Most iPhones are going to be sold in the US. But all these other countries no matter how big or small has some number of people who can afford and will want the iPhone. All of these combined will account for 10 million in sales.
That is your prediction, not mine. But I feel that Apple CAN hit their goal, if they are aggressive and timely in dealing with their pricing and feature set issues.
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In the conference call Oppenheimer said they sold 300,000 iPhones in Januray up to MW08. That brings it to 4 million.
Sure... in 6 1/2 months. Not 6.
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You cannot really gage how well they will sell this year based on last year. Nothing sells consistently the same from year to year.
All I stated is that they're currently selling at a below goal pace, i.e. 7.4 million per year. And so they are. So to meet their goal, they need to UP their pace. That's not opinion, just mathematical fact.
So the question then becomes, how does Apple make that happen? I think you know my answer on that one: aggressiveness in fixing their Euro pricing, and getting a 3G iPhone out sooner rather than later. And fixing some of the other feature shortfalls as well: MMS, GPS, voice-calling, etc.
I'd love to see some figures on that, considering that average Chinese GDP per capita is less than 1/5th that of the US, and in India its about 1/10th that of the US. \
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I did read an article in the NYTimes, last week, I think, that said that the Chinese are rabid for cell phones, and that the market for them there was almost 300 million people, and rising rapidly. They also like the higher grade phones. It's an upscale market.
While the population of over 1.3 billion is mostly too poor to buy phones, the middle class is increasing significantly. While the salaries there don't match the ones in the west, they are high enough so that their purchasing power is comparable when talking about products in this price range, because they prefer cell phones over much more expensive luxuries.
Remember that here in the US, the average family income is about $50,000. That money buys far less here than it would buy there, so using dollars isn't that simple.
Also it means that there are many families who earn over $50,000. The same is true in China. Those numbers are far exceeded by many people.
I did read an article in the NYTimes, last week, I think, that said that the Chinese are rabid for cell phones, and that the market for them there was almost 300 million people, and rising rapidly. They also like the higher grade phones. It's an upscale market.
While the population of over 1.3 billion is mostly too poor to buy phones, the middle class is increasing significantly. While the salaries there don't match the ones in the west, they are high enough so that their purchasing power is comparable when talking about products in this price range, because they prefer cell phones over much more expensive luxuries.
Remember that here in the US, the average family income is about $50,000. That money buys far less here than it would buy there, so using dollars isn't that simple.
Also it means that there are many families who earn over $50,000. The same is true in China. Those numbers are far exceeded by many people.
I think I may have read the same article. And yeah, they may have 300 mil customers there, but there's a reason why Nokia and the other large worldwide phonemakers make it a priority to sell $30 models there. They have to, given the incomes of most cellphone users.
Far as exactly how big the rich class is in China, Mel, its fine to speculate, but until we see some hard figures on exactly how big said 'rich class' is in China (and that's what we're actually talking about... a 'middle class' income in the US would qualify as very wealthy over there, given the GDP-per-head disparities), we're just spitting in the dark. Unless someone has a link? \
I'm thinking we won't know for sure until the Asian launch, when we can compare Japanese vs Korean vs Chinese iPhone sales directly. That is, if they're good enough that Apple feels okay in breaking them out separately. They were very much mum on exact Euro sales figures during the earnings call today.
And yes, Mel, its fine to speculate, but until we see some hard figures on exactly how big the 'rich class' is in China (and that's what we're actually talking about... a 'middle class' income in the US would qualify as very wealthy over there, given the GDP-per-head disparities), we're just spitting in the dark. \
I'm thinking we won't know for sure until the Asian launch, when we can compare Japanese vs Korean vs Chinese iPhone sales directly. That is, if they're good enough that Apple feels okay in breaking them out separately. They were very much mum on exact Euro sales figures during the earnings call today.
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Supposedly, they were hard figures.
But a dollar there, buys much more than a dollar here. And 300 million phone owners doesn't mean that ALL of them will buy expensive phones, but a large portion do. People here, as we can see in the forums, argue about how expensive the iPhone is. But, they also own far more.
The Chinese, don't own nearly as much. The phone is their lifeline. It does everything for many. They are willing to pay much more of their income on one.
It's like people here spending on a hi def widescreen Tv for a price comparison. Think of it that way.
I'm not talking about the 300 million cellphone users in China figure. I'm talking about the size of the rich class in China, and their average income. I don't remember seeing those numbers... do you have them?
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But a dollar there, buys much more than a dollar here.
....The Chinese, don't own nearly as much. The phone is their lifeline. It does everything for many. They are willing to pay much more of their income on one.
While I believe that some Chinese will be willing to spend a higher percentage of their income on an iPhone than most of their American counterparts, I don't think we'll be seeing $99 iPhones for sale in China. I think too much goes into one for Apple to do that.
When Nokia sells $30 cellphones in China, they aren't $700 N95s automagically slashed in price 96% somehow... they're very cheap and lower capability phones.
I'm not talking about the 300 million cellphone users in China figure. I'm talking about the size of the rich class in China, and their average income. I don't remember seeing those numbers... do you have them?
I read something about that. but I don't remember the numbers, except to say that there are more of them than people might think. a lot of people are getting rich in China right now. It's the Wild Wild East.
While I believe that some Chinese will be willing to spend a higher percentage of their income on an iPhone than most of their American counterparts, I don't think we'll be seeing $99 iPhones for sale in China. I think too much goes into one for Apple to do that.
When Nokia sells $30 cellphones in China, they aren't $700 N95s automagically slashed in price 96% somehow... they're very cheap and lower capability phones.
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Well, I'd like to see numbers. Ive read that higher end phone are very popular there, but I don't have numbers to show. Maybe Google has something.
I'm going to bed now, but if we keep this alive tomorrow, maybe I'll have time to look.
Income distribution in capitalist countries ( and China, despite it's government is very capitalist) tends to follow a power relationship - generally 80-20 - the top 80% of the income is held by the top 20%. In China this effect is exacerbated by the huge disparities between rural areas and urban areas in terms of wealth, and income.
So the top 20% can probably afford an iPhone.
In any case I bring this up to point out that the traditional belief that America needs to be the majority of Apple's sales in everything is false. The global market for mobile phones dwarfs the U.S. 80% of phones are sold outside of the U.S. I imagine the market for smart phones will be 80% outside of the U.S. if not more since the networks of other countries are in better shape, and U.S. consumers are late to the party.
Now back to the ten million this year. They have sold 300,000 from Jan 1 to Jan 15th, presumably not inclusive of that last day ( since the keynote was in the morning). That works out to 150K a week, or 7.8 million a year. That alone is probably enough to meet the ten million target since the holiday quarter is going to be much bigger, and the first two weeks of Jan are probably the worsr two weeks for electronic equipment not on sale.
With the addition of new phones, possible price reductions for old phones, the SDK and the potential of a Killer App ( which after all saved the Mac) and the extension into Asia tand the rest of Europe here is little doubt they can make targets, baring a catastrophic recession worldwide. Analysts had no problem with the iPhone.
Oh, on the conference call one analyst asked whether they were seeing an acceleration in iPhone sales in the new year. He probably meant related to year on year but they couldn't answer that as this is the first time the iphone has sold in this quarter. Suffice to say that 150K a week in Jan is an impressive figure. Which is why he asked. were we to extrapolate from iPod sales in Jan we would come up with a figure far too low for the entire year.
Income distribution in capitalist countries ( and China, despite it's government is very capitalist) tends to follow a power relationship - generally 80-20 - the top 80% of the income is held by the top 20%. In China this effect is exacerbated by the huge disparities between rural areas and urban areas in terms of wealth, and income.
So the top 20% can probably afford an iPhone.
I find that a tad over-optimistic. GDP per head in China is just so very low. \
I'd LOVE to see some numbers on exactly how big the rich class is in China, and exactly how much they really earn, but no one seems to be able to come up with those. So we're all stuck guessing.
My particular guess? The rich class in China is about as big as the middle plus rich classes in Japan right now. In other words, in terms of the number of people who can really afford and iPhone, the two countries are roughly equal. That's still a pretty big market.
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In any case I bring this up to point out that the traditional belief that America needs to be the majority of Apple's sales in everything is false. The global market for mobile phones dwarfs the U.S. 80% of phones are sold outside of the U.S. I imagine the market for smart phones will be 80% outside of the U.S. if not more since the networks of other countries are in better shape, and U.S. consumers are late to the party.
The problem largely, is a lack of 3G on the iPhone. Its not been such a big negative in the US, but it has been in Europe; and in Asia, its a bigger deal still than in Europe, as 3G penetration rates in Japan and Korea are the highest in the world.
If Apple addresses this is in a timely manner, Euro iPhone sales should increase substantially. And, of course, a 3G iPhone will do MUCH better in Asia than a 2.5G one, which would likely be laughed at over there. Not that I expect Apple to be foolish enough to attempt to launch without 3G in Asia.
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Now back to the ten million this year. They have sold 300,000 from Jan 1 to Jan 15th, presumably not inclusive of that last day ( since the keynote was in the morning). That works out to 150K a week, or 7.8 million a year. That alone is probably enough to meet the ten million target since the holiday quarter is going to be much bigger, and the first two weeks of Jan are probably the worsr two weeks for electronic equipment not on sale.
What you're forgetting is the fact that the US is staring down the barrel of a big recession in '08. After all, what have stocks been doing over the past couple of days? And the US is likely to be 50% of worldwide iPhone sales.
No, to meet their goal, Apple needs insurance, in the form of doing better in Europe, and doing reasonably well in Asia.
Of course they should get their european pricing right and 3g phones etc. On those points I agree with TBaggins.
Thank you. It's refreshing that someone sees what I'm talking about, without taking it as an attack on Apple. My goal is to make Apple stronger, not weaker... as you'd expect, since I'm a stockholder.
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Most iPhones are going to be sold in the US. But all these other countries no matter how big or small has some number of people who can afford and will want the iPhone. All of these combined will account for 10 million in sales.
That is your prediction, not mine. But I feel that Apple CAN hit their goal, if they are aggressive and timely in dealing with their pricing and feature set issues.
In the conference call Oppenheimer said they sold 300,000 iPhones in Januray up to MW08. That brings it to 4 million.
Sure... in 6 1/2 months. Not 6.
You cannot really gage how well they will sell this year based on last year. Nothing sells consistently the same from year to year.
All I stated is that they're currently selling at a below goal pace, i.e. 7.4 million per year. And so they are. So to meet their goal, they need to UP their pace. That's not opinion, just mathematical fact.
So the question then becomes, how does Apple make that happen? I think you know my answer on that one: aggressiveness in fixing their Euro pricing, and getting a 3G iPhone out sooner rather than later. And fixing some of the other feature shortfalls as well: MMS, GPS, voice-calling, etc.
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I'd love to see some figures on that, considering that average Chinese GDP per capita is less than 1/5th that of the US, and in India its about 1/10th that of the US.
.
I did read an article in the NYTimes, last week, I think, that said that the Chinese are rabid for cell phones, and that the market for them there was almost 300 million people, and rising rapidly. They also like the higher grade phones. It's an upscale market.
While the population of over 1.3 billion is mostly too poor to buy phones, the middle class is increasing significantly. While the salaries there don't match the ones in the west, they are high enough so that their purchasing power is comparable when talking about products in this price range, because they prefer cell phones over much more expensive luxuries.
Remember that here in the US, the average family income is about $50,000. That money buys far less here than it would buy there, so using dollars isn't that simple.
Also it means that there are many families who earn over $50,000. The same is true in China. Those numbers are far exceeded by many people.
I did read an article in the NYTimes, last week, I think, that said that the Chinese are rabid for cell phones, and that the market for them there was almost 300 million people, and rising rapidly. They also like the higher grade phones. It's an upscale market.
While the population of over 1.3 billion is mostly too poor to buy phones, the middle class is increasing significantly. While the salaries there don't match the ones in the west, they are high enough so that their purchasing power is comparable when talking about products in this price range, because they prefer cell phones over much more expensive luxuries.
Remember that here in the US, the average family income is about $50,000. That money buys far less here than it would buy there, so using dollars isn't that simple.
Also it means that there are many families who earn over $50,000. The same is true in China. Those numbers are far exceeded by many people.
I think I may have read the same article.
Far as exactly how big the rich class is in China, Mel, its fine to speculate, but until we see some hard figures on exactly how big said 'rich class' is in China (and that's what we're actually talking about... a 'middle class' income in the US would qualify as very wealthy over there, given the GDP-per-head disparities), we're just spitting in the dark. Unless someone has a link?
I'm thinking we won't know for sure until the Asian launch, when we can compare Japanese vs Korean vs Chinese iPhone sales directly. That is, if they're good enough that Apple feels okay in breaking them out separately. They were very much mum on exact Euro sales figures during the earnings call today.
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I think I may have read the same article.
And yes, Mel, its fine to speculate, but until we see some hard figures on exactly how big the 'rich class' is in China (and that's what we're actually talking about... a 'middle class' income in the US would qualify as very wealthy over there, given the GDP-per-head disparities), we're just spitting in the dark.
I'm thinking we won't know for sure until the Asian launch, when we can compare Japanese vs Korean vs Chinese iPhone sales directly. That is, if they're good enough that Apple feels okay in breaking them out separately. They were very much mum on exact Euro sales figures during the earnings call today.
.
Supposedly, they were hard figures.
But a dollar there, buys much more than a dollar here. And 300 million phone owners doesn't mean that ALL of them will buy expensive phones, but a large portion do. People here, as we can see in the forums, argue about how expensive the iPhone is. But, they also own far more.
The Chinese, don't own nearly as much. The phone is their lifeline. It does everything for many. They are willing to pay much more of their income on one.
It's like people here spending on a hi def widescreen Tv for a price comparison. Think of it that way.
Supposedly, they were hard figures.
I'm not talking about the 300 million cellphone users in China figure. I'm talking about the size of the rich class in China, and their average income. I don't remember seeing those numbers... do you have them?
But a dollar there, buys much more than a dollar here.
....The Chinese, don't own nearly as much. The phone is their lifeline. It does everything for many. They are willing to pay much more of their income on one.
While I believe that some Chinese will be willing to spend a higher percentage of their income on an iPhone than most of their American counterparts, I don't think we'll be seeing $99 iPhones for sale in China. I think too much goes into one for Apple to do that.
When Nokia sells $30 cellphones in China, they aren't $700 N95s automagically slashed in price 96% somehow... they're very cheap and lower capability phones.
.
I'm not talking about the 300 million cellphone users in China figure. I'm talking about the size of the rich class in China, and their average income. I don't remember seeing those numbers... do you have them?
I read something about that. but I don't remember the numbers, except to say that there are more of them than people might think. a lot of people are getting rich in China right now. It's the Wild Wild East.
While I believe that some Chinese will be willing to spend a higher percentage of their income on an iPhone than most of their American counterparts, I don't think we'll be seeing $99 iPhones for sale in China. I think too much goes into one for Apple to do that.
When Nokia sells $30 cellphones in China, they aren't $700 N95s automagically slashed in price 96% somehow... they're very cheap and lower capability phones.
.[/QUOTE]
Well, I'd like to see numbers. Ive read that higher end phone are very popular there, but I don't have numbers to show. Maybe Google has something.
I'm going to bed now, but if we keep this alive tomorrow, maybe I'll have time to look.
http://www.news.com/Cell-phone-use-s...3-5227836.html
So the top 20% can probably afford an iPhone.
In any case I bring this up to point out that the traditional belief that America needs to be the majority of Apple's sales in everything is false. The global market for mobile phones dwarfs the U.S. 80% of phones are sold outside of the U.S. I imagine the market for smart phones will be 80% outside of the U.S. if not more since the networks of other countries are in better shape, and U.S. consumers are late to the party.
Now back to the ten million this year. They have sold 300,000 from Jan 1 to Jan 15th, presumably not inclusive of that last day ( since the keynote was in the morning). That works out to 150K a week, or 7.8 million a year. That alone is probably enough to meet the ten million target since the holiday quarter is going to be much bigger, and the first two weeks of Jan are probably the worsr two weeks for electronic equipment not on sale.
With the addition of new phones, possible price reductions for old phones, the SDK and the potential of a Killer App ( which after all saved the Mac) and the extension into Asia tand the rest of Europe here is little doubt they can make targets, baring a catastrophic recession worldwide. Analysts had no problem with the iPhone.
Income distribution in capitalist countries ( and China, despite it's government is very capitalist) tends to follow a power relationship - generally 80-20 - the top 80% of the income is held by the top 20%. In China this effect is exacerbated by the huge disparities between rural areas and urban areas in terms of wealth, and income.
So the top 20% can probably afford an iPhone.
I find that a tad over-optimistic. GDP per head in China is just so very low.
I'd LOVE to see some numbers on exactly how big the rich class is in China, and exactly how much they really earn, but no one seems to be able to come up with those. So we're all stuck guessing.
My particular guess? The rich class in China is about as big as the middle plus rich classes in Japan right now. In other words, in terms of the number of people who can really afford and iPhone, the two countries are roughly equal. That's still a pretty big market.
In any case I bring this up to point out that the traditional belief that America needs to be the majority of Apple's sales in everything is false. The global market for mobile phones dwarfs the U.S. 80% of phones are sold outside of the U.S. I imagine the market for smart phones will be 80% outside of the U.S. if not more since the networks of other countries are in better shape, and U.S. consumers are late to the party.
The problem largely, is a lack of 3G on the iPhone. Its not been such a big negative in the US, but it has been in Europe; and in Asia, its a bigger deal still than in Europe, as 3G penetration rates in Japan and Korea are the highest in the world.
If Apple addresses this is in a timely manner, Euro iPhone sales should increase substantially. And, of course, a 3G iPhone will do MUCH better in Asia than a 2.5G one, which would likely be laughed at over there. Not that I expect Apple to be foolish enough to attempt to launch without 3G in Asia.
Now back to the ten million this year. They have sold 300,000 from Jan 1 to Jan 15th, presumably not inclusive of that last day ( since the keynote was in the morning). That works out to 150K a week, or 7.8 million a year. That alone is probably enough to meet the ten million target since the holiday quarter is going to be much bigger, and the first two weeks of Jan are probably the worsr two weeks for electronic equipment not on sale.
What you're forgetting is the fact that the US is staring down the barrel of a big recession in '08. After all, what have stocks been doing over the past couple of days? And the US is likely to be 50% of worldwide iPhone sales.
No, to meet their goal, Apple needs insurance, in the form of doing better in Europe, and doing reasonably well in Asia.
.
Of course they should get their european pricing right and 3g phones etc. On those points I agree with TBaggins.
Thank you. It's refreshing that someone sees what I'm talking about, without taking it as an attack on Apple. My goal is to make Apple stronger, not weaker... as you'd expect, since I'm a stockholder.
.