Hd isn't dieing, and it needs a major distribution medium.
Let's slow down here. I never once said that HD is dying. HD is the future. We'll get to 1080p then we'll get past that, even.
But we're not going to be there tomorrow or even in 2006. This will all take time. In the meantime, I think it behooves the smart consumer to make wise decisions with their money. I think EDTV has a lot of room yet left for growth.
But I am usually wrong when I try to crawl into the mind of the American consumer. I do know that a $2500 (at least!) hurdle to Blu-Ray/HD-DVD access is far higher than most Americans are willing to go.
But I am usually wrong when I try to crawl into the mind of the American consumer. I do know that a $2500 (at least!) hurdle to Blu-Ray/HD-DVD access is far higher than most Americans are willing to go.
$2500? I think the average consumer could get by with a $1499 rear projection HDTV set. Still more than the typical tv set, but quite a bit cheeper than $2500. Perhaps you meant $2500 for the player and the tv, in which case first gen will cost that much. But first gen dvd players were equally expensive. New tech takes time to come down in price.
Best Buy currently has a Toshiba 57" Widescreen Rear-Projection HDTV w/HDMI Input for $1499. They also have a $599 flat tube hdtv available (30"). Granted, these aren't top of the line by any means, but they will produce pictures that blow away a SD set (using an HD source of course), and they don't demolish your bank account.
1. shakespearean reference ("full of sound and fury, signifying nothing...") IIRC mi high skool literachure correktly
2. sensible plasmatv buy of a 480p set and being clued-in on SED
3. yeah, bluray vs hdvd is, like most wars, pointless at the end of the day
all that money and energy could be channeled into digital distribution and storage of 240p(ipod etc), 480p, 720p and 1080p content (just to stir the pot i will state again that 1080i is a dirty hack that's just used because of the old-skool thinking style of old-skool analog TV. interlacing is so last century )
Oh the specs are there, but the damn silly HDCP connector isn't. My LCD could happily show 720 but there is no way to get the signal in.
It's this that will put people off, most LCDs here have SCART and VGA inputs which means no HDTV.
These are TV monitors, they have Hi-Def tuners built-in. And they will show current Hi-Def video from a computer. Next year may be different. But they will work for OVA broadcasts.
Sounds fishy - one minute they are frantically trying to back HD-DVD and derail Blu-ray, and (after they lose the battle, for all intents and purposes) "the physical format no longer matters".
well gates did say this was the last gen of this type of format, doesn't mean he is completely abandoning it.
blu-ray hasn't won yet
HP is pressuring them to add some content HD-DVD already incorporated.
Yes HP is coming to their senses and realizing that iHD is better than Java for making menus. Maybe if they think harder they'll realize that there is no need for blu ray's "superior" capacity. In a decade if many of the movie purchases or rentals are electronic space issues for a delivery medium are moot.
Yes HP is coming to their senses and realizing that iHD is better than Java for making menus. Maybe if they think harder they'll realize that there is no need for blu ray's "superior" capacity. In a decade if many of the movie purchases or rentals are electronic space issues for a delivery medium are moot.
I would agree if the only issue was the recorded content, but it's also the recordable nature that's important.
You don't think that BR's much larger capacity in that area matters?
No. I simply don't think DL recordable media will ever have the time to lower enough in price to make people care.
Bill is right. Physical discs are going bye bye. I'd rather jack in a flash drive to a HTPC download my video and carry that with me for playback rather than fret on if my buddies Playstation will track my video just right.
The tolerances that will be required for stable blue laser recording are a great deal higher than red laser and even today some burners aren't producing flawless discs.
a decade ago hard drives were prohibitively expensive. A 1GB Seagate drive would run you roughly $850. Today $800 buys you a terabyte of hard drive space. A 1000x improvement. So now let us assume that the growth of hard drives increases at only half the rate in the next 10 years. We'd still be looking at 250 Terabytes of hard drive space in 2015. Even today Seagate could easily ship a 650GB+ drive but why rush?
Thus for once I have to agree with Billy G. The advent of flash and the increases in drive technology really make the need to shuffle around polycarbonate discs a trend that isn't likely to last. Within 5yrs flash drives will hold 20GB+ right around your neck. That's much hipper than the 12cm shiny disc that scratches a wee bit too easily.
Bring on the HD..although I don't think either format will live for a decade before being usurped by a better delivery medium.
No. I simply don't think DL recordable media will ever have the time to lower enough in price to make people care.
Bill is right. Physical discs are going bye bye. I'd rather jack in a flash drive to a HTPC download my video and carry that with me for playback rather than fret on if my buddies Playstation will track my video just right.
The tolerances that will be required for stable blue laser recording are a great deal higher than red laser and even today some burners aren't producing flawless discs.
a decade ago hard drives were prohibitively expensive. A 1GB Seagate drive would run you roughly $850. Today $800 buys you a terabyte of hard drive space. A 1000x improvement. So now let us assume that the growth of hard drives increases at only half the rate in the next 10 years. We'd still be looking at 250 Terabytes of hard drive space in 2015. Even today Seagate could easily ship a 650GB+ drive but why rush?
Thus for once I have to agree with Billy G. The advent of flash and the increases in drive technology really make the need to shuffle around polycarbonate discs a trend that isn't likely to last. Within 5yrs flash drives will hold 20GB+ right around your neck. That's much hipper than the 12cm shiny disc that scratches a wee bit too easily.
Bring on the HD..although I don't think either format will live for a decade before being usurped by a better delivery medium.
I remember prices much higher than that for HD's.
I also remember that when they first came out that CD-R recorders could only record at 1x and cost $6,000. The disks had to be used in a cassette (I still have some), and cost over $75.
It's likely that someday, disks might be replaced for content produced professionally by content producers. But it won't eliminate the need to put either backups or home made content on something other than HD's, no matter how cheap they get.
They still fail. I've had that happen several times the last year alone.
Besides, if you want one recording to take with you, a disk is still safer and cheaper than even a 1" HD.
As either format will be 100% compatable with what came before, I just don't see a problem.
And I think it will be around longer than you think. Enough time for the disks to come down in price. RE is part of the original standard here, so the disks can be reused.
Sounds fishy - one minute they are frantically trying to back HD-DVD and derail Blu-ray, and (after they lose the battle, for all intents and purposes) "the physical format no longer matters".
sour grapes...
Gates also forgets a vital thing, people LOVE actually owning movies, music, games etc. Content on demand is nice, but I still buy the movies I like.
Comments
Originally posted by kupan787
Hd isn't dieing, and it needs a major distribution medium.
Let's slow down here. I never once said that HD is dying. HD is the future. We'll get to 1080p then we'll get past that, even.
But we're not going to be there tomorrow or even in 2006. This will all take time. In the meantime, I think it behooves the smart consumer to make wise decisions with their money. I think EDTV has a lot of room yet left for growth.
But I am usually wrong when I try to crawl into the mind of the American consumer. I do know that a $2500 (at least!) hurdle to Blu-Ray/HD-DVD access is far higher than most Americans are willing to go.
Originally posted by groverat
But I am usually wrong when I try to crawl into the mind of the American consumer. I do know that a $2500 (at least!) hurdle to Blu-Ray/HD-DVD access is far higher than most Americans are willing to go.
$2500? I think the average consumer could get by with a $1499 rear projection HDTV set. Still more than the typical tv set, but quite a bit cheeper than $2500. Perhaps you meant $2500 for the player and the tv, in which case first gen will cost that much. But first gen dvd players were equally expensive. New tech takes time to come down in price.
Best Buy currently has a Toshiba 57" Widescreen Rear-Projection HDTV w/HDMI Input for $1499. They also have a $599 flat tube hdtv available (30"). Granted, these aren't top of the line by any means, but they will produce pictures that blow away a SD set (using an HD source of course), and they don't demolish your bank account.
1. shakespearean reference ("full of sound and fury, signifying nothing...") IIRC mi high skool literachure correktly
2. sensible plasmatv buy of a 480p set and being clued-in on SED
3. yeah, bluray vs hdvd is, like most wars, pointless at the end of the day
all that money and energy could be channeled into digital distribution and storage of 240p(ipod etc), 480p, 720p and 1080p content (just to stir the pot i will state again that 1080i is a dirty hack that's just used because of the old-skool thinking style of old-skool analog TV. interlacing is so last century
Originally posted by Blackcat
Oh the specs are there, but the damn silly HDCP connector isn't. My LCD could happily show 720 but there is no way to get the signal in.
It's this that will put people off, most LCDs here have SCART and VGA inputs which means no HDTV.
These are TV monitors, they have Hi-Def tuners built-in. And they will show current Hi-Def video from a computer. Next year may be different. But they will work for OVA broadcasts.
http://www.planetxbox360.com/?view=article&article=392
Sony seems to be pushing for blu-ray so hard because if they lose this they are totally f&*cked.
if the video ipod truly takes off this could leap frog next generation dvd's.
Originally posted by Elixir
Bill Gates
Sounds fishy - one minute they are frantically trying to back HD-DVD and derail Blu-ray, and (after they lose the battle, for all intents and purposes) "the physical format no longer matters".
sour grapes...
blu-ray hasn't won yet
HP is pressuring them to add some content HD-DVD already incorporated.
Originally posted by Elixir
well gates did say this was the last gen of this type of format, doesn't mean he is completely abandoning it.
blu-ray hasn't won yet
HP is pressuring them to add some content HD-DVD already incorporated.
Yes HP is coming to their senses and realizing that iHD is better than Java for making menus. Maybe if they think harder they'll realize that there is no need for blu ray's "superior" capacity. In a decade if many of the movie purchases or rentals are electronic space issues for a delivery medium are moot.
Originally posted by hmurchison
Yes HP is coming to their senses and realizing that iHD is better than Java for making menus. Maybe if they think harder they'll realize that there is no need for blu ray's "superior" capacity. In a decade if many of the movie purchases or rentals are electronic space issues for a delivery medium are moot.
I would agree if the only issue was the recorded content, but it's also the recordable nature that's important.
You don't think that BR's much larger capacity in that area matters?
Bill is right. Physical discs are going bye bye. I'd rather jack in a flash drive to a HTPC download my video and carry that with me for playback rather than fret on if my buddies Playstation will track my video just right.
The tolerances that will be required for stable blue laser recording are a great deal higher than red laser and even today some burners aren't producing flawless discs.
a decade ago hard drives were prohibitively expensive. A 1GB Seagate drive would run you roughly $850. Today $800 buys you a terabyte of hard drive space. A 1000x improvement. So now let us assume that the growth of hard drives increases at only half the rate in the next 10 years. We'd still be looking at 250 Terabytes of hard drive space in 2015. Even today Seagate could easily ship a 650GB+ drive but why rush?
Thus for once I have to agree with Billy G. The advent of flash and the increases in drive technology really make the need to shuffle around polycarbonate discs a trend that isn't likely to last. Within 5yrs flash drives will hold 20GB+ right around your neck. That's much hipper than the 12cm shiny disc that scratches a wee bit too easily.
Bring on the HD..although I don't think either format will live for a decade before being usurped by a better delivery medium.
Originally posted by hmurchison
No. I simply don't think DL recordable media will ever have the time to lower enough in price to make people care.
Bill is right. Physical discs are going bye bye. I'd rather jack in a flash drive to a HTPC download my video and carry that with me for playback rather than fret on if my buddies Playstation will track my video just right.
The tolerances that will be required for stable blue laser recording are a great deal higher than red laser and even today some burners aren't producing flawless discs.
a decade ago hard drives were prohibitively expensive. A 1GB Seagate drive would run you roughly $850. Today $800 buys you a terabyte of hard drive space. A 1000x improvement. So now let us assume that the growth of hard drives increases at only half the rate in the next 10 years. We'd still be looking at 250 Terabytes of hard drive space in 2015. Even today Seagate could easily ship a 650GB+ drive but why rush?
Thus for once I have to agree with Billy G. The advent of flash and the increases in drive technology really make the need to shuffle around polycarbonate discs a trend that isn't likely to last. Within 5yrs flash drives will hold 20GB+ right around your neck. That's much hipper than the 12cm shiny disc that scratches a wee bit too easily.
Bring on the HD..although I don't think either format will live for a decade before being usurped by a better delivery medium.
I remember prices much higher than that for HD's.
I also remember that when they first came out that CD-R recorders could only record at 1x and cost $6,000. The disks had to be used in a cassette (I still have some), and cost over $75.
It's likely that someday, disks might be replaced for content produced professionally by content producers. But it won't eliminate the need to put either backups or home made content on something other than HD's, no matter how cheap they get.
They still fail. I've had that happen several times the last year alone.
Besides, if you want one recording to take with you, a disk is still safer and cheaper than even a 1" HD.
As either format will be 100% compatable with what came before, I just don't see a problem.
And I think it will be around longer than you think. Enough time for the disks to come down in price. RE is part of the original standard here, so the disks can be reused.
Warner signs up to deliver Blu-Ray movies
I think HD-DVD just lost. I don't know how they'll be able to surmount this. All hail the new King. Blu Ray!!! Come kiss the new King's DRM.
Originally posted by hmurchison
Uh oh
Warner signs up to deliver Blu-Ray movies
I think HD-DVD just lost. I don't know how they'll be able to surmount this. All hail the new King. Blu Ray!!! Come kiss the new King's DRM.
Two things missing. One is whether they will contunue to plan to release movies on HD DVD.
Two. If you look at the Board of Directors listing you will see that Apple's name is not there. I read it twice to make sure I didn't miss it.
When I went the the Blu-Ray assoc site, Apple's name is still there.
Strange. Typo? Or something else?
Originally posted by hmurchison
Yes HP is coming to their senses and realizing that iHD is better than Java for making menus.
Why do HP care? They are not content creators.
Originally posted by e1618978
Sounds fishy - one minute they are frantically trying to back HD-DVD and derail Blu-ray, and (after they lose the battle, for all intents and purposes) "the physical format no longer matters".
sour grapes...
Gates also forgets a vital thing, people LOVE actually owning movies, music, games etc. Content on demand is nice, but I still buy the movies I like.
Also
"Sony Pictures, Disney, Fox and Lion's Gate have sided with the Blu-Ray group, but have not shown any inclination to make DVD's in Toshiba's format."
That say's it all, I guess.