Steve Jobs has bet the farm on iPhone
Well, hard to comprehend, but yup, I think Mr. Jobs has bet the Apple farm on iPhone. If they are successful, Apple can become a 50 billion/year company in 4 or 5 years with the stock going up 4 to 10 times or it'll be a slow slog trying to make iPhone successful with the stock price cut in half.
Why? I think he thinks - and I'm apt to agree - that the next battlefield is the handheld computer. The original one was the mainframe. IBM won. The next one was desktop computing (where laptops are a subcategory). Wintel won. The one coming is the handheld computer. This handheld computer will in fact replace many of the desktops and laptops today through Palm Foleo type devices providing big keyboard & mice with the handheld containing the data and maybe even powering the screen and the providing the horsepower.
Intel's Silverthorne is coming in 2008, an x86 processor for handhelds, and they consider it the most important Intel processor release since the Pentium. It will provide enough horsepower for 95% of the market needs in 3 years or so when it is on 32 nm.
I'm glad Apple's come prepared, because the onslaught from competitors is going to be huge. They to refine the iPhone and OS X on a pretty quick basis, keep up the user experience from buying to content to communications, and do it quick.
It's a big bet. (My money is itching too, but I'm still weighing the odds).
Why? I think he thinks - and I'm apt to agree - that the next battlefield is the handheld computer. The original one was the mainframe. IBM won. The next one was desktop computing (where laptops are a subcategory). Wintel won. The one coming is the handheld computer. This handheld computer will in fact replace many of the desktops and laptops today through Palm Foleo type devices providing big keyboard & mice with the handheld containing the data and maybe even powering the screen and the providing the horsepower.
Intel's Silverthorne is coming in 2008, an x86 processor for handhelds, and they consider it the most important Intel processor release since the Pentium. It will provide enough horsepower for 95% of the market needs in 3 years or so when it is on 32 nm.
I'm glad Apple's come prepared, because the onslaught from competitors is going to be huge. They to refine the iPhone and OS X on a pretty quick basis, keep up the user experience from buying to content to communications, and do it quick.
It's a big bet. (My money is itching too, but I'm still weighing the odds).
Comments
You've still left me hanging, though. Do you think it's a winner or not?
http://www.apple.com/macosx/features/inkwell/
Is technology that I want to see improve. I think Apple should certainly be looking at Tablet Macs for vertical markets. I don't think Tablets will ever be mainstream but they have their place and pen based writing is important.
http://www.apple.com/macosx/features/speech/
You don?t have to be a scientist to know that the computer of the future will talk, listen and understand. That computer of the future is the Apple Macintosh of today. Apple?s Speech Recognition and Speech Synthesis Technologies now give speech-savvy applications the power to carry out your voice commands and even speak back to you in plain English.
That's not enough. Comand and Control isn't going to change a persons life. You need Speech to Text that works well without a lot of training. The iPhone keyboard is nice but I'd love to have a nice built in microphone and the ability to just dictate in small messages.
Support the hardware through Mac OS X and Mac OS X Server. I'm be flabbergasted if Leopard's mail server doesn't support Push Email to the iPhone. That feature alone would result in hundreds if not thousands of new licenses sold.
I've posited that Apple may be in a position to become a Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MNVO). AT&T is nice but if we're talking about the iPhone becoming truly a "3rd leg" then eventually Apple is going to want to handle all branding and consumer support issues directly.
Stop kowtowing to Microsoft. I realize it was necessary in the recent past but it's time to do for document interoperability what moving to web standards has done for the Net. Office has its place for many but there needs to be a big brother to iWork that is capable and extensible for business. Base it around Open Document format or whatever to ensure that there is a viable market for multiple vendors and thus I won't have to worry about whether the Microsoft tax has been paid to properly view a document. Worst case scenario Microsoft kills Office Mac and I just run it in Fusion/Parallels anyways. No biggie ..Mac users have paid out the nose for Office Mac over the years anyways.
Deliver top notch Developer tools which support the iPhone and other mobile products. I don't care if you have to charge for it deliver something that makes creating wonderful mobile apps a rewarding experience.
Bring Unified Messaging to OS X. The components are improving. iChat with collaboration, Mail/Calendar Server, add a bit of improved Telephony features tie in the iPhone and other products. My data should be with me everywhere and communicating should be effortless.
If Stevie boy can pull this off he may go down as THE GUY in computer history. People will name their children after him.
Touch screen is the future. Weather it be phones, tablets or touch screen desktop keyboards. The future I envision is a one without laptops/notebooks or mice,. When on the go you'll either have an iPhone-type device/phone or a multi-touch 10-15 inch tablet. Physical keyboard's will die out, so will mice, and I say good riddance to them. Software is the real, real future.
Physical keyboard's will die out, . . .
I doubt it. I'm a writer and want the feel of a real keyboard. It is comfortable and I know where I am by touching it. A touch screen layout that simulates a keyboard does not have the feedback I want and need to type confidently.
There are things that cannot be done with fat fingers. Would you really want to work all day in photoshop on a touchscreen? How many times a day would you have to clean off the screen in order to see what you're doing?
For phones and iPods, sure.. workstations will remain with keyboards and mice forever or at least until mind-controlled mice and keyboard replacements come.
..workstations will remain with keyboards and mice forever
That's a bold statement.
So those people expecting to use touch screens like some super kiosk are sadly mistaken. If you look at the proper form for mousing and keyboarding it is with arms distended down your side...elbows bent at roughly a %90 angle with wrists in a comfortable position above the mouse/kb
You simply "must" emulate this form as much as possible. Vertical touch screens won't work as lifting your arm continously will put tremendous strain on your shoulders and joints.
Multi Touch will have its place but it will have to be in conjuction with other input method and it will have to be horizontal in design.
This is that next giant worldwide market.
The handheld computer.
It's coming quite fast.
And Jobs' smartest long term bet will require sacrifices from within his own product line.
...as well as one very expansive accessory...
(That is until some kind of screen feedback technology is integrated, transition complete)
Not totally sure about this Murch, but I believe one of the conditions of the Apple/MS deal was that Apple would stay away from developing voice recognition software. Bill thought it was the future.
I sure hope there's a sunset on that deal. Vista's speech recognition is fledgling but at leasts it's there to be further developed. When David Pogue says he writes his books with Dragon NaturallySpeaking running on a Mac I think that's a pretty big testament to the efficacy of SR in computing.
The goal for me is to not have to touch the computer. That being said I do welcome the evolution to touch screen technology because in some areas it's going to be more intuitive than mousing.
Here's a link about how Nuances phone softwware can beat the fastest "texter"
http://www.nuance.com/news/amazingrace/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-L4Jk6GDud0
I believe a portable communications device needs to adapt to many different ways of use and input modality. The iPhone was smart to eschew a physical keyboard and go with a larger screen IMO.
Software UI will make formely hard coded functionality much more intuitive and easy.
I couldn't quite figure out why Jobs was hyping it this much. It's not just a usable and fun to use phone to him, but it seems like its the way forward to the next 30 years, and with all the iPhone news, Otellini's comments on Silverthorne, the Palm Foleo, Jobs/Gates' talk about the "Cloud" at Mossberg's conference, and finally the seeming fact that no one is excited about personal computers anymore, it finally dawned on me that, yup, the handheld computer is the way forward (for Apple).
I don't know about you guys, but personal computers have more computing power then 95% of the market's needs. Most especially the consumer market. The usage model for today's users is Internet stuff, and we have ample horsepower for that. Even gamers seem satiated. The hardware vendors seem desperate for MS to make Windows slower so that there is a good reason to upgrade!
The path does seem to be the "Cloud".
The cloud is a wireless internet infrastructure. It really needs to be 100 mbit/s (probably 1000 mbit/s) before it becomes the "Cloud", but once that happens, I think it finally spells a sea change in the market. The telcos will be victorious over cable companies (unless the cable companies go wireless) in the long war between the two for providing Internet access. Why? You just buy a TV with a wireless built-in and you can view any kind of content you want.
So, why do I think a handheld computer will replace a personal computer? Primarily because of the problems with syncing. It's far easier, if you just had one device. All assuming that we reject putting our data on some server somewhere. So, if there is choice between the two, the Cloud will dictate that it'll be your hand held one because all of your vital computing stuff can then be with you at all times.
The stars are aligned. Usage models for computing isn't compute-bound anymore, its network-bound. It's amazing, but the software has to catch up to today's hardware. It never will (software design cycles are longer than hardware ones), so the hardware guys will slow down and concentrate elsewhere. The elsewhere is in the ultra-mobile space.
Today's cell phones contain hardware about equivalent to a laptop circa 2000, maybe 2001. In 3 or 4 years, they will be as powerful as today's laptops with ~1.5 GHz dual cores. In 3 or 4 years, I don't think I'd be needing a more powerful personal computer than what I could get today. I don't think I'd need a 24+ inch monitor either. (Where does a personal computer go from today? Other than replacements and incremental penetration into the population?)
So, all I'd do is dock the hand held computer to a 24 inch monitor with keyboard and mouse or a laptop cradle with 15" monitor and keyboard & trackpad, and away I go. (There could be the wireless dock option too). Perhaps the caveat is the need for terabytes of storage presuming I have a video library, but that could come with the TV or your home data server.
So, this is where the iPhone (and AppleTV) comes in. In 2010, when the iPhone has a few 1 GHz processors and 64 GB of flash (or 250 GB of disk if Apple intends to make a disk based one) operating over 50+ Mbit/s WiMAX, will you really need to have a separate computer?
If the answer is no, then you have to ask the same question in the business world full of cubicle farms. If you have your work computer/cell phone with you 24/7, I'm sure the managers won't mind. Heck, they may even be doing something Green by letting you telecommute more often as long as you are still productive, wherever you may be. If that answer is no, than oh boy.
The cell phone market is one where 90+% penetration into the population is possible, with a big fraction having more than one. PC penetration? I'm not sure if it has broken 50%, what is it, 40%?
This is where iPhone is going, and I think Jobs wants to ship 50+ maybe 100+ million units a year eventually.
A note about AppleTV. It's an "iPod" with a TV as screen. Apple knows that the living room is a big market, but I don't think they quite know how to do it yet, hence Jobs states that AppleTV is a hobby. I'm beginning to think that Apple indeed has to make an actual "Apple TV" that is in essence a immobile iPhone - an OS X computer TV. One with a wireless capabilities. This is assuming they can convince the content makers to go electrons only. I presume AT&T would be a willing partner.
I'll put this in bold to convey how strongly believe it:
Touch screen is the future. Weather it be phones, tablets or touch screen desktop keyboards. The future I envision is a one without laptops/notebooks or mice,. When on the go you'll either have an iPhone-type device/phone or a multi-touch 10-15 inch tablet. Physical keyboard's will die out, so will mice, and I say good riddance to them. Software is the real, real future.
Remember, guys, it is not that far off that computers will have sufficient computing complexity and power to simulate the human brain... by 2025 or 2045 (if I recall correctly). Once you can speak and gesture to your digital assistant simulacrum and it correctly interprets your wishes, we will truly have entered the Cyborg Age.
Right now the desktop computer is peaking, and mobility is becoming more important as technology (mind you, very recent technology) is allowing us to disconnect from walls and still communicate without limitation. It took desktops almost 20 years to reach their peak and and develop the technology necessary with that to allow us to see the next logical step in usability is and how to progress towards it.
If hand held computing is the next big thing (and I would tend to agree), whatever lessons we learn and technologies we invent in the coming era will point us towards the next big thing after that.
In other words, none of us really have any idea what the world will look like after hand helds have peaked, or even what hand helds will look like once they've peaked! Who in 1984 could have, in any semblance of detail, imagined what the technology landscape looks like in 2007 and guessed hand held convergence would be the big thing? At best they could make a rough, pie-in-the-sky guesstimate, and even then it probably would have been full of silly details and flaws representative of that era's thinking.
Personally, I'll just stick to being excited about where this new push towards mobility is going.
I think the iPhone will meet its one and only sales projection of 10 million units by end of 2008, especially if they sell $299 and $399 versions, and continue to upgrade the radio, the storage and the software. But that isn't going to make Apple a 50 billion $ company, and I'm talking about 2010+.
I couldn't quite figure out why Jobs was hyping it this much. It's not just a usable and fun to use phone to him, but it seems like its the way forward to the next 30 years, and with all the iPhone news, Otellini's comments on Silverthorne, the Palm Foleo, Jobs/Gates' talk about the "Cloud" at Mossberg's conference, and finally the seeming fact that no one is excited about personal computers anymore, it finally dawned on me that, yup, the handheld computer is the way forward (for Apple).
I don't know about you guys, but personal computers have more computing power then 95% of the market's needs. Most especially the consumer market. The usage model for today's users is Internet stuff, and we have ample horsepower for that. Even gamers seem satiated. The hardware vendors seem desperate for MS to make Windows slower so that there is a good reason to upgrade!
The path does seem to be the "Cloud".
The cloud is a wireless internet infrastructure. It really needs to be 100 mbit/s (probably 1000 mbit/s) before it becomes the "Cloud", but once that happens, I think it finally spells a sea change in the market. The telcos will be victorious over cable companies (unless the cable companies go wireless) in the long war between the two for providing Internet access. Why? You just buy a TV with a wireless built-in and you can view any kind of content you want.
So, why do I think a handheld computer will replace a personal computer? Primarily because of the problems with syncing. It's far easier, if you just had one device. All assuming that we reject putting our data on some server somewhere. So, if there is choice between the two, the Cloud will dictate that it'll be your hand held one because all of your vital computing stuff can then be with you at all times.
The stars are aligned. Usage models for computing isn't compute-bound anymore, its network-bound. It's amazing, but the software has to catch up to today's hardware. It never will (software design cycles are longer than hardware ones), so the hardware guys will slow down and concentrate elsewhere. The elsewhere is in the ultra-mobile space.
Today's cell phones contain hardware about equivalent to a laptop circa 2000, maybe 2001. In 3 or 4 years, they will be as powerful as today's laptops with ~1.5 GHz dual cores. In 3 or 4 years, I don't think I'd be needing a more powerful personal computer than what I could get today. I don't think I'd need a 24+ inch monitor either. (Where does a personal computer go from today? Other than replacements and incremental penetration into the population?)
So, all I'd do is dock the hand held computer to a 24 inch monitor with keyboard and mouse or a laptop cradle with 15" monitor and keyboard & trackpad, and away I go. (There could be the wireless dock option too). Perhaps the caveat is the need for terabytes of storage presuming I have a video library, but that could come with the TV or your home data server.
So, this is where the iPhone (and AppleTV) comes in. In 2010, when the iPhone has a few 1 GHz processors and 64 GB of flash (or 250 GB of disk if Apple intends to make a disk based one) operating over 50+ Mbit/s WiMAX, will you really need to have a separate computer?
If the answer is no, then you have to ask the same question in the business world full of cubicle farms. If you have your work computer/cell phone with you 24/7, I'm sure the managers won't mind. Heck, they may even be doing something Green by letting you telecommute more often as long as you are still productive, wherever you may be. If that answer is no, than oh boy.
The cell phone market is one where 90+% penetration into the population is possible, with a big fraction having more than one. PC penetration? I'm not sure if it has broken 50%, what is it, 40%?
This is where iPhone is going, and I think Jobs wants to ship 50+ maybe 100+ million units a year eventually.
A note about AppleTV. It's an "iPod" with a TV as screen. Apple knows that the living room is a big market, but I don't think they quite know how to do it yet, hence Jobs states that AppleTV is a hobby. I'm beginning to think that Apple indeed has to make an actual "Apple TV" that is in essence a immobile iPhone - an OS X computer TV. One with a wireless capabilities. This is assuming they can convince the content makers to go electrons only. I presume AT&T would be a willing partner.
Wow. Interesting vision of the future. Also I wholeheartedly agree that mobile computing, iPhone ect, and WIMAX go together like peas and carrots. I wonder how Apple plan to integrate this into their future plans as ATT sold their WIMAX spectrum to clearwire. Do you know if there are any special agreements between ATT and Clearwire for future cooperation?
Well, hard to comprehend, but yup, I think Mr. Jobs has bet the Apple farm on iPhone. If they are successful, Apple can become a 50 billion/year company in 4 or 5 years with the stock going up 4 to 10 times or it'll be a slow slog trying to make iPhone successful with the stock price cut in half.
You are 100% correct. Just look at Apple.com.
http://www.apple.com/
Never in the past 5-10 years has Apple removed the four panes below the main image and the "Hot News" bar. Now Apple.com is solely a showcase for iPhone!
The cell phone market is one where 90+% penetration into the population is possible, with a big fraction having more than one. PC penetration? I'm not sure if it has broken 50%, what is it, 40%?
It's above 50 percent in 8 countries and the PC penetration for each country may be slightly higher than this because the population figures are from 2006 or 2007 and the number of computers in-use is from 2005.
Population: Wikipedia
PCs: Computer Industry Almanach
"The U.S. accounts for over 25% of all PCs in-use compared to 4.6% of worldwide population."
United States: 230.4/302 = 76 percent
Canada: 23.71/31.6 = 75 percent
Australia: 14.62/19.8 = 74 percent
UK: 38.62/60 = 64 percent
Germany: 50.42/82 = 61 percent
Japan: 73.66/127 = 58 percent
South Korea: 28.38/49 = 57.9 percent
France: 32.40/64 = 50.6 percent
Wow. Interesting vision of the future. Also I wholeheartedly agree that mobile computing, iPhone ect, and WIMAX go together like peas and carrots. I wonder how Apple plan to integrate this into their future plans as ATT sold their WIMAX spectrum to clearwire. Do you know if there are any special agreements between ATT and Clearwire for future cooperation?
Thank the Flying Spaghetti Monster... I invested in T, AAPL and more recently CLWR with just this scenario in mind.
You are 100% correct. Just look at Apple.com.
http://www.apple.com/
Never in the past 5-10 years has Apple removed the four panes below the main image and the "Hot News" bar. Now Apple.com is solely a showcase for iPhone!
iPhone will truly become the 'computer for the rest of us', especially once prices drop and Apple has committed to their own Wi-Max network.