There is really only one way to see Job's claim - given he said 1% of the market in 2008- it has to be calendar 2008. From Jan 1 to Dec 31. The market share is not estimated, in any market, from June to June but by calendar year, and 18 months is not the timeframe to measure any market.
It doesn't have to mean that at all. remember that he gave the number in 2007, several months ago.
In addition, "in" 2008 can very well mean "by the end" of 2008.
In fact, it does. Without saying June 2008, for example, the entire year is being allowed into the equation, including the very last minute.
Marketshare is very different than a fixed number. Apple can have 1% marketshare, but could have sold 9 million phones during 2008 , as marketshare is not measured by the number of phones sold in total, but rather, the number of phones being sold during some measuring period. Therefore, Apple could have sold 12 million phones in total by then.
Iif Apple's sales accelerate to some point in 2008 where Apple has 1% marketshare, the number of phones sold before, are only indirectly related to that number.
18 months is not the timeframe to measure any market.
Very true. Jobs is very obviously talking about a 12-month timeframe. The only debate is whether he's talking about mid-'07 through mid-'08, or calendar '08.
Quote:
In any case they are on target. Rich though it is the US is merely 5% of the global market.
Not really. The US is 5% of world population, sure. But can your average Joe in Africa, India, or China really afford something like the iPhone? Nope, or at least not without dire sacrifices. Average GDP per person in those countries (and many others) is far below that of rich nations like the US, Western Europe, Japan and Korea. Which is why Apple is launching in the rich nations first.
In terms of the subset of people who can actually afford an iPhone, the US's share of the market is much larger than 5%. Very cheap phones are what sells well to the masses of India, Africa, China, et al, as you'd expect, given incomes.
I believe the total to date is supposed to be about 4.290 million, not including German sales, the figures for which have not yet come in.
Why wouldn't Jobs include Euro sales in the 4 million figure? All of the Euro sales figures may not be announced yet, but Apple surely knows what they are already.
Why wouldn't Jobs include Euro sales in the 4 million figure? All of the Euro sales figures may not be announced yet, but Apple surely knows what they are already.
.
Well, I could be wrong in that, but it was the impression I had gotten. At any rate, it's only about 10% of the total, so it doesn't really change the idea of where it is going.
Well, I could be wrong in that, but it was the impression I had gotten. At any rate, it's only about 10% of the total, so it doesn't really change the idea of where it is going.
Well, the in the earning conference call, they said they sold 2.3 million iPhones in Q4.
Add that on to the 270k they sold during the US launch at the end of Q2, and the 1.1 million they sold in Q3, and you end up with 3.7 million. And yeah, I'm pretty sure they're including Europe, since they broke out most everything else by region.
So where da heck does Steve get '4 million' from? Did he include projected sales for the two weeks between January 1, 2008 and the keynote? Looks like.
In terms of the subset of people who can actually afford an iPhone, the US's share of the market is much larger than 5%. Very cheap phones are what sells well to the masses of India, Africa, China, et al, as you'd expect, given incomes
The number of people who can afford an iphone in China i.e the Chinese middle classes, is about the population of the US. India, the same. In fact U.S. mobile sales have only recently taken off in comparison with other countries. it is hard to get the figures for the U.S. in total - the best I can find is a report from techweb in 2005 saying "U.S. consumers bought 31.6 million mobile phones in the third quarter, ".
Assuming YOY growth of about 15% i think the U.S. probably now sees sales of between 160M to 180M cell phones a year which is about 20% of the world total. The rest is to fight for. About 80% of the total.
So where da heck does Steve get '4 million' from? Did he include projected sales for the two weeks between January 1, 2008 and the keynote? Looks like.
It was probably a rounding up but he has the actual figures. they dont just collate them for the conference calls.
In terms of the subset of people who can actually afford an iPhone, the US's share of the market is much larger than 5%. Very cheap phones are what sells well to the masses of India, Africa, China, et al, as you'd expect, given incomes.
Apple started with the four largest consumer markets, but there are plenty of other countries with strong economies. There are still 44 other countries in Europe. Canada, Australia, Mexico, New Zealand, Brazil, the list goes on.
Quote:
Very true. Jobs is very obviously talking about a 12-month timeframe. The only debate is whether he's talking about mid-'07 through mid-'08, or calendar '08.
He never specified a particular month time frame. Which leaves room for the end of 2008.
Well, the in the earning conference call, they said they sold 2.3 million iPhones in Q4.
Add that on to the 270k they sold during the US launch at the end of Q2, and the 1.1 million they sold in Q3, and you end up with 3.7 million. And yeah, I'm pretty sure they're including Europe, since they broke out most everything else by region.
So where da heck does Steve get '4 million' from? Did he include projected sales for the two weeks between January 1, 2008 and the keynote? Looks like.
Classic Steve.
.
I can't imagine. He doesn't announce figures that will shortly be proven wrong on the short size. Odd.
The number of people who can afford an iphone in China i.e the Chinese middle classes, is about the population of the US. India, the same.
I'd love to see some figures on that, considering that average Chinese GDP per capita is less than 1/5th that of the US, and in India its about 1/10th that of the US. \
The conference call says that 300,000 iPhones have been sold berween January 1 and MW08.
So in other words, exactly as I said. They sold 3.7 million from US launch through the end of Q4, and then added on the Jan 1-to-MWSF numbers to make 4 mi.
Most of which are either small, or poor (Eastern Europe), or both.
I think Italy and Spain are the main prizes remaining, really. Italy however is heavily into 3G, even moreso than the rest of Europe, so a 2.5G iPhone may have especially rough sledding there.
Quote:
Canada, Australia, Mexico, New Zealand
Small, small, poor, really small (unless you count sheep ).
Quote:
Brazil, the list goes on.
Brazil actually has potential.
Quote:
He never specified a particular month time frame. Which leaves room for the end of 2008.
Go argue it with Mel, He seems to believe the timeframe is from the US launch (mid-'07) to mid-'08. If so, Apple is currently behind pace to make its goal, since they sold 3.7 million iPhones in the first six months, which is a 7.4 million-per-year pace.
I'd love to see some figures on that, considering that average Chinese GDP per capita is less than 1/5th that of the US, and in India its about 1/10th that of the US. \
.
there are 1.3 billion of them. the top 300 million ( the population of the US) is in the top 20 percentile. Piss poor peasants bring down the average, so the wages of the top 20 percentile is $20k up. At a guess. Disposable income, like other poor countries, is higher with services being cheaper.
. If so, Apple is currently behind pace to make its goal, since they sold 3.7 million iPhones in the first six months, which is a 7.4 million-per-year pace.
Not that it needed much re-affirming but the conference call participants kept reiterating that the ten million was year 2008.
Most of which are either small, or poor (Eastern Europe), or both.
Most iPhones are going to be sold in the US. But all these other countries no matter how big or small has some number of people who can afford and will want the iPhone. All of these combined will account for 10 million in sales.
Quote:
If so, Apple is currently behind pace to make its goal, since they sold 3.7 million iPhones in the first six months, which is a 7.4 million-per-year pace.
In the conference call Oppenheimer said they sold 300,000 iPhones in Januray up to MW08. That brings it to 4 million.
You cannot really gage how well they will sell this year based on last year. Nothing sells consistently the same from year to year.
there are 1.3 billion of them. the top 300 million ( the population of the US) is in the top 20 percentile. Piss poor peasants bring down the average, so the wages of the top 20 percentile is $20k up. At a guess. Disposable income, like other poor countries, is higher with services being cheaper.
I find it hard to believe that there are 300 million Chinese making $20,000 USD and up. They usually don't pay factory workers there 7 to 10 bucks an hour USD, y'know. There was an article in The Economist not too long ago which stated that Chinese GDP had been miscalculated by a significant amount on the high side, and was more like $6 trillion than the $8 trillion previously thought.
If so, you really can't have 300 million Chinese making that kind of money, especially factoring in the subset of those making more than $20k. The numbers do not add up. \
If I were to guess, I'd put the subset of Chinese who can truly afford the iPhone at around the same size as the number of Japanese who can afford it. Big market, yep, but not as big as the US... not yet, anyways.
Not that it needed much re-affirming but the conference call participants kept reiterating that the ten million was year 2008.
Quote:
I'd have to see some quotes. Mel seems quite convinced otherwise.
Okay, finally caught this in the conference call transcript:
Peter Oppenheimer:
I’ll leave the analysis to you but we’re very happy with iPhone momentum. Our customers are raving about their iPhones and we remain confident in our goal for 10 million for calendar 2008.
Whatever Apple was defining their goal as before, its 10 million iPhones for calendar 2008 now. This gives me a bit more hope.
Sure, they're still well below pace to make that, but if the Asian launch goes well, and if Apple addresses its European issues (price, 3G, MMS) in a timely manner, 10 million in '08 should be doable... IF Apple is aggressive and timely. I'm not completely convinced yet they will be, though.
On the downside, the likelihood of a major US recession is a big dark cloud, as the lion's share of iPhone sales are from the US. Apple can't goof around, the margin for error isn't large at all.
And on another down note, during the earnings conference call, the Apple execs totally dodged giving out any specific Euro sales numbers. Never a good sign. \
Comments
There is really only one way to see Job's claim - given he said 1% of the market in 2008- it has to be calendar 2008. From Jan 1 to Dec 31. The market share is not estimated, in any market, from June to June but by calendar year, and 18 months is not the timeframe to measure any market.
It doesn't have to mean that at all. remember that he gave the number in 2007, several months ago.
In addition, "in" 2008 can very well mean "by the end" of 2008.
In fact, it does. Without saying June 2008, for example, the entire year is being allowed into the equation, including the very last minute.
Marketshare is very different than a fixed number. Apple can have 1% marketshare, but could have sold 9 million phones during 2008 , as marketshare is not measured by the number of phones sold in total, but rather, the number of phones being sold during some measuring period. Therefore, Apple could have sold 12 million phones in total by then.
Iif Apple's sales accelerate to some point in 2008 where Apple has 1% marketshare, the number of phones sold before, are only indirectly related to that number.
18 months is not the timeframe to measure any market.
Very true. Jobs is very obviously talking about a 12-month timeframe. The only debate is whether he's talking about mid-'07 through mid-'08, or calendar '08.
In any case they are on target. Rich though it is the US is merely 5% of the global market.
Not really. The US is 5% of world population, sure. But can your average Joe in Africa, India, or China really afford something like the iPhone? Nope, or at least not without dire sacrifices. Average GDP per person in those countries (and many others) is far below that of rich nations like the US, Western Europe, Japan and Korea. Which is why Apple is launching in the rich nations first.
In terms of the subset of people who can actually afford an iPhone, the US's share of the market is much larger than 5%. Very cheap phones are what sells well to the masses of India, Africa, China, et al, as you'd expect, given incomes.
.
I believe the total to date is supposed to be about 4.290 million, not including German sales, the figures for which have not yet come in.
Why wouldn't Jobs include Euro sales in the 4 million figure? All of the Euro sales figures may not be announced yet, but Apple surely knows what they are already.
.
Why wouldn't Jobs include Euro sales in the 4 million figure? All of the Euro sales figures may not be announced yet, but Apple surely knows what they are already.
.
Well, I could be wrong in that, but it was the impression I had gotten. At any rate, it's only about 10% of the total, so it doesn't really change the idea of where it is going.
Well, I could be wrong in that, but it was the impression I had gotten. At any rate, it's only about 10% of the total, so it doesn't really change the idea of where it is going.
Well, the in the earning conference call, they said they sold 2.3 million iPhones in Q4.
Add that on to the 270k they sold during the US launch at the end of Q2, and the 1.1 million they sold in Q3, and you end up with 3.7 million. And yeah, I'm pretty sure they're including Europe, since they broke out most everything else by region.
So where da heck does Steve get '4 million' from? Did he include projected sales for the two weeks between January 1, 2008 and the keynote? Looks like.
Classic Steve.
.
In terms of the subset of people who can actually afford an iPhone, the US's share of the market is much larger than 5%. Very cheap phones are what sells well to the masses of India, Africa, China, et al, as you'd expect, given incomes
The number of people who can afford an iphone in China i.e the Chinese middle classes, is about the population of the US. India, the same. In fact U.S. mobile sales have only recently taken off in comparison with other countries. it is hard to get the figures for the U.S. in total - the best I can find is a report from techweb in 2005 saying "U.S. consumers bought 31.6 million mobile phones in the third quarter, ".
Assuming YOY growth of about 15% i think the U.S. probably now sees sales of between 160M to 180M cell phones a year which is about 20% of the world total. The rest is to fight for. About 80% of the total.
So where da heck does Steve get '4 million' from? Did he include projected sales for the two weeks between January 1, 2008 and the keynote? Looks like.
It was probably a rounding up but he has the actual figures. they dont just collate them for the conference calls.
In terms of the subset of people who can actually afford an iPhone, the US's share of the market is much larger than 5%. Very cheap phones are what sells well to the masses of India, Africa, China, et al, as you'd expect, given incomes.
Apple started with the four largest consumer markets, but there are plenty of other countries with strong economies. There are still 44 other countries in Europe. Canada, Australia, Mexico, New Zealand, Brazil, the list goes on.
Very true. Jobs is very obviously talking about a 12-month timeframe. The only debate is whether he's talking about mid-'07 through mid-'08, or calendar '08.
He never specified a particular month time frame. Which leaves room for the end of 2008.
Well, the in the earning conference call, they said they sold 2.3 million iPhones in Q4.
Add that on to the 270k they sold during the US launch at the end of Q2, and the 1.1 million they sold in Q3, and you end up with 3.7 million. And yeah, I'm pretty sure they're including Europe, since they broke out most everything else by region.
So where da heck does Steve get '4 million' from? Did he include projected sales for the two weeks between January 1, 2008 and the keynote? Looks like.
Classic Steve.
.
I can't imagine. He doesn't announce figures that will shortly be proven wrong on the short size. Odd.
actually this is very promising.
The number of people who can afford an iphone in China i.e the Chinese middle classes, is about the population of the US. India, the same.
I'd love to see some figures on that, considering that average Chinese GDP per capita is less than 1/5th that of the US, and in India its about 1/10th that of the US.
.
The conference call says that 300,000 iPhones have been sold berween January 1 and MW08.
So in other words, exactly as I said. They sold 3.7 million from US launch through the end of Q4, and then added on the Jan 1-to-MWSF numbers to make 4 mi.
Good to know I can still parse the Stevespeak.
.
There are still 44 other countries in Europe.
Most of which are either small, or poor (Eastern Europe), or both.
I think Italy and Spain are the main prizes remaining, really. Italy however is heavily into 3G, even moreso than the rest of Europe, so a 2.5G iPhone may have especially rough sledding there.
Canada, Australia, Mexico, New Zealand
Small, small, poor, really small (unless you count sheep
Brazil, the list goes on.
Brazil actually has potential.
He never specified a particular month time frame. Which leaves room for the end of 2008.
Go argue it with Mel, He seems to believe the timeframe is from the US launch (mid-'07) to mid-'08. If so, Apple is currently behind pace to make its goal, since they sold 3.7 million iPhones in the first six months, which is a 7.4 million-per-year pace.
.
I'd love to see some figures on that, considering that average Chinese GDP per capita is less than 1/5th that of the US, and in India its about 1/10th that of the US.
.
there are 1.3 billion of them. the top 300 million ( the population of the US) is in the top 20 percentile. Piss poor peasants bring down the average, so the wages of the top 20 percentile is $20k up. At a guess. Disposable income, like other poor countries, is higher with services being cheaper.
. If so, Apple is currently behind pace to make its goal, since they sold 3.7 million iPhones in the first six months, which is a 7.4 million-per-year pace.
Not that it needed much re-affirming but the conference call participants kept reiterating that the ten million was year 2008.
Most of which are either small, or poor (Eastern Europe), or both.
Most iPhones are going to be sold in the US. But all these other countries no matter how big or small has some number of people who can afford and will want the iPhone. All of these combined will account for 10 million in sales.
If so, Apple is currently behind pace to make its goal, since they sold 3.7 million iPhones in the first six months, which is a 7.4 million-per-year pace.
In the conference call Oppenheimer said they sold 300,000 iPhones in Januray up to MW08. That brings it to 4 million.
You cannot really gage how well they will sell this year based on last year. Nothing sells consistently the same from year to year.
there are 1.3 billion of them. the top 300 million ( the population of the US) is in the top 20 percentile. Piss poor peasants bring down the average, so the wages of the top 20 percentile is $20k up. At a guess. Disposable income, like other poor countries, is higher with services being cheaper.
I find it hard to believe that there are 300 million Chinese making $20,000 USD and up. They usually don't pay factory workers there 7 to 10 bucks an hour USD, y'know. There was an article in The Economist not too long ago which stated that Chinese GDP had been miscalculated by a significant amount on the high side, and was more like $6 trillion than the $8 trillion previously thought.
If so, you really can't have 300 million Chinese making that kind of money, especially factoring in the subset of those making more than $20k. The numbers do not add up.
If I were to guess, I'd put the subset of Chinese who can truly afford the iPhone at around the same size as the number of Japanese who can afford it. Big market, yep, but not as big as the US... not yet, anyways.
.
Not that it needed much re-affirming but the conference call participants kept reiterating that the ten million was year 2008.
I'd have to see some quotes. Mel seems quite convinced otherwise.
Okay, finally caught this in the conference call transcript:
Peter Oppenheimer:
I’ll leave the analysis to you but we’re very happy with iPhone momentum. Our customers are raving about their iPhones and we remain confident in our goal for 10 million for calendar 2008.
Whatever Apple was defining their goal as before, its 10 million iPhones for calendar 2008 now. This gives me a bit more hope.
Sure, they're still well below pace to make that, but if the Asian launch goes well, and if Apple addresses its European issues (price, 3G, MMS) in a timely manner, 10 million in '08 should be doable... IF Apple is aggressive and timely. I'm not completely convinced yet they will be, though.
On the downside, the likelihood of a major US recession is a big dark cloud, as the lion's share of iPhone sales are from the US. Apple can't goof around, the margin for error isn't large at all.
And on another down note, during the earnings conference call, the Apple execs totally dodged giving out any specific Euro sales numbers. Never a good sign.
.