Mac presence on web up nearly 5 percent in September

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
More and more consumers are choosing Apple computers to access their favorite online content, with the presence of Macs on the Web growing more than 4.7 percent last month, according to the latest market share figures from Net Applications.



Macs accounted for 8.23 percent of all traffic on Web sites tracked by the firm during the month of September, up from 7.86 percent the month before. Those gains came largely at the expense of rival systems running flavors of the Windows operating system, which saw their combined share slip from 90.66 percent to 90.29 percent.



Also on the rise was the share of Web traffic coming from iPhones, which inched up nearly 7 percent from August to garner a combined 0.32 percent share. Those gains, however, pale in comparison to the more than 57 percent leap made by the touchscreen handsets immediately following the release of the iPhone 3G in July.



Meanwhile, Apple's Mac- and Windows-based Safari web browser also maintained its forward progress during the month of September, with its share climbing a bit over 4 percent.



The largest gains in the browser space came by way of Google, whose new Chrome offering snagged a 0.78 percent share of all web traffic during its first partial month on the market.



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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 27
    petermacpetermac Posts: 115member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    More and more consumers are choosing Apple computers to access their favorite online content, with the presence of Macs on the Web growing more than 4.7 percent last month, according to the latest market share figures from Net Applications.




    4.7% X 12 months=56% growth pa. AAPL has got to go up if this trend continues even for the next 3-4 months. It confirms apples greater acceptance and uptake versus the rest of the industry. Is this a good metric, given new OSX users might browse more.... not really, iPhone yes, but not on Mac OSX.



    Can this method be used to measure the contribution that iTunes data has made to internet traffic. ie can hi def d/l inflate OS usage?



    Edit added last line.
  • Reply 2 of 27
    Just as important as the Mac climbing up is Windows' slide toward 90%.



    90% is considered somewhat of a magic number, over which one has a monopoly... and under which one does not. It looks like Windows is about to lose it's iron grip.



    Notice how the tone has changed already? People used to say their software runs on Mac and Windows. Then they stopped saying that, figuring practically everyone uses Windows anyway. Now the phrase is back. Developers can't ignore Macs anymore, unless they want to lose one in ten potential customers.
  • Reply 3 of 27
    virgil-tb2virgil-tb2 Posts: 1,416member
    I'm not sure what the point of breaking out iPhone numbers is in this analysis. If it's OS based, then iPhone numbers should be added into the Mac.



    I am sure that the mobile Windows and mobile Linux numbers are just too small to register by themselves and so are added into the desktop figures, but if so then surely iPhone should similarly be blended into the desktops figures.



    This should be two charts, one with just the OS numbers and a second one dealing with the battle of the much much smaller mobile versions of the same OS's. iPhone's numbers are really only relevant compared to other mobile platforms anyway.
  • Reply 4 of 27
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2 View Post


    I'm not sure what the point of breaking out iPhone numbers is in this analysis. If it's OS based, then iPhone numbers should be added into the Mac.



    I am sure that the mobile Windows and mobile Linux numbers are just too small to register by themselves and so are added into the desktop figures, but if so then surely iPhone should similarly be blended into the desktops figures.



    This should be two charts, one with just the OS numbers and a second one dealing with the battle of the much much smaller mobile versions of the same OS's. iPhone's numbers are really only relevant compared to other mobile platforms anyway.



    They have many more stats broken down on their site.
    WinCE-based devices register as 1/6th of OS X iPhone with 0.06% and S60-based devices register at 1/11th of OS X iPhone-based devices with 0.03%.
  • Reply 5 of 27
    enzosenzos Posts: 344member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by petermac View Post


    4.7% X 12 months=56% growth pa.



    Edit added last line.



    For exponential growth 1.047^12 = 1.73; so it's 73% per 12 months.
  • Reply 6 of 27
    Why would you anticipate even geometric (linear) growth for something like this, much less exponential growth? The numbers that you got should tell you that neither expectation is realistic. The error in extrapolation is analytically undetermined except for when the data corresponds to some physical phenomenon that is perfectly understood to abide by an exact analytical formula. Both of those projections are entirely meaningless.
  • Reply 7 of 27
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,471member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TheToe View Post


    Just as important as the Mac climbing up is Windows' slide toward 90%.



    90% is considered somewhat of a magic number, over which one has a monopoly... and under which one does not. It looks like Windows is about to lose it's iron grip.



    Notice how the tone has changed already? People used to say their software runs on Mac and Windows. Then they stopped saying that, figuring practically everyone uses Windows anyway. Now the phrase is back. Developers can't ignore Macs anymore, unless they want to lose one in ten potential customers.



    There is no absolute percentage required for something to be declared a monopoly.
  • Reply 8 of 27
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,471member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2 View Post


    I'm not sure what the point of breaking out iPhone numbers is in this analysis. If it's OS based, then iPhone numbers should be added into the Mac.



    I am sure that the mobile Windows and mobile Linux numbers are just too small to register by themselves and so are added into the desktop figures, but if so then surely iPhone should similarly be blended into the desktops figures.



    This should be two charts, one with just the OS numbers and a second one dealing with the battle of the much much smaller mobile versions of the same OS's. iPhone's numbers are really only relevant compared to other mobile platforms anyway.



    The iPhone is a different platform, and can be determined that way. so are the other phone platforms. Why would you ASSUME that their numbers would be combined with desktop numbers? They are not.



    These surveys rarely list every separate item once they fall below a certain number, or below the first five or so top results. they will be listed in the actual report.



    That's why Apple is never listed in the published surveys about world's computer manufacturers, because they fall below number five. They are on the non public list. You just have to look deeper.
  • Reply 9 of 27
    luisdiasluisdias Posts: 277member
    Quote:

    Why would you anticipate even geometric (linear) growth for something like this, much less exponential growth? The numbers that you got should tell you that neither expectation is realistic. The error in extrapolation is analytically undetermined except for when the data corresponds to some physical phenomenon that is perfectly understood to abide by an exact analytical formula. Both of those projections are entirely meaningless.



    I agree. It is at least necessary to make a regression fit line, in the linear case. I did this fairly quickly with the 12 months the site has, and I've come up with a line that has R^2=0.7821, which means not so good, but not too bad. It generates a trend of 0.1% per month increase, which is ~1.2% per year (in absolutes). It gives a growth of 16% per year.



    This means that this particular month was very good. There have been months that the growth was negative.



    In a exponential curve, I got R^2=0.7736, quite similar to the linear one. The equation gives a growth of 0.0135/month, 1.35% per month, or 1.0135^12 = 17.46% per year.



    So easy folks. If this is a tipping point, the stats don't really confirm it just yet.
  • Reply 10 of 27
    luisdiasluisdias Posts: 277member
    Of course, given 17% of growth per year, and with 8 points, we could envision a future where Apple would be 9.4% in sep 2009, 12.8% in sep 2011, 20.51% in sep 2014, 33% in sep 2017, 53% in sep 2020.



    I'm afraid though that life is never this simple.
  • Reply 11 of 27
    kendokakendoka Posts: 110member
    Would be a major thing if Apple could rise above 10% - this would make it harder for web developers etc. to ignore Macs.
  • Reply 12 of 27
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by LuisDias View Post


    Of course, given 17% of growth per year, and with 8 points, we could envision a future where Apple would be 9.4% in sep 2009, 12.8% in sep 2011, 20.51% in sep 2014, 33% in sep 2017, 53% in sep 2020.



    I'm afraid though that life is never this simple.



    Those numbers for OS X aren't just representing OS X, but also representing Apple's HW. Even the largest PC vendor in the world only has 20% marketshare. If Apple matched that to become #1 PC vendor worldwide they would still be giving 80% to Windows et al.
  • Reply 13 of 27
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kendoka View Post


    Would be a major thing if Apple could rise above 10% - this would make it harder for web developers etc. to ignore Macs.



    The platform is the issue with web developers, it's the browser engine. With Google in the mix with Chrome and the iPhone being the most popular method to access web on a phone/MID, There are much more powerful factors working than Apple's OS marketshare to support WebKit.
  • Reply 14 of 27
    thetoethetoe Posts: 84member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    There is no absolute percentage required for something to be declared a monopoly.



    No, 'course not. But from what I understand, there is a major perceptual effect to controlling more than 90% of a market. (Though to be fair, I've also heard 80% referred to as a major hurdle.)
  • Reply 15 of 27
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,471member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TheToe View Post


    No, 'course not. But from what I understand, there is a major perceptual effect to controlling more than 90% of a market. (Though to be fair, I've also heard 80% referred to as a major hurdle.)



    It can also be 70%. Under certain circumstances, and depending on the industry, it could be 60%



    There is no one rule.
  • Reply 16 of 27
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,142member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Those numbers for OS X aren't just representing OS X, but also representing Apple's HW. Even the largest PC vendor in the world only has 20% marketshare. If Apple matched that to become #1 PC vendor worldwide they would still be giving 80% to Windows et al.



    Becoming the #1 PC vendor would be nice regardless of Windows share and it could happen I think.
  • Reply 17 of 27
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    Becoming the #1 PC vendor would be nice regardless of Windows share and it could happen I think.



    I think 20% for the US is doable within a couple years if they lower the starting price of notebook Macs. For the worldwide share, they are too low and not in enough countries to have the same effect, but If they were #1 in the US, I'd assume they would at least be in the top 4 worldwide.



    It's this reason of PC vendor percentage that I don't see Windows ever going away in favour of OS X. If they reached US dominance, and they are already saturated as the primary consumer choice for >$1000 machines, the only way for them to grow their HW sales would be to drastically lower prices or go into the business sector, but I don't think these business machines would be called or look like Macs if they did that.
  • Reply 18 of 27
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,471member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I think 20% for the US is doable within a couple years if they lower the starting price of notebook Macs. For the worldwide share, they are too low and not in enough countries to have the same effect, but If they were #1 in the US, I'd assume they would at least be in the top 4 worldwide.



    A couple of years? That's very optimistic. I think it's possible in five years, maybe, if everything goes just right, in four.
  • Reply 19 of 27
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,142member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    A couple of years? That's very optimistic. I think it's possible in five years, maybe, if everything goes just right, in four.



    It's ironic that the competition between PC manufacturers helps Apple who actually have a form of monopoly in that they are the only source of that particular product we all love, the combination of Apple hardware and software (OK, most of us lol). That (i.e. only source) being my interpretation of the M word rather than % of market share.
  • Reply 20 of 27
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,471member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    It's ironic that the competition between PC manufacturers helps Apple who actually have a form of monopoly in that they are the only source of that particular product we all love, the combination of Apple hardware and software (OK, most of us lol). That (i.e. only source) being my interpretation of the M word rather than % of market share.



    Well, monopoly isn't defined that way, or almost all companies would be defined as monopolies in certain product areas.



    Even MS, with Office having a bigger marketshare than all Windows sales put together, isn't defined a monopoly in office suites.
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