Wonder if they could make it both touch-responsive and key-responsive. Maybe they could have the keyboard slide out and flex forward (design that some phones have).
It sounds like Apple doesn't want to be a "me-too" netbook lemming but netbooks are hot sellers right now. They have long battery life and they travel really well.
The touchpad product will do better if it's well under $800 (make it a distinct price range away from the cheapest MacBook) and give it some kind of attached keyboard -- maybe a keyboard that can be smartly hidden away for people who really only want touch interface.
I've been wrong before (e.g. who will pay the same price for a green or blue nano that they'd pay for a black nano with twice the memory). Guess we'll see.
I see that's where we differ in opinion. I would expect the OS to be derived from iPhone OS for a multitude of reasons. First and foremost, Apple can't ensure that third party developers will develop touch friendly interfaces on their programs if they are written for a desktop OS. With iPhone OS touch friendly will be a given. Apple is huge on the user experience and I don't think a desktop operating system will provide a satisfactory user experience as long as the primary means of input is a mouse a keyboard.
This thought has crossed my mind, but in the end I keep asking myself what scenarios would cause one to buy a tablet over an iPhone / iPod Touch? The larger screen? For what? Productivity? Watching movies? Browsing the web? While I'd certainly admit there's plenty of room for growth (no pun intended) in those areas on the iPhone/iPod Touch, I feel as though in order to distinguish it enough from just being "a big iPod" the compromise would have to end up more on the side of being Mac-like than being iPhone-like...
But then again, maybe people are just looking for a "big iPod." As someone with a prosumer mindset, what I think makes sense is becoming less and less of what Apple actually ends up implementing, so who knows?
Okay, did. Interesting, but I am not clear how that relates directly to my ruminations. Unless it's to bolster my informal hypothesis that great products (=art) can only result from the presence in the system of a great artist (=Steve). Help me out.
you just said 13" is as small as you should go for a laptop. How do you know smaller doesn't work? Because you have seen what happens when it goes smaller.
In this case, you haven't seen the reverse, what happens when an iPod touch goes larger and has 3G or faster networking built in. I think it'll make an awesome laptop alternative. It'll be a heck of a lot lighter and easier to use than the pervasive netbooks on the market.
And from your other post, why do you keep suggesting a $900 price. It'll be in the $400 to $500 ballpark plus a data plan. And the biggest issue Apple will have is they won't be able to make them fast enough.
Plus a data plan? Here in Canada that's a problem because our data plans cost a small fortune. This is supposed to be a good thing?
Look, netbooks, flawed though they may be, are a Godsend to a lot of students who really don't have much cash to work with and who like the idea of a very portable device like your typical netbook. Frankly, the shortcomings of netbooks are greatly exaggerated. They do serve a purpose and that Apple can't offer any improvement on the formula on account of they can't deliver any better an experience at a similar price point, well that's just a segment that Apple can't participate in. It's that simple.
Haven't all forms been predicted? For at least a few decades even!
I guess. But I don't recall anyone accurately predicting how the iPhone actually turned out, so that should serve as a lesson to us. I'm hearing what sounds to me like contradictory statements. The concept that they haven't done a tablet computer yet being taken as evidence that they probably won't any time soon really strikes me as wrong, since we know the last two blockbuster products from Apple went through years of development before they became products. Apple will release this beast when they think they've got something nobody else has, when they believe it's sexy as hell, and defines a new product niche they can exploit -- and not before, if Steve has anything to do with it. The evidence suggests they are getting close.
You don't remember people predicting a touch screen phone? I seem to remember tons of those predictions, along with click wheel, T9, stylus augmented, and qwerty predictions.
Also, I don't think anyone is basing their "tablets are unlikely" argument soley on "apple hasn't ever sold a tablet". Seems more like a strawman to me.
As for Apple getting close to releasing a tablet... I'd say the newton was close as well.
But yeah, i get where you're coming from. Technology is advancing and the iPhone interface is one more piece of the puzzle.
I see the form factor as the biggest reason why tablets aren't popular. Technology can't change the form factor unless perhaps we figure in a far fetched digital-scroll scenario. Tablets forgo a physical keyboard yet still can't be put in a pocket. Unless humans undergo rapid evolution, I predict that tablets will always be limited to auxiliary/limited use computers or computers for specific niche professions. Those niches are significant, but relatively small compared to the size of the entire computing industry.
Steve jobs is brilliant but there are also brilliant people at Microsoft (God only knows why they are there...)
That in itself does not make a brilliant company.
It is the culture, ethos and management at Apple that allows great things to happen. that is the fundamental reason. not one man - Steve Jobs.
If steve Jobs were not at the helm Apple would continue to be brilliant until that culture, ethos and management evaporated.
Apple's ethos is about being critical (as in to critique) and to not succumb to mediocrity and this is where Steve Jobs has been instrumental in instilling that culture in to this company. Without that Apple would be generally mediocre just like MS. Jonathon Ive would not be able to deliver fantastic industrial design without that culture.
Steve Jobs does not make the TV ads, nor does he specify the finish on the aluminium on macs, or figure out how to make a consistent GUI.
He more than likely critiques a lot of work at Apple.
Steve is directly responsible for the ethos of the company and critical hires who he entrusts to pass on that ethos to every person they subsequently hire beneath them at all levels.
Steve left the company in great shape when he was recovering and no doubt they would continue to make market leading products in established markets for Apple.
Steve is brilliant at creating market penetration of new products for Apple. Once done he moves on and does come back to sign off on all their products aesthetic appeal while relying on his incredibly talented staff to manage the engineering and marketing.
You don't remember people predicting a touch screen phone? I seem to remember tons of those predictions, along with click wheel, T9, stylus augmented, and qwerty predictions.
A touch screen phone does not make an iPhone. No one predcted what the iPhone would be. Half of those touch screen phone ideas had a clickwheel on the back because the iPhone had to simply be an iPod+phone and iPods came with clickwheels. This just shows how narrow sighted we are. We can't conceptuallize new ideas, we just modify and ocmbine existing ones. An Apple tablet will probably not be anything like any of us visualized. Except me of course
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I see the form factor as the biggest reason why tablets aren't popular. Technology can't change the form factor unless perhaps we figure in a far fetched digital-scroll scenario. Tablets forgo a physical keyboard yet still can't be put in a pocket. Unless humans undergo rapid evolution, I predict that tablets will always be limited to auxiliary/limited use computers or computers for specific niche professions. Those niches are significant, but relatively small compared to the size of the entire computing industry.
I see the lack of a proper touch OS and lack of an enticing purpose have doomed past tablets. These are both obstacles I think Apple can overcome. I agree that tablets will remain auxiliary computers for the time being, but please consider that netbooks generally fall into the same category. Most people don't buy them as a primary computer. The tablet has a large potential market to draw from: netbooks, ebooks, education, business, entertainment, etc. And draw from it Apple will.
I respectfully, disagree. The guy in charge sets the tone of the company and that's Steve Jobs. One of the elements is he has been able to corral the 'nerds' (no disrespect intended) that write the sw and design the hardware and make them produce high quality usable products, like the iPhone. Just look at the crap the other companies were producing and getting a way with before the iPhone. Think MS mobile, Symbian, Motorola, and Palm, RIM. They were making so much money and yet were satisfied with substandard user experiences mainly to their clumsy and second rate software and hardware.
actually you "respectfully" agree with me that "The guy in charge sets the tone of the company and that's Steve Jobs. One of the elements is he has been able to corral the 'nerds''.
it's the same with Ive. He does not design everything. He has a huge team around him. I actually know what I am talking about here as a designer. It is never a one man show.
Steve is directly responsible for the ethos of the company and critical hires who he entrusts to pass on that ethos to every person they subsequently hire beneath them at all levels.
Steve left the company in great shape when he was recovering and no doubt they would continue to make market leading products in established markets for Apple.
Steve is brilliant at creating market penetration of new products for Apple. Once done he moves on and does come back to sign off on all their products aesthetic appeal while relying on his incredibly talented staff to manage the engineering and marketing.
yes steve is responsible for the ethos..... I said that.
no steve does not create the market penetration. He does not personally staff retail centers and so on. It is Apple's staff that does that with Steve overseeing.
Steve is brilliant but it takes more than one person.
You don't remember people predicting a touch screen phone? I seem to remember tons of those predictions, along with click wheel, T9, stylus augmented, and qwerty predictions.
I remember all kinds of guesses, but I also remember how much surprise the actual products generated when they were released.
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Also, I don't think anyone is basing their "tablets are unlikely" argument soley on "apple hasn't ever sold a tablet". Seems more like a strawman to me.
Perhaps not solely, but...
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Originally Posted by Clive At Five
I used to be an iTablet hopeful... then I woke up and smelled reality.
This is Apple we're talking about. Since when have they given us anything we actually wanted? We've begged for a headless iMac. We've begged for an xMac. We've begged for a DVR. We've begged for a Tablet. We've begged for an iTunes subscription service.
The only "prayer" Apple has answered was for the iPhone, and we begged for nearly a decade before we finally got it... and even then we had to beg for an open platform, which we still don't have.
Trust me, boys and girls. We won't be getting a Tablet any time soon.
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As for Apple getting close to releasing a tablet... I'd say the newton was close as well.
But yeah, i get where you're coming from. Technology is advancing and the iPhone interface is one more piece of the puzzle.
I see the form factor as the biggest reason why tablets aren't popular. Technology can't change the form factor unless perhaps we figure in a far fetched digital-scroll scenario. Tablets forgo a physical keyboard yet still can't be put in a pocket. Unless humans undergo rapid evolution, I predict that tablets will always be limited to auxiliary/limited use computers or computers for specific niche professions. Those niches are significant, but relatively small compared to the size of the entire computing industry.
Well, I think we should know now how Apple operates. They're always going to try to redefine categories, not chase existing categories. I expect the final product will include some of the features many have guessed at, but I am also expecting that the total package will exceed these expectations.
you just said 13" is as small as you should go for a laptop. How do you know smaller doesn't work? Because you have seen what happens when it goes smaller.
In this case, you haven't seen the reverse, what happens when an iPod touch goes larger and has 3G or faster networking built in. I think it'll make an awesome laptop alternative. It'll be a heck of a lot lighter and easier to use than the pervasive netbooks on the market.
I think a device that expands on the Touch is a logical next step for Apple. I'm not arguing against that. What I question, though, is the validity of that next step taking the Touch up to a 10-inch screen.
Keep in mind that going bigger causes the device to cost significantly more, not only because of the cost of the larger screen, but also because other aspects of the device will require upgrading. To take advantage of the much bigger screen you have to significantly increase the size of video files on account of a 10-inch screen using the Touch's current resolution would look rather awful. So now you need more hard drive capacity, more processing to handle bigger files, and a lot more battery capacity to power everything. Also, files created for the Touch will not scale up all that well on a 10-inch higher res screen.
In contrast, go up in screen size far more modestly and many of those issues are dramatically scaled back. In that scenario all that video content originally created for use on the Touch is still quite decent-looking on a 5-inch or 6-inch screen. The portability, though compromised, is not nearly as compromised as it would be on a device with a 10-inch screen.
There's another point to consider. You hold a hand-held device like the Touch or this proposed product much closer to you and as a result the perceived size of the screen changes. At the distance that this unit would be from you, 10 inches would be overkill. A 32-inch monitor looks not much different at about 3 feet away as a hand-held inches from your eyes would appear with a screen significantly smaller than 10 inches. Long before you get to 10 inches such a device would be akin to watching a movie on a big-screen TV.
I can and have given numerous reasons why a larger screen comes at a price. It's not a case of bigger is invariably better. Overkill is what has made the competition fall so far behind Apple and now, strangely, there seems to be this belief that Apple, despite having great success with a less-is-more philosophy, will suddenly reverse course and behave like the competition it has left so far behind. Where's the logic in that? Isn't this exactly the sort of irrational, ill-conceived approach that Jobs has steered Apple clear of all these years?
One unconfirmed rumor sees the light of day claiming Apple is getting its hands on a ton of 10-inch screens and many treat it like gospel. But something doesn't add up. If there is a new touch-based device in the pipeline, a 10-inch Touch likely isn't it.
If an Apple tablet is going to be a "Mac" (which I think many agree it should be) then it absolutely must be the same OS as is used on all other Macs. That said, it's a very different situation from the secretly-developed iPhone OS.
Besides, my point in mentioning it wasn't in regards to developing a tablet-focused OS, per se (though that is certainly a part of it). Since such an OS will most likely be actual Mac OS X, my point was about the efficiency of an OS capable of duplicating the Mac OS experience on a device that has the portability and battery life that one would expect of a tablet. Snow Leopard may be that OS, but it remains to be seen at this point. Seeing the benchmarks of a Snow Leopard-equipped netbook Hackintosh would be an amazing indicator of whether or not the new OS would be well-suited for tablet hardware.
It is not hard to imagine a tablet-friendly Mac OS X based on Snow Leopard.
But that's not the problem.
The problem is the existing Mac OS X software base. Pre-existing software is expecting to find a keyboard, a mouse and a large screen. Current Mac software is simply not designed to run under a whole new interface. Many programs would break. Most would be clunky. None would be designed to fit the new form-factor. In short, they would suck.
Creating an OS with a new interface is reasonable.
Expecting the current (and older) versions of Photoshop, Maya and Word to run perfectly without modification is not reasonable.
Apple are not going to launch a whole new platform and then turn away as users crash and burn their software on it. If we learned anything from the Origami Project it was that.
The success of the iPhone came about because the interface and the software was built specifically for the form factor.
My guess is this device (if it is real) will only run apps from the app store. And all of those apps will be purpose-built for this form-factor.
Thank god we have Steve to push the creative process at Apple.
And thank god I don't work for him!
I would love to work for him: 1) it means you are one of the top people of your field, 2) means you are making good money, 3) I'd like to be driven and part of such innovation and quality products... would learn a lot.
Once went there for lunch with a manger who knew someone who worked there, it was like walking in Shangri-La, the cafeteria alone was incredible. Several years later I interviewed at Apple, got a second interview and everything, but unfortunately (for me) they canceled the position.
I've heard stories about Steve Jobs and how difficult and demanding he can be, but I think most accept it as part of the culture and know he's the spoon that stirs the soup. He keeps them well employed and working for one of the top companies with high stock value and awesome products, from what I hear its a great place to work.
Steve jobs is brilliant but there are also brilliant people at Microsoft (God only knows why they are there...)
It is the culture, ethos and management at Apple that allows great things to happen. that is the fundamental reason. not one man - Steve Jobs.
If steve Jobs were not at the helm Apple would continue to be brilliant until that culture, ethos and management evaporated.
He more than likely critiques a lot of work at Apple.
I agree to some extent, but when he was kicked out in the 90's Apple almost went bankrupt. The stock was down to chump change, people were saying it was over for Apple. Then Jobs returned, they very soon after started making money and turned profitable again. Now with a stock price well over $150, hard to believe in just 1999 or so it was in the teens ($18-20).
Now people can argue this or that, but it is fact - with Jobs = success + innovation, without Jobs = failure, confusion, laziness, no vision or plan.
Jobs does not come up with all the ideas or make the commercials, but I guarantee you he see's, approves of, and perfects everything before it becomes public. And he is smart enough to hire top people to help him carry his vision and help him innovate. A leader does not have to do everything and a truly great leader (CEO, Founder) is smart enough to hire people around him to make him/her better and carry their vision and add to it.
Jobs is Apple and I worry when he does leave for good, Apple will slowly revert back to 1998 and being lost in the fog. I am not looking forward to that time, because we already allegedly have some employee's crying about things were "easier" with him gone these past months, that make the future seem scary. They need him to drive them and demand, sadly the inmates can't run the asylum on their own.
I ve just realized why Steve doesn't ask the people what they want in terms of new products and leads with his vision, because a lot if people want what they have and can understand and can't envision anything new. If they did they d all be leaders. But some people do and that's encouraging.
The iBook as I like to call the new tablet will revolutionasize computing and everyone will be hot on their heels to copy it. The book form that has been trusted and true for thousand hundred years will finally take the digital form it has to take and the little apple from Cupertino will again be responsible for this revolution.
I think a device that expands on the Touch is a logical next step for Apple. I'm not arguing against that. What I question, though, is the validity of that next step taking the Touch up to a 10-inch screen.
Keep in mind that going bigger causes the device to cost significantly more, not only because of the cost of the larger screen, but also because other aspects of the device will require upgrading. To take advantage of the much bigger screen you have to significantly increase the size of video files on account of a 10-inch screen using the Touch's current resolution would look rather awful. So now you need more hard drive capacity, more processing to handle bigger files, and a lot more battery capacity to power everything. Also, files created for the Touch will not scale up all that well on a 10-inch higher res screen.
I know you were quoting someone that said a 10" iPod touch would be great, so I understand why you took it so literally, but is there any reason why apps would have to run full screened? Most apps don't need to be bigger than they are now. I could easily see Apple keeping them windowed on a bigger iPhone OS platform. Then you could do fun stuff like rotating the individual apps to landscape with a two finger twist without rotating the whole thing. The apps that need full screen could be updated (and they would be if there was money to be made) with a tablet only version that was larger. I don't really understand a lot of your complaints, as they are simply describing what would happen with a larger tablet. It would cost more, it would have a more powerful processor, it would have a larger hard drive, and it would have a larger battery capacity. I don't understand why those would be bad or unexpected, extra space means more room for internal components.
As I've said in other threads, when I say think the tablet will run iPhone OS, I don't mean that it will run iPhone OS unchanged. Tablet running iPhone OS does not necessarily mean big iPod/iPhone. It just means that it will be starting with a very touch friendly base, code optimized for low power processors, and a large base of apps, some of which will probably need or get updates for the tablet.
Additionally I see a tablet running a variant of iPhone OS as a testing ground for features that will eventually make it into the iPhone. Multitasking and Safari with flash would likely be included with a tablet as it would have the processing power and battery life needed to meet Apples standards. They would then be given to the iPhone when it met similar levels in performance. Multitasking would actually work better with iPhone OS as the apps would be designed to work within the processor limitations. That wouldn't be the case with OSX. My 2c.
I ve just realized why Steve doesn't ask the people what they want in terms of new products and leads with his vision, because a lot if people want what they have and can understand and can't envision anything new.
I think a device that expands on the Touch is a logical next step for Apple.
Yes but this does not eliminate the possibility of a Touch device in the 7 inch range and ALSO a device in the ten inch range.
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I'm not arguing against that. What I question, though, is the validity of that next step taking the Touch up to a 10-inch screen.
I agree I see it as a hard sell device.
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Keep in mind that going bigger causes the device to cost significantly more, not only because of the cost of the larger screen, but also because other aspects of the device will require upgrading. To take advantage of the much bigger screen you have to significantly increase the size of video files on account of a 10-inch screen using the Touch's current resolution would look rather awful.
I'm not to sure however that I buy much of the above at all. First it is assumed that Apple will be doing a 100% custom processor / SoC for this device. The actual PC board driving the unit doesn't have to be any bigger than the current Touch PC board. Of course Apple will use a larger board to implement more Flash memory but there is likely to be little else on the board that isn't also on Touch.
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So now you need more hard drive capacity, more processing to handle bigger files, and a lot more battery capacity to power everything. Also, files created for the Touch will not scale up all that well on a 10-inch higher res screen.
It appears that iPhone already has more power than it requires to display 720P video. and even faster processor would end up coasting. As to the video files we are talking about a 2.5 X growth in size. That isn't that bad and really the growth in flash density will have covered that by the time the tablet ships.
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In contrast, go up in screen size far more modestly and many of those issues are dramatically scaled back. In that scenario all that video content originally created for use on the Touch is still quite decent-looking on a 5-inch or 6-inch screen. The portability, though compromised, is not nearly as compromised as it would be on a device with a 10-inch screen.
Ahh that depends. If the 7 inch device has a 720P screen it will still need large files. If you can manage 1080P in a ten inch screen then you might have a point. Frankly while I can agree with you on size I think technology has moved past the point where performance will be an issue.
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There's another point to consider. You hold a hand-held device like the Touch or this proposed product much closer to you and as a result the perceived size of the screen changes. At the distance that this unit would be from you, 10 inches would be overkill. A 32-inch monitor looks not much different at about 3 feet away as a hand-held inches from your eyes would appear with a screen significantly smaller than 10 inches. Long before you get to 10 inches such a device would be akin to watching a movie on a big-screen TV.
I don't buy into this distance issue as there are to many factors involved. Given that often see people hunched over netbooks like they are peering into a fish bowl
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I can and have given numerous reasons why a larger screen comes at a price. It's not a case of bigger is invariably better. Overkill is what has made the competition fall so far behind Apple and now, strangely, there seems to be this belief that Apple, despite having great success with a less-is-more philosophy, will suddenly reverse course and behave like the competition it has left so far behind. Where's the logic in that? Isn't this exactly the sort of irrational, ill-conceived approach that Jobs has steered Apple clear of all these years?
I honestly believe that if Apple only comes out with a ten inch device they will have a hard time selling that device. It is just to large. I know that will have all sorts of arrows coming my way but 10" only works in porno.
Frankly it will be the MBA all over again. People will buy the thing and then realize the usability issues and end up dumping the device latter at a huge discount.
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One unconfirmed rumor sees the light of day claiming Apple is getting its hands on a ton of 10-inch screens and many treat it like gospel. But something doesn't add up. If there is a new touch-based device in the pipeline, a 10-inch Touch likely isn't it.
I really hope not myself. A seven inch device would be far more portable, actually usable hand held and pocketable for many. A ten incher is just ungainly. Further once into ten inch territory a laptop makes more sense.
Now this is based on what I suspect would be a simple flat panel device. There is always the possibility of being proven wrong and finding that Apple has innovated in a unique way. My imagination just hasn't produced a viable product in that size category.
Comments
Wonder if they could make it both touch-responsive and key-responsive. Maybe they could have the keyboard slide out and flex forward (design that some phones have).
It sounds like Apple doesn't want to be a "me-too" netbook lemming but netbooks are hot sellers right now. They have long battery life and they travel really well.
The touchpad product will do better if it's well under $800 (make it a distinct price range away from the cheapest MacBook) and give it some kind of attached keyboard -- maybe a keyboard that can be smartly hidden away for people who really only want touch interface.
I've been wrong before (e.g. who will pay the same price for a green or blue nano that they'd pay for a black nano with twice the memory). Guess we'll see.
I see that's where we differ in opinion. I would expect the OS to be derived from iPhone OS for a multitude of reasons. First and foremost, Apple can't ensure that third party developers will develop touch friendly interfaces on their programs if they are written for a desktop OS. With iPhone OS touch friendly will be a given. Apple is huge on the user experience and I don't think a desktop operating system will provide a satisfactory user experience as long as the primary means of input is a mouse a keyboard.
This thought has crossed my mind, but in the end I keep asking myself what scenarios would cause one to buy a tablet over an iPhone / iPod Touch? The larger screen? For what? Productivity? Watching movies? Browsing the web? While I'd certainly admit there's plenty of room for growth (no pun intended) in those areas on the iPhone/iPod Touch, I feel as though in order to distinguish it enough from just being "a big iPod" the compromise would have to end up more on the side of being Mac-like than being iPhone-like...
But then again, maybe people are just looking for a "big iPod." As someone with a prosumer mindset, what I think makes sense is becoming less and less of what Apple actually ends up implementing, so who knows?
Good banter. Good banter, indeed.
-Clive
Google "conway's law"
Okay, did. Interesting, but I am not clear how that relates directly to my ruminations. Unless it's to bolster my informal hypothesis that great products (=art) can only result from the presence in the system of a great artist (=Steve). Help me out.
you just said 13" is as small as you should go for a laptop. How do you know smaller doesn't work? Because you have seen what happens when it goes smaller.
In this case, you haven't seen the reverse, what happens when an iPod touch goes larger and has 3G or faster networking built in. I think it'll make an awesome laptop alternative. It'll be a heck of a lot lighter and easier to use than the pervasive netbooks on the market.
And from your other post, why do you keep suggesting a $900 price. It'll be in the $400 to $500 ballpark plus a data plan. And the biggest issue Apple will have is they won't be able to make them fast enough.
Plus a data plan? Here in Canada that's a problem because our data plans cost a small fortune. This is supposed to be a good thing?
Look, netbooks, flawed though they may be, are a Godsend to a lot of students who really don't have much cash to work with and who like the idea of a very portable device like your typical netbook. Frankly, the shortcomings of netbooks are greatly exaggerated. They do serve a purpose and that Apple can't offer any improvement on the formula on account of they can't deliver any better an experience at a similar price point, well that's just a segment that Apple can't participate in. It's that simple.
Haven't all forms been predicted? For at least a few decades even!
I guess. But I don't recall anyone accurately predicting how the iPhone actually turned out, so that should serve as a lesson to us. I'm hearing what sounds to me like contradictory statements. The concept that they haven't done a tablet computer yet being taken as evidence that they probably won't any time soon really strikes me as wrong, since we know the last two blockbuster products from Apple went through years of development before they became products. Apple will release this beast when they think they've got something nobody else has, when they believe it's sexy as hell, and defines a new product niche they can exploit -- and not before, if Steve has anything to do with it. The evidence suggests they are getting close.
Also, I don't think anyone is basing their "tablets are unlikely" argument soley on "apple hasn't ever sold a tablet". Seems more like a strawman to me.
As for Apple getting close to releasing a tablet... I'd say the newton was close as well.
But yeah, i get where you're coming from. Technology is advancing and the iPhone interface is one more piece of the puzzle.
I see the form factor as the biggest reason why tablets aren't popular. Technology can't change the form factor unless perhaps we figure in a far fetched digital-scroll scenario. Tablets forgo a physical keyboard yet still can't be put in a pocket. Unless humans undergo rapid evolution, I predict that tablets will always be limited to auxiliary/limited use computers or computers for specific niche professions. Those niches are significant, but relatively small compared to the size of the entire computing industry.
Steve jobs is not omnipotent.
Steve jobs does not decide everything at Apple
Steve jobs is brilliant but there are also brilliant people at Microsoft (God only knows why they are there...)
That in itself does not make a brilliant company.
It is the culture, ethos and management at Apple that allows great things to happen. that is the fundamental reason. not one man - Steve Jobs.
If steve Jobs were not at the helm Apple would continue to be brilliant until that culture, ethos and management evaporated.
Apple's ethos is about being critical (as in to critique) and to not succumb to mediocrity and this is where Steve Jobs has been instrumental in instilling that culture in to this company. Without that Apple would be generally mediocre just like MS. Jonathon Ive would not be able to deliver fantastic industrial design without that culture.
Steve Jobs does not make the TV ads, nor does he specify the finish on the aluminium on macs, or figure out how to make a consistent GUI.
He more than likely critiques a lot of work at Apple.
Steve is directly responsible for the ethos of the company and critical hires who he entrusts to pass on that ethos to every person they subsequently hire beneath them at all levels.
Steve left the company in great shape when he was recovering and no doubt they would continue to make market leading products in established markets for Apple.
Steve is brilliant at creating market penetration of new products for Apple. Once done he moves on and does come back to sign off on all their products aesthetic appeal while relying on his incredibly talented staff to manage the engineering and marketing.
You don't remember people predicting a touch screen phone? I seem to remember tons of those predictions, along with click wheel, T9, stylus augmented, and qwerty predictions.
A touch screen phone does not make an iPhone. No one predcted what the iPhone would be. Half of those touch screen phone ideas had a clickwheel on the back because the iPhone had to simply be an iPod+phone and iPods came with clickwheels. This just shows how narrow sighted we are. We can't conceptuallize new ideas, we just modify and ocmbine existing ones. An Apple tablet will probably not be anything like any of us visualized. Except me of course
I see the form factor as the biggest reason why tablets aren't popular. Technology can't change the form factor unless perhaps we figure in a far fetched digital-scroll scenario. Tablets forgo a physical keyboard yet still can't be put in a pocket. Unless humans undergo rapid evolution, I predict that tablets will always be limited to auxiliary/limited use computers or computers for specific niche professions. Those niches are significant, but relatively small compared to the size of the entire computing industry.
I see the lack of a proper touch OS and lack of an enticing purpose have doomed past tablets. These are both obstacles I think Apple can overcome. I agree that tablets will remain auxiliary computers for the time being, but please consider that netbooks generally fall into the same category. Most people don't buy them as a primary computer. The tablet has a large potential market to draw from: netbooks, ebooks, education, business, entertainment, etc. And draw from it Apple will.
I respectfully, disagree. The guy in charge sets the tone of the company and that's Steve Jobs. One of the elements is he has been able to corral the 'nerds' (no disrespect intended) that write the sw and design the hardware and make them produce high quality usable products, like the iPhone. Just look at the crap the other companies were producing and getting a way with before the iPhone. Think MS mobile, Symbian, Motorola, and Palm, RIM. They were making so much money and yet were satisfied with substandard user experiences mainly to their clumsy and second rate software and hardware.
actually you "respectfully" agree with me that "The guy in charge sets the tone of the company and that's Steve Jobs. One of the elements is he has been able to corral the 'nerds''.
it's the same with Ive. He does not design everything. He has a huge team around him. I actually know what I am talking about here as a designer. It is never a one man show.
Steve is directly responsible for the ethos of the company and critical hires who he entrusts to pass on that ethos to every person they subsequently hire beneath them at all levels.
Steve left the company in great shape when he was recovering and no doubt they would continue to make market leading products in established markets for Apple.
Steve is brilliant at creating market penetration of new products for Apple. Once done he moves on and does come back to sign off on all their products aesthetic appeal while relying on his incredibly talented staff to manage the engineering and marketing.
yes steve is responsible for the ethos..... I said that.
no steve does not create the market penetration. He does not personally staff retail centers and so on. It is Apple's staff that does that with Steve overseeing.
Steve is brilliant but it takes more than one person.
You don't remember people predicting a touch screen phone? I seem to remember tons of those predictions, along with click wheel, T9, stylus augmented, and qwerty predictions.
I remember all kinds of guesses, but I also remember how much surprise the actual products generated when they were released.
Also, I don't think anyone is basing their "tablets are unlikely" argument soley on "apple hasn't ever sold a tablet". Seems more like a strawman to me.
Perhaps not solely, but...
I used to be an iTablet hopeful... then I woke up and smelled reality.
This is Apple we're talking about. Since when have they given us anything we actually wanted? We've begged for a headless iMac. We've begged for an xMac. We've begged for a DVR. We've begged for a Tablet. We've begged for an iTunes subscription service.
The only "prayer" Apple has answered was for the iPhone, and we begged for nearly a decade before we finally got it... and even then we had to beg for an open platform, which we still don't have.
Trust me, boys and girls. We won't be getting a Tablet any time soon.
As for Apple getting close to releasing a tablet... I'd say the newton was close as well.
But yeah, i get where you're coming from. Technology is advancing and the iPhone interface is one more piece of the puzzle.
I see the form factor as the biggest reason why tablets aren't popular. Technology can't change the form factor unless perhaps we figure in a far fetched digital-scroll scenario. Tablets forgo a physical keyboard yet still can't be put in a pocket. Unless humans undergo rapid evolution, I predict that tablets will always be limited to auxiliary/limited use computers or computers for specific niche professions. Those niches are significant, but relatively small compared to the size of the entire computing industry.
Well, I think we should know now how Apple operates. They're always going to try to redefine categories, not chase existing categories. I expect the final product will include some of the features many have guessed at, but I am also expecting that the total package will exceed these expectations.
you just said 13" is as small as you should go for a laptop. How do you know smaller doesn't work? Because you have seen what happens when it goes smaller.
In this case, you haven't seen the reverse, what happens when an iPod touch goes larger and has 3G or faster networking built in. I think it'll make an awesome laptop alternative. It'll be a heck of a lot lighter and easier to use than the pervasive netbooks on the market.
I think a device that expands on the Touch is a logical next step for Apple. I'm not arguing against that. What I question, though, is the validity of that next step taking the Touch up to a 10-inch screen.
Keep in mind that going bigger causes the device to cost significantly more, not only because of the cost of the larger screen, but also because other aspects of the device will require upgrading. To take advantage of the much bigger screen you have to significantly increase the size of video files on account of a 10-inch screen using the Touch's current resolution would look rather awful. So now you need more hard drive capacity, more processing to handle bigger files, and a lot more battery capacity to power everything. Also, files created for the Touch will not scale up all that well on a 10-inch higher res screen.
In contrast, go up in screen size far more modestly and many of those issues are dramatically scaled back. In that scenario all that video content originally created for use on the Touch is still quite decent-looking on a 5-inch or 6-inch screen. The portability, though compromised, is not nearly as compromised as it would be on a device with a 10-inch screen.
There's another point to consider. You hold a hand-held device like the Touch or this proposed product much closer to you and as a result the perceived size of the screen changes. At the distance that this unit would be from you, 10 inches would be overkill. A 32-inch monitor looks not much different at about 3 feet away as a hand-held inches from your eyes would appear with a screen significantly smaller than 10 inches. Long before you get to 10 inches such a device would be akin to watching a movie on a big-screen TV.
I can and have given numerous reasons why a larger screen comes at a price. It's not a case of bigger is invariably better. Overkill is what has made the competition fall so far behind Apple and now, strangely, there seems to be this belief that Apple, despite having great success with a less-is-more philosophy, will suddenly reverse course and behave like the competition it has left so far behind. Where's the logic in that? Isn't this exactly the sort of irrational, ill-conceived approach that Jobs has steered Apple clear of all these years?
One unconfirmed rumor sees the light of day claiming Apple is getting its hands on a ton of 10-inch screens and many treat it like gospel. But something doesn't add up. If there is a new touch-based device in the pipeline, a 10-inch Touch likely isn't it.
If an Apple tablet is going to be a "Mac" (which I think many agree it should be) then it absolutely must be the same OS as is used on all other Macs. That said, it's a very different situation from the secretly-developed iPhone OS.
Besides, my point in mentioning it wasn't in regards to developing a tablet-focused OS, per se (though that is certainly a part of it). Since such an OS will most likely be actual Mac OS X, my point was about the efficiency of an OS capable of duplicating the Mac OS experience on a device that has the portability and battery life that one would expect of a tablet. Snow Leopard may be that OS, but it remains to be seen at this point. Seeing the benchmarks of a Snow Leopard-equipped netbook Hackintosh would be an amazing indicator of whether or not the new OS would be well-suited for tablet hardware.
It is not hard to imagine a tablet-friendly Mac OS X based on Snow Leopard.
But that's not the problem.
The problem is the existing Mac OS X software base. Pre-existing software is expecting to find a keyboard, a mouse and a large screen. Current Mac software is simply not designed to run under a whole new interface. Many programs would break. Most would be clunky. None would be designed to fit the new form-factor. In short, they would suck.
Creating an OS with a new interface is reasonable.
Expecting the current (and older) versions of Photoshop, Maya and Word to run perfectly without modification is not reasonable.
Apple are not going to launch a whole new platform and then turn away as users crash and burn their software on it. If we learned anything from the Origami Project it was that.
The success of the iPhone came about because the interface and the software was built specifically for the form factor.
My guess is this device (if it is real) will only run apps from the app store. And all of those apps will be purpose-built for this form-factor.
C.
http://visionaforethought.files.word..._b_oflife7.jpg
Very nice! I do like visual rumors!
Did you do this one?
Either way, thank you!
Thank god we have Steve to push the creative process at Apple.
And thank god I don't work for him!
I would love to work for him: 1) it means you are one of the top people of your field, 2) means you are making good money, 3) I'd like to be driven and part of such innovation and quality products... would learn a lot.
Once went there for lunch with a manger who knew someone who worked there, it was like walking in Shangri-La, the cafeteria alone was incredible. Several years later I interviewed at Apple, got a second interview and everything, but unfortunately (for me) they canceled the position.
I've heard stories about Steve Jobs and how difficult and demanding he can be, but I think most accept it as part of the culture and know he's the spoon that stirs the soup. He keeps them well employed and working for one of the top companies with high stock value and awesome products, from what I hear its a great place to work.
Steve jobs is not omnipotent.
Steve jobs does not decide everything at Apple
Steve jobs is brilliant but there are also brilliant people at Microsoft (God only knows why they are there...)
It is the culture, ethos and management at Apple that allows great things to happen. that is the fundamental reason. not one man - Steve Jobs.
If steve Jobs were not at the helm Apple would continue to be brilliant until that culture, ethos and management evaporated.
He more than likely critiques a lot of work at Apple.
I agree to some extent, but when he was kicked out in the 90's Apple almost went bankrupt. The stock was down to chump change, people were saying it was over for Apple. Then Jobs returned, they very soon after started making money and turned profitable again. Now with a stock price well over $150, hard to believe in just 1999 or so it was in the teens ($18-20).
Now people can argue this or that, but it is fact - with Jobs = success + innovation, without Jobs = failure, confusion, laziness, no vision or plan.
Jobs does not come up with all the ideas or make the commercials, but I guarantee you he see's, approves of, and perfects everything before it becomes public. And he is smart enough to hire top people to help him carry his vision and help him innovate. A leader does not have to do everything and a truly great leader (CEO, Founder) is smart enough to hire people around him to make him/her better and carry their vision and add to it.
Jobs is Apple and I worry when he does leave for good, Apple will slowly revert back to 1998 and being lost in the fog. I am not looking forward to that time, because we already allegedly have some employee's crying about things were "easier" with him gone these past months, that make the future seem scary. They need him to drive them and demand, sadly the inmates can't run the asylum on their own.
The iBook as I like to call the new tablet will revolutionasize computing and everyone will be hot on their heels to copy it. The book form that has been trusted and true for thousand hundred years will finally take the digital form it has to take and the little apple from Cupertino will again be responsible for this revolution.
I think a device that expands on the Touch is a logical next step for Apple. I'm not arguing against that. What I question, though, is the validity of that next step taking the Touch up to a 10-inch screen.
Keep in mind that going bigger causes the device to cost significantly more, not only because of the cost of the larger screen, but also because other aspects of the device will require upgrading. To take advantage of the much bigger screen you have to significantly increase the size of video files on account of a 10-inch screen using the Touch's current resolution would look rather awful. So now you need more hard drive capacity, more processing to handle bigger files, and a lot more battery capacity to power everything. Also, files created for the Touch will not scale up all that well on a 10-inch higher res screen.
I know you were quoting someone that said a 10" iPod touch would be great, so I understand why you took it so literally, but is there any reason why apps would have to run full screened? Most apps don't need to be bigger than they are now. I could easily see Apple keeping them windowed on a bigger iPhone OS platform. Then you could do fun stuff like rotating the individual apps to landscape with a two finger twist without rotating the whole thing. The apps that need full screen could be updated (and they would be if there was money to be made) with a tablet only version that was larger. I don't really understand a lot of your complaints, as they are simply describing what would happen with a larger tablet. It would cost more, it would have a more powerful processor, it would have a larger hard drive, and it would have a larger battery capacity. I don't understand why those would be bad or unexpected, extra space means more room for internal components.
As I've said in other threads, when I say think the tablet will run iPhone OS, I don't mean that it will run iPhone OS unchanged. Tablet running iPhone OS does not necessarily mean big iPod/iPhone. It just means that it will be starting with a very touch friendly base, code optimized for low power processors, and a large base of apps, some of which will probably need or get updates for the tablet.
Additionally I see a tablet running a variant of iPhone OS as a testing ground for features that will eventually make it into the iPhone. Multitasking and Safari with flash would likely be included with a tablet as it would have the processing power and battery life needed to meet Apples standards. They would then be given to the iPhone when it met similar levels in performance. Multitasking would actually work better with iPhone OS as the apps would be designed to work within the processor limitations. That wouldn't be the case with OSX. My 2c.
I ve just realized why Steve doesn't ask the people what they want in terms of new products and leads with his vision, because a lot if people want what they have and can understand and can't envision anything new.
You can't want what hasn't been invented yet.
I think a device that expands on the Touch is a logical next step for Apple.
Yes but this does not eliminate the possibility of a Touch device in the 7 inch range and ALSO a device in the ten inch range.
I'm not arguing against that. What I question, though, is the validity of that next step taking the Touch up to a 10-inch screen.
I agree I see it as a hard sell device.
Keep in mind that going bigger causes the device to cost significantly more, not only because of the cost of the larger screen, but also because other aspects of the device will require upgrading. To take advantage of the much bigger screen you have to significantly increase the size of video files on account of a 10-inch screen using the Touch's current resolution would look rather awful.
I'm not to sure however that I buy much of the above at all. First it is assumed that Apple will be doing a 100% custom processor / SoC for this device. The actual PC board driving the unit doesn't have to be any bigger than the current Touch PC board. Of course Apple will use a larger board to implement more Flash memory but there is likely to be little else on the board that isn't also on Touch.
So now you need more hard drive capacity, more processing to handle bigger files, and a lot more battery capacity to power everything. Also, files created for the Touch will not scale up all that well on a 10-inch higher res screen.
It appears that iPhone already has more power than it requires to display 720P video. and even faster processor would end up coasting. As to the video files we are talking about a 2.5 X growth in size. That isn't that bad and really the growth in flash density will have covered that by the time the tablet ships.
In contrast, go up in screen size far more modestly and many of those issues are dramatically scaled back. In that scenario all that video content originally created for use on the Touch is still quite decent-looking on a 5-inch or 6-inch screen. The portability, though compromised, is not nearly as compromised as it would be on a device with a 10-inch screen.
Ahh that depends. If the 7 inch device has a 720P screen it will still need large files. If you can manage 1080P in a ten inch screen then you might have a point. Frankly while I can agree with you on size I think technology has moved past the point where performance will be an issue.
There's another point to consider. You hold a hand-held device like the Touch or this proposed product much closer to you and as a result the perceived size of the screen changes. At the distance that this unit would be from you, 10 inches would be overkill. A 32-inch monitor looks not much different at about 3 feet away as a hand-held inches from your eyes would appear with a screen significantly smaller than 10 inches. Long before you get to 10 inches such a device would be akin to watching a movie on a big-screen TV.
I don't buy into this distance issue as there are to many factors involved. Given that often see people hunched over netbooks like they are peering into a fish bowl
I can and have given numerous reasons why a larger screen comes at a price. It's not a case of bigger is invariably better. Overkill is what has made the competition fall so far behind Apple and now, strangely, there seems to be this belief that Apple, despite having great success with a less-is-more philosophy, will suddenly reverse course and behave like the competition it has left so far behind. Where's the logic in that? Isn't this exactly the sort of irrational, ill-conceived approach that Jobs has steered Apple clear of all these years?
I honestly believe that if Apple only comes out with a ten inch device they will have a hard time selling that device. It is just to large. I know that will have all sorts of arrows coming my way but 10" only works in porno.
Frankly it will be the MBA all over again. People will buy the thing and then realize the usability issues and end up dumping the device latter at a huge discount.
One unconfirmed rumor sees the light of day claiming Apple is getting its hands on a ton of 10-inch screens and many treat it like gospel. But something doesn't add up. If there is a new touch-based device in the pipeline, a 10-inch Touch likely isn't it.
I really hope not myself. A seven inch device would be far more portable, actually usable hand held and pocketable for many. A ten incher is just ungainly. Further once into ten inch territory a laptop makes more sense.
Now this is based on what I suspect would be a simple flat panel device. There is always the possibility of being proven wrong and finding that Apple has innovated in a unique way. My imagination just hasn't produced a viable product in that size category.
Dave