Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (2007)

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  • Reply 1901 of 4650
    kupan787kupan787 Posts: 586member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    I gotta laugh everytime I see yet another Neilsen Videscan statistic.



    I know its "the best we got", but Videoscan sucks. It doesn't count Walmart or Amazon, which are two HUGE players. It also only counts "some Internet sites", and who knows what is included in that. We are slowly moving out of "early adopter market" space, and more consumer driven store purchase today. But most people in that early group are smart, and will shop around online for disks (probably not picked up by Neilsen), rather then just walk into a local Best Buy (wait, is that even included in Neilsen numbers???).



    For years I have heard complaints about the Neilsen TV rating system. The Neilsen (TV) ratings system, from which all TV companies make their money, is based on so-called ?Nielsen families? that have a special box attached to their TV sets. This box basically reports what they are viewing, and Neilsen then ?blows up? the numbers to account for the whole population. So if they are doing anything similar here for video numbers, I take it all with a large grain of salt.
  • Reply 1902 of 4650
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,431member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    I gotta laugh everytime someone says some large corporation has their best interests at heart whether it be Apple, Google, Sony or Toshiba. Toshiba? ROFL. Heck, I'm much more inclined to say that MS has my interests at heart more than some CE company. MS has screwed partners but rarely customers. Can't quite say the same of Sony.



    Vinea



    I don't know...when the proprietors of HD DVD stonewalled adding Region Controls to the players and kept the DRM down to strictly AACS and HDCP for HDMI I gotta think they were thinking about consumer friendliness. However consumers are so freakin clueless. They actually think ripping DVDs is legal. How many Apple TV reviews have I read where the person complains that the ATV doesn't playback their ripped DVD. Hello? Bueller? Unless the DVD author explicitly allows recording (which is rare as hens teeth) consumers are breaking DMCA with every DVD rip. It's become so ubiquitous they don't even understand it's illegal anymore.



    Thus if consumers don't understand the basic tenents of DVD copying and it's legality haven't a freakin iota of a clue when it comes to the ramification of DRM in HD DVD as compared to Blu-ray. <shudder>
  • Reply 1903 of 4650
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,431member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by kupan787 View Post


    I know its "the best we got", but Videoscan sucks. It doesn't count Walmart or Amazon, which are two HUGE players. It also only counts "some Internet sites", and who knows what is included in that. We are slowly moving out of "early adopter market" space, and more consumer driven store purchase today. But most people in that early group are smart, and will shop around online for disks (probably not picked up by Neilsen), rather then just walk into a local Best Buy (wait, is that even included in Neilsen numbers???).



    For years I have heard complaints about the Neilsen TV rating system. The Neilsen (TV) ratings system, from which all TV companies make their money, is based on so-called “Nielsen families” that have a special box attached to their TV sets. This box basically reports what they are viewing, and Neilsen then “blows up” the numbers to account for the whole population. So if they are doing anything similar here for video numbers, I take it all with a large grain of salt.



    If you don't count Wal-Mart (The biggest retail chain for DVD sales) and Amazon (the biggest online retailer) then your results are moot. They become the results from Best Buy/Circuit City/Fry's and a smattering of smaller regional chains.



    I trust that the studios have empirical data about their movies sales and I also believe that Blu-rays sales are worrisome. Note...everytime there's a bit of a lag there's a "Pep rally" Press Release coming from someone in the BDA talking about how thrilled they are that they sold 100k copies of Casino Royale to retailers or that a $24 title amazing outsold a $80 and that proves Blu-ray superiority. It's really a laugher.
  • Reply 1904 of 4650
    oldcodger73oldcodger73 Posts: 707member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post


    Is it BD-J 1.1/2.0 compliant? I don't think $499 BD standalone player will save BD, because most AV enthusiasts probably already own a PS3 as BD player. Now with upscaling enabled on PS3, most BD players become less of a deal at the price range. Most knowledgeable AV enthusiasts would not touch it unless it's fully complaint with BD-J and comes with lots of extra features at $499. However, $499 price may be little more appealing, but it's still out of the desirable price range for J6P.



    I didn't realize Blu-ray needed saving. Did I miss something?



    I checked the specs of the Sony $499 player on Crutchfield and while it's definitely a step in the right direction, it still doesn't meet my needs. I'm using a receiver without HDMI inputs, so I need a player that has 7.1 analog out, the Sony only has 5.1. I have an extra HDMI input on the plasma so picture isn't a problem. Hopefully later in the year there will be a B-d player available that does or I've convinced SWMBO that we need a new reciever. By then, there should be enough of a library of quality B-d titles available to make buying worthwhile.



    While the PS3 gets great reviews as a player, some people prefer a stand-alone player, as they generally have more features and bells and whistles.
  • Reply 1905 of 4650
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post






    They "screwed" Netscape (not a partner but whatever) but what the heck. Netscape was charging for their browser. IE was free. Netscape wanted $99 per users for commercial customers. (Note: Google is the same way...Google Earth is expensive for commercial users but Virtual Earth was free the last time I checked...a while back admittedly)



    They "screwed" Digital Research but what the heck? DR was charging folks $240 for CP/M when MS/IBM was selling DOS for $60.



    They "screwed" IBM but what the heck? IBM was trying to lock in folks to OS2 so they could keep selling PCs at $3000 when all the clone makers were pushing prices down.



    They "screwed" Sun but what the heck? Sun was charging customers $700 per copy of Solaris X86 while Windows was far cheaper. Solaris on unix was $20K or something if I remember right.



    Meh...usually they screwed other companies but the side benefit for consumers was lower price. I'm sure they screwed consumers directly too but the big items that typically comes up about how predatory MS is are these particular events. But IMHO its not like they are the music industry willing to sue their own client base like RIAA.



    Vinea
  • Reply 1906 of 4650
    marzetta7marzetta7 Posts: 1,323member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by kupan787 View Post


    I know its "the best we got", but Videoscan sucks. It doesn't count Walmart or Amazon, which are two HUGE players. It also only counts "some Internet sites", and who knows what is included in that. We are slowly moving out of "early adopter market" space, and more consumer driven store purchase today. But most people in that early group are smart, and will shop around online for disks (probably not picked up by Neilsen), rather then just walk into a local Best Buy (wait, is that even included in Neilsen numbers???).



    For years I have heard complaints about the Neilsen TV rating system. The Neilsen (TV) ratings system, from which all TV companies make their money, is based on so-called ?Nielsen families? that have a special box attached to their TV sets. This box basically reports what they are viewing, and Neilsen then ?blows up? the numbers to account for the whole population. So if they are doing anything similar here for video numbers, I take it all with a large grain of salt.



    And somehow do you presume that SALES RANKINGS from Amazon are a better indicator?



    Moreover, I don't know if you and Murch missed my last post in regards to your claim here and elsewhere, but AMAZON IS INCLUDED IN THE NIELSEN NUMBERS. Only Wal-mart from what I've read and understand is the only chain missing. Best Buy, Circuit City, etc are also included. So, in essence, it's a fairly decent indicator of the market, and much superior in relation to SALES RANKINGS alone from Amazon.



    So, what sucks is that you don't have your information straight. Do a little investigating before trying to slam a third party independent resource that does indeed represent the majority of the industry.
  • Reply 1907 of 4650
    marzetta7marzetta7 Posts: 1,323member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post


    Blu-ray will win the war



    Good, detailed article with their facts straight, unlike Harry Knowles. Some highlights:
    • (Harry Knowles) knows his movies and he is big-time plugged into the theatrical side of the business. He's entitled to his opinion, and I respect him for speaking his mind. But when it comes to the home video side, Harry's maybe a little out of his element. He seems to be rather new to the whole high-def disc thing. And unfortunately, he's got many of his facts wrong.

    • But we CANNOT join him in recommending the HD-DVD format to ANYONE, no matter how cheap.

    • We've been involved with the home video industry for ten years now. Way back in 1997, when most people didn't even know what DVD was, we were telling people it was going to be the biggest thing since the CD. We were having conversations with the Hollywood studios that first year, where even the most senior studio executives were telling us we were crazy to think DVD was ever going to be anything more than a niche format. But we were right then. We gave the world it's first look at Circuit City's Divx format, and then said it was going to fail. We were right about that too. We were right about the need for the studios to support DVD's anamorphic widescreen capability, to ensure the highest video quality possible at the time, and we lobbied them hard to do so. Here at The Bits, we interact on a daily basis with studio personnel at all levels, with authoring/technical staffers, with DVD producers, with filmmakers and with hardware manufacturers. So we're pretty good at having our finger on the pulse of the home video industry, and knowing what the trends are. And anyone who has read The Bits since we started will know that, over the years, we've been right about a LOT more things than we've been wrong. (So who knows more insiders, the guys at Digital Bits, or HMurchison?)

    • Our readers trust us to give it to them straight, and to help guide them through the confusing home video landscape in such a way that they don't end up wasting their money. HD-DVD is a great format technically, but its business model is an utter and complete disaster from which it will not recover.

    • Let's get back to that business model problem I mentioned a moment ago. It should come as a surprise to no one that Toshiba has been losing money on their HD-DVD players (as is typical for hardware of any new format in the first few years - BD manufacturers deal with this as well). But in the last couple of weeks, the company has been slashing prices dramatically and offering $100 rebates, effectively bringing the cost of the HD-A2 to $299. That seems like a great deal, and Harry certainly jumped on it. Hell, we wouldn't be surprised to see Toshiba slash down to $199 or even less by the holidays at this rate. But it means that Toshiba is losing even MORE money on HD-DVD hardware than they were before, which can't have a positive impact on their overall business. I don't know if I'd go so far as to call this a fire sale, but it sure smacks of desperation on Toshiba's part. But there's another, bigger problem with this as well. What other major HD-DVD manufacturer wants to compete with that?

    • The HD-DVD camp has long touted cheaper players as its big trump card, even going so far as to promote future super-cheap, off-brand models at CES this past January. But all this does is basically ensure that FEW OTHER MAJOR MANUFACTURERS WILL JOIN THE HD-DVD CAMP. Where's the business incentive to do so? If you can't make a profit, there's no point. Sure, LG and Samsung are making pricey combo players available that will play both HD-DVD and Blu-ray, but that's only because they know that a small enthusiast market will be willing to pay $1200+ for one. Neither has announced cheaper HD-DVD-only players to compete with Toshiba's and we think they're unlikely to do so.

    • So how do we foresee this format war playing out? Our prediction is that by this time next year, Universal will have gone format neutral, agreeing to support Blu-ray Disc in addition to HD-DVD. It could happen at CES in January 2008, it could even happen sooner. When that happens, and we do believe it's a matter of when and not if, this format war will effectively be over.

    • The bottom line remains the same: Any way we slice it, when we look at ALL the facts, we think Blu-ray Disc remains the best bet in this format war, and the safer bet for consumers. That's just the way we see it.

    • We simply CANNOT and WILL NOT recommend to our readers that they adopt a format that only has the full support of just a HANDFUL of major hardware manufacturers and ONLY A HANDFUL of the Hollywood studios - no matter how cheap the price - when a format of EQUAL quality and FAR GREATER studio and manufacturer support exists.




    I think this pretty much sums it up! Great points by Bill Hunt, and in a great logical fashion points out the logical fallacies of HD DVD proponents and why Blu-ray will win this format ware. Excellent post, excellent commentary by Mr. Hunt, and dare I say, excellent prediction and reccomendation...



    Quote:

    Simply put: If you're ready to get into high-def discs... we say Go Blu.



  • Reply 1908 of 4650
    marzetta7marzetta7 Posts: 1,323member
    Pioneer BDP-94HD with Exclusive Superman Reissue



    http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=236



    Quote:

    As we reported about a month ago, the new Pioneer BDP-94HD Blu-ray player will come with two packed in Blu-ray movies which feature Dolby TrueHD audio tracks (so that owners can demo this new feature of the Elite line). We have now learned that the two titles included will be 'Ghost Rider: Extended Cut' and an exclusive version of 'Superman Returns' with Dolby TrueHD and PCM tracks (the previous version only had a Dolby Digital track).



    It is still unknown how long this disc will remain exclusive Pioneer, but with only the first 2,500 players getting a copy of the disc, it certainly doesn't seem like it will be long for before Warner Brothers begins replacing all copies with the updated version. No date has been set for the player's release, but with pictures already surfacing of pallets of players awaiting shipment to retailers, we expect an early July date.



    Well, it's about time Warner does something to make up for lost Blu time.
  • Reply 1909 of 4650
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    fantastic fantasy from fanatic fanboys......... wonder when we'll see a post from a true BD supporting enthusiast on this thread. My filters are getting full with BD BS from this thread alone.



    The bottom line is that no expert on the matter would make a future prediction on the hidef format war. It's too early too soon.
  • Reply 1910 of 4650
    kupan787kupan787 Posts: 586member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by marzetta7 View Post


    And somehow do you presume that SALES RANKINGS from Amazon are a better indicator?



    Nope, never said that.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by marzetta7 View Post


    Moreover, I don't know if you and Murch missed my last post in regards to your claim here and elsewhere, but AMAZON IS INCLUDED IN THE NIELSEN NUMBERS.



    Link please (not to your post, but to the source saying that Amazon was included in Nielsen)
  • Reply 1911 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    I see. You can't come up with anything to rebut the guys at The Digital Bits, so they're now a bunch of "fanatic fanboys." Oooookay.
  • Reply 1912 of 4650
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,431member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post


    I see. You can't come up with anything to rebut the guys at The Digital Bits, so they're now a bunch of "fanatic fanboys." Oooookay.



    It's well known to enthusiasts that Bill Hunt has been shilling for Blu-ray since the beginning.
  • Reply 1913 of 4650
    davegeedavegee Posts: 2,765member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    It's well known to enthusiasts that Bill Hunt has been shilling for Blu-ray since the beginning.



    That's funny... I could basically say the same thing about someone else...
  • Reply 1914 of 4650
    northgatenorthgate Posts: 4,461member
    So it's basically 100 against 1 in this forum. And I find it funny that the 100 doesn't consider themselves "fanboys" or schilling or rooting for their preferred format. But boy they hit HMurch hard for being an HD-DVD "fanboy".



    Odd.
  • Reply 1915 of 4650
    kupan787kupan787 Posts: 586member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Northgate View Post


    So it's basically 100 against 1 in this forum.



    Hardly. I think it is probably more like 40/30/30 (Blu-ray/HD DVD/Neutral), in terms of rooters. As far as "supporters" (being people who have made purchases to back there side), it is more like 60 to 40 (HD DVD over Blu-ray)



    Quote:

    And I find it funny that the 100 doesn't consider themselves "fanboys" or schilling or rooting for their preferred format. But boy they hit HMurch hard for being an HD-DVD "fanboy".



    I agree with you there.
  • Reply 1916 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    Well, if Hunt is nothing but a silly fanboy, it should be a simple matter to refute his arguments, shouldn't it? Just where are all the other big name companies in the HD DVD standalone arena? Why should anyone like Panasonic or Samsung develop low-priced HD DVD players only to have to compete with Toshiba's own cutthroat pricing, never mind the fast-approaching Chinese?



    Compare with Harry Knowles, whom Murch was all too happy to bring up, and his ridiculous statements like Blu-ray players can't play his DVD library and there are over 500 HD DVD releases available and fewer than 70 for Blu-ray. Is this really the kind of person you want as an advocate for your format? (And what's this about him owning 9000 DVDs? Who'd need so many? Where would you find the time to watch them all? At one disc per day, that's over 24 years before he can watch them all, assuming he doesn't buy any more. He should live so long.) I prefer the one who gives some impression of knowing what he's talking about.
  • Reply 1917 of 4650
    jlljll Posts: 2,713member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    Perpetual motion forward. The Top 10 of discs on Amazon swings depending on who has the hotter release. If Blu-ray is in an unassailable position no amount of hot titles for HD DVD would usurp their position.



    Stop using those Amazon sales ranks, please! Planet Earth on HD DVD should be the top selling title on both formats last week according to the ranks, but according to sales data it's not even the best selling HD DVD.



    BD is about to cross the 100,000 a week line while HD DVD is still below 50,000 a week. It also seems that whenever the sales percentages get lower concerning BD it's not because of HD DVD selling more that week but more often because BD is selling less.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    I gotta laugh everytime I see yet another Neilsen Videscan statistic. Common sense dictates a 4 studio advantage is going to yield more disc sales.



    Again. What number? 90:10? 70:30 isn't high enough to you. BD is outselling HD DVD every week.
  • Reply 1918 of 4650
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 18,020member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    Your arguments are based around your wild opinion that you support with bupkis amount of links or supporting data. At least Marzetta7 backs up his points with links and other data. You bring nothing. "Wide" is subjective. I'll concur with the belief that Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD 2:1 or roughly 60/40. That's to be expected when it enjoys a 4 studio advantage. What I disagee with is that Blu-ray is going to pull away. Fox has slowed their releases down to a trickle. Lionsgate has been crappy about releases. Thank God for Disney because very few other studios are delivering solid Tier 1 releases.



    Wait...hold on. "Wide" is subjective, but you agree HD-DVD is being outsold 2:1? How can you actually post that in the same paragraph, the same post...or the same day?



    Now as for links: What are you attacking me on that point? The data is widely <smirk> available and you yourself understand and know it. Why repost the fact that Blu-ray is outselling HD-DVD? It seems to me that in this case, it's the people who consistently link to and reference bullshit, meaningless stats are the ones that can't support their arguments.



    I repeat: The main stat is the total sales number. And Blu-ray is winning that battle at LEAST 2:1.



    What's really comical is how you take a weakness for HD-DVD (and advantage for Blu-ray) and try to turn it into a justification for YOUR argument. That, as my 4 year old daughter would say, "is a tricky one." The prime example is studio support, which is a major factor in any format's success. Blu-ray is easily winning that battle, and yet you dismiss it by posting:



    Quote:

    That's to be expected when it enjoys a 4 studio advantage.



    Yeah, and the Philadelphia Phillies are expected to suck because of their management and ownership. But they still suck. That's just the way it is. You've become nothing more than a straight up HD-DVD apologist. Period.
  • Reply 1919 of 4650
    julesjules Posts: 149member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Northgate View Post


    So it's basically 100 against 1 in this forum. And I find it funny that the 100 doesn't consider themselves "fanboys" or schilling or rooting for their preferred format. But boy they hit HMurch hard for being an HD-DVD "fanboy".



    Odd.



    Err yeah, thats because he speaks complete bollocks about 90% of the time.
  • Reply 1920 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    I'll concur with the belief that Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD 2:1 or roughly 60/40. That's to be expected when it enjoys a 4 studio advantage. What I disagee with is that Blu-ray is going to pull away.



    Let's rephrase that a little, eh? "I'll concur with the belief that Windows computers are outselling Macs 95% to 3%. That's to be expected when it enjoys a 500,000 application advantage. What I disagee with is that Windows is going to pull away." Leaving aside the larger percentages, does that make any sense?



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    I don't know...when the proprietors of HD DVD stonewalled adding Region Controls to the players and kept the DRM down to strictly AACS and HDCP for HDMI I gotta think they were thinking about consumer friendliness. However consumers are so freakin clueless. They actually think ripping DVDs is legal. How many Apple TV reviews have I read where the person complains that the ATV doesn't playback their ripped DVD. Hello? Bueller? Unless the DVD author explicitly allows recording (which is rare as hens teeth) consumers are breaking DMCA with every DVD rip. It's become so ubiquitous they don't even understand it's illegal anymore.



    Thus if consumers don't understand the basic tenents of DVD copying and it's legality haven't a freakin iota of a clue when it comes to the ramification of DRM in HD DVD as compared to Blu-ray. <shudder>



    What in Sam Hill are you talking about? If all you're talking about is the legality of copying discs, then all you need is managed copy, which will make it legal and easy. BD+ or any other differences in DRM between Blu-ray or HD DVD are completely irrelevant. Both will support managed copy, which is part of the AACS spec, so what difference would it make to the average non-pirate consumer whether Blu-ray has more DRM? Will a Blu-ray disc with managed copy somehow be harder to copy than an HD DVD disc? It'll be all controlled by the studio, not the DRM.
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