I have a 23" display at work attached to a PB and prefer it to the 20" iMac at home. I don't know if a 23" iMac would get me to move up, but I would be more tempted if there was a dual core G5 BTO option.
I think Apple is going to work hard to max the value of the dual cores before the Mactels come out. Freescale will eventually deliver their dual core G4 for the PB, allowing APple to wait 6 - 9 months before moving it to Intel. All PMs ship with the same motherboard so it's possible to provide a BTO option for a second processor in both of the lower ranges - and I think that would sell well. Adding a dual core G5 chip to the iMac, even if it on a BTO option only would work nicely around April. (Didn't Apple put in another air vent in the back and a new mb in the latest iMacs?)
I believe that Apple will offer some very attractive BTO options (and keep a few in the APple Stores), leaving most resellers left with the current configs.
To predict which product will be first to Intel, we need to stop thinking about computer specs/performance (I know; it's hard for all of us tech buffs here) and think about it from a purely marketing standpoint. Apple is a business, not a tech research firm.
To do this, we need to look at the following questions:
1. What group will buy the most Macs?
2. Which Mac will engage this group the most?
3. How do we tailor a Mac to meet these needs?
Apple has created a market for itself: the iPod. Or maybe more accurately put, Apple has produced a "gateway" product to intice more people to come to their brand. Every other kid and a lot adults now have some sort of iPod. The people who opted for another type of MP3 player are now realizing they made a mistake. (This might be one reason Apple keeps coming out with new and better iPods) This group now has confidence in the Apple brand. But if they have and iPod, then they must have some sort of computer. It is a safe bet that most owners of iPods are PC users now. They already bought the $599 Dell or whatever. Hey, they got a monitor, printer, and (gasp!) a digital camera with the deal. So this group likes their iPod the most out of all their gadgets because (surprise) it just works. Now these folks have an aging Dell desktop (aging meaning 18+ months old), and it has naturally begun to be slower and slower because of the nature of the XP Beast. They are tired of virii and crashes, and these people think they need a new, faster computer, and they're looking at Apple. They have the "extras" (keyboard, mouse, etc.), but the need the machine.
Apple created the Mac Mini just for this purpose. Once they convert it to an Intel, then the specs will be clear to those people who don't take the time to investigate what a G4 is. It will be easier to convert the masses. When this happens, there might be deals with big distributers like Best Buy, Circuit City, and others to ONLY carry the Mac Mini (with their iPods, of course). This would have a profound effect on sales for Apple. If a customer can compare Mac OS X and XP side by side, and look at the price, then I think customers will pick up the Mac mini over the Wintel Box when they see the integration of the iPod and the "coolness" of the Mac Mini. They are buying cool.
The next product will be the iBook, then the iMac. Then, finally (MWSF 2007?), the pro lines. Think about it: why would Apple want to upgrade the computers that sell the least first? That is unfortunate for power/pro users, but that is the nature of business.
As for this MWSF, there needs to be killer aps that will further intice switchers:
iWork '06:
Pages 2.0--Will do everything that most Word users need. Will include more templates for students (built-in MLA, APA, Chicago formats for papers, ability to create typical class projects [science labs, newsletters, flyer, etc.], the abililty to create good html web pages, on top of everything else.
"Numbers"?--Spreadsheet including built-in commonly used functions and integration with other apps.
Keynote 3.0--Better PowerPoint compatibilty and better graphics/effects.
iLife '06:
More and better of the same apps. There might be a couple of little apps like photobooth and FrontRow for the other Macs that will point further to home theatre integration. There will be announcements of more TV shows (CBS, NBC, and HBO) and possibly movies that will be available on iTunes. I think a $14.99 H.264 movie would go over well. I think this is where the video iPod is going. 50 Movies in your pocket? Apple might be looking to go to portable home entertainment along with integration (recreation?) of at-home entertainment with the HDTV/DTV mandate coming up. Also there could be a subscription service for video podcasts of programs like SportsCenter and different newscasts ($5/mo gets you daily video podcasts of SportsCenter, for example--you can watch while on the train or at work). I think we are seeing a new industry popping up. Ebooks will go by the way-side, and downloadable video podcasts of how-to videos will be on the rise.
Office '06 preview:
Won't be available for 8 months, but they will claim it will be available "soon."
NO Preview of new OS X. That will be WWDC, available Q3 2006.
Upgrade to iSight--better video quality and audio quality. Lower price.
One More thing...?
MWSF and the next couple of years will be very exciting, I think.
we need to stop thinking about computer specs/performance ... Apple created the Mac Mini just for this purpose... then I think customers will pick up the Mac mini over the Wintel Box when they see the integration of the iPod and the "coolness" of the Mac Mini. They are buying cool.
The next product will be the iBook, then the iMac.
-E
Yep I agree it's the mac mini that will go first - the mini is sold as an out of the box computing solution and the specs are hardly mentioned. At the moment they aren't even mentioning the upgrade in processor speed - it's not really relevant to the market. I believe the message will be it's a great mac because it does all this great stuff, and oh it runs on intel now. Also I bet the average mini user doesn't add any more software on top of what comes in the box, so the switch will be irrelevant to these guys.
My other thought is that I remember reading somewhere that steve was frustrated at the need to launch products at the keynotes - it's obviously much easier and better to introduce products when it suits them during the year rather than have hit the big shows. I think the cancellation of the keynote in Paris and the series of announcements this Autumn was them trying that out. I wouldn't be at all suprised if we get similar treatment in January. I don't expect they'll go the whole hog and cancel the keynote, but I do expect it'll feature more talk about strategy and less new product introductions.
Yep I agree it's the mac mini that will go first ...
re: mac mini, macrumors posted a rumor today that intel mac mini might be announced at MWSF (ie: potentially before ibook). just a rumor, so grain of salt as always...
Think about it: why would Apple want to upgrade the computers that sell the least first? -E
You said it, because they sell the least! The powerbook's sells are poor, because it's not powerful enough!
Moreover, i would say that the distinction between pro/consumer is odd for the laptops... what do you call "pro"? people who run their business with their computer? almost no powerbook users do that! how many "pro" really need the extra featues of a powerbook (comparing to the ibook) AND cannot work at home on a PM, which is much more powerful? The powermac is "pro", but the PB is just a beautiful laptop, not a pro-laptop. it is not powerful enough to be a real "pro" hardware, and event less efficient than the ibook...
No, really, the worst computer apple is selling now is the powerbook, so it needs a major update, and quickly, not in september!
You said it, because they sell the least! The powerbook's sells are poor, because it's not powerful enough!
Moreover, i would say that the distinction between pro/consumer is odd for the laptops... what do you call "pro"? people who run their business with their computer? almost no powerbook users do that!
I used to run a business from a laptop, and I know others who do the same. Just because they are not very fast doesn't stop then being fast enough.
how about all these apps we are "backing up" if i have two macs g3 g4 then i get a mactel, will my iphoto and appleworks, all those apps i bought for osx and on my backup hd work on my mactel???
just like with game consoles, it's the software, so when i bought my wife her ibook, i did so because it was rugged and came with lots of software--very usable out of the box--speed was secondary. i see the advantage of the pb's (from a consumers perspective--dvi out so i can use a separate monitor--speed--hmmmm. why would most "buyers" want to spend the extra $$$. that's why i think the ibook, mini will be first to be mactel--we don't have huge specialized apps to run, we want ease of use, free software,dvd burner and are less interested in all out speed--the toyota camery of computers. most consumers don't know or care about a hd that's 7200rpm vs 5400. price points. so what do pro's want??where is the market push from apple. is it safer to put intel in a consumer line first to test the waters or go all out with all laptops and mini going intel at the same time.
there is no business model for this type of transition, i feel apple is creating it's own model. they have made a lot of mistakes in the past to learn from---this transition must be seen as mission critical. where in the business world can they seek a model that works. when steve annouced this transition i'm sure the discussion just before was a strategy for transition that they have had to address. so much of what we are discussing has been planned for some time. has anything in the market place given them pause or perhaps needs of the buyers has changed. i think if we discuss this we might find an answer to much speculation.
how about all these apps we are "backing up" if i have two macs g3 g4 then i get a mactel, will my iphoto and appleworks, all those apps i bought for osx and on my backup hd work on my mactel???
If your apps run on a G3 Macintosh under OS X, it'll run on an Intel Macintosh through Rosetta emulation, unless there is an OS compatibility issue such as an app relying on a deprecated API, hackery, or something, but generally most PPC apps should run through Rosetta.
The apps that don't are likely the pro-level apps.
Quote:
there is no business model for this type of transition, i feel apple is creating it's own model. they have made a lot of mistakes in the past to learn from---this transition must be seen as mission critical. where in the business world can they seek a model that works
The transition will be like the Mac OS 9 to Mac OS X transition, but likely easier.
I used to run a business from a laptop, and I know others who do the same. Just because they are not very fast doesn't stop then being fast enough.
What i meant if that what you can do with a powerbook, you can do it with an ibook or with a powermac.
The PM is really a "pro" computer compared to the imac. Using a powermac allows you to get an enormous gain of productivity. but the powerbook is not so pro compared to the ibook... Which Pro application can you run on a powerbook that you cannot run on an ibook?
Really, the gap between the powerbook and the ibook is really small, and with an intel ibook it will be even smaller!
That's why I think that the powerbook and the ibook will be updated at the same time...
The transition will be like the Mac OS 9 to Mac OS X transition, but likely easier. [/B][/QUOTE]
ok--but they had bundled os 9 classic AND os 10 for a long time till they stopped booting os9 on recent units. so is that the role of rosetta?? and how slow will it be. but both os9 and 10 were operating under the same architecture. isn't the intel chips completely different from ppc?? so what other company has done this--a complete change in architecture and during a growing phase--lots to lose.
The PM is really a "pro" computer compared to the imac. Using a powermac allows you to get an enormous gain of productivity. but the powerbook is not so pro compared to the ibook... Which Pro application can you run on a powerbook that you cannot run on an ibook?
Really, the gap between the powerbook and the ibook is really small, and with an intel ibook it will be even smaller!
That's why I think that the powerbook and the ibook will be updated at the same time...
Yep you talk a lot of sense here.
However I still think more people run 'pro' apps on the powerbook line and so it'll more difficult for apple to transition these early unless there are plenty of 'pro' apps already on intel (possible). The risk with the consumer range is so much lower because most users won't be adding much software (if any) and won't really understand or care that it's running intel. The pro users will be more demanding and cautious.
Maybe they'll go super cheap / super low power with an intel ibook so it still doesn't outrun a PPC powerbook.
Alternatively, you're right that the current powerbook line needs turbocharging - the performance gap between desktop and mobile is far too big at the moment. Perhaps the current range of powerbooks are so far behind that they will be able to introduce an intel powerbook that is fast enough to be faster even running pro apps through rosetta. That would give people a reason to upgrade, put some differentiation back into the ibook / powerbook range and do some pre-hype on how fast the desktops are going to be.
lets look at the other world business laptops for pros--ibm thinkpad t43, x31 and dell 600--they are robust,great keyboard good battery life, finger print reader (ibm) and NOT THAT FAST. one of the top rated 12" (oops apple is dropping this) the x31 has an ultra low volt 1.13g but a 7 hour battery life, and industry leading keyboard. i think this distinction of "pro" and consumer may work less and less for apple. so basically how does apple compete, it needs a robust machine, sturdy, long battery life, great keyboard, fingerprint reader (pro line), great screen. maybe no more than 2.0g. so maybe it's the chassis , output options, keyboard, and "pro" look. so what does the pb offer that ibm(leveno) and dell don't---or maybe should say how are they equivalent. the big thing i guess to "pros" is keeping up with the jones on speed, chassis design, durability, and features. once intel there will be no speed difference. so it's chassis, sturdy, keyboard, and features, and they are upgraded more frequently. don't you think this change to intel will open the gates to much faster upgrades??
Comments
I think Apple is going to work hard to max the value of the dual cores before the Mactels come out. Freescale will eventually deliver their dual core G4 for the PB, allowing APple to wait 6 - 9 months before moving it to Intel. All PMs ship with the same motherboard so it's possible to provide a BTO option for a second processor in both of the lower ranges - and I think that would sell well. Adding a dual core G5 chip to the iMac, even if it on a BTO option only would work nicely around April. (Didn't Apple put in another air vent in the back and a new mb in the latest iMacs?)
I believe that Apple will offer some very attractive BTO options (and keep a few in the APple Stores), leaving most resellers left with the current configs.
To do this, we need to look at the following questions:
1. What group will buy the most Macs?
2. Which Mac will engage this group the most?
3. How do we tailor a Mac to meet these needs?
Apple has created a market for itself: the iPod. Or maybe more accurately put, Apple has produced a "gateway" product to intice more people to come to their brand. Every other kid and a lot adults now have some sort of iPod. The people who opted for another type of MP3 player are now realizing they made a mistake. (This might be one reason Apple keeps coming out with new and better iPods) This group now has confidence in the Apple brand. But if they have and iPod, then they must have some sort of computer. It is a safe bet that most owners of iPods are PC users now. They already bought the $599 Dell or whatever. Hey, they got a monitor, printer, and (gasp!) a digital camera with the deal. So this group likes their iPod the most out of all their gadgets because (surprise) it just works. Now these folks have an aging Dell desktop (aging meaning 18+ months old), and it has naturally begun to be slower and slower because of the nature of the XP Beast. They are tired of virii and crashes, and these people think they need a new, faster computer, and they're looking at Apple. They have the "extras" (keyboard, mouse, etc.), but the need the machine.
Apple created the Mac Mini just for this purpose. Once they convert it to an Intel, then the specs will be clear to those people who don't take the time to investigate what a G4 is. It will be easier to convert the masses. When this happens, there might be deals with big distributers like Best Buy, Circuit City, and others to ONLY carry the Mac Mini (with their iPods, of course). This would have a profound effect on sales for Apple. If a customer can compare Mac OS X and XP side by side, and look at the price, then I think customers will pick up the Mac mini over the Wintel Box when they see the integration of the iPod and the "coolness" of the Mac Mini. They are buying cool.
The next product will be the iBook, then the iMac. Then, finally (MWSF 2007?), the pro lines. Think about it: why would Apple want to upgrade the computers that sell the least first? That is unfortunate for power/pro users, but that is the nature of business.
As for this MWSF, there needs to be killer aps that will further intice switchers:
iWork '06:
Pages 2.0--Will do everything that most Word users need. Will include more templates for students (built-in MLA, APA, Chicago formats for papers, ability to create typical class projects [science labs, newsletters, flyer, etc.], the abililty to create good html web pages, on top of everything else.
"Numbers"?--Spreadsheet including built-in commonly used functions and integration with other apps.
Keynote 3.0--Better PowerPoint compatibilty and better graphics/effects.
iLife '06:
More and better of the same apps. There might be a couple of little apps like photobooth and FrontRow for the other Macs that will point further to home theatre integration. There will be announcements of more TV shows (CBS, NBC, and HBO) and possibly movies that will be available on iTunes. I think a $14.99 H.264 movie would go over well. I think this is where the video iPod is going. 50 Movies in your pocket? Apple might be looking to go to portable home entertainment along with integration (recreation?) of at-home entertainment with the HDTV/DTV mandate coming up. Also there could be a subscription service for video podcasts of programs like SportsCenter and different newscasts ($5/mo gets you daily video podcasts of SportsCenter, for example--you can watch while on the train or at work). I think we are seeing a new industry popping up. Ebooks will go by the way-side, and downloadable video podcasts of how-to videos will be on the rise.
Office '06 preview:
Won't be available for 8 months, but they will claim it will be available "soon."
NO Preview of new OS X. That will be WWDC, available Q3 2006.
Upgrade to iSight--better video quality and audio quality. Lower price.
One More thing...?
MWSF and the next couple of years will be very exciting, I think.
-E
Originally posted by eswank
we need to stop thinking about computer specs/performance ... Apple created the Mac Mini just for this purpose... then I think customers will pick up the Mac mini over the Wintel Box when they see the integration of the iPod and the "coolness" of the Mac Mini. They are buying cool.
The next product will be the iBook, then the iMac.
-E
Yep I agree it's the mac mini that will go first - the mini is sold as an out of the box computing solution and the specs are hardly mentioned. At the moment they aren't even mentioning the upgrade in processor speed - it's not really relevant to the market. I believe the message will be it's a great mac because it does all this great stuff, and oh it runs on intel now. Also I bet the average mini user doesn't add any more software on top of what comes in the box, so the switch will be irrelevant to these guys.
My other thought is that I remember reading somewhere that steve was frustrated at the need to launch products at the keynotes - it's obviously much easier and better to introduce products when it suits them during the year rather than have hit the big shows. I think the cancellation of the keynote in Paris and the series of announcements this Autumn was them trying that out. I wouldn't be at all suprised if we get similar treatment in January. I don't expect they'll go the whole hog and cancel the keynote, but I do expect it'll feature more talk about strategy and less new product introductions.
Originally posted by dilett
Yep I agree it's the mac mini that will go first ...
re: mac mini, macrumors posted a rumor today that intel mac mini might be announced at MWSF (ie: potentially before ibook). just a rumor, so grain of salt as always...
Originally posted by eswank
Think about it: why would Apple want to upgrade the computers that sell the least first? -E
You said it, because they sell the least! The powerbook's sells are poor, because it's not powerful enough!
Moreover, i would say that the distinction between pro/consumer is odd for the laptops... what do you call "pro"? people who run their business with their computer? almost no powerbook users do that! how many "pro" really need the extra featues of a powerbook (comparing to the ibook) AND cannot work at home on a PM, which is much more powerful? The powermac is "pro", but the PB is just a beautiful laptop, not a pro-laptop. it is not powerful enough to be a real "pro" hardware, and event less efficient than the ibook...
No, really, the worst computer apple is selling now is the powerbook, so it needs a major update, and quickly, not in september!
Originally posted by belzebuth
You said it, because they sell the least! The powerbook's sells are poor, because it's not powerful enough!
Moreover, i would say that the distinction between pro/consumer is odd for the laptops... what do you call "pro"? people who run their business with their computer? almost no powerbook users do that!
I used to run a business from a laptop, and I know others who do the same. Just because they are not very fast doesn't stop then being fast enough.
just like with game consoles, it's the software, so when i bought my wife her ibook, i did so because it was rugged and came with lots of software--very usable out of the box--speed was secondary. i see the advantage of the pb's (from a consumers perspective--dvi out so i can use a separate monitor--speed--hmmmm. why would most "buyers" want to spend the extra $$$. that's why i think the ibook, mini will be first to be mactel--we don't have huge specialized apps to run, we want ease of use, free software,dvd burner and are less interested in all out speed--the toyota camery of computers. most consumers don't know or care about a hd that's 7200rpm vs 5400. price points. so what do pro's want??where is the market push from apple. is it safer to put intel in a consumer line first to test the waters or go all out with all laptops and mini going intel at the same time.
there is no business model for this type of transition, i feel apple is creating it's own model. they have made a lot of mistakes in the past to learn from---this transition must be seen as mission critical. where in the business world can they seek a model that works. when steve annouced this transition i'm sure the discussion just before was a strategy for transition that they have had to address. so much of what we are discussing has been planned for some time. has anything in the market place given them pause or perhaps needs of the buyers has changed. i think if we discuss this we might find an answer to much speculation.
Originally posted by NOFEER
how about all these apps we are "backing up" if i have two macs g3 g4 then i get a mactel, will my iphoto and appleworks, all those apps i bought for osx and on my backup hd work on my mactel???
If your apps run on a G3 Macintosh under OS X, it'll run on an Intel Macintosh through Rosetta emulation, unless there is an OS compatibility issue such as an app relying on a deprecated API, hackery, or something, but generally most PPC apps should run through Rosetta.
The apps that don't are likely the pro-level apps.
there is no business model for this type of transition, i feel apple is creating it's own model. they have made a lot of mistakes in the past to learn from---this transition must be seen as mission critical. where in the business world can they seek a model that works
The transition will be like the Mac OS 9 to Mac OS X transition, but likely easier.
Originally posted by dilett
I used to run a business from a laptop, and I know others who do the same. Just because they are not very fast doesn't stop then being fast enough.
What i meant if that what you can do with a powerbook, you can do it with an ibook or with a powermac.
The PM is really a "pro" computer compared to the imac. Using a powermac allows you to get an enormous gain of productivity. but the powerbook is not so pro compared to the ibook... Which Pro application can you run on a powerbook that you cannot run on an ibook?
Really, the gap between the powerbook and the ibook is really small, and with an intel ibook it will be even smaller!
That's why I think that the powerbook and the ibook will be updated at the same time...
ok--but they had bundled os 9 classic AND os 10 for a long time till they stopped booting os9 on recent units. so is that the role of rosetta?? and how slow will it be. but both os9 and 10 were operating under the same architecture. isn't the intel chips completely different from ppc?? so what other company has done this--a complete change in architecture and during a growing phase--lots to lose.
Originally posted by belzebuth
The PM is really a "pro" computer compared to the imac. Using a powermac allows you to get an enormous gain of productivity. but the powerbook is not so pro compared to the ibook... Which Pro application can you run on a powerbook that you cannot run on an ibook?
Really, the gap between the powerbook and the ibook is really small, and with an intel ibook it will be even smaller!
That's why I think that the powerbook and the ibook will be updated at the same time...
Yep you talk a lot of sense here.
However I still think more people run 'pro' apps on the powerbook line and so it'll more difficult for apple to transition these early unless there are plenty of 'pro' apps already on intel (possible). The risk with the consumer range is so much lower because most users won't be adding much software (if any) and won't really understand or care that it's running intel. The pro users will be more demanding and cautious.
Maybe they'll go super cheap / super low power with an intel ibook so it still doesn't outrun a PPC powerbook.
Alternatively, you're right that the current powerbook line needs turbocharging - the performance gap between desktop and mobile is far too big at the moment. Perhaps the current range of powerbooks are so far behind that they will be able to introduce an intel powerbook that is fast enough to be faster even running pro apps through rosetta. That would give people a reason to upgrade, put some differentiation back into the ibook / powerbook range and do some pre-hype on how fast the desktops are going to be.
Interesting times!
Originally posted by THT
The transition will be like the Mac OS 9 to Mac OS X transition, but likely easier.
Very likely much easier. Most users won't notice a thing when upgrading their Mac to a new Intel based one.