%.
If the 360 is not backwards compatible, drop them down to 15% instead of 25%.
And the X360 is compatable with the XBox games.
As for pricing the Xbox 360 and PS3 are probably going to cost the same just because neither can afford to not match the others price simply to catch the base consumer looking solely at price. Furthermore Microsoft probably wants to lose less money on the console this time around and Sony might well be willing to lose more to keep market share and more importantly heavily leverage Blu-Ray. Nintendo I can see undercutting them by 50 dollars or so like they have this generation.
On the other hand that Blu-Ray player has got to cost, and Sony as a company isn't doing terribly well these days so they might be forced to accept 399 (all dollars US stateside launch) while the Xbox runs around 299-349 and the Revolution 50 below that.
Graphics wise they'll all probably look similar for a year or two. The Xbox's lead time compensating for the PS3's better hardware and the Revolution's easier development environment compensating for weaker hardware. After two to three years they'll probably shake down (graphics wise):
PS3
Xbox 360
Revolution
given the exactly same budget, development time, and developer quality/experience. Change a variable and I'm sure the graphics change as well. Overall they'll probably be pretty similar, just like this generation. Roughly, I'd say replace the PS2 with Revolution, Gamecube with Xbox 360, and Xbox with PS3 would be my guess.
Microsoft is waffling on the backwards compatibility bit. They've gone over the course of a week from we're not sure yet, to best selling games, to all games. Now I do think they'll have backward compatibility, but it's at least somewhat still up in the air.
The PS3 controller is very much a concept controller. Especially after the negative reaction to it.
As for cost of players in general -- the key to winning this format war is to have affordable players out there faster (and with more film studio support) than the other guys. Blue Ray players have to get real cheap, real fast. The desire of a few high-end A/V purveyors to sell obscenely priced disc players to people that have more dollars than sense means absolutely nothing. Just look at DVD players, how many people have a Meridian DVD player vs any sub $150 offering from a major electronic manufacturer?
And when did DVD players take off? When they started selling at the sub $300 level. Add up ALL the players that were sold before that, and it is a drop in the bucket. Manufacturers that sell players exclusively at or over $1000 are irrelevant. So are specific models in that range that come from manufacturers who would sell lower cost units.
Originally posted by WhiteRabbit
And the X360 is compatable with the XBox games.
not entirely
Quote:
Sony can win the BR/DVD-HD war overnight if they price the PS3 right. But that means no more than 399 outside of Japan, and only in year one, has to drop fast afetr that. In Japan, it's a different game -- those consumers will probably pay to play -- Sony is nearly a religion in Japan.
Why would any other electronics manufacturer want to support blu-ray if Sony is going to be able to sell a game machine with blu-ray for less then they can sell a blu-ray player all by itself?
Electronic companies other then sony will only make blu-ray players if they can make a profit on them and the PS3 ironically might sell great but at the cost of alienating other electronic manufacturers who would have supported the format.
The reason the PS2 with its DVD was no big deal because the DVD format was finalized years before the Ps2's release and most electronics manufacters already had DVD players priced equal and below the PS2 original $300 price tag.
23" Apple Display or 30" Apple Display to the Playstation3?
Mac people, our gaming needs are f8cking sorted...
Work, work work, then, chill out time..!! Game On!
Flick over to the PS3 running 1080p on the 23" or 30" cinema display. f8cking sweet.
23" cinema display supports full 1920x1080p
reality checks:
1. response time of 16ms fast enough?
2. assuming DVI-out is primary HDTV connection for this idea to work...
3. get a decent DVI switcher to switch between Mac and PS3 source video
Originally posted by johnsocal
Why would any other electronics manufacturer want to support blu-ray if Sony is going to be able to sell a game machine with blu-ray for less then they can sell a blu-ray player all by itself?
Electronic companies other then sony will only make blu-ray players if they can make a profit on them and the PS3 ironically might sell great but at the cost of alienating other electronic manufacturers who would have supported the format.
The reason the PS2 with its DVD was no big deal because the DVD format was finalized years before the Ps2's release and most electronics manufacters already had DVD players priced equal and below the PS2 original $300 price tag.
Whoever officially made the first DVD player, the fact is that the PS2 was a major contributor to the quick adoption of the format. It would would have happened without the PS2, just not as quickly. Sony has a large part in both the consumer electronics and film production industry, so unless someone quickly gets something else out first, Bluray will be out and "the thing" when, if not before, the PS3 is on shelves.
Originally posted by johnsocal
Why would any other electronics manufacturer want to support blu-ray if Sony is going to be able to sell a game machine with blu-ray for less then they can sell a blu-ray player all by itself?
Electronic companies other then sony will only make blu-ray players if they can make a profit on them and the PS3 ironically might sell great but at the cost of alienating other electronic manufacturers who would have supported the format.
The reason the PS2 with its DVD was no big deal because the DVD format was finalized years before the Ps2's release and most electronics manufacters already had DVD players priced equal and below the PS2 original $300 price tag.
When PS2 came out, it cost the same as an average player. As I wrote, neither high-end players, nor purveyors of high end players mean a damn thing to the format and don't need to be considered at all. Average consumers WILL NOT pay $600+ for a new fangled DVD player, let alone $1000. A few odd boys with too much money, might, the rest of the world will wait untill it costs about $300 or so. Consumers have learned that this stuff is disposable and won't pay more for it.
As for making a profit. The same way you can build a DVD for $5-10 worth of parts and labour in Malasia, China, Taiwan, etc etc, and sell it at Walmart for $59, you can build a Blueray Disc player. Not quite as cheap, but plenty cheap to make money, even on bargain priced units.
If you're talking about milking early adopters, again, that doesn't really matter for the health of the format, actually, it's something that could hurt the format. It's the software support that will make or break BR-Disc. If the units are cheap, people will buy them. If people buy the units, they will have software support. If they have software support, people will buy them. If the players are cheap, people will buy them. High-end sales simply don't matter, and there's no need to front load them on early adopters. Those idiots will pay too much even after reasonably priced product comes to market -- just tell them the more expensive unit will help them get laid, and they'll buy it.
The ps3 looks HUGE! remember sony saying how the xbox was too big for asian hands? now the roles have almost completely reversed.
In my opinion the micro$oft console will have much more market share than everyone on this board seems to think. they have a total product - a good looking, stylish console; good release games and a working mature on-line service in xbox live. sony has a console that looks like an oversized george forman grill with a hideous controller; good release games and NO online service. nothing.
That is not a complete product. that is short-changing the consumer. I'm not going to wait an extra year for sony to release the ps3 in europe (we STILL don't have the psp) and a further 2 years for them to come up with some sub-standard online service when i can get 3 good gaming years with the xbox360. damn micro$oft! tempting me with their evil wares!
The difference is that more people are buying DVD's while most people rented VHS's in the 1980-1990's. Since more people are purchasing DVD's they wont be willing to re-buy all those same titles again in HD-DVD/Blu-ray. The lack of a large movie selection is a major factor which will keep blu-ray in the hands of early adopters who want the newest toy since the lack of HD movies and higher prices will prevent it from replacing DVD for many years if ever.
While I think Blu-ray is a great technology that will have a very strong niche, I think HiDef On-demand programing through cable and satellite companies in conjunction with Tivo's/DVR's is the next wave that will leapfrog HD-DVD/Blu-ray. People will purchase blu-ray recorders to make permanent copies of movies stored on their DVR's but Blu-ray or hd-dvd will never have the mass popularity as current DVD's because of strong competition from low priced $10 a month HD-DVR services provided by local cable satellite companies.
Originally posted by kotatsu
The Xbox 360 demos at E3 are all running realtime on real hardware, although that hardware happens to be 2.5ghz Power Mac G5s with X800s inside them. 1/3 of the power of the final system.
So you're saying that a sub-$500 machine is going to be the power of 6 X800's and 12 2.5ghz 970's?
Originally posted by kotatsu
The Killzone 2 footage was rendered by two FMV houses in the UK.
If you expect in game footage to look like that, you're deluding yourself I'm afraid. Remember Sony's claims that PS2 would be able to 'render Toy Story in realtime'. We all know how weak the hardware turned out to be.
This is FUD. Sony quite explicitly stated when asked that it was real time rendering for Killzone 2.
Edit: The exact quote, "Yes, it is real time". Not sure they could be anymore clear. Expect to see that quality.
to have to create some new games instead of just sequels. I think that is the
only way that they will be able to compete with sony & microsoft. Nintendo
stated that demos & statistics of the revolution are irrelevant, it's the games
that are important. If they don't come out with some new & inventive games
to stand out against the other systems then I think Nintendo will end up
digging their own grave.
And don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of Nintendo. Zelda, Resident Evil 4,
Rogue Squadron are favorites but do we really need ddr mario, mario
tennis, mario baseball, blah blah blah.
The trailer was made by selecting a bunch of in-game moves/cool things, Then those frames making up those bits were output at 1080p from the engine. These are then all stuck together in a editing and post-processing package to look like a movie trailer.
Neat.