Apple's iPod touch sales double, nearly on par with iPhone

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  • Reply 81 of 146
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    So the "installed" market could be much less than 100 million.



    Yeah, probably, but it just plays games. Lots of people aren't buying the iPhone/iPod Touch to game on, they're buying it as a phone. So I'm sure the "installed" market of iPhone/iPod Touch systems that are used as gaming machines is a lot smaller too. Not to mention the willingness of that market to buy games priced over $5. Not only that, I don't know anyone who still has their 1st generation phone. So the "installed" market of iPhones probably isn't the same as the total sales numbers either.
  • Reply 82 of 146
    randythotrandythot Posts: 109member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    Everyone on the forum already recognizes that but just had to say it.



    Oh. One more thing it isn't just games that is driving sales, I see a lot of people replacing PDAs with Touches. Yes for business. One big thing is the lack of a camera which makes the thing useful even where cameras can't go. The other big thing is the integration of what would be a PDA functionality with web and media.





    Dave



    Wow. I would go so far as to say that analysts are dumb. I sure would like to see how you might quantify any predictions of how well Apple might do in future quarters. It is interesting to see how analysts use such diverging methods and valuations to at least come up with something remotely accurate, and in consensus with each other, but Apple does give them quarterly guidance numbers.



    I'm sure the PDA replacement phenomenon would be something those same analysts would be interested in researching.



    Two jobs I wouldn't want...weather forecaster, and financial analyst.
  • Reply 83 of 146
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,739member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    I don't know what you guys are talking about.



    Virgil-TB2 is about as correct as you can get.



    We're basically 3-5 years away from asking ourselves.



    "Do I really need small portable digicam?"



    "Do I really need a cheap videocam?"
    1. If you look at the success of the Flip Mino HD and other tiny cameras.

    2. If you look at the movement towards CMOS sensors.

    3. If you take the ramifications of having Smoothcam in iMovie (which obviates the

    4. need to have image stabilization in camera)

    5. If you understand the compression standards are getting even better

    6. If you see that encrypted HD outputs are coming

    Extrapolate that and add in some cloud services and it's clear that even laptops will

    not survive the mobile computer onslaught that is about the come.



    ARM is developing mult-core procs that sip power.

    Imagination is developing multi-core GPU that sip power.

    Apple is pushing multi touch




    The writing is on the wall and it's in BOLD RED folks. Mobile computing is the heir to the throne.



    Well 'murch, five years is a long time.



    I agree that by then, low end cameras, and possibly, even video cameras might find competition in this space. But they will be much better too, so it's hard to tell. Once IQ gets to a certain point on the lowest end, it becomes good enough for some uses. But the networks will have to allow the transmission of a higher quality video file before it will be useful to have a phone that can produce one.



    From what I'm seeing, at least so far, people just use phone video and photos to send to each other.



    If the iPhone has HD video out, that will certainly help if it can shoot HD video. Then it could be attached to, or transmit to a HD Tv.



    So far, Smoothcam doesn't impress me. It slows my Mac Pro down so much, I doubt most home shooters will want to use it. Apple will have to use both Open CL AND GrandCentral to make it useful. It's much easier to do in the camera.



    As far as ARM goes, MS will have to port Windows to it, which I doubt they will want to do, going from their history. Linux is still going nowhere. It's a failure on netbooks, with most people wanting Windows, which requires the Atom.



    Apple wouldn't put "real" OS X on ARM chips. Why should they? They would likely use the Atom for that if they were to make an OS X netbook-like machine.



    The iPhone OS is nice, but I don't see it taking over from OS X as a serious computing platform without serious GUI changes for much higher rez screens.



    RED, are you now communist?
  • Reply 84 of 146
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    In 5 years the DS has an installed base of over 100 million. In less than two years iPhone/ iTouch has an installed base of 37 million, where will it be in 5 years?

    Super Monkey Ball sold 300,000 copies in its first month. At $9.99 that's 3 million. Of course between August 2008 and now it has made much more money. Yes other games have earned over a million in revenue.

    I don't think Nintendo will be able to continue to sell games for $30. The only reason they were able to do that is because they have the majority of the portable game market.



    Nintendo will continue to sell games at $30, because people are still buying them in droves. The DS has over 20 titles that have sold in the 10-20 million range at the $30 price point. That's just in 5 years.
  • Reply 85 of 146
    irnchrizirnchriz Posts: 1,589member
    Apple would be wise to drop the price of the entry level iPod Touch to around £99 and boot their marketshare even more. Also one of the best things about the Apps is that if you have multiple iPhones/Touches in the home you can sync them with the same iTunes account and share the downloads across all of your devices which is great for multiplayer titles.
  • Reply 86 of 146
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    I didn't say anything about Nintendo going away. I'm not sure how you inferred that. I'm just saying they will have competition and will be forced to adjust.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by w00master View Post


    But where will Nintendo be in 5 years as well? Gone? I doubt it.



    Perhaps not, but you do know that Nintendo now has a download game/app store as well. I'm sure prices will adjust there.



    Just remember, everytime people underestimate Nintendo, they get get their a** handed to them later on.



    w00master



  • Reply 87 of 146
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,271member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post




    The iPhone OS is nice, but I don't see it taking over from OS X as a serious computing platform without serious GUI changes for much higher rez screens.



    RED, are you now communist?



    I don't think Apple's all that interested in Atom. It doesn't differentiate their product lineup and PA Semi wasn't brought on board to sit and watch Atom based product go out the door.



    Apple has ARM in more products than people realize.



    Airport Express/Time Capsule

    iPod Touch/iPhone



    and probably some I'm missing. With Snow Leopard and the subsequent OS after that I see Apple running full Mac OS X on ARM. It won't come with too much pain for developers if Xcode 4 and beyond leverages CLANG/LLVM to good effect.
  • Reply 88 of 146
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,739member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pixelcruncher View Post


    Yeah, probably, but it just plays games. Lots of people aren't buying the iPhone/iPod Touch to game on, they're buying it as a phone. So I'm sure the "installed" market of iPhone/iPod Touch systems that are used as gaming machines is a lot smaller too. Not to mention the willingness of that market to buy games priced over $5. Not only that, I don't know anyone who still has their 1st generation phone. So the "installed" market of iPhones probably isn't the same as the total sales numbers either.



    Most people sell their first gen iPhone or itouch. Estimates are that as much as 90% of all of them are still in use somewhere.



    It's not likely that more than half of Nintendo's machines are still being used.



    As for games on the Apple products, well, everyone I know with one has at least three or four games, with some having a dozen or more.



    The thing about the game prices is not that $10 and under prices will mean poor games, because we can already see that's not the case, but whether that will damage Nintendo's business model. If they sell games for $20 and up, where does that leave them?
  • Reply 89 of 146
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    You cannot use the past 5 years to chart the future 5 years. 5 years ago their was little competition for Nintendo. This won't stop with the iPhone, other phones will begin to play games too. Nintendo will see more competition as time goes on.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pixelcruncher View Post


    Nintendo will continue to sell games at $30, because people are still buying them in droves. The DS has over 20 titles that have sold in the 10-20 million range at the $30 price point. That's just in 5 years.



  • Reply 90 of 146
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Most people sell their first gen iPhone or itouch. Estimates are that as much as 90% of all of them are still in use somewhere.



    It's not likely that more than half of Nintendo's machines are still being used.



    As for games on the Apple products, well, everyone I know with one has at least three or four games, with some having a dozen or more.



    The thing about the game prices is not that $10 and under prices will mean poor games, because we can already see that's not the case, but whether that will damage Nintendo's business model. If they sell games for $20 and up, where does that leave them?



    I think it's also going to cut into portable DVD players as well. I thoroughly enjoyed watching a movie on mine from NYC to DC last month.
  • Reply 91 of 146
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Nintendo is the devil.
  • Reply 92 of 146
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Did you expect some rivalry between people who owned iPhone's and people who owned the Touch?

    What's good for one is good for the other.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    I love how all the iPhone heads come on this thread and talk up the Touch- just love it.



  • Reply 93 of 146
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,739member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    I don't think Apple's all that interested in Atom. It doesn't differentiate their product lineup and PA Semi wasn't brought on board to sit and watch Atom based product go out the door.



    Apple has ARM in more products than people realize.



    Airport Express/Time Capsule

    iPod Touch/iPhone



    and probably some I'm missing. With Snow Leopard and the subsequent OS after that I see Apple running full Mac OS X on ARM. It won't come with too much pain for developers if Xcode 4 and beyond leverages CLANG/LLVM to good effect.



    It depends on where Apple wants to go with this. If they want to say that yu can simply install your programs on it, then it will need the Atom, or equiv. because an emulator would be impossible on such slow chips.



    If they truly want to have two totally different lines, then, yes, the ARM will be fine.



    But I'm not sure what Apple wants to do here. I don't think anyone can give a good guess right now.



    One reason why the Linux based netbooks are failing is because people want to run the regular programs on them. The same could be true for any Apple product. Talking about it being easy to port the programs over isn't true. It will be a LOT of work. Perhaps impossible work.



    You can't just take an OS X GUI based program with the menu bar, drop down menus, floating menus and the like, and convert that to the much simpler iPhone GUI. The programs, in many cases, won't be viable at all.



    I see the iPhone GUI good until it gets to about 720 x 500, or so. Beyond that, there's no reason for it. Would Apple then build yet another GUI? I don't know, that would get confusing. I would think they would need the OS X GUI.
  • Reply 94 of 146
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,739member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    Nintendo is the devil.



    In a red dress!
  • Reply 95 of 146
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    Did you expect some rivalry between people who owned iPhone's and people who owned the Touch?

    What's good for one is good for the other.



    Not at all- ask them. You are the ones that state that you need to own an iPhone to post on an iPhone thread.
  • Reply 96 of 146
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    In a red dress!



  • Reply 97 of 146
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Most people sell their first gen iPhone or itouch. Estimates are that as much as 90% of all of them are still in use somewhere.



    It's not likely that more than half of Nintendo's machines are still being used.



    I'd love to see some stats on those statements. That doesn't make any sense, people resell the iphone, but throw their DS in the trash? After a couple years? I doubt you can find any evidence to support that, here's a link supporting a much larger installed base than you claim:



    http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/new...hp?story=14327



    Feel free to post the link you got your info from, I would love to read it.
  • Reply 98 of 146
    nizynizy Posts: 24member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pixelcruncher View Post


    Nintendo will continue to sell games at $30, because people are still buying them in droves. The DS has over 20 titles that have sold in the 10-20 million range at the $30 price point. That's just in 5 years.



    The article says that only 7 DS titles have sold upwards of 10M copies and 83 reaching 1M each. I assume most of the 10M+ titles are Nintendo games too. Its like the Wii, ridiculously profitable for Nintendo and maybe profitable for everyone else.



    As for game prices, $30 is way too much for most of the crap on DS. Variable pricing works much better, allowing for better value for money. Eventually Nintendo will have to lower prices as mobile gaming takes off even more and users start to question the cost of a DS game vs. iPhone, especially when many iPhone games offer similar quality experiences.
  • Reply 99 of 146
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    You cannot use the past 5 years to chart the future 5 years. 5 years ago their was little competition for Nintendo.



    Where did I say that? You simply made the point that after 3 years, the iPhone has a game that sold 300,000 in a month. I was simply countering that the DS track record over 5 years blows that out of the water. People are trying to make the iPhone out to be a gaming machine. I don't think that's true, its an excellent phone with great "timewasters".
  • Reply 100 of 146
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pixelcruncher View Post


    Apple is a leader in MOBILE PHONE gaming. Let's be honest, the Nintendo DS is 5 years old and has an installed base of over 100 million, and their sales still are through the roof (even DSi sales are huge, and honestly "WHY?"). Developers can make tens of millions of dollars off of a successful DS title (Nintendogs alone sold over 20 million copies at around $30 a pop). I think that I read recently that the most successful iPhone game made hundreds of thousands for the developer (?). Not in the same league.



    The iPhone has "timewasters", games that are fun and pass the time. Unlike every gaming platform out there, the iPhone doesn't have a single game that someone would buy the platform just to play the game. I don't know that it ever will. That doesn't mean small developers can't make a buck, but I don't think anyone is going to sell 20 million copies of a game at $29.99 on the App Store any time soon.



    1) The leader comment can be taken many ways. Nintendo still leads in almost all categories but that is quickly changing.



    2) DSi Sales are good but a little too late this round for Nintendo now that Apple has allowed an API for the 30-pin connector. Nintendo are copying the iPhone OS X model by including more NAND and allowing for cheaper digital downloads. Once the D-Pads hit market Touches will start outselling iPhones.



    3) That cost goes to physical media and distribution and to a higher cost for their developers. The App Store has over 35k apps in 10 months because it's inexpensive and easy. While this allows for a lot of crap it also it attractive for the quality game makers.



    4) All games are timewasters.



    5) Selling a game on the DS for $30 would be less on the App Store and have considerably more HW power available. If we consider how common iPods in conjunction with DS users we can probably find many that would want to combine the two devices for a faster gaming console while saving money while doing it.
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