It appears that Jim is operating under the theory that "He will buy it when its popular" but then assumes everyone else will be of the same mind, allowing himself to fretfully worry that SHOCK! "If we all think like that, NO-ONE will buy it"
- ergo the sky will, fall my bones will perish, and my children will have never existed.
I honestly wouldn't even bother getting up in the morning, breathing could be the death of you, what? whats that? do you hear that ringing in my ears? no? only me then, oh please no it must be cancer of the toenails, and that can mean only one thing!
#1 Studios already allow downloadable 720p content. Isn't that what Apple TV offers?
#2 DVD isn't winning anything. DVD sales are not increasing they are decreasing. Many people have stopped purchasing DVD's knowing that their collections are going to be outdated soon, and it's a waste to keep purchasing DVD titles. I stopped buying DVD's three years ago when I heard that there was a high def format DVD that would replace my collection. I have over 200 DVD's. Others are just buying Blu Ray instead. As of now the dent is just a dent, but that dent is getting bigger weekly.
!. Portability. Say it slow so you understand.
2. DVD sales don't have to increase. They've already got the market saturated,
This is like asking "Can I take a DVD to my friends house or loan it to him even if he doesn't own a DVD player".
Early on, DVD had the same issues vs VHS.
An unproven assertion. How often do you actually do this in comparison with just playing your own DVD? Also, if the price is low enough then you do not actually have to transfer media but which movies were good. If downloads were only a $1-$2 for rental its no big deal.
And yet DVD replaced VHS even though at the beginning it had this very same issue with transferrability. This is poorly reasoned.
First, PCs are standard, or widely available equipment, as are iPods and TiVOs.
Second, its STILL an unproven assertion that portability is a requirement for initial adoption. In fact, by definition, if adoption occurs then it BECOMES standard equipment.
They are not totally against any idea that is a potential revenue stream. Again, transfer to another medium is NOT a requirement and finally, the studios DID more or less accept the idea of MANAGED COPY and actually began some implementation on DVD and iTunes.
HDMI was developed for cost and convienence. HDCP was developed for copy protection and is fully implementable over DVI.
Yes. So what? I was saying that downloads aren't going to replace Blu-Ray in the near term. In 10 years do you think that it will still be impossible?
DVD is the incumbent. It already won a decade ago. It has nowhere to go but down and both Blu-Ray and digitial downloads will impact DVD market share.
From the perspective of March 2008 both Blu-Ray and downloads have bright futures and both are likely to replace DVD over time.
More Cassandra screeching without that actual fore-sight. FUD.
No it didn't. You could loan your DVD to the many that right off the bat had players. As a matter of fact this is the reason that the DIVX DVD scheme supported by Circuit City went belly up so fast. You couldn't easily share what you " purchased ". Also ( following that logic ) are you really trying to say Apple TV will grow as fast as the DVD did?
" DVD is the incumbent. It already won a decade ago. It has nowhere to go but down and both Blu-Ray and digitial downloads will impact DVD market share. "
It has no reason to go down. People like it the way it is. The market is saturated. That's why you see the decrease. You're the one with weak reasoning. Or wishful thinking.
" They are not totally against any idea that is a potential revenue stream. Again, transfer to another medium is NOT a requirement and finally, the studios DID more or less accept the idea of MANAGED COPY and actually began some implementation on DVD and iTunes. "
Don't play dumb. Can you or can't you currently play something legally download on iTunes or Apple TV on someone's big screen without a computer, Apple TV, or the iTunes software?
Also one just can imagine " Hey man I'll bring " I Am Legend " over to your house. Just let me grab my computer ( or ipod / Apple TV ) and we'll see about the proper connections ". And yes I realize that Apple TV easily hooks to a common TV's inputs. It's just the process of having to unhook it and lug it over there.
HDMI was mainly developed as a more fool proof way to counteract piracy over other means like component. Otherwise DVI would have stuck around longer. Look it up.
" The Image Constraint Token (ICT) is a digital flag within the AACS (Advanced Access Content System) that determines how Blu-ray and HD DVD players output high definition video signals through the player's component outputs.
AACS is the digital rights management (DRM) standard which will be used by Blu-ray and HD DVD to protect movies from unauthorized duplication.
If the ICT token is set on a Blu-ray or HD DVD disc, then the player will down-convert the video resolution through analog outputs from 1920 by 1080 pixels to 960 by 540. The purpose of ICT is to prevent pirates from creating high-resolution copies of HD DVD and Blu-ray discs via the unsecured analog outputs.
The video output through HDMI is unaffected by ICT since the HDMI output is copy protected by High-Bandwidth Digital Content Protection (HDCP).
The Image Constraint Token is set by the movie studio when a disc is mastered therefore whether the player down converts the video signal will be determined by the studio on a title by title basis.
If the ICT is set, then your HDTV must have an HDMI input in order to watch high definition from a Blu-ray or HD DVD movie. "
Since many early adopters of HDTV ( 5 or 6 years ago ) had only component outputs people have been talking about this issue on the web for years now. Where have you been?
About the subject of downloads becoming the main way we rent and buy movies :
In a decade's time frame anything could happen. The studios could eventually give up and that's a long time for more fiber optic cable to be laid / or new compression techniques to come to fruition. There are still many places where you can't even have cable or satellite for broadband. However BR's fate will be decided long before then.
It appears that Jim is operating under the theory that "He will buy it when its popular" but then assumes everyone else will be of the same mind, allowing himself to fretfully worry that SHOCK! "If we all think like that, NO-ONE will buy it"
- ergo the sky will, fall my bones will perish, and my children will have never existed.
I honestly wouldn't even bother getting up in the morning, breathing could be the death of you, what? whats that? do you hear that ringing in my ears? no? only me then, oh please no it must be cancer of the toenails, and that can mean only one thing!
ITS TOO LATE!
Once bitten. Twice shy.
I'm just asking questions about your perfect little world. I'm sorry that it upsets you.
Like I've said again and again I hope BR succeeds so I can have a HD home media player in my home that still releases content.
No it didn't. You could loan your DVD to the many that right off the bat had players. As a matter of fact this is the reason that the DIVX DVD scheme supported by Circuit City went belly up so fast. You couldn't easily share what you " purchased ". Also ( following that logic ) are you really trying to say Apple TV will grow as fast as the DVD did?
Care to look at the number of DVD players in the first few years in comparison to households? 5.3M or so in the first 3 years. Really you didn't have wide availability for 6 years (~50M) to share your discs.
" DVD is the incumbent. It already won a decade ago. It has nowhere to go but down and both Blu-Ray and digitial downloads will impact DVD market share. "
It has no reason to go down. People like it the way it is. The market is saturated. That's why you see the decrease. You're the one with weak reasoning. Or wishful thinking.
It has no reason to go down but it's already going down? And then you provide a reason?
3.7% dip in 2007. Player sales are flat due to saturation. Spending on media is dropping too and that's a different indicator.
Lower prices, increased penetration of HDTVs and continued sales of PS3s will all serve to increase BR market penetration. When the price differential is low enough there will be no reason to buy replacement DVD players (because they DO break from time to time) instead of a BR player.
" They are not totally against any idea that is a potential revenue stream. Again, transfer to another medium is NOT a requirement and finally, the studios DID more or less accept the idea of MANAGED COPY and actually began some implementation on DVD and iTunes. "
Don't play dumb. Can you or can't you currently play something legally download on iTunes or Apple TV on someone's big screen without a computer, Apple TV, or the iTunes software?
Can you play a DVD without a DVD player?
And your comment in no way responds to what I wrote anyway. Which is that studios will not hestitate to sell 720p movies via download if they see it as a viable revenue stream.
AND they have accepted, in principle, managed copy.
Stay on topic much?
Quote:
Also one just can imagine " Hey man I'll bring " I Am Legend " over to your house. Just let me grab my computer ( or ipod / Apple TV ) and we'll see about the proper connections ". And yes I realize that Apple TV easily hooks to a common TV's inputs. It's just the process of having to unhook it and lug it over there.
The iPod isn't much more difficult to connect. Two audio and one composite. Quality with current gen is so-so but it isn't hard to imagine the future where even HD is possible.
There are no technical limitations to doing this.
Likewise, as the technology spreads it will be easier to share.
Just like it was for DVD. This holds true for both BR and downloads.
HDMI was mainly developed as a more fool proof way to counteract piracy over other means like component. Otherwise DVI would have stuck around longer. Look it up.
HDMI is a connector spec. AACS and ICT and HDCP are the DRM specs that protect content. AACS/ICT happens before the output to control what can go where. HDCP works over both DVI and HDMI.
HDMI is a cheaper connector that also carries audio and more HDMI connectors can fit on a A/V receiver than DVI. Therefore as a A/V connector it is superior to DVI from that perspective although less secure physically.
DVI is geared more toward monitors anyway and it naturally was going to get phased out over time and in fact HDMI is an evolution of DVI-D.
But both are EQUALLY secure from the perspective of DRM (when HDCP is used). DRM and piracy is NOT why DVI is dying out.
You read but you don't understand do you? HDCP is the gatekeeper to insure an encrypted digital path. Because it is protected there is no need to invoke ICT over either DVI or HDMI.
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Since many early adopters of HDTV ( 5 or 6 years ago ) had only component outputs people have been talking about this issue on the web for years now. Where have you been?
Obviously I understand it far better than you. The actual odds of piracy over component was reasonably low anyway. However, since the studios aren't going to invoke ICT for several years its pretty much a non-issue. By then, odds are most of these early HDTVs will have been replaced.
Those using DVI will be uneffected as long as the TV or monitor implemented HDCP.
Quote:
About the subject of downloads becoming the main way we rent and buy movies :
In a decade's time frame anything could happen. The studios could eventually give up and that's a long time for more fiber optic cable to be laid / or new compression techniques to come to fruition. There are still many places where you can't even have cable or satellite for broadband. However BR's fate will be decided long before then.
We aren't talking BR. We're talking downloads, which will be BR's replacement. BR's mass market window is within 3-4 years and doesn't require any of that anyway.
I'm just asking questions about your perfect little world. I'm sorry that it upsets you.
He's not upset. Just pointing out the fallacy in your argument.
Beside, if you clearly wrong then, what makes you think your predictive track record (of BR's failure) is any better this go around? Odds are your current pessimism is no more grounded in reality as your former optimism.
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Like I've said again and again I hope BR succeeds so I can have a HD home media player in my home that still releases content.
Whether it succeeds or fails you will ultimately have that. In any case, there are no current indicators of failure so why are you worried?
If you think BD has NOTHING to do with dropping DVD sales then you really are deluding yourself.
I'd rather not get embroiled in this whole briar patch, but it should be noted that falling DVD sales are what spurred the Studios to try to get customers to buy all their movies all over again in HD.
Falling DVD sales (as people filled out their collections) was the catalyst for HD, not the other way around.
No, but millions have XBox 360. Others have Tivo that can use Unbox. Apple isn't the only place for rentals.
In any case, you're making it a pre-requisite of adoption when no technology it mass deployed when it first starts out.
Care to look at the number of DVD players in the first few years in comparison to households? 5.3M or so in the first 3 years. Really you didn't have wide availability for 6 years (~50M) to share your discs.
In comparison there are 17M XBox 360s.
It has no reason to go down but it's already going down? And then you provide a reason?
3.7% dip in 2007. Player sales are flat due to saturation. Spending on media is dropping too and that's a different indicator.
All mature products go down as new emerging technology replaces them. Thus they ALL have reasons to go down over time: obsolecense and competition.
Lower prices, increased penetration of HDTVs and continued sales of PS3s will all serve to increase BR market penetration. When the price differential is low enough there will be no reason to buy replacement DVD players (because they DO break from time to time) instead of a BR player.
Can you play a DVD without a DVD player?
And your comment in no way responds to what I wrote anyway. Which is that studios will not hestitate to sell 720p movies via download if they see it as a viable revenue stream.
AND they have accepted, in principle, managed copy.
Stay on topic much?
The iPod isn't much more difficult to connect. Two audio and one composite. Quality with current gen is so-so but it isn't hard to imagine the future where even HD is possible.
There are no technical limitations to doing this.
Likewise, as the technology spreads it will be easier to share.
Just like it was for DVD. This holds true for both BR and downloads.
HDMI is a connector spec. AACS and ICT and HDCP are the DRM specs that protect content. AACS/ICT happens before the output to control what can go where. HDCP works over both DVI and HDMI.
HDMI is a cheaper connector that also carries audio and more HDMI connectors can fit on a A/V receiver than DVI. Therefore as a A/V connector it is superior to DVI from that perspective although less secure physically.
DVI is geared more toward monitors anyway and it naturally was going to get phased out over time and in fact HDMI is an evolution of DVI-D.
But both are EQUALLY secure from the perspective of DRM (when HDCP is used). DRM and piracy is NOT why DVI is dying out.
You read but you don't understand do you? HDCP is the gatekeeper to insure an encrypted digital path. Because it is protected there is no need to invoke ICT over either DVI or HDMI.
Obviously I understand it far better than you. The actual odds of piracy over component was reasonably low anyway. However, since the studios aren't going to invoke ICT for several years its pretty much a non-issue. By then, odds are most of these early HDTVs will have been replaced.
Those using DVI will be uneffected as long as the TV or monitor implemented HDCP.
We aren't talking BR. We're talking downloads, which will be BR's replacement. BR's mass market window is within 3-4 years and doesn't require any of that anyway.
Except that your "objective" reasoning is based on faulty "facts" and conjecture.
And that sentence does not provide advice but is an assessment of your opinion: FUD.
" Care to look at the number of DVD players in the first few years in comparison to households? 5.3M or so in the first 3 years. Really you didn't have wide availability for 6 years (~50M) to share your discs.
" All mature products go down as new emerging technology replaces them. Thus they ALL have reasons to go down over time: obsolecense and competition. "
Oh! and by the way the HD DVD player came out first ( before BR ) so how does that fit into that logic?
" If the ICT is set, then your HDTV must have an HDMI input in order to watch high definition from a Blu-ray or HD DVD movie. "
It used HDMI as an example because it's the one most used for HD. Which by the way is what we're talking about.
You read but not too clearly. And DVI isn't dying out? Because of it's very nature HDMI ( as you've said one cable ) is over taking all other connectors.
And yes HDCP is the watch dog standard for piracy. However HDMI is the accepted standard for the application we're talking about.
" Obviously I understand it far better than you. The actual odds of piracy over component was reasonably low anyway. However, since the studios aren't going to invoke ICT for several years its pretty much a non-issue. By then, odds are most of these early HDTVs will have been replaced. "
Man you're really full of yourself aren't you? It doesn't matter if you think the odds are low. The studios seem to. Otherwise you could get full resolution over component no matter what. But as we all know that isn't the case is it? The were going to invoke it right off the bat! But all the complaints they got from early adopters ( you know the ones they also want to adopt BR ) made them hold off.
" We aren't talking BR. We're talking downloads, which will be BR's replacement. BR's mass market window is within 3-4 years and doesn't require any of that anyway. "
" And your comment in no way responds to what I wrote anyway. Which is that studios will not hestitate to sell 720p movies via download if they see it as a viable revenue stream. "
And you know this how? Right now they show no signs of selling movies that are portable in this format. Subjective opinion once again.
" Lower prices, increased penetration of HDTVs and continued sales of PS3s will all serve to increase BR market penetration. When the price differential is low enough there will be no reason to buy replacement DVD players (because they DO break from time to time) instead of a BR player. "
" The iPod isn't much more difficult to connect. Two audio and one composite. Quality with current gen is so-so but it isn't hard to imagine the future where even HD is possible. "
It's hard to imagine that future if the studios are afraid of piracy.
We could do this tit for tat crap forever ( or until BR succeeds or fails ).
Let's just see what happens. OK? It's just that at this point I refuse to believe that BR is a sure thing. I'm hoping it succeeds. A point you don't seem to get!Downloading won't be a serious contender for sales for at least 10 years.
I look at it like 6%. (Glass Filling) Apple was at 2% 3 years ago. Blu Ray will gain market-share much faster than Apple has. I wouldn't doubt above 10% by the end of the year.
I'd rather not get embroiled in this whole briar patch, but it should be noted that falling DVD sales are what spurred the Studios to try to get customers to buy all their movies all over again in HD.
Falling DVD sales (as people filled out their collections) was the catalyst for HD, not the other way around.
mmm.. I see what you did there.. nice, but flawed thinking. tell me, when did work start on the BD format again? was it while DVD sales were still on the rise?
It has no current reason to go down because of BR.
Can you learn to quote correctly? Jeez, you quote the whole post and then repeat them in those goofy dashes.
DVD does have current reason to go down because people understand that there is a replacement format that is HD and the studios, CE and retail vendors are pushing BR.
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No I'm saying it has to be able to do this to become mainstream. Also surely you're not comparing this to the installed base of DVD players.
And I'm saying you're wrong because NO* emerging technology has the installed base of the incumbent mainstream format.
Do you even understand the word prerequisite? You're insisting that a format must have mainstream market penetration BEFORE it can become mainstream. That's simply stupid.
And the fact that you CAN compare XBox and Tivo market penetration to DVD at all means that there is a foundation to move forward.
Quote:
" Care to look at the number of DVD players in the first few years in comparison to households? 5.3M or so in the first 3 years. Really you didn't have wide availability for 6 years (~50M) to share your discs.
In comparison there are 17M XBox 360s. "
They are also game consoles. Not just movie machines. Nonapplicable.
They are multifunction devices that can download movies. That actually is one of the FEW ways to have mainstream market penetration before mainstream adoption (hence the * next to NO above). By piggybacking something else.
They ARE applicable since they ARE being used for movie downloads. This is the same idiocy that HD-DVD proponents used against inclusion of the PS3 in the evaluation.
Quote:
" All mature products go down as new emerging technology replaces them. Thus they ALL have reasons to go down over time: obsolecense and competition. "
The Laserdisc vs. The VCR. Hell! Beta vs. VHS!
And yet the VCR was replaced by DVD. All mature products eventually get replaced. We're talking about two potential ones here: BR, the likely near term successor and downloads, likely the BR successor.
That LD did not replace the VCR does not mean that VCR technology would stay dominant forever. And it did not. Beta vs VHS is a competition. One succeeded, the other failed and went down.
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Oh! and by the way the HD DVD player came out first ( before BR ) so how does that fit into that logic?
Simple. SOME HD format is going to replace SD format. Whether it is BR, HD-DVD or HD downloads is immaterial to what I stated.
YOUR assertion was that DVD has NO reason to go down. It does. It's called HD.
HD-DVD vs BR is the same as Beta vs VHS. Competition between two formats made one go away.
Quote:
" If the ICT is set, then your HDTV must have an HDMI input in order to watch high definition from a Blu-ray or HD DVD movie. "
It used HDMI as an example because it's the one most used for HD. Which by the way is what we're talking about.
You read but not too clearly. And DVI isn't dying out? Because of it's very nature HDMI ( as you've said one cable ) is over taking all other connectors.
Given that HDMI is an evolution of DVI-D then it makes sense that DVI is dying out in AV use as it will in computer use in the future.
IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PIRACY. GOT IT? That was YOUR incorrect assertion.
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Man you're really full of yourself aren't you? It doesn't matter if you think the odds are low. The studios seem to. Otherwise you could get full resolution over component no matter what.
The studios obviously agree that it is low BECAUSE ICT IS NOT ENABLED. If the studios considered it a major piracy threat it would not and all the whining by early adoptors would not change their policy.
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" We aren't talking BR. We're talking downloads, which will be BR's replacement. BR's mass market window is within 3-4 years and doesn't require any of that anyway. "
But that's the topic of this thread.
" Stay on topic much "
But not the specific topic of the paragraph. It is a non-sequitur.
Quote:
" And your comment in no way responds to what I wrote anyway. Which is that studios will not hestitate to sell 720p movies via download if they see it as a viable revenue stream. "
And you know this how? Right now they show no signs of selling movies that are portable in this format. Subjective opinion once again.
You made an absolute statement that they were absolutely against it. My point is that as business people interested in profit then no position is absolute if there is profit to be had.
Hard for you to understand?
Quote:
" The iPod isn't much more difficult to connect. Two audio and one composite. Quality with current gen is so-so but it isn't hard to imagine the future where even HD is possible. "
Composite?
How are you going to get HD over that?
Obviously not over composite but some other kind of dock. Like say this one:
Only for 720p content and not 480p. A smaller dock is possible and be more portable. This one is designed for the high end as a stationary unit.
Quote:
It's hard to imagine that future if the studios are afraid of piracy.
720p is not the same level of quality as 1080p. There are different degrees of risk and exposure.
Quote:
We could do this tit for tat crap forever ( or until BR succeeds or fails ).
Let's just see what happens. OK? It's just that at this point I refuse to believe that BR is a sure thing. I'm hoping it succeeds. A point you don't seem to get!Downloading won't be a serious contender for sales for at least 10 years.
No, you keep CLAIMING that you hope it succeeds then you spread FUD about it failing and becoming like LD. If you actually wanted a HD disc media to succeed as you claim you'd go ahead and get into BR during this critical period. The risks of failure are FAR lower than when you bought into HD-DVD.
So, by your actions rather than words you aren't hoping it succeeds. You spread FUD AND you don't support the format. Unless you normally try to torpedo things you hope to happen.
No one has claimed that BR is a "sure thing". What folks have claimed is the it isn't a "sure failure" because the Blu-Ray folks haven't done X, Y or Z in April of 2008.
If BR hasn't doesn x, Y or Z by DECEMBER 2008 then you can claim BR might fail. If this topic is boring you, I'm sure this thread will still be active by then. You keep claiming like this is some great distance in the future rather than 6-7 months.
Can you learn to quote correctly? Jeez, you quote the whole post and then repeat them in those goofy dashes.
DVD does have current reason to go down because people understand that there is a replacement format that is HD and the studios, CE and retail vendors are pushing BR.
And I'm saying you're wrong because NO* emerging technology has the installed base of the incumbent mainstream format.
Do you even understand the word prerequisite? You're insisting that a format must have mainstream market penetration BEFORE it can become mainstream. That's simply stupid.
And the fact that you CAN compare XBox and Tivo market penetration to DVD at all means that there is a foundation to move forward.
They are multifunction devices that can download movies. That actually is one of the FEW ways to have mainstream market penetration before mainstream adoption (hence the * next to NO above). By piggybacking something else.
They ARE applicable since they ARE being used for movie downloads. This is the same idiocy that HD-DVD proponents used against inclusion of the PS3 in the evaluation.
And yet the VCR was replaced by DVD. All mature products eventually get replaced. We're talking about two potential ones here: BR, the likely near term successor and downloads, likely the BR successor.
That LD did not replace the VCR does not mean that VCR technology would stay dominant forever. And it did not. Beta vs VHS is a competition. One succeeded, the other failed and went down.
Simple. SOME HD format is going to replace SD format. Whether it is BR, HD-DVD or HD downloads is immaterial to what I stated.
YOUR assertion was that DVD has NO reason to go down. It does. It's called HD.
HD-DVD vs BR is the same as Beta vs VHS. Competition between two formats made one go away.
Given that HDMI is an evolution of DVI-D then it makes sense that DVI is dying out in AV use as it will in computer use in the future.
IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PIRACY. GOT IT? That was YOUR incorrect assertion.
The studios obviously agree that it is low BECAUSE ICT IS NOT ENABLED. If the studios considered it a major piracy threat it would not and all the whining by early adoptors would not change their policy.
But not the specific topic of the paragraph. It is a non-sequitur.
You made an absolute statement that they were absolutely against it. My point is that as business people interested in profit then no position is absolute if there is profit to be had.
Hard for you to understand?
Obviously not over composite but some other kind of dock. Like say this one:
Only for 720p content and not 480p. A smaller dock is possible and be more portable. This one is designed for the high end as a stationary unit.
720p is not the same level of quality as 1080p. There are different degrees of risk and exposure.
No, you keep CLAIMING that you hope it succeeds then you spread FUD about it failing and becoming like LD. If you actually wanted a HD disc media to succeed as you claim you'd go ahead and get into BR during this critical period. The risks of failure are FAR lower than when you bought into HD-DVD.
So, by your actions rather than words you aren't hoping it succeeds. You spread FUD AND you don't support the format. Unless you normally try to torpedo things you hope to happen.
No one has claimed that BR is a "sure thing". What folks have claimed is the it isn't a "sure failure" because the Blu-Ray folks haven't done X, Y or Z in April of 2008.
If BR hasn't doesn x, Y or Z by DECEMBER 2008 then you can claim BR might fail. If this topic is boring you, I'm sure this thread will still be active by then. You keep claiming like this is some great distance in the future rather than 6-7 months.
" And yet the VCR was replaced by DVD. All mature products eventually get replaced. We're talking about two potential ones here: BR, the likely near term successor and downloads, likely the BR successor. "
However the previous format war had Beta pitted against VHS. Beta was clearly the superior product. It had higher resolution, smaller cassettes, smaller machines, less complex machines, cheaper machines, more reliable machines, and stereo first. The deal breaker that JVC won with was the fact that it's machines could record more hours than Beta.
The irony was that as people got better tvs in a few years they stopped slowing down their recordings because on the new tvs which produced better resolution their tapes all of a sudden looked crappy. Kind of like when my generation had little suitcase record players the records sounded great. However they were getting the crap scratched out of them. So when they got a real stereo they sounded like shit.
So even though with it's Super Betamax ( almost broadcat quality of the time ) Sony had a better machine ( since in the long run most people stopped slowing down their machines so much ) it lost to a marketing blitz that JVC launched to capitalize on the fact that it had a longer record time. All the other factors in Sony's favor didn't matter.
I guess Sony learned a lot from that battle.
There you have it. The lesser machine won out because of marketing. Kind of like the case with two computer platforms I know of.
" The studios obviously agree that it is low BECAUSE ICT IS NOT ENABLED. If the studios considered it a major piracy threat it would not and all the whining by early adoptors would not change their policy. "
But that wasn't the plan in the beginning. They were saying they would turn it on right away. They didn't because a lot of people ( that bought HDTVs early on ) complained about it and they do want to sell their machines ( to those bleeding edge early adopters ). They may still do this if there's an upsurge in piracy.
" If you actually wanted a HD disc media to succeed as you claim you'd go ahead and get into BR during this critical period. "
I have faith that they'll see the light by this Xmas and lower their price to $ 199.00.
So rest easy.
" So, by your actions rather than words you aren't hoping it succeeds. You spread FUD AND you don't support the format. Unless you normally try to torpedo things you hope to happen. "
The last statement has no place in this conversation.
" Do you even understand the word prerequisite? You're insisting that a format must have mainstream market penetration BEFORE it can become mainstream. That's simply stupid. "
No. I'm saying there is a certain criteria that it must meet before it has a snowball's chance in hell of becoming mainstream. At least the same ease of use as the incumbant.
Easy to understand?
" My point is that as business people interested in profit then no position is absolute if there is profit to be had. "
Tell that to Jack Valenti ( yes I know he's dead ) who testified before congress in 1982 about how evil the VCR was and how it would take away all the profit from the movie industry.
From that testimony : "I say to you that the VCR is to the American film producer and the American public as the Boston strangler is to the woman home alone."
If it had been up to him we wouldn't have home video.
As we all know now Home Video made more money for the studios and producers than they could possibly dream of. Not the first time an industry can't see the forest for the trees and try to shoot themselves in the foot.
By the way there's also this :
" Digital Millennium Copyright Act
In 1998 Valenti lobbied for the controversial Digital Millennium Copyright Act, arguing that copyright infringement via the Internet would severely damage the record and movie industries. "
As you can see they don't exactly have a friendly attitude toward new ways of distributing their product. Maybe now that Jack's gone things will change.
Look I'll say it again for your benifit. I hope BluRay succeeds. I'd love to own a machine. I'm simply waiting to see what Sony does. I'm certainly saying it's not a sure thing that'll it will replace the DVD. I'm also certainly not saying it will fail.
And no. The make or break time for BR isn't that far away at all ( like I've said " anvil hot " and all ).
Now do you understand ( a more friendly way of saying " Got it " ) ?
mmm.. I see what you did there.. nice, but flawed thinking. tell me, when did work start on the BD format again? was it while DVD sales were still on the rise?
I think you might find the answer is yes.
I think your thinking is definitely flawed.
Work started on BR while DVD sales were still going well, but the saturation point was already in sight.
This is no different from moving customers from 8-tracks to cassettes, or VHS to DVD.
Blu-Ray was not some brilliant sudden invention. It has been carefully timed to allow industry to maximize sales of the previous format (DVD) and then force customers to re-purchase the same media collection in another format. This is how the CE world works.
Comments
- ergo the sky will, fall my bones will perish, and my children will have never existed.
I honestly wouldn't even bother getting up in the morning, breathing could be the death of you, what? whats that? do you hear that ringing in my ears? no? only me then, oh please no it must be cancer of the toenails, and that can mean only one thing!
ITS TOO LATE!
#1 Studios already allow downloadable 720p content. Isn't that what Apple TV offers?
#2 DVD isn't winning anything. DVD sales are not increasing they are decreasing. Many people have stopped purchasing DVD's knowing that their collections are going to be outdated soon, and it's a waste to keep purchasing DVD titles. I stopped buying DVD's three years ago when I heard that there was a high def format DVD that would replace my collection. I have over 200 DVD's. Others are just buying Blu Ray instead. As of now the dent is just a dent, but that dent is getting bigger weekly.
!. Portability. Say it slow so you understand.
2. DVD sales don't have to increase. They've already got the market saturated,
That's why you see the current decrease.
But hey about BR I hope you're right.
This is like asking "Can I take a DVD to my friends house or loan it to him even if he doesn't own a DVD player".
Early on, DVD had the same issues vs VHS.
An unproven assertion. How often do you actually do this in comparison with just playing your own DVD? Also, if the price is low enough then you do not actually have to transfer media but which movies were good. If downloads were only a $1-$2 for rental its no big deal.
And yet DVD replaced VHS even though at the beginning it had this very same issue with transferrability. This is poorly reasoned.
First, PCs are standard, or widely available equipment, as are iPods and TiVOs.
Second, its STILL an unproven assertion that portability is a requirement for initial adoption. In fact, by definition, if adoption occurs then it BECOMES standard equipment.
They are not totally against any idea that is a potential revenue stream. Again, transfer to another medium is NOT a requirement and finally, the studios DID more or less accept the idea of MANAGED COPY and actually began some implementation on DVD and iTunes.
HDMI was developed for cost and convienence. HDCP was developed for copy protection and is fully implementable over DVI.
Yes. So what? I was saying that downloads aren't going to replace Blu-Ray in the near term. In 10 years do you think that it will still be impossible?
DVD is the incumbent. It already won a decade ago. It has nowhere to go but down and both Blu-Ray and digitial downloads will impact DVD market share.
From the perspective of March 2008 both Blu-Ray and downloads have bright futures and both are likely to replace DVD over time.
More Cassandra screeching without that actual fore-sight. FUD.
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" This is like asking "Can I take a DVD to my friends house or loan it to him even if he doesn't own a DVD player".
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Sigh!
Does everyone have Apple TV. Just a question.
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" And yet DVD replaced VHS even though at the beginning it had this very same issue with transferrability. This is poorly reasoned. "
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No it didn't. You could loan your DVD to the many that right off the bat had players. As a matter of fact this is the reason that the DIVX DVD scheme supported by Circuit City went belly up so fast. You couldn't easily share what you " purchased ". Also ( following that logic ) are you really trying to say Apple TV will grow as fast as the DVD did?
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" DVD is the incumbent. It already won a decade ago. It has nowhere to go but down and both Blu-Ray and digitial downloads will impact DVD market share. "
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It has no reason to go down. People like it the way it is. The market is saturated. That's why you see the decrease. You're the one with weak reasoning. Or wishful thinking.
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" From the perspective of March 2008 both Blu-Ray and downloads have bright futures and both are likely to replace DVD over time. "
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You still haven't told me how.
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" They are not totally against any idea that is a potential revenue stream. Again, transfer to another medium is NOT a requirement and finally, the studios DID more or less accept the idea of MANAGED COPY and actually began some implementation on DVD and iTunes. "
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Don't play dumb. Can you or can't you currently play something legally download on iTunes or Apple TV on someone's big screen without a computer, Apple TV, or the iTunes software?
Also one just can imagine " Hey man I'll bring " I Am Legend " over to your house. Just let me grab my computer ( or ipod / Apple TV ) and we'll see about the proper connections ". And yes I realize that Apple TV easily hooks to a common TV's inputs. It's just the process of having to unhook it and lug it over there.
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" HDMI was developed for cost and convienence. HDCP was developed for copy protection and is fully implementable over DVI. "
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HDMI was mainly developed as a more fool proof way to counteract piracy over other means like component. Otherwise DVI would have stuck around longer. Look it up.
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...3060&Itemid=46
From that page :
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" The Image Constraint Token (ICT) is a digital flag within the AACS (Advanced Access Content System) that determines how Blu-ray and HD DVD players output high definition video signals through the player's component outputs.
AACS is the digital rights management (DRM) standard which will be used by Blu-ray and HD DVD to protect movies from unauthorized duplication.
If the ICT token is set on a Blu-ray or HD DVD disc, then the player will down-convert the video resolution through analog outputs from 1920 by 1080 pixels to 960 by 540. The purpose of ICT is to prevent pirates from creating high-resolution copies of HD DVD and Blu-ray discs via the unsecured analog outputs.
The video output through HDMI is unaffected by ICT since the HDMI output is copy protected by High-Bandwidth Digital Content Protection (HDCP).
The Image Constraint Token is set by the movie studio when a disc is mastered therefore whether the player down converts the video signal will be determined by the studio on a title by title basis.
If the ICT is set, then your HDTV must have an HDMI input in order to watch high definition from a Blu-ray or HD DVD movie. "
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Since many early adopters of HDTV ( 5 or 6 years ago ) had only component outputs people have been talking about this issue on the web for years now. Where have you been?
About the subject of downloads becoming the main way we rent and buy movies :
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" In 10 years do you think that it will still be impossible? "
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In a decade's time frame anything could happen. The studios could eventually give up and that's a long time for more fiber optic cable to be laid / or new compression techniques to come to fruition. There are still many places where you can't even have cable or satellite for broadband. However BR's fate will be decided long before then.
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" More Cassandra screeching without that actual fore-sight. FUD. "
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I suggest you take your own advice and use some objective not subjective reasoning on this and look at how things could go.
It appears that Jim is operating under the theory that "He will buy it when its popular" but then assumes everyone else will be of the same mind, allowing himself to fretfully worry that SHOCK! "If we all think like that, NO-ONE will buy it"
- ergo the sky will, fall my bones will perish, and my children will have never existed.
I honestly wouldn't even bother getting up in the morning, breathing could be the death of you, what? whats that? do you hear that ringing in my ears? no? only me then, oh please no it must be cancer of the toenails, and that can mean only one thing!
ITS TOO LATE!
Once bitten. Twice shy.
I'm just asking questions about your perfect little world. I'm sorry that it upsets you.
Like I've said again and again I hope BR succeeds so I can have a HD home media player in my home that still releases content.
Once bitten. Twice shy.
I'm just asking questions about your perfect little world. I'm sorry that it upsets you.
Like I've said again and again I hope BR succeeds so I can have a HD home media player in my home that still releases content.
jimmac, hopefully the info below will give you an idea on a weekly basis the ground Blu-ray stands to gain vs. DVD...
Nielsen/VideoScan Numbers ending March 23th
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...3008/index.php
WE: BD-88% HDD-12% YTD: BD---% HDD---% SI: BD-67% HDD-33%
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" This is like asking "Can I take a DVD to my friends house or loan it to him even if he doesn't own a DVD player".
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sigh!
Does everyone have Apple TV. Just a question.
No, but millions have XBox 360. Others have Tivo that can use Unbox. Apple isn't the only place for rentals.
In any case, you're making it a pre-requisite of adoption when no technology it mass deployed when it first starts out.
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" And yet DVD replaced VHS even though at the beginning it had this very same issue with transferrability. This is poorly reasoned. "
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No it didn't. You could loan your DVD to the many that right off the bat had players. As a matter of fact this is the reason that the DIVX DVD scheme supported by Circuit City went belly up so fast. You couldn't easily share what you " purchased ". Also ( following that logic ) are you really trying to say Apple TV will grow as fast as the DVD did?
Care to look at the number of DVD players in the first few years in comparison to households? 5.3M or so in the first 3 years. Really you didn't have wide availability for 6 years (~50M) to share your discs.
In comparison there are 17M XBox 360s.
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" DVD is the incumbent. It already won a decade ago. It has nowhere to go but down and both Blu-Ray and digitial downloads will impact DVD market share. "
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It has no reason to go down. People like it the way it is. The market is saturated. That's why you see the decrease. You're the one with weak reasoning. Or wishful thinking.
It has no reason to go down but it's already going down? And then you provide a reason?
3.7% dip in 2007. Player sales are flat due to saturation. Spending on media is dropping too and that's a different indicator.
http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/07...p-3-6-in-2007/
All mature products go down as new emerging technology replaces them. Thus they ALL have reasons to go down over time: obsolecense and competition.
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" From the perspective of March 2008 both Blu-Ray and downloads have bright futures and both are likely to replace DVD over time. "
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You still haven't told me how.
Lower prices, increased penetration of HDTVs and continued sales of PS3s will all serve to increase BR market penetration. When the price differential is low enough there will be no reason to buy replacement DVD players (because they DO break from time to time) instead of a BR player.
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" They are not totally against any idea that is a potential revenue stream. Again, transfer to another medium is NOT a requirement and finally, the studios DID more or less accept the idea of MANAGED COPY and actually began some implementation on DVD and iTunes. "
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Don't play dumb. Can you or can't you currently play something legally download on iTunes or Apple TV on someone's big screen without a computer, Apple TV, or the iTunes software?
Can you play a DVD without a DVD player?
And your comment in no way responds to what I wrote anyway. Which is that studios will not hestitate to sell 720p movies via download if they see it as a viable revenue stream.
AND they have accepted, in principle, managed copy.
Stay on topic much?
Also one just can imagine " Hey man I'll bring " I Am Legend " over to your house. Just let me grab my computer ( or ipod / Apple TV ) and we'll see about the proper connections ". And yes I realize that Apple TV easily hooks to a common TV's inputs. It's just the process of having to unhook it and lug it over there.
The iPod isn't much more difficult to connect. Two audio and one composite. Quality with current gen is so-so but it isn't hard to imagine the future where even HD is possible.
There are no technical limitations to doing this.
Likewise, as the technology spreads it will be easier to share.
Just like it was for DVD. This holds true for both BR and downloads.
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" HDMI was developed for cost and convienence. HDCP was developed for copy protection and is fully implementable over DVI. "
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HDMI was mainly developed as a more fool proof way to counteract piracy over other means like component. Otherwise DVI would have stuck around longer. Look it up.
HDMI is a connector spec. AACS and ICT and HDCP are the DRM specs that protect content. AACS/ICT happens before the output to control what can go where. HDCP works over both DVI and HDMI.
HDMI is a cheaper connector that also carries audio and more HDMI connectors can fit on a A/V receiver than DVI. Therefore as a A/V connector it is superior to DVI from that perspective although less secure physically.
DVI is geared more toward monitors anyway and it naturally was going to get phased out over time and in fact HDMI is an evolution of DVI-D.
But both are EQUALLY secure from the perspective of DRM (when HDCP is used). DRM and piracy is NOT why DVI is dying out.
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...3060&Itemid=46
From that page :
...
You read but you don't understand do you? HDCP is the gatekeeper to insure an encrypted digital path. Because it is protected there is no need to invoke ICT over either DVI or HDMI.
Since many early adopters of HDTV ( 5 or 6 years ago ) had only component outputs people have been talking about this issue on the web for years now. Where have you been?
Obviously I understand it far better than you. The actual odds of piracy over component was reasonably low anyway. However, since the studios aren't going to invoke ICT for several years its pretty much a non-issue. By then, odds are most of these early HDTVs will have been replaced.
Those using DVI will be uneffected as long as the TV or monitor implemented HDCP.
About the subject of downloads becoming the main way we rent and buy movies :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
" In 10 years do you think that it will still be impossible? "
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In a decade's time frame anything could happen. The studios could eventually give up and that's a long time for more fiber optic cable to be laid / or new compression techniques to come to fruition. There are still many places where you can't even have cable or satellite for broadband. However BR's fate will be decided long before then.
We aren't talking BR. We're talking downloads, which will be BR's replacement. BR's mass market window is within 3-4 years and doesn't require any of that anyway.
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" More Cassandra screeching without that actual fore-sight. FUD. "
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I suggest you take your own advice and use some objective not subjective reasoning on this and look at how things could go.
Except that your "objective" reasoning is based on faulty "facts" and conjecture.
And that sentence does not provide advice but is an assessment of your opinion: FUD.
Once bitten. Twice shy.
I'm just asking questions about your perfect little world. I'm sorry that it upsets you.
He's not upset. Just pointing out the fallacy in your argument.
Beside, if you clearly wrong then, what makes you think your predictive track record (of BR's failure) is any better this go around? Odds are your current pessimism is no more grounded in reality as your former optimism.
Like I've said again and again I hope BR succeeds so I can have a HD home media player in my home that still releases content.
Whether it succeeds or fails you will ultimately have that. In any case, there are no current indicators of failure so why are you worried?
If you think BD has NOTHING to do with dropping DVD sales then you really are deluding yourself.
I'd rather not get embroiled in this whole briar patch, but it should be noted that falling DVD sales are what spurred the Studios to try to get customers to buy all their movies all over again in HD.
Falling DVD sales (as people filled out their collections) was the catalyst for HD, not the other way around.
No, but millions have XBox 360. Others have Tivo that can use Unbox. Apple isn't the only place for rentals.
In any case, you're making it a pre-requisite of adoption when no technology it mass deployed when it first starts out.
Care to look at the number of DVD players in the first few years in comparison to households? 5.3M or so in the first 3 years. Really you didn't have wide availability for 6 years (~50M) to share your discs.
In comparison there are 17M XBox 360s.
It has no reason to go down but it's already going down? And then you provide a reason?
3.7% dip in 2007. Player sales are flat due to saturation. Spending on media is dropping too and that's a different indicator.
http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/07...p-3-6-in-2007/
All mature products go down as new emerging technology replaces them. Thus they ALL have reasons to go down over time: obsolecense and competition.
Lower prices, increased penetration of HDTVs and continued sales of PS3s will all serve to increase BR market penetration. When the price differential is low enough there will be no reason to buy replacement DVD players (because they DO break from time to time) instead of a BR player.
Can you play a DVD without a DVD player?
And your comment in no way responds to what I wrote anyway. Which is that studios will not hestitate to sell 720p movies via download if they see it as a viable revenue stream.
AND they have accepted, in principle, managed copy.
Stay on topic much?
The iPod isn't much more difficult to connect. Two audio and one composite. Quality with current gen is so-so but it isn't hard to imagine the future where even HD is possible.
There are no technical limitations to doing this.
Likewise, as the technology spreads it will be easier to share.
Just like it was for DVD. This holds true for both BR and downloads.
HDMI is a connector spec. AACS and ICT and HDCP are the DRM specs that protect content. AACS/ICT happens before the output to control what can go where. HDCP works over both DVI and HDMI.
HDMI is a cheaper connector that also carries audio and more HDMI connectors can fit on a A/V receiver than DVI. Therefore as a A/V connector it is superior to DVI from that perspective although less secure physically.
DVI is geared more toward monitors anyway and it naturally was going to get phased out over time and in fact HDMI is an evolution of DVI-D.
But both are EQUALLY secure from the perspective of DRM (when HDCP is used). DRM and piracy is NOT why DVI is dying out.
You read but you don't understand do you? HDCP is the gatekeeper to insure an encrypted digital path. Because it is protected there is no need to invoke ICT over either DVI or HDMI.
Obviously I understand it far better than you. The actual odds of piracy over component was reasonably low anyway. However, since the studios aren't going to invoke ICT for several years its pretty much a non-issue. By then, odds are most of these early HDTVs will have been replaced.
Those using DVI will be uneffected as long as the TV or monitor implemented HDCP.
We aren't talking BR. We're talking downloads, which will be BR's replacement. BR's mass market window is within 3-4 years and doesn't require any of that anyway.
Except that your "objective" reasoning is based on faulty "facts" and conjecture.
And that sentence does not provide advice but is an assessment of your opinion: FUD.
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" It has no reason to go down but it's already going down? "
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It has no current reason to go down because of BR.
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" No, but millions have XBox 360. Others have Tivo that can use Unbox. Apple isn't the only place for rentals.
In any case, you're making it a pre-requisite of adoption when no technology it mass deployed when it first starts out. "
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No I'm saying it has to be able to do this to become mainstream. Also surely you're not comparing this to the installed base of DVD players.
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" Care to look at the number of DVD players in the first few years in comparison to households? 5.3M or so in the first 3 years. Really you didn't have wide availability for 6 years (~50M) to share your discs.
In comparison there are 17M XBox 360s. "
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They are also game consoles. Not just movie machines. Nonapplicable.
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" All mature products go down as new emerging technology replaces them. Thus they ALL have reasons to go down over time: obsolecense and competition. "
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The Laserdisc vs. The VCR. Hell! Beta vs. VHS!
Oh! and by the way the HD DVD player came out first ( before BR ) so how does that fit into that logic?
" If the ICT is set, then your HDTV must have an HDMI input in order to watch high definition from a Blu-ray or HD DVD movie. "
It used HDMI as an example because it's the one most used for HD. Which by the way is what we're talking about.
You read but not too clearly. And DVI isn't dying out? Because of it's very nature HDMI ( as you've said one cable ) is over taking all other connectors.
And yes HDCP is the watch dog standard for piracy. However HDMI is the accepted standard for the application we're talking about.
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" Obviously I understand it far better than you. The actual odds of piracy over component was reasonably low anyway. However, since the studios aren't going to invoke ICT for several years its pretty much a non-issue. By then, odds are most of these early HDTVs will have been replaced. "
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Man you're really full of yourself aren't you? It doesn't matter if you think the odds are low. The studios seem to. Otherwise you could get full resolution over component no matter what. But as we all know that isn't the case is it? The were going to invoke it right off the bat! But all the complaints they got from early adopters ( you know the ones they also want to adopt BR ) made them hold off.
" We aren't talking BR. We're talking downloads, which will be BR's replacement. BR's mass market window is within 3-4 years and doesn't require any of that anyway. "
But that's the topic of this thread.
" Stay on topic much "
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" And your comment in no way responds to what I wrote anyway. Which is that studios will not hestitate to sell 720p movies via download if they see it as a viable revenue stream. "
And you know this how? Right now they show no signs of selling movies that are portable in this format. Subjective opinion once again.
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" Lower prices, increased penetration of HDTVs and continued sales of PS3s will all serve to increase BR market penetration. When the price differential is low enough there will be no reason to buy replacement DVD players (because they DO break from time to time) instead of a BR player. "
Let's hope! And over not much time.
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" The iPod isn't much more difficult to connect. Two audio and one composite. Quality with current gen is so-so but it isn't hard to imagine the future where even HD is possible. "
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Composite?
How are you going to get HD over that?
It's hard to imagine that future if the studios are afraid of piracy.
We could do this tit for tat crap forever ( or until BR succeeds or fails ).
Let's just see what happens. OK? It's just that at this point I refuse to believe that BR is a sure thing. I'm hoping it succeeds. A point you don't seem to get!Downloading won't be a serious contender for sales for at least 10 years.
jimmac, hopefully the info below will give you an idea on a weekly basis the ground Blu-ray stands to gain vs. DVD...
Nielsen/VideoScan Numbers ending March 23th
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...3008/index.php
WE: BD-88% HDD-12% YTD: BD---% HDD---% SI: BD-67% HDD-33%
94 %
Looks like they have a ways to go.
94 %
Looks like they have a ways to go.
I look at it like 6%. (Glass Filling) Apple was at 2% 3 years ago. Blu Ray will gain market-share much faster than Apple has. I wouldn't doubt above 10% by the end of the year.
Once bitten. Twice shy.
I'm just asking questions about your perfect little world. I'm sorry that it upsets you.
Like I've said again and again I hope BR succeeds so I can have a HD home media player in my home that still releases content.
So by "once bitten twice shy" I assume you agree with my analysis that you "won't buy it till its popular"
So why didn't you apply that same logic to HD-DVD?
I suggest you take your own advice and use some objective not subjective reasoning on this and look at how things could go.
OH wow.. you think things COULD GO WELL!???? OMG!!11!!!!!!!1!!!!!
is that even possible???
I'd rather not get embroiled in this whole briar patch, but it should be noted that falling DVD sales are what spurred the Studios to try to get customers to buy all their movies all over again in HD.
Falling DVD sales (as people filled out their collections) was the catalyst for HD, not the other way around.
mmm.. I see what you did there.. nice, but flawed thinking. tell me, when did work start on the BD format again? was it while DVD sales were still on the rise?
I think you might find the answer is yes.
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" It has no reason to go down but it's already going down? "
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It has no current reason to go down because of BR.
Can you learn to quote correctly? Jeez, you quote the whole post and then repeat them in those goofy dashes.
DVD does have current reason to go down because people understand that there is a replacement format that is HD and the studios, CE and retail vendors are pushing BR.
No I'm saying it has to be able to do this to become mainstream. Also surely you're not comparing this to the installed base of DVD players.
And I'm saying you're wrong because NO* emerging technology has the installed base of the incumbent mainstream format.
Do you even understand the word prerequisite? You're insisting that a format must have mainstream market penetration BEFORE it can become mainstream. That's simply stupid.
And the fact that you CAN compare XBox and Tivo market penetration to DVD at all means that there is a foundation to move forward.
" Care to look at the number of DVD players in the first few years in comparison to households? 5.3M or so in the first 3 years. Really you didn't have wide availability for 6 years (~50M) to share your discs.
In comparison there are 17M XBox 360s. "
They are also game consoles. Not just movie machines. Nonapplicable.
They are multifunction devices that can download movies. That actually is one of the FEW ways to have mainstream market penetration before mainstream adoption (hence the * next to NO above). By piggybacking something else.
They ARE applicable since they ARE being used for movie downloads. This is the same idiocy that HD-DVD proponents used against inclusion of the PS3 in the evaluation.
" All mature products go down as new emerging technology replaces them. Thus they ALL have reasons to go down over time: obsolecense and competition. "
The Laserdisc vs. The VCR. Hell! Beta vs. VHS!
And yet the VCR was replaced by DVD. All mature products eventually get replaced. We're talking about two potential ones here: BR, the likely near term successor and downloads, likely the BR successor.
That LD did not replace the VCR does not mean that VCR technology would stay dominant forever. And it did not. Beta vs VHS is a competition. One succeeded, the other failed and went down.
Oh! and by the way the HD DVD player came out first ( before BR ) so how does that fit into that logic?
Simple. SOME HD format is going to replace SD format. Whether it is BR, HD-DVD or HD downloads is immaterial to what I stated.
YOUR assertion was that DVD has NO reason to go down. It does. It's called HD.
HD-DVD vs BR is the same as Beta vs VHS. Competition between two formats made one go away.
" If the ICT is set, then your HDTV must have an HDMI input in order to watch high definition from a Blu-ray or HD DVD movie. "
It used HDMI as an example because it's the one most used for HD. Which by the way is what we're talking about.
You read but not too clearly. And DVI isn't dying out? Because of it's very nature HDMI ( as you've said one cable ) is over taking all other connectors.
Given that HDMI is an evolution of DVI-D then it makes sense that DVI is dying out in AV use as it will in computer use in the future.
IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PIRACY. GOT IT? That was YOUR incorrect assertion.
Man you're really full of yourself aren't you? It doesn't matter if you think the odds are low. The studios seem to. Otherwise you could get full resolution over component no matter what.
The studios obviously agree that it is low BECAUSE ICT IS NOT ENABLED. If the studios considered it a major piracy threat it would not and all the whining by early adoptors would not change their policy.
" We aren't talking BR. We're talking downloads, which will be BR's replacement. BR's mass market window is within 3-4 years and doesn't require any of that anyway. "
But that's the topic of this thread.
" Stay on topic much "
But not the specific topic of the paragraph. It is a non-sequitur.
" And your comment in no way responds to what I wrote anyway. Which is that studios will not hestitate to sell 720p movies via download if they see it as a viable revenue stream. "
And you know this how? Right now they show no signs of selling movies that are portable in this format. Subjective opinion once again.
You made an absolute statement that they were absolutely against it. My point is that as business people interested in profit then no position is absolute if there is profit to be had.
Hard for you to understand?
" The iPod isn't much more difficult to connect. Two audio and one composite. Quality with current gen is so-so but it isn't hard to imagine the future where even HD is possible. "
Composite?
How are you going to get HD over that?
Obviously not over composite but some other kind of dock. Like say this one:
http://www.engadget.com/2007/09/05/m...080p-via-hdmi/
Only for 720p content and not 480p. A smaller dock is possible and be more portable. This one is designed for the high end as a stationary unit.
It's hard to imagine that future if the studios are afraid of piracy.
720p is not the same level of quality as 1080p. There are different degrees of risk and exposure.
We could do this tit for tat crap forever ( or until BR succeeds or fails ).
Let's just see what happens. OK? It's just that at this point I refuse to believe that BR is a sure thing. I'm hoping it succeeds. A point you don't seem to get!Downloading won't be a serious contender for sales for at least 10 years.
No, you keep CLAIMING that you hope it succeeds then you spread FUD about it failing and becoming like LD. If you actually wanted a HD disc media to succeed as you claim you'd go ahead and get into BR during this critical period. The risks of failure are FAR lower than when you bought into HD-DVD.
So, by your actions rather than words you aren't hoping it succeeds. You spread FUD AND you don't support the format. Unless you normally try to torpedo things you hope to happen.
No one has claimed that BR is a "sure thing". What folks have claimed is the it isn't a "sure failure" because the Blu-Ray folks haven't done X, Y or Z in April of 2008.
If BR hasn't doesn x, Y or Z by DECEMBER 2008 then you can claim BR might fail. If this topic is boring you, I'm sure this thread will still be active by then. You keep claiming like this is some great distance in the future rather than 6-7 months.
94 %
Looks like they have a ways to go.
Actually, it's somewhat surprising its so high given the format war.
But way to go on trying to parlay good news into bad...
Actually, it's somewhat surprising its so high given the format war.
But way to go on trying to parlay good news into bad...
I thought it was pretty good, but I just went back and looked. It is top 20 vs top 20.
Actually, it's somewhat surprising its so high given the format war.
But way to go on trying to parlay good news into bad...
My dad had a saying " I'm not being negative. I'm being realistic ".
Can you learn to quote correctly? Jeez, you quote the whole post and then repeat them in those goofy dashes.
DVD does have current reason to go down because people understand that there is a replacement format that is HD and the studios, CE and retail vendors are pushing BR.
And I'm saying you're wrong because NO* emerging technology has the installed base of the incumbent mainstream format.
Do you even understand the word prerequisite? You're insisting that a format must have mainstream market penetration BEFORE it can become mainstream. That's simply stupid.
And the fact that you CAN compare XBox and Tivo market penetration to DVD at all means that there is a foundation to move forward.
They are multifunction devices that can download movies. That actually is one of the FEW ways to have mainstream market penetration before mainstream adoption (hence the * next to NO above). By piggybacking something else.
They ARE applicable since they ARE being used for movie downloads. This is the same idiocy that HD-DVD proponents used against inclusion of the PS3 in the evaluation.
And yet the VCR was replaced by DVD. All mature products eventually get replaced. We're talking about two potential ones here: BR, the likely near term successor and downloads, likely the BR successor.
That LD did not replace the VCR does not mean that VCR technology would stay dominant forever. And it did not. Beta vs VHS is a competition. One succeeded, the other failed and went down.
Simple. SOME HD format is going to replace SD format. Whether it is BR, HD-DVD or HD downloads is immaterial to what I stated.
YOUR assertion was that DVD has NO reason to go down. It does. It's called HD.
HD-DVD vs BR is the same as Beta vs VHS. Competition between two formats made one go away.
Given that HDMI is an evolution of DVI-D then it makes sense that DVI is dying out in AV use as it will in computer use in the future.
IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PIRACY. GOT IT? That was YOUR incorrect assertion.
The studios obviously agree that it is low BECAUSE ICT IS NOT ENABLED. If the studios considered it a major piracy threat it would not and all the whining by early adoptors would not change their policy.
But not the specific topic of the paragraph. It is a non-sequitur.
You made an absolute statement that they were absolutely against it. My point is that as business people interested in profit then no position is absolute if there is profit to be had.
Hard for you to understand?
Obviously not over composite but some other kind of dock. Like say this one:
http://www.engadget.com/2007/09/05/m...080p-via-hdmi/
Only for 720p content and not 480p. A smaller dock is possible and be more portable. This one is designed for the high end as a stationary unit.
720p is not the same level of quality as 1080p. There are different degrees of risk and exposure.
No, you keep CLAIMING that you hope it succeeds then you spread FUD about it failing and becoming like LD. If you actually wanted a HD disc media to succeed as you claim you'd go ahead and get into BR during this critical period. The risks of failure are FAR lower than when you bought into HD-DVD.
So, by your actions rather than words you aren't hoping it succeeds. You spread FUD AND you don't support the format. Unless you normally try to torpedo things you hope to happen.
No one has claimed that BR is a "sure thing". What folks have claimed is the it isn't a "sure failure" because the Blu-Ray folks haven't done X, Y or Z in April of 2008.
If BR hasn't doesn x, Y or Z by DECEMBER 2008 then you can claim BR might fail. If this topic is boring you, I'm sure this thread will still be active by then. You keep claiming like this is some great distance in the future rather than 6-7 months.
" And yet the VCR was replaced by DVD. All mature products eventually get replaced. We're talking about two potential ones here: BR, the likely near term successor and downloads, likely the BR successor. "
However the previous format war had Beta pitted against VHS. Beta was clearly the superior product. It had higher resolution, smaller cassettes, smaller machines, less complex machines, cheaper machines, more reliable machines, and stereo first. The deal breaker that JVC won with was the fact that it's machines could record more hours than Beta.
The irony was that as people got better tvs in a few years they stopped slowing down their recordings because on the new tvs which produced better resolution their tapes all of a sudden looked crappy. Kind of like when my generation had little suitcase record players the records sounded great. However they were getting the crap scratched out of them. So when they got a real stereo they sounded like shit.
So even though with it's Super Betamax ( almost broadcat quality of the time ) Sony had a better machine ( since in the long run most people stopped slowing down their machines so much ) it lost to a marketing blitz that JVC launched to capitalize on the fact that it had a longer record time. All the other factors in Sony's favor didn't matter.
I guess Sony learned a lot from that battle.
There you have it. The lesser machine won out because of marketing. Kind of like the case with two computer platforms I know of.
" The studios obviously agree that it is low BECAUSE ICT IS NOT ENABLED. If the studios considered it a major piracy threat it would not and all the whining by early adoptors would not change their policy. "
But that wasn't the plan in the beginning. They were saying they would turn it on right away. They didn't because a lot of people ( that bought HDTVs early on ) complained about it and they do want to sell their machines ( to those bleeding edge early adopters ). They may still do this if there's an upsurge in piracy.
" If you actually wanted a HD disc media to succeed as you claim you'd go ahead and get into BR during this critical period. "
I have faith that they'll see the light by this Xmas and lower their price to $ 199.00.
So rest easy.
" So, by your actions rather than words you aren't hoping it succeeds. You spread FUD AND you don't support the format. Unless you normally try to torpedo things you hope to happen. "
The last statement has no place in this conversation.
" Do you even understand the word prerequisite? You're insisting that a format must have mainstream market penetration BEFORE it can become mainstream. That's simply stupid. "
No. I'm saying there is a certain criteria that it must meet before it has a snowball's chance in hell of becoming mainstream. At least the same ease of use as the incumbant.
Easy to understand?
" My point is that as business people interested in profit then no position is absolute if there is profit to be had. "
Tell that to Jack Valenti ( yes I know he's dead ) who testified before congress in 1982 about how evil the VCR was and how it would take away all the profit from the movie industry.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Valenti
From that testimony : "I say to you that the VCR is to the American film producer and the American public as the Boston strangler is to the woman home alone."
If it had been up to him we wouldn't have home video.
As we all know now Home Video made more money for the studios and producers than they could possibly dream of. Not the first time an industry can't see the forest for the trees and try to shoot themselves in the foot.
By the way there's also this :
" Digital Millennium Copyright Act
In 1998 Valenti lobbied for the controversial Digital Millennium Copyright Act, arguing that copyright infringement via the Internet would severely damage the record and movie industries. "
As you can see they don't exactly have a friendly attitude toward new ways of distributing their product. Maybe now that Jack's gone things will change.
Look I'll say it again for your benifit. I hope BluRay succeeds. I'd love to own a machine. I'm simply waiting to see what Sony does. I'm certainly saying it's not a sure thing that'll it will replace the DVD. I'm also certainly not saying it will fail.
And no. The make or break time for BR isn't that far away at all ( like I've said " anvil hot " and all ).
Now do you understand ( a more friendly way of saying " Got it " ) ?
mmm.. I see what you did there.. nice, but flawed thinking. tell me, when did work start on the BD format again? was it while DVD sales were still on the rise?
I think you might find the answer is yes.
I think your thinking is definitely flawed.
Work started on BR while DVD sales were still going well, but the saturation point was already in sight.
This is no different from moving customers from 8-tracks to cassettes, or VHS to DVD.
Blu-Ray was not some brilliant sudden invention. It has been carefully timed to allow industry to maximize sales of the previous format (DVD) and then force customers to re-purchase the same media collection in another format. This is how the CE world works.