He's saying that IPTV/Streaming will reach mainstream in 3-5 years. Yes, bandwidth isn't the only issue but with studios releasing content day and date with DVD to both downloads and cable there is no studio issue.
Ouch. Does anyone have sales number for total bluray players? i'm going to have to say bluray is not doing very well right now. Oh, and for those of you glamoring over PS3's sudden rise in sales mid year
Expecting them to release their grip totally and treat online downloads the same way they do physical media will probably take awhile.
Incorrect assumption. Studios like download because it affords them more control over thier content not less. Where do you think pirated content comes from anyway? Half copies of low bitrate iTunes movies? Or rips of DVDs and BluRay?
They don't particularly care for physical media the way it works today.
In any case, it's not even an article relevant to the discussion. It's saying that the MPAA website is doomed to failure because pirate sites are cheaper and have no DRM. The fact that torrenting movies is pretty common for some folks indicates that the studios WILL move to support legal downloads even more because a low bitrate iTunes HD movie is a heck of a lot better to have out in the wild than a high quality rip off Blu-Ray.
The DRM is no different anyway. Do you have managed copy on Blu-Ray? No? At best you have low-rez digitial copy.
Quote:
Now I've heard some say here they'll be forced to change. How? They own the stuff. You are at their whim. If they were moving faster than the RIAA you would be able to burn video from iTunes the way you do music.
Yes, they own the stuff. Therefore they sell on their terms. We buy on our terms. In the middle money gets made. They will continue to sell physical media but they will also sell downloads and it will become mainstream in 3-5 years if not earlier.
Ouch. Does anyone have sales number for total bluray players? i'm going to have to say bluray is not doing very well right now. Oh, and for those of you glamoring over PS3's sudden rise in sales mid year
...Now I've heard some say here they'll be forced to change. How? They own the stuff. You are at their whim. If they were moving faster than the RIAA you would be able to burn video from iTunes the way you do music.
...
My take is that that they are being forced to change in the same way the music industry did. Video is just more bandwidth intensive so it is happening at a later date. This time around they've got the music industry as an example of what happens if you don't pursue online distribution. Other companies move in and start taking over the pie.
Edit: I forgot to mention the how...
P2P and specifically torrents are close to doing to video what they already did to audio. This time around though, there are more legal, online alternatives. The intellectual property holders have wised up a bit. (just a bit) They just might succeed in making the legal alternatives appealing enough that piracy never goes completely mainstream. Without those alternatives, infringing geeks will eventually work the out the kinks, they'll make it such that even idiots can watch torrented video on their living room TV. Right now it still requires more knowledge and tinkering than the average schmoe is willing to devote. The content owners realize this after having learned an expensive lesson. They'll still drag their feet, kicking and screaming. But now they realize that there is a breaking point where they lose control of the industry.
As the percentage of homes with network-video-players increase (PS3, xbox, etc), and UPnP media servers become common place (built into routers with a USB attached HDs, or a home NAS), video piracy will become mainstream unless the legal alternatives are convenient and cheap. For a lot of consumers, that means being able to watch anything instantly by browsing an online video store using their TV's remote. Not all, but a huge portion of the market for sure. Some people are willing to drive to a store and buy a physical disc. Others want to lounge around on their couch and instantly watch anything, even if not at 40mps.
My take is that that they are being forced to change in the same way the music industry did. Video is just more bandwidth intensive so it is happening at a later date. This time around they've got the music industry as an example of what happens if you don't pursue online distribution. Other companies move in and start taking over the pie.
Edit: I forgot to mention the how...
P2P and specifically torrents are close to doing to video what they already did to audio. This time around though, there are more legal, online alternatives. The intellectual property holders have wised up a bit. (just a bit) They just might succeed in making the legal alternatives appealing enough that piracy never goes completely mainstream. Without those alternatives, infringing geeks will eventually work the out the kinks, they'll make it such that even idiots can watch torrented video on their living room TV. Right now it still requires more knowledge and tinkering than the average schmoe is willing to devote. The content owners realize this after having learned an expensive lesson. They'll still drag their feet, kicking and screaming. But now they realize that there is a breaking point where they lose control of the industry.
As the percentage of homes with network-video-players increase (PS3, xbox, etc), and UPnP media servers become common place (built into routers with a USB attached HDs, or a home NAS), video piracy will become mainstream unless the legal alternatives are convenient and cheap. For a lot of consumers, that means being able to watch anything instantly by browsing an online video store using their TV's remote. Not all, but a huge portion of the market for sure. Some people are willing to drive to a store and buy a physical disc. Others want to lounge around on their couch and instantly watch anything, even if not at 40mps.
Quote:
They just might succeed in making the legal alternatives appealing enough that piracy never goes completely mainstream. Without those alternatives, infringing geeks will eventually work the out the kinks, they'll make it such that even idiots can watch torrented video on their living room TV. Right now it still requires more knowledge and tinkering than the average schmoe is willing to devote. The content owners realize this after having learned an expensive lesson. They'll still drag their feet, kicking and screaming. But now they realize that there is a breaking point where they lose control of the industry.
Any evidence to support this?
I do think this will happen but knowing people and the movie industry and their past record of " letting go " I just think it'll take awhile for the whole ball of wax.
Incorrect assumption. Studios like download because it affords them more control over thier content not less. Where do you think pirated content comes from anyway? Half copies of low bitrate iTunes movies? Or rips of DVDs and BluRay?
They don't particularly care for physical media the way it works today.
In any case, it's not even an article relevant to the discussion. It's saying that the MPAA website is doomed to failure because pirate sites are cheaper and have no DRM. The fact that torrenting movies is pretty common for some folks indicates that the studios WILL move to support legal downloads even more because a low bitrate iTunes HD movie is a heck of a lot better to have out in the wild than a high quality rip off Blu-Ray.
The DRM is no different anyway. Do you have managed copy on Blu-Ray? No? At best you have low-rez digitial copy.
Yes, they own the stuff. Therefore they sell on their terms. We buy on our terms. In the middle money gets made. They will continue to sell physical media but they will also sell downloads and it will become mainstream in 3-5 years if not earlier.
Quote:
Studios like download because it affords them more control over thier content not less.
Yes but will consumers as a whole go for that? I don't think so. Especially since they've had it the other way for so long.
In the mean time they'll just go down and buy a disc.
Yes but will consumers as a whole go for that? I don't think so. Especially since they've had it the other way for so long.
In the mean time they'll just go down and buy a disc.
I rent movie (via iTunes) now, so my risk is $3-$4 if the movie sucks. If the movie is good, I will likely go buy the DVD/Blu-Ray version so I can enjoy it anytime I want.
In the future, I think if people really enjoy a movie, they will buy it on whatever physical disc/drive format that is available for offline use. If no such offline format is available, they will have it "pre-downloaded" to every device they own that they might want to watch it on.
I rent movie (via iTunes) now, so my risk is $3-$4 if the movie sucks. If the movie is good, I will likely go buy the DVD/Blu-Ray version so I can enjoy it anytime I want.
In the future, I think if people really enjoy a movie, they will buy it on whatever physical disc/drive format that is available for offline use. If no such offline format is available, they will have it "pre-downloaded" to every device they own that they might want to watch it on.
A good idea and solution. It might take awhile to be implimented for every device though.
By your terms, the flexibility can not be there because the download service is not feasible for today's infrastructure, right?
It's nice to see that your views are more flexible, now. I guess what people say about old dog and new tricks are wrong.
No. I'm saying if you can't use the media without the flexibilty that you now have with a disc ( and people are already used to ) they're not going to go for something that has less. It sounds like you're taking to issues and trying to make them into one.
It has nothing to do with age ( other than giving one a little insight in to how these things go in this arena ). It has everything to do with what the consumer wants.
I never said I was against this. I never said it wouldn't be a neat idea. I've downloaded many torrents myself and videos on iTunes. It just has a few things to be worked out for practicalities sake. The technological part of this will go faster than the dealing with people part ( the consumer / The movie studios ). That's why I'm being conservative about this and saying give it 10 years to come to full fruition.
I'm not going to actually argue with Jim, against his logic, I'd only fail.
this flexibility you talk about, what is it exactly?
is it playing a file on an STB people have been doing that for years, watching movies on a TV is the next best thing to a home cinema projector. (is the next best thing to a cinema screen, is the next best thing to a play etc.)
but hold on, both of those are large stationary objects, around which most modern living rooms focus, where in the past they focused round the fire.
Ahh, so it must be flexibility in terms of computers, yes, they ARE recent, and laptops even more so.
But hold on, people got used to those, and used them to download those apparently inflexible files.
gee, that doesn't sound right
oh wait a minute, perhaps its flexibility in terms of a portable device that would allow for audio and video playback, I think there is a large company that makes those. ?? Unlike a cassette walkman CD or mini disc player where one is hampered by physical media, limited by how many physical storage containers you can carry under one arm.
this Audio and Video playback unit started off letting you carry around 100's of albums in something only slightly larger than a cassette box.
wow, isnt progress amazing!
oh, but then by Jims logic THAT isnt flexible, because people needed to attach to a computer FIRST, then and only then, once they had filled up their media player, did it remotely look flexible.
so, it couldn't be that either... could it?
even though that same company sold a few of those devices, it was REALLY limited in its flexibility. and more and more people who needed a portable music solution STUCK to their CD walkman and case of CDs when they , say, went on vacation, or jogging.
I don't know how that company managed to sell any product at all.
but then the company started selling music files that you could upload (SOOOO inflexible) right there on the device, but again hampered by the need to harness the device to a computer.
hold on, let me pause and ask everyone else, remember i said the TV had replaced the fire as the focus of the modern living room, can anyone see a time when the TV will be replace by the computer as most people focus point?
what? thats already happening?
wow, those younger generations, ha, always so up to date.
but anyway, I believe somehow the company selling the music files, managed to JUST make enough money via that "inflexible" venture, that they decided to sell video files.. wow, like how dumb are they, it didn't work out well with the music files, or did it?
but they also started selling a set tp box for people to use with their TVs.. remember those, they used to be the focus of peoples living rooms, and like people are SO ok with that, they know how to use a TV with a STB, they have done it for years, it might be inflexible, but they got used to it...
so why wouldn't it work with another STB selling content, in the same way? I mean, that company that does it, sort of made a profit..? right?
i even found out that the same company lets you download those music files TO BUY! wirelessly!!
yes, thats right, on the latest versions of the audio and video player you can download music files over the air
again with that progress thing.
so OVER TIME they got less and less "inflexible" as the technology progressed.
and, guess what, all along people just got more and more USED to this level of inconvenience and irritating inflexibility, because in the long run, that company was right.
the pipes feeding the data into people homes became larger and the compression got better, and more and more people took it for granted, until the focus turned AWAY from the CD walkman.
some of us used one of those audio and video devices early on, and could easily SEE the potential, because oddly enough, DESPITE its apparent "inflexibility" we found it convenient to use*
imagine that boys and girls.
Progress is an amazing thing.
if there is a moral to the story, I guess its that you shouldn't get in the way of progress and rant and rave that the old ways were the best, but every generation will have someone who doesn't see the benefit in anything new, and cite their experience as the basis for wisdom.. sadly its often not worth the papyrus its scraped onto.
I wonder if I will rant and rave that music file players are best, at some point in the future, when brain wave implants can put you right there on stage as it happened?
hope not.
* just as I am finding a certain STB at the moment as I feed it with video files, just as I fed music files to an audio device a while back.
I'm not going to actually argue with Jim, against his logic, I'd only fail.
this flexibility you talk about, what is it exactly?
is it playing a file on an STB people have been doing that for years, watching movies on a TV is the next best thing to a home cinema projector. (is the next best thing to a cinema screen, is the next best thing to a play etc.)
but hold on, both of those are large stationary objects, around which most modern living rooms focus, where in the past they focused round the fire.
Ahh, so it must be flexibility in terms of computers, yes, they ARE recent, and laptops even more so.
But hold on, people got used to those, and used them to download those apparently inflexible files.
gee, that doesn't sound right
oh wait a minute, perhaps its flexibility in terms of a portable device that would allow for audio and video playback, I think there is a large company that makes those. ?? Unlike a cassette walkman CD or mini disc player where one is hampered by physical media, limited by how many physical storage containers you can carry under one arm.
this Audio and Video playback unit started off letting you carry around 100's of albums in something only slightly larger than a cassette box.
wow, isnt progress amazing!
oh, but then by Jims logic THAT isnt flexible, because people needed to attach to a computer FIRST, then and only then, once they had filled up their media player, did it remotely look flexible.
so, it couldn't be that either... could it?
even though that same company sold a few of those devices, it was REALLY limited in its flexibility. and more and more people who needed a portable music solution STUCK to their CD walkman and case of CDs when they , say, went on vacation, or jogging.
I don't know how that company managed to sell any product at all.
but then the company started selling music files that you could upload (SOOOO inflexible) right there on the device, but again hampered by the need to harness the device to a computer.
hold on, let me pause and ask everyone else, remember i said the TV had replaced the fire as the focus of the modern living room, can anyone see a time when the TV will be replace by the computer as most people focus point?
what? thats already happening?
wow, those younger generations, ha, always so up to date.
but anyway, I believe somehow the company selling the music files, managed to JUST make enough money via that "inflexible" venture, that they decided to sell video files.. wow, like how dumb are they, it didn't work out well with the music files, or did it?
but they also started selling a set tp box for people to use with their TVs.. remember those, they used to be the focus of peoples living rooms, and like people are SO ok with that, they know how to use a TV with a STB, they have done it for years, it might be inflexible, but they got used to it...
so why wouldn't it work with another STB selling content, in the same way? I mean, that company that does it, sort of made a profit..? right?
i even found out that the same company lets you download those music files TO BUY! wirelessly!!
yes, thats right, on the latest versions of the audio and video player you can download music files over the air
again with that progress thing.
so OVER TIME they got less and less "inflexible" as the technology progressed.
and, guess what, all along people just got more and more USED to this level of inconvenience and irritating inflexibility, because in the long run, that company was right.
the pipes feeding the data into people homes became larger and the compression got better, and more and more people took it for granted, until the focus turned AWAY from the CD walkman.
some of us used one of those audio and video devices early on, and could easily SEE the potential, because oddly enough, DESPITE its apparent "inflexibility" we found it convenient to use*
imagine that boys and girls.
Progress is an amazing thing.
if there is a moral to the story, I guess its that you shouldn't get in the way of progress and rant and rave that the old ways were the best, but every generation will have someone who doesn't see the benefit in anything new, and cite their experience as the basis for wisdom.. sadly its often not worth the papyrus its scraped onto.
I wonder if I will rant and rave that music file players are best, at some point in the future, when brain wave implants can put you right there on stage as it happened?
hope not.
* just as I am finding a certain STB at the moment as I feed it with video files, just as I fed music files to an audio device a while back.
Walter people are simply not going to go for a medium that doesn't allow you to play your file on your tv in the living room or loan it to a friend so he can play it on his tv in the living room ( or computer or wahtever ). This is what you have with physical media right now and have had for say oh 30 years or so.
That's what it has to replace. Now really I've been all over this in this thread are you really expecting me to believe that you haven't understood?
You download said movie, tv show, whatever. Ok it's on your computer. But legally you can't transfer the file to another medium to loan it out or play it on another device without special equipment ( like Apple TV ).
For this to be widely accepted everyone would have to have Apple TV or the same device. Get it now?
And no people aren't going to just give way to what the companies want. Especially since they've already had that flexiblity. They want what they want or they won't buy it.
Quote:
hold on, let me pause and ask everyone else, remember i said the TV had replaced the fire as the focus of the modern living room, can anyone see a time when the TV will be replace by the computer as most people focus point?
This is what has been known for about 25 years as " Convergence ". It's a concept that's been talked about but never quite realized for a long time now. I believe it will happen someday where your TV is also you computer and stereo. It just hasn't happened yet.
A few things to be worked out with all those different companies.
Once again ( and I hope this is the last time ) I didn't say this won't happen! It'll just take years to work out the details. Right now you can't remove your vieo file from iTunes ( so you can play it in the living room or loan it out ) unless it's to your iPod or Apple TV which aren't ubiquitous items yet. So expecting this to replace all physical media is an unproven stretch right now. Maybe someday. But it'll take years. That's all I'm saying. Sorry if you don't like that scenero.
I just had to stop to open the front door my friend was returning my DVD copy of the second season of " The Outer Limitis ". How timely!
Walter people are simply not going to go for a medium that doesn't allow you to play your file on your tv in the living room or loan it to a friend so he can play it on his tv in the living room ( or computer or wahtever ). This is what you have with physical media right now and have had for say oh 30 years or so.
That's what it has to replace.
Indeed. My wife and I tend to let my sister-in-law & her husband, as well as my inlaws borrow our DVD purchases. In fact, sometimes we buy the DVD version instead of the Blu-Ray version since none of the people we know have Blu-Ray players yet (my wife and I own a PS3).
Our relatives, likewise, allow us to borrow their DVD acquisitions.
In the past we also sometimes did this with Netflix rentals or brick & mortar rentals.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac
You download said movie, tv show, whatever. Ok it's on your computer. But legally you can't transfer the file to another medium to loan it out or play it on another device without special equipment ( like Apple TV ).
Exactly. I come from a tech background and got the households of my sister-inlaw & her husband and my inlaws set up with Macs (not AppleTVs) connected to their HDTVs. They requested this for movie rentals. It's super easy and it works great.. unless you don't want to watch it on *that* particular Mac:
The problem is, if they rent the movie on the TV Mac, they can't transfer it to another Mac in their house -- only to an iPod.. and the iPod won't transfer it to another Mac because iPods want to format themselves for use by the "new" iTunes client it sees. And trying to share the movie from one household's Mac to another household's Mac, even when using the same iTunes account, the rental wont work.
What a huge pain in the ASCII.
Until disc-less video is restricted only to the logged in account and not the hardware its downloaded on, physical media sales will continue. Sure, account-only restrictions allows a whole family tree to "share" one account, but who cares? The studio is still getting some money for the initial video purchase or rental.
Walter people are simply not going to go for a medium that doesn't allow you to play your file on your tv in the living room or loan it to a friend so he can play it on his tv in the living room ( or computer or wahtever ). This is what you have with physical media right now and have had for say oh 30 years or so.
Yeah Walter, don't be silly.
People won't accept downloads because they can't loan them out to a friend.
I mean, I used to lend my CDs out to all my friends, and now that the iTunes store is the #1 music vendor...oh wait...
They are all rolling-out some kind of download initiative. Some are terrified it will cannibalize the DVD sales. But they all know where this is headed.
Sony got their ass-kicked out of the music player space because they refused to acknowledge download. They are not going to let that happen again.
BluRay is a shoe-in with collectors who will pay $100 for a 3 disk pack which has enough picture resolution to read the GPS coordinates on Anglelina's arm tattos or listen to Micheal Bay mouth breathing through Transformers. But even hardcore collectors are not going to replace their entire DVD collection with Blu Rays.
Collectors will always do that stuff. Which sort of makes them irrelevant. Most movies are watched once. Which makes the mass-market all about providing affordable rental with a good quality image.
So the real trick is building a download strategy that can compete with the fastest growing movie source: Piracy.
They are all rolling-out some kind of download initiative. Some are terrified it will cannibalize the DVD sales. But they all know where this is headed.
Sony got their ass-kicked out of the music player space because they refused to acknowledge download. They are not going to let that happen again.
BluRay is a shoe-in with collectors who will pay $100 for a 3 disk pack which has enough picture resolution to read the GPS coordinates on Anglelina's arm tattos or listen to Micheal Bay mouth breathing through Transformers. But even hardcore collectors are not going to replace their entire DVD collection with Blu Rays.
Collectors will always do that stuff. Which sort of makes them irrelevant. Most movies are watched once. Which makes the mass-market all about providing affordable rental with a good quality image.
So the real trick is building a download strategy that can compete with the fastest growing movie source: Piracy.
C.
Quote:
Collectors will always do that stuff. Which sort of makes them irrelevant.
Since there are so many of us please explain how? You left that part out.
Quote:
Most movies are watched once.
By some people. Some watch them many times. It's a mind set where one side can't see the other's point of view. Some pull that favorite movie or TV show anytime they get the urge. Just like CDs or books.
And none of your links says anything different. All they say is that they'll start a download service. Lots of companies are. But when it only gives you a rental or limitied enviroment people will still by physical media.
Quote:
But even hardcore collectors are not going to replace their entire DVD collection with Blu Rays.
No we won't. Sony realized that so that's why the players do both BD and DVD.
Comments
Remember bandwidth isn't the only issue.
He's saying that IPTV/Streaming will reach mainstream in 3-5 years. Yes, bandwidth isn't the only issue but with studios releasing content day and date with DVD to both downloads and cable there is no studio issue.
NPD numbers for the Month of December 2008
PS3 726K
X360 1.44M
Ouch. Does anyone have sales number for total bluray players? i'm going to have to say bluray is not doing very well right now. Oh, and for those of you glamoring over PS3's sudden rise in sales mid year
Well that hasn't been their pattern. And can site several historical items.
But here's something more recent and a good example.
http://www.webtvwire.com/one-stop-sh...etflix-itunes/
Expecting them to release their grip totally and treat online downloads the same way they do physical media will probably take awhile.
Incorrect assumption. Studios like download because it affords them more control over thier content not less. Where do you think pirated content comes from anyway? Half copies of low bitrate iTunes movies? Or rips of DVDs and BluRay?
They don't particularly care for physical media the way it works today.
In any case, it's not even an article relevant to the discussion. It's saying that the MPAA website is doomed to failure because pirate sites are cheaper and have no DRM. The fact that torrenting movies is pretty common for some folks indicates that the studios WILL move to support legal downloads even more because a low bitrate iTunes HD movie is a heck of a lot better to have out in the wild than a high quality rip off Blu-Ray.
The DRM is no different anyway. Do you have managed copy on Blu-Ray? No? At best you have low-rez digitial copy.
Now I've heard some say here they'll be forced to change. How? They own the stuff. You are at their whim. If they were moving faster than the RIAA you would be able to burn video from iTunes the way you do music.
Yes, they own the stuff. Therefore they sell on their terms. We buy on our terms. In the middle money gets made. They will continue to sell physical media but they will also sell downloads and it will become mainstream in 3-5 years if not earlier.
Ouch. Does anyone have sales number for total bluray players? i'm going to have to say bluray is not doing very well right now. Oh, and for those of you glamoring over PS3's sudden rise in sales mid year
10M for all Blu-Ray players. Includes PS3...
...Now I've heard some say here they'll be forced to change. How? They own the stuff. You are at their whim. If they were moving faster than the RIAA you would be able to burn video from iTunes the way you do music.
...
My take is that that they are being forced to change in the same way the music industry did. Video is just more bandwidth intensive so it is happening at a later date. This time around they've got the music industry as an example of what happens if you don't pursue online distribution. Other companies move in and start taking over the pie.
Edit: I forgot to mention the how...
P2P and specifically torrents are close to doing to video what they already did to audio. This time around though, there are more legal, online alternatives. The intellectual property holders have wised up a bit. (just a bit) They just might succeed in making the legal alternatives appealing enough that piracy never goes completely mainstream. Without those alternatives, infringing geeks will eventually work the out the kinks, they'll make it such that even idiots can watch torrented video on their living room TV. Right now it still requires more knowledge and tinkering than the average schmoe is willing to devote. The content owners realize this after having learned an expensive lesson. They'll still drag their feet, kicking and screaming. But now they realize that there is a breaking point where they lose control of the industry.
As the percentage of homes with network-video-players increase (PS3, xbox, etc), and UPnP media servers become common place (built into routers with a USB attached HDs, or a home NAS), video piracy will become mainstream unless the legal alternatives are convenient and cheap. For a lot of consumers, that means being able to watch anything instantly by browsing an online video store using their TV's remote. Not all, but a huge portion of the market for sure. Some people are willing to drive to a store and buy a physical disc. Others want to lounge around on their couch and instantly watch anything, even if not at 40mps.
10M for all Blu-Ray players. Includes PS3...
So about half are PS3's
I have.
Recording companies, Movie Studios, Game Makers all want to go to download because they...
1.. Can cut consumer prices
2.. Can get impulse purchases
3.. Get more revenue per purchase
4.. Cut out the middle man
C.
About the movie studios links please.
My take is that that they are being forced to change in the same way the music industry did. Video is just more bandwidth intensive so it is happening at a later date. This time around they've got the music industry as an example of what happens if you don't pursue online distribution. Other companies move in and start taking over the pie.
Edit: I forgot to mention the how...
P2P and specifically torrents are close to doing to video what they already did to audio. This time around though, there are more legal, online alternatives. The intellectual property holders have wised up a bit. (just a bit) They just might succeed in making the legal alternatives appealing enough that piracy never goes completely mainstream. Without those alternatives, infringing geeks will eventually work the out the kinks, they'll make it such that even idiots can watch torrented video on their living room TV. Right now it still requires more knowledge and tinkering than the average schmoe is willing to devote. The content owners realize this after having learned an expensive lesson. They'll still drag their feet, kicking and screaming. But now they realize that there is a breaking point where they lose control of the industry.
As the percentage of homes with network-video-players increase (PS3, xbox, etc), and UPnP media servers become common place (built into routers with a USB attached HDs, or a home NAS), video piracy will become mainstream unless the legal alternatives are convenient and cheap. For a lot of consumers, that means being able to watch anything instantly by browsing an online video store using their TV's remote. Not all, but a huge portion of the market for sure. Some people are willing to drive to a store and buy a physical disc. Others want to lounge around on their couch and instantly watch anything, even if not at 40mps.
They just might succeed in making the legal alternatives appealing enough that piracy never goes completely mainstream. Without those alternatives, infringing geeks will eventually work the out the kinks, they'll make it such that even idiots can watch torrented video on their living room TV. Right now it still requires more knowledge and tinkering than the average schmoe is willing to devote. The content owners realize this after having learned an expensive lesson. They'll still drag their feet, kicking and screaming. But now they realize that there is a breaking point where they lose control of the industry.
Any evidence to support this?
I do think this will happen but knowing people and the movie industry and their past record of " letting go " I just think it'll take awhile for the whole ball of wax.
Incorrect assumption. Studios like download because it affords them more control over thier content not less. Where do you think pirated content comes from anyway? Half copies of low bitrate iTunes movies? Or rips of DVDs and BluRay?
They don't particularly care for physical media the way it works today.
In any case, it's not even an article relevant to the discussion. It's saying that the MPAA website is doomed to failure because pirate sites are cheaper and have no DRM. The fact that torrenting movies is pretty common for some folks indicates that the studios WILL move to support legal downloads even more because a low bitrate iTunes HD movie is a heck of a lot better to have out in the wild than a high quality rip off Blu-Ray.
The DRM is no different anyway. Do you have managed copy on Blu-Ray? No? At best you have low-rez digitial copy.
Yes, they own the stuff. Therefore they sell on their terms. We buy on our terms. In the middle money gets made. They will continue to sell physical media but they will also sell downloads and it will become mainstream in 3-5 years if not earlier.
Studios like download because it affords them more control over thier content not less.
Yes but will consumers as a whole go for that? I don't think so. Especially since they've had it the other way for so long.
In the mean time they'll just go down and buy a disc.
Yes but will consumers as a whole go for that? I don't think so. Especially since they've had it the other way for so long.
In the mean time they'll just go down and buy a disc.
I rent movie (via iTunes) now, so my risk is $3-$4 if the movie sucks. If the movie is good, I will likely go buy the DVD/Blu-Ray version so I can enjoy it anytime I want.
In the future, I think if people really enjoy a movie, they will buy it on whatever physical disc/drive format that is available for offline use. If no such offline format is available, they will have it "pre-downloaded" to every device they own that they might want to watch it on.
I rent movie (via iTunes) now, so my risk is $3-$4 if the movie sucks. If the movie is good, I will likely go buy the DVD/Blu-Ray version so I can enjoy it anytime I want.
In the future, I think if people really enjoy a movie, they will buy it on whatever physical disc/drive format that is available for offline use. If no such offline format is available, they will have it "pre-downloaded" to every device they own that they might want to watch it on.
A good idea and solution. It might take awhile to be implimented for every device though.
But yes this kind of flexibility is basic.
A good idea and solution. It might take awhile to be implimented for every device though.
But yes this kind of flexibility is basic.
By your terms, the flexibility can not be there because the download service is not feasible for today's infrastructure, right?
It's nice to see that your views are more flexible, now. I guess what people say about old dog and new tricks are wrong.
By your terms, the flexibility can not be there because the download service is not feasible for today's infrastructure, right?
It's nice to see that your views are more flexible, now. I guess what people say about old dog and new tricks are wrong.
No. I'm saying if you can't use the media without the flexibilty that you now have with a disc ( and people are already used to ) they're not going to go for something that has less. It sounds like you're taking to issues and trying to make them into one.
It has nothing to do with age ( other than giving one a little insight in to how these things go in this arena ). It has everything to do with what the consumer wants.
I never said I was against this. I never said it wouldn't be a neat idea. I've downloaded many torrents myself and videos on iTunes. It just has a few things to be worked out for practicalities sake. The technological part of this will go faster than the dealing with people part ( the consumer / The movie studios ). That's why I'm being conservative about this and saying give it 10 years to come to full fruition.
Hey if I'm wrong I'm wrong. But I don't think so.
I'm not going to actually argue with Jim, against his logic, I'd only fail.
this flexibility you talk about, what is it exactly?
is it playing a file on an STB people have been doing that for years, watching movies on a TV is the next best thing to a home cinema projector. (is the next best thing to a cinema screen, is the next best thing to a play etc.)
but hold on, both of those are large stationary objects, around which most modern living rooms focus, where in the past they focused round the fire.
Ahh, so it must be flexibility in terms of computers, yes, they ARE recent, and laptops even more so.
But hold on, people got used to those, and used them to download those apparently inflexible files.
gee, that doesn't sound right
oh wait a minute, perhaps its flexibility in terms of a portable device that would allow for audio and video playback, I think there is a large company that makes those. ?? Unlike a cassette walkman CD or mini disc player where one is hampered by physical media, limited by how many physical storage containers you can carry under one arm.
this Audio and Video playback unit started off letting you carry around 100's of albums in something only slightly larger than a cassette box.
wow, isnt progress amazing!
oh, but then by Jims logic THAT isnt flexible, because people needed to attach to a computer FIRST, then and only then, once they had filled up their media player, did it remotely look flexible.
so, it couldn't be that either... could it?
even though that same company sold a few of those devices, it was REALLY limited in its flexibility. and more and more people who needed a portable music solution STUCK to their CD walkman and case of CDs when they , say, went on vacation, or jogging.
I don't know how that company managed to sell any product at all.
but then the company started selling music files that you could upload (SOOOO inflexible) right there on the device, but again hampered by the need to harness the device to a computer.
hold on, let me pause and ask everyone else, remember i said the TV had replaced the fire as the focus of the modern living room, can anyone see a time when the TV will be replace by the computer as most people focus point?
what? thats already happening?
wow, those younger generations, ha, always so up to date.
but anyway, I believe somehow the company selling the music files, managed to JUST make enough money via that "inflexible" venture, that they decided to sell video files.. wow, like how dumb are they, it didn't work out well with the music files, or did it?
but they also started selling a set tp box for people to use with their TVs.. remember those, they used to be the focus of peoples living rooms, and like people are SO ok with that, they know how to use a TV with a STB, they have done it for years, it might be inflexible, but they got used to it...
so why wouldn't it work with another STB selling content, in the same way? I mean, that company that does it, sort of made a profit..? right?
i even found out that the same company lets you download those music files TO BUY! wirelessly!!
yes, thats right, on the latest versions of the audio and video player you can download music files over the air
again with that progress thing.
so OVER TIME they got less and less "inflexible" as the technology progressed.
and, guess what, all along people just got more and more USED to this level of inconvenience and irritating inflexibility, because in the long run, that company was right.
the pipes feeding the data into people homes became larger and the compression got better, and more and more people took it for granted, until the focus turned AWAY from the CD walkman.
some of us used one of those audio and video devices early on, and could easily SEE the potential, because oddly enough, DESPITE its apparent "inflexibility" we found it convenient to use*
imagine that boys and girls.
Progress is an amazing thing.
if there is a moral to the story, I guess its that you shouldn't get in the way of progress and rant and rave that the old ways were the best, but every generation will have someone who doesn't see the benefit in anything new, and cite their experience as the basis for wisdom.. sadly its often not worth the papyrus its scraped onto.
I wonder if I will rant and rave that music file players are best, at some point in the future, when brain wave implants can put you right there on stage as it happened?
hope not.
* just as I am finding a certain STB at the moment as I feed it with video files, just as I fed music files to an audio device a while back.
Ok, I'll bite again.
I'm not going to actually argue with Jim, against his logic, I'd only fail.
this flexibility you talk about, what is it exactly?
is it playing a file on an STB people have been doing that for years, watching movies on a TV is the next best thing to a home cinema projector. (is the next best thing to a cinema screen, is the next best thing to a play etc.)
but hold on, both of those are large stationary objects, around which most modern living rooms focus, where in the past they focused round the fire.
Ahh, so it must be flexibility in terms of computers, yes, they ARE recent, and laptops even more so.
But hold on, people got used to those, and used them to download those apparently inflexible files.
gee, that doesn't sound right
oh wait a minute, perhaps its flexibility in terms of a portable device that would allow for audio and video playback, I think there is a large company that makes those. ?? Unlike a cassette walkman CD or mini disc player where one is hampered by physical media, limited by how many physical storage containers you can carry under one arm.
this Audio and Video playback unit started off letting you carry around 100's of albums in something only slightly larger than a cassette box.
wow, isnt progress amazing!
oh, but then by Jims logic THAT isnt flexible, because people needed to attach to a computer FIRST, then and only then, once they had filled up their media player, did it remotely look flexible.
so, it couldn't be that either... could it?
even though that same company sold a few of those devices, it was REALLY limited in its flexibility. and more and more people who needed a portable music solution STUCK to their CD walkman and case of CDs when they , say, went on vacation, or jogging.
I don't know how that company managed to sell any product at all.
but then the company started selling music files that you could upload (SOOOO inflexible) right there on the device, but again hampered by the need to harness the device to a computer.
hold on, let me pause and ask everyone else, remember i said the TV had replaced the fire as the focus of the modern living room, can anyone see a time when the TV will be replace by the computer as most people focus point?
what? thats already happening?
wow, those younger generations, ha, always so up to date.
but anyway, I believe somehow the company selling the music files, managed to JUST make enough money via that "inflexible" venture, that they decided to sell video files.. wow, like how dumb are they, it didn't work out well with the music files, or did it?
but they also started selling a set tp box for people to use with their TVs.. remember those, they used to be the focus of peoples living rooms, and like people are SO ok with that, they know how to use a TV with a STB, they have done it for years, it might be inflexible, but they got used to it...
so why wouldn't it work with another STB selling content, in the same way? I mean, that company that does it, sort of made a profit..? right?
i even found out that the same company lets you download those music files TO BUY! wirelessly!!
yes, thats right, on the latest versions of the audio and video player you can download music files over the air
again with that progress thing.
so OVER TIME they got less and less "inflexible" as the technology progressed.
and, guess what, all along people just got more and more USED to this level of inconvenience and irritating inflexibility, because in the long run, that company was right.
the pipes feeding the data into people homes became larger and the compression got better, and more and more people took it for granted, until the focus turned AWAY from the CD walkman.
some of us used one of those audio and video devices early on, and could easily SEE the potential, because oddly enough, DESPITE its apparent "inflexibility" we found it convenient to use*
imagine that boys and girls.
Progress is an amazing thing.
if there is a moral to the story, I guess its that you shouldn't get in the way of progress and rant and rave that the old ways were the best, but every generation will have someone who doesn't see the benefit in anything new, and cite their experience as the basis for wisdom.. sadly its often not worth the papyrus its scraped onto.
I wonder if I will rant and rave that music file players are best, at some point in the future, when brain wave implants can put you right there on stage as it happened?
hope not.
* just as I am finding a certain STB at the moment as I feed it with video files, just as I fed music files to an audio device a while back.
Walter people are simply not going to go for a medium that doesn't allow you to play your file on your tv in the living room or loan it to a friend so he can play it on his tv in the living room ( or computer or wahtever ). This is what you have with physical media right now and have had for say oh 30 years or so.
That's what it has to replace. Now really I've been all over this in this thread are you really expecting me to believe that you haven't understood?
You download said movie, tv show, whatever. Ok it's on your computer. But legally you can't transfer the file to another medium to loan it out or play it on another device without special equipment ( like Apple TV ).
For this to be widely accepted everyone would have to have Apple TV or the same device. Get it now?
And no people aren't going to just give way to what the companies want. Especially since they've already had that flexiblity. They want what they want or they won't buy it.
hold on, let me pause and ask everyone else, remember i said the TV had replaced the fire as the focus of the modern living room, can anyone see a time when the TV will be replace by the computer as most people focus point?
This is what has been known for about 25 years as " Convergence ". It's a concept that's been talked about but never quite realized for a long time now. I believe it will happen someday where your TV is also you computer and stereo. It just hasn't happened yet.
A few things to be worked out with all those different companies.
Once again ( and I hope this is the last time ) I didn't say this won't happen! It'll just take years to work out the details. Right now you can't remove your vieo file from iTunes ( so you can play it in the living room or loan it out ) unless it's to your iPod or Apple TV which aren't ubiquitous items yet. So expecting this to replace all physical media is an unproven stretch right now. Maybe someday. But it'll take years. That's all I'm saying. Sorry if you don't like that scenero.
I just had to stop to open the front door my friend was returning my DVD copy of the second season of " The Outer Limitis ". How timely!
Walter people are simply not going to go for a medium that doesn't allow you to play your file on your tv in the living room or loan it to a friend so he can play it on his tv in the living room ( or computer or wahtever ). This is what you have with physical media right now and have had for say oh 30 years or so.
That's what it has to replace.
Indeed. My wife and I tend to let my sister-in-law & her husband, as well as my inlaws borrow our DVD purchases. In fact, sometimes we buy the DVD version instead of the Blu-Ray version since none of the people we know have Blu-Ray players yet (my wife and I own a PS3).
Our relatives, likewise, allow us to borrow their DVD acquisitions.
In the past we also sometimes did this with Netflix rentals or brick & mortar rentals.
You download said movie, tv show, whatever. Ok it's on your computer. But legally you can't transfer the file to another medium to loan it out or play it on another device without special equipment ( like Apple TV ).
Exactly. I come from a tech background and got the households of my sister-inlaw & her husband and my inlaws set up with Macs (not AppleTVs) connected to their HDTVs. They requested this for movie rentals. It's super easy and it works great.. unless you don't want to watch it on *that* particular Mac:
The problem is, if they rent the movie on the TV Mac, they can't transfer it to another Mac in their house -- only to an iPod.. and the iPod won't transfer it to another Mac because iPods want to format themselves for use by the "new" iTunes client it sees. And trying to share the movie from one household's Mac to another household's Mac, even when using the same iTunes account, the rental wont work.
What a huge pain in the ASCII.
Until disc-less video is restricted only to the logged in account and not the hardware its downloaded on, physical media sales will continue. Sure, account-only restrictions allows a whole family tree to "share" one account, but who cares? The studio is still getting some money for the initial video purchase or rental.
Walter people are simply not going to go for a medium that doesn't allow you to play your file on your tv in the living room or loan it to a friend so he can play it on his tv in the living room ( or computer or wahtever ). This is what you have with physical media right now and have had for say oh 30 years or so.
Yeah Walter, don't be silly.
People won't accept downloads because they can't loan them out to a friend.
I mean, I used to lend my CDs out to all my friends, and now that the iTunes store is the #1 music vendor...oh wait...
About the movie studios links please.
The Big Six are
Warner
Paramount
Disney
Sony
Universal
Fox
http://www.engadget.com/2008/06/26/s...s-this-summer/
http://blogs.pcworld.com/digitalworl..._download.html
http://www.marketingvox.com/fox_to_o...ce_ign-022398/
They are all rolling-out some kind of download initiative. Some are terrified it will cannibalize the DVD sales. But they all know where this is headed.
Sony got their ass-kicked out of the music player space because they refused to acknowledge download. They are not going to let that happen again.
BluRay is a shoe-in with collectors who will pay $100 for a 3 disk pack which has enough picture resolution to read the GPS coordinates on Anglelina's arm tattos or listen to Micheal Bay mouth breathing through Transformers. But even hardcore collectors are not going to replace their entire DVD collection with Blu Rays.
Collectors will always do that stuff. Which sort of makes them irrelevant. Most movies are watched once. Which makes the mass-market all about providing affordable rental with a good quality image.
So the real trick is building a download strategy that can compete with the fastest growing movie source: Piracy.
C.
Yeah Walter, don't be silly.
People won't accept downloads because they can't loan them out to a friend.
I mean, I used to lend my CDs out to all my friends, and now that the iTunes store is the #1 music vendor...oh wait...
Yes now that they are you still burn a CD to loan to your friends because you can.
You just can't do that with videos.
Frank give it up!
The Big Six are
Warner
Paramount
Disney
Sony
Universal
Fox
http://www.engadget.com/2008/06/26/s...s-this-summer/
http://blogs.pcworld.com/digitalworl..._download.html
http://www.marketingvox.com/fox_to_o...ce_ign-022398/
They are all rolling-out some kind of download initiative. Some are terrified it will cannibalize the DVD sales. But they all know where this is headed.
Sony got their ass-kicked out of the music player space because they refused to acknowledge download. They are not going to let that happen again.
BluRay is a shoe-in with collectors who will pay $100 for a 3 disk pack which has enough picture resolution to read the GPS coordinates on Anglelina's arm tattos or listen to Micheal Bay mouth breathing through Transformers. But even hardcore collectors are not going to replace their entire DVD collection with Blu Rays.
Collectors will always do that stuff. Which sort of makes them irrelevant. Most movies are watched once. Which makes the mass-market all about providing affordable rental with a good quality image.
So the real trick is building a download strategy that can compete with the fastest growing movie source: Piracy.
C.
Collectors will always do that stuff. Which sort of makes them irrelevant.
Since there are so many of us please explain how? You left that part out.
Most movies are watched once.
By some people. Some watch them many times. It's a mind set where one side can't see the other's point of view. Some pull that favorite movie or TV show anytime they get the urge. Just like CDs or books.
And none of your links says anything different. All they say is that they'll start a download service. Lots of companies are. But when it only gives you a rental or limitied enviroment people will still by physical media.
But even hardcore collectors are not going to replace their entire DVD collection with Blu Rays.
No we won't. Sony realized that so that's why the players do both BD and DVD.