Katy Huberty and many others making estimates about iPhone sales, are doing it the way they traditionally have. They ask people which phone they will buy, what they are willing to spend, etc. And they base their estimates on the reports of these surveys.
These surveys, and the estimates in general, are making a huge mistake, in my opinion.
The iPhone is not "just a phone". It is essentially a hand-held device with the speed and power of a desktop computer. My (humble) prediction is that the iPhone will establish a market for software applications for hand-held devices as Windows did for the PC. With time people will buy an iPhone not because it is a phone, but because they want the music/ear-training program that works on the iPhone. Or a particular game that runs on the iPhone. Or the medical software that runs on the iPhone.
True, many such applications are available for other devices. But the App Store means people can buy applications quickly and easily. And, as a general rule, since they have been checked by Apple, they will work. (I said "generally". It would be unrealistic to expect that Apple can determine flaws in all 3rd party apps).
And for developers? All they have to do is WRITE the software. They don't have to maintain a web site and download the application etc. That all goes THROUGH the Apps store, for a very fair 1/3 of revenue.
Yes, because the economy is in a downswing it will take 2-3 years for the i-Phone to truly establish itself. But once it does, no one will catch it.
In summary, the iPhone is not just a phone. It is THE hand-held computing platform of the early 21st Century.
(Disclaimer- yes, I am an Apple stockholder. And I will soon purchase an iPhone. Bec. I am frustrated when I pay serious money for a medical textbook on my Palm Treo- which freezes 6 to 10 times a day-and the medical book I bought will not install on the Palm).
I am quite satisfied with Verizon's service. But the Palm Treo 700 is a disaster. I can't count the number of times it freezes for 45 seconds when I am trying to write an email or a to do. Or dial a call. I am just about finished reading David Pogue's Book, " iPhone The Missing Manual. 2nd edition". It is ASTOUNDING what the iPhone can do and I am off to buy one this month.
I will take slightly less good AT&T service, for a PDA/Phone that can DO SO MANY THINGS SO WELL!
And my informal survey of iPhone owners is NY has found that well over 90% of iphone owners are satisfied with the AT&T service (though I realize in more rural areas it may be more of a problem).
(and for those who wonder why Apple doesn't have voice guided GPS in the iPhone David Pogue explains in his book why Apple doesn't include voice guided GPS. But almost certainly a 3rd party developer will.
But I also love my carrier and hate AT&T's lousy customer service and expensive rates.
No way I'm switching. Hence no iPhone for me unless they release a model to TMobile. The G1 is a great phone too. I would go so far as to say that it's a better phone than the iPhone for pc users. But for mac users the iPhone is a better marriage.
Jeez, you should see the cost of data in Australia.
Unlimited doesn't exist even for Cable and ADSL, we have a thing called "shaping" where once you reach your monthly allotment your connection speed slows down my kid's have used our 35GB @ 1500k for this month so now I live with 64k until the 20th.
This also affects the wireless speed on my iPhone.
My local telephone exchange does not support ADSL 2, my location the edge of Sydney the largest city.
There is hardly any wireless available, anywhere.
We have had contracts here for many years, higher contract = better phone, it's simple really, as the iPhone is considered a smartphone it is in the same price bracket as other smartphones..
You get what you pay for.
btw using Youtube on a Blackberry Storm is NOT covered by the BIS or BER, so if you want to use it you HAVE to add a data plan or face exorbitant casual data rates, you can't even use wireless.
People in Australia have been hit with $3000+ bills because they didn't understand the concept of using data or the need for having a data plan, this applies to ALL smartphones.
You'll see how disappointing the phone is without data plan real quick if you could in fact get one. Imagine trying to use the GPS, turn by turn maps while driving without a data plan. Imagine trying to get an important email while in the car without a data plan. I could go on and on about these points and bottom line, it ain't gonna happen! Not without a data plan. Basically you'd have a phone with an iPod.
Hmm, I can do turn by turn on my smartphone without a dataplan, in fact a lot of people can, anyone that has the Nokia Maps app, or Tom Tom, or Wavefinder for their phone can pre-download the maps, data isn't needed.
Hmm, I can do turn by turn on my smartphone without a dataplan, in fact a lot of people can, anyone that has the Nokia Maps app, or Tom Tom, or Wavefinder for their phone can pre-download the maps, data isn't needed.
A subscription is needed for Nokia Maps in Australia it's $A100 a year.
many are buying the iphone instead of broadband and home computer+ cellphone, its a convergence item, just like people are moving away from landline phones to cell phones, do you want 1 item to do it all, then the iphone is that item, what others can be that inclusive?
so if you look at dropping your landline, internet expense etc, than the iphone saves you money that's why many are converging similar services with the iphone especially the lower income levels not typical of BB or nokia smartphone market.
Apart from the computer you download it to and install it from.
You also have to make sure you disable the "define access point" or set it to wireless when using Nokia Maps for the first time or you will face network charges, which is buried in the fine print of the agreement you accept in order to use it.
If you follow the instructions given in the box and set it up from the handset as advised in the free offer leaflet then you will get charged for data.
Apart from the computer you download it to and install it from.
We were talking about mobile data, but I will say it anyway. You do not need to use mobile data when using with Nokia maps, or the mobile phone version of Tomtom, or Wayfinder.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60
You also have to make sure you disable the "define access point" or set it to wireless when using Nokia Maps for the first time or you will face network charges, which is buried in the fine print of the agreement you accept in order to use it.
Well of course you would have to disable that, why don't you just use the option that comes up when you first use the application?
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60
If you follow the instructions given in the box and set it up from the handset as advised in the free offer leaflet then you will get charged for data.
I've seen quite a few people caught out by this.
If you read any of the Nokia documents that will state you are still liable for your data related costs. It is no different than roaming with your iPhone then complaining about the data roam charges.
Hmm, I can do turn by turn on my smartphone without a dataplan, in fact a lot of people can, anyone that has the Nokia Maps app, or Tom Tom, or Wavefinder for their phone can pre-download the maps, data isn't needed.
Thats nice, but it totally defeats the purpose of having the iPhone in the first place. The idea is that you don't have to carry around 18 different devices. And the GPS was just one example. I could give you other examples that would make the phone pointless without a dataplan.
Thats nice, but it totally defeats the purpose of having the iPhone in the first place. The idea is that you don't have to carry around 18 different devices. And the GPS was just one example. I could give you other examples that would make the phone pointless without a dataplan.
No it doesn't. You said imagine doing turn by turn navigation without a data plan. It is not hard to imagine, as every GPS device (except the iPhone) doesn't need data to do turn by turn navigation.
And why would you be carrying 18 devices? You can get a number of devices that include a phone, music player, and GPS (and unlike the iPhone will do navigation as well)
No it doesn't. You said imagine doing turn by turn navigation without a data plan. It is not hard to imagine, as every GPS device (except the iPhone) doesn't need data to do turn by turn navigation.
And why would you be carrying 18 devices? You can get a number of devices that include a phone, music player, and GPS (and unlike the iPhone will do navigation as well)
You might not NEED data to do turn-by-turn navigation --- but you want to if you also want to receive up-to-date traffic reports.
but the problem here is, why no unlock iphone here. i really dislike the idea of iphone with contract, despite the contract makes iphone easy to buy at reasonable price. if apple make iphone 3g out at unlock next year at affordable price as rumers, the market is his.
Comments
These surveys, and the estimates in general, are making a huge mistake, in my opinion.
The iPhone is not "just a phone". It is essentially a hand-held device with the speed and power of a desktop computer. My (humble) prediction is that the iPhone will establish a market for software applications for hand-held devices as Windows did for the PC. With time people will buy an iPhone not because it is a phone, but because they want the music/ear-training program that works on the iPhone. Or a particular game that runs on the iPhone. Or the medical software that runs on the iPhone.
True, many such applications are available for other devices. But the App Store means people can buy applications quickly and easily. And, as a general rule, since they have been checked by Apple, they will work. (I said "generally". It would be unrealistic to expect that Apple can determine flaws in all 3rd party apps).
And for developers? All they have to do is WRITE the software. They don't have to maintain a web site and download the application etc. That all goes THROUGH the Apps store, for a very fair 1/3 of revenue.
Yes, because the economy is in a downswing it will take 2-3 years for the i-Phone to truly establish itself. But once it does, no one will catch it.
In summary, the iPhone is not just a phone. It is THE hand-held computing platform of the early 21st Century.
(Disclaimer- yes, I am an Apple stockholder. And I will soon purchase an iPhone. Bec. I am frustrated when I pay serious money for a medical textbook on my Palm Treo- which freezes 6 to 10 times a day-and the medical book I bought will not install on the Palm).
I have Verizon and a Plam Treo- which freezes constantly and I hate.
I started using text messaging two months ago. I was shocked to get a bill- I thought my EXPENSIVE data plan would include it.
So now I pay for a Verizon text message plan.
Why do you say that only AT&T charges extra for text messages?
Verizon does as well!
I will take slightly less good AT&T service, for a PDA/Phone that can DO SO MANY THINGS SO WELL!
And my informal survey of iPhone owners is NY has found that well over 90% of iphone owners are satisfied with the AT&T service (though I realize in more rural areas it may be more of a problem).
(and for those who wonder why Apple doesn't have voice guided GPS in the iPhone David Pogue explains in his book why Apple doesn't include voice guided GPS. But almost certainly a 3rd party developer will.
But I also love my carrier and hate AT&T's lousy customer service and expensive rates.
No way I'm switching. Hence no iPhone for me unless they release a model to TMobile. The G1 is a great phone too. I would go so far as to say that it's a better phone than the iPhone for pc users. But for mac users the iPhone is a better marriage.
Unlimited doesn't exist even for Cable and ADSL, we have a thing called "shaping" where once you reach your monthly allotment your connection speed slows down my kid's have used our 35GB @ 1500k for this month so now I live with 64k until the 20th.
This also affects the wireless speed on my iPhone.
My local telephone exchange does not support ADSL 2, my location the edge of Sydney the largest city.
There is hardly any wireless available, anywhere.
We have had contracts here for many years, higher contract = better phone, it's simple really, as the iPhone is considered a smartphone it is in the same price bracket as other smartphones..
You get what you pay for.
btw using Youtube on a Blackberry Storm is NOT covered by the BIS or BER, so if you want to use it you HAVE to add a data plan or face exorbitant casual data rates, you can't even use wireless.
People in Australia have been hit with $3000+ bills because they didn't understand the concept of using data or the need for having a data plan, this applies to ALL smartphones.
You'll see how disappointing the phone is without data plan real quick if you could in fact get one. Imagine trying to use the GPS, turn by turn maps while driving without a data plan. Imagine trying to get an important email while in the car without a data plan. I could go on and on about these points and bottom line, it ain't gonna happen! Not without a data plan. Basically you'd have a phone with an iPod.
Hmm, I can do turn by turn on my smartphone without a dataplan, in fact a lot of people can, anyone that has the Nokia Maps app, or Tom Tom, or Wavefinder for their phone can pre-download the maps, data isn't needed.
Hmm, I can do turn by turn on my smartphone without a dataplan, in fact a lot of people can, anyone that has the Nokia Maps app, or Tom Tom, or Wavefinder for their phone can pre-download the maps, data isn't needed.
A subscription is needed for Nokia Maps in Australia it's $A100 a year.
A subscription is needed for Nokia Maps in Australia it's $A100 a year.
But you don't need data to use it
so if you look at dropping your landline, internet expense etc, than the iphone saves you money that's why many are converging similar services with the iphone especially the lower income levels not typical of BB or nokia smartphone market.
But you don't need data to use it
Apart from the computer you download it to and install it from.
You also have to make sure you disable the "define access point" or set it to wireless when using Nokia Maps for the first time or you will face network charges, which is buried in the fine print of the agreement you accept in order to use it.
If you follow the instructions given in the box and set it up from the handset as advised in the free offer leaflet then you will get charged for data.
I've seen quite a few people caught out by this.
Apart from the computer you download it to and install it from.
We were talking about mobile data, but I will say it anyway. You do not need to use mobile data when using with Nokia maps, or the mobile phone version of Tomtom, or Wayfinder.
You also have to make sure you disable the "define access point" or set it to wireless when using Nokia Maps for the first time or you will face network charges, which is buried in the fine print of the agreement you accept in order to use it.
Well of course you would have to disable that, why don't you just use the option that comes up when you first use the application?
If you follow the instructions given in the box and set it up from the handset as advised in the free offer leaflet then you will get charged for data.
I've seen quite a few people caught out by this.
If you read any of the Nokia documents that will state you are still liable for your data related costs. It is no different than roaming with your iPhone then complaining about the data roam charges.
Hmm, I can do turn by turn on my smartphone without a dataplan, in fact a lot of people can, anyone that has the Nokia Maps app, or Tom Tom, or Wavefinder for their phone can pre-download the maps, data isn't needed.
Thats nice, but it totally defeats the purpose of having the iPhone in the first place. The idea is that you don't have to carry around 18 different devices. And the GPS was just one example. I could give you other examples that would make the phone pointless without a dataplan.
Thats nice, but it totally defeats the purpose of having the iPhone in the first place. The idea is that you don't have to carry around 18 different devices. And the GPS was just one example. I could give you other examples that would make the phone pointless without a dataplan.
No it doesn't. You said imagine doing turn by turn navigation without a data plan. It is not hard to imagine, as every GPS device (except the iPhone) doesn't need data to do turn by turn navigation.
And why would you be carrying 18 devices? You can get a number of devices that include a phone, music player, and GPS (and unlike the iPhone will do navigation as well)
No it doesn't. You said imagine doing turn by turn navigation without a data plan. It is not hard to imagine, as every GPS device (except the iPhone) doesn't need data to do turn by turn navigation.
And why would you be carrying 18 devices? You can get a number of devices that include a phone, music player, and GPS (and unlike the iPhone will do navigation as well)
You might not NEED data to do turn-by-turn navigation --- but you want to if you also want to receive up-to-date traffic reports.
but the problem here is, why no unlock iphone here. i really dislike the idea of iphone with contract, despite the contract makes iphone easy to buy at reasonable price. if apple make iphone 3g out at unlock next year at affordable price as rumers, the market is his.