Apple warns resellers of Mac and iPod drought, says load up now

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware edited January 2014
With the first phase of the iPhone 3G launch in the rear view, Apple Inc. is now shifting much of its focus towards product refreshes targeting its two other revenue drivers and is advising resellers to be prepared for product shortages in the interim.



More specifically, the Cupertino-based company in recent days issued an advisement bulletin to some of its channel partners hinting at a manufacturing ramp down of iPods and certain Mac notebook models, which will result in limited supplies of those products in the coming weeks.



To best address this situation and assure ample supplies for new customer orders through August, Apple "strongly suggested" that resellers bring in -- or place immediate lump orders for -- approximately 4 weeks worth of their top selling iPod models. Supplies of the players would start to become extremely limited in the next seven days, the bulletin said.



Similarly, the company also advised resellers that it would be in their best interest to place at least 3 weeks worth of orders for existing Mac notebook models. In this part of the communication, Apple is said to have specifically identified 13-inch MacBooks and 15- and 17-inch MacBook Pros, but made no mention of the MacBook Air.



Based on past experiences and knowledge of their own inventory sell-through, those resellers who received the bulletin believe the notice is a strong indicator that Apple will begin introducing its holiday consumer electronics and Mac offerings sometime in early to mid-September.



Indeed, recent anecdotal evidence has suggested Apple is readying new models of both the iPod nano and the iPod touch. A report from AppleInsider earlier this week also provided an update on the company's redesigned MacBook and MacBook Pros, noting that shipments were unlikely for at least another 6 to 8 weeks.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 66
    shanmugamshanmugam Posts: 1,200member
    Apple Event Coming Soon
  • Reply 2 of 66
    Oh, boy! Here comes my new laptop!
  • Reply 3 of 66
    Im excited its been a while since an apple event.
  • Reply 4 of 66
    bhall7bhall7 Posts: 1member
    Crap...I was getting ready to buy a MacBook 13" and get a free iPod touch as I begin my full-time MBA program. Except, I can't wait for the new models to come out because classes start Sept. 3, and I need it by then.
  • Reply 5 of 66
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 12,667member
    Well nice except for already outfitting myself with a MBP & a 3G Phone this year! One of these devices would have to be very compelling to generate a buy this year from me.



    By the way I really love my MBP and iPhone. Great hardware but they do need to work on the software especially the iPhone.



    Frankly I'm expecting that all of the iPod line gets some sort of make over. Also really hoping for massive technology strides. It would be nice to see a Touch based device that is at least 3tikes faster and runnig on half the power. Even better would be seeing Apple realize that the iPod are not so much music players as the are minature computers.



    To that end I'm hoping that they really start to flesh out Mobile OS. Things like Bluetooth and hardware ports support. It is a bit of a shame that my 3G has this really capable Bluetooth tech but limited ability to us it.



    Maybe I will get lucky and have a winfall of cash come my way.







    Dave
  • Reply 6 of 66
    dm3dm3 Posts: 148member
    What about a new Mini?! Its the one in the most urgent need of an update. Are they finally going to kill it? Did the notice say anything about the Mini specifically?
  • Reply 7 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,334member
    As Apple usually likes to have 3 to 5 weeks of product in the supply line, it seems that AI's estimate of a 6 to 8 week date for new product may be a bit long.
  • Reply 8 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dm3 View Post


    What about a new Mini?! Its the one in the most urgent need of an update. Are they finally going to kill it? The the notice say anything about the Mini specifically?



    It didn't say anything other than portables and iPods. No desktop models were mentioned, including the hotly anticipated Nehalem Mac Pro.



    And as for that, As I've been saying, there is now evidence that Nehalem is being moved up. So I'm expecting to see a new Mac Pro sooner rather than later.



    http://www.tomshardware.com/news/int...ield,5968.html
  • Reply 9 of 66
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    As Apple usually likes to have 3 to 5 weeks of product in the supply line, it seems that AI's estimate of a 6 to 8 week date for new product may be a bit long.



    if apple said place 4 weeks of inventory...that is bear minimal amount of time. Apple has historically let the supply lines turn dry for a few weeks before refreshing. (Customers do not like buying laptops and ipods, only to have them refreshed a week later). By letting supplies dry up, less people will be buying these products. Also, apple will probably wait a few weeks after the ipod promotional ends before updating.



    My estimate continues to be Early October.
  • Reply 10 of 66
    casper3casper3 Posts: 14member
    Keynote presentations, the countdowns, the anticipation... WOW!

    I just LOVE Apple Events!
  • Reply 11 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by iOrlando View Post


    if apple said place 4 weeks of inventory...that is bear minimal amount of time. Apple has historically let the supply lines turn dry for a few weeks before refreshing. (Customers do not like buying laptops and ipods, only to have them refreshed a week later). By letting supplies dry up, less people will be buying these products. Also, apple will probably wait a few weeks after the ipod promotional ends before updating.



    My estimate continues to be Early October.



    Apple tries for a one week dry supply line. If they are wrong in their estimates, as they were for the iPhone last quarter before the new one came out, they have problems.
  • Reply 12 of 66
    probablyprobably Posts: 139member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Apple tries for a one week dry supply line. If they are wrong in their estimates, as they were for the iPhone last quarter before the new one came out, they have problems.



    Was it ever substantiated that the 2-month gap wasn't intended to be so unnervingly long?



    From what I've read about the way they've employed deferred revenue, it seems like its sole purpose is to mask (not necessarily in a deceitful way) any drop in iPhone revenue during this transition. I have a feeling that they see their out-of-nowhere releases that worked well for keeping iPod demand strong leading up to new releases as especially frustrating when you sign a binding contract with this particular product.
  • Reply 13 of 66
    feynmanfeynman Posts: 1,087member
    So if iPod Touch gets updated to 64 GB, think it's logical the iPhone will be at 16 and 32?
  • Reply 14 of 66
    pbg4 dudepbg4 dude Posts: 1,611member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by probably View Post


    Was it ever substantiated that the 2-month gap wasn't intended to be so unnervingly long?



    From what I've read about the way they've employed deferred revenue, it seems like its sole purpose is to mask (not necessarily in a deceitful way) any drop in iPhone revenue during this transition. I have a feeling that they see their out-of-nowhere releases that worked well for keeping iPod demand strong leading up to new releases as especially frustrating when you sign a binding contract with this particular product.



    It was specifically mentioned in Jobs' WWDC keynote. Jobs said that Apple had underestimated demand for the v1 iPhone when they stopped production.
  • Reply 15 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by probably View Post


    Was it ever substantiated that the 2-month gap wasn't intended to be so unnervingly long?



    From what I've read about the way they've employed deferred revenue, it seems like its sole purpose is to mask (not necessarily in a deceitful way) any drop in iPhone revenue during this transition. I have a feeling that they see their out-of-nowhere releases that worked well for keeping iPod demand strong leading up to new releases as especially frustrating when you sign a binding contract with this particular product.



    No it's not. Apple is reporting much less revenue that it otherwise would have reported if they simply state sales dollars. What this does is to give a stream of revenue. While that evens out the numbers somewhat, over the long run, it doesn't. Revenue reported still reflects the ups and downs of sales. The number of phones sold is made public, so Apple isn't trying to conceal anything.



    There is no way to check if what Apple said about the sales numbers shortfall is true, though there is no reason to doubt them. I've seen estimates that have Apple selling over a million phones that period rather that the 717,000 that they did sell. While many of those sales were made up with the new models, there were no doubt those who couldn't wait, and so those sales were lost. What would that number be? Who knows?
  • Reply 16 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Feynman View Post


    So if iPod Touch gets updated to 64 GB, think it's logical the iPhone will be at 16 and 32?



    I doubt the iTouch will go to 64GB now, and the 3G iPhone just came out, so nothing will happen there either.
  • Reply 17 of 66
    As usual, expect the new stuff to come as soon as this summer's iPod/MacBook back-to-school promotion ends in September. They use these promotions to move out the old stock before the new models arrive.
  • Reply 18 of 66
    dcorbandcorban Posts: 58member
    An updated iPod Touch 32GB with a much lower price would be good.
  • Reply 19 of 66
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    As Apple usually likes to have 3 to 5 weeks of product in the supply line, it seems that AI's estimate of a 6 to 8 week date for new product may be a bit long.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Apple tries for a one week dry supply line. If they are wrong in their estimates, as they were for the iPhone last quarter before the new one came out, they have problems.



    Yup, I'm with melgross (you're still around w00t)... Apple has notorious, ultra-conservative inventory control. Which usually means whatever new stuff comes out will be mouth-wateringly sexy and hot and... sold out quickly.



    It's kind of a tactic. "Artificially?" inflate/ project demand by holding a firm, choking grip on supply. I'm not sure how I feel about it, just that Apple needs to do what it needs to do to manage the very high growth the company is experiencing.
  • Reply 20 of 66
    nipsnips Posts: 1member
    Tuesday Sept 16-- perhaps the 15th-- for a Macbook update. Apple seems to like Tuesdays (See the first few Tuesdays of the year) and this fits with AI's 6-8 week prediction. Also, the back to school iPod promotion ends on the 14th, so it seems likely that they would push out the remaining stock during this period and unveil the new upgrade shortly thereafter. Here's hoping.
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