January figures suggests a recession-resistant Q2 for Apple

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
Despite the red ink flowing from retailers and PC makers, Apple is expected to ride out its second fiscal quarter ending in March with respectable numbers nearly in line with its performance last year.



Mac sales



Citing its own market research and numbers from NPD, research analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray has released a report estimating Mac shipments at 2 to 2.2 million units for the three-month period ending March, in line with the Street consensus of 2.2 million units.



That's -6% growth compared to the nearly 2.3 million Macs Apple sold in its year-ago quarter. Munster also notes that last year, Apple had just launched the MacBook Air; this year, there were no mainstream Macworld Expo hardware introductions to boost sales in the quarter.



Despite the lack of growth in Mac sales over last year, the report stated "We believe this data will be perceived as a neutral or a slight positive given the uncertainty surrounding the Mar-08 quarter."



Desktop Mac sales are down the most over last year, reflecting warnings Apple presented in its latest investor conference call citing education and government markets hit hardest by recession-related cuts. Piper Jaffray's models indicate that sales of MacBook Pros actually grew over last year however, taking some of the bite out of those lost sales.



In the previous quarter ended December, Apple reported Mac sales growth of 9%, in contrast to the shrinking overall market for generic PCs as reported by often-cited market research firm IDC. With Apple expected to post anywhere from -13% to -4% growth for this quarter over a year ago, results for the generic PC market are likely to be significantly worse. Piper Jaffray's figures suggest -2% growth in the summer quarter for Apple, flat sales in the fall, and a return to unit growth by the winter.



iPod, iPhone and Apple TV sales



The report also targeted iPod sales of 9 to 10 million units; Street consensus is 9.5 million. This reflects growth of -15% to -6% over last year's sales of 10.6 million iPods.



The group is also modeling for iPod average selling prices (ASP) to fall slightly, reversing an upward trend in ASPs as users moved toward more expensive iPod models such as the high end iPod touch during the recent holiday shopping season. Apple does not break down iPod sales reports by model.



Munster said it was difficult to predict ASPs from NPD's data, but that "this data suggests that the mix of iPod touches may exceed our expectations in the Mar quarter." One factor pushing sales of the iPod touch is the availability of apps from the iPhone App Store. Apple has been focusing on gaming for the touch in its iPod marking.



iPhone sales are forecast to reach 4.4 million, representing significant growth over last year's first quarter sales of 1.7 million and up slightly over the winter quarter. Apple TV is similarly expected to again sell more than three times its sales in the year ago quarter as it did in the winter quarter, although Apple continues to watch the market as a "hobby" and still does not view the segment as a primary business.



Combined, Apple's total Q2 sales are expected to achieve 4.8% year over year growth, down tremendously from the 42% growth it experienced last year but above the level of growth anticipated for the battered PC and consumer electronics industry.

«13

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 42
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,382member
    I wish the never ending good news about Apple would be reflected in AAPL stock value!
  • Reply 2 of 42
    shadowshadow Posts: 373member
    Does not look like entirely good news to me. Keep your fingers crossed that there will be no more bad news.



    I hope that the current situation will bring Apple closer to the ground in some respects, e.g iPhone worldwide distribution model.
  • Reply 3 of 42
    hattighattig Posts: 858member
    If Apple update their desktop machines more than once a decade they might sell more.



    I thought one of the advantages of moving to Intel would be more regular specification bumps between the major annual upgrades.
  • Reply 4 of 42
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,382member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Hattig View Post


    If Apple update their desktop machines more than once a decade they might sell more.



    I thought one of the advantages of moving to Intel would be more regular specification bumps between the major annual upgrades.



    I used to say that till I shelled out $10,000 for a late model (as they called it) Mac Pro 8 core / dual 30 ACD and tons of RAM and 4 1 TB internal drives and GT 8800 cards etc ... now for some strange reason I have this feeling I don't want to see a new Mac Pro just yet ... strange isn't it?
  • Reply 5 of 42
    I've been to the local mall twice since Valentine's Day. The mall has been busy since it's school vacation week here. However, the Apple store has been absolutely crammed full of people. There are as many people in there as during the Christmas rush.



    I didn't stick around long enough to determine if they were buying. However, I did note that the MacBooks seemed to be the most popular item by far.



    The second most popular section of the store was the accessories section. This jives with the sentiment that people are spending less.



    The good news here is that the Apple brand is still strong and the Apple stores are doing their part to build awareness.
  • Reply 6 of 42
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:

    Apple TV is similarly expected to again sell more than three times its sales in the year ago quarter as it did in the winter quarter, although Apple continues to watch the market as a "hobby" and still does not view the segment as a primary business.



    Again this ridiculous statment. What does it mean? :

    1.) Was it selling so poorly last year? Or is it a big hit? Or is it still a flop? It's never advertised in print or TV anymore. No advertising usually means they've given up.

    2.) Three times what? Three times nothing is nothing.

    3.) "Hobby"?? Read failure. Is it considered a "hobby' because it brings entertainment to your TV or because it's a flop? Why is it even sold if they don't take it seriously. Was the iPod ever considered a "hobby"? For years it was basically a music device but was a phenomenal success and never once mentioned as a "hobby".



    What are the figures? Without them those "statistics" are totally misleading and bogus.
  • Reply 7 of 42
    satchmosatchmo Posts: 2,699member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    Again this ridiculous statment. What does it mean? :

    1.) Was it selling so poorly last year? Or is it a big hit? Or is it still a flop? It's never advertised in print or TV anymore. No advertising usually means they've given up.

    2.) Three times what? Three times nothing is nothing.

    3.) "Hobby"?? Why is it even sold if they don't take it seriously.



    What are the figures? Without them those "statistics" are totally misleading and bogus.



    It's simply filler to make the article actually sound and seem relevant.
  • Reply 8 of 42
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by satchmo View Post


    It's simply filler to make the article actually sound and seem relevant.



    LOL
  • Reply 9 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by satchmo View Post


    It's simply filler to make the article actually sound and seem relevant.



    Or you could take the alternative view which is that teckstud, who basically criticises every single article and every single post in much the same way no matter what the content, ...



    is similarly just filling the air with stuff to make hiself sound relevant.
  • Reply 10 of 42
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,382member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2 View Post


    Or you could take the alternative view which is that teckstud, who basically criticises every single article and every single post in much the same way no matter what the content, ...



    is similarly just filling the air with stuff to make hiself sound relevant.



    Or he is salaried to do this and perhaps sitting at a desk in Redmond
  • Reply 11 of 42
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2 View Post


    Or you could take the alternative view which is that teckstud, who basically criticises every single article and every single post in much the same way no matter what the content, ...



    is similarly just filling the air with stuff to make hiself sound relevant.



    And what did you just post? Nothing relating to the article except a lame personal attack. How pathetic.
  • Reply 12 of 42
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    Or he is salaried to do this and perhaps sitting at a desk in Redmond



    Oh no- I'm under attack by the Kool-aid brigade. Help me! Help me!! I'm afraid!! NOooooooooo!!!
  • Reply 13 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Hattig View Post


    If Apple update their desktop machines more than once a decade they might sell more.



    I thought one of the advantages of moving to Intel would be more regular specification bumps between the major annual upgrades.



    No. Moving to Intel wouldn't affect upgrades, and besides, Apple has always wanted to go to an annual schedule. Besides there is nothing to update to, until Intel releases new chips.
  • Reply 14 of 42
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,382member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    Oh no- I'm under attack by the Kool-aid brigade. Help me! Help me!! I'm afraid!! NOooooooooo!!!



    No sense of humor eh? Or was I too close to the truth

    Actually I wonder about those that are 100% negative in Mac blogs, why do they bother even being here? The psychology of it is fascinating. Is it a new mental disorder perhaps, blogiopathy maybe?
  • Reply 15 of 42
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    No sense of humor eh? Or was I too close to the truth

    Actually I wonder about those that are 100% negative in Mac blogs, why do they bother even being here? The psychology of it is fascinating. Is it a new mental disorder perhaps, blogiopathy maybe?



    Yes- caused by being forced to work on Windoze PCs all day.

    I'm really not 100% negative- honestly I'm not. You all just get bent out of shape perhaps when I get to close to the truth?
  • Reply 16 of 42
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,382member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    Yes- caused by being forced to work on Windoze PCs all day.

    I'm really not 100% negative- honestly I'm not. You all just get bent out of shape perhaps when I get to close to the truth?



    Ok ok truce



    I use Mac and PC (XP Pro / Vista and now 7 too) all day too ... Luckily I work for myself so i can limit the exposure to M$ to a safe level.
  • Reply 17 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    I used to say that till I shelled out $10,000 for a late model (as they called it) Mac Pro 8 core / dual 30 ACD and tons of RAM and 4 1 TB internal drives and GT 8800 cards etc ... now for some strange reason I have this feeling I don't want to see a new Mac Pro just yet ... strange isn't it?



    We surmise that when Snow Leopard comes, and better yet we start getting software updates that takes advantage of the multi-core processors and the new OS, our current Leopard OS Mac Pros will seem like Model T Fords.
  • Reply 18 of 42
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    Ok ok truce



    I use Mac and PC (XP Pro / Vista and now 7 too) all day too ... Luckily I work for myself so i can limit the exposure to M$ to a safe level.



    Cool. First thing I do when I get home every night and weekends when I get up is turn on the iMac- which by the way I love along with Leopard. There I said it- can we all sing Kumbaya now?
  • Reply 19 of 42
    mark2005mark2005 Posts: 1,158member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    Again this ridiculous statment. What does it mean? :

    1.) Was it selling so poorly last year? Or is it a big hit? Or is it still a flop? It's never advertised in print or TV anymore. No advertising usually means they've given up.

    2.) Three times what? Three times nothing is nothing.

    3.) "Hobby"?? Read failure. Is it considered a "hobby' because it brings entertainment to your TV or because it's a flop? Why is it even sold if they don't take it seriously. Was the iPod ever considered a "hobby"? For years it was basically a music device but was a phenomenal success and never once mentioned as a "hobby".



    What are the figures? Without them those "statistics" are totally misleading and bogus.



    If you take the deferred revenue, which is for both AppleTV and iPhone, and back out the iPhone (based on the bits that Apple gives), then you can get an estimate for AppleTV. In my calculations, I get sales of around 100K-200K per quarter. That said, some "analysts" estimate 6M AppleTVs were sold in 2008, so I could be missing something.



    As for hobby, I believe Apple refers to it as a hobby because

    1. the technology isn't really ready - Apple believes it really needs to be HD (preferably 1080p) but it takes too long and costs too much to send HD files over the net.

    2. the content isn't all there - Studios don't want to change their models and make content available. It looks like it will take increased piracy and the further erosion of prime-time television viewership to get them to change.

    3. the consumer isn't really ready to switch away from cable/satellite, though the movement from buying to renting or no DVDs has begun.
  • Reply 20 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    And what did you just post? Nothing relating to the article except a lame personal attack. How pathetic.



    Personal attacks rarely contain smilies.



    Also, I contribute a lot and (mostly) try to not make it personal. I will admit that sometimes you do drop the anger and have something to say, but you also say a terrific lot of negative things. Personally, I always feel horrible when I realise I've made some lame hate-filled comment (like most of us do at one point or another), and usually try to apologise or make up for it with the next comment. You should try it.
Sign In or Register to comment.