We'll see, I don't doubt the influence that PS3 will have but I doubt that it'll cause a shit in power to Blu-Ray. HDTV isn't required for PS3 thus it'll still be hooked to plenty of Std Def TVs.
I looke for HD-DVD to get MS Media Center support soon with Microsoft's partnership. War is inevitable...moving to Defcon 2
As an aside the big loser though in all of this is the Xbox 360 games as its games get larger they are going to whack straight into the constraints of DL DVDs or rely on compression. Sony's partners really have a lot of disc space to play with.
This is the weird thing with all the 'we might release a version of Xbox 360 with HD-DVD support later' indications from M$. How on earth will they ensure compatability with the existing base if games start shipping on HD-DVD (something Sony doesn't have to worry about from the start)?
Will it be another example of the Megadrive/Genesis CD add-on experience?
(Imagine all the new FF FMV sequences in HD though...)
And hmurchison, I don't see that the HDTV issue is that much of an issue. It is a chicken and egg scenario. The HDTVs with HDMI are now becoming reasonably affordable, so it is not inconceivable that people do upgrade the TV over the life-span of the PS3 console. It is more of a subtle market penetration (but nevertheless not trivial). I don't expect anyone to specifically buy PS3 to play HD movies from the get-go (unlike they did with the PS2 and DVDs), but it has the capability. I don't think Sony should be underestimated here.
This is the weird thing with all the 'we might release a version of Xbox 360 with HD-DVD support later' indications from M$. How on earth will they ensure compatability with the existing base if games start shipping on HD-DVD (something Sony doesn't have to worry about from the start)?
I doubt game companies will be allowed to switch media. It'd just destroy Microsoft's reputation with the market and would be seen as gouging the market. Why buy Microsoft when they build in planned obsolescence early? No they'll be stuck with DL games for the life time and in 5 years I'd expect game sizes to grow a decent amount. Whether that'll make a huge difference remains to be seen but the same people who care about HD are going to care about compression artifacts so aren't likely to choose the Xbox over the PS3.
This is the weird thing with all the 'we might release a version of Xbox 360 with HD-DVD support later' indications from M$. How on earth will they ensure compatability with the existing base if games start shipping on HD-DVD (something Sony doesn't have to worry about from the start)?
HD-DVD was designed as a bridge from DVD. The NA and disc structure is almost identical between the two. I'm sure Microsoft has added support in the chipsets to handle more than just DVD media because Xboxes have hard drives as well.
Quote:
Will it be another example of the Megadrive/Genesis CD add-on experience?
I don't see any problems with a bifurcated line. Xbox360 for basic gaming and online play. XboxHD for gaming, online play and multimedia(Media Center).
Quote:
And hmurchison, I don't see that the HDTV issue is that much of an issue. It is a chicken and egg scenario. The HDTVs with HDMI are now becoming reasonably affordable, so it is not inconceivable that people do upgrade the TV over the life-span of the PS3 console.
Exactly it's something that is going to happen over time. However Blu-Ray fans seem to think that one year after the PS3 ships there will be 3 million PS3 users and Blu-Ray movie purchasers. This isn't going to happen. It'll be spread over months..years even and I really believe the Xbox will have a HD-DVD player sooner rather than later. MS is going to be first to market, they have time for a second model in the future.
I don't see any problems with a bifurcated line. Xbox360 for basic gaming and online play. XboxHD for gaming, online play and multimedia(Media Center).
We differ here. A bifurcated line will cause confusion and frustration with those who buy the console at launch. It is not just about the deliverable content (in terms of movies etc) but what the storage capacity is for games (unless they stealth in drives and upgrade them later with firmware, but this is highly unlikely). (Nearly) All PS2 games were on CD-ROM at launch time, but within a year or so they were mostly on DVDs. I understand what you are saying re; the 'normal' vs 'HD' version of things, and HD-DVD is definitely the way to go for this, but I think it will hurt M$ if the early adopters get a lower quality experience.
Quote:
Originally posted by hmurchison
Exactly it's something that is going to happen over time. However Blu-Ray fans seem to think that one year after the PS3 ships there will be 3 million PS3 users and Blu-Ray movie purchasers. This isn't going to happen. It'll be spread over months..years even and I really believe the Xbox will have a HD-DVD player sooner rather than later. MS is going to be first to market, they have time for a second model in the future.
I agree with the first rationale, and I don't think the penetration will occur as quickly as some believe. But it is important that the capability is there. Certainly some of those people will have HDTV and will buy movies to watch on their console. If only 5% or so, that is still all to the good for the BDA. If the movies are there (and this in itself is quite an important caveat) I cannot imagine somone spending another $1000 or so on a device to play the same quality of content that they have paid $500 or so for (and I would lay money on the fact that the PS3 will not cost more than that).
Microsoft has to go here or they'll leave themselves wide open.
I just read(no links though) that the PS3 is rumored to be $399 and cost around $499. That's only a $100 premium over the Xbox 360 for the pleasure of playing ALL PS games and Movies(for those with capable HDTV) and other features.
Microsoft is going to have to do something in this regard. Perhaps a trade up, rebate or what have you.
Microsoft has to go here or they'll leave themselves wide open.
I just read(no links though) that the PS3 is rumored to be $399 and cost around $499. That's only a $100 premium over the Xbox 360 for the pleasure of playing ALL PS games and Movies(for those with capable HDTV) and other features.
Microsoft is going to have to do something in this regard. Perhaps a trade up, rebate or what have you.
Exactly. I cannot believe that Bill Gates has even hinted that they might add functionality to the console further down the line. What will this do to initial sales, if people think they might get a better version later? A very strange tactic indeed.
(I read on Joystiq a while ago Sony were looking at no more than $450 or so, $399 sounds superb.)
As an aside, I wonder if Sony are going to try something similar to the PS2s 'smoothing' of PS1 games. That would be awesome for HD...
...maybe
[Edit: And it ain't over til the fat lady finishes singing and dodges the flowers...]
I won?t hypothesize on how we get there. I just think it?s just wrong-minded to think that somehow we?d go a whole generation without this. We?re not going to be sitting here five years saying, ?Oh jeez, we don?t have HD DVD-type storage.? But we?re going to out perform Sony in a lot of things. We?re faster on integer than they are, they?re faster on floating point than we are. To sit there and just take a look and say ?Well, they?re just faster?? Well, we?ve got three cores, they?ve got one core.
2. Again a modern HDTV with HDMI/DVI HDCP is "required" for HD resolutions. No component out at HD rez.
As long as they insist on HDCP, and no one cracks it, they will sell absolutely nothing to me. My one-month old HD computer monitor doesn't support HDCP and it would be far too expensive to switch again.
The PS3 v XB360 argument is entwined with the question of HD media of choice, but in the end the format that gives the best (affordable) access to film/TV content will win. Consumers will sit on the fence till then. There's plenty of DVD content, which is good enough for many, and lotsa of Cable on demand too.
People still like the idea of owning their favorites, so a medium will emerge, but I don't really care which one it is.
We'll see, I don't doubt the influence that PS3 will have but I doubt that it'll cause a shit in power to Blu-Ray. HDTV isn't required for PS3 thus it'll still be hooked to plenty of Std Def TVs.
I looke for HD-DVD to get MS Media Center support soon with Microsoft's partnership. War is inevitable...moving to Defcon 2
I think that this strategy was to get the early volume up to help drive producion costs down. I don't think that the numbers that Sony is shipping will not have that much of an effect but it does give their production facilities a volume customer, even if it is internal, and that may help begin to drive down the production costs. A kind of jump start, if you will. This may help influence the market, even a very little is a win for them. It does get the product out in a market, for hands on tech review. It is somewhat closed in that Sony can help to design games that show the strengths of BluRay, they can influence the wow factor. I will not say that this is a win for Sony, far from it. I will say that it appears to be a very smart move.
I cannot believe that Bill Gates has even hinted that they might add functionality to the console further down the line. What will this do to initial sales, if people think they might get a better version later? A very strange tactic indeed.
Come on, you know the fanboys will be lining up at midnight to buy the 360 when it comes out.
One thing is for sure, a format war is an idea so bad it's amazing that we are going to have to go through another one. It's bad for absolutely everyone, it will be a disaster.
That Blu-Ray is slightly higher spec is a total irrelevance. All that matters is price of the players and availability of software. Last time I checked HD-DVD had more studio support and the discs were going to be cheaper to manufacture. (which is rather important for the studios)
Add to that the name of the thing, - it's the natural successor to DVD, and that it's not another Sony 'standard' and I think it will win this battle. Frankly I'm sick of Sony always trying to invent and control their own standards, why can't they just play along? From betamax to mini disc, memory stick, UMD and now blu-ray, their arrogance really irritates me.
What about Toshiba's arrogance? It's pretty much them against Pioneer, Philips, Sony, JVC, Panasonic, etc. They are the ones pushing a boulder up a hill. At least the BluRay disc structure has a future. HD-DVD is all about cost cutting. Capacity is limited. Recording is an afterthought. Give them less for more seems to be the theme.
Think of HD-DVD as Windows XP and BluRay as MacOS X. You can either take the easy way out and simply add/patch what you already have for a mediocre product or start over from scratch to create a great product. It's the same line of thinking.
I don't think that the numbers that Sony is shipping will not have that much of an effect but it does give their production facilities a volume customer, even if it is internal, and that may help begin to drive down the production costs.
It would have a huge effect, even if compared to DVDs. DVD players ship 22m/year PS3 will be 14m/2006.
When compared to DVD the effect is substantial, and when compared to HD-DVD, the effect of the PS3 will be staggering.
You will have 14 million PS3s in the first year, compared to maybe 100,000 non-PS3 Blue-ray and HD-DVD drives. Saying that PS3 will not have much effect is like saying that Microsoft has no effect on computer operating systems.
One much neglected fact is which will win in the PC space. Dell, HP and Apple have all signed on with Blu-ray, as has EA games. I can't see Microsoft turning to Dell and HP and saying sorry only HD-DVD support either. If you have a Blu-ray writer on your computer which player do you go out and buy?
In the end it just seems like there are too many big players supporting Blu-ray for it not to be a success though. Pioneer, Philips, Sony, JVC and Panasonic, between them that's a very large fraction of DVD player/recorder sales and people will buy on brand alone.
It would have a huge effect, even if compared to DVDs. DVD players ship 22m/year PS3 will be 14m/2006.
When compared to DVD the effect is substantial, and when compared to HD-DVD, the effect of the PS3 will be staggering.
You will have 14 million PS3s in the first year, compared to maybe 100,000 non-PS3 Blue-ray and HD-DVD drives. Saying that PS3 will not have much effect is like saying that Microsoft has no effect on computer operating systems.
Those 22m DVD players are just that DVD players. Those PS3 Blue-ray drives will mostly be just that, drives for PS3 games. While Sony will have most of players out there they are in the wrong market, they are stuck in gaming consoles not in DVD players. While PS3 will be able to play Blue-ray movies/DVDs, just like my PS2 can play DVDs. The problem is that while all of the PS2s can play DVDs do you count them as DVD players or as gaming consoles. The numbers will be large but the impact on the DVD player market will be small, but those numbers will help manufacturing drive down the costs associated with manufacture.
Comments
I looke for HD-DVD to get MS Media Center support soon with Microsoft's partnership. War is inevitable...moving to Defcon 2
Originally posted by Telomar
As an aside the big loser though in all of this is the Xbox 360 games as its games get larger they are going to whack straight into the constraints of DL DVDs or rely on compression. Sony's partners really have a lot of disc space to play with.
This is the weird thing with all the 'we might release a version of Xbox 360 with HD-DVD support later' indications from M$. How on earth will they ensure compatability with the existing base if games start shipping on HD-DVD (something Sony doesn't have to worry about from the start)?
Will it be another example of the Megadrive/Genesis CD add-on experience?
(Imagine all the new FF FMV sequences in HD though...)
And hmurchison, I don't see that the HDTV issue is that much of an issue. It is a chicken and egg scenario. The HDTVs with HDMI are now becoming reasonably affordable, so it is not inconceivable that people do upgrade the TV over the life-span of the PS3 console. It is more of a subtle market penetration (but nevertheless not trivial). I don't expect anyone to specifically buy PS3 to play HD movies from the get-go (unlike they did with the PS2 and DVDs), but it has the capability. I don't think Sony should be underestimated here.
Originally posted by DaveLee
This is the weird thing with all the 'we might release a version of Xbox 360 with HD-DVD support later' indications from M$. How on earth will they ensure compatability with the existing base if games start shipping on HD-DVD (something Sony doesn't have to worry about from the start)?
I doubt game companies will be allowed to switch media. It'd just destroy Microsoft's reputation with the market and would be seen as gouging the market. Why buy Microsoft when they build in planned obsolescence early? No they'll be stuck with DL games for the life time and in 5 years I'd expect game sizes to grow a decent amount. Whether that'll make a huge difference remains to be seen but the same people who care about HD are going to care about compression artifacts so aren't likely to choose the Xbox over the PS3.
This is the weird thing with all the 'we might release a version of Xbox 360 with HD-DVD support later' indications from M$. How on earth will they ensure compatability with the existing base if games start shipping on HD-DVD (something Sony doesn't have to worry about from the start)?
HD-DVD was designed as a bridge from DVD. The NA and disc structure is almost identical between the two. I'm sure Microsoft has added support in the chipsets to handle more than just DVD media because Xboxes have hard drives as well.
Will it be another example of the Megadrive/Genesis CD add-on experience?
I don't see any problems with a bifurcated line. Xbox360 for basic gaming and online play. XboxHD for gaming, online play and multimedia(Media Center).
And hmurchison, I don't see that the HDTV issue is that much of an issue. It is a chicken and egg scenario. The HDTVs with HDMI are now becoming reasonably affordable, so it is not inconceivable that people do upgrade the TV over the life-span of the PS3 console.
Exactly it's something that is going to happen over time. However Blu-Ray fans seem to think that one year after the PS3 ships there will be 3 million PS3 users and Blu-Ray movie purchasers. This isn't going to happen. It'll be spread over months..years even and I really believe the Xbox will have a HD-DVD player sooner rather than later. MS is going to be first to market, they have time for a second model in the future.
Originally posted by hmurchison
I don't see any problems with a bifurcated line. Xbox360 for basic gaming and online play. XboxHD for gaming, online play and multimedia(Media Center).
We differ here. A bifurcated line will cause confusion and frustration with those who buy the console at launch. It is not just about the deliverable content (in terms of movies etc) but what the storage capacity is for games (unless they stealth in drives and upgrade them later with firmware, but this is highly unlikely). (Nearly) All PS2 games were on CD-ROM at launch time, but within a year or so they were mostly on DVDs. I understand what you are saying re; the 'normal' vs 'HD' version of things, and HD-DVD is definitely the way to go for this, but I think it will hurt M$ if the early adopters get a lower quality experience.
Originally posted by hmurchison
Exactly it's something that is going to happen over time. However Blu-Ray fans seem to think that one year after the PS3 ships there will be 3 million PS3 users and Blu-Ray movie purchasers. This isn't going to happen. It'll be spread over months..years even and I really believe the Xbox will have a HD-DVD player sooner rather than later. MS is going to be first to market, they have time for a second model in the future.
I agree with the first rationale, and I don't think the penetration will occur as quickly as some believe. But it is important that the capability is there. Certainly some of those people will have HDTV and will buy movies to watch on their console. If only 5% or so, that is still all to the good for the BDA. If the movies are there (and this in itself is quite an important caveat) I cannot imagine somone spending another $1000 or so on a device to play the same quality of content that they have paid $500 or so for (and I would lay money on the fact that the PS3 will not cost more than that).
I just read(no links though) that the PS3 is rumored to be $399 and cost around $499. That's only a $100 premium over the Xbox 360 for the pleasure of playing ALL PS games and Movies(for those with capable HDTV) and other features.
Microsoft is going to have to do something in this regard. Perhaps a trade up, rebate or what have you.
Originally posted by hmurchison
Microsoft has to go here or they'll leave themselves wide open.
I just read(no links though) that the PS3 is rumored to be $399 and cost around $499. That's only a $100 premium over the Xbox 360 for the pleasure of playing ALL PS games and Movies(for those with capable HDTV) and other features.
Microsoft is going to have to do something in this regard. Perhaps a trade up, rebate or what have you.
Exactly. I cannot believe that Bill Gates has even hinted that they might add functionality to the console further down the line. What will this do to initial sales, if people think they might get a better version later? A very strange tactic indeed.
(I read on Joystiq a while ago Sony were looking at no more than $450 or so, $399 sounds superb.)
As an aside, I wonder if Sony are going to try something similar to the PS2s 'smoothing' of PS1 games. That would be awesome for HD...
...maybe
[Edit: And it ain't over til the fat lady finishes singing and dodges the flowers...]
I won?t hypothesize on how we get there. I just think it?s just wrong-minded to think that somehow we?d go a whole generation without this. We?re not going to be sitting here five years saying, ?Oh jeez, we don?t have HD DVD-type storage.? But we?re going to out perform Sony in a lot of things. We?re faster on integer than they are, they?re faster on floating point than we are. To sit there and just take a look and say ?Well, they?re just faster?? Well, we?ve got three cores, they?ve got one core.
Ballmer's being vague. Engaget interview
Hmmmm.....?
(And there goes Ballmer again, insinuating that all iPod owners have majoritively illegal songs on them. What is this guy's problem?!??)
(And there goes Ballmer again, insinuating that all iPod owners have majoritively illegal songs on them. What is this guy's problem?!??)
He misses his hair.
Originally posted by hmurchison
2. Again a modern HDTV with HDMI/DVI HDCP is "required" for HD resolutions. No component out at HD rez.
As long as they insist on HDCP, and no one cracks it, they will sell absolutely nothing to me. My one-month old HD computer monitor doesn't support HDCP and it would be far too expensive to switch again.
The PS3 v XB360 argument is entwined with the question of HD media of choice, but in the end the format that gives the best (affordable) access to film/TV content will win. Consumers will sit on the fence till then. There's plenty of DVD content, which is good enough for many, and lotsa of Cable on demand too.
People still like the idea of owning their favorites, so a medium will emerge, but I don't really care which one it is.
Originally posted by hmurchison
We'll see, I don't doubt the influence that PS3 will have but I doubt that it'll cause a shit in power to Blu-Ray. HDTV isn't required for PS3 thus it'll still be hooked to plenty of Std Def TVs.
I looke for HD-DVD to get MS Media Center support soon with Microsoft's partnership. War is inevitable...moving to Defcon 2
I think that this strategy was to get the early volume up to help drive producion costs down. I don't think that the numbers that Sony is shipping will not have that much of an effect but it does give their production facilities a volume customer, even if it is internal, and that may help begin to drive down the production costs. A kind of jump start, if you will. This may help influence the market, even a very little is a win for them. It does get the product out in a market, for hands on tech review. It is somewhat closed in that Sony can help to design games that show the strengths of BluRay, they can influence the wow factor. I will not say that this is a win for Sony, far from it. I will say that it appears to be a very smart move.
Originally posted by DaveLee
I cannot believe that Bill Gates has even hinted that they might add functionality to the console further down the line. What will this do to initial sales, if people think they might get a better version later? A very strange tactic indeed.
Come on, you know the fanboys will be lining up at midnight to buy the 360 when it comes out.
That Blu-Ray is slightly higher spec is a total irrelevance. All that matters is price of the players and availability of software. Last time I checked HD-DVD had more studio support and the discs were going to be cheaper to manufacture. (which is rather important for the studios)
Add to that the name of the thing, - it's the natural successor to DVD, and that it's not another Sony 'standard' and I think it will win this battle. Frankly I'm sick of Sony always trying to invent and control their own standards, why can't they just play along? From betamax to mini disc, memory stick, UMD and now blu-ray, their arrogance really irritates me.
Think of HD-DVD as Windows XP and BluRay as MacOS X. You can either take the easy way out and simply add/patch what you already have for a mediocre product or start over from scratch to create a great product. It's the same line of thinking.
I don't think that the numbers that Sony is shipping will not have that much of an effect but it does give their production facilities a volume customer, even if it is internal, and that may help begin to drive down the production costs.
It would have a huge effect, even if compared to DVDs. DVD players ship 22m/year PS3 will be 14m/2006.
When compared to DVD the effect is substantial, and when compared to HD-DVD, the effect of the PS3 will be staggering.
You will have 14 million PS3s in the first year, compared to maybe 100,000 non-PS3 Blue-ray and HD-DVD drives. Saying that PS3 will not have much effect is like saying that Microsoft has no effect on computer operating systems.
http://www.kotaku.com/gaming/gossip/...yer-110785.php
Xbox 360 HD-DVD from the start?
http://www.dvdtown.com/article/hd-dv...oftitles/1582/
HD-DVD titles announced.
If 360 shipped with HD-DVD, and PS3 with Blu-Ray, we really would be in for an interesting, if utterly pointless format battle.
In the end it just seems like there are too many big players supporting Blu-ray for it not to be a success though. Pioneer, Philips, Sony, JVC and Panasonic, between them that's a very large fraction of DVD player/recorder sales and people will buy on brand alone.
Originally posted by e1618978
It would have a huge effect, even if compared to DVDs. DVD players ship 22m/year PS3 will be 14m/2006.
When compared to DVD the effect is substantial, and when compared to HD-DVD, the effect of the PS3 will be staggering.
You will have 14 million PS3s in the first year, compared to maybe 100,000 non-PS3 Blue-ray and HD-DVD drives. Saying that PS3 will not have much effect is like saying that Microsoft has no effect on computer operating systems.
Those 22m DVD players are just that DVD players. Those PS3 Blue-ray drives will mostly be just that, drives for PS3 games. While Sony will have most of players out there they are in the wrong market, they are stuck in gaming consoles not in DVD players. While PS3 will be able to play Blue-ray movies/DVDs, just like my PS2 can play DVDs. The problem is that while all of the PS2s can play DVDs do you count them as DVD players or as gaming consoles. The numbers will be large but the impact on the DVD player market will be small, but those numbers will help manufacturing drive down the costs associated with manufacture.