Gartner lowers PC sales forecast, says Apple's iPad 'redefining' computing

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Demand for tablet-style devices -- particularly Apple's iPad -- is expected to weaken demand for traditional PCs in 2011 and 2012, research firm Gartner has predicted.



Gartner announced on Thursday that it has lowered its PC sales forecast for the next two years, as it sees increased diversity in the mobile computing space taking away sales from traditional computers and laptops. Analysts said that the iPad and other "media tablets" are "redefining" the PC's place in consumers' lives.



Gartner sees worldwide PC shipments reaching 387.8 million in 2011, a 10.5 percent increase from 2010. But that number is also a major reduction from Gartner's previous projection of 15.9 percent growth in the current year.



The company also sees PC shipments totaling 440.6 million units in 2012, which would be a 13.6 percent increase from its projected total for 2011. The new numbers are also a decrease from a previously announced outlook of 14.8 percent growth in 2012.



"These results reflect marked reductions in expected near-term unit growth based on expectations of weaker consumer mobile PC demand, in no small part because of the near-term weakness expected in China's mobile PC market, but also because of a general loss in consumer enthusiasm for mobile PCs," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.



Now, the research firm sees users embracing PC alternatives like the iPad. Apple itself this week, in unveiling the iPad 2, repeatedly referred to its touchscreen tablet as a "post-PC device."







"We expect growing consumer enthusiasm for mobile PC alternatives, such as the iPad and other media tablets, to dramatically slow home mobile PC sales, especially in mature markets," said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner.



"We once thought that mobile PC growth would continue to be sustained by consumers buying second and third mobile PCs as personal devices. However, we now believe that consumers are not only likely to forgo additional mobile PC buys but are also likely to extend the lifetimes of the mobile PCs they retain as they adopt media tablets and other mobile PC alternatives as their primary mobile device."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 114
    povilaspovilas Posts: 473member
    Not bad for a big iPod touch huh.
  • Reply 2 of 114
    cimcim Posts: 197member
    iPad is a mobile PC.
  • Reply 3 of 114
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 4,698member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Povilas View Post


    Not bad for a big iPod touch huh.



    But...but....but... it doesn't have HDMI ports, USB ports, Thunderbolt ports, a Homer-Mobile switch, no keyboard, no retina.... it'll never sell I tell you!!!



    </hallucination>
  • Reply 4 of 114
    kezkez Posts: 1member
    "Gartner sees worldwide PC shipments reaching 38.7 million in 2011"? Don't you mean 387 million?
  • Reply 5 of 114
    a_greera_greer Posts: 4,594member
    First off, for what it is, the ipad and ipad 2 are very cool, that said, is anyone else alarmed about how fast people seem to be saying that this is the new computing? these "tablet and smartphones will kill PC" talk frighten me, there is no openness on these devices: can you run browser addins like noscript or adblock on android or IOS? can you change the default web browser? the default email client?



    The lock peice also bugs me. if I buyu hardware, I dont want to be told what network it can or cannot connect to arbitrarily, I dont want my vendor or acrrier blocking updates and such...imagine if Comcast could say "we dont want you to have feature x of OSX or Windows 7" and they could force you to not have that piece, that would never stand, yet we take it in phones and tablets? why?
  • Reply 6 of 114
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by CIM View Post


    iPad is a mobile PC.



    The utterly pointless debate over whether the iPad is or is not a PC will begin here.
  • Reply 7 of 114
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    The utterly pointless debate over whether the iPad is or is not a PC will begin here.



    The iPad can't be a PC... it doesn't have Flash!
  • Reply 8 of 114
    paul94544paul94544 Posts: 1,027member
    A tribute to INXS



    Its the end of the World (Microsoft)

    as we know it

    and I Feeeeeeel fine!



    yipeeee





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kez View Post


    "Gartner sees worldwide PC shipments reaching 38.7 million in 2011"? Don't you mean 387 million?



  • Reply 9 of 114
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    The utterly pointless debate over whether the iPad is or is not a PC will begin here.





    agreed- perhaps the debate would be less contentious if it were centred around the question of whether or not the average user, who principally consumes media only requires a device like an iPad. The iPad does what 95%(number picked for dramatic affect ) of 'computer' users actually do. Content creators on the other hand obviously need appropriate tools - being the 'PC' (for the moment that is until Apple redefine that space as well)
  • Reply 10 of 114
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


    The iPad can't be a PC... it doesn't have Flash!



    That's one of the things that makes it better than a PC.
  • Reply 11 of 114
    troyptroyp Posts: 3member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post


    A tribute to INXS



    Its the end of the World (Microsoft)

    as we know it

    and I Feeeeeeel fine!



    yipeeee



    That was actually REM not INXS.
  • Reply 12 of 114
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post


    A tribute to REM



    Its the end of the World (Adobe)

    as we know it

    and I Feeeeeeel fine!



    yipeeee



    There. Fixed it for you.
  • Reply 13 of 114
    jingojingo Posts: 93member
    HA! Take that all the legions of imbeciles who I used to argue with about whether or not there was a market for tablets. I always said the problem was simply lack of vision on their part, and when someone (ie Apple) did the product properly it would be a humungous success, and here we are in the here and now and it's really happened.



    Take that all you people out there (and you know who you are!) who simply lacked vision!!!!! I can't tell you how gratified I am that they all have to eat their words now.
  • Reply 14 of 114
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by a_greer View Post


    First off, for what it is, the ipad and ipad 2 are very cool, that said, is anyone else alarmed about how fast people seem to be saying that this is the new computing? these "tablet and smartphones will kill PC" talk frighten me, there is no openness on these devices: can you run browser addins like noscript or adblock on android or IOS? can you change the default web browser? the default email client?



    The lock peice also bugs me. if I buyu hardware, I dont want to be told what network it can or cannot connect to arbitrarily, I dont want my vendor or acrrier blocking updates and such...imagine if Comcast could say "we dont want you to have feature x of OSX or Windows 7" and they could force you to not have that piece, that would never stand, yet we take it in phones and tablets? why?



    Phone carriers heavily subsidize the cost of smartphones with contracts, so they have much more weight. Comcast didn't pay for my MacBook Pro. Also, your phone is more or less tied to one carrier - a computer can go from your home to the library to Starbucks and it doesn't matter which ISP you're using.
  • Reply 15 of 114
    axualaxual Posts: 244member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Povilas View Post


    Not bad for a big iPod touch huh.



    Indeed, you are correct.
  • Reply 16 of 114
    anonymouseanonymouse Posts: 6,581member
    Two things come to mind when reading this article:



    1. Gartner is always wrong, even when they are accidentally partially right.



    2. The iPad will inevitably have some effect on PC sales.



    Cognitive dissonance, I know. How to make sense of it?



    I think the answer is that it may well affect "mobile PC" sales negatively, but there may be a corresponding positive effect on desktop PC sales.



    Particularly for personal use, notebook and, especially, netbook computers have always represented a compromise that gave users the worst of both worlds. Smaller screens and less powerful processors handicapped portable computer users, unless they also invested in external monitors to overcome at least that issue. They are still heavier than is really comfortable to carry around: compared to an iPad, you really know when you are hauling a laptop. (Apple's MBAs being a somewhat unique exception in this latter regard.)



    What I think a lot of people will begin to do is, as they begin to replace their "traditional" computers, opt for desktops in greater numbers than has been the case in the recent past, and buy tablets (primarily iPads) for their portable computing needs, and smartphones will satisfy their ultra-ultra-portable/pocketable needs.



    The laptop craze has been, in my view, something of a fad. It was "cool" to have a laptop. But, most of the people buying them didn't really need them, as such, to do serious work on. Moving them around the house, take them with you on a trip to check email and browse the web, sure, but very few of the people who have been buying personal laptops aren't doing much more with them when out and about.



    So, now, they can get iPads, which are ideally suited for the actual uses people have for them as mobile devices, and a desktop which gives them more processing power and a bigger screen -- which equals better productivity -- for the tasks they actually use them for at home. And they can do this, get the best of both worlds, for essentially the same price as it would cost them to buy a decent laptop, which was always a compromise choice.



    Netbook buyers may just decide to entirely eschew new PCs and opt only for tablets. Cost conscious, and mostly not using them for anything serious anyway, a tablet solution may be just fine for them. Unless, of course, the netbook was already a companion to a desktop system, in which case they already have half of the ideal solution.
  • Reply 17 of 114
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by orange whip View Post


    agreed- perhaps the debate would be less contentious if it were centred around the question of whether or not the average user, who principally consumes media only requires a device like an iPad. The iPad does what 95%(number picked for dramatic affect ) of 'computer' users actually do. Content creators on the other hand obviously need appropriate tools - being the 'PC' (for the moment that is until Apple redefine that space as well)



    I was super impressed by the new iPad GargeBand - I'll make a final judgement when I see it in person, but it looks great. It's a symbol of the many advantages the iPad has over PCs. Is the iOS GarageBand as purely powerful as the one in iLife? Probably not. But can a notebook turn into a virtual drumset or turntable with touch controls? Nope!



    Maybe I'm being shortsighted, but it would be REALLY cool to use the iPad as a user input device for professional level apps. For example, if my iPad and Mac Pro are on the same network, I can tell the Mac Pro what to do through my iPad. Cutting clips in Final Cut Pro, for example, would be so much more fun and easy with touch controls. Then all of the heavy rendering and moving around of gigabytes of files is done by the Mac Pro. This would also allow you to do these complex tasks on the road, without bringing your computer everywhere.



    What do you guys think
  • Reply 18 of 114
    sheffsheff Posts: 1,407member
    IMovie demo was absolutely mind blowing. For a regular user there is really not much more in terms of features that one might want. Honestly since I only do home movie type stuff I may transition to iPad and do edits right on the spot or soon after, at least the basic stuff.
  • Reply 19 of 114
    2stepbay2stepbay Posts: 111member
    Everything in the tech world is getting reshuffled. As Steve Jobs said yesterday "Post PC".

    This is not a "trend"...it's a major shift in how people communicate with each other.

    This PC conversation will seem inane before 2015.
  • Reply 20 of 114
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,875member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by a_greer View Post


    First off, for what it is, the ipad and ipad 2 are very cool, that said, is anyone else alarmed about how fast people seem to be saying that this is the new computing? these "tablet and smartphones will kill PC" talk frighten me, there is no openness on these devices: can you run browser addins like noscript or adblock on android or IOS? can you change the default web browser? the default email client?



    The lock peice also bugs me. if I buyu hardware, I dont want to be told what network it can or cannot connect to arbitrarily, I dont want my vendor or acrrier blocking updates and such...imagine if Comcast could say "we dont want you to have feature x of OSX or Windows 7" and they could force you to not have that piece, that would never stand, yet we take it in phones and tablets? why?



    Honestly, most people don't care. And guess what, it doesn't matter. People who want what you do will continue to use a traditional computer for most of what they do, and most others will not.



    There's been a big mistake in understanding what most people want and need. They don't want or need something that's very open. They do like cell phones, closed or not. Android doesn't sell because it's thought to be open, but merely because there are so many manufacturers with so many phone models. Otherwise, so what?
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