I am saying most consumers did not actively choose to buy MCE. The only way MS can sell MCE in volume is to take away the choice to buy MCE.
MCE never existed as a standalone product.
Repeat it with me:
MCE never existed as a standalone product.
Did MCE ever exist as a standalone product?
Why no, no it didn't.
How on earth can someone choose to buy or not to buy something that isn't sold on its own?
MCE was bundled with $1000+ computers and now it's bundled with XP/Vista.
It never existed as a standalone product. Its sales power absolutely cannot be tracked. Do you honestly believe people saw the HTPCs offered by HP and whoever and thought, "I would spend the extra money to get this DVR-capable computer, but man do I hate MCE!"?
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You do realize you are comparing an Apple computer 10 years ago to Microsofts latest software.
It looks like the point went 10 miles over your head.
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At least in the beginning it seems Apple did not want to make Front Row too complicated. I'm sure at this point they just want to get the first version out there and fix any performance and stability bugs.
kickaha:
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True, but these are the same arguments against the iTMS when it started up.
Eh... wha?
Let's go through this...
This quote exemplifies that you appreciate the scale of VoD. Do you really think that Apple is being realistic if it thinks it can compete with conventional T.V. within just a few years?
Apples & oranges.
The iTMS equivalent of this would be competing with CD sales and the other pay-for-online-music systems. No problem there as few people thought much of any pre-iTMS music download scheme and CD sales have been on the drop with tons of people looking for a good Internet solution.
iTMS launched to much fanfare. It was the first online music service to get big love from the media and analysts.
What about the required bandwidth, both at Apple's end, and at the customer's end?
Again, apples and oranges for music (of questionable quality) and video (of poor quality). I don't think it's a big concern, but who on earth made the argument that people couldn't possibly have the bandwidth to download their DRM'd 128kbps iTMS tracks?
Here's an idea: pay an extra $5 or so a month with your cable package to recieve a login and password to download HD content in a digital format from Apple. Higher quality and more convenient than having to essentially tape cable TV, and cheaper and less redundant than buying episodes of shows you have the right to watch at some atrocious resolution for a dollar a piece.
How on earth can someone choose to buy or not to buy something that isn't sold on its own?
MCE was bundled with $1000+ computers and now it's bundled with XP/Vista.
It never existed as a standalone product. Its sales power absolutely cannot be tracked. Do you honestly believe people saw the HTPCs offered by HP and whoever and thought, "I would spend the extra money to get this DVR-capable computer, but man do I hate MCE!"?
If I may...
I believe TB's point (which I agree with) is that consumers, if they wanted MCE, bought an MCE machine. That was the selection decision point. They had the choice, and in fact *had* to make the choice to go seek out an MCE capable box. They bought it *because* it was an MCE box, not despite it. The units shipped at that point reflect the number of consumers who *chose* MCE. They directly reflect the desire for MCE in the marketplace... and it wasn't big.
That's the difference.
When MCE starts being shipped with every copy of Windows, even if the hardware isn't DVR ready, then the MCE units shipped number becomes utterly meaningless, because a) the consumer's choice is gone, b) they can't use all the features anyway, and particularly the features that distinguish it as a usable and viable product. The units shipped numbers no longer reflect the demand in the marketplace for MCE, or DVR capabilities - only for Windows.
How on earth can someone choose to buy or not to buy something that isn't sold on its own? MCE was bundled with $1000+ computers and now it's bundled with XP/Vista.
It never existed as a standalone product. Its sales power absolutely cannot be tracked
You are trying to make a point where there is no point.
There was the choice to buy a computer that was only XP. There was a separate choice to buy a computer with XP Media Center Edition.
XP has sold hundreds of millions of copies. XP Media Center Edition sold millions of copies.
Now Media Center Edition is being sold in the general XP market so that XP Media Center Edition will sell hudreds of millions of copies.
"Big" is a relative term, kick. What are you comparing it to? Sales of Macs? Sales of cheaper PCs?
With all the extra added costs to go from a budget PC to a full-fledged HTPC it's not very surprising or noteworthy that full-fledged HTPCs are not dominating the market. I don't think anyone expected them to. Easy to call something a failure when you set unrealistic goals for it.
Sales of machines with XP-MCE are very good, but most of those don't have TV tuners. And right now that's not at all surprising because cable companies offer DVRs for $5-$10 a month and the cost of a full-out HTPC is still ~$1000+. You can still use the Media Center app like FrontRow, either on your television or computer monitor. It's just value-added.
You're trying to call the game in the 3rd inning.
And another thing, if MCE is unusable and inviable without DVR, what the hell is FrontRow?
"Big" is a relative term, kick. What are you comparing it to? Sales of Macs? Sales of cheaper PCs?
Sales of other DVRs, since that is the one and only reason to get an HTPC over a std computer - the DVR.
Especially now that MCE is shipping on other boxes, right?
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With all the extra added costs to go from a budget PC to a full-fledged HTPC it's not very surprising or noteworthy that full-fledged HTPCs are not dominating the market. I don't think anyone expected them to. Easy to call something a failure when you set unrealistic goals for it.
Sales of machines with XP-MCE are very good, but most of those don't have TV tuners. And right now that's not at all surprising because cable companies offer DVRs for $5-$10 a month and the cost of a full-out HTPC is still ~$1000+.
Righto. So why is a Mac DVR necessary again?
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You can still use the Media Center app like FrontRow, either on your television or computer monitor. It's just value-added.
Right. Reducing MCE to essentially FrontRow... which is what I've been saying all along. MCE = FrontRow + DVR, more or less. Without DVR, MCE becomes little more than MS FrontRow. So FrontRow becomes a viable competitor to non-DVR hardware MCE.
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You're trying to call the game in the 3rd inning.
Who's calling a game? I'm just saying that the goal line isn't where we necessarily think it is.
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And another thing, if MCE is unusable and inviable without DVR, what the hell is FrontRow?
Actually, I was going out of my way *not* to compare the two, because you were the one saying that MCE was much more than just FrontRow + DVR, but cool, thanks.
And I never said it was unusable. I only said that non-DVR MCE sales are roughly equivalent in functionality to FrontRow. Only, and *ONLY* the DVR-enabled hardware MCE sales make sense in talking about the DVR penetration. Using MCE sales in general, now that it is a std install of Windows, as an indicator of DVR-on-computer demand, is silly. And, as you point out, with cable companies almost giving them away, few people are going to spend the cash on a HTPC with MCE and DVR hardware. It's not a growing market.
Which brings us back to: Why doesn't Apple offer a DVR enabled Mac? This might be why.
And dammit, weren't we getting tired of this?? Cripes, but we're a crotchety old pair.
And dammit, weren't we getting tired of this?? Cripes, but we're a crotchety old pair.
Hey, don't stop now! I can't be the only one enjoying this
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Originally posted by addabox
Does anyone have reliable figures on how many stand alone copies of MCE have been sold?
I ask because I'm interested in seeing Groverat's head explode.
Whilst this is, of course, slightly relevant, it would be very hard/impossible to use such a number to prove anything about the future of the market.
I said earlier about how the discussion is U.S. & Cable centric, so I went and found out some numbers for the U.K.
According to the latest government figures, 6.3 million households receive "freeview", which is DVB-T (free-to-air digital terrestrial TV received through aerial), 0.7 million are on "analogue" cable, 2.6 million are on "digital" cable, and 7.5 million are on digital satellite. There are approx. 26 million households in the U.K. The unaccounted for household either are still on analogue free-to-air TV (5 channels) or don't have a TV.
I'm sure that the picture is similar across Europe, DVB-T is very popular.
The thing is, for Apple to compete with MCE DVR directly, the only thing they have to do is open-up front row to third parties, and offer pre-configured bundles. They do not have to make any hardware, and they do not have to make any software. Folks such as EyeTV will do all that. Companies make the necessary hardware to record any of: "conventional" analogue over-the-air TV, DVB-T, Cable or satellite. Very, very little effort is required from Apple in order to enter this field.
Groverat, I'd be interested to hear what you think is stopping Apple. Do you think that they are hoping iTunes will be able to compete with cable head-on?
A January 5th Wall Street Journal article states that 6.5 million copies of Windows Media Edition have been sold since the products launch.
Most of which have been sold after Microsoft allowed OEM to ship MCE on low cost computers.
Why wouldn't people want MCE? You get XP Pro (SysInfo shows MCE as XP Pro) plus extra multimedia functionality not in XP Pro for a lower price then XP Pro costs.
Groverat, I'd be interested to hear what you think is stopping Apple. Do you think that they are hoping iTunes will be able to compete with cable head-on?
It's probably as simple as Steve not wanting to do it.
Front Row is a perfect front-end for recorded television. There's no way it's just us consumers who thought about that.
I don't think it's an all-or-nothing proposition, but putting everything (home theater + DVR) in one package makes it a lot better.
I have a cableco provided DVR and my modded XBox. So I have to switch between the two. As a result, my DVR has kind of languished as most of my focus is on the XBox.
Having both of these in one would be amazing. But I'm a special type of consumer (read: filthy pirate) who has specialized needs (support for different codecs, specifically).
I would like to see Apple take aim at providing all of this in one package. And the reason? Because Apple is damned good at making just this sort of thing easy and fun.
Why aren't they doing it? No real idea. All we have is speculation.
I actually see "sales figures" of MCE as akin to those for "MP3 Phones". You put functionality onto something people were going to buy anyway, and bingo, you've got a "market".
Actual useful figures come from some metric of use. In the case of music enabled phones, if people start buying a lot of tunes from the cell carriers services, that means something.
In the case of MCE, I dunno. Mass defections from cable/satellite DVR set-top boxes? Increasing downloads from some kind of MCE only web video store? My impression is the MCE is sort of a catchall, so does using it "a little" count?
Even if someone only uses it as a network jukebox they're still using it. Or for slideshows, or whatever.
It's just an application.
Sure.
But it seems like the larger question is something like "Is there a mass market taking shape for computer as media hub/CE device that Apple is missing out on by not putting DVR functionality into its computers, already?".
And the only "mass market" data we have is how people are using MCE.
If they are kinda nibbling around the edges in low numbers, then maybe it makes sense for Apple to let things gel a little bit more before they step in.
But if a lot of people are really using their MCE boxes to change how they consume media, then Apple may already be a day late and a dollar short.
But it seems like the larger question is something like "Is there a mass market taking shape for computer as media hub/CE device that Apple is missing out on by not putting DVR functionality into its computers, already?".
Not right now, perhaps, but a market can spring up very quickly if a company sets it off with a good product.
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If they are kinda nibbling around the edges in low numbers, then maybe it makes sense for Apple to let things gel a little bit more before they step in.
Why wait? There's no reason to. All that is is justifying Apple's silence/stillness.
I do not think that Microsoft can do as good of a job at this as Apple can, the track record simply is not there.
But Microsoft is making the effort and some kind of convergence, and they are doing a damned fine job, especially when you look at integration with the XBox 360. With that, or MCExtender on the old XBox even, you don't even have to worry about hooking your computer up to your TV; just stream everything from it to your XBox.
It's a simple thing, but Joe & Jane consumer aren't too good at putting these things together. That's where Apple excels.
The hurdle is getting your 10' UI. Well Microsoft and Apple both have that now (MCE & Front Row).
If MCE had better support for plug-ins (or at least a slew of different codecs for video streaming) I'd be doing that already. I had to go all hacker to get that.
I had the money to spend but nothing legit to spend it on. All my DVDs are ripped to either XviD or x264. I'm not going to back to juggling my DVDs, that's over now. I'm going to rip them and put them on the shelf, just like my CDs.
If FrontRow supports those codecs why doesn't Apple tell us that?
I think fear of piracy is really keeping this back. That's got to be part of the equation.
I see the difference as this: Apple tends to wait until it can do its thing well all at one go. That sometimes means waiting on technology to get to a certain place, where all the pieces are tested and available.
Microsoft tends to put stuff out there and fix it in the field, adding patches and functionality extensions in subsequent iterations.
Both approaches haves plusses and minuses.
For instance, while it may be true that in driving wide-spread adoption of the MCE framework MS has laid the groundwork to take advantage of future market opportunities, they also run the risk of muddying the waters by having it out there before all the pieces are in place. People try it out, and because of various content/cabling/DVR/processor speed/compatibility issues it doesn't work very well, for the average user.
If that happens enough, you may have poisoned the entire concept of convergence, on your platform and under that name. You know, just bad word-of-mouth.
OTOH, if Apple waits too long to offer a complete solution, the DVR/content deal/compatibility train may have left the station, effectively locking them out of the living room.
Conversely, if they make their move when things like wireless with enough bandwidth for video and HD interconnects and HD-DVD/BlueRay and full res downloads are done deals (or at least doner than they are now), they have the opportunity to "do it right" right out of the box, which could be a huge win.
I see MCE as a product that has been kind of sloshing around in a big box of unsettled standards, changing formats and "pretty soon now" technologies. That's either a head start or the wrong race, depending on how things pan out.
Why aren't they doing it? No real idea. All we have is speculation.
Why wait? There's no reason to. All that is is justifying Apple's silence/stillness.
Microsoft has the resources and capital to push a product at a loss for a long time. Until either the market accepts the product or MS gives up. Both of these have happened without causing MS any significant problems.
Apple has much more limited resources and capital in comparison. Apple cannot afford to push a product at a loss until the market accepts it. Apple has to release products that sell and create revenue. Apple has already stared into the dark abyss once and I'm sure they don't want to go back.
I'm sure if Apple felt it had a killer DVR product akin to the iPod and iTunes they would use it. DVR is very different in the sense that you have to deal with uncooperative and ultra-competative cable/satalite companies.
At this point the DVR market has not been proven to be a viable revenue generating market. That may change at some point in the future.
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All told, 6.5 million copies of XP MCE sold?
Not bad. How much has OSX Tiger sold?
With the benefits of being a giant monopoly comes the burden of being a giant monopoly. There is somewhere over 900 million Windows and a little more than 22 million OS X users.
Because of its sheer size Microsoft has to sell a lot of Windows to mainitain its current profit and even more to exceed last years profits.
Because of its smaller size Apple does not have to sell nearly as many copies of Tiger to make big profits. 6.5 million copies of Tiger sold are great numbers for Apple.
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The thing is, for Apple to compete with MCE DVR directly, the only thing they have to do is open-up front row to third parties, and offer pre-configured bundles.
You are right Apple is not really doing much to directly support third party DVR developers.
Probably has to do with Apple establishing ties with television studios. Apple does not want to weaken its negotiating ability or risk studio confidence.
I think in time Apple will open a backdoor in Font Row that will allow third party applications to work with it.
At this point Apple just wants to get Front Row working as advertised.
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Why wouldn't people want MCE?
Here are some bits from a CNET article comparing Front Row to MCE.
It can't be understated how frustrating it can potentially be to get a Media Center PC to communicate with a TV. It's easy for the technical-minded to overlook this simple fact, but anyone who is used to a DVD or video recorder 'just working' will find that Media Center PCs are sometimes not an easy alternative.
The Mini comes pre-installed with Apple's Front Row software. This is an extremely slick interface that lets you browse your iTunes and iPhoto libraries using the Apple remote control. It's a tough call between this interface and Microsoft's -- both are glass-buttoned masterpieces and easy to navigate.
The Mac Mini automatically recognised the LCD TV we're using, and the third-party tuner was similarly straightforward to set up. Compared to the hours we've spent coaxing similar results out of some Microsoft Media Center systems, the Mini is definitely ahead so far.
....compared to the hair-pulling ceremonies we've held getting Window Media Center PCs to display anything at all on a TV, the Mac has delivered a nasty right-hook to Microsoft's fighter.
We'll continue to test the Mini over the coming weeks and keep you updated on our experiences. Check back for Round 2, when we'll be comparing the TV scheduling systems. It's likely that Microsoft will scream ahead in this respect, their PVR software is far superior to anything currently available to Mac users.
TenoBell, you've gone with a two-pronged rebuttal. One is that "Apple has limited resources" and "cannot afford to push a product at a loss", the other is that it "Probably has to do with Apple establishing ties with television studios. Apple does not want to weaken its negotiating ability or risk studio confidence."
So, which is it? Or are you saying "both"? Which is the dominant one?
I'll take each in turn.
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Originally posted by TenoBell
Microsoft has the resources and capital to push a product at a loss for a long time. Until either the market accepts the product or MS gives up. Both of these have happened without causing MS any significant problems.
Apple has much more limited resources and capital in comparison. Apple cannot afford to push a product at a loss until the market accepts it. Apple has to release products that sell and create revenue.
From where Apple is now, to compete in the DVR space, they do not have to make any hardware, they do not need to write any drivers, and they do not need to develop a UI (they've already developed Front Row). All they have to do is open Front Row to third parties and then sell Macs with Front Row bundled with third-party DVR hardware as an option.
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Originally posted by TenoBell
You are right Apple is not really doing much to directly support third party DVR developers.
Probably has to do with Apple establishing ties with television studios. Apple does not want to weaken its negotiating ability or risk studio confidence.
I doubt that very much. From the TV studio's point of view, these are just two seperate markets, and they want to be in both*. For someone to use a DVR, they are watching TV filled with ads, and also probably subscribing to cable: TV studio gets income. For someone to download something from iTunes, they pay for it: TV studio gets income.
If the reason Apple hasn't produced a DVR solution is related to iTunes, it'll be because they don't want to cannibalise the iTunes sales, not due to negotiating ability.
I hope that the actual reason we haven't seen anything is because Apple are waiting for all the pieces to come together.
*in fact, if anything, they are wary of the download model because they aren't sure about what it's going to do to advertising revenue. I.e., will downloads pick up fast enough to offset reductions in advertising revenue?
Comments
I am saying most consumers did not actively choose to buy MCE. The only way MS can sell MCE in volume is to take away the choice to buy MCE.
MCE never existed as a standalone product.
Repeat it with me:
MCE never existed as a standalone product.
Did MCE ever exist as a standalone product?
Why no, no it didn't.
How on earth can someone choose to buy or not to buy something that isn't sold on its own?
MCE was bundled with $1000+ computers and now it's bundled with XP/Vista.
It never existed as a standalone product. Its sales power absolutely cannot be tracked. Do you honestly believe people saw the HTPCs offered by HP and whoever and thought, "I would spend the extra money to get this DVR-capable computer, but man do I hate MCE!"?
You do realize you are comparing an Apple computer 10 years ago to Microsofts latest software.
It looks like the point went 10 miles over your head.
At least in the beginning it seems Apple did not want to make Front Row too complicated. I'm sure at this point they just want to get the first version out there and fix any performance and stability bugs.
kickaha:
True, but these are the same arguments against the iTMS when it started up.
Eh... wha?
Let's go through this...
This quote exemplifies that you appreciate the scale of VoD. Do you really think that Apple is being realistic if it thinks it can compete with conventional T.V. within just a few years?
Apples & oranges.
The iTMS equivalent of this would be competing with CD sales and the other pay-for-online-music systems. No problem there as few people thought much of any pre-iTMS music download scheme and CD sales have been on the drop with tons of people looking for a good Internet solution.
iTMS launched to much fanfare. It was the first online music service to get big love from the media and analysts.
What about the required bandwidth, both at Apple's end, and at the customer's end?
Again, apples and oranges for music (of questionable quality) and video (of poor quality). I don't think it's a big concern, but who on earth made the argument that people couldn't possibly have the bandwidth to download their DRM'd 128kbps iTMS tracks?
Originally posted by groverat
[B]MCE never existed as a standalone product.
Repeat it with me:
MCE never existed as a standalone product.
Did MCE ever exist as a standalone product?
Why no, no it didn't.
How on earth can someone choose to buy or not to buy something that isn't sold on its own?
MCE was bundled with $1000+ computers and now it's bundled with XP/Vista.
It never existed as a standalone product. Its sales power absolutely cannot be tracked. Do you honestly believe people saw the HTPCs offered by HP and whoever and thought, "I would spend the extra money to get this DVR-capable computer, but man do I hate MCE!"?
If I may...
I believe TB's point (which I agree with) is that consumers, if they wanted MCE, bought an MCE machine. That was the selection decision point. They had the choice, and in fact *had* to make the choice to go seek out an MCE capable box. They bought it *because* it was an MCE box, not despite it. The units shipped at that point reflect the number of consumers who *chose* MCE. They directly reflect the desire for MCE in the marketplace... and it wasn't big.
That's the difference.
When MCE starts being shipped with every copy of Windows, even if the hardware isn't DVR ready, then the MCE units shipped number becomes utterly meaningless, because a) the consumer's choice is gone, b) they can't use all the features anyway, and particularly the features that distinguish it as a usable and viable product. The units shipped numbers no longer reflect the demand in the marketplace for MCE, or DVR capabilities - only for Windows.
How on earth can someone choose to buy or not to buy something that isn't sold on its own? MCE was bundled with $1000+ computers and now it's bundled with XP/Vista.
It never existed as a standalone product. Its sales power absolutely cannot be tracked
You are trying to make a point where there is no point.
There was the choice to buy a computer that was only XP. There was a separate choice to buy a computer with XP Media Center Edition.
XP has sold hundreds of millions of copies. XP Media Center Edition sold millions of copies.
Now Media Center Edition is being sold in the general XP market so that XP Media Center Edition will sell hudreds of millions of copies.
Its not that complicated.
With all the extra added costs to go from a budget PC to a full-fledged HTPC it's not very surprising or noteworthy that full-fledged HTPCs are not dominating the market. I don't think anyone expected them to. Easy to call something a failure when you set unrealistic goals for it.
Sales of machines with XP-MCE are very good, but most of those don't have TV tuners. And right now that's not at all surprising because cable companies offer DVRs for $5-$10 a month and the cost of a full-out HTPC is still ~$1000+. You can still use the Media Center app like FrontRow, either on your television or computer monitor. It's just value-added.
You're trying to call the game in the 3rd inning.
And another thing, if MCE is unusable and inviable without DVR, what the hell is FrontRow?
Originally posted by groverat
"Big" is a relative term, kick. What are you comparing it to? Sales of Macs? Sales of cheaper PCs?
Sales of other DVRs, since that is the one and only reason to get an HTPC over a std computer - the DVR.
Especially now that MCE is shipping on other boxes, right?
With all the extra added costs to go from a budget PC to a full-fledged HTPC it's not very surprising or noteworthy that full-fledged HTPCs are not dominating the market. I don't think anyone expected them to. Easy to call something a failure when you set unrealistic goals for it.
Sales of machines with XP-MCE are very good, but most of those don't have TV tuners. And right now that's not at all surprising because cable companies offer DVRs for $5-$10 a month and the cost of a full-out HTPC is still ~$1000+.
Righto. So why is a Mac DVR necessary again?
You can still use the Media Center app like FrontRow, either on your television or computer monitor. It's just value-added.
Right. Reducing MCE to essentially FrontRow... which is what I've been saying all along. MCE = FrontRow + DVR, more or less. Without DVR, MCE becomes little more than MS FrontRow. So FrontRow becomes a viable competitor to non-DVR hardware MCE.
You're trying to call the game in the 3rd inning.
Who's calling a game? I'm just saying that the goal line isn't where we necessarily think it is.
And another thing, if MCE is unusable and inviable without DVR, what the hell is FrontRow?
Actually, I was going out of my way *not* to compare the two, because you were the one saying that MCE was much more than just FrontRow + DVR, but cool, thanks.
And I never said it was unusable. I only said that non-DVR MCE sales are roughly equivalent in functionality to FrontRow. Only, and *ONLY* the DVR-enabled hardware MCE sales make sense in talking about the DVR penetration. Using MCE sales in general, now that it is a std install of Windows, as an indicator of DVR-on-computer demand, is silly. And, as you point out, with cable companies almost giving them away, few people are going to spend the cash on a HTPC with MCE and DVR hardware. It's not a growing market.
Which brings us back to: Why doesn't Apple offer a DVR enabled Mac? This might be why.
And dammit, weren't we getting tired of this?? Cripes, but we're a crotchety old pair.
It's not a growing market.
That's a way too definitive statement.
Like I said, you're calling the game in the 3rd inning.
I ask because I'm interested in seeing Groverat's head explode.
Most of which have been sold after Microsoft allowed OEM to ship MCE on low cost computers.
Originally posted by TenoBell
A January 5th Wall Street Journal article states that 6.5 million copies of Windows Media Edition have been sold since the products launch.
Most of which have been sold after Microsoft allowed OEM to ship MCE on low cost computers.
Yikes, I wasn't actually looking for figures, on account of, you know, MCE has never been a stand alone product.
I'm just in it for the head exploding.
Originally posted by Kickaha
And dammit, weren't we getting tired of this?? Cripes, but we're a crotchety old pair.
Hey, don't stop now! I can't be the only one enjoying this
Originally posted by addabox
Does anyone have reliable figures on how many stand alone copies of MCE have been sold?
I ask because I'm interested in seeing Groverat's head explode.
Whilst this is, of course, slightly relevant, it would be very hard/impossible to use such a number to prove anything about the future of the market.
I said earlier about how the discussion is U.S. & Cable centric, so I went and found out some numbers for the U.K.
According to the latest government figures, 6.3 million households receive "freeview", which is DVB-T (free-to-air digital terrestrial TV received through aerial), 0.7 million are on "analogue" cable, 2.6 million are on "digital" cable, and 7.5 million are on digital satellite. There are approx. 26 million households in the U.K. The unaccounted for household either are still on analogue free-to-air TV (5 channels) or don't have a TV.
I'm sure that the picture is similar across Europe, DVB-T is very popular.
The thing is, for Apple to compete with MCE DVR directly, the only thing they have to do is open-up front row to third parties, and offer pre-configured bundles. They do not have to make any hardware, and they do not have to make any software. Folks such as EyeTV will do all that. Companies make the necessary hardware to record any of: "conventional" analogue over-the-air TV, DVB-T, Cable or satellite. Very, very little effort is required from Apple in order to enter this field.
Groverat, I'd be interested to hear what you think is stopping Apple. Do you think that they are hoping iTunes will be able to compete with cable head-on?
Originally posted by TenoBell
A January 5th Wall Street Journal article states that 6.5 million copies of Windows Media Edition have been sold since the products launch.
Most of which have been sold after Microsoft allowed OEM to ship MCE on low cost computers.
Why wouldn't people want MCE? You get XP Pro (SysInfo shows MCE as XP Pro) plus extra multimedia functionality not in XP Pro for a lower price then XP Pro costs.
Not bad. How much has OSX Tiger sold?
Groverat, I'd be interested to hear what you think is stopping Apple. Do you think that they are hoping iTunes will be able to compete with cable head-on?
It's probably as simple as Steve not wanting to do it.
Front Row is a perfect front-end for recorded television. There's no way it's just us consumers who thought about that.
I don't think it's an all-or-nothing proposition, but putting everything (home theater + DVR) in one package makes it a lot better.
I have a cableco provided DVR and my modded XBox. So I have to switch between the two. As a result, my DVR has kind of languished as most of my focus is on the XBox.
Having both of these in one would be amazing. But I'm a special type of consumer (read: filthy pirate) who has specialized needs (support for different codecs, specifically).
I would like to see Apple take aim at providing all of this in one package. And the reason? Because Apple is damned good at making just this sort of thing easy and fun.
Why aren't they doing it? No real idea. All we have is speculation.
Actual useful figures come from some metric of use. In the case of music enabled phones, if people start buying a lot of tunes from the cell carriers services, that means something.
In the case of MCE, I dunno. Mass defections from cable/satellite DVR set-top boxes? Increasing downloads from some kind of MCE only web video store? My impression is the MCE is sort of a catchall, so does using it "a little" count?
Originally posted by addabox
My impression is the MCE is sort of a catchall, so does using it "a little" count?
Sure, why not?
Even if someone only uses it as a network jukebox they're still using it. Or for slideshows, or whatever.
It's just an application.
Originally posted by groverat
Sure, why not?
Even if someone only uses it as a network jukebox they're still using it. Or for slideshows, or whatever.
It's just an application.
Sure.
But it seems like the larger question is something like "Is there a mass market taking shape for computer as media hub/CE device that Apple is missing out on by not putting DVR functionality into its computers, already?".
And the only "mass market" data we have is how people are using MCE.
If they are kinda nibbling around the edges in low numbers, then maybe it makes sense for Apple to let things gel a little bit more before they step in.
But if a lot of people are really using their MCE boxes to change how they consume media, then Apple may already be a day late and a dollar short.
It's a crucial distinction.
Originally posted by addabox
But it seems like the larger question is something like "Is there a mass market taking shape for computer as media hub/CE device that Apple is missing out on by not putting DVR functionality into its computers, already?".
Not right now, perhaps, but a market can spring up very quickly if a company sets it off with a good product.
If they are kinda nibbling around the edges in low numbers, then maybe it makes sense for Apple to let things gel a little bit more before they step in.
Why wait? There's no reason to. All that is is justifying Apple's silence/stillness.
I do not think that Microsoft can do as good of a job at this as Apple can, the track record simply is not there.
But Microsoft is making the effort and some kind of convergence, and they are doing a damned fine job, especially when you look at integration with the XBox 360. With that, or MCExtender on the old XBox even, you don't even have to worry about hooking your computer up to your TV; just stream everything from it to your XBox.
It's a simple thing, but Joe & Jane consumer aren't too good at putting these things together. That's where Apple excels.
The hurdle is getting your 10' UI. Well Microsoft and Apple both have that now (MCE & Front Row).
If MCE had better support for plug-ins (or at least a slew of different codecs for video streaming) I'd be doing that already. I had to go all hacker to get that.
I had the money to spend but nothing legit to spend it on. All my DVDs are ripped to either XviD or x264. I'm not going to back to juggling my DVDs, that's over now. I'm going to rip them and put them on the shelf, just like my CDs.
If FrontRow supports those codecs why doesn't Apple tell us that?
I think fear of piracy is really keeping this back. That's got to be part of the equation.
I see the difference as this: Apple tends to wait until it can do its thing well all at one go. That sometimes means waiting on technology to get to a certain place, where all the pieces are tested and available.
Microsoft tends to put stuff out there and fix it in the field, adding patches and functionality extensions in subsequent iterations.
Both approaches haves plusses and minuses.
For instance, while it may be true that in driving wide-spread adoption of the MCE framework MS has laid the groundwork to take advantage of future market opportunities, they also run the risk of muddying the waters by having it out there before all the pieces are in place. People try it out, and because of various content/cabling/DVR/processor speed/compatibility issues it doesn't work very well, for the average user.
If that happens enough, you may have poisoned the entire concept of convergence, on your platform and under that name. You know, just bad word-of-mouth.
OTOH, if Apple waits too long to offer a complete solution, the DVR/content deal/compatibility train may have left the station, effectively locking them out of the living room.
Conversely, if they make their move when things like wireless with enough bandwidth for video and HD interconnects and HD-DVD/BlueRay and full res downloads are done deals (or at least doner than they are now), they have the opportunity to "do it right" right out of the box, which could be a huge win.
I see MCE as a product that has been kind of sloshing around in a big box of unsettled standards, changing formats and "pretty soon now" technologies. That's either a head start or the wrong race, depending on how things pan out.
Why aren't they doing it? No real idea. All we have is speculation.
Why wait? There's no reason to. All that is is justifying Apple's silence/stillness.
Microsoft has the resources and capital to push a product at a loss for a long time. Until either the market accepts the product or MS gives up. Both of these have happened without causing MS any significant problems.
Apple has much more limited resources and capital in comparison. Apple cannot afford to push a product at a loss until the market accepts it. Apple has to release products that sell and create revenue. Apple has already stared into the dark abyss once and I'm sure they don't want to go back.
I'm sure if Apple felt it had a killer DVR product akin to the iPod and iTunes they would use it. DVR is very different in the sense that you have to deal with uncooperative and ultra-competative cable/satalite companies.
At this point the DVR market has not been proven to be a viable revenue generating market. That may change at some point in the future.
All told, 6.5 million copies of XP MCE sold?
Not bad. How much has OSX Tiger sold?
With the benefits of being a giant monopoly comes the burden of being a giant monopoly. There is somewhere over 900 million Windows and a little more than 22 million OS X users.
Because of its sheer size Microsoft has to sell a lot of Windows to mainitain its current profit and even more to exceed last years profits.
Because of its smaller size Apple does not have to sell nearly as many copies of Tiger to make big profits. 6.5 million copies of Tiger sold are great numbers for Apple.
The thing is, for Apple to compete with MCE DVR directly, the only thing they have to do is open-up front row to third parties, and offer pre-configured bundles.
You are right Apple is not really doing much to directly support third party DVR developers.
Probably has to do with Apple establishing ties with television studios. Apple does not want to weaken its negotiating ability or risk studio confidence.
I think in time Apple will open a backdoor in Font Row that will allow third party applications to work with it.
At this point Apple just wants to get Front Row working as advertised.
Why wouldn't people want MCE?
Here are some bits from a CNET article comparing Front Row to MCE.
It can't be understated how frustrating it can potentially be to get a Media Center PC to communicate with a TV. It's easy for the technical-minded to overlook this simple fact, but anyone who is used to a DVD or video recorder 'just working' will find that Media Center PCs are sometimes not an easy alternative.
The Mini comes pre-installed with Apple's Front Row software. This is an extremely slick interface that lets you browse your iTunes and iPhoto libraries using the Apple remote control. It's a tough call between this interface and Microsoft's -- both are glass-buttoned masterpieces and easy to navigate.
The Mac Mini automatically recognised the LCD TV we're using, and the third-party tuner was similarly straightforward to set up. Compared to the hours we've spent coaxing similar results out of some Microsoft Media Center systems, the Mini is definitely ahead so far.
....compared to the hair-pulling ceremonies we've held getting Window Media Center PCs to display anything at all on a TV, the Mac has delivered a nasty right-hook to Microsoft's fighter.
We'll continue to test the Mini over the coming weeks and keep you updated on our experiences. Check back for Round 2, when we'll be comparing the TV scheduling systems. It's likely that Microsoft will scream ahead in this respect, their PVR software is far superior to anything currently available to Mac users.
So, which is it? Or are you saying "both"? Which is the dominant one?
I'll take each in turn.
Originally posted by TenoBell
Microsoft has the resources and capital to push a product at a loss for a long time. Until either the market accepts the product or MS gives up. Both of these have happened without causing MS any significant problems.
Apple has much more limited resources and capital in comparison. Apple cannot afford to push a product at a loss until the market accepts it. Apple has to release products that sell and create revenue.
From where Apple is now, to compete in the DVR space, they do not have to make any hardware, they do not need to write any drivers, and they do not need to develop a UI (they've already developed Front Row). All they have to do is open Front Row to third parties and then sell Macs with Front Row bundled with third-party DVR hardware as an option.
Originally posted by TenoBell
You are right Apple is not really doing much to directly support third party DVR developers.
Probably has to do with Apple establishing ties with television studios. Apple does not want to weaken its negotiating ability or risk studio confidence.
I doubt that very much. From the TV studio's point of view, these are just two seperate markets, and they want to be in both*. For someone to use a DVR, they are watching TV filled with ads, and also probably subscribing to cable: TV studio gets income. For someone to download something from iTunes, they pay for it: TV studio gets income.
If the reason Apple hasn't produced a DVR solution is related to iTunes, it'll be because they don't want to cannibalise the iTunes sales, not due to negotiating ability.
I hope that the actual reason we haven't seen anything is because Apple are waiting for all the pieces to come together.
*in fact, if anything, they are wary of the download model because they aren't sure about what it's going to do to advertising revenue. I.e., will downloads pick up fast enough to offset reductions in advertising revenue?