Your arguement is predicated on the DVR market being successful. Which is not at all.
Those two sentences together make no sense.
But I am assuming that your argument is that DVR is not popular. I'd like to see some stats on this because your argument defies common sense and market realities.
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Only a small portion of the Windows user base knows that Media Center even exists and even smaller portion actually uses it. The truth is that Media Center hasn't made a profit in 3 years.
Where do you get this idea that "Media Center hasn't made a profit"? What does it even mean?
It's just part of Windows. Are you saying that Windows hasn't been profitable?
Yea, MCE is just a program that runs on a registry tweaked version of XP Pro.
So you get XP Pro + MCE for cheaper then XP Pro itself. MCE's only dowfall was that until this year, you could only get MCE on packaged systems. I would expect greater usage figures now that you can buy OEM full versions for $129 online.
You know what's funny though? People expecting Microsoft to rewrite Windows, while claiming Apple did the same with OS X.
I think it's fair to say that Apple planned it's transition to OSX faaar better than Microsoft's move to Longhorn. Did you read Longhorns original feature set? They tried to do 10X what Apple did with 1/3 of the time. Next spent close to a decade on Nextstep, and Apple has been working on it for 6-7 years now.
So Microsoft painted themselves into a corner with their bastard OS's - who's fault is that?
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OS X is a big mix of code others have created, code NeXT brought, and code Apple has created (Aqua, AppleScript, etc). To suggest that Apple 'rewrote' OS9 and created OSX and that Microsoft should do the same is... forget it. [/B]
IIRC, Apple bought next and it's engineers, and ended up re-writting much of the code.
Your arguement is predicated on the DVR market being successful. Which is not at all.
Those two sentences together make no sense.
But I am assuming that your argument is that DVR is not popular. I'd like to see some stats on this because your argument defies common sense and market realities.
"The estimates are today that roughly about 8 to 9 million homes have TiVo or other forms of DVR in them today,"
Tom Rogers CEO of Tivo
There are nearly 300 million people in the United States. 8-9 million people have Tivo or other forms of DVR. Do you look at those numbers and consider the DVR market successful?
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Where do you get this idea that "Media Center hasn't made a profit"? What does it even mean?
"So far, the product has mainly been a slow-selling sideline to Microsoft's main Windows business -- what another Microsoft manager calls "a shiny new toy," rather than core business for the company."
The Wall Street Journal.
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It's just part of Windows. Are you saying that Windows hasn't been profitable?
"Windows XP Media Center Edition (XP MCE) is distinguished from other versions of Windows XP by an exclusive preinstalled application.Due to strict hardware requirements, Microsoft has opted not to sell Media Center as an independent retail version. Microsoft only distributes it to MSDN subscribers and OEM System Builders in certain countries. Consumers generally purchase Media Center preinstalled on a new computer, or from a reseller that sells OEM versions of Microsoft software."
"A year ago, Microsoft relaxed Media Center specifications that included a requirement for a TV tuner, thereby allowing PC makers to roll out inexpensive versions and boost sales. Thanks to those changes, says Bruce Greenwood, a director at Hewlett-Packard Co.'s PC group, "the mix of PCs available and sold out there with Media Center increased dramatically in 2005." Sales since the product's birth have hit 6.5 million copies, most of which were sold in the past six months."
The Wall Street Journal
"Media Center PCs have failed to set the market alight, largely because it's a product in search of a demographic."
The Register
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Yea, MCE is just a program that runs on a registry tweaked version of XP Pro.
So you get XP Pro + MCE for cheaper then XP Pro itself. MCE's only dowfall was that until this year, you could only get MCE on packaged systems. I would expect greater usage figures now that you can buy OEM full versions for $129 online.
"MCE 2005 will likely be much more successful in terms of adoption than its predecessors; Microsoft's decision to unbundle sales of MCE from new systems ensures that."
Arstechnica
Microsoft has only begun to sell Media Center to the general public and not through OEM's. For most of its time you could only buy it from a Media Center OEM.
Media Center has only sold to about 6.5 million of all Windows XP systems. That's 6.5 million out of around 900 million Windows systems. Looking at these numbers would you call Media Center successful?
DVR market penetration is anywhere from 6-10% at this point. There are zero reliable figures, but that seems to be the consensus.
Realistically, DVR technology has a higher market penetration than the Mac. And this isn't even close to being a saturated market yet, even the most pessimistic of sources about DVR penetration say it's a big growth area. Macintosh... no one thinks that's going to grow significantly.
So it's not the biggest fish in the bowl, but it's bigger than the Macintosh fish.
There are 900 million Windows systems (I am assuming that you mean in the world) and only 6.5 million shipped with MCE. The trick with these numbers is that you're talking about all Windows systems and MCE has only been available to consumers as a stand-alone product for less than a year.
And MCE is about to be an integrated part of Windows.
The Internet TV market hasn't even started yet. It's not in its infancy yet, mommy and daddy haven't even turned on the Barry White CD.
By the time people figure out (in large numbers) the whole "hey let's connect our computer to our TV" thing Microsoft will have a mature product built right into the OS 90+% of consumers use.
Apple is uniquely good at taking a functionality and "perfecting" it and making it attractive. They can do that for this market with relatively little work. They don't even have to put 1/10th the work into it that they put into the iPod. But they are not, and it is a mystery.
DVR market penetration is anywhere from 6-10% at this point. There are zero reliable figures, but that seems to be the consensus.
I quoted you numbers from the CEO of Tivo. I would not call that zero reliable figures. He knows how many Tivo boxes have been sold and he knows how many people use the service. And without a doubt keeps informed of how many consumers are buying service from his competitors.
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DVR technology has a higher market penetration than the Mac.
Microwave ovens have a higher maket penetration than the Mac. What does one have to do with the other?
The Macintosh is very profitable for Apple. Media Center is not overly profitable for Microsoft. Tivo boxes have not been extraordinarily profitable for Tivo.
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The trick with these numbers is that you're talking about all Windows systems and MCE has only been available to consumers as a stand-alone product for less than a year.
MCE has been on the market for nearly four years and did not sell very well. MS lowered the hardware requirements for OEM computers. So at this point if you buy any Dell desktop that costs over $500 it comes bundled with MCE. Along with MS selling MCE as software.
Most people buying Media Center bundled computers have no idea what do with it and don't use it. Because of this actual Media Center use has only marginally risen.
Because MCE has not sold well as optional software the next tactic MS will use is bundling it into Vista with the hope people will actually begin to use it.
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By the time people figure out (in large numbers) the whole "hey let's connect our computer to our TV" thing Microsoft will have a mature product built right into the OS 90+% of consumers use.
"I recently spoke to a fairly tech-savvy gentleman at MTV who told me he has a Windows Media Center PC, but he?s ?not sure what it?s supposed to do.? Like most of us, he watches TV in the room where the TV is and uses the computer where he works. And he prefers to keep it that way."
"Now, in the interest of full disclosure, I should mention I?ve done some work for a PR agency that promoted Windows Media Center PCs and digital entertainment devices. But honestly, I never bought the BS, particularly after I tried to connect one to the TV in my bedroom. After 10 hours of configuring and cursing, and cursing and re-configuring, I finally got it to work with an LCD monitor I had sitting around the house. Alas, after a month of sitting on the TV cabinet, I took it downstairs, where it?s currently being used as a very expensive doorstop."
Brian L Clark writer for The Tech Enthusiast Network
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Apple is uniquely good at taking a functionality and "perfecting" it and making it attractive. They can do that for this market with relatively little work. They don't even have to put 1/10th the work into it that they put into the iPod. But they are not, and it is a mystery.
Its no mystery Apple can look at the market and see at this point there isn't much profit from it.
DVR is such a growth industry that Tivo is giving its boxes away in the hopes that people will pay to use its service.
Apple may market a DVR. None of us really know. My guess would be that Apple is waiting to see if consumers begin to adopt the DVR in mass and it actually becomes a profitable market.
I quoted you numbers from the CEO of Tivo. I would not call that zero reliable figures. He knows how many Tivo boxes have been sold and he knows how many people use the service. And without a doubt keeps informed of how many consumers are buying service from his competitors.
He doesn't actually have many competitors. I'd say most people get their DVRs from their cable companies, not from a Best Buy shelf.
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Media Center is not overly profitable for Microsoft.
Ah, wonderful. We've gone from "hasn't made a profit in 3 years" to "not overly profitable".
MCE is a part of WindowsXP. And WindowsXP has been very profitable.
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Most people buying Media Center bundled computers have no idea what do with it and don't use it. Because of this actual Media Center use has only marginally risen.
Do you have any numbers on this?
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Because MCE has not sold well as optional software the next tactic MS will use is bundling it into Vista with the hope people will actually begin to use it.
Where can I buy MCE as a standalone application?
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Brian L Clark writer for The Tech Enthusiast Network
Anecdotal evidence is the best kind of evidence!
10 hours? I bet he's not exaggerating at all!
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DVR is such a growth industry that Tivo is giving its boxes away in the hopes that people will pay to use its service.
TiVO is an entirely different animal.
WinMCE is merely an application bundled with a full-fledged operating system.
Microsoft writes it once and sells it a million times.
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Apple may market a DVR. None of us really know. My guess would be that Apple is waiting to see if consumers begin to adopt the DVR in mass and it actually becomes a profitable market.
A DVR? Who says they have to market "a DVR"? Just some DVR software in a Mac mini will be fine. Or a Mac Small with one PCIExpress slot for a tuner expansion card. Not exactly brain surgery and not very cost intensive.
You must be feigning stupidity. That's the only way I can rationalize it. Either that, or you think real-life seniority applies on the internet. Treat me with respect and I'll treat you with respect; a five-year spread in age doesn't justify you disrespecting me.
Okay, now you're hinting that I'm stupid. And from what I was taught, respect is earned. With that, this conversation has ended.
Just as you were clearly saying (not even hinting) that all Windows-using people are "mindless drones" (or something to that effect, which, in my opinion, is a little worse than hinting someone's stupid).
When people called you on it, you claimed you had the right to have an opinion. Please provide the same right to Placebo as well.
I didn't mean the drone term in a threatning manner. I just know that's how I personally felt as a once Windows user. Microsoft has that affect on people, it did me. I didn't even fully realize the fact that I had other choices until five years ago. Mindless? That'd be like calling me mindless too. He can have his opinion, but I no longer wish to pursue this silly spat any further; it's worn thin on me.
Call me old-fashioned, but yes, I was raised to acknowledge seniority, Internet or not, but it's no matter now, I wish to leave this young man be; we obviously don't see eye to eye, so I'll give him his space.
"The estimates are today that roughly about 8 to 9 million homes have TiVo or other forms of DVR in them today,"
Tom Rogers CEO of Tivo
There are nearly 300 million people in the United States. 8-9 million people have Tivo or other forms of DVR. Do you look at those numbers and consider the DVR market successful?
You are not comparing like with like. Number of people does not equal number of households. There are 8 to 9 million households in the U.S. with Tivo. You also fail to mention how many households have DVRs that are not Tivos.
You are also failing to appreciate the "media center" growth potential. Here in the U.K., at least, "media center" PCs are only just starting to get media attention outside of PC magazines. There is now a lot of interest from HiFi and Home Cinema people. Why? Because only now is the hardware starting to live up to the promise. Windows Media Center came before its time, and that's why it hasn't done amazingly well yet. Trust me, this market is going to get a lot bigger.
I didn't mean the drone term in a threatning manner. I just know that's how I personally felt as a once Windows user. Microsoft has that affect on people, it did me. I didn't even fully realize the fact that I had other choices until five years ago. Mindless? That'd be like calling me mindless too. He can have his opinion, but I no longer wish to pursue this silly spat any further; it's worn thin on me.
Call me old-fashioned, but yes, I was raised to acknowledge seniority, Internet or not, but it's no matter now, I wish to leave this young man be; we obviously don't see eye to eye, so I'll give him his space.
People should have an open mind in both directions. I'm just playing Devil's Advocate every now and then to keep it real around here. Mac users tend to get obssessed and rhetorical, and let Apple have their opinions. Who here is still sore about the Intel switch? Not many people. Who hated John Dvorak for advocating and predicting such a switch? Practically everyone. But once Apple deems it beneficial and the new, great thing, their userbase comes to like it rather... quickly.
The people you knew were probably using Windows because they weren't really that interested in their computing experience, and while there are many happy converts from Windows, there are also many intelligent Windows users who use Windows either by informed preference or because their work brings them to use programs that only function on the Windows platform. I'm not a hater - I love the Mac, and I recognize that it, just as Windows, has its flaws.
The majority of MCE boxes are sold without Tuners, so they are obviously not being used as intended. By all accounts MCE has been an utter failure.
That's wrong because MCE has many purposes, and watching TV is but one of them. Take the TV out, and you have something similar too, but much snappier and beefier than, Front Row.
Has Front Row been an utter failure? If so, MCE has been too. If not, then, we agree.
Placebo, while I agree that many Apple fans are *way* too eager to drink the Kool-Aid, I don't see how you're 'keeping it real' with the Intel switch example. At the time that Dvorak was beating the drum, it would have been a stupid *stupid* move. The Intel chips simply were not as capable or power-efficient as the PPC chips. Then things changed. It's not that the Apple user base (well, not all) blindly followed the Jobsian train, but that the technology itself changed. Two years ago, given the state of the CPUs, an Intel switch would have been idiotic. Now, with the Core architecture, it makes much more sense. Dvorak was still wrong, because of the *timing*.
The tech shifted to make the switch reasonable. That's what I, and many others, realize. Without that, it would have still been a major mistake.
groverat: MCE has *one* distinguishing feature over FrontRow: DVR. Without that, it's 'just FrontRow'. If few of that 6.5million are using that capability, (and I believe that few are,) then MCE is, for all intents and purposes, being used *AS* FrontRow, yes? In which case, for all those non-DVR-usin' users, FrontRow would be a perfectly viable option, right?
Of all the DVR owners I know, none use MCE. Tivo, yes. Cable company boxes, yes. Linux + MythTV, many. MCE? Not a one. And honestly, compared to the number of TV viewers I know, the DVR owners are miniscule.
Tivo has been skirting with financial trouble. Cable companies are switching to on-demand access. The traditional network/advertising model is starting to crumble. My prediction? In five years, most digital television will be viewed on-demand, with DVRs being a fading memory. You'll get the convenience of a DVR, without the DVR. Will there still be a market for them? Sure. But it will be shrinking. I'd love to have a Mac DVR now... but I also am unsure that it would make good business sense over the next couple of years. Solutions exist now for Mac users that let them meet their own needs. I don't see the issue with that.
A corollary to the on-demand shift that I see as inevitable: selling video online suddenly becomes a lot more mainstream.
He doesn't actually have many competitors. I'd say most people get their DVRs from their cable companies, not from a Best Buy shelf.
Well if someone rents a DVR from a cable company that performs the same function of a Tivo. This option will prevent that potential customer from buying a Tivo and paying for their service. That is the very definiton of a competitor.
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Ah, wonderful. We've gone from "hasn't made a profit in 3 years" to "not overly profitable".
Alright let say this. Since we don't know how much it cost MS to develop MCE. Lets say selling 6.5 million copies they have recouped their initial investment. For a company as large as MS to really have a hit they need to sell in extremely large volume as in the hundreds of millions. 6.5 million will not have much positive impact on their bottom line or on their stock price.
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MCE is a part of WindowsXP. And WindowsXP has been very profitable.
No MCE is an XP version. Hundreds of millions of copies of XP have been sold without MCE.
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Most people buying Media Center bundled computers have no idea what do with it and don't use it. Because of this actual Media Center use has only marginally risen.
Do you have any numbers on this?
I've given you plenty of numbers and quotes from other sources that support what I've said. You've given nothing but your opinion. Give me some numbers or quotes that support your arguement.
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Because MCE has not sold well as optional software the next tactic MS will use is bundling it into Vista with the hope people will actually begin to use it.
Where can I buy MCE as a standalone application?
MS first business model for MCE was to sell it only through OEM on specialized hardware. The consumer had to choose to buy this specialized hardware to use MCE. This is the optional part. Very few people opted to buy it.
Given a choice very few consumers chose to buy MCE so MS lowered the hardware requirements for MCE so that HP and Dell could bundle the software in $500 dollar computers. Now Dell sells MCE on nearly every computer they make, whether the consumer wants it or not.
Lowering the choice even further MS will now bundle MCE right into Vista. Hoping consumers will discover this new functionality and begin using it.
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Anecdotal evidence is the best kind of evidence!
10 hours? I bet he's not exaggerating at all!
He may have been exaggerating his point, but his story is not the only one of how difficult MCE can be to set up.
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TiVO is an entirely different animal.
WinMCE is merely an application bundled with a full-fledged operating system.
One is hardware based and the other is software based but they both perform many of the same functions. They have enough over lap that it is very unlikely that one house hold would have an MCE and Tivo.
Both of these products can be judged equally in the DVR market and up to this point neither product has been met with any extreme demand.
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A DVR? Who says they have to market "a DVR"? Just some DVR software in a Mac mini will be fine. Or a Mac Small with one PCIExpress slot for a tuner expansion card. Not exactly brain surgery and not very cost intensive.
Its unlikely Apple would just create software that could turn any Mac into a DVR. Looking at MCE the set up process is too cumbersome and involved. Apple would want you to plug your television into their hardware and it just works. Much the way a Tivo does.
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You are not comparing like with like. Number of people does not equal number of households. There are 8 to 9 million households in the U.S. with Tivo. You also fail to mention how many households have DVRs that are not Tivos.
Ok, their are estimated to be 109 million households in the United States. According to Tom Rogers CEO of Tivo 8-9 million households have a DVR. Which for an entire consumer product is still a very small number.
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You are also failing to appreciate the "media center" growth potential. Here in the U.K., at least, "media center" PCs are only just starting to get media attention outside of PC magazines. There is now a lot of interest from HiFi and Home Cinema people. Why? Because only now is the hardware starting to live up to the promise. Windows Media Center came before its time, and that's why it hasn't done amazingly well yet. Trust me, this market is going to get a lot bigger.
Of course there is growth potential. I've never said that DVR's won't grow in the future. I'm talking about the present. At present there is lackluster consumer demand for DVR's. Even more lackluster for computer based Media Centers.
My personal estimate is people won't be too excited about MCE. After the average Joe/Jane have spent a long hard day at work with Windows machines. They want to come home during leisure time and have to deal with a Windows machine hooked to their television.
Well, maybe for upgrade pricing $250USD would work. Right now a non-upgrade of XP Pro retails at $299.99. Ultimate is supposed to be even more expensive.
Also keep in mind that so far Mac users have been spending $129 a year keeping up with the Mac OS X upgrade scheme, although I suspect that Apple will have one definitive release of Leopard near when Longhorn comes out and the upgrade cycle will slow down after that.
Comments
Your arguement is predicated on the DVR market being successful. Which is not at all.
Those two sentences together make no sense.
But I am assuming that your argument is that DVR is not popular. I'd like to see some stats on this because your argument defies common sense and market realities.
Only a small portion of the Windows user base knows that Media Center even exists and even smaller portion actually uses it. The truth is that Media Center hasn't made a profit in 3 years.
Where do you get this idea that "Media Center hasn't made a profit"? What does it even mean?
It's just part of Windows. Are you saying that Windows hasn't been profitable?
So you get XP Pro + MCE for cheaper then XP Pro itself. MCE's only dowfall was that until this year, you could only get MCE on packaged systems. I would expect greater usage figures now that you can buy OEM full versions for $129 online.
Originally posted by Gene Clean
You know what's funny though? People expecting Microsoft to rewrite Windows, while claiming Apple did the same with OS X.
I think it's fair to say that Apple planned it's transition to OSX faaar better than Microsoft's move to Longhorn. Did you read Longhorns original feature set? They tried to do 10X what Apple did with 1/3 of the time. Next spent close to a decade on Nextstep, and Apple has been working on it for 6-7 years now.
So Microsoft painted themselves into a corner with their bastard OS's - who's fault is that?
OS X is a big mix of code others have created, code NeXT brought, and code Apple has created (Aqua, AppleScript, etc). To suggest that Apple 'rewrote' OS9 and created OSX and that Microsoft should do the same is... forget it. [/B]
IIRC, Apple bought next and it's engineers, and ended up re-writting much of the code.
Your arguement is predicated on the DVR market being successful. Which is not at all.
Those two sentences together make no sense.
But I am assuming that your argument is that DVR is not popular. I'd like to see some stats on this because your argument defies common sense and market realities.
"The estimates are today that roughly about 8 to 9 million homes have TiVo or other forms of DVR in them today,"
Tom Rogers CEO of Tivo
There are nearly 300 million people in the United States. 8-9 million people have Tivo or other forms of DVR. Do you look at those numbers and consider the DVR market successful?
Where do you get this idea that "Media Center hasn't made a profit"? What does it even mean?
"So far, the product has mainly been a slow-selling sideline to Microsoft's main Windows business -- what another Microsoft manager calls "a shiny new toy," rather than core business for the company."
The Wall Street Journal.
It's just part of Windows. Are you saying that Windows hasn't been profitable?
"Windows XP Media Center Edition (XP MCE) is distinguished from other versions of Windows XP by an exclusive preinstalled application.Due to strict hardware requirements, Microsoft has opted not to sell Media Center as an independent retail version. Microsoft only distributes it to MSDN subscribers and OEM System Builders in certain countries. Consumers generally purchase Media Center preinstalled on a new computer, or from a reseller that sells OEM versions of Microsoft software."
"A year ago, Microsoft relaxed Media Center specifications that included a requirement for a TV tuner, thereby allowing PC makers to roll out inexpensive versions and boost sales. Thanks to those changes, says Bruce Greenwood, a director at Hewlett-Packard Co.'s PC group, "the mix of PCs available and sold out there with Media Center increased dramatically in 2005." Sales since the product's birth have hit 6.5 million copies, most of which were sold in the past six months."
The Wall Street Journal
"Media Center PCs have failed to set the market alight, largely because it's a product in search of a demographic."
The Register
Yea, MCE is just a program that runs on a registry tweaked version of XP Pro.
So you get XP Pro + MCE for cheaper then XP Pro itself. MCE's only dowfall was that until this year, you could only get MCE on packaged systems. I would expect greater usage figures now that you can buy OEM full versions for $129 online.
"MCE 2005 will likely be much more successful in terms of adoption than its predecessors; Microsoft's decision to unbundle sales of MCE from new systems ensures that."
Arstechnica
Microsoft has only begun to sell Media Center to the general public and not through OEM's. For most of its time you could only buy it from a Media Center OEM.
Media Center has only sold to about 6.5 million of all Windows XP systems. That's 6.5 million out of around 900 million Windows systems. Looking at these numbers would you call Media Center successful?
DVR market penetration is anywhere from 6-10% at this point. There are zero reliable figures, but that seems to be the consensus.
Realistically, DVR technology has a higher market penetration than the Mac. And this isn't even close to being a saturated market yet, even the most pessimistic of sources about DVR penetration say it's a big growth area. Macintosh... no one thinks that's going to grow significantly.
So it's not the biggest fish in the bowl, but it's bigger than the Macintosh fish.
There are 900 million Windows systems (I am assuming that you mean in the world) and only 6.5 million shipped with MCE. The trick with these numbers is that you're talking about all Windows systems and MCE has only been available to consumers as a stand-alone product for less than a year.
And MCE is about to be an integrated part of Windows.
The Internet TV market hasn't even started yet. It's not in its infancy yet, mommy and daddy haven't even turned on the Barry White CD.
By the time people figure out (in large numbers) the whole "hey let's connect our computer to our TV" thing Microsoft will have a mature product built right into the OS 90+% of consumers use.
Apple is uniquely good at taking a functionality and "perfecting" it and making it attractive. They can do that for this market with relatively little work. They don't even have to put 1/10th the work into it that they put into the iPod. But they are not, and it is a mystery.
DVR market penetration is anywhere from 6-10% at this point. There are zero reliable figures, but that seems to be the consensus.
I quoted you numbers from the CEO of Tivo. I would not call that zero reliable figures. He knows how many Tivo boxes have been sold and he knows how many people use the service. And without a doubt keeps informed of how many consumers are buying service from his competitors.
DVR technology has a higher market penetration than the Mac.
Microwave ovens have a higher maket penetration than the Mac. What does one have to do with the other?
The Macintosh is very profitable for Apple. Media Center is not overly profitable for Microsoft. Tivo boxes have not been extraordinarily profitable for Tivo.
The trick with these numbers is that you're talking about all Windows systems and MCE has only been available to consumers as a stand-alone product for less than a year.
MCE has been on the market for nearly four years and did not sell very well. MS lowered the hardware requirements for OEM computers. So at this point if you buy any Dell desktop that costs over $500 it comes bundled with MCE. Along with MS selling MCE as software.
Most people buying Media Center bundled computers have no idea what do with it and don't use it. Because of this actual Media Center use has only marginally risen.
Because MCE has not sold well as optional software the next tactic MS will use is bundling it into Vista with the hope people will actually begin to use it.
By the time people figure out (in large numbers) the whole "hey let's connect our computer to our TV" thing Microsoft will have a mature product built right into the OS 90+% of consumers use.
"I recently spoke to a fairly tech-savvy gentleman at MTV who told me he has a Windows Media Center PC, but he?s ?not sure what it?s supposed to do.? Like most of us, he watches TV in the room where the TV is and uses the computer where he works. And he prefers to keep it that way."
"Now, in the interest of full disclosure, I should mention I?ve done some work for a PR agency that promoted Windows Media Center PCs and digital entertainment devices. But honestly, I never bought the BS, particularly after I tried to connect one to the TV in my bedroom. After 10 hours of configuring and cursing, and cursing and re-configuring, I finally got it to work with an LCD monitor I had sitting around the house. Alas, after a month of sitting on the TV cabinet, I took it downstairs, where it?s currently being used as a very expensive doorstop."
Brian L Clark writer for The Tech Enthusiast Network
Apple is uniquely good at taking a functionality and "perfecting" it and making it attractive. They can do that for this market with relatively little work. They don't even have to put 1/10th the work into it that they put into the iPod. But they are not, and it is a mystery.
Its no mystery Apple can look at the market and see at this point there isn't much profit from it.
DVR is such a growth industry that Tivo is giving its boxes away in the hopes that people will pay to use its service.
Apple may market a DVR. None of us really know. My guess would be that Apple is waiting to see if consumers begin to adopt the DVR in mass and it actually becomes a profitable market.
Originally posted by TenoBell
I quoted you numbers from the CEO of Tivo. I would not call that zero reliable figures. He knows how many Tivo boxes have been sold and he knows how many people use the service. And without a doubt keeps informed of how many consumers are buying service from his competitors.
He doesn't actually have many competitors. I'd say most people get their DVRs from their cable companies, not from a Best Buy shelf.
Media Center is not overly profitable for Microsoft.
Ah, wonderful. We've gone from "hasn't made a profit in 3 years" to "not overly profitable".
MCE is a part of WindowsXP. And WindowsXP has been very profitable.
Most people buying Media Center bundled computers have no idea what do with it and don't use it. Because of this actual Media Center use has only marginally risen.
Do you have any numbers on this?
Because MCE has not sold well as optional software the next tactic MS will use is bundling it into Vista with the hope people will actually begin to use it.
Where can I buy MCE as a standalone application?
Brian L Clark writer for The Tech Enthusiast Network
Anecdotal evidence is the best kind of evidence!
10 hours? I bet he's not exaggerating at all!
DVR is such a growth industry that Tivo is giving its boxes away in the hopes that people will pay to use its service.
TiVO is an entirely different animal.
WinMCE is merely an application bundled with a full-fledged operating system.
Microsoft writes it once and sells it a million times.
Apple may market a DVR. None of us really know. My guess would be that Apple is waiting to see if consumers begin to adopt the DVR in mass and it actually becomes a profitable market.
A DVR? Who says they have to market "a DVR"? Just some DVR software in a Mac mini will be fine. Or a Mac Small with one PCIExpress slot for a tuner expansion card. Not exactly brain surgery and not very cost intensive.
It's only software.
Originally posted by Placebo
You must be feigning stupidity. That's the only way I can rationalize it. Either that, or you think real-life seniority applies on the internet. Treat me with respect and I'll treat you with respect; a five-year spread in age doesn't justify you disrespecting me.
Okay, now you're hinting that I'm stupid. And from what I was taught, respect is earned. With that, this conversation has ended.
Gentlemen, resume your discussion..
Originally posted by Mac_Doll
Okay, now you're hinting that I'm stupid.
Just as you were clearly saying (not even hinting) that all Windows-using people are "mindless drones" (or something to that effect, which, in my opinion, is a little worse than hinting someone's stupid).
When people called you on it, you claimed you had the right to have an opinion. Please provide the same right to Placebo as well.
Call me old-fashioned, but yes, I was raised to acknowledge seniority, Internet or not, but it's no matter now, I wish to leave this young man be; we obviously don't see eye to eye, so I'll give him his space.
Originally posted by TenoBell
"The estimates are today that roughly about 8 to 9 million homes have TiVo or other forms of DVR in them today,"
Tom Rogers CEO of Tivo
There are nearly 300 million people in the United States. 8-9 million people have Tivo or other forms of DVR. Do you look at those numbers and consider the DVR market successful?
You are not comparing like with like. Number of people does not equal number of households. There are 8 to 9 million households in the U.S. with Tivo. You also fail to mention how many households have DVRs that are not Tivos.
You are also failing to appreciate the "media center" growth potential. Here in the U.K., at least, "media center" PCs are only just starting to get media attention outside of PC magazines. There is now a lot of interest from HiFi and Home Cinema people. Why? Because only now is the hardware starting to live up to the promise. Windows Media Center came before its time, and that's why it hasn't done amazingly well yet. Trust me, this market is going to get a lot bigger.
Originally posted by Mac_Doll
I didn't mean the drone term in a threatning manner. I just know that's how I personally felt as a once Windows user. Microsoft has that affect on people, it did me. I didn't even fully realize the fact that I had other choices until five years ago. Mindless? That'd be like calling me mindless too. He can have his opinion, but I no longer wish to pursue this silly spat any further; it's worn thin on me.
Call me old-fashioned, but yes, I was raised to acknowledge seniority, Internet or not, but it's no matter now, I wish to leave this young man be; we obviously don't see eye to eye, so I'll give him his space.
People should have an open mind in both directions. I'm just playing Devil's Advocate every now and then to keep it real around here. Mac users tend to get obssessed and rhetorical, and let Apple have their opinions. Who here is still sore about the Intel switch? Not many people. Who hated John Dvorak for advocating and predicting such a switch? Practically everyone. But once Apple deems it beneficial and the new, great thing, their userbase comes to like it rather... quickly.
The people you knew were probably using Windows because they weren't really that interested in their computing experience, and while there are many happy converts from Windows, there are also many intelligent Windows users who use Windows either by informed preference or because their work brings them to use programs that only function on the Windows platform. I'm not a hater - I love the Mac, and I recognize that it, just as Windows, has its flaws.
Originally posted by groverat
MCE is a part of WindowsXP. And WindowsXP has been very profitable.
[/B]
The majority of MCE boxes are sold without Tuners, so they are obviously not being used as intended. By all accounts MCE has been an utter failure.
Originally posted by the cool gut
The majority of MCE boxes are sold without Tuners, so they are obviously not being used as intended. By all accounts MCE has been an utter failure.
That's wrong because MCE has many purposes, and watching TV is but one of them. Take the TV out, and you have something similar too, but much snappier and beefier than, Front Row.
Has Front Row been an utter failure? If so, MCE has been too. If not, then, we agree.
The tech shifted to make the switch reasonable. That's what I, and many others, realize. Without that, it would have still been a major mistake.
groverat: MCE has *one* distinguishing feature over FrontRow: DVR. Without that, it's 'just FrontRow'. If few of that 6.5million are using that capability, (and I believe that few are,) then MCE is, for all intents and purposes, being used *AS* FrontRow, yes? In which case, for all those non-DVR-usin' users, FrontRow would be a perfectly viable option, right?
Of all the DVR owners I know, none use MCE. Tivo, yes. Cable company boxes, yes. Linux + MythTV, many. MCE? Not a one. And honestly, compared to the number of TV viewers I know, the DVR owners are miniscule.
Tivo has been skirting with financial trouble. Cable companies are switching to on-demand access. The traditional network/advertising model is starting to crumble. My prediction? In five years, most digital television will be viewed on-demand, with DVRs being a fading memory. You'll get the convenience of a DVR, without the DVR. Will there still be a market for them? Sure. But it will be shrinking. I'd love to have a Mac DVR now... but I also am unsure that it would make good business sense over the next couple of years. Solutions exist now for Mac users that let them meet their own needs. I don't see the issue with that.
A corollary to the on-demand shift that I see as inevitable: selling video online suddenly becomes a lot more mainstream.
He doesn't actually have many competitors. I'd say most people get their DVRs from their cable companies, not from a Best Buy shelf.
Well if someone rents a DVR from a cable company that performs the same function of a Tivo. This option will prevent that potential customer from buying a Tivo and paying for their service. That is the very definiton of a competitor.
Ah, wonderful. We've gone from "hasn't made a profit in 3 years" to "not overly profitable".
Alright let say this. Since we don't know how much it cost MS to develop MCE. Lets say selling 6.5 million copies they have recouped their initial investment. For a company as large as MS to really have a hit they need to sell in extremely large volume as in the hundreds of millions. 6.5 million will not have much positive impact on their bottom line or on their stock price.
MCE is a part of WindowsXP. And WindowsXP has been very profitable.
No MCE is an XP version. Hundreds of millions of copies of XP have been sold without MCE.
Most people buying Media Center bundled computers have no idea what do with it and don't use it. Because of this actual Media Center use has only marginally risen.
Do you have any numbers on this?
I've given you plenty of numbers and quotes from other sources that support what I've said. You've given nothing but your opinion. Give me some numbers or quotes that support your arguement.
Because MCE has not sold well as optional software the next tactic MS will use is bundling it into Vista with the hope people will actually begin to use it.
Where can I buy MCE as a standalone application?
MS first business model for MCE was to sell it only through OEM on specialized hardware. The consumer had to choose to buy this specialized hardware to use MCE. This is the optional part. Very few people opted to buy it.
Given a choice very few consumers chose to buy MCE so MS lowered the hardware requirements for MCE so that HP and Dell could bundle the software in $500 dollar computers. Now Dell sells MCE on nearly every computer they make, whether the consumer wants it or not.
Lowering the choice even further MS will now bundle MCE right into Vista. Hoping consumers will discover this new functionality and begin using it.
Anecdotal evidence is the best kind of evidence!
10 hours? I bet he's not exaggerating at all!
He may have been exaggerating his point, but his story is not the only one of how difficult MCE can be to set up.
TiVO is an entirely different animal.
WinMCE is merely an application bundled with a full-fledged operating system.
One is hardware based and the other is software based but they both perform many of the same functions. They have enough over lap that it is very unlikely that one house hold would have an MCE and Tivo.
Both of these products can be judged equally in the DVR market and up to this point neither product has been met with any extreme demand.
A DVR? Who says they have to market "a DVR"? Just some DVR software in a Mac mini will be fine. Or a Mac Small with one PCIExpress slot for a tuner expansion card. Not exactly brain surgery and not very cost intensive.
Its unlikely Apple would just create software that could turn any Mac into a DVR. Looking at MCE the set up process is too cumbersome and involved. Apple would want you to plug your television into their hardware and it just works. Much the way a Tivo does.
You are not comparing like with like. Number of people does not equal number of households. There are 8 to 9 million households in the U.S. with Tivo. You also fail to mention how many households have DVRs that are not Tivos.
Ok, their are estimated to be 109 million households in the United States. According to Tom Rogers CEO of Tivo 8-9 million households have a DVR. Which for an entire consumer product is still a very small number.
You are also failing to appreciate the "media center" growth potential. Here in the U.K., at least, "media center" PCs are only just starting to get media attention outside of PC magazines. There is now a lot of interest from HiFi and Home Cinema people. Why? Because only now is the hardware starting to live up to the promise. Windows Media Center came before its time, and that's why it hasn't done amazingly well yet. Trust me, this market is going to get a lot bigger.
Of course there is growth potential. I've never said that DVR's won't grow in the future. I'm talking about the present. At present there is lackluster consumer demand for DVR's. Even more lackluster for computer based Media Centers.
My personal estimate is people won't be too excited about MCE. After the average Joe/Jane have spent a long hard day at work with Windows machines. They want to come home during leisure time and have to deal with a Windows machine hooked to their television.
Originally posted by PBG4 Dude
Well, maybe for upgrade pricing $250USD would work. Right now a non-upgrade of XP Pro retails at $299.99. Ultimate is supposed to be even more expensive.
Also keep in mind that so far Mac users have been spending $129 a year keeping up with the Mac OS X upgrade scheme, although I suspect that Apple will have one definitive release of Leopard near when Longhorn comes out and the upgrade cycle will slow down after that.
Apple does not lock the OS serial code to one computer, one copy of OS X can upgrade several computers.