Things aren't looking good for HDDVD. Looks like those firesales did nothing to help sales.
Non sequitor. It's clear that Toshiba wasn't going to hit 1.8 million HD DVD players in North America in 2007. I thought that prediction was bold. If they can hit a million then they're doing fine because Blu-ray sales are also missing targets as well. Consumers aren't keen on this battle and frankly both platforms deserve low sales. DVD is a safe bet that looks "good enough"
Clearly the sale did work as the numbers of HD DVD standalones has improved so your last point was clearly an off the mark non sequitor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001
Someone will try to pervert that into a good thing. Just watch.
The only thing perverted is your logic. You're the posting equivalent of a root canal. Have fun pounding your chest and wasting more bits.
Summary:
HD DVD- "sales aren't going quite as well as we dreamt early in the year"
Knee jerk AI posters- "HD DVD is dead!!!" "Game over"
Consumers aren't keen to spending $28 a movie and buying into a player platform with fractured studios. I myself am willing to take the risk if the players are cheap. I bought into HD DVD at $249 I'd do the same with Bluray at the same cost. However I'm an enthusiast, many consumers want to keep expenses low.
Non sequitor. It's clear that Toshiba wasn't going to hit 1.8 million HD DVD players in North America in 2007. I thought that prediction was bold. If they can hit a million then they're doing fine because Blu-ray sales are also missing targets as well. Consumers aren't keen on this battle and frankly both platforms deserve low sales. DVD is a safe bet that looks "good enough"
Ahh...see, just what I said. It's really not a problem! After all, you expected they'd never make it. Man, I'm like Carnac in here.
Quote:
Clearly the sale did work as the numbers of HD DVD standalones has improved so your last point was clearly an off the mark non sequitor.
Uh, it didn't work well enough. Of course the number of players have improved. It's not like they wouldn't sell at all when they weren't on sale. They sold a bit better with the sale, I'm sure. I like how you lowered the bar to sea level there.
[quote[
The only thing perverted is your logic. You're the posting equivalent of a root canal. Have fun pounding your chest and wasting more bits. [/quote]
Now you're just getting nasty. I'm not chest thumping at all. While I'm on the blu-ray side of things, I really don't care of HD-DVD wins. I just don't see it happening right now. You're the one who for some reason refuses to acknowledge reality. Did you notice that I pointed out some anecdotal evidence of HD-DVD having a slight advantage...just a few posts ago?
Quote:
Summary:
HD DVD- "sales aren't going quite as well as we dreamt early in the year"
Knee jerk AI posters- "HD DVD is dead!!!" "Game over"
Consumers aren't keen to spending $28 a movie and buying into a player platform with fractured studios. I myself am willing to take the risk if the players are cheap. I bought into HD DVD at $249 I'd do the same with Bluray at the same cost. However I'm an enthusiast, many consumers want to keep expenses low.
That summary is ridiculous. Here is more realistic one.
"HD-DVD sales are lagging behind BRD significantly, by a margin of about 2 to 1 on average. Despite much lower (and falling) player prices and an arguably better brand name, HD-DVD has not caught up with blu-ray disc sales, nor is it gaining ground at all. In fact, blu-ray appears to be widening its lead. Additionally, blu-ray has far greater studio support at present
Currently, neither format has won widespread acceptance as the defacto next gen DVD standard, though nearly all indications are that blu-ray is likely to take the prize."
If you can't accept that summary, I don't know what to tell you. Now it's true that I have been poking you in the eye with a stick a bit, just for my own amusement. But in reality, the knee-jerk reaction is from those, like you, that cling to useless and meaningless stats that deceptively make it appear that HD-DVD is keeping pace or gaining. It's not.
Now another summary. Why blu-ray will win:
1. Greater studio support
2. The PS3 is a quality blu-ray player, and it comes standard.
3. Current BD sales lead is large, possibly too large to overcome.
4. HD-DVD proponents are now openly hoping for Universal players instead of victory
5. Recent price cuts in HD-DVD players are not a good thing for the format. They are cutting the price for a reason...they have to. The price cuts have not produced the results desired.
You may disagree, but I'd wager that the studios and manufacturers already know HD-DVD is going to lose, perhaps except Toshiba...which probably also knows, it's just deep down in places it doesn't talk about at parties.
The only saving grace for HD-DVD right now is that neither format has really engaged the masses yet. In other words, we're only in the third quarter. But the score is 35-14 and the clock is running.
Someone will try to pervert that into a good thing. Just watch.
Damn, how right you were...it surely didn't take long. Maybe it wasn't full fledged perversions of this information, but it sure looked like rationalizing to me.
Also, in a bit of interesting news in regard to this, we have Toshiba slashing forecasts, and we have Sony increasing forecasts, six-fold...
Sony May Hike Blu-ray Shipments by 600 Percent
Quote:
The company says demand will soar due to exclusive titles.
By Phillip Swann
Washington, D.C. (June 12, 2007) -- Sony said yesterday that it might increase shipments of Blu-ray players in the U.S. by 600 percent this year.
That's according to an article from Bloomberg News.
The news service reports that Sony believes that Blu-ray sales will rise dramatically this year due to the exclusive release of several blockbuster films on the high-def DVD format.
Blu-ray and rival HD DVD, which is backed by Toshiba, are battling for the new high-def DVD audience. But four of the eight major film studios are backing Blu-ray exclusively with only one (Universal) supporting HD DVD exclusively.
Sony shipped less than 100,000 Blu-ray players in the U.S. last year, but could ship up to 600,000 in 2007, according to Randy Waynick, a company senior vice president.
`"You'll see growth in multiples of five or six times," Waynick said, according to Bloomberg.
He said actual shipments will depend on how competitive Blu-ray becomes. But Waynick added that the upcoming release of several blockbuster films on Blu-ray should drive sales. He said 14 or 15 of the top 20 films this year will be Blu-ray exclusives.
"The movies are very compelling," Waynick said, according to Bloomberg.
Yes, quite complelling. Especially when one realizes Blu-ray has Panasonic, Pioneer, Sharp, LG, and Samsung rolling out Blu-ray players as well.
I don't know whether it's the end of the third quarter, second or even first, but to declare the game over because Toshiba is cutting back its sales estimate is unduly overly optimistic as Toshiba, as well as Sony, has shown a willingness to limp along loosing money in hopes that their supported format will win.
Some additional observations. The price point arguement for either format doesn't hold water as long as there's a format war.
I was in the Everett Best Buy last Saturday killing time. Talked to one of the sales people who is both a video enthusiast and a gamer and is estatic about his PS3. I also checked out the HD format disc display, Both formats had about equal shelf space but couldn't tell which had the most number of titles as some of the discs were displayed by the spine while others were by the cover. I definitely wasn't interested enough to actually count the number of discs. I also though B-r was supposed to be more expensive but on the title I found in both formats the B-r was $5.00 less. Is that normal?
Finally, I just wish the whole format war would go away.
Non sequitor. It's clear that Toshiba wasn't going to hit 1.8 million HD DVD players in North America in 2007. I thought that prediction was bold.
WHAT??????????
You've been quoting expected Toshiba sales for months now and not even once did you say that they were unrealistic.
On page 39 you said:
"Ahhhhhh things are looking rosey ...I must say.
The penetration of HD DVD should be 3 million players by next March according to Toshiba. They are aiming for %60 of the HD playback share. I think they'll get there and when they do expect to see all studios but Sony shed their exclusive baggage."
So you believe that they will sell 2 million players in the first three months of 2008?
Ahh...see, just what I said. It's really not a problem! After all, you expected they'd never make it. Man, I'm like Carnac in here.
I didn't infer it wasn't a problem. I said that I thought Toshiba's numbers given at CES 2007 where high. I couldn't see HD DVD selling1.8 million players in 2007 based on the first 6 months of player sales data. However if they hit 1 million players that's a more attainable goal. The mistake is to think that the same forcast isn't befalling Blu-ray which isn't going to be able to hit any lofty goals either. Both formats have overestimated how many consumers would pony up hundreds for a new player and pay twice as much for discs. Add in a silly format battle and it's easy to see why the formats aren't taking off.
Uh, it didn't work well enough. Of course the number of players have improved. It's not like they wouldn't sell at all when they weren't on sale. They sold a bit better with the sale, I'm sure. I like how you lowered the bar to sea level there.
There were no predetermined goals of the sale so "they didn't work well enough" is simply you adding phantom metrics. There has been a sales improvement in standalone players in Brick and Mortar and on Amazon.com but the rebate came without any pretense of overtaking Blu-ray or hitting a goal.
[quote[
The only thing perverted is your logic. You're the posting equivalent of a root canal. Have fun pounding your chest and wasting more bits.
Now you're just getting nasty. I'm not chest thumping at all. While I'm on the blu-ray side of things, I really don't care of HD-DVD wins. I just don't see it happening right now. You're the one who for some reason refuses to acknowledge reality. Did you notice that I pointed out some anecdotal evidence of HD-DVD having a slight advantage...just a few posts ago?
That summary is ridiculous. Here is more realistic one.
"HD-DVD sales are lagging behind BRD significantly, by a margin of about 2 to 1 on average. Despite much lower (and falling) player prices and an arguably better brand name, HD-DVD has not caught up with blu-ray disc sales, nor is it gaining ground at all. In fact, blu-ray appears to be widening its lead. Additionally, blu-ray has far greater studio support at present
Currently, neither format has won widespread acceptance as the defacto next gen DVD standard, though nearly all indications are that blu-ray is likely to take the prize."
If you can't accept that summary, I don't know what to tell you. Now it's true that I have been poking you in the eye with a stick a bit, just for my own amusement (you bastard!!! ). But in reality, the knee-jerk reaction is from those, like you, that cling to useless and meaningless stats that deceptively make it appear that HD-DVD is keeping pace or gaining. It's not.
Now another summary. Why blu-ray will win:
1. Greater studio support
2. The PS3 is a quality blu-ray player, and it comes standard.
3. Current BD sales lead is large, possibly too large to overcome.
4. HD-DVD proponents are now openly hoping for Universal players instead of victory
5. Recent price cuts in HD-DVD players are not a good thing for the format. They are cutting the price for a reason...they have to. The price cuts have not produced the results desired.
You may disagree, but I'd wager that the studios and manufacturers already know HD-DVD is going to lose, perhaps except Toshiba...which probably also knows, it's just deep down in places it doesn't talk about at parties.
(Frankly, I'm beginning to see a bit too many similarities with SACD/DVD Audio. Split studios, expensive players and not enough of a qualitative jump over DVD)
The only saving grace for HD-DVD right now is that neither format has really engaged the masses yet. In other words, we're only in the third quarter. But the score is 35-14 and the clock is running.[/QUOTE]
It's clear that Toshiba wasn't going to hit 1.8 million HD DVD players in North America in 2007. I thought that prediction was bold.
Now THATS funny, it didn't stop you posting in no uncertain terms that you thought they would shift 3 million earlier in the year (or late last, do I REALLY need to go and look through a gazillion posts?)
You were SO sure of this, it was almost like cheerleading, just thought you needed reminding.
The penetration of HD DVD should be 3 million players by next March according to Toshiba. They are aiming for %60 of the HD playback share. I think they'll get there and when they do expect to see all studios but Sony shed their exclusive baggage."
So you believe that they will sell 2 million players in the first three months of 2008?
Nope...I don't. These PR releases from both sides are getting old. When I begin to regurgitate PR "dream data" then I know I'm not really looking at things and asking the right questions. For Toshiba to hit 1.8 million they'd have to ramp quickly to say 200k players a month and then hit the Xmas selling season hard. When they start announcing press release lauding 100k players sold milestones you start to think that those who ok'd the release about 1.8 million must have been on Meth or something.
I don't know whether it's the end of the third quarter, second or even first, but to declare the game over because Toshiba is cutting back its sales estimate is unduly overly optimistic as Toshiba, as well as Sony, has shown a willingness to limp along loosing money in hopes that their supported format will win.
Some additional observations. The price point arguement for either format doesn't hold water as long as there's a format war.
I was in the Everett Best Buy last Saturday killing time. Talked to one of the sales people who is both a video enthusiast and a gamer and is estatic about his PS3. I also checked out the HD format disc display, Both formats had about equal shelf space but couldn't tell which had the most number of titles as some of the discs were displayed by the spine while others were by the cover. I definitely wasn't interested enough to actually count the number of discs. I also though B-r was supposed to be more expensive but on the title I found in both formats the B-r was $5.00 less. Is that normal?
Finally, I just wish the whole format war would go away.
No. Sony has shown it pour gobs of money into a format and utilize it's other assets to win, despite the initial short term costs.
Right now the chains seem to have about equal libraries of titles at this point. Price seems to be between $19-35 all the way around.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JLL
WHAT??????????
You've been quoting expected Toshiba sales for months now and not even once did you say that they were unrealistic.
On page 39 you said:
"Ahhhhhh things are looking rosey ...I must say.
The penetration of HD DVD should be 3 million players by next March according to Toshiba. They are aiming for %60 of the HD playback share. I think they'll get there and when they do expect to see all studios but Sony shed their exclusive baggage."
So you believe that they will sell 2 million players in the first three months of 2008?
Exactly. But, given murch's other posts, I think even he is starting to realize...though he's still justifying...
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison
Nope...I don't. These PR releases from both sides are getting old. When I begin to regurgitate PR "dream data" then I know I'm not really looking at things and asking the right questions. For Toshiba to hit 1.8 million they'd have to ramp quickly to say 200k players a month and then hit the Xmas selling season hard. When they start announcing press release lauding 100k players sold milestones you start to think that those who ok'd the release about 1.8 million must have been on Meth or something.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JLL
Well you did less than two months ago - after they announced the 100,000 players sold.
And around the Net this morning, if any of you didn't believe my recent Soapbox take on Microsoft's real intentions in supporting HD-DVD, the company's own spokesman all but confirmed it yesterday at the Digital Hollywood conference in Santa Monica. Here's the relevant bit from a new story at Home Media:
If Microsoft has its way, DVD, Blu-Ray Disc and HD DVD will all be rendered obsolete within 10 years, according to Richard Doherty, Microsoft's program manager for Media Entertainment Convergence.
?I don't know that [HD] will be delivered on an optical disc in five to 10 years,? he said, pointing to downloads and broadband delivery. ?At Microsoft, we'd rather it wasn't [on a disc]."
Doherty later added: ?this will be the last optical [home entertainment] generation. If this one survives."
Hey, that should make HD-DVD fans feel good! That's right... Microsoft, one of HD-DVD's few major corporate supporters, is ALREADY counting on the format's demise. IF this one survives?! Are you kidding me?! They don't want it to survive! Microsoft having an in-house "Office of HD-DVD Evangelism" suddenly makes PERFECT sense. What better way for the company to ensure that HD optical discs die, and their own downloading service takes off, than by actively working to perpetuate the confusion of a format war in the "last optical generation"? Ugh. Don't say we didn't warn you, folks. "Oh, but look... HD-DVD players are cheaper right now!" Yeah. Swell. Would you like fries with that download?
I gotta tell ya, Bill Hunt is making good point after good point on his TwoCents pieces lately.
I don't think it's impossible to sell 2 million HD-DVD units from now to the year end, but is Toshiba crazy like Sony to take a huge lost per unit?...... $99 HD-DVD player would sell more than 2 million by the year end, but that means Toshiba need to bleed in the books like Sony. Oh well, this format war is just going to go little longer, that's all.
The problem is that in any war, if you're not willing to accept pain, you can't advance against the enemy. What makes you think Toshiba isn't already losing money on their players? But if their player sales stay anemic, there's no reason consumers should choose them. It's hugely unrealistic, if you ask me. Even giving them a huge benefit of the doubt, say 200,000 players sold to date, that would mean they'd have to sell an additional 800,000 players by the end of the year. I don't think anybody here can point out a single year-old technology that ramped up sales by 4:1 in six months.
It's clear that Toshiba wasn't going to hit 1.8 million HD DVD players in North America in 2007. I thought that prediction was bold.
You thought nothing of the sort. Folks thought that 2M HD-DVD units by the end of the year was stupid and yet you repeatedly stated that you believed that 2M units would be shipped. The "in North America" caveat now is just smokescreen to the older discussion on numbers. There was no way in hell HD-DVD was moving from 200K units to 2M units in either the US, world wide or even on Fantasy Island when we discussed this in march.
There's no way in hell that they are moving from 150K NA units in June 2007 to 1M units in December 2007 either because their run rates don't support that even with a end of year XMas uptick. If the folks releasing the 1.8M figure were on meth back then then they still are for releasing 1M in June with 8 months to go and abysmal numbers to date.
Sony's 100K units in 2007 was a heck of a lot more realistic...even if the new 600K number seems somewhat optimistic...but not crack smoking 1M optimistic.
That the HD-DVD promotion group only had a 60-40 advantage in standalone players is an abysmal statistic for HD-DVD given the price disparity between the standalones.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison
I do think HD DVD will deliver 2 million players.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison
There will be 2 million HD DVD players worldwide by the end of the year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison
2 million total players by years end for HD DVD worldwide.
It was a stupid prediction then and its still stupid today. Much less HD-DVD's original 3M worldwide prediction by March 08.
The only reason that Blu-Ray is getting any market traction, meager as it is, is because of the PS3...which everyone (except you and other HD-DVD fanbois) pretty much accepted would be the reality because for the most part HD is a niche product in 2006-2008 and Toshiba had nothing to drive HD-DVD acceptance once MS didn't use it in the 360.
Sony won the console war with respect to BR vs HD-DVD adoption the moment the 360 shipped sans built-in HD-DVD drive regardless of how well or poorly the PS3 does vs the Wii or 360 so long as it sells in the millions. Which it has.
The problem is that in any war, if you're not willing to accept pain, you can't advance against the enemy. What makes you think Toshiba isn't already losing money on their players? But if their player sales stay anemic, there's no reason consumers should choose them. It's hugely unrealistic, if you ask me. Even giving them a huge benefit of the doubt, say 200,000 players sold to date, that would mean they'd have to sell an additional 800,000 players by the end of the year. I don't think anybody here can point out a single year-old technology that ramped up sales by 4:1 in six months.
You wanna bet?... Toshiba can lower their low end player price to $99 for just last three months of the year and they can easily sell 800k units. It's just matter of Toshiba willing the bleed more in the books...
Here's an example of how consumers react to price drops(approximately $100 off deal on each model). This is a picture of amazon site when HD-DVD promo discount was on....
Sales only lasted for few days and it was able to place all three Tosiba HD-DVD players on the top three DVD list. It's not too late for anything yet....
All it says is that Amazon is selling more HD-A20 than Oppo DV-981HD.
There are way more DVD players available which means that the sold DVD players are divided into several players (almost 300 players and then there are recorders too).
And again, Amazon ranks really can't be used for anything since according to them the HD DVD version of Planet Earth would've been the top selling HD title in the last few months, but it has never been #1 in actual sales according til Nielsen Videoscan.
All it says is that Amazon is selling more HD-A20 than Oppo DV-981HD.
There are way more DVD players available which means that the sold DVD players are divided into several players (almost 300 players and then there are recorders too).
And again, Amazon ranks really can't be used for anything since according to them the HD DVD version of Planet Earth would've been the top selling HD title in the last few months, but it has never been #1 in actual sales according til Nielsen Videoscan.
are you sure it isn't the nielsen and amzon results in question? It's hard to believe any of them since HD-DVD is a favorable choice from the enthusiasts.... even from the neutral boys. I don't think the market is driven by the J6P right now...but these enthusiast are pushing the hidef market and press doesn't truely reflect how market is moving.
Nope...I don't. These PR releases from both sides are getting old. When I begin to regurgitate PR "dream data" then I know I'm not really looking at things and asking the right questions. For Toshiba to hit 1.8 million they'd have to ramp quickly to say 200k players a month and then hit the Xmas selling season hard. When they start announcing press release lauding 100k players sold milestones you start to think that those who ok'd the release about 1.8 million must have been on Meth or something.
I'd bet money on him saying "I told you so" IF Toshiba managed to sell 2 million, I'd also bet money on him saying "I've said it all along"
I have never seen a more messed up arguing for the sake of it, twit online since oh I don't know? John Dvorak
After reading this PS3 "out of box experience" from the HD For Indies blog and I find some of this disappointing:
1.) the included A/V breakout cable with three RCA plugs? That isn't component, that's COMPOSITE and RCA stereo pair. So while it is true that they include cables in the box to connect to your TV or HDTV, it is in the lowest possible common denominator plug. As a gaming platform, there's some logic to it, but as a high end A/V device, this comes across as just plain cheap for a $600 item.
2.) No HDMI cable included
3.) Only one digital audio output, and it is digital optical - no digital coax. Many high end devices offer both.
4.) No digital optical cable included.
5.) No HDMI cable included. Harrumph.
6.) while an Ethernet cable is included, it is only 9 or so feet long - who has an Ethernet drop or box within 9 feet of their TV stuff? I need a longer one - 12 would have done it for me.
7.) As a gaming device, only one controller included - this works for Internet based gaming, but not 1-on-1 in person.
8.) the controller cable is woefully short - I'd have to put the PS3 three feet in front of the TV to have the cable long enough to reach me sitting down
9.) As a Blu-ray player, the "this is a gaming platform" is reinforced by the fact that there is no "normal" A/V remote control included - until my remote gets here, I have to use a game controller to play back (once I get it set up). Awkward.
10.) Update - now I have a #10 - as a media device, there is no hardware disc eject on the device - you have to do it through the remote or a controller.
Most of the bitching in the "out of box experience" doesn't make much sense and seems to find reasons to bash the PS3.
1) Does a Toshiba HD-DVD player or any blu-ray player come with component cables? (I don't know, this is a sincere question)
2) Does a Toshiba HD-DVD player or any blu-ray player come with HDMI cables?
3) Use optical, same level of quality as coax, every decent receiver has it (and HDTV). Who cares if it doesn't have both?
4) Does a Toshiba HD-DVD player or any blu-ray player come with an optical audio cable? Go buy one you cheap prick.
5) So troll like it has to be repeated to reach ten. See 2.
6) Use WiFi.
7) Every system comes with one controller, buy another one.
8) It comes with a charging cable, plug it in when the controller needs charging. If you have an extra controller or charge it when you are not using it then there is no issue as you don't need the cable to play. Isn't the point of wireless to not play with a cable connect to the controller?
9) Buy the remote.
10) Awesome, now a complete lie. There definitely is an eject button, I think this guy is retarded or something.
I see a theme here, this guy is just too cheap to buy the cable he wants to use (or have one laying around), buy a wireless router like everyone else has, play wirelessly or buy a remote.
Comments
Game over... Toshiba reduces sales forecast by 44%
http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=7648
Things aren't looking good for HDDVD. Looks like those firesales did nothing to help sales.
Non sequitor. It's clear that Toshiba wasn't going to hit 1.8 million HD DVD players in North America in 2007. I thought that prediction was bold. If they can hit a million then they're doing fine because Blu-ray sales are also missing targets as well. Consumers aren't keen on this battle and frankly both platforms deserve low sales. DVD is a safe bet that looks "good enough"
Clearly the sale did work as the numbers of HD DVD standalones has improved so your last point was clearly an off the mark non sequitor.
Someone will try to pervert that into a good thing. Just watch.
The only thing perverted is your logic. You're the posting equivalent of a root canal. Have fun pounding your chest and wasting more bits.
Summary:
HD DVD- "sales aren't going quite as well as we dreamt early in the year"
Knee jerk AI posters- "HD DVD is dead!!!" "Game over"
Consumers aren't keen to spending $28 a movie and buying into a player platform with fractured studios. I myself am willing to take the risk if the players are cheap. I bought into HD DVD at $249 I'd do the same with Bluray at the same cost. However I'm an enthusiast, many consumers want to keep expenses low.
Non sequitor. It's clear that Toshiba wasn't going to hit 1.8 million HD DVD players in North America in 2007. I thought that prediction was bold. If they can hit a million then they're doing fine because Blu-ray sales are also missing targets as well. Consumers aren't keen on this battle and frankly both platforms deserve low sales. DVD is a safe bet that looks "good enough"
Ahh...see, just what I said. It's really not a problem! After all, you expected they'd never make it. Man, I'm like Carnac in here.
Clearly the sale did work as the numbers of HD DVD standalones has improved so your last point was clearly an off the mark non sequitor.
Uh, it didn't work well enough. Of course the number of players have improved. It's not like they wouldn't sell at all when they weren't on sale. They sold a bit better with the sale, I'm sure. I like how you lowered the bar to sea level there.
[quote[
The only thing perverted is your logic. You're the posting equivalent of a root canal. Have fun pounding your chest and wasting more bits. [/quote]
Now you're just getting nasty. I'm not chest thumping at all. While I'm on the blu-ray side of things, I really don't care of HD-DVD wins. I just don't see it happening right now. You're the one who for some reason refuses to acknowledge reality. Did you notice that I pointed out some anecdotal evidence of HD-DVD having a slight advantage...just a few posts ago?
Summary:
HD DVD- "sales aren't going quite as well as we dreamt early in the year"
Knee jerk AI posters- "HD DVD is dead!!!" "Game over"
Consumers aren't keen to spending $28 a movie and buying into a player platform with fractured studios. I myself am willing to take the risk if the players are cheap. I bought into HD DVD at $249 I'd do the same with Bluray at the same cost. However I'm an enthusiast, many consumers want to keep expenses low.
That summary is ridiculous. Here is more realistic one.
"HD-DVD sales are lagging behind BRD significantly, by a margin of about 2 to 1 on average. Despite much lower (and falling) player prices and an arguably better brand name, HD-DVD has not caught up with blu-ray disc sales, nor is it gaining ground at all. In fact, blu-ray appears to be widening its lead. Additionally, blu-ray has far greater studio support at present
Currently, neither format has won widespread acceptance as the defacto next gen DVD standard, though nearly all indications are that blu-ray is likely to take the prize."
If you can't accept that summary, I don't know what to tell you. Now it's true that I have been poking you in the eye with a stick a bit, just for my own amusement. But in reality, the knee-jerk reaction is from those, like you, that cling to useless and meaningless stats that deceptively make it appear that HD-DVD is keeping pace or gaining. It's not.
Now another summary. Why blu-ray will win:
1. Greater studio support
2. The PS3 is a quality blu-ray player, and it comes standard.
3. Current BD sales lead is large, possibly too large to overcome.
4. HD-DVD proponents are now openly hoping for Universal players instead of victory
5. Recent price cuts in HD-DVD players are not a good thing for the format. They are cutting the price for a reason...they have to. The price cuts have not produced the results desired.
You may disagree, but I'd wager that the studios and manufacturers already know HD-DVD is going to lose, perhaps except Toshiba...which probably also knows, it's just deep down in places it doesn't talk about at parties.
The only saving grace for HD-DVD right now is that neither format has really engaged the masses yet. In other words, we're only in the third quarter. But the score is 35-14 and the clock is running.
Someone will try to pervert that into a good thing. Just watch.
Damn, how right you were...it surely didn't take long. Maybe it wasn't full fledged perversions of this information, but it sure looked like rationalizing to me.
Also, in a bit of interesting news in regard to this, we have Toshiba slashing forecasts, and we have Sony increasing forecasts, six-fold...
Sony May Hike Blu-ray Shipments by 600 Percent
The company says demand will soar due to exclusive titles.
By Phillip Swann
Washington, D.C. (June 12, 2007) -- Sony said yesterday that it might increase shipments of Blu-ray players in the U.S. by 600 percent this year.
That's according to an article from Bloomberg News.
The news service reports that Sony believes that Blu-ray sales will rise dramatically this year due to the exclusive release of several blockbuster films on the high-def DVD format.
Blu-ray and rival HD DVD, which is backed by Toshiba, are battling for the new high-def DVD audience. But four of the eight major film studios are backing Blu-ray exclusively with only one (Universal) supporting HD DVD exclusively.
Sony shipped less than 100,000 Blu-ray players in the U.S. last year, but could ship up to 600,000 in 2007, according to Randy Waynick, a company senior vice president.
`"You'll see growth in multiples of five or six times," Waynick said, according to Bloomberg.
He said actual shipments will depend on how competitive Blu-ray becomes. But Waynick added that the upcoming release of several blockbuster films on Blu-ray should drive sales. He said 14 or 15 of the top 20 films this year will be Blu-ray exclusives.
"The movies are very compelling," Waynick said, according to Bloomberg.
Yes, quite complelling.
Some additional observations. The price point arguement for either format doesn't hold water as long as there's a format war.
I was in the Everett Best Buy last Saturday killing time. Talked to one of the sales people who is both a video enthusiast and a gamer and is estatic about his PS3. I also checked out the HD format disc display, Both formats had about equal shelf space but couldn't tell which had the most number of titles as some of the discs were displayed by the spine while others were by the cover. I definitely wasn't interested enough to actually count the number of discs. I also though B-r was supposed to be more expensive but on the title I found in both formats the B-r was $5.00 less. Is that normal?
Finally, I just wish the whole format war would go away.
Non sequitor. It's clear that Toshiba wasn't going to hit 1.8 million HD DVD players in North America in 2007. I thought that prediction was bold.
WHAT??????????
You've been quoting expected Toshiba sales for months now and not even once did you say that they were unrealistic.
On page 39 you said:
"Ahhhhhh things are looking rosey ...I must say.
The penetration of HD DVD should be 3 million players by next March according to Toshiba. They are aiming for %60 of the HD playback share. I think they'll get there and when they do expect to see all studios but Sony shed their exclusive baggage."
So you believe that they will sell 2 million players in the first three months of 2008?
Ahh...see, just what I said. It's really not a problem! After all, you expected they'd never make it. Man, I'm like Carnac in here.
I didn't infer it wasn't a problem. I said that I thought Toshiba's numbers given at CES 2007 where high. I couldn't see HD DVD selling1.8 million players in 2007 based on the first 6 months of player sales data. However if they hit 1 million players that's a more attainable goal. The mistake is to think that the same forcast isn't befalling Blu-ray which isn't going to be able to hit any lofty goals either. Both formats have overestimated how many consumers would pony up hundreds for a new player and pay twice as much for discs. Add in a silly format battle and it's easy to see why the formats aren't taking off.
Uh, it didn't work well enough. Of course the number of players have improved. It's not like they wouldn't sell at all when they weren't on sale. They sold a bit better with the sale, I'm sure. I like how you lowered the bar to sea level there.
There were no predetermined goals of the sale so "they didn't work well enough" is simply you adding phantom metrics. There has been a sales improvement in standalone players in Brick and Mortar and on Amazon.com but the rebate came without any pretense of overtaking Blu-ray or hitting a goal.
[quote[
The only thing perverted is your logic. You're the posting equivalent of a root canal. Have fun pounding your chest and wasting more bits.
Now you're just getting nasty. I'm not chest thumping at all. While I'm on the blu-ray side of things, I really don't care of HD-DVD wins. I just don't see it happening right now. You're the one who for some reason refuses to acknowledge reality. Did you notice that I pointed out some anecdotal evidence of HD-DVD having a slight advantage...just a few posts ago?
That summary is ridiculous. Here is more realistic one.
"HD-DVD sales are lagging behind BRD significantly, by a margin of about 2 to 1 on average. Despite much lower (and falling) player prices and an arguably better brand name, HD-DVD has not caught up with blu-ray disc sales, nor is it gaining ground at all. In fact, blu-ray appears to be widening its lead. Additionally, blu-ray has far greater studio support at present
Currently, neither format has won widespread acceptance as the defacto next gen DVD standard, though nearly all indications are that blu-ray is likely to take the prize."
If you can't accept that summary, I don't know what to tell you. Now it's true that I have been poking you in the eye with a stick a bit, just for my own amusement (you bastard!!!
Now another summary. Why blu-ray will win:
1. Greater studio support
2. The PS3 is a quality blu-ray player, and it comes standard.
3. Current BD sales lead is large, possibly too large to overcome.
4. HD-DVD proponents are now openly hoping for Universal players instead of victory
5. Recent price cuts in HD-DVD players are not a good thing for the format. They are cutting the price for a reason...they have to. The price cuts have not produced the results desired.
You may disagree, but I'd wager that the studios and manufacturers already know HD-DVD is going to lose, perhaps except Toshiba...which probably also knows, it's just deep down in places it doesn't talk about at parties.
(Frankly, I'm beginning to see a bit too many similarities with SACD/DVD Audio. Split studios, expensive players and not enough of a qualitative jump over DVD)
The only saving grace for HD-DVD right now is that neither format has really engaged the masses yet. In other words, we're only in the third quarter. But the score is 35-14 and the clock is running.[/QUOTE]
Respones are inline and in red
It's clear that Toshiba wasn't going to hit 1.8 million HD DVD players in North America in 2007. I thought that prediction was bold.
Now THATS funny, it didn't stop you posting in no uncertain terms that you thought they would shift 3 million earlier in the year (or late last, do I REALLY need to go and look through a gazillion posts?)
You were SO sure of this, it was almost like cheerleading, just thought you needed reminding.
WHAT??????????
On page 39 you said:
"Ahhhhhh things are looking rosey ...I must say.
The penetration of HD DVD should be 3 million players by next March according to Toshiba. They are aiming for %60 of the HD playback share. I think they'll get there and when they do expect to see all studios but Sony shed their exclusive baggage."
So you believe that they will sell 2 million players in the first three months of 2008?
Nope...I don't. These PR releases from both sides are getting old. When I begin to regurgitate PR "dream data" then I know I'm not really looking at things and asking the right questions. For Toshiba to hit 1.8 million they'd have to ramp quickly to say 200k players a month and then hit the Xmas selling season hard. When they start announcing press release lauding 100k players sold milestones you start to think that those who ok'd the release about 1.8 million must have been on Meth or something.
Nope...I don't.
Well you did less than two months ago - after they announced the 100,000 players sold.
I don't know whether it's the end of the third quarter, second or even first, but to declare the game over because Toshiba is cutting back its sales estimate is unduly overly optimistic as Toshiba, as well as Sony, has shown a willingness to limp along loosing money in hopes that their supported format will win.
Some additional observations. The price point arguement for either format doesn't hold water as long as there's a format war.
I was in the Everett Best Buy last Saturday killing time. Talked to one of the sales people who is both a video enthusiast and a gamer and is estatic about his PS3. I also checked out the HD format disc display, Both formats had about equal shelf space but couldn't tell which had the most number of titles as some of the discs were displayed by the spine while others were by the cover. I definitely wasn't interested enough to actually count the number of discs. I also though B-r was supposed to be more expensive but on the title I found in both formats the B-r was $5.00 less. Is that normal?
Finally, I just wish the whole format war would go away.
No. Sony has shown it pour gobs of money into a format and utilize it's other assets to win, despite the initial short term costs.
Right now the chains seem to have about equal libraries of titles at this point. Price seems to be between $19-35 all the way around.
WHAT??????????
You've been quoting expected Toshiba sales for months now and not even once did you say that they were unrealistic.
On page 39 you said:
"Ahhhhhh things are looking rosey ...I must say.
The penetration of HD DVD should be 3 million players by next March according to Toshiba. They are aiming for %60 of the HD playback share. I think they'll get there and when they do expect to see all studios but Sony shed their exclusive baggage."
So you believe that they will sell 2 million players in the first three months of 2008?
Exactly. But, given murch's other posts, I think even he is starting to realize...though he's still justifying...
Nope...I don't. These PR releases from both sides are getting old. When I begin to regurgitate PR "dream data" then I know I'm not really looking at things and asking the right questions. For Toshiba to hit 1.8 million they'd have to ramp quickly to say 200k players a month and then hit the Xmas selling season hard. When they start announcing press release lauding 100k players sold milestones you start to think that those who ok'd the release about 1.8 million must have been on Meth or something.
Well you did less than two months ago - after they announced the 100,000 players sold.
http://www.digitalbits.com/#mytwocents
And around the Net this morning, if any of you didn't believe my recent Soapbox take on Microsoft's real intentions in supporting HD-DVD, the company's own spokesman all but confirmed it yesterday at the Digital Hollywood conference in Santa Monica. Here's the relevant bit from a new story at Home Media:
If Microsoft has its way, DVD, Blu-Ray Disc and HD DVD will all be rendered obsolete within 10 years, according to Richard Doherty, Microsoft's program manager for Media Entertainment Convergence.
?I don't know that [HD] will be delivered on an optical disc in five to 10 years,? he said, pointing to downloads and broadband delivery. ?At Microsoft, we'd rather it wasn't [on a disc]."
Doherty later added: ?this will be the last optical [home entertainment] generation. If this one survives."
Hey, that should make HD-DVD fans feel good! That's right... Microsoft, one of HD-DVD's few major corporate supporters, is ALREADY counting on the format's demise. IF this one survives?! Are you kidding me?! They don't want it to survive! Microsoft having an in-house "Office of HD-DVD Evangelism" suddenly makes PERFECT sense. What better way for the company to ensure that HD optical discs die, and their own downloading service takes off, than by actively working to perpetuate the confusion of a format war in the "last optical generation"? Ugh. Don't say we didn't warn you, folks. "Oh, but look... HD-DVD players are cheaper right now!" Yeah. Swell. Would you like fries with that download?
I gotta tell ya, Bill Hunt is making good point after good point on his TwoCents pieces lately.
I don't think it's impossible to sell 2 million HD-DVD units from now to the year end, but is Toshiba crazy like Sony to take a huge lost per unit?...... $99 HD-DVD player would sell more than 2 million by the year end, but that means Toshiba need to bleed in the books like Sony. Oh well, this format war is just going to go little longer, that's all.
The problem is that in any war, if you're not willing to accept pain, you can't advance against the enemy. What makes you think Toshiba isn't already losing money on their players? But if their player sales stay anemic, there's no reason consumers should choose them. It's hugely unrealistic, if you ask me. Even giving them a huge benefit of the doubt, say 200,000 players sold to date, that would mean they'd have to sell an additional 800,000 players by the end of the year. I don't think anybody here can point out a single year-old technology that ramped up sales by 4:1 in six months.
It's clear that Toshiba wasn't going to hit 1.8 million HD DVD players in North America in 2007. I thought that prediction was bold.
You thought nothing of the sort. Folks thought that 2M HD-DVD units by the end of the year was stupid and yet you repeatedly stated that you believed that 2M units would be shipped. The "in North America" caveat now is just smokescreen to the older discussion on numbers. There was no way in hell HD-DVD was moving from 200K units to 2M units in either the US, world wide or even on Fantasy Island when we discussed this in march.
There's no way in hell that they are moving from 150K NA units in June 2007 to 1M units in December 2007 either because their run rates don't support that even with a end of year XMas uptick. If the folks releasing the 1.8M figure were on meth back then then they still are for releasing 1M in June with 8 months to go and abysmal numbers to date.
Sony's 100K units in 2007 was a heck of a lot more realistic...even if the new 600K number seems somewhat optimistic...but not crack smoking 1M optimistic.
That the HD-DVD promotion group only had a 60-40 advantage in standalone players is an abysmal statistic for HD-DVD given the price disparity between the standalones.
I do think HD DVD will deliver 2 million players.
There will be 2 million HD DVD players worldwide by the end of the year.
2 million total players by years end for HD DVD worldwide.
It was a stupid prediction then and its still stupid today. Much less HD-DVD's original 3M worldwide prediction by March 08.
The only reason that Blu-Ray is getting any market traction, meager as it is, is because of the PS3...which everyone (except you and other HD-DVD fanbois) pretty much accepted would be the reality because for the most part HD is a niche product in 2006-2008 and Toshiba had nothing to drive HD-DVD acceptance once MS didn't use it in the 360.
Sony won the console war with respect to BR vs HD-DVD adoption the moment the 360 shipped sans built-in HD-DVD drive regardless of how well or poorly the PS3 does vs the Wii or 360 so long as it sells in the millions. Which it has.
Vinea
The problem is that in any war, if you're not willing to accept pain, you can't advance against the enemy. What makes you think Toshiba isn't already losing money on their players? But if their player sales stay anemic, there's no reason consumers should choose them. It's hugely unrealistic, if you ask me. Even giving them a huge benefit of the doubt, say 200,000 players sold to date, that would mean they'd have to sell an additional 800,000 players by the end of the year. I don't think anybody here can point out a single year-old technology that ramped up sales by 4:1 in six months.
You wanna bet?... Toshiba can lower their low end player price to $99 for just last three months of the year and they can easily sell 800k units. It's just matter of Toshiba willing the bleed more in the books...
Here's an example of how consumers react to price drops(approximately $100 off deal on each model). This is a picture of amazon site when HD-DVD promo discount was on....
Sales only lasted for few days and it was able to place all three Tosiba HD-DVD players on the top three DVD list. It's not too late for anything yet....
There are way more DVD players available which means that the sold DVD players are divided into several players (almost 300 players and then there are recorders too).
And again, Amazon ranks really can't be used for anything since according to them the HD DVD version of Planet Earth would've been the top selling HD title in the last few months, but it has never been #1 in actual sales according til Nielsen Videoscan.
All it says is that Amazon is selling more HD-A20 than Oppo DV-981HD.
There are way more DVD players available which means that the sold DVD players are divided into several players (almost 300 players and then there are recorders too).
And again, Amazon ranks really can't be used for anything since according to them the HD DVD version of Planet Earth would've been the top selling HD title in the last few months, but it has never been #1 in actual sales according til Nielsen Videoscan.
are you sure it isn't the nielsen and amzon results in question? It's hard to believe any of them since HD-DVD is a favorable choice from the enthusiasts.... even from the neutral boys. I don't think the market is driven by the J6P right now...but these enthusiast are pushing the hidef market and press doesn't truely reflect how market is moving.
Nope...I don't. These PR releases from both sides are getting old. When I begin to regurgitate PR "dream data" then I know I'm not really looking at things and asking the right questions. For Toshiba to hit 1.8 million they'd have to ramp quickly to say 200k players a month and then hit the Xmas selling season hard. When they start announcing press release lauding 100k players sold milestones you start to think that those who ok'd the release about 1.8 million must have been on Meth or something.
I'd bet money on him saying "I told you so" IF Toshiba managed to sell 2 million, I'd also bet money on him saying "I've said it all along"
I have never seen a more messed up arguing for the sake of it, twit online since oh I don't know? John Dvorak
1.) the included A/V breakout cable with three RCA plugs? That isn't component, that's COMPOSITE and RCA stereo pair. So while it is true that they include cables in the box to connect to your TV or HDTV, it is in the lowest possible common denominator plug. As a gaming platform, there's some logic to it, but as a high end A/V device, this comes across as just plain cheap for a $600 item.
2.) No HDMI cable included
3.) Only one digital audio output, and it is digital optical - no digital coax. Many high end devices offer both.
4.) No digital optical cable included.
5.) No HDMI cable included. Harrumph.
6.) while an Ethernet cable is included, it is only 9 or so feet long - who has an Ethernet drop or box within 9 feet of their TV stuff? I need a longer one - 12 would have done it for me.
7.) As a gaming device, only one controller included - this works for Internet based gaming, but not 1-on-1 in person.
8.) the controller cable is woefully short - I'd have to put the PS3 three feet in front of the TV to have the cable long enough to reach me sitting down
9.) As a Blu-ray player, the "this is a gaming platform" is reinforced by the fact that there is no "normal" A/V remote control included - until my remote gets here, I have to use a game controller to play back (once I get it set up). Awkward.
10.) Update - now I have a #10 - as a media device, there is no hardware disc eject on the device - you have to do it through the remote or a controller.
1) Does a Toshiba HD-DVD player or any blu-ray player come with component cables? (I don't know, this is a sincere question)
2) Does a Toshiba HD-DVD player or any blu-ray player come with HDMI cables?
3) Use optical, same level of quality as coax, every decent receiver has it (and HDTV). Who cares if it doesn't have both?
4) Does a Toshiba HD-DVD player or any blu-ray player come with an optical audio cable? Go buy one you cheap prick.
5) So troll like it has to be repeated to reach ten. See 2.
6) Use WiFi.
7) Every system comes with one controller, buy another one.
8) It comes with a charging cable, plug it in when the controller needs charging. If you have an extra controller or charge it when you are not using it then there is no issue as you don't need the cable to play. Isn't the point of wireless to not play with a cable connect to the controller?
9) Buy the remote.
10) Awesome, now a complete lie. There definitely is an eject button, I think this guy is retarded or something.
I see a theme here, this guy is just too cheap to buy the cable he wants to use (or have one laying around), buy a wireless router like everyone else has, play wirelessly or buy a remote.