Again...How does Apple make the BILLIONS the analyst predicted by adding DVR capabilities to the ATV? Are they now going to now sell billions of dollars worth of the (currently weak-selling) set-top box, it effectively replacing satellite, cable and telco solutions?
I don't think DVR in itself will do much to help ATV. It may have been different when DVR was rare But today cable companies dominate the DVR market that I'd unlikely to change.
What would help ATV more is to open up to other video download services. Such as Netflix, Hulu, and Joost.
I agree 100%.
This is the reason why Apple never bothered implementing DVR functionality. Cable companies now own this market. The integration and convenience offered by the cable company boxes is hard to compete against.
This is the reason why Apple never bothered implementing DVR functionality. Cable companies now own this market. The integration and convenience offered by the cable company boxes is hard to compete against.
What if Apple make deals with the cable companies to supply the ATV to them?
I think if Apple move into this area, they'll work with the cable companies. Like they are doing with the iPhone.
What most people realize is that Apple could be so much more with another CEO and that the current CEO has accomplished his mandate to develop Mac OS X for Apple and standardize Macs on the Intel platform.
Apple should be much more price and feature competitive with the computers it builds in China. Mac OS X is a great operating system. But why does Apple stagnate at a 2.9% market share in the PC market?
The quick answer is Steve Jobs and his "vision". Microsoft has had problems with Vista. Apple developped a revolutionary interface for its intelligent iPhone. But there are competitors out there and Apple's lead will soon vanish.
And what will Apple have to show for wasting (again!) the opportunity to recover and capture a 25% or 30% market share?
The quick answer is Steve Jobs and his "vision".
I've been around the Mac platform for 20 years and I am about to give up on a company which doesn't get its act together. Apple is a company that has been in recovery for the last 20 years, no less! Success and a vindication of the Mac platform are just around the corner. Such has been Apple's mantra for the last 20 years. And Steve Jobs is really excited by the great products Apple has in the pipeline. Twenty years later, where does Apple stand in the market?
Apple is really great at making excuses, and blaming Microsoft conspiracies, but in the end, must we blame Steve Jobs and his "vision" of a 2.9% market share for Apple's failures and shortcomings?
Since you're the one with university education, why don't you get up and go and run Apple and increase their marketshare dramatically, the internet has now given nobodies the avenue to come and spew rubbish, i don't blame you.
You may not remember. But their was no iTunes when the iPod was first introduced. Steve Jobs said Apple estimated 60% of the music on iPods are ripped from CD's.
And others estimate that the majority of music on iPods is illegal...
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell
The important part of what I was saying that you missed was "legal". There is also convenience. Ripping CD's is legal and convenient. Ripping DVD's and circumventing copy protection is illegal and not convenient.
Th iPod has a number legal and easily accessible sources of content other than iTunes. Apple TV does not.
And how many people have filled their iPods legally? Lots of people argued and still argue that Apple should open the Fairplay to other vendors so that other purchase, DRM'd music will work with the iPod. Hasn't happened yet and Apple appears to be doing quite well with the iPods.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell
There is next to nothing identical about the mp3 market from 2001 and the current DVR market.
Other than being an immature, fragmented market, filled with mediocre offerings and an obvious need for someone to step up and improve the situtation, you are right, nothing similar at all...
If you want that DVR add-on for ATV, plan on paying for the privilege.
I can see Apple buying Tivo and dropping Tivo's hardware in favor of an ATV-only approach.
That way, if you want the best user interface you have to buy an ATV, and pay a regular fee, otherwise you're stuck with the cable company's clunky DVR.
I can't imagine why Apple would charge a monthly fee for recording TV. Then again, I don't get why existing companies charge monthly fees for their DVRs either.
I can't imagine why Apple would charge a monthly fee for recording TV. Then again, I don't get why existing companies charge monthly fees for their DVRs either.
I think TiVo charges so they can sell the device at a subsidized price. At least at one time, you could pay a flat fee and it's a "lifetime" device.
I can't imagine why Apple would charge a monthly fee for recording TV. Then again, I don't get why existing companies charge monthly fees for their DVRs either.
The monthly fee is primarily for the guide listings services. Obviously, with a large profit margin is build into the monthly fee, but that helps keep the price of the hardware down.
Apple wouldn't have to charge a monthly fee, but it would make sense, given their preferred business model lately.
Abster2core, thanks for pointing out that ouragan is just a troll. It's clear now that he is just a frustrated business school graduate with a degree that has gotten him nowhere. I guess it would be pretty irritating to see a mere high school graduate create and run one of (if not THE) most admired and profitable companies on planet earth. At least you have that piece of paper on your wall though ouragan. Probably in a real nice frame too.
And others estimate that the majority of music on iPods is illegal...
There is no evidence that the majority of iPods are mostly filled with illegal music. Though I'm sure more of the content is from a combination of ripped from CD's and illegal file sharing than from iTunes.
Quote:
And how many people have filled their iPods legally? Lots of people argued and still argue that Apple should open the Fairplay to other vendors so that other purchase, DRM'd music will work with the iPod. Hasn't happened yet and Apple appears to be doing quite well with the iPods.
Illegal file sharing of music is easy to use. Unlike illegal file sharing of video.
I'm not sure of your point about Fairplay. This is my whole point. You can freely and legally use an iPod without ever using iTunes or Fairplay.
Quote:
Other than being an immature, fragmented market, filled with mediocre offerings and an obvious need for someone to step up and improve the situtation, you are right, nothing similar at all...
At this point the DVR market is not all that new anymore. Its not really fragmented in the sense that its up for grabs by anyone. DVR is not that complicated of a service to deliver. DVR is quickly becoming a commodity to be packaged with other services.
The cable box is the major pipeline of content into the television. Its easier and more convenient to just pay the cable provider the extra $10 to add the DVR service. Than it is to add another box and set up a separate service dedicated to DVR.
If the cable cards freed the television from the box. Then there would be more room for everyone to compete for services.
Tivo used to be the best experience. I still love them, but here are a few things that make it not the best anymore:
1) No PIP while in the channel guide or other places.
2) Tivo HD/S3 is very slow in many areas.
3) Tivo HD/S3 does not work with SDV. This means I can't even use it here in Austin.
4) Constant bugs in HD/S3 software make it like a 2 year beta project.
I love Tivo, but HD/S3 has seriously made me unhappy with them.
Agreed. I have TiVo Series 3. Every DVR I have ever used has shown the current channel playing in the corner of the screen while navigating the listings grid or menus and they also show a red dot next to the program title in the listings grid to indicate a scheduled recording. The TiVo is extremely primitive. It overlays the listings grid in the middle which cover 90% of the channel playing and if you want to see what's scheduled to record you must go through the menu which shuts off both the video and audio of the channel currently playing completely. It also takes a good 3 to 5 seconds to change a channel. Why? It should be nearly instantaneous. Pressing "5-7-Enter" for example results in a "searching for signal on Cable in" message while it tunes the channel. Like I said, very primitive. The hardware is great but they have a long, long way to go.
With the industry moving towards the Tru2way platform (formerly OCAP/OpenCable/CableCARD 2.0) they have some serious competition. Even the cable company boxes using Tru2way have significantly better interfaces. They are very much like AppleTV in appearance. Very impressive. TiVo is a licensee of Tru2way along with all the major electronic manufacturers. MyTVGuide interface for Tru2way
To the user who said the Tivo HD Series 3 doesn't work with Standard Definition, that is incorrect.
He said it wouldn't work with Switched Digital Video (SDV) which is true. SDV is what most cable companies are migrating to as it allows them to save significantly on bandwidth. There will be a SDV adaptor available for the Tivo later this year that can be plugged into the USB and Cable in ports but it will have to be rented from the cable company.
There is no evidence that the majority of iPods are mostly filled with illegal music. Though I'm sure more of the content is from a combination of ripped from CD's and illegal file sharing than from iTunes.
You are probably right of there being no evidence. Any studies are sure to be biased one way or the other. Anecdotally at least, it would seem that much, and probably most, is from file sharing. Can you honestly say you know even one person that purchased most of the music on their iPods? Or that you know someone with so much free time sitting at home, that they have ripped thousands of songs from CD's themselves? I sure don't.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell
Illegal file sharing of music is easy to use. Unlike illegal file sharing of video.
Not sure what you mean here. From a technical point of view, exactly what is the difference in "ease of use" between 'illegal' files music and movies? Are their bits different somehow? Unles you mean file size, which really has nothing to do with ease of use...
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell
I'm not sure of your point about Fairplay. This is my whole point. You can freely and legally use an iPod without ever using iTunes or Fairplay.
When iPod first exploded, what was the free and legal way to get music on there? Again, the novelty of ripping your own CD collections got pretty tired for most people, unless the spent far too much time at home alone. Sure you can buy legal, DRM free music now, but when iPod became ubiquitous, this was not the case.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell
At this point the DVR market is not all that new anymore. Its not really fragmented in the sense that its up for grabs by anyone. DVR is not that complicated of a service to deliver. DVR is quickly becoming a commodity to be packaged with other services.
DVR is a hell of a lot more complicated than an MP3 player. Especially if you are going to do it right. And the market is fragmented.Unless eveyone is using TiVo? Or everyone's cable companies are using the same device? Or people in other countries than the US?
DVR is a commodity to be packaged with other services?...Yes, Bingo! Hence the argument would use it as a successful and compelling value-add to Apple TV.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell
The cable box is the major pipeline of content into the television. Its easier and more convenient to just pay the cable provider the extra $10 to add the DVR service. Than it is to add another box and set up a separate service dedicated to DVR.
Well, since Apple is counting on people buying ATV, then I guess they might be thinking the same thing but counting on the ATV being the base device you will pay the extra to enhance. I suppose your logic makes sense, from Apple's point of view, if they were counting on ATV not selling any units. Obviously (to some) Apple is sort of counting on the fact that people would have to willing to add 1 more device (i.e. the ATV for those not paying attention) to their setup. Since Apple is counting on people buying Apple TV, then why not be the device that provides DVR functionality?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell
If the cable cards freed the television from the box. Then there would be more room for everyone to compete for services.
dead on. Then the Apple TV could be media centre, STB and DVR all in one.
Can you honestly say you know even one person that purchased most of the music on their iPods? Or that you know someone with so much free time sitting at home, that they have ripped thousands of songs from CD's themselves? I sure don't.
Yes in fact I do. Most of my friends own the CD's their music came from. Myself and my friends are in our early to mid-30's. We are more from the CD age and do not regularly use peer to peer file sharing.
Quote:
When iPod first exploded, what was the free and legal way to get music on there?
iTunes.
Quote:
Again, the novelty of ripping your own CD collections got pretty tired for most people, unless the spent far too much time at home alone.
I don't see that. If anything it has only gotten easier and more convenient. Ripping a CD takes 5 minutes, iTunes automatically loads all of the album information and cover art. You barely have to do anything.
Quote:
Not sure what you mean here. From a technical point of view, exactly what is the difference in "ease of use" between 'illegal' files music and movies? Are their bits different somehow? Unles you mean file size, which really has nothing to do with ease of use...
The file size is the problem. Video files takes a long time to download and multiple numbers of video files take up a lot of hard drive space. There is no easy software infrastructure like iTunes set up to download, manage, and store illegal video files. There currently is no easy to use hardware infrastructure for viewing illegal video files. All of this will change eventually.
Quote:
DVR is a hell of a lot more complicated than an MP3 player.
I doubt that's true. I'm sure Apple's R&D budget for the iPod+ iTunes completely eclipse that of TiVO.
Quote:
And the market is fragmented.Unless eveyone is using TiVo? Or everyone's cable companies are using the same device? Or people in other countries than the US?
For a market to be fragmented does not mean everyone has to be using the same product. It generally implies there are many suppliers who split the needs and requirements of a market instead of creating a homogeneous one. DRM would be an example of a fragmented market.
Quote:
Well, since Apple is counting on people buying ATV, then I guess they might be thinking the same thing but counting on the ATV being the base device you will pay the extra to enhance. I suppose your logic makes sense, from Apple's point of view, if they were counting on ATV not selling any units. Obviously (to some) Apple is sort of counting on the fact that people would have to willing to add 1 more device (i.e. the ATV for those not paying attention) to their setup. Since Apple is counting on people buying Apple TV, then why not be the device that provides DVR functionality?
The primary function of Apple TV is to stream movies, TV, and music from iTunes. Providing the user with the instant gratification of having content without the need to leave home or wait for the mail.
Apple could add a DVR. I'm not saying they shouldn't. I just don't see DVR being a killer feature because for many people it would be redundant.
Apple already has a legitimate DVR using EyeTV. I just set up the Time Capsule and it will eventually be the storage hub for all sorts of things - like DVR. With its large storage capacity, ability to add additional shared drives, and connection to the web it will be the repository for all things media that will stream (wirelessly or wired) to computers, AppleTV, iPhone, etc..
The article claims $12-$15 to add DVR capability? What exactly do they plan on adding for $15, a pair of rabbit ears? You have three forms of content to support: Over the air, Cable, and Satellite.
I would assume that Shaw Wu has just made an estimate for free-to-air reception, and possibly just one recorder. But that's his general musings.
Quote:
Originally Posted by marzetta7
Awesome! Throw in a BD-R drive into the AppleTV and there you will have the ultimate entertainment hub IMO...
1) Dowload Music and Movies from iTunes
2) Record Live TV with DVR
3) Burn any wanted TV programs onto BD disc via its BDR drive.
BluRay players are much more expensive than an AppleTV. However, it may be a good time for Apple to release a BluRay player (that happens to also be an AppleTV).
Quote:
Originally Posted by wtbard
Since I don't have an HDTV, Apple TV is of no use to me. Perhaps in a few years I'll get one. When I do, it will require new furniture so it will be an expensive proposition.
That's a good point. If they want to sell more, a version for SD televisions would be useful.
Not to mention that government is about to supply rebates to people with old TVs to help them get a digital set top box... nice if the AppleDVR qualified.
The Apple TV would need to be seriously re-engineered to be a DVR. While 160GB might be enough to hold what you want to rent for the night or weekend, its way insufficient for true HD DVR functionality. That's only providing ~20ish hrs of HD programming.
Agreed. A HD TV show uses about 7GB of space... a movie uses double. I was thinking AppleTV only plays back 720p (mpeg4).. but it may not be capable of 1080i (since mpeg2 is so much easier to decode). I wonder if Apple could transcode the broadcast into a smaller version?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbene12
Who is going to buy South Park episodes when the same interface can just snag it for free using DVR? <snip> I personally think this patent filing is complete hedge.
It could be a hedge. Or Apple could be absolutely ready to release a DVR and already be negotiating with existing providers so that IF they partner with iTunes for South Park (including supplying full episode information, exact start and end time, etc), Apple can make sure people watch the South Park ads (alongside a $1-$2 "upgrade to no-ads" version).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wiggin
Competing with cable and satellite TV in the DVR market would be VERY difficult. It's not just that other companies aren't doing it very well...they just aren't doing it.
I agree that competing in the CableCard space would be difficult. It's like breaking into the mobile phone market - there are so many deals between box makers and the cable networks, difficult to get a foot hold.
However, Apple may instead want to replace cable TV. Free recording of FTA is a start. Perhaps they can offer a cheaper 'subscription model' for existing TV shows on the iTunes store. A HBO 'subscription' could allow this months HBO movies to be downloaded to watch.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRussell
It's interesting that they really don't provide any analysis as to why including a DVR would all of a sudden change AppleTV into big business. Frankly, I don't buy it. It's the kind of thing that internet forum boys would like to see, but I don't see how it would fundamentally change the market for the device.
My guesses
1) People know they have to go digital shortly so they'll be looking. An inbuilt tuner puts Apple "on their map"
2) There are still bandwidth issues. A device that records FTA avoids those.
3) Apple itself has an appeal to people at the moment. This is a product that they could readily start with.
4) People like to buy a product that can do something without extra costs. If they offer season passes for free on all FTA shows, movie rental or buying TV shows (season passes) is an option that can be used later.
5) International - so many places have no deals in place at all. We can't buy or rent movies or TV. Lets start the ball rolling.
The ideal peripheral would be the AppleTV we have now + multi-tuner 1080i DVR + Blu-Ray player that can upgrade itself over time.
But...
The biggest problem Apple faces is taming the content providers. Would they be able to court and contain DirecTV, Dish Network, Warner, Comcast, U-Verse, Verizon FIOS, etc? Would they be forced to pick just one, as they did with iPhone, and would this hurt them? Would they be able to negotiate with companies that seem more predeluvian than mobile telephony providers?
I think AppleTV would still need a true "always-wanted" feature like Random Access Voicemail on the iPhone. I have no idea what that would be. A very stable interface with stable playback would be enough for me. I'm about to throw our second DirecTV HD DVR out the window. Perhaps four or more concurrent 1080i streams would be enough. Do one better than Series Three and just dump the pre-HD tuners.
Comments
I don't think DVR in itself will do much to help ATV. It may have been different when DVR was rare But today cable companies dominate the DVR market that I'd unlikely to change.
What would help ATV more is to open up to other video download services. Such as Netflix, Hulu, and Joost.
I agree 100%.
This is the reason why Apple never bothered implementing DVR functionality. Cable companies now own this market. The integration and convenience offered by the cable company boxes is hard to compete against.
I agree 100%.
This is the reason why Apple never bothered implementing DVR functionality. Cable companies now own this market. The integration and convenience offered by the cable company boxes is hard to compete against.
What if Apple make deals with the cable companies to supply the ATV to them?
I think if Apple move into this area, they'll work with the cable companies. Like they are doing with the iPhone.
See the full article at: http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/36359/118/
What most people realize is that Apple could be so much more with another CEO and that the current CEO has accomplished his mandate to develop Mac OS X for Apple and standardize Macs on the Intel platform.
Apple should be much more price and feature competitive with the computers it builds in China. Mac OS X is a great operating system. But why does Apple stagnate at a 2.9% market share in the PC market?
The quick answer is Steve Jobs and his "vision". Microsoft has had problems with Vista. Apple developped a revolutionary interface for its intelligent iPhone. But there are competitors out there and Apple's lead will soon vanish.
And what will Apple have to show for wasting (again!) the opportunity to recover and capture a 25% or 30% market share?
The quick answer is Steve Jobs and his "vision".
I've been around the Mac platform for 20 years and I am about to give up on a company which doesn't get its act together. Apple is a company that has been in recovery for the last 20 years, no less! Success and a vindication of the Mac platform are just around the corner. Such has been Apple's mantra for the last 20 years. And Steve Jobs is really excited by the great products Apple has in the pipeline. Twenty years later, where does Apple stand in the market?
Apple is really great at making excuses, and blaming Microsoft conspiracies, but in the end, must we blame Steve Jobs and his "vision" of a 2.9% market share for Apple's failures and shortcomings?
Since you're the one with university education, why don't you get up and go and run Apple and increase their marketshare dramatically, the internet has now given nobodies the avenue to come and spew rubbish, i don't blame you.
You may not remember. But their was no iTunes when the iPod was first introduced. Steve Jobs said Apple estimated 60% of the music on iPods are ripped from CD's.
And others estimate that the majority of music on iPods is illegal...
The important part of what I was saying that you missed was "legal". There is also convenience. Ripping CD's is legal and convenient. Ripping DVD's and circumventing copy protection is illegal and not convenient.
Th iPod has a number legal and easily accessible sources of content other than iTunes. Apple TV does not.
And how many people have filled their iPods legally? Lots of people argued and still argue that Apple should open the Fairplay to other vendors so that other purchase, DRM'd music will work with the iPod. Hasn't happened yet and Apple appears to be doing quite well with the iPods.
There is next to nothing identical about the mp3 market from 2001 and the current DVR market.
Other than being an immature, fragmented market, filled with mediocre offerings and an obvious need for someone to step up and improve the situtation, you are right, nothing similar at all...
I can see Apple buying Tivo and dropping Tivo's hardware in favor of an ATV-only approach.
That way, if you want the best user interface you have to buy an ATV, and pay a regular fee, otherwise you're stuck with the cable company's clunky DVR.
I can't imagine why Apple would charge a monthly fee for recording TV. Then again, I don't get why existing companies charge monthly fees for their DVRs either.
I think TiVo charges so they can sell the device at a subsidized price. At least at one time, you could pay a flat fee and it's a "lifetime" device.
I can't imagine why Apple would charge a monthly fee for recording TV. Then again, I don't get why existing companies charge monthly fees for their DVRs either.
The monthly fee is primarily for the guide listings services. Obviously, with a large profit margin is build into the monthly fee, but that helps keep the price of the hardware down.
Apple wouldn't have to charge a monthly fee, but it would make sense, given their preferred business model lately.
And others estimate that the majority of music on iPods is illegal...
There is no evidence that the majority of iPods are mostly filled with illegal music. Though I'm sure more of the content is from a combination of ripped from CD's and illegal file sharing than from iTunes.
And how many people have filled their iPods legally? Lots of people argued and still argue that Apple should open the Fairplay to other vendors so that other purchase, DRM'd music will work with the iPod. Hasn't happened yet and Apple appears to be doing quite well with the iPods.
Illegal file sharing of music is easy to use. Unlike illegal file sharing of video.
I'm not sure of your point about Fairplay. This is my whole point. You can freely and legally use an iPod without ever using iTunes or Fairplay.
Other than being an immature, fragmented market, filled with mediocre offerings and an obvious need for someone to step up and improve the situtation, you are right, nothing similar at all...
At this point the DVR market is not all that new anymore. Its not really fragmented in the sense that its up for grabs by anyone. DVR is not that complicated of a service to deliver. DVR is quickly becoming a commodity to be packaged with other services.
The cable box is the major pipeline of content into the television. Its easier and more convenient to just pay the cable provider the extra $10 to add the DVR service. Than it is to add another box and set up a separate service dedicated to DVR.
If the cable cards freed the television from the box. Then there would be more room for everyone to compete for services.
Tivo used to be the best experience. I still love them, but here are a few things that make it not the best anymore:
1) No PIP while in the channel guide or other places.
2) Tivo HD/S3 is very slow in many areas.
3) Tivo HD/S3 does not work with SDV. This means I can't even use it here in Austin.
4) Constant bugs in HD/S3 software make it like a 2 year beta project.
I love Tivo, but HD/S3 has seriously made me unhappy with them.
Agreed. I have TiVo Series 3. Every DVR I have ever used has shown the current channel playing in the corner of the screen while navigating the listings grid or menus and they also show a red dot next to the program title in the listings grid to indicate a scheduled recording. The TiVo is extremely primitive. It overlays the listings grid in the middle which cover 90% of the channel playing and if you want to see what's scheduled to record you must go through the menu which shuts off both the video and audio of the channel currently playing completely. It also takes a good 3 to 5 seconds to change a channel. Why? It should be nearly instantaneous. Pressing "5-7-Enter" for example results in a "searching for signal on Cable in" message while it tunes the channel. Like I said, very primitive. The hardware is great but they have a long, long way to go.
With the industry moving towards the Tru2way platform (formerly OCAP/OpenCable/CableCARD 2.0) they have some serious competition. Even the cable company boxes using Tru2way have significantly better interfaces. They are very much like AppleTV in appearance. Very impressive. TiVo is a licensee of Tru2way along with all the major electronic manufacturers. MyTVGuide interface for Tru2way
So what DVR is better? It's sure not the ones supplied by the cable or FiOS companies.
The ones supplied by the cable companies are better in some significant ways. See above.
To the user who said the Tivo HD Series 3 doesn't work with Standard Definition, that is incorrect.
He said it wouldn't work with Switched Digital Video (SDV) which is true. SDV is what most cable companies are migrating to as it allows them to save significantly on bandwidth. There will be a SDV adaptor available for the Tivo later this year that can be plugged into the USB and Cable in ports but it will have to be rented from the cable company.
There is no evidence that the majority of iPods are mostly filled with illegal music. Though I'm sure more of the content is from a combination of ripped from CD's and illegal file sharing than from iTunes.
You are probably right of there being no evidence. Any studies are sure to be biased one way or the other. Anecdotally at least, it would seem that much, and probably most, is from file sharing. Can you honestly say you know even one person that purchased most of the music on their iPods? Or that you know someone with so much free time sitting at home, that they have ripped thousands of songs from CD's themselves? I sure don't.
Illegal file sharing of music is easy to use. Unlike illegal file sharing of video.
Not sure what you mean here. From a technical point of view, exactly what is the difference in "ease of use" between 'illegal' files music and movies? Are their bits different somehow? Unles you mean file size, which really has nothing to do with ease of use...
I'm not sure of your point about Fairplay. This is my whole point. You can freely and legally use an iPod without ever using iTunes or Fairplay.
When iPod first exploded, what was the free and legal way to get music on there? Again, the novelty of ripping your own CD collections got pretty tired for most people, unless the spent far too much time at home alone. Sure you can buy legal, DRM free music now, but when iPod became ubiquitous, this was not the case.
At this point the DVR market is not all that new anymore. Its not really fragmented in the sense that its up for grabs by anyone. DVR is not that complicated of a service to deliver. DVR is quickly becoming a commodity to be packaged with other services.
DVR is a hell of a lot more complicated than an MP3 player. Especially if you are going to do it right. And the market is fragmented.Unless eveyone is using TiVo? Or everyone's cable companies are using the same device? Or people in other countries than the US?
DVR is a commodity to be packaged with other services?...Yes, Bingo! Hence the argument would use it as a successful and compelling value-add to Apple TV.
The cable box is the major pipeline of content into the television. Its easier and more convenient to just pay the cable provider the extra $10 to add the DVR service. Than it is to add another box and set up a separate service dedicated to DVR.
Well, since Apple is counting on people buying ATV, then I guess they might be thinking the same thing but counting on the ATV being the base device you will pay the extra to enhance. I suppose your logic makes sense, from Apple's point of view, if they were counting on ATV not selling any units. Obviously (to some) Apple is sort of counting on the fact that people would have to willing to add 1 more device (i.e. the ATV for those not paying attention) to their setup. Since Apple is counting on people buying Apple TV, then why not be the device that provides DVR functionality?
If the cable cards freed the television from the box. Then there would be more room for everyone to compete for services.
dead on. Then the Apple TV could be media centre, STB and DVR all in one.
Can you honestly say you know even one person that purchased most of the music on their iPods? Or that you know someone with so much free time sitting at home, that they have ripped thousands of songs from CD's themselves? I sure don't.
Yes in fact I do. Most of my friends own the CD's their music came from. Myself and my friends are in our early to mid-30's. We are more from the CD age and do not regularly use peer to peer file sharing.
When iPod first exploded, what was the free and legal way to get music on there?
iTunes.
Again, the novelty of ripping your own CD collections got pretty tired for most people, unless the spent far too much time at home alone.
I don't see that. If anything it has only gotten easier and more convenient. Ripping a CD takes 5 minutes, iTunes automatically loads all of the album information and cover art. You barely have to do anything.
Not sure what you mean here. From a technical point of view, exactly what is the difference in "ease of use" between 'illegal' files music and movies? Are their bits different somehow? Unles you mean file size, which really has nothing to do with ease of use...
The file size is the problem. Video files takes a long time to download and multiple numbers of video files take up a lot of hard drive space. There is no easy software infrastructure like iTunes set up to download, manage, and store illegal video files. There currently is no easy to use hardware infrastructure for viewing illegal video files. All of this will change eventually.
DVR is a hell of a lot more complicated than an MP3 player.
I doubt that's true. I'm sure Apple's R&D budget for the iPod+ iTunes completely eclipse that of TiVO.
And the market is fragmented.Unless eveyone is using TiVo? Or everyone's cable companies are using the same device? Or people in other countries than the US?
For a market to be fragmented does not mean everyone has to be using the same product. It generally implies there are many suppliers who split the needs and requirements of a market instead of creating a homogeneous one. DRM would be an example of a fragmented market.
Well, since Apple is counting on people buying ATV, then I guess they might be thinking the same thing but counting on the ATV being the base device you will pay the extra to enhance. I suppose your logic makes sense, from Apple's point of view, if they were counting on ATV not selling any units. Obviously (to some) Apple is sort of counting on the fact that people would have to willing to add 1 more device (i.e. the ATV for those not paying attention) to their setup. Since Apple is counting on people buying Apple TV, then why not be the device that provides DVR functionality?
The primary function of Apple TV is to stream movies, TV, and music from iTunes. Providing the user with the instant gratification of having content without the need to leave home or wait for the mail.
Apple could add a DVR. I'm not saying they shouldn't. I just don't see DVR being a killer feature because for many people it would be redundant.
The article claims $12-$15 to add DVR capability? What exactly do they plan on adding for $15, a pair of rabbit ears? You have three forms of content to support: Over the air, Cable, and Satellite.
I would assume that Shaw Wu has just made an estimate for free-to-air reception, and possibly just one recorder. But that's his general musings.
Awesome! Throw in a BD-R drive into the AppleTV and there you will have the ultimate entertainment hub IMO...
1) Dowload Music and Movies from iTunes
2) Record Live TV with DVR
3) Burn any wanted TV programs onto BD disc via its BDR drive.
BluRay players are much more expensive than an AppleTV. However, it may be a good time for Apple to release a BluRay player (that happens to also be an AppleTV).
Since I don't have an HDTV, Apple TV is of no use to me. Perhaps in a few years I'll get one. When I do, it will require new furniture so it will be an expensive proposition.
That's a good point. If they want to sell more, a version for SD televisions would be useful.
Not to mention that government is about to supply rebates to people with old TVs to help them get a digital set top box... nice if the AppleDVR qualified.
The Apple TV would need to be seriously re-engineered to be a DVR. While 160GB might be enough to hold what you want to rent for the night or weekend, its way insufficient for true HD DVR functionality. That's only providing ~20ish hrs of HD programming.
Agreed. A HD TV show uses about 7GB of space... a movie uses double. I was thinking AppleTV only plays back 720p (mpeg4).. but it may not be capable of 1080i (since mpeg2 is so much easier to decode). I wonder if Apple could transcode the broadcast into a smaller version?
Who is going to buy South Park episodes when the same interface can just snag it for free using DVR? <snip> I personally think this patent filing is complete hedge.
It could be a hedge. Or Apple could be absolutely ready to release a DVR and already be negotiating with existing providers so that IF they partner with iTunes for South Park (including supplying full episode information, exact start and end time, etc), Apple can make sure people watch the South Park ads (alongside a $1-$2 "upgrade to no-ads" version).
Competing with cable and satellite TV in the DVR market would be VERY difficult. It's not just that other companies aren't doing it very well...they just aren't doing it.
I agree that competing in the CableCard space would be difficult. It's like breaking into the mobile phone market - there are so many deals between box makers and the cable networks, difficult to get a foot hold.
However, Apple may instead want to replace cable TV. Free recording of FTA is a start. Perhaps they can offer a cheaper 'subscription model' for existing TV shows on the iTunes store. A HBO 'subscription' could allow this months HBO movies to be downloaded to watch.
It's interesting that they really don't provide any analysis as to why including a DVR would all of a sudden change AppleTV into big business. Frankly, I don't buy it. It's the kind of thing that internet forum boys would like to see, but I don't see how it would fundamentally change the market for the device.
My guesses
1) People know they have to go digital shortly so they'll be looking. An inbuilt tuner puts Apple "on their map"
2) There are still bandwidth issues. A device that records FTA avoids those.
3) Apple itself has an appeal to people at the moment. This is a product that they could readily start with.
4) People like to buy a product that can do something without extra costs. If they offer season passes for free on all FTA shows, movie rental or buying TV shows (season passes) is an option that can be used later.
5) International - so many places have no deals in place at all. We can't buy or rent movies or TV. Lets start the ball rolling.
But...
The biggest problem Apple faces is taming the content providers. Would they be able to court and contain DirecTV, Dish Network, Warner, Comcast, U-Verse, Verizon FIOS, etc? Would they be forced to pick just one, as they did with iPhone, and would this hurt them? Would they be able to negotiate with companies that seem more predeluvian than mobile telephony providers?
I think AppleTV would still need a true "always-wanted" feature like Random Access Voicemail on the iPhone. I have no idea what that would be. A very stable interface with stable playback would be enough for me. I'm about to throw our second DirecTV HD DVR out the window. Perhaps four or more concurrent 1080i streams would be enough. Do one better than Series Three and just dump the pre-HD tuners.