The hard part will be getting the studios to ok a transfer of that kind legally. Especially HD content. If you can copy it there's always a chance yopu can pirate it. That's what's holding stuff like that back. Not the technology. In the current climate the studios are so paranoid about this it has the same drawbacks as downloading movies.
They would have to figure out some kind of anti piracy protection and as we all know that stuff always gets broken.
Jeez...didn't you JUST say you were done?
Obviously the guy was thinking in terms of some encrypted content used in some kind of managed copy like environment. If they let HD get downloaded off iTunes its not that much different than letting some machine give you a copy.
The hard part is actually getting the secure players into sufficient homes to make it worth while. Most systems you might piggyback already depend on some kind of network deployment strategy that makes movies by sneakernet too small a niche to bother with.
By the time you manage to get any market penetration even those old ISDN and cable plants will have been updated or replaced by 4G or WiMAX.
But I've been told by several around here that special features like this don't really matter and no one wants it or needs it.
Yeah...so now studios can try to cross-sell you on your PS3. Biiiig improvement.
The probability that a studio will offer me new content when they already have my $$$ approaches zero. At best you can expect cross sells, an offer to join the "Official Fan Club", and possibly "bug fixes" I likely didn't want anyway (removal of content from the disc by locking them out somehow).
Obviously the guy was thinking in terms of some encrypted content used in some kind of managed copy like environment. If they let HD get downloaded off iTunes its not that much different than letting some machine give you a copy.
The hard part is actually getting the secure players into sufficient homes to make it worth while. Most systems you might piggyback already depend on some kind of network deployment strategy that makes movies by sneakernet too small a niche to bother with.
By the time you manage to get any market penetration even those old ISDN and cable plants will have been updated or replaced by 4G or WiMAX.
Done with you.
Didn't read my little profile at the left? I've been around for awhile and wouldn't leave this forum because of you. And you had to get the last word in again didn't you?
Hey I was just down at Best Buy to get " The Mist " and a guy I was talking to down there said the salesman told him BR discs were going up to $ 40.00 average soon. I don't know if that's true or not but that's the wrong direction for mass adoption.
On the plus side Best Buy gets the customer service angle of this war ( if you'll recall I said some peace gestures would be nice since people spent money on this stuff ) so they're giving a $ 50.00 gift certificate to anyone who bought an HD DVD player from them before Feb. 8th of this year!
Source. Personally, I think this guy's a nut. All of the studios are already supporting Blu-Ray, so I don't know how he thinks getting them to support something else would be easier than getting them to support something they already support. And I highly, highly doubt studios would be accepting of retail employees simply copying films to flash drives for customers; that would be like handing the entire film library over to pirates on a silver platter.
Who the hell would want a drawer full of hundreds of flash drives as their movie library anyway? Sounds very undesirable, and would never be as cost-effective to produce as discs anyhow. A 16GB flash drive is still $80, and you can't press millions of them quickly with content pre-loaded like you can discs.
The guy is a nut as much as those who believe blu-ray will become the successor of DVD in the time frame of 2009 holidays. Some people here even has high hopes for 2008 holidays. Up to now, I'm convinced by what HDM can deliver in high quality AV contents for the enthusiasts/hobbyists, but I'm still not convinced that Blu-Ray optical disc format will be the successful optical disc format to deliver HDM's for everyone.
Anyway, the author did bring up flash drives and I do see such product can be as marketable as long as the price is right. You can use a download station like the $1 DVD rental machines in the local supermarket. Just plug in the flash drive and get a copy for a $1 instead of taking the disc out and having the hassle of returning it. I recently bought a 4GB SDHC card for $15 + USB 2.0 sdhc 150X card reader for $3 and it will only get cheaper in the future. Regardless of whether the flash drives can replace the utility of the optical disc technology in the movie industry, the optical discs are so "last generation" and may be a good time to retire the optical technology by this decade. Either way, I'd still think the download services will be the right direction for the future.
Didn't read my little profile at the left? I've been around for awhile and wouldn't leave this forum because of you. And you had to get the last word in again didn't you?
You know, its rather funny that you continue to try to get me to stop posting with your childish "last word" gambit but you continue to NOT stop responding after you've unilaterally declared "done" multiple times. Do I need to provide you the definition of "done"?
I don't care if you post or not buddy, I can make fun of the silly things you say. But if you don't have the self control NOT to post, I'm certainly not going stop responding just because YOU want me to.
Please either develop self control or learn to use the ignore feature or stop declaring "I'm done with you" and then prattle on and on. In other words, please grow the hell up.
The guy is a nut as much as those who believe blu-ray will become the successor of DVD in the time frame of 2009 holidays.
No one has said that. The only thing folks have said is that it is premature to declare the imminent the failure of BR to replace DVD BEFORE the 2009 holidays has occurred.
Quote:
Anyway, the author did bring up flash drives and I do see such product can be as marketable as long as the price is right. You can use a download station like the $1 DVD rental machines in the local supermarket. Just plug in the flash drive and get a copy for a $1 instead of taking the disc out and having the hassle of returning it.
Okay. Now what do you play it on? What provides the secuire erasure method and DRM protection?
Quote:
Either way, I'd still think the download services will be the right direction for the future.
Download IS the right direction for the future. There is disagreement of the timeframe of that future based on the buildout of the internet infrastructure. All formats eventually die and if Blu-Ray does no more than 10 years before being overshadowed it will have been about par...
Hey I was just down at Best Buy to get " The Mist " and a guy I was talking to down there said the salesman told him BR discs were going up to $ 40.00 average soon. I don't know if that's true or not but that's the wrong direction for mass adoption.
Yes, that would be wrong direction unless includes a bunch of box/season sets to drive the average up to that level. It also seems rather unlikely and more FUD from you.
I don't know... this is Best Buy we're talking about. I went in there last week to see if I could get some HDDVDs on clearance. Nope, they're still charging more than full price for them.
For the record, I don't think movie prices will go back up more than maybe $5, but I would definitely not put it past a Best Lie blue-shirt to make something up so you'll spend more than you intended.
The guy is a nut as much as those who believe blu-ray will become the successor of DVD in the time frame of 2009 holidays. Some people here even has high hopes for 2008 holidays. Up to now, I'm convinced by what HDM can deliver in high quality AV contents for the enthusiasts/hobbyists, but I'm still not convinced that Blu-Ray optical disc format will be the successful optical disc format to deliver HDM's for everyone.
Anyway, the author did bring up flash drives and I do see such product can be as marketable as long as the price is right. You can use a download station like the $1 DVD rental machines in the local supermarket. Just plug in the flash drive and get a copy for a $1 instead of taking the disc out and having the hassle of returning it. I recently bought a 4GB SDHC card for $15 + USB 2.0 sdhc 150X card reader for $3 and it will only get cheaper in the future. Regardless of whether the flash drives can replace the utility of the optical disc technology in the movie industry, the optical discs are so "last generation" and may be a good time to retire the optical technology by this decade. Either way, I'd still think the download services will be the right direction for the future.
" Either way, I'd still think the download services will be the right direction for the future. "
How will they get this HD content past the studios for anything other than renting?
" Either way, I'd still think the download services will be the right direction for the future. "
How will they get this HD content past the studios for anything other than renting?
Just a question.
There's current HD content (TV shows) for purchase at 720p. The current download resolutions are lower than 1080p and it isn't unreasonable to assume that studios will at some point to also allow purchase of 720p movie content.
Right now, I'm guessing is that they don't to help promote the next generation of optical format. Why cannibalize a potential Blu-Ray sale with a cheaper 720p sale when they can get a better revenue stream in 720p rental AND 1080p sales?
But it will come soon enough. This year, maybe not. It will require time for the studios to create their own services, decide that distribution is STILL better left to folks like Apple, Microsoft, Sony, Amazon, etc.
Rental costs need to come down too. At this point $5-$6 is too much for a HD rental.
There's current HD content (TV shows) for purchase at 720p. The current download resolutions are lower than 1080p and it isn't unreasonable to assume that studios will at some point to also allow purchase of 720p movie content.
Right now, I'm guessing is that they don't to help promote the next generation of optical format. Why cannibalize a potential Blu-Ray sale with a cheaper 720p sale when they can get a better revenue stream in 720p rental AND 1080p sales?
But it will come soon enough. This year, maybe not. It will require time for the studios to create their own services, decide that distribution is STILL better left to folks like Apple, Microsoft, Sony, Amazon, etc.
Rental costs need to come down too. At this point $5-$6 is too much for a HD rental.
How much does it cost to rent a movie at your local Blockbuster?
How much does it cost to rent a movie at your local Blockbuster?
Dunno...my local Blockbuster closed. RedBox is $1 a night for DVDs at my local Giant. And of course there's NetFlix and Blockbuster Online.
Eh...I suppose the $5-$6 charged currently for HD rentals is fine for now but it just seems high from rental vs ownership ratio. $6 for 720p once vs $24.95 for 1080p unlimited vs $16.99 per month for Netflix...which includes BR.
The guy is a nut as much as those who believe blu-ray will become the successor of DVD in the time frame of 2009 holidays. Some people here even has high hopes for 2008 holidays. Up to now, I'm convinced by what HDM can deliver in high quality AV contents for the enthusiasts/hobbyists, but I'm still not convinced that Blu-Ray optical disc format will be the successful optical disc format to deliver HDM's for everyone.
Anyway, the author did bring up flash drives and I do see such product can be as marketable as long as the price is right. You can use a download station like the $1 DVD rental machines in the local supermarket. Just plug in the flash drive and get a copy for a $1 instead of taking the disc out and having the hassle of returning it. I recently bought a 4GB SDHC card for $15 + USB 2.0 sdhc 150X card reader for $3 and it will only get cheaper in the future. Regardless of whether the flash drives can replace the utility of the optical disc technology in the movie industry, the optical discs are so "last generation" and may be a good time to retire the optical technology by this decade. Either way, I'd still think the download services will be the right direction for the future.
Internet will be fast enough for 1080p HD streaming long before you'd ever get widespread flash-driven vending machines with full support from the studios in to the market. Regardless, the trouble Blu-Ray may have ahead of it has nothing to do with it's shape or size, and flash-based HD movies would have all the same problems:
1. DVD is "good enough" for most people.
2. Anything else would require purchasing a new player/device.
3. You have to have an HDTV over 40" to even see the difference between DVD and HD.
4. The economy sucks, so even if people wanted to pay more for their movies, they can't.
Changing the container that HD movies are delivered on doesn't address any of these issues.
Internet will be fast enough for 1080p HD streaming long before you'd ever get widespread flash-driven vending machines with full support from the studios in to the market. Regardless, the trouble Blu-Ray may have ahead of it has nothing to do with it's shape or size, and flash-based HD movies would have all the same problems:
1. DVD is "good enough" for most people.
2. Anything else would require purchasing a new player/device.
3. You have to have an HDTV over 40" to even see the difference between DVD and HD.
4. The economy sucks, so even if people wanted to pay more for their movies, they can't.
Changing the container that HD movies are delivered on doesn't address any of these issues.
LP was "good enough" for most people back in the day. Times change and most people want to keep up with the times. Yes you will have to buy a new piece of hardware to play it with, and the big deal there is? Ok, so you're an early adopter and you get stung a bit. Whoopty woo.
Guaranteed in a couple of years the average Bluray player will be under $100 (dont know what the current price is in the US, I am busy building a mobile phone network on the russian border) and then everyone will flock to it.
Downloads aren't ever going to take over, as there are large parts of the world who will never get true broadband, and they like movies too. They will play a part for sure, but take over... no.
Flash based movies... who dreamt this one up? Might I suggest he go back to sleep. Or be put to sleep. There is NO WAY that will ever happen.
There's an interesting thread over at AVS where someone asked the question "Can you guarantee that BD will be a success" because he didn't want to buy discs if it was going to to be another failure like laserdisc. The overwhelming response was that no one can guarantee that BD will succeed and that if BD achieved the success of LD, they'd be very happy as LD had a 20 year run and just about every title that appeared on VHS was also on LD.
I guess this brings up the question, what is your definition of success for BD. Does it have to replace DVD? Can it run parallel with DVD much like LD to VHS as long as studios support it by releasing a wide range of media? Or?
There's some really valid points as to why BD will never penetrate the "good-enough" crowd. Personally, I'd be happy if it achieved the level that LD did and lasts the next 10 - 12 years.
LP was "good enough" for most people back in the day. Times change and most people want to keep up with the times. Yes you will have to buy a new piece of hardware to play it with, and the big deal there is? Ok, so you're an early adopter and you get stung a bit. Whoopty woo.
Just to play the devil's advocate, when you upgraded from LP to CD you only had to buy one piece of equipment and besides most peoples' LP collection probably had accumulated a lot of physical wear. The "good-enough" person has the potential of having to buy 3 pieces of equipment, a BD player, a receiver capable of HDMI and a HD TV of at least 32 - 40".
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jules
Guaranteed in a couple of years the average Bluray player will be under $100 (dont know what the current price is in the US, I am busy building a mobile phone network on the russian border) and then everyone will flock to it.
Jules are you originally from New Zealand?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jules
Downloads aren't ever going to take over, as there are large parts of the world who will never get true broadband, and they like movies too. They will play a part for sure, but take over... no.
Agreed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jules
Flash based movies... who dreamt this one up? Might I suggest he go back to sleep. Or be put to sleep. There is NO WAY that will ever happen.
There's an interesting thread over at AVS where someone asked the question "Can you guarantee that BD will be a success" because he didn't want to buy discs if it was going to to be another failure like laserdisc. The overwhelming response was that no one can guarantee that BD will succeed and that if BD achieved the success of LD, they'd be very happy as LD had a 20 year run and just about every title that appeared on VHS was also on LD.
I guess this brings up the question, what is your definition of success for BD. Does it have to replace DVD? Can it run parallel with DVD much like LD to VHS as long as studios support it by releasing a wide range of media? Or?
There's some really valid points as to why BD will never penetrate the "good-enough" crowd. Personally, I'd be happy if it achieved the level that LD did and lasts the next 10 - 12 years.
You are dealing with a very different situation than LD ever faced. LD was only ever going to be a niche product because the medium was huge, fragile and the setup was expensive for that time. Bluray comes on a medium thats been round for 20 years (maybe not the actual physical medium, but the form of it), and Sony has planted a player in every PS3 and basically hitched the company's future to it. That gives them a pretty strong incentive to hammer it. Product life cycles are getting shorter and shorter I think, 10 years is probably all it is good for, but in that time I think it has got to take over.
Maybe you're right, maybe it destined only to be a niche player, but I have the feeling Sony is going to do well out of it one way or the other.
Just to play the devil's advocate, when you upgraded from LP to CD you only had to buy one piece of equipment and besides most peoples' LP collection probably had accumulated a lot of physical wear. The "good-enough" person has the potential of having to buy 3 pieces of equipment, a BD player, a receiver capable of HDMI and a HD TV of at least 32 - 40".
Jules are you originally from New Zealand?
Yes I am originally from New Zealand...
And I only partially upgraded from LP - I have about 2000 of them sitting around still.
Comments
The hard part will be getting the studios to ok a transfer of that kind legally. Especially HD content. If you can copy it there's always a chance yopu can pirate it. That's what's holding stuff like that back. Not the technology. In the current climate the studios are so paranoid about this it has the same drawbacks as downloading movies.
They would have to figure out some kind of anti piracy protection and as we all know that stuff always gets broken.
Obviously the guy was thinking in terms of some encrypted content used in some kind of managed copy like environment. If they let HD get downloaded off iTunes its not that much different than letting some machine give you a copy.
The hard part is actually getting the secure players into sufficient homes to make it worth while. Most systems you might piggyback already depend on some kind of network deployment strategy that makes movies by sneakernet too small a niche to bother with.
By the time you manage to get any market penetration even those old ISDN and cable plants will have been updated or replaced by 4G or WiMAX.
The new PS3 update for 2.20 is now Live and running.
This will introduce Blu-Ray Live with internet downloaded content to the world via the PS3!
But I've been told by several around here that special features like this don't really matter and no one wants it or needs it.
But I've been told by several around here that special features like this don't really matter and no one wants it or needs it.
Yeah...so now studios can try to cross-sell you on your PS3. Biiiig improvement.
The probability that a studio will offer me new content when they already have my $$$ approaches zero. At best you can expect cross sells, an offer to join the "Official Fan Club", and possibly "bug fixes" I likely didn't want anyway (removal of content from the disc by locking them out somehow).
Obviously the guy was thinking in terms of some encrypted content used in some kind of managed copy like environment. If they let HD get downloaded off iTunes its not that much different than letting some machine give you a copy.
The hard part is actually getting the secure players into sufficient homes to make it worth while. Most systems you might piggyback already depend on some kind of network deployment strategy that makes movies by sneakernet too small a niche to bother with.
By the time you manage to get any market penetration even those old ISDN and cable plants will have been updated or replaced by 4G or WiMAX.
Done with you.
Didn't read my little profile at the left? I've been around for awhile and wouldn't leave this forum because of you. And you had to get the last word in again didn't you?
The. War. Is. Over.
what? forgetful now?
Ps Bye then.
The fallout continues or can't you read?
So like are you two a pair of trolls or what?
Hey I was just down at Best Buy to get " The Mist " and a guy I was talking to down there said the salesman told him BR discs were going up to $ 40.00 average soon. I don't know if that's true or not but that's the wrong direction for mass adoption.
On the plus side Best Buy gets the customer service angle of this war ( if you'll recall I said some peace gestures would be nice since people spent money on this stuff ) so they're giving a $ 50.00 gift certificate to anyone who bought an HD DVD player from them before Feb. 8th of this year!
Source. Personally, I think this guy's a nut. All of the studios are already supporting Blu-Ray, so I don't know how he thinks getting them to support something else would be easier than getting them to support something they already support. And I highly, highly doubt studios would be accepting of retail employees simply copying films to flash drives for customers; that would be like handing the entire film library over to pirates on a silver platter.
Who the hell would want a drawer full of hundreds of flash drives as their movie library anyway? Sounds very undesirable, and would never be as cost-effective to produce as discs anyhow. A 16GB flash drive is still $80, and you can't press millions of them quickly with content pre-loaded like you can discs.
The guy is a nut as much as those who believe blu-ray will become the successor of DVD in the time frame of 2009 holidays. Some people here even has high hopes for 2008 holidays. Up to now, I'm convinced by what HDM can deliver in high quality AV contents for the enthusiasts/hobbyists, but I'm still not convinced that Blu-Ray optical disc format will be the successful optical disc format to deliver HDM's for everyone.
Anyway, the author did bring up flash drives and I do see such product can be as marketable as long as the price is right. You can use a download station like the $1 DVD rental machines in the local supermarket. Just plug in the flash drive and get a copy for a $1 instead of taking the disc out and having the hassle of returning it. I recently bought a 4GB SDHC card for $15 + USB 2.0 sdhc 150X card reader for $3 and it will only get cheaper in the future. Regardless of whether the flash drives can replace the utility of the optical disc technology in the movie industry, the optical discs are so "last generation" and may be a good time to retire the optical technology by this decade. Either way, I'd still think the download services will be the right direction for the future.
Done with you.
Didn't read my little profile at the left? I've been around for awhile and wouldn't leave this forum because of you. And you had to get the last word in again didn't you?
You know, its rather funny that you continue to try to get me to stop posting with your childish "last word" gambit but you continue to NOT stop responding after you've unilaterally declared "done" multiple times. Do I need to provide you the definition of "done"?
I don't care if you post or not buddy, I can make fun of the silly things you say. But if you don't have the self control NOT to post, I'm certainly not going stop responding just because YOU want me to.
Please either develop self control or learn to use the ignore feature or stop declaring "I'm done with you" and then prattle on and on. In other words, please grow the hell up.
The guy is a nut as much as those who believe blu-ray will become the successor of DVD in the time frame of 2009 holidays.
No one has said that. The only thing folks have said is that it is premature to declare the imminent the failure of BR to replace DVD BEFORE the 2009 holidays has occurred.
Anyway, the author did bring up flash drives and I do see such product can be as marketable as long as the price is right. You can use a download station like the $1 DVD rental machines in the local supermarket. Just plug in the flash drive and get a copy for a $1 instead of taking the disc out and having the hassle of returning it.
Okay. Now what do you play it on? What provides the secuire erasure method and DRM protection?
Either way, I'd still think the download services will be the right direction for the future.
Download IS the right direction for the future. There is disagreement of the timeframe of that future based on the buildout of the internet infrastructure. All formats eventually die and if Blu-Ray does no more than 10 years before being overshadowed it will have been about par...
Hey I was just down at Best Buy to get " The Mist " and a guy I was talking to down there said the salesman told him BR discs were going up to $ 40.00 average soon. I don't know if that's true or not but that's the wrong direction for mass adoption.
Yes, that would be wrong direction unless includes a bunch of box/season sets to drive the average up to that level. It also seems rather unlikely and more FUD from you.
For the record, I don't think movie prices will go back up more than maybe $5, but I would definitely not put it past a Best Lie blue-shirt to make something up so you'll spend more than you intended.
The guy is a nut as much as those who believe blu-ray will become the successor of DVD in the time frame of 2009 holidays. Some people here even has high hopes for 2008 holidays. Up to now, I'm convinced by what HDM can deliver in high quality AV contents for the enthusiasts/hobbyists, but I'm still not convinced that Blu-Ray optical disc format will be the successful optical disc format to deliver HDM's for everyone.
Anyway, the author did bring up flash drives and I do see such product can be as marketable as long as the price is right. You can use a download station like the $1 DVD rental machines in the local supermarket. Just plug in the flash drive and get a copy for a $1 instead of taking the disc out and having the hassle of returning it. I recently bought a 4GB SDHC card for $15 + USB 2.0 sdhc 150X card reader for $3 and it will only get cheaper in the future. Regardless of whether the flash drives can replace the utility of the optical disc technology in the movie industry, the optical discs are so "last generation" and may be a good time to retire the optical technology by this decade. Either way, I'd still think the download services will be the right direction for the future.
" Either way, I'd still think the download services will be the right direction for the future. "
How will they get this HD content past the studios for anything other than renting?
Just a question.
" Either way, I'd still think the download services will be the right direction for the future. "
How will they get this HD content past the studios for anything other than renting?
Just a question.
There's current HD content (TV shows) for purchase at 720p. The current download resolutions are lower than 1080p and it isn't unreasonable to assume that studios will at some point to also allow purchase of 720p movie content.
Right now, I'm guessing is that they don't to help promote the next generation of optical format. Why cannibalize a potential Blu-Ray sale with a cheaper 720p sale when they can get a better revenue stream in 720p rental AND 1080p sales?
But it will come soon enough. This year, maybe not. It will require time for the studios to create their own services, decide that distribution is STILL better left to folks like Apple, Microsoft, Sony, Amazon, etc.
Rental costs need to come down too. At this point $5-$6 is too much for a HD rental.
There's current HD content (TV shows) for purchase at 720p. The current download resolutions are lower than 1080p and it isn't unreasonable to assume that studios will at some point to also allow purchase of 720p movie content.
Right now, I'm guessing is that they don't to help promote the next generation of optical format. Why cannibalize a potential Blu-Ray sale with a cheaper 720p sale when they can get a better revenue stream in 720p rental AND 1080p sales?
But it will come soon enough. This year, maybe not. It will require time for the studios to create their own services, decide that distribution is STILL better left to folks like Apple, Microsoft, Sony, Amazon, etc.
Rental costs need to come down too. At this point $5-$6 is too much for a HD rental.
How much does it cost to rent a movie at your local Blockbuster?
How much does it cost to rent a movie at your local Blockbuster?
Dunno...my local Blockbuster closed. RedBox is $1 a night for DVDs at my local Giant. And of course there's NetFlix and Blockbuster Online.
Eh...I suppose the $5-$6 charged currently for HD rentals is fine for now but it just seems high from rental vs ownership ratio. $6 for 720p once vs $24.95 for 1080p unlimited vs $16.99 per month for Netflix...which includes BR.
The guy is a nut as much as those who believe blu-ray will become the successor of DVD in the time frame of 2009 holidays. Some people here even has high hopes for 2008 holidays. Up to now, I'm convinced by what HDM can deliver in high quality AV contents for the enthusiasts/hobbyists, but I'm still not convinced that Blu-Ray optical disc format will be the successful optical disc format to deliver HDM's for everyone.
Anyway, the author did bring up flash drives and I do see such product can be as marketable as long as the price is right. You can use a download station like the $1 DVD rental machines in the local supermarket. Just plug in the flash drive and get a copy for a $1 instead of taking the disc out and having the hassle of returning it. I recently bought a 4GB SDHC card for $15 + USB 2.0 sdhc 150X card reader for $3 and it will only get cheaper in the future. Regardless of whether the flash drives can replace the utility of the optical disc technology in the movie industry, the optical discs are so "last generation" and may be a good time to retire the optical technology by this decade. Either way, I'd still think the download services will be the right direction for the future.
Internet will be fast enough for 1080p HD streaming long before you'd ever get widespread flash-driven vending machines with full support from the studios in to the market. Regardless, the trouble Blu-Ray may have ahead of it has nothing to do with it's shape or size, and flash-based HD movies would have all the same problems:
1. DVD is "good enough" for most people.
2. Anything else would require purchasing a new player/device.
3. You have to have an HDTV over 40" to even see the difference between DVD and HD.
4. The economy sucks, so even if people wanted to pay more for their movies, they can't.
Changing the container that HD movies are delivered on doesn't address any of these issues.
Internet will be fast enough for 1080p HD streaming long before you'd ever get widespread flash-driven vending machines with full support from the studios in to the market. Regardless, the trouble Blu-Ray may have ahead of it has nothing to do with it's shape or size, and flash-based HD movies would have all the same problems:
1. DVD is "good enough" for most people.
2. Anything else would require purchasing a new player/device.
3. You have to have an HDTV over 40" to even see the difference between DVD and HD.
4. The economy sucks, so even if people wanted to pay more for their movies, they can't.
Changing the container that HD movies are delivered on doesn't address any of these issues.
LP was "good enough" for most people back in the day. Times change and most people want to keep up with the times. Yes you will have to buy a new piece of hardware to play it with, and the big deal there is? Ok, so you're an early adopter and you get stung a bit. Whoopty woo.
Guaranteed in a couple of years the average Bluray player will be under $100 (dont know what the current price is in the US, I am busy building a mobile phone network on the russian border) and then everyone will flock to it.
Downloads aren't ever going to take over, as there are large parts of the world who will never get true broadband, and they like movies too. They will play a part for sure, but take over... no.
Flash based movies... who dreamt this one up? Might I suggest he go back to sleep. Or be put to sleep. There is NO WAY that will ever happen.
I guess this brings up the question, what is your definition of success for BD. Does it have to replace DVD? Can it run parallel with DVD much like LD to VHS as long as studios support it by releasing a wide range of media? Or?
There's some really valid points as to why BD will never penetrate the "good-enough" crowd. Personally, I'd be happy if it achieved the level that LD did and lasts the next 10 - 12 years.
LP was "good enough" for most people back in the day. Times change and most people want to keep up with the times. Yes you will have to buy a new piece of hardware to play it with, and the big deal there is? Ok, so you're an early adopter and you get stung a bit. Whoopty woo.
Just to play the devil's advocate, when you upgraded from LP to CD you only had to buy one piece of equipment and besides most peoples' LP collection probably had accumulated a lot of physical wear. The "good-enough" person has the potential of having to buy 3 pieces of equipment, a BD player, a receiver capable of HDMI and a HD TV of at least 32 - 40".
Guaranteed in a couple of years the average Bluray player will be under $100 (dont know what the current price is in the US, I am busy building a mobile phone network on the russian border) and then everyone will flock to it.
Jules are you originally from New Zealand?
Downloads aren't ever going to take over, as there are large parts of the world who will never get true broadband, and they like movies too. They will play a part for sure, but take over... no.
Agreed.
Flash based movies... who dreamt this one up? Might I suggest he go back to sleep. Or be put to sleep. There is NO WAY that will ever happen.
Agreed.
There's an interesting thread over at AVS where someone asked the question "Can you guarantee that BD will be a success" because he didn't want to buy discs if it was going to to be another failure like laserdisc. The overwhelming response was that no one can guarantee that BD will succeed and that if BD achieved the success of LD, they'd be very happy as LD had a 20 year run and just about every title that appeared on VHS was also on LD.
I guess this brings up the question, what is your definition of success for BD. Does it have to replace DVD? Can it run parallel with DVD much like LD to VHS as long as studios support it by releasing a wide range of media? Or?
There's some really valid points as to why BD will never penetrate the "good-enough" crowd. Personally, I'd be happy if it achieved the level that LD did and lasts the next 10 - 12 years.
You are dealing with a very different situation than LD ever faced. LD was only ever going to be a niche product because the medium was huge, fragile and the setup was expensive for that time. Bluray comes on a medium thats been round for 20 years (maybe not the actual physical medium, but the form of it), and Sony has planted a player in every PS3 and basically hitched the company's future to it. That gives them a pretty strong incentive to hammer it. Product life cycles are getting shorter and shorter I think, 10 years is probably all it is good for, but in that time I think it has got to take over.
Maybe you're right, maybe it destined only to be a niche player, but I have the feeling Sony is going to do well out of it one way or the other.
Just to play the devil's advocate, when you upgraded from LP to CD you only had to buy one piece of equipment and besides most peoples' LP collection probably had accumulated a lot of physical wear. The "good-enough" person has the potential of having to buy 3 pieces of equipment, a BD player, a receiver capable of HDMI and a HD TV of at least 32 - 40".
Jules are you originally from New Zealand?
Yes I am originally from New Zealand...
And I only partially upgraded from LP - I have about 2000 of them sitting around still.