Strong Mac, iPod growth may lift Apple past Street estimates

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
Apple Inc., which reports results for its fiscal first quarter of 2007 after the close of the market on Wednesday, is likely to meet or slightly beat consensus estimates with help from robust sales of Macs and a rebound in iPod shipments, according to American Technology Research.



"Based on our analysis, we believe Apple is on track to report results in-line to slightly above consensus at $6.4 billion and $0.78, but well above Apple's guidance of $6.0-6.2 billion and $0.70-0.73," analyst Shaw Wu wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.



Wu, noting that consensus estimates have moved up considerably over the past month to catch up to his once-above-consensus view, is modeling the company to report earnings of $0.79 per share on revenue of $6.4 billion.



His breakdown calls for continued strength in the Mac business to account for 38 percent of Apple's first quarter revenue, with overall shipments rising 11 percent sequentially to 1.8 million units.



On the iPod side -- which he believes will account for another 40 percent of total revenue -- the analyst expects to see "a continued rebound" of 77 percent sequential growth to 15.5 million units, based on strength in iPod shuffle and special edition red iPod nanos. Â*



Looking ahead to Apple's second fiscal quarter ending March, Wu said consensus out-quarter revenue estimates "appear reasonable" for the first time in over a year. Still, he sees the company guiding conservatively, but in-line, to $5.1-5.3 billion in revenue. His own model currently stands at $5.2 billion and $0.63 earnings-per share, versus consensus estimates of $5.2 billion and $0.60.



"We are forecasting a large sequential decline in iPods to 9.3 million units, but believe this will be offset by Apple TV shipping in February," Wu told clients.Â*"As we have mentioned before, we believe Apple TV with its attractive price point of $299 could be a surprise hit."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 33
    solsunsolsun Posts: 763member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    "We are forecasting a large sequential decline in iPods to 9.3 million units, but believe this will be offset by Apple TV shipping in February," Wu told clients.*"As we have mentioned before, we believe Apple TV with its attractive price point of $299 could be a surprise hit."



    Hmm. I'm very skeptical about Apple Tv being a surprise hit... $299 for the device plus $179 for the Apple 802.11n router is $478, a hefty price to pay for it's limited functionality of getting "near dvd quality" iTunes media without surround sound to the living room... Especially when a $19 iPod AV cable will essentially do the same trick, albeit a less elegant method and without on screen menus, but still, the difference between $478 and $19 is significant when you consider that both methods will accomplish the same end result.
  • Reply 2 of 33
    Split Split Split
  • Reply 3 of 33
    cubertcubert Posts: 728member
    Shaw Wu!



    Gehsundheit.
  • Reply 4 of 33
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mwswami View Post


    Split Split Split





    Yep, Yep, Yep!
  • Reply 5 of 33
    I still say Apple will come in with 2MM mac units, although I think the iPod average selling point has dropped and we will end up with earnings per share of about $0.81.



    The March quarter will be a little slower, but if mac unit sales hit the 2MM/quarter critical mass, it should be a good ride for the next 12 months!
  • Reply 6 of 33
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,525member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by NVRsayNVR View Post


    Yep, Yep, Yep!



    so what?, so what?, so what?
  • Reply 7 of 33
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solsun View Post


    Hmm. I'm very skeptical about Apple Tv being a surprise hit... $299 for the device plus $179 for the Apple 802.11n router is $478, a hefty price to pay for it's limited functionality of getting "near dvd quality" iTunes media without surround sound to the living room... Especially when a $19 iPod AV cable will essentially do the same trick, albeit a less elegant method and without on screen menus, but still, the difference between $478 and $19 is significant when you consider that both methods will accomplish the same end result.

    1. You don't have to buy both devices.

    2. There is no prerequisite to purchase media from iTunes.

    3. I get surround sound with my HDMI compatible devices.

  • Reply 8 of 33
    boogabooga Posts: 1,077member
    Apple TV does 720p, which is dramatically better than the 480p that DVD maxes out at. In addition, since it supports both HDMI and optical audio out, I'm not sure why you assume it's limited to non-surround sound. (If it is, it's certainly not a hardware limitation.) In addition, since all recent Intel Macs have the 802.11n support, you don't NEED a new base station if you have one of those.



    So instead of comparing it to a $20 patch cable which will give you 1/4 of the resolution and a PITA connection to your system, why not compare it to an $800 TiVo Series 3 and a cable TV subscription of $40/mo.



    Incidentally, it might make even more sense in England where I believe they have to pay television licenses for receivers, but the law hasn't caught up to internet-distributed video yet.
  • Reply 9 of 33
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Booga View Post


    [W]hy not compare it to an $800 TiVo Series 3 and a cable TV subscription of $40/mo.



    You'll have to add in a a TV tuner from Migilia or EyeTV to make for a more fair analogy.
  • Reply 10 of 33
    irelandireland Posts: 17,616member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mwswami View Post


    Split Split Split



    They wont split them until they hit $109. Either way, it's just psychological.
  • Reply 11 of 33
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,293member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post
    1. You don't have to buy both devices.

    2. There is no prerequisite to purchase media from iTunes.

    3. I get surround sound with my HDMI compatible devices.




    I was hoping to hear that, so my current Netgear Router will be able to stream Wi-Fi to my (ordered) Apple TV at full 720p right? No need for the new router.
  • Reply 12 of 33
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,293member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post
    1. You don't have to buy both devices.

    2. There is no prerequisite to purchase media from iTunes.

    3. I get surround sound with my HDMI compatible devices.




    Follow up question. If the only HDMI input on the HDTV is already in use, will Component Video and L+R RCA Phono Audio inputs together give the same quality as the HDMI?
  • Reply 13 of 33
    solsunsolsun Posts: 763member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    I was hoping to hear that, so my current Netgear Router will be able to stream Wi-Fi to my (ordered) Apple TV at full 720p right? No need for the new router.





    I have my doubts that 720p will stream as expected over a 802.11g network, but please let us know.. Current quality iTunes media may work, but i would think that 720p may require 802.11n to avoid dropout.
  • Reply 14 of 33
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    Follow up question. If the only HDMI input on the HDTV is already in use, will Component Video and L+R RCA Phono Audio inputs together give the same quality as the HDMI?



    You can use the component video output for HD video, and use the optical audio output for audio. Connect the optical audio output to your surround receiver. If you don't have a receiver, then you have to use the L+R analog audio to the TV. You are limited by your setup, not by Apple TV.
  • Reply 15 of 33
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    I was hoping to hear that, so my current Netgear Router will be able to stream Wi-Fi to my (ordered) Apple TV at full 720p right? No need for the new router.



    The AppleTV will pair directly with the Mac, bypassing the router altogether except for access to the movie trailers.
  • Reply 16 of 33
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,293member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    The AppleTV will pair directly with the Mac, bypassing the router altogether except for access to the movie trailers.



    My base Mac is a Dual G5 Power PC and no WiFi hence the router.
  • Reply 17 of 33
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,293member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bommai View Post


    You can use the component video output for HD video, and use the optical audio output for audio. Connect the optical audio output to your surround receiver. If you don't have a receiver, then you have to use the L+R analog audio to the TV. You are limited by your setup, not by Apple TV.



    I realize 2 HDMIs would be nice (hear that Sony?), but sounds like optical audio and RGB will do the trick. Thanks.
  • Reply 18 of 33
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,293member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solsun View Post


    I have my doubts that 720p will stream as expected over a 802.11g network, but please let us know.. Current quality iTunes media may work, but i would think that 720p may require 802.11n to avoid dropout.



    I kind of suspect this too, I'll post my results as soon as it arrives. I Shoot HD for a living so I am eager to push this baby to the limit. As mentioned in previous post I have a Dual G5 and no WiFi built in so i will need to buy the new base station I think. Hey, no complaints, it's all progress.



    I was hoping anything on Mac could be squirted over to AppleTV so long as it was a compatible format, such as FCPro etc... but I suspect not.
  • Reply 19 of 33
    solsunsolsun Posts: 763member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    I realize 2 HDMIs would be nice (hear that Sony?), but sounds like optical audio and RGB will do the trick. Thanks.





    Is it an older Sony? My new Sony Bravia 40" XBR2 has 3 HDMI inputs..



    http://reviews.cnet.com/Sony_KDL_40X...5.html?tag=lst
  • Reply 20 of 33
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,293member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solsun View Post


    Is it an older Sony? My new Sony Bravia 40" XBR2 has 3 HDMI inputs..



    Yes, being in the business I grabbed one as soon as they came out to look at my HD camera's output on. Only one HDMI.
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