I know - in fact it was just people buying the excitement and now selling the news. I was just trying to point out that one should be careful not to look through a biased filter. Anyone who thinks that the run to 145 was based on "real" things while the drop today was somehow concocted is totally missing the boat.
The stockbrokers make waves to reap a better harvest for themselves .
"I so far haven't heard anyone with an iPhone say they wish it had 3G." As in anyone who currently owns and uses the iPhone. I've heard plenty of people who don't own the iPhone make all types of complaints about it.
Yes. Either you have it and you know what you're talking about, or you don't and it's all speculation.
Speaking for myself, I feel like I have walked through some magical door that shut behind me, and I can't go back to phones/PDAs/smartphones/laptops/etc the way they were, anymore.
Yes. Either you have it and you know what you're talking about, or you don't and it's all speculation.
Speaking for myself, I feel like I have walked through some magical door that shut behind me, and I can't go back to phones/PDAs/smartphones/laptops/etc the way they were, anymore.
No kidding. And either you are buying on legitimate news or selling on "FUD"
I don't own one, but I've used one, and the data speed sucked when I wasn't on wifi. And if I'm going to spend $600 on a phone, it's not going to have that limitation.
And since when is the opinion of a want-to-be customer/opinionmaker unimportant?
No kidding. And either you are buying on legitimate news or selling on "FUD"
I don't own one, but I've used one, and the data speed sucked when I wasn't on wifi. And if I'm going to spend $600 on a phone, it's not going to have that limitation.
And since when is the opinion of a want-to-be customer/opinionmaker unimportant?
What "data" speed? Care to be more specific, considering you've (supposedly) "....used one"?
What "data" speed? Care to be more specific, considering you've (supposedly) "....used one"?
Browsing from web page to web page. Simple stuff. Google, washingtonpost, sites they wanted to use so I showed them how to browse around. I didn't dwell on it, going to 30 pages at a time, because I was configuring it for my client. But downloading email when not on their wifi was very slow, and forget about uploading an email with a few photos they had just taken.
You're the same guy (see above) that refers to the importance of "legitimate news" as opposed to "FUD."
Ug, man this is painful. I said "No kidding. And either you are buying on legitimate news or selling on "FUD" "
I don't know if you are a native english speaker, but the phrasing I used their implies that someone else is doing the talking there, belittling the very suggestion that there is a good reason to sell.
I was bemoaning the sad (and expensive) fact that in places like this, those who think the stock should go up and are buying are cheered and lauded for their great research, and those who sell are considered idiots who were wrong at 30, 50, 90 and 120, and THUS will be wrong again at 150. Even those of us like me who bought well below $70 and were smart until the very moment they sold, at which point they became dumb herd followers. Get it?
Quote:
Unless you have inside information at this point, what 'legitimate news' did you base your judgement that '145 was too high' to buy or sell?
Or, was it just 'FUD,' like it has been for everyone else, including yourself?
The reason I sold, as I've said many times, is that Apple stock has been bid up far beyond its fundamental value by breathless Apple lovers, who see little importance in the present value of future cash flows and see everything in terms of world domination.
Yes Apple is doing great, yes they have great, popular products. But they have 5% of the computer market, 70% of the MP3 player market, and hope someday to have 1% of the cell phone market. Those facts, plus the as yet unaccomplished cell phone goal, do not give you a $150 billion dollar company unless there are a seriously large number of fools out there buying the stock and not questioning why they are doing it.
It's like drafting Kwame Brown 1st in the NBA draft - having great potential in the future is great, but at some point you have to actually play ball, and if we're waiting 5 years for Apple to reach the levels of market penetration they would need to justify TODAY's stock price, then something has to give.
And it will - you can either listen to opposing viewpoints or drink the Kool Aid which says that Apple stock should be at 200 today.
Browsing from web page to web page. Simple stuff. Google, washingtonpost, sites they wanted to use so I showed them how to browse around. I didn't dwell on it, going to 30 pages at a time, because I was configuring it for my client. But downloading email when not on their wifi was very slow, and forget about uploading an email with a few photos they had just taken.
Ah, I thought so.
Two questions:
1) Did you notice how well maps (incl. satellite), directions, weather, stocks (which you claim to know a lot about), and email (w/o photo attachments) worked?
2) What device do you possess -- no, let me rephrase that, do you know of -- that browses real websites (not the 'mobile' crap) and sends photo attachments on email better/faster on EDGE than the iPhone? Oh, please make sure to name the model, when you used it, and where.
No kidding. And either you are buying on legitimate news or selling on "FUD"
I don't own one, but I've used one, and the data speed sucked when I wasn't on wifi. And if I'm going to spend $600 on a phone, it's not going to have that limitation.
And since when is the opinion of a want-to-be customer/opinionmaker unimportant?
And if I'm going to spend >$300 on a phone it's not going to be limited by a crappy keyboard, Junky UI, features I can't find and require either an IT guy or a geek friend to configure/figure out how to use.
I was bemoaning the sad (and expensive) fact that in places like this, those who think the stock should go up and are buying are cheered and lauded for their great research, and those who sell are considered idiots who were wrong at 30, 50, 90 and 120, and THUS will be wrong again at 150.
What's your best guess for tomorrow's range?... assuming the news isn't quite as dismal as at&t suggested?
I don't know if you are a native english speaker.......
I am not, but from the quality of the 'native' language abilities you have displayed so far, I'll stake a claim that I use the language far more carefully, conscientiously, and respectfully than you do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj
The reason I sold, as I've said many times, is that Apple stock has been bid up far beyond its fundamental value by breathless Apple lovers, who see little importance in the present value of future cash flows and see everything in terms of world domination.
Actually, it is nice to see someone use the phrase "the present value of future cash flows." So, let me ask you: What discount rate do you think is appropriate for AAPL? What "g" do you use in your PV calculation? And, while you are at it, would you mind defining "cash flow"?
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj
.... you can either listen to opposing viewpoints or drink the Kool Aid which says that Apple stock should be at 200 today.
I dislike Kool Aid. And, while on the topic, I can quite specifically tell you why $200 is an overvaluation of AAPL -- offline -- if you'd like to know. But it would, in all likelihood, bore you.
1) Did you notice how well maps (incl. satellite), directions, weather, stocks (which you claim to know a lot about), and email (w/o photo attachments) worked?
I was not happy with the google maps speed. Way too data intensive I imagine. Didn't try the stocks, the weather. Email without attachments worked great, because it disappeared before it sent. So you didn't feel like it was slow.
Quote:
2) What device do you possess -- no, let me rephrase that, do you know of -- that browses real websites (not the 'mobile' crap) and sends photo attachments on email better/faster on EDGE than the iPhone? Oh, please make sure to name the model, when you used it, and where.
You act like I'm attacking your mother here my friend!
It's a phone. I'm not attacking the phone, I'm telling you why I don't have one yet. My phone is very basic, it's on edge, and I don't use the internet on it EVER. TOO SLOW.
The phone is great, it's awesome, but it didn't sell 500,000 units in the first two days and THAT is why the stock is dropping. It didn't sell 300,000 either.
You just don't get it - you think I'm here because I hate Apple, hate the iPhone, etc. I am a big fan, but I'm not stupid enough to forget the difference between a stock and a company.
What's your best guess for tomorrow's range?... assuming the news isn't quite as dismal as at&t suggested?
Tomorrow? As in the day before earnings? Or Thursday?
I don't guess price ranges - it's too dependent on the broader market to be any more than a crap shoot. If the market had been up today, Apple would only have been down 3-5 points, not 10. I think Apple tomorrow will tread water with the market before earnings. After earnings, unless they are truly terrible (IE missing estimates, or just meeting them) I think the stock will go up a few percentage points and then quickly drop back. By morning I think it will be 3-5 % points below where the market is.
So there, I put it in writing. I know you're bookmarking it so you can try to thumb your nose. So you now give your thoughts so I can do the same.
Their is no fucking way they will introduce a 3G model this year. If it was technologicly possible they would have done it with this model. There is not some huge jump in battery performance or a better 3G receiver that would make it possible. Not only that, if they came out with a 3G model right now it would seriously piss off alot of people who just droped 600 bucks for their iPhones. Those people who wanted an iPhone bought one and adding 3G is not going to have a huge impact on sales.
I would say they would come out with a lower priced version with just a phone and music player way before they would come out with a new 3G enabled model.
They won't release one until AT&T's backbone is upgraded. T-Mobile itself has to invest several billion to upgrade to 3G.
Actually, it is nice to see someone use the phrase "the present value of future cash flows." So, let me ask you: What discount rate do you think is appropriate for AAPL? What "g" do you use in your PV calculation? And, while you are at it, would you mind defining "cash flow"?
What a pissing contest.
I have an economics degree from an Ivy league university. And this is my last reply to you, with your smarmy superior attitude. You are doing well to illustrate why "the other 95%" find Apple fans so insufferable.
...... but I'm not stupid enough to forget the difference between a stock and a company.
Last post tonight (for me too -- good night!), since it's getting late, and I have a busy day tomorrow (Although, I must admit that I am enjoying this conversation!).
Since you claim to be smart enough to know the difference between 'a stock and a company,' I'll ask you the same questions as I did above: What discount rate do you think is appropriate for AAPL? What "g" do you use in your PV calculation? And, while you are at it, would you mind defining "cash flow"?
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj
You act like I'm attacking your mother here my friend!
Please don't get all creepy on me -- you're now beginning to sound oedipal. Sheesh.
The phone is great, it's awesome, but it didn't sell 500,000 units in the first two days and THAT is why the stock is dropping. It didn't sell 300,000 either.
.
What you don't seem to get is that you, nor I, nor anyone else knows how many were sold in the first two days.
1) This is activations before end of business on Sat. This isn't sales the first two days, its not even the first two days. Its a few hours on Friday and then part of Saturday as people that bought late Sat. didn't likely even all try to activate.
2) The above numbers you throw around were usually quoted for the weekend (through sunday) or into the week.
This report from AT&T adds nothing either negative or positive to the news that's available up till now.
Comments
I know - in fact it was just people buying the excitement and now selling the news. I was just trying to point out that one should be careful not to look through a biased filter. Anyone who thinks that the run to 145 was based on "real" things while the drop today was somehow concocted is totally missing the boat.
The stockbrokers make waves to reap a better harvest for themselves .
The stockbrokers make waves to reap a better harvest for themselves .
It's hilarious because they're selling on more rumor at this point... it's no longer 'sell on the news'. Holy cow, these guys are nervous.
"I so far haven't heard anyone with an iPhone say they wish it had 3G." As in anyone who currently owns and uses the iPhone. I've heard plenty of people who don't own the iPhone make all types of complaints about it.
Yes. Either you have it and you know what you're talking about, or you don't and it's all speculation.
Speaking for myself, I feel like I have walked through some magical door that shut behind me, and I can't go back to phones/PDAs/smartphones/laptops/etc the way they were, anymore.
So how high is too high now, Cameron?
That's easy - 145 was too high. So was 139 when I sold it. Hopefully I'll be able to buy 20% more shares for my money in a few weeks.
Yes. Either you have it and you know what you're talking about, or you don't and it's all speculation.
Speaking for myself, I feel like I have walked through some magical door that shut behind me, and I can't go back to phones/PDAs/smartphones/laptops/etc the way they were, anymore.
No kidding. And either you are buying on legitimate news or selling on "FUD"
I don't own one, but I've used one, and the data speed sucked when I wasn't on wifi. And if I'm going to spend $600 on a phone, it's not going to have that limitation.
And since when is the opinion of a want-to-be customer/opinionmaker unimportant?
No kidding. And either you are buying on legitimate news or selling on "FUD"
I don't own one, but I've used one, and the data speed sucked when I wasn't on wifi. And if I'm going to spend $600 on a phone, it's not going to have that limitation.
And since when is the opinion of a want-to-be customer/opinionmaker unimportant?
What "data" speed? Care to be more specific, considering you've (supposedly) "....used one"?
That's easy - 145 was too high. So was 139 when I sold it. Hopefully I'll be able to buy 20% more shares for my money in a few weeks.
You're the same guy (see above) that refers to the importance of "legitimate news" as opposed to "FUD."
Unless you have inside information at this point, what 'legitimate news' did you base your judgement that '145 was too high' to buy or sell?
Or, was it just 'FUD,' like it has been for everyone else, including yourself?
What "data" speed? Care to be more specific, considering you've (supposedly) "....used one"?
Browsing from web page to web page. Simple stuff. Google, washingtonpost, sites they wanted to use so I showed them how to browse around. I didn't dwell on it, going to 30 pages at a time, because I was configuring it for my client. But downloading email when not on their wifi was very slow, and forget about uploading an email with a few photos they had just taken.
fraklinc...
Have you ever heard of this thing called 'punctuation'?
Don't you know that franklinc's grandfather is James Joyce's long lost bastard son?
You're the same guy (see above) that refers to the importance of "legitimate news" as opposed to "FUD."
Ug, man this is painful. I said "No kidding. And either you are buying on legitimate news or selling on "FUD" "
I don't know if you are a native english speaker, but the phrasing I used their implies that someone else is doing the talking there, belittling the very suggestion that there is a good reason to sell.
I was bemoaning the sad (and expensive) fact that in places like this, those who think the stock should go up and are buying are cheered and lauded for their great research, and those who sell are considered idiots who were wrong at 30, 50, 90 and 120, and THUS will be wrong again at 150. Even those of us like me who bought well below $70 and were smart until the very moment they sold, at which point they became dumb herd followers. Get it?
Unless you have inside information at this point, what 'legitimate news' did you base your judgement that '145 was too high' to buy or sell?
Or, was it just 'FUD,' like it has been for everyone else, including yourself?
The reason I sold, as I've said many times, is that Apple stock has been bid up far beyond its fundamental value by breathless Apple lovers, who see little importance in the present value of future cash flows and see everything in terms of world domination.
Yes Apple is doing great, yes they have great, popular products. But they have 5% of the computer market, 70% of the MP3 player market, and hope someday to have 1% of the cell phone market. Those facts, plus the as yet unaccomplished cell phone goal, do not give you a $150 billion dollar company unless there are a seriously large number of fools out there buying the stock and not questioning why they are doing it.
It's like drafting Kwame Brown 1st in the NBA draft - having great potential in the future is great, but at some point you have to actually play ball, and if we're waiting 5 years for Apple to reach the levels of market penetration they would need to justify TODAY's stock price, then something has to give.
And it will - you can either listen to opposing viewpoints or drink the Kool Aid which says that Apple stock should be at 200 today.
Browsing from web page to web page. Simple stuff. Google, washingtonpost, sites they wanted to use so I showed them how to browse around. I didn't dwell on it, going to 30 pages at a time, because I was configuring it for my client. But downloading email when not on their wifi was very slow, and forget about uploading an email with a few photos they had just taken.
Ah, I thought so.
Two questions:
1) Did you notice how well maps (incl. satellite), directions, weather, stocks (which you claim to know a lot about), and email (w/o photo attachments) worked?
2) What device do you possess -- no, let me rephrase that, do you know of -- that browses real websites (not the 'mobile' crap) and sends photo attachments on email better/faster on EDGE than the iPhone? Oh, please make sure to name the model, when you used it, and where.
No kidding. And either you are buying on legitimate news or selling on "FUD"
I don't own one, but I've used one, and the data speed sucked when I wasn't on wifi. And if I'm going to spend $600 on a phone, it's not going to have that limitation.
And since when is the opinion of a want-to-be customer/opinionmaker unimportant?
And if I'm going to spend >$300 on a phone it's not going to be limited by a crappy keyboard, Junky UI, features I can't find and require either an IT guy or a geek friend to configure/figure out how to use.
I was bemoaning the sad (and expensive) fact that in places like this, those who think the stock should go up and are buying are cheered and lauded for their great research, and those who sell are considered idiots who were wrong at 30, 50, 90 and 120, and THUS will be wrong again at 150.
What's your best guess for tomorrow's range?... assuming the news isn't quite as dismal as at&t suggested?
Ug, man this is painful.
For you, not for me. (And, what is 'Ug' [sic]).
I don't know if you are a native english speaker.......
I am not, but from the quality of the 'native' language abilities you have displayed so far, I'll stake a claim that I use the language far more carefully, conscientiously, and respectfully than you do.
The reason I sold, as I've said many times, is that Apple stock has been bid up far beyond its fundamental value by breathless Apple lovers, who see little importance in the present value of future cash flows and see everything in terms of world domination.
Actually, it is nice to see someone use the phrase "the present value of future cash flows." So, let me ask you: What discount rate do you think is appropriate for AAPL? What "g" do you use in your PV calculation? And, while you are at it, would you mind defining "cash flow"?
.... you can either listen to opposing viewpoints or drink the Kool Aid which says that Apple stock should be at 200 today.
I dislike Kool Aid. And, while on the topic, I can quite specifically tell you why $200 is an overvaluation of AAPL -- offline -- if you'd like to know. But it would, in all likelihood, bore you.
1) Did you notice how well maps (incl. satellite), directions, weather, stocks (which you claim to know a lot about), and email (w/o photo attachments) worked?
I was not happy with the google maps speed. Way too data intensive I imagine. Didn't try the stocks, the weather. Email without attachments worked great, because it disappeared before it sent. So you didn't feel like it was slow.
2) What device do you possess -- no, let me rephrase that, do you know of -- that browses real websites (not the 'mobile' crap) and sends photo attachments on email better/faster on EDGE than the iPhone? Oh, please make sure to name the model, when you used it, and where.
You act like I'm attacking your mother here my friend!
It's a phone. I'm not attacking the phone, I'm telling you why I don't have one yet. My phone is very basic, it's on edge, and I don't use the internet on it EVER. TOO SLOW.
The phone is great, it's awesome, but it didn't sell 500,000 units in the first two days and THAT is why the stock is dropping. It didn't sell 300,000 either.
You just don't get it - you think I'm here because I hate Apple, hate the iPhone, etc. I am a big fan, but I'm not stupid enough to forget the difference between a stock and a company.
What's your best guess for tomorrow's range?... assuming the news isn't quite as dismal as at&t suggested?
Tomorrow? As in the day before earnings? Or Thursday?
I don't guess price ranges - it's too dependent on the broader market to be any more than a crap shoot. If the market had been up today, Apple would only have been down 3-5 points, not 10. I think Apple tomorrow will tread water with the market before earnings. After earnings, unless they are truly terrible (IE missing estimates, or just meeting them) I think the stock will go up a few percentage points and then quickly drop back. By morning I think it will be 3-5 % points below where the market is.
So there, I put it in writing. I know you're bookmarking it so you can try to thumb your nose. So you now give your thoughts so I can do the same.
Their is no fucking way they will introduce a 3G model this year. If it was technologicly possible they would have done it with this model. There is not some huge jump in battery performance or a better 3G receiver that would make it possible. Not only that, if they came out with a 3G model right now it would seriously piss off alot of people who just droped 600 bucks for their iPhones. Those people who wanted an iPhone bought one and adding 3G is not going to have a huge impact on sales.
I would say they would come out with a lower priced version with just a phone and music player way before they would come out with a new 3G enabled model.
They won't release one until AT&T's backbone is upgraded. T-Mobile itself has to invest several billion to upgrade to 3G.
Actually, it is nice to see someone use the phrase "the present value of future cash flows." So, let me ask you: What discount rate do you think is appropriate for AAPL? What "g" do you use in your PV calculation? And, while you are at it, would you mind defining "cash flow"?
What a pissing contest.
I have an economics degree from an Ivy league university. And this is my last reply to you, with your smarmy superior attitude. You are doing well to illustrate why "the other 95%" find Apple fans so insufferable.
...... but I'm not stupid enough to forget the difference between a stock and a company.
Last post tonight (for me too -- good night!), since it's getting late, and I have a busy day tomorrow (Although, I must admit that I am enjoying this conversation!).
Since you claim to be smart enough to know the difference between 'a stock and a company,' I'll ask you the same questions as I did above: What discount rate do you think is appropriate for AAPL? What "g" do you use in your PV calculation? And, while you are at it, would you mind defining "cash flow"?
You act like I'm attacking your mother here my friend!
Please don't get all creepy on me -- you're now beginning to sound oedipal. Sheesh.
The phone is great, it's awesome, but it didn't sell 500,000 units in the first two days and THAT is why the stock is dropping. It didn't sell 300,000 either.
.
What you don't seem to get is that you, nor I, nor anyone else knows how many were sold in the first two days.
1) This is activations before end of business on Sat. This isn't sales the first two days, its not even the first two days. Its a few hours on Friday and then part of Saturday as people that bought late Sat. didn't likely even all try to activate.
2) The above numbers you throw around were usually quoted for the weekend (through sunday) or into the week.
This report from AT&T adds nothing either negative or positive to the news that's available up till now.