For some reason you want to endow these people with the ability to either foresee the future or accurately predict the future. I'm sorry to inform you they do not have these abilities.
They are more credible than you!
You're just an poster on a forum like me. When you win some awards or start your own website that's recognized for it's excellence in reporting on these issues I'll consider you on equal footing with the sources I've used.
Now unless you've got something real to add ( like valid support for your argument ) I'm outta here. Two of my favorite actors died today Ricardo Montalban and Patrick MacGoohan and Steve Jobs is taking medical leave which is not good news for Apple so I'm not in a very good mood.
The proof of history in this business model is the fact that music downloads began as unsupported file sharing. Has grown into a multibillion dollar profit center that is becoming more important than CD sales.
The proof is in the investment being spent on the growing number of downloading services from every major content distributor.
iTunes
Hulu.com
TV.com
ABC.com
Fox.com
NBC.com
YouTube.com
Blockbuster.com
Netflix.com
Joost.com
Amazon Unbox
iPlayer.com
Yes but we've already discussed rental vs. sales. It will probably replace rentals. Sales will take considerably longer. Like about 10 years.
Fact: We are extrapolating when in the future video downloads will be commonplace enough to be #1 video distributor in the world.
Therefore projecting what VOD titles will be available based on current studio statements and moves are in fact, germane.
Yes, we all live in Salem.
I've included links that explain how we're getting a lot more bandwidth in the near future. Bandwidth that exceeds the needs for low bitrate HD streams/downloads.
No, I'm comparing when devices hit mainstream acceptance.
There was a Blu-rav vs. HD-DVD thread in 2006. I couldn't find it but here's the first post in the 2007 thread:
You've offered no facts and only opinion of bloggers. Who may, or may not be in the know about some particular aspect they are pontificating on. Bill Hunt knows jack about networks.
What "facts" do you offer? Seriously? You state as "fact" that it is a hard requirement to be able to bring movies over to a friend's house. Mkay.
Win what? I keep saying, we'll see in a couple years and to a certain point I'm being rather conservative.
It really isn't that aggressive a prediction that a digital retailer of video will out do Wal-mart if they have a monopoly on digitial sales. It no more means that digital downloads has replaced DVD/BluRay than it means that mp3s has replaced CDs.
What it DOES mean is that folks with particular favorite, like Bill Hunt, are likely wrong about the adoption rate of technologies they don't favor as much as I'm sure there was some audiophile sagely pronouncing that digital music sucked in quality and took too long to download on 28.8K modems anyway.
Quote:
Yes, we all live in Salem.
If all you've got left is smart ass comments and no proof I think we're done. Using that logic : did all Blockbusters close?
Look this will happen. Just not as quick as you're thinking. Ok?
[QUOTE]For myself I have no vested interest in the box or packaging of the disc, only the disc itself, which is why I rent nearly everything. The only titles I own are those that were given to me, I purchased because they could not be rented or I wanted 24/7 access to them at a whim. Our family habits can require the ability to watch a movie in segments over several evenings if necessary and that is one feature none of the new kids provide unless you purchase the download. None offer a way to play a calibration disc, nor do they provide such content. How do any of us know if we are getting the real deal? Currently special features are not part of the services and while special features aren't my bag they may float your boat. What about portability? Finally there is the fear factor of what will happen when the box breaks, or far worse, the hard drive in the box fails. Did I just lose my library and monetary investment? Is there any way to archive my purchases? As a collector, the shiny disc has a 30 year lifespan and the volatility of hard drive storage has no comparison.
An independent study found HDTV owners familiar with Blu-ray favor the format over downloading and streaming by a margin of nearly 10-to-1, with about 70% of respondents citing the fact that there’s a physical disc to keep as a key factor in their decision to buy Blu-ray.
The study, conducted this fall by market research firm SmithGeiger on behalf of DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group, surveyed more than 1,100 HDTV owners in the United States and another 500 in Japan and 500 in the United Kingdom.
Maybe the people who did the study were all bloggers!
Who knows? Look how long it took the Roosevelt administration to lead the country out of the Great Depression and Hoover only had one term to ruin the economy, not two.
Bite, have you watched any good BD titles lately?
Well, I am more intrigued by this sort of thing had happened before and will probably happen again in the future.. I guess history is bound to repeat itself, sooner or later.
In regards to watching demo quality BD titles, I did get Iron Man on sales from amazon but is still in the wrapper. It will probably stay in the wrapper until I move into a new home.
Number 1 is right on the money ( but he's probably a blogger ).
Quote:
1. Digital downloads will not eliminate the need for discs anytime soon.
Let's address this first since this is the biggest factor that people cite when trumpeting Blu-ray's defeat. If you haven't noticed, here at CNET we spend a good amount of time covering new streaming video platforms and services and really enjoy testing these new products. Everything from Hulu to Netflix streaming video to Slingbox to Apple TV to Vudu all show promise. That said, all these products have some limiting factors, including lack of content selection, pricing hurdles, and most particularly, bandwidth issues, which affect video and audio quality.
Case in point: The other night I was running Netflix's video streaming service on my Xbox 360. I fired up the movie, The Adventures of Baron Von Munchausen on a large rear-projection TV. It looked like crap. How crappy? Well, bad enough for my wife to say, "Get that off the screen right now." (The hazard of watching virtually everything in HD is that everyone in your household over the age of 7 becomes a video snob).
Next, I tried The Wiggles to better results. The program had brighter scenes and less movement, so the picture wasn't quite as soft and pixelated. My 5-year-old could handle it just fine. However, I had to leave the room after 5 minutes in extreme pain. (It was due to the content, not video quality. Man, that's some bad music).
Now, I'm sure folks who've got Verizon's Fios installed in their homes are getting a much better picture when they stream their Netflix video. But I'm dealing with cable internet from Time Warner in Manhattan and while it's acceptable for streaming video onto a 22-inch computer monitor, the pipe really isn't fat enough for blowing things up too far beyond a 32-inch set without things getting pretty fuzzy. (Our video guru, David Katzmaier says he's happy with the bandwidth he's getting from Time Warner in Brooklyn, but he says he, too, runs into some pretty rough pictures, especially those that involve a lot of action sequences).
I can't see Time Warner and other cable Internet providers suddenly delivering more bandwidth anytime soon (if anything, my connection seems to have gotten worse in recent months). DSL is even worse in a lot of cases--unless you're willing to pay ridiculous rates for top-of-the-line bandwidth offerings, which are usually geared toward businesses not consumers. And there's also plenty of talk about ISPs throttling back on bandwidth to police illegal downloads of music and yes, movie and TV shows.
The incoming Obama administration is reportedly going to be offering incentives to providers for building out broadband offerings and increasing bandwidth (eventually, anyway). Whether that has any impact or not, I still think we're a good 3-5 years away before the pipes really get fat enough for many of these IPTV/ streaming video services to reach their full potential and move from niche to mainstream status. In that time prices for both Blu-ray players and discs will look a lot like what you see today on their DVD brethren (see reasons #4 and #5).
Quote:
Executive Editor David Carnoy has been covering electronics for CNET since 2000, arriving at the company just as "that whole Internet bust thing" happened. Early on, he launched CNET's cell phone coverage, earning him the nickname "Wireless Dave," then moved on to bigger and broader things. Hunkered down in New York City, he oversees CNET's Home and Hardware reviews, which includes all things related to home theater, PC, and digital imaging. Fully Equipped covers the gamut of gadgets and gizmos and, to keep things lively, Carnoy likes to alternate between writing useful, advice-oriented pieces or thought-provoking columns with inflammatory headlines designed to elicit commentary from readers. Fully Equipped is the longest continuously running column on CNET.com.
Opinion: "These activities will require a download speed of roughly 11.25Mbps and an upload of 5Mbps, which still isn't common in many countries today."
Fact: I can buy FiOS at 20/5 Mbps today for $54.99/mo.
Fact: I can buy Comcast at 20/5 Mbps today for $52.95/mo.
I've already shown that MSOs and RBOCs are expanding their coverage and broadband already hits a large percentage of US households.
So the fact is that many large metro areas already have 11.25Mbps service available.
"In an effort to keep pace with rival Netflix, Blockbuster has announced a partnership to offer instant access to its video library through various home and portable devices.
The movie rental company has partnered with Sonic Solutions to offer more than 10,000 movies for rent and sale to a variety of PCs, cell phones, portable media players, Internet-connected televisions, and Blu-ray disc players. The collection of offerings will be a combination of titles from Blockbuster and CinemaNow, a movie downloading service that Sonic recently purchased. "
See...one is opinion, the other fact. BlockBuster is moving further into video downloading.
For myself I have no vested interest in the box or packaging of the disc, only the disc itself, which is why I rent nearly everything. The only titles I own are those that were given to me, I purchased because they could not be rented or I wanted 24/7 access to them at a whim. Our family habits can require the ability to watch a movie in segments over several evenings if necessary and that is one feature none of the new kids provide unless you purchase the download. None offer a way to play a calibration disc, nor do they provide such content. How do any of us know if we are getting the real deal? Currently special features are not part of the services and while special features aren't my bag they may float your boat. What about portability? Finally there is the fear factor of what will happen when the box breaks, or far worse, the hard drive in the box fails. Did I just lose my library and monetary investment? Is there any way to archive my purchases? As a collector, the shiny disc has a 30 year lifespan and the volatility of hard drive storage has no comparison.
The guy as a videophile.
First, his assumptions are incorrect. Studios are not trying to deliver "the HD Blu-ray experience in your home without the Blu-ray carrier, the disc.". They don't care. They want to deliver good enough quality to the most folks to make the most money.
Second, the number of folks on THIS tech oriented forum that uses a calibration disc approaches zero as a percentage of readers. It isn't zero because I've used a calibration disc in the past. A lot of his objections are for videophiles. There are damn few of them.
Maybe the people who did the study were all bloggers!
"The study, conducted this fall by market research firm SmithGeiger on behalf of DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group, surveyed more than 1,100 HDTV owners in the United States and another 500 in Japan and 500 in the United Kingdom."
Who is the DEG?
"When DVD-Video launched in early 1997, the leading consumer electronics manufacturers, major movie studios and music companies came together to form the DVD Video Group ? a nonprofit trade consortium dedicated to promoting DVD-Video.
...
In January 2000, the group re-chartered as the DVD Entertainment Group to incorporate the new DVD-Audio format.
...
Re-chartered as DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group, the trade association's partnership between hardware and software manufacturers comes together to ensure that the DEG obtains the input necessary to accurately represent all aspects of the home entertainment industry."
Mkay...nice unbiased study commissioned by marketing arm of disc makers. Can you also find us a study that says music downloading is unpopular in comparison to CDs commissioned by RIAA?
Number 1 is right on the money ( but he's probably a blogger ).
Well...okay but he directly disagrees with your position and favors mine:
"I still think we're a good 3-5 years away before the pipes really get fat enough for many of these IPTV/ streaming video services to reach their full potential and move from niche to mainstream status."
Three years is what pray tell? Xmas 2011? Early 2012? Oh my, where have I heard that date before?
3-5 is a far cry from 10 years...even at the high end. If it takes until Xmas 2013 it's still a lot sooner than a decade away.
Why don't you email him and ask him if he thinks it wont be until 2019 until video downloading is mainstream? david.carnoy@cnet.com
If you have unlimited access to movies and entire seasons of television shows, the freedom to watch them anytime you want as many times you want. Their isn't much need for a rental or sales business model anymore.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac
Yes but we've already discussed rental vs. sales. It will probably replace rentals. Sales will take considerably longer. Like about 10 years.
I read the entire list. Number 1 basically says downloads won't replace physical disc today. Which we all agree with.
The only quarrel I would have with the author is using Time Warner as his example for internet speeds. Time Warner is about the worst nation wide ISP. They aren't at all in the race for fastest ISP speeds with the likes of Verizon or Comcast.
The other 8 reasons mostly all say either Blu-ray is too good to fail or Sony won't let Blu-ray fail. Neither of these are really reasons why Blu-ray has to succeed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac
[url]
Number 1 is right on the money ( but he's probably a blogger ).
If someone asked me what I would prefer for my HDTV I would say Blu-ray also. Its the best quality. That simple common sense.
Quote:
An independent study found HDTV owners familiar with Blu-ray favor the format over downloading and streaming by a margin of nearly 10-to-1, with about 70% of respondents citing the fact that there’s a physical disc to keep as a key factor in their decision to buy Blu-ray.
I read the entire list. Number 1 basically says downloads won't replace physical disc today. Which we all agree with.
The only quarrel I would have with the author is using Time Warner as his example for internet speeds. Time Warner is about the worst nation wide ISP. They aren't at all in the race for fastest ISP speeds with the likes of Verizon or Comcast.
The other 8 reasons mostly all say either Blu-ray is too good to fail or Sony won't let Blu-ray fail. Neither of these are really reasons why Blu-ray has to succeed.
Quote:
Number 1 basically says downloads won't replace physical disc today.
You do know that I'm saying that also? I just think in 5 years alot of stuff will be ironed out except movie studios letting go of their paranoia. That will probably take a few more years to get them to let you buy the movie online and do with it what you would normally do with physical media. They really quite stubborn ( even when it's in their own best interest ).
Well...okay but he directly disagrees with your position and favors mine:
"I still think we're a good 3-5 years away before the pipes really get fat enough for many of these IPTV/ streaming video services to reach their full potential and move from niche to mainstream status."
Three years is what pray tell? Xmas 2011? Early 2012? Oh my, where have I heard that date before?
3-5 is a far cry from 10 years...even at the high end. If it takes until Xmas 2013 it's still a lot sooner than a decade away.
Why don't you email him and ask him if he thinks it wont be until 2019 until video downloading is mainstream? david.carnoy@cnet.com
No-one is saying that people with 50"+ screens won't absolutely love Blu-Ray.
Or that CNET editors won't love new, expensive tech gear.
What is being said is that in these economic conditions, a lot of people won't be upgrading to such gear anytime soon.
Blu-Ray will indeed "succeed" DVD, but it will never be the stunning format success the former was/is.
DVDs absolutely vanquished VHS cassettes. BR and DVD will coexist until direct downloads do take hold.
Sorry Frank but I already know 5 people with screens that big and we're not rich or even close to it. One of my friends bought a LCD HDTV 47" for $1100.00! They aren't that much any more. There was a big suge in sales during the summer olympics.
It was great when he got it. We carried his old 36 " Toshiba ( CRT ) out of the living room ( that just about killed my hands it was so heavy ) and carried the new 47" LG LCD while it was still in the box. I almost could have done it with one hand!
Only $300.00 more than his old set cost several years ago!
The movie/television studios are embracing alternative media in a way that the music industry took much longer to do. So I don't think they will be all that much of a problem.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac
You do know that I'm saying that also? I just think in 5 years alot of stuff will be ironed out except movie studios letting go of their paranoia. That will probably take a few more years to get them to let you buy the movie online and do with it what you would normally do with physical media. They really quite stubborn ( even when it's in their own best interest ).
The movie/television studios are embracing alternative media in a way that the music industry took much longer to do. So I don't think they will be all that much of a problem.
Well that hasn't been their pattern. And can site several historical items.
But here's something more recent and a good example.
Expecting them to release their grip totally and treat online downloads the same way they do physical media will probably take awhile. Now I've heard some say here they'll be forced to change. How? They own the stuff. You are at their whim. If they were moving faster than the RIAA you would be able to burn video from iTunes the way you do music.
And them there's the people who make movies. Do you really think they don't want to protect their work. And yes TenoBell. Some people still like to own what they buy ( and they're not all 50 year olds ). That's just not going to change for a long time. So when they treat downloads like physical media they have to create an easy way to transfer what you bought from machine to machine. From your computer to your big screen tv in the living room or allow you to loan it to a friend without worrying about piracy in the process.
This kind of flexability is important and will remain important. Just because you don't do it doesn't mean everybody is that way. But this is issue that will allow people to let go of the notion of Physical stuff. If you don't recognize that you're only fooling yourself.
Comments
For some reason you want to endow these people with the ability to either foresee the future or accurately predict the future. I'm sorry to inform you they do not have these abilities.
They are more credible than you!
You're just an poster on a forum like me. When you win some awards or start your own website that's recognized for it's excellence in reporting on these issues I'll consider you on equal footing with the sources I've used.
Now unless you've got something real to add ( like valid support for your argument ) I'm outta here. Two of my favorite actors died today Ricardo Montalban and Patrick MacGoohan and Steve Jobs is taking medical leave which is not good news for Apple so I'm not in a very good mood.
The proof of history in this business model is the fact that music downloads began as unsupported file sharing. Has grown into a multibillion dollar profit center that is becoming more important than CD sales.
The proof is in the investment being spent on the growing number of downloading services from every major content distributor.
iTunes
Hulu.com
TV.com
ABC.com
Fox.com
NBC.com
YouTube.com
Blockbuster.com
Netflix.com
Joost.com
Amazon Unbox
iPlayer.com
Yes but we've already discussed rental vs. sales. It will probably replace rentals. Sales will take considerably longer. Like about 10 years.
Fact: We are extrapolating when in the future video downloads will be commonplace enough to be #1 video distributor in the world.
Therefore projecting what VOD titles will be available based on current studio statements and moves are in fact, germane.
Yes, we all live in Salem.
I've included links that explain how we're getting a lot more bandwidth in the near future. Bandwidth that exceeds the needs for low bitrate HD streams/downloads.
No, I'm comparing when devices hit mainstream acceptance.
There was a Blu-rav vs. HD-DVD thread in 2006. I couldn't find it but here's the first post in the 2007 thread:
http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...01&postcount=1
You've offered no facts and only opinion of bloggers. Who may, or may not be in the know about some particular aspect they are pontificating on. Bill Hunt knows jack about networks.
What "facts" do you offer? Seriously? You state as "fact" that it is a hard requirement to be able to bring movies over to a friend's house. Mkay.
Win what? I keep saying, we'll see in a couple years and to a certain point I'm being rather conservative.
It really isn't that aggressive a prediction that a digital retailer of video will out do Wal-mart if they have a monopoly on digitial sales. It no more means that digital downloads has replaced DVD/BluRay than it means that mp3s has replaced CDs.
What it DOES mean is that folks with particular favorite, like Bill Hunt, are likely wrong about the adoption rate of technologies they don't favor as much as I'm sure there was some audiophile sagely pronouncing that digital music sucked in quality and took too long to download on 28.8K modems anyway.
Yes, we all live in Salem.
If all you've got left is smart ass comments and no proof I think we're done. Using that logic : did all Blockbusters close?
Look this will happen. Just not as quick as you're thinking. Ok?
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post...e-screwed.html
http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...-wasnt-blu-ray
Here's what's happening with BlockBuster
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post...-be-saved.html
Another opinion for you to diss
http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/articles...ce_blu-ray.php
[QUOTE]For myself I have no vested interest in the box or packaging of the disc, only the disc itself, which is why I rent nearly everything. The only titles I own are those that were given to me, I purchased because they could not be rented or I wanted 24/7 access to them at a whim. Our family habits can require the ability to watch a movie in segments over several evenings if necessary and that is one feature none of the new kids provide unless you purchase the download. None offer a way to play a calibration disc, nor do they provide such content. How do any of us know if we are getting the real deal? Currently special features are not part of the services and while special features aren't my bag they may float your boat. What about portability? Finally there is the fear factor of what will happen when the box breaks, or far worse, the hard drive in the box fails. Did I just lose my library and monetary investment? Is there any way to archive my purchases? As a collector, the shiny disc has a 30 year lifespan and the volatility of hard drive storage has no comparison.
And then of course there's this :
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/hig...nloading-13900
An independent study found HDTV owners familiar with Blu-ray favor the format over downloading and streaming by a margin of nearly 10-to-1, with about 70% of respondents citing the fact that there’s a physical disc to keep as a key factor in their decision to buy Blu-ray.
The study, conducted this fall by market research firm SmithGeiger on behalf of DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group, surveyed more than 1,100 HDTV owners in the United States and another 500 in Japan and 500 in the United Kingdom.
Maybe the people who did the study were all bloggers!
Who knows? Look how long it took the Roosevelt administration to lead the country out of the Great Depression and Hoover only had one term to ruin the economy, not two.
Bite, have you watched any good BD titles lately?
Well, I am more intrigued by this sort of thing had happened before and will probably happen again in the future.. I guess history is bound to repeat itself, sooner or later.
In regards to watching demo quality BD titles, I did get Iron Man on sales from amazon but is still in the wrapper. It will probably stay in the wrapper until I move into a new home.
9 reasons why Blu-ray will succeed
Number 1 is right on the money ( but he's probably a blogger ).
1. Digital downloads will not eliminate the need for discs anytime soon.
Let's address this first since this is the biggest factor that people cite when trumpeting Blu-ray's defeat. If you haven't noticed, here at CNET we spend a good amount of time covering new streaming video platforms and services and really enjoy testing these new products. Everything from Hulu to Netflix streaming video to Slingbox to Apple TV to Vudu all show promise. That said, all these products have some limiting factors, including lack of content selection, pricing hurdles, and most particularly, bandwidth issues, which affect video and audio quality.
Case in point: The other night I was running Netflix's video streaming service on my Xbox 360. I fired up the movie, The Adventures of Baron Von Munchausen on a large rear-projection TV. It looked like crap. How crappy? Well, bad enough for my wife to say, "Get that off the screen right now." (The hazard of watching virtually everything in HD is that everyone in your household over the age of 7 becomes a video snob).
Next, I tried The Wiggles to better results. The program had brighter scenes and less movement, so the picture wasn't quite as soft and pixelated. My 5-year-old could handle it just fine. However, I had to leave the room after 5 minutes in extreme pain. (It was due to the content, not video quality. Man, that's some bad music).
Now, I'm sure folks who've got Verizon's Fios installed in their homes are getting a much better picture when they stream their Netflix video. But I'm dealing with cable internet from Time Warner in Manhattan and while it's acceptable for streaming video onto a 22-inch computer monitor, the pipe really isn't fat enough for blowing things up too far beyond a 32-inch set without things getting pretty fuzzy. (Our video guru, David Katzmaier says he's happy with the bandwidth he's getting from Time Warner in Brooklyn, but he says he, too, runs into some pretty rough pictures, especially those that involve a lot of action sequences).
I can't see Time Warner and other cable Internet providers suddenly delivering more bandwidth anytime soon (if anything, my connection seems to have gotten worse in recent months). DSL is even worse in a lot of cases--unless you're willing to pay ridiculous rates for top-of-the-line bandwidth offerings, which are usually geared toward businesses not consumers. And there's also plenty of talk about ISPs throttling back on bandwidth to police illegal downloads of music and yes, movie and TV shows.
The incoming Obama administration is reportedly going to be offering incentives to providers for building out broadband offerings and increasing bandwidth (eventually, anyway). Whether that has any impact or not, I still think we're a good 3-5 years away before the pipes really get fat enough for many of these IPTV/ streaming video services to reach their full potential and move from niche to mainstream status. In that time prices for both Blu-ray players and discs will look a lot like what you see today on their DVD brethren (see reasons #4 and #5).
Executive Editor David Carnoy has been covering electronics for CNET since 2000, arriving at the company just as "that whole Internet bust thing" happened. Early on, he launched CNET's cell phone coverage, earning him the nickname "Wireless Dave," then moved on to bigger and broader things. Hunkered down in New York City, he oversees CNET's Home and Hardware reviews, which includes all things related to home theater, PC, and digital imaging. Fully Equipped covers the gamut of gadgets and gizmos and, to keep things lively, Carnoy likes to alternate between writing useful, advice-oriented pieces or thought-provoking columns with inflammatory headlines designed to elicit commentary from readers. Fully Equipped is the longest continuously running column on CNET.com.
No-one is saying that people with 50"+ screens won't absolutely love Blu-Ray.
Or that CNET editors won't love new, expensive tech gear.
What is being said is that in these economic conditions, a lot of people won't be upgrading to such gear anytime soon.
Blu-Ray will indeed "succeed" DVD, but it will never be the stunning format success the former was/is.
DVDs absolutely vanquished VHS cassettes. BR and DVD will coexist until direct downloads do take hold.
Another fruitless exercise in missing the point.
No-one is saying that people with 50"+ screens won't absolutely love Blu-Ray.
Or that CNET editors won't love new, expensive tech gear.
What is being said is that in these economic conditions, a lot of people won't be upgrading to such gear anytime soon.
Blu-Ray will indeed "succeed" DVD, but it will never be the stunning format success the former was/is.
DVDs absolutely vanquished VHS cassettes. BR and DVD will coexist until direct downloads do take hold.
Oh but direct downloads DO exist:
piratebay.org
mininova.org
And oh boy have they taken hold...
If all you've got left is smart ass comments and no proof I think we're done. Using that logic : did all Blockbusters close?
Look this will happen. Just not as quick as you're thinking. Ok?
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post...e-screwed.html
Opinion: "These activities will require a download speed of roughly 11.25Mbps and an upload of 5Mbps, which still isn't common in many countries today."
Fact: I can buy FiOS at 20/5 Mbps today for $54.99/mo.
Fact: I can buy Comcast at 20/5 Mbps today for $52.95/mo.
I've already shown that MSOs and RBOCs are expanding their coverage and broadband already hits a large percentage of US households.
So the fact is that many large metro areas already have 11.25Mbps service available.
http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...-wasnt-blu-ray
All this says is that Apple didn't release Blu-Ray. When it does, this thread might get moved to Current Hardware.
Here's what's happening with BlockBuster
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post...-be-saved.html
No, that's not what is happening with BlockBuster. That's an opinion piece on how the author thinks Blockbuster should save itself.
THIS is what's happening with BlockBuster:
Blockbuster in video download pact
"In an effort to keep pace with rival Netflix, Blockbuster has announced a partnership to offer instant access to its video library through various home and portable devices.
The movie rental company has partnered with Sonic Solutions to offer more than 10,000 movies for rent and sale to a variety of PCs, cell phones, portable media players, Internet-connected televisions, and Blu-ray disc players. The collection of offerings will be a combination of titles from Blockbuster and CinemaNow, a movie downloading service that Sonic recently purchased. "
See...one is opinion, the other fact. BlockBuster is moving further into video downloading.
Another opinion for you to diss
http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/articles...ce_blu-ray.php
For myself I have no vested interest in the box or packaging of the disc, only the disc itself, which is why I rent nearly everything. The only titles I own are those that were given to me, I purchased because they could not be rented or I wanted 24/7 access to them at a whim. Our family habits can require the ability to watch a movie in segments over several evenings if necessary and that is one feature none of the new kids provide unless you purchase the download. None offer a way to play a calibration disc, nor do they provide such content. How do any of us know if we are getting the real deal? Currently special features are not part of the services and while special features aren't my bag they may float your boat. What about portability? Finally there is the fear factor of what will happen when the box breaks, or far worse, the hard drive in the box fails. Did I just lose my library and monetary investment? Is there any way to archive my purchases? As a collector, the shiny disc has a 30 year lifespan and the volatility of hard drive storage has no comparison.
The guy as a videophile.
First, his assumptions are incorrect. Studios are not trying to deliver "the HD Blu-ray experience in your home without the Blu-ray carrier, the disc.". They don't care. They want to deliver good enough quality to the most folks to make the most money.
Second, the number of folks on THIS tech oriented forum that uses a calibration disc approaches zero as a percentage of readers. It isn't zero because I've used a calibration disc in the past. A lot of his objections are for videophiles. There are damn few of them.
And then of course there's this :
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/hig...nloading-13900
Maybe the people who did the study were all bloggers!
"The study, conducted this fall by market research firm SmithGeiger on behalf of DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group, surveyed more than 1,100 HDTV owners in the United States and another 500 in Japan and 500 in the United Kingdom."
Who is the DEG?
"When DVD-Video launched in early 1997, the leading consumer electronics manufacturers, major movie studios and music companies came together to form the DVD Video Group ? a nonprofit trade consortium dedicated to promoting DVD-Video.
...
In January 2000, the group re-chartered as the DVD Entertainment Group to incorporate the new DVD-Audio format.
...
Re-chartered as DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group, the trade association's partnership between hardware and software manufacturers comes together to ensure that the DEG obtains the input necessary to accurately represent all aspects of the home entertainment industry."
Mkay...nice unbiased study commissioned by marketing arm of disc makers. Can you also find us a study that says music downloading is unpopular in comparison to CDs commissioned by RIAA?
http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-18438_7...CarouselArea.1
Number 1 is right on the money ( but he's probably a blogger ).
Well...okay but he directly disagrees with your position and favors mine:
"I still think we're a good 3-5 years away before the pipes really get fat enough for many of these IPTV/ streaming video services to reach their full potential and move from niche to mainstream status."
Three years is what pray tell? Xmas 2011? Early 2012? Oh my, where have I heard that date before?
3-5 is a far cry from 10 years...even at the high end. If it takes until Xmas 2013 it's still a lot sooner than a decade away.
Why don't you email him and ask him if he thinks it wont be until 2019 until video downloading is mainstream? david.carnoy@cnet.com
Oh but direct downloads DO exist:
piratebay.org
mininova.org
And oh boy have they taken hold...
I've said that many times before. But Jimmac apparently thinks the movie market is driven by 50 year olds.
Yes but we've already discussed rental vs. sales. It will probably replace rentals. Sales will take considerably longer. Like about 10 years.
The only quarrel I would have with the author is using Time Warner as his example for internet speeds. Time Warner is about the worst nation wide ISP. They aren't at all in the race for fastest ISP speeds with the likes of Verizon or Comcast.
The other 8 reasons mostly all say either Blu-ray is too good to fail or Sony won't let Blu-ray fail. Neither of these are really reasons why Blu-ray has to succeed.
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Number 1 is right on the money ( but he's probably a blogger ).
An independent study found HDTV owners familiar with Blu-ray favor the format over downloading and streaming by a margin of nearly 10-to-1, with about 70% of respondents citing the fact that there’s a physical disc to keep as a key factor in their decision to buy Blu-ray.
I read the entire list. Number 1 basically says downloads won't replace physical disc today. Which we all agree with.
The only quarrel I would have with the author is using Time Warner as his example for internet speeds. Time Warner is about the worst nation wide ISP. They aren't at all in the race for fastest ISP speeds with the likes of Verizon or Comcast.
The other 8 reasons mostly all say either Blu-ray is too good to fail or Sony won't let Blu-ray fail. Neither of these are really reasons why Blu-ray has to succeed.
Number 1 basically says downloads won't replace physical disc today.
You do know that I'm saying that also? I just think in 5 years alot of stuff will be ironed out except movie studios letting go of their paranoia. That will probably take a few more years to get them to let you buy the movie online and do with it what you would normally do with physical media. They really quite stubborn ( even when it's in their own best interest ).
I've said that many times before. But Jimmac apparently thinks the movie market is driven by 50 year olds.
Yes but we have the money sonny!
Well...okay but he directly disagrees with your position and favors mine:
"I still think we're a good 3-5 years away before the pipes really get fat enough for many of these IPTV/ streaming video services to reach their full potential and move from niche to mainstream status."
Three years is what pray tell? Xmas 2011? Early 2012? Oh my, where have I heard that date before?
3-5 is a far cry from 10 years...even at the high end. If it takes until Xmas 2013 it's still a lot sooner than a decade away.
Why don't you email him and ask him if he thinks it wont be until 2019 until video downloading is mainstream? david.carnoy@cnet.com
Remember bandwidth isn't the only issue.
Another fruitless exercise in missing the point.
No-one is saying that people with 50"+ screens won't absolutely love Blu-Ray.
Or that CNET editors won't love new, expensive tech gear.
What is being said is that in these economic conditions, a lot of people won't be upgrading to such gear anytime soon.
Blu-Ray will indeed "succeed" DVD, but it will never be the stunning format success the former was/is.
DVDs absolutely vanquished VHS cassettes. BR and DVD will coexist until direct downloads do take hold.
Sorry Frank but I already know 5 people with screens that big and we're not rich or even close to it. One of my friends bought a LCD HDTV 47" for $1100.00! They aren't that much any more. There was a big suge in sales during the summer olympics.
It was great when he got it. We carried his old 36 " Toshiba ( CRT ) out of the living room ( that just about killed my hands it was so heavy ) and carried the new 47" LG LCD while it was still in the box. I almost could have done it with one hand!
Only $300.00 more than his old set cost several years ago!
You do know that I'm saying that also? I just think in 5 years alot of stuff will be ironed out except movie studios letting go of their paranoia. That will probably take a few more years to get them to let you buy the movie online and do with it what you would normally do with physical media. They really quite stubborn ( even when it's in their own best interest ).
The movie/television studios are embracing alternative media in a way that the music industry took much longer to do. So I don't think they will be all that much of a problem.
Well that hasn't been their pattern. And can site several historical items.
But here's something more recent and a good example.
http://www.webtvwire.com/one-stop-sh...etflix-itunes/
Expecting them to release their grip totally and treat online downloads the same way they do physical media will probably take awhile. Now I've heard some say here they'll be forced to change. How? They own the stuff. You are at their whim. If they were moving faster than the RIAA you would be able to burn video from iTunes the way you do music.
And them there's the people who make movies. Do you really think they don't want to protect their work. And yes TenoBell. Some people still like to own what they buy ( and they're not all 50 year olds ). That's just not going to change for a long time. So when they treat downloads like physical media they have to create an easy way to transfer what you bought from machine to machine. From your computer to your big screen tv in the living room or allow you to loan it to a friend without worrying about piracy in the process.
This kind of flexability is important and will remain important. Just because you don't do it doesn't mean everybody is that way. But this is issue that will allow people to let go of the notion of Physical stuff. If you don't recognize that you're only fooling yourself.
Been over this. Look at the numbers.
I have.
Recording companies, Movie Studios, Game Makers all want to go to download because they...
1.. Can cut consumer prices
2.. Can get impulse purchases
3.. Get more revenue per purchase
4.. Cut out the middle man
C.