The iPad ... it's a learning device for the computer illiterate and those who can never learn a computer and need a lot of hand holding.
Ah well, as a UNIX, C, C++ and Window programmer of 23 years experience and a Mac owner since 1984 I obviously will have to cancel my plan to buy one now ...
So if I read James Joyce's "Finnigan's Wake" on an iPad I am a couch potato, but not if I read it on dead trees? Wow, I think we found who's the real dumb potato in this forum.
It is actually "Finnegans Wake" (without the apostrophe and with an "e", I happen to have the original dead tree print from 1939)... Still, I adore your optimism; looking at the current collection offered by Amazon and all others, quality authors like Joyce or Pynchon are simply non-existent in electronic book stores and the Gutenberg Project editions of Joyce's works are simply unreadable (actually, the typography of all Kindle books I have seen so far is a complete and utter disaster). Until that improves, I stay with the dead trees and use the iPad for music and videos...
The iPad will sell more than 2 Million units during "back to school" season 2010. Everything before and after will be at least another 3 million units == 5 milliom units for CY 2010.
But do you think we are in the early adopter stage for this type of product still? I had a Sharp WIzard back in the day, several Palm devices, several blackberries, a Nokia 770, and then the iPhone. Starting in about 2000, you could almost substitute a Palm with a keyboard for a computer if you were backpacking or a road warrior.
In 2005 or so, I thought the Nokia 770 was the answer to what I had been wanting all those years-- flexible operating system, bluetooth tethering to my cell phone for internet (or WiFi), and applications I could use to edit documents, along with a reasonably good internet browser for the time.
The iPhone just made that concept actually work in a mass-adoption scale.
I would say yes, but my point applied as much as anything to the iPad alone. You can still anticipate an s-curve for adoption, mass acceptance, and saturation, because that's an entirely typical pattern. I thought the analyst was belaboring the obvious, but then they often do.
Of course I'll use one. Most power users will be excited by this device, believe me. If you are saying that power users won't replace their work horse machine for the iPad, you are right, but get one? Top of the wish list, mate. Can you imagine how many webyfied power app front ends this thing will run? Like daylite, or similar. Instead of firing up the old laptop when you are with clients, or in the car, or some such, this thing will be far superior. So yes, power users will use this both for business and pleasure.
spot on, paxman... I am one of those "power-users", and hope to get mine asap. 3G version just for the extra flexibility. I travel often enough to want that data-sim function as well...
This will be FAR more convenient to do things with on a flight than my laptop is. Assuming we get to use them during...
I suppose I should comment on the original article..... In a word? Bollocks!
The guy is purely speculating, and doing a really bad job of it. ("You call that an analysis?? What are we paying you for!!")
He predicts 2mm units sold for all of 2010 AND 100% cannibalization of the iPod Touch to achieve it? That's a ridiculous thing (and a gross oversimplification)... I wonder who his target audience is?
I don't see nonsense numbers like that very often. Maybe he's trying to get the stock price to nudge downward (you know, lower investor expectation) so he can make a bigger killing when the numbers come out next January? Who knows... he just doesn't look too bright to me. That's one "analyst" I won't be asking financial advice from!
Assuming Apple can produce enough of these (and they're notoriously bad at that... witness the current iMac 27"), I can easily see them selling 5 ~ 10mm units this year, easily twice that the next...
Well said. I don't anticipate anyone walking around with their iPads on a daily basis. I don't even see people lugging around a netbook either. It is not exactly a "portable" device to be carried around daily. I can do more on the iPhone without having to lug around a silly looking iPad.
You're not very familiar with professors and academia, are you?
I teach at the University of California, and all, I mean literally ALL, of my colleagues are waiting for textbooks to come out for the iPad so we can stop lugging heavy 300, 500, 700 pg. books around.
What will really sink it for me will be some kind of mark-up technology to use with them, either in an e-reader or a PDF markup app that will let me make notes in e-textbooks to prepare lectures, and for office hours, etc. Being familiar with how textbook publishers work, I'm sure at first there will be a proliferation of e-readers from each publisher, but eventually a uniform (if not open) standard will hopefully emerge that will allow us to access e-textbooks from multiple publishers, and allow doing mark-up and saving of those notes on all of them from a single app.
This kind of system would be a tremendous boon for us in academics, and I can easily see how I would use a 'pad' alongside my MBP while working, lecturing, etc.
Not so- you can discreetly view an iPhone but not the MaxiPad.
iPods and iPhones are popular grab and run items for the thieving crowd, discreet or not. I wish you were more discreet with your persnickety and snarky comments. Hopefully as you get older you will ditch the need to find a way to be right and instead simply shoot for a rational discussion.
Industry analysts seem to have a knack for getting it wrong, perhaps because so many of them seem to lack common sense. Would I buy a iPad instead of an iPod touch. Not very likely. I have a touch and it's a very different beast. It slips into my pocket and goes with me everywhere. I'm more likely to leave home having forgotten my cell phone than my trusty touch. I use my touch a lot traveling and out on walks to listen to podcasts. I can't imagine myself doing that with an iPad. I'd look silly.
I'm thinking about getting an iPad late in 2010, but it won't be as a touch replacement. The beast is far too big to carry with me everywhere. In the short-term it won't replace anything except perhaps books. The work apps on my MacBook (such as Scrivener) don't yet exist on an iPad. In the long term, if enough writing/working apps migrate to the iPad, it still probably won't substitute for a laptop, it'll just delay how often I upgrade. And in the end, Apple will probably get more money out of me rather than less.
I don't think it's common sense that analysts lack: I think it's true insight that they lack.
The kind of insight it takes to create products like iPods & iPhones...
WHY the iPad will be a HUGE SUCCESS and will truly change the way people use "mobile" computers.
ast forward to Jan 2012
If Windows and Linux do not begin a complete re-write, from the ground-up, of what a "native touch operating system" IS (ex. iPhone OS), Apple will have a five year head-start on All other operating systems (as it pertains to "a true, intuitive, mature, simple, yet Powerful touch UI). I am no genius but I'll bet my house that what you see in this video will NEVER EVER succeed "touch-wise"....EVER!! (http://www.engadget.com/2010/02/01/e...t-strictly-me/)
+++
The future of computing == everything that isn't!
The iPad gets more accomplished in 1 minute than that kludge did in 11 minutes!
This thing will sell better than the 3M Ergo Audrey Internet Appliance! Guaranteed!
I'm getting one. Perfect match for my 27" iMac. I sold my MBP last month knowing that (for me) having a notebook was no longer in my future with an iPad like device.
At first I thought, hey - that's a funny little photoshop project right there - but that thing is REAL! LMAO!!!
Ah well, as a UNIX, C, C++ and Window programmer of 23 years experience and a Mac owner since 1984 I obviously will have to cancel my plan to buy one now ...
I just love these definitive statements
Thank god there's people like them to make sure the rest of us live a trouble-free life! I don't know what I would've done with myself had I actually gone out and tried the device before passing judgement on it and considered buying one. Imagine the horror of discovering that I might find a use for it that someone else may not have figured out!?
All kidding aside... some people can't grasp that this is not just a large iPod touch. The larger screen and faster processor means there could possibly be many more uses for it. The iWork demonstration alone showed that this device is capable of running desktop class applications.
It also boggles my mind that some of the iPad-haters are "believers" of netbooks!? If there was one category of computer I've never understood, it would be netbooks. I can buy last year's laptop for the same price as a new netbook and get a ton more features and a lot more power. Netbooks only make sense when size is the only major issue; usability goes way down as the keyboard and screen shrink in size. My advice to people who bring up buying a netbook because of its price... go on ebay and buy a used laptop.
but eventually a uniform (if not open) standard will hopefully emerge that will allow us to access e-textbooks from multiple publishers, and allow doing mark-up and saving of those notes on all of them from a single app.
There's an app for that!
Iceberg seems like it is well on its way to becoming a de facto standard format for delivering all that you just asked for in a single application! Currently available on the iPhone, but I'm sure it'll find its way to the iPad.
At first I thought, hey - that's a funny little photoshop project right there - but that thing is REAL! LMAO!!!
it was ahead of its time! i love the TV tuner knob to switch apps. and it was touch screen (stylus). circa 2000. Release at $499. There used to be a pretty big hacking community for this thing as it was linux. It was pretty retro styled and nifty.
Really? Are you sure about that? You cannot use an iPad without already owning a Mac or PC computer, and having a WiFi network at home (people are not going to buy the 3G model to use solely at home). How do you expect to get anything into it without having a computer, and knowing how to operate said computer? How is a computer illiterate going to be able to get on the internet if they are too stupid to know how to set up a WiFi network to make it work? They might be able to tap a few icons, but they won't be able to do anything with it. Nice try.
The iPad is NOT something that can replace a computer. Most iPhone and laptop owners will have no interest in the iPod Touch Grande. I would rather use a laptop and have a COMPLETE internet experience, without the hobbled iPad. Also, the iPad doesn't fit well as a family device since it does not offer multiple user login.
Oh, I disagree. First, I think you're dead wrong about using an iPad without already owning a computer. Jobs has already stated that these things will be unlocked and you can get your 3G plan activated on the iPad itself: ergo it is probably self contained. And while you can sync it with iTunes, it doesn't mean you have to.
Second, anyone can call up an Internet provider and have them come and install a wireless router for wifi in their homes. Coupled with Apple's notorious ease of setup & use, it will be dead simple for a computer illiterate to get one of these things up and running. Besides, the original poster said that anyone would be able to pick it up and just use it and I firmly agree. It'll be easier than using an ATM.
Last, I think this fits in perfectly as a family device. For what it is, there's absolutely no need for multiple user login - not for web surfing, reading books, playing games, looking at photos or watching video; the primary uses for the device.
Ummm.... yeah, maybe, but you need to try and help some completely computer illiterate person check their email first. Not only is it unbelievably frustrating but also a real eyeopener. Like when a window disappears behind another... I have seen people just give up at this point and hit the on off button on their computer in order to resolve this problem. But yes, if they are accustomed to using hotmail and have a router all set up, then yeah.
And that's the whole point of the simple, intuitive interface. It just makes sense - poke the message you want to read and if you really get lost, just press the one and only button and start again - poke the mail thingy, poke the message, swipe stuff up and down... easy.
Apples marketing slogan used to be "Think Different".
I'll be ordering them for photographers in the field. Shoot - transfer to iPad to have a nice look and email them back to the office. There's one "power user" application that took me about ten seconds of looking at the iPad pages on the Apple web site to come up with.
Think different.
I agree. And with an LED-backlit IPS screen, photo stuff is going to look awesome on it. -Probably even better than a macbook pro.
Comments
The iPad ... it's a learning device for the computer illiterate and those who can never learn a computer and need a lot of hand holding.
Ah well, as a UNIX, C, C++ and Window programmer of 23 years experience and a Mac owner since 1984 I obviously will have to cancel my plan to buy one now ...
I just love these definitive statements
So if I read James Joyce's "Finnigan's Wake" on an iPad I am a couch potato, but not if I read it on dead trees? Wow, I think we found who's the real dumb potato in this forum.
It is actually "Finnegans Wake" (without the apostrophe and with an "e", I happen to have the original dead tree print from 1939)... Still, I adore your optimism; looking at the current collection offered by Amazon and all others, quality authors like Joyce or Pynchon are simply non-existent in electronic book stores and the Gutenberg Project editions of Joyce's works are simply unreadable (actually, the typography of all Kindle books I have seen so far is a complete and utter disaster). Until that improves, I stay with the dead trees and use the iPad for music and videos...
The iPad will sell more than 2 Million units during "back to school" season 2010. Everything before and after will be at least another 3 million units == 5 milliom units for CY 2010.
*
But do you think we are in the early adopter stage for this type of product still? I had a Sharp WIzard back in the day, several Palm devices, several blackberries, a Nokia 770, and then the iPhone. Starting in about 2000, you could almost substitute a Palm with a keyboard for a computer if you were backpacking or a road warrior.
In 2005 or so, I thought the Nokia 770 was the answer to what I had been wanting all those years-- flexible operating system, bluetooth tethering to my cell phone for internet (or WiFi), and applications I could use to edit documents, along with a reasonably good internet browser for the time.
The iPhone just made that concept actually work in a mass-adoption scale.
I would say yes, but my point applied as much as anything to the iPad alone. You can still anticipate an s-curve for adoption, mass acceptance, and saturation, because that's an entirely typical pattern. I thought the analyst was belaboring the obvious, but then they often do.
Of course I'll use one. Most power users will be excited by this device, believe me. If you are saying that power users won't replace their work horse machine for the iPad, you are right, but get one? Top of the wish list, mate. Can you imagine how many webyfied power app front ends this thing will run? Like daylite, or similar. Instead of firing up the old laptop when you are with clients, or in the car, or some such, this thing will be far superior. So yes, power users will use this both for business and pleasure.
spot on, paxman... I am one of those "power-users", and hope to get mine asap. 3G version just for the extra flexibility. I travel often enough to want that data-sim function as well...
This will be FAR more convenient to do things with on a flight than my laptop is. Assuming we get to use them during...
The guy is purely speculating, and doing a really bad job of it. ("You call that an analysis?? What are we paying you for!!")
He predicts 2mm units sold for all of 2010 AND 100% cannibalization of the iPod Touch to achieve it? That's a ridiculous thing (and a gross oversimplification)... I wonder who his target audience is?
I don't see nonsense numbers like that very often. Maybe he's trying to get the stock price to nudge downward (you know, lower investor expectation) so he can make a bigger killing when the numbers come out next January? Who knows... he just doesn't look too bright to me. That's one "analyst" I won't be asking financial advice from!
Assuming Apple can produce enough of these (and they're notoriously bad at that... witness the current iMac 27"), I can easily see them selling 5 ~ 10mm units this year, easily twice that the next...
Well said. I don't anticipate anyone walking around with their iPads on a daily basis. I don't even see people lugging around a netbook either. It is not exactly a "portable" device to be carried around daily. I can do more on the iPhone without having to lug around a silly looking iPad.
You're not very familiar with professors and academia, are you?
I teach at the University of California, and all, I mean literally ALL, of my colleagues are waiting for textbooks to come out for the iPad so we can stop lugging heavy 300, 500, 700 pg. books around.
What will really sink it for me will be some kind of mark-up technology to use with them, either in an e-reader or a PDF markup app that will let me make notes in e-textbooks to prepare lectures, and for office hours, etc. Being familiar with how textbook publishers work, I'm sure at first there will be a proliferation of e-readers from each publisher, but eventually a uniform (if not open) standard will hopefully emerge that will allow us to access e-textbooks from multiple publishers, and allow doing mark-up and saving of those notes on all of them from a single app.
This kind of system would be a tremendous boon for us in academics, and I can easily see how I would use a 'pad' alongside my MBP while working, lecturing, etc.
Not so- you can discreetly view an iPhone but not the MaxiPad.
iPods and iPhones are popular grab and run items for the thieving crowd, discreet or not. I wish you were more discreet with your persnickety and snarky comments. Hopefully as you get older you will ditch the need to find a way to be right and instead simply shoot for a rational discussion.
5million ipads at least in the first year.
I am no genius but I'll bet my house that what you see in this video will NEVER EVER succeed "touch-wise"....EVER!! (http://www.engadget.com/2010/02/01/e...t-strictly-me/
WOW. That video is sooo painful to watch - from the mind-numbing boot up to the completely UNintuitive UI.
Industry analysts seem to have a knack for getting it wrong, perhaps because so many of them seem to lack common sense. Would I buy a iPad instead of an iPod touch. Not very likely. I have a touch and it's a very different beast. It slips into my pocket and goes with me everywhere. I'm more likely to leave home having forgotten my cell phone than my trusty touch. I use my touch a lot traveling and out on walks to listen to podcasts. I can't imagine myself doing that with an iPad. I'd look silly.
I'm thinking about getting an iPad late in 2010, but it won't be as a touch replacement. The beast is far too big to carry with me everywhere. In the short-term it won't replace anything except perhaps books. The work apps on my MacBook (such as Scrivener) don't yet exist on an iPad. In the long term, if enough writing/working apps migrate to the iPad, it still probably won't substitute for a laptop, it'll just delay how often I upgrade. And in the end, Apple will probably get more money out of me rather than less.
I don't think it's common sense that analysts lack: I think it's true insight that they lack.
The kind of insight it takes to create products like iPods & iPhones...
WHY the iPad will be a HUGE SUCCESS and will truly change the way people use "mobile" computers.
ast forward to Jan 2012
If Windows and Linux do not begin a complete re-write, from the ground-up, of what a "native touch operating system" IS (ex. iPhone OS), Apple will have a five year head-start on All other operating systems (as it pertains to "a true, intuitive, mature, simple, yet Powerful touch UI). I am no genius but I'll bet my house that what you see in this video will NEVER EVER succeed "touch-wise"....EVER!! (http://www.engadget.com/2010/02/01/e...t-strictly-me/)
+++
The future of computing == everything that isn't!
The iPad gets more accomplished in 1 minute than that kludge did in 11 minutes!
*
This thing will sell better than the 3M Ergo Audrey Internet Appliance! Guaranteed!
I'm getting one. Perfect match for my 27" iMac. I sold my MBP last month knowing that (for me) having a notebook was no longer in my future with an iPad like device.
At first I thought, hey - that's a funny little photoshop project right there - but that thing is REAL! LMAO!!!
Ah well, as a UNIX, C, C++ and Window programmer of 23 years experience and a Mac owner since 1984 I obviously will have to cancel my plan to buy one now ...
I just love these definitive statements
Thank god there's people like them to make sure the rest of us live a trouble-free life! I don't know what I would've done with myself had I actually gone out and tried the device before passing judgement on it and considered buying one. Imagine the horror of discovering that I might find a use for it that someone else may not have figured out!?
All kidding aside... some people can't grasp that this is not just a large iPod touch. The larger screen and faster processor means there could possibly be many more uses for it. The iWork demonstration alone showed that this device is capable of running desktop class applications.
It also boggles my mind that some of the iPad-haters are "believers" of netbooks!? If there was one category of computer I've never understood, it would be netbooks. I can buy last year's laptop for the same price as a new netbook and get a ton more features and a lot more power. Netbooks only make sense when size is the only major issue; usability goes way down as the keyboard and screen shrink in size. My advice to people who bring up buying a netbook because of its price... go on ebay and buy a used laptop.
iPad = $499+, touch = $199<. Sales increase, revenues increase, and as long as margins increase everybody should be happy!
but eventually a uniform (if not open) standard will hopefully emerge that will allow us to access e-textbooks from multiple publishers, and allow doing mark-up and saving of those notes on all of them from a single app.
There's an app for that!
Iceberg seems like it is well on its way to becoming a de facto standard format for delivering all that you just asked for in a single application! Currently available on the iPhone, but I'm sure it'll find its way to the iPad.
http://www.icebergreader.com/
At first I thought, hey - that's a funny little photoshop project right there - but that thing is REAL! LMAO!!!
it was ahead of its time! i love the TV tuner knob to switch apps. and it was touch screen (stylus). circa 2000. Release at $499. There used to be a pretty big hacking community for this thing as it was linux. It was pretty retro styled and nifty.
Really? Are you sure about that? You cannot use an iPad without already owning a Mac or PC computer, and having a WiFi network at home (people are not going to buy the 3G model to use solely at home). How do you expect to get anything into it without having a computer, and knowing how to operate said computer? How is a computer illiterate going to be able to get on the internet if they are too stupid to know how to set up a WiFi network to make it work? They might be able to tap a few icons, but they won't be able to do anything with it. Nice try.
The iPad is NOT something that can replace a computer. Most iPhone and laptop owners will have no interest in the iPod Touch Grande. I would rather use a laptop and have a COMPLETE internet experience, without the hobbled iPad. Also, the iPad doesn't fit well as a family device since it does not offer multiple user login.
Oh, I disagree. First, I think you're dead wrong about using an iPad without already owning a computer. Jobs has already stated that these things will be unlocked and you can get your 3G plan activated on the iPad itself: ergo it is probably self contained. And while you can sync it with iTunes, it doesn't mean you have to.
Second, anyone can call up an Internet provider and have them come and install a wireless router for wifi in their homes. Coupled with Apple's notorious ease of setup & use, it will be dead simple for a computer illiterate to get one of these things up and running. Besides, the original poster said that anyone would be able to pick it up and just use it and I firmly agree. It'll be easier than using an ATM.
Last, I think this fits in perfectly as a family device. For what it is, there's absolutely no need for multiple user login - not for web surfing, reading books, playing games, looking at photos or watching video; the primary uses for the device.
In other words a device for dumb couch potatoes?
Yes, that's right. Anyone who isn't glued to a high-powered PC writing code is a dumb couch potato. Well reasoned.
In other words a device for dumb couch potatoes?
Ummm.... yeah, maybe, but you need to try and help some completely computer illiterate person check their email first. Not only is it unbelievably frustrating but also a real eyeopener. Like when a window disappears behind another... I have seen people just give up at this point and hit the on off button on their computer in order to resolve this problem. But yes, if they are accustomed to using hotmail and have a router all set up, then yeah.
And that's the whole point of the simple, intuitive interface. It just makes sense - poke the message you want to read and if you really get lost, just press the one and only button and start again - poke the mail thingy, poke the message, swipe stuff up and down... easy.
Apples marketing slogan used to be "Think Different".
I'll be ordering them for photographers in the field. Shoot - transfer to iPad to have a nice look and email them back to the office. There's one "power user" application that took me about ten seconds of looking at the iPad pages on the Apple web site to come up with.
Think different.
I agree. And with an LED-backlit IPS screen, photo stuff is going to look awesome on it. -Probably even better than a macbook pro.