Briefly: PiperJaffray on Apple, iPhone AppleCare surfaces

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
Researchers at PiperJaffray say that seemingly low AT&T iPhone numbers mean little in the long run for Apple. Meanwhile, iPhone customers finally have the opportunity to extend their warranties.



High analyst expectations for iPhone remain steady



Senior analyst Gene Munster of PiperJaffray was direct on Tuesday when he noted that AT&T's 146,000 iPhone activations were a "disappointment" for many experts, who had pumped up their estimated sales figures for the weekend to 500,000 or even 700,000 units. The letdown was reminiscent of the late 2004 iPod market as predictions were based more on impressions of the device than actual statistics, Munster said.



"Unpublished Street expectations for iPod numbers were 8m for the [December 2004] quarter, but during the keynote, Steve Jobs announced that only 4.6m iPods were sold in the quarter, which was viewed as a significant disappointment." Munster explained. "In our minds, the iPhone launch is reminiscent of [that past] quarter, because expectations for the product ran wild and the reality of how many were actually sold fell short."



The quality of the product was not a factor in the launch, he added. If anything, the iPhone had "largely exceeded" what could be expected and it was a question of when, not if, a steep increase in Apple's shipments would hit. 2007 and 2008 sales were never poised to see explosive growth, according to the analyst.



PiperJaffray continued holding its aggressive target of $205 per share, with Munster firm on his perception of the iPhone as a game-changing device that would see certain success by at least 2009.



The iPhone "has set the bar for the next generation of phones," he said. "Our belief all along has been that there is a surge of demand coming."



Apple offers up iPhone AppleCare package



Making its promised appearance shortly after the June debut of the iPhone, the AppleCare extended warranty has appeared at Apple's online store.



With the exception of a few states where the law prevents otherwise, the $69 service extension adds an extra year of coverage for hardware defects (but not accidents) relating to the handset. Notably, the warranty also applies to the official Apple Bluetooth Headset despite its selling as a separate accessory.



No extensions apply to over-the-phone technical support, which remains free for any iPhone user over the course of the two-year AT&T contract.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 41
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,408member
    Munster can't just admit that he totally overdid his numbers. What a Herman.
  • Reply 2 of 41
    steviet02steviet02 Posts: 594member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    Munster can't just admit that he totally overdid his numbers. What a Herman.



    Spam,



    Can you admit that it's not a product that everyone wants? I mean, $600+ for a multimedia device that requires a specific network, only has 8gb of storage (minus whatever the OS takes), and is missing some very basic features that would be expected of a device like this.



    I'm not saying it can't become like the ipod, but the ipod started with alot of storage (for the times) and high price and worked it's way down. The iPhone is starting high priced with very little storage. Remember this is supposed to replace peoples iPods. And hearng talk of a nano iphone, what the hell does that mean, a phone with 2gb storage, hmm... Doesn't sound enticing to me.
  • Reply 3 of 41
    I am so happy that there are analysts who comment on Apple because ALL of them are on PCs and all of them take out their frustrations on this stock. With the exception of Jim Cramer, every analyst has been wrong about Apple.



    They either downgrade it because they don't believe in it or they upgrade it so high, you'd think they were in bed with Steve Jobs.



    I've only bought the stock when the analysts downgrade it, because their reasons for downgrades never seem to make any sense. Look at the fundamentals - no debt, great earnings per share, growth for years to come. The only reason I can think the analysts miss every time is because they have a personal problem with Steve Jobs or something.



    Especially the "fast money" guys - whew! They've been wrong almost 6 times this year alone! Amazing....



    I am now up $72,000 in one year from an investment of only $30,000 and sold before today because there is absolutely no reason why the stock should have been so high anyway. Realistically, this stock should be $110 before earnings and it should go to $130 after earnings. When it drops to $125, I will be picking up more because it's back to school time.



    I don't see why any analyst worth his MBA could not have figured out that a stock price of $140 and up makes no sense - they would have had to sell 1,000,000 phones in 30 hours.



    THINK ABOUT IT! The stock dropped based on iPhone sales in 30 hours? WHAT A JOKE! 30 HOURS OF DATA! HOW COMPLETELY ABSURD!



    How in the world are these guys employed? They completely discounted the entire rest of the country and got caught up in the hype they so despise. PATHETIC!!!!!



    Stay with Apple. They will always be ahead of the curve. They've done it for years now...
  • Reply 4 of 41
    drjjonesdrjjones Posts: 162member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post


    Spam,



    Can you admit that it's not a product that everyone wants? I mean, $600+ for a multimedia device that requires a specific network, only has 8gb of storage (minus whatever the OS takes), and is missing some very basic features that would be expected of a device like this.



    I'm not saying it can't become like the ipod, but the ipod started with alot of storage (for the times) and high price and worked it's way down. The iPhone is starting high priced with very little storage. Remember this is supposed to replace peoples iPods. And hearng talk of a nano iphone, what the hell does that mean, a phone with 2gb storage, hmm... Doesn't sound enticing to me.



    took a year foe me to buy my daughter an ipod and i just got one for father's day. what's that ? 5 years after it came out ? Won't be but 6 months before i get my iphone ,,,it won't be 5 years .
  • Reply 5 of 41
    steviet02steviet02 Posts: 594member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by drjjones View Post


    took a year foe me to buy my daughter an ipod and i just got one for father's day. what's that ? 5 years after it came out ? Won't be but 6 months before i get my iphone ,,,it won't be 5 years .



    If you had an iPod with storage above the size of the nano's then you would find the storage in the phone inadequate. I'm not saying it's not a product for some people, but it's definitely not a product for the masses. Not yet anyway...
  • Reply 6 of 41
    floribusfloribus Posts: 24member
    Does Anyone Out There Have Any Idea What The Actual % Of Sales That The Online Apple Store Accounts For ?????????
  • Reply 7 of 41
    wallywally Posts: 211member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post


    ...Remember this is supposed to replace peoples iPods....



    Nanos. When Steve gave his famous iPhone intro speech, he specifically mentioned the things people carry around was a Phone/PDA/Internet device and an iPod Nano. The iPhone was supposed to be those things in one. So the iPhone was never competing against actual high-capacity iPods.



    While the price is "high" it has been proven over and over again, that the price is lower than comparable phones/service plans by as much (and sometimes more than) $100. The $600 price tag is probably the factor limiting the sales from being much higher, but they will fall eventually. I think the price is the best it can be for now. There is a lot of expense Apple needs to recoup (for the stock holder's sakes anyway), then when component prices fall - Apple's will too.
  • Reply 8 of 41
    pomopomo Posts: 51member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wally View Post


    Nanos. When Steve gave his famous iPhone intro speech, he specifically mentioned the things people carry around was a Phone/PDA/Internet device and an iPod Nano. The iPhone was supposed to be those things in one. So the iPhone was never competing against actual high-capacity iPods.



    While the price is "high" it has been proven over and over again, that the price is lower than comparable phones/service plans by as much (and sometimes more than) $100.



    I used to be one of those people that would carry a nano and a worthless junkie cell phone. Though its true that I can't carry 80gb, but I can tell you that the iPhone is the best device I could ever have purchased.



    Instead of carrying many devices to listen to music, access the web, and to place a call, now I just carry one. I listen to music and surf the web at the same time...incoming call (whew, woulda' hated to miss that call)....listen to music again.



    (starts watching Sopranos on 3.5 widescreen display)

    SWEET!!!
  • Reply 9 of 41
    eaieai Posts: 417member
    Its an obvious case of the echo-chamber effect - everyone picks random numbers higher and higher than the other analysts. Apple just sit back and watch, because they know that their share price isn't everything - in the end, if they make good products that people want, the share price will follow.



    Anyway, I'm sure Apple will give us a number thats higher than AT&T's tomorrow, it just depends how much higher...
  • Reply 10 of 41
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,225member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by thebigapple View Post


    ......Realistically, this stock should be $110 before earnings and it should go to $130 after earnings. ......I don't see why any analyst worth his MBA ... etc etc



    I realize that you are trying to be pro-Apple here, and please realize that I am not remotely a fan of analysts, but -- I am sorry to say this -- do you realize that your post makes no sense at all?
  • Reply 11 of 41
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,225member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by eAi View Post


    Its an obvious case of the echo-chamber effect - everyone picks random numbers higher and higher than the other analysts. Apple just sit back and watch, because they know that their share price isn't everything - in the end, if they make good products that people want, the share price will follow.



    Anyway, I'm sure Apple will give us a number thats higher than AT&T's tomorrow, it just depends how much higher...



    Great points!
  • Reply 12 of 41
    physguyphysguy Posts: 920member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by eAi View Post


    Its an obvious case of the echo-chamber effect - everyone picks random numbers higher and higher than the other analysts. Apple just sit back and watch, because they know that their share price isn't everything - in the end, if they make good products that people want, the share price will follow.



    Anyway, I'm sure Apple will give us a number thats higher than AT&T's tomorrow, it just depends how much higher...



    Of course they will. The AT&T number is a FRACTION of the phones sold THROUGH THE END OF SATURDAY the end of everyone's fiscal quarter.



    Its a FRACTION because is only activations and not everyone who bought through Saturday activated on Saturday, even ignoring the activation problems. For example only 50% of what I bought was activated. Mine was but the one I bought for my friend, who didn't pick it up from me until Sunday, wasn't.



    A bunch of chicken littles. Wish I had more $ to buy more AAPL as littles scatter.
  • Reply 13 of 41
    irelandireland Posts: 17,751member
    *makes you wonder how many folks who want this device are still on contracts*
  • Reply 14 of 41
    rolorolo Posts: 686member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by floribus View Post


    Does Anyone Out There Have Any Idea What The Actual % Of Sales That The Online Apple Store Accounts For ?????????



    Something like 48%? I think it's somewhere in the 40s.



    I can't believe so many articles and even Munster are still equating activations with iPhone sales. Sales of iPhones are likely 2x to 3x more than activations for a variety of reasons.
  • Reply 15 of 41
    floribusfloribus Posts: 24member
    today FROM BUSINESS 2.0:

    "Switchers. A good percentage of iPhone buyers ? "more than 40 percent," according to AT&T ? were switching from another carrier, or were new cell phone users. Quite a few of them probably ported their phone numbers to their iPhones. The number porting process can take hours, on top of the time it takes to activate the phone."
  • Reply 16 of 41
    drjjonesdrjjones Posts: 162member
    It is now being reported that apple gets from ATT $150 to $200 per iphone and $9 a month per iphone. Divided payments over 24 months. By Aaron Task Street.com 7/23/07 audio show
  • Reply 17 of 41
    wilcowilco Posts: 985member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by floribus View Post


    Does Anyone Out There Have Any Idea What The Actual % Of Sales That The Online Apple Store Accounts For ?????????



    53.2%
  • Reply 18 of 41
    I bought my iPhone Friday night and began the activation process on Saturday. I requested my number from Sprint. For two days I could call out on the iPhone but had to recieve incomming aclls on my Sprint phone. Tuesday ATT sent me an email saying the activation was complete and I began recieving incomming calls on my new iPhone. What was the activation date? Saturday or Tuesday? That date makes a big difference. Bet ATT chose Tuesday and my iPhone was not included in the 140K. I also believe this happened to a lot of customers and explains the low activation number. Anyone out there with the same scenario?
  • Reply 19 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wilco View Post


    53.2%



    how did you come by 53.2%
  • Reply 20 of 41
    106.4 divided by 2.

    Or, just a random number (like analyst's numbers)
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