The reality is actually opposite to what you say in this post. For iOS, it's VERY easy to pirate apps. All you have to do is jailbreak and get installous and you're laughing. You can get any app, no problem, and work almost always.
With android, you have to try and hunt down apps on torrent websites, with most of them not being available, and when they are, most of the time they don't work (formatted for a different CPU/GPU, different resolution, etc.).
So with android, I actually buy a lot of apps because I have no choice, but with iOS the story is different.
I was talking about apps, not music.
/sarcasm
Piracy is of little concern, because a small percentage jailbreak, and a smaller percentage use installous, and a smaller percentage have the ethical flexibility to steal apps.
The problem that we are discussing here is that nobody buys android apps in the first place.
Its nice to get a clear unbiased statement from someone with no stake in any of this. Well since he stated it, obviously it must be true. Time to sell that iphone now.
... and I predict that Android will actually start losing market share by this time next year.
iOS might not end up the dominant OS... but I sure as hell don't see it at 10% in 5 years or even 10 years. I see iOS taking at least 30% of the mobile OS market in 5 years time with WinMobile not that far behind... leaving Android with the rest.
The tide will turn... but not the way that Eric is predicting.
I'm interested to know - why Windows Phone 7. It's not exactly setting the world alight right now. Is Microsoft going to pull off a deus ex machina and suddenly gain a load of marketshare or is this wishful thinking? It's looking increasingly tough for Microsoft to gain the mindshare needed to make the product matter, especially when the Verizon rep is going to steer the customer towards their branded Droid handset. Although Windows 8 could change things.
I do admit I like to play devil's advocate, but I'm of the opinion that Android truly is a rushed product. Interesting that they were rushing to beat Apple, when really all they had to do was beat Microsoft. They could have spent an extra year or two developing the thing and still would have beat them to market. They could have avoided the lawsuits and maybe even thought things through properly (i.e. addressed issues like fragmentation and lag before putting it out). Missed opportunity.
It may (not) be very easy for you (to believe), but the vast majority of jailbreakers don't pirate?
Excellent point. On top of that, In order to steal it, you have to find somebody who bought it in the first place, Who also has the ethical flexibility to allow you to steal it.
this all belies the fact that the app was purchased in the first place. My whole point is that all the data shows that people spend money on iOS much more freely than they do on android
Google Chairman Eric Schmidt has said he believes mobile developers will prioritize the Android platform over Apple's iOS in the next six month...
He said he believes the high volume of Android shipments, which has given Google the largest share of worldwide smartphone sales, will win over developers...
"Ultimately, application vendors are driven by volume, and volume is favored by the open approach Google is taking," Schmidt said. "There are so many manufacturers working to deliver Android phones globally. Whether you like Android or not, you will support that platform, and maybe you'll even deliver it first."
After one audience member complained that mobile applications frequently appear on Apple's iOS App Store first, Schmidt then went on to predict that six months from now the roles will be reversed. He said he believes Android 4.0, known by its code name Ice Cream Sandwich, will put Android in the leadership position for application developers.
While Android may be leading in current activations, one category where it lags behind Apple is developer revenue. One study publicized last month estimated that Apple's iOS platform takes in about 90 percent of all dollars spent on mobile devices, while Google's Android market has generated about 7 percent of the gross revenue of the iOS App Store.
Earlier this year, Canalys estimated that mobile application stores will top $14 billion in direct revenue in 2012. While the volume of applications downloaded on Android is expected to surpass the iOS App Store, iOS is expected to generate $2.86 billion in application revenue by 2016, compared to just $1.5 billion on Android.
Schmidt also revealed on Wednesday that about 200 million Android phones have been activated to date, and 550,000 new devices are activated daily. In comparison, Apple executives revealed in October that sales of iOS devices, which include the iPhone, iPad and iPod touch, surpassed a quarter of a billion last quarter.
Schmidt also reportedly declined to comment on whether Google's Android has copied iOS features. But he did state that "Android was founded before the iPhone was."
Development of Android began before Apple introduced the iPhone, when the mobile operating system was seen as a challenger to the then-market-leading Research in Motion BlackBerry lineup. But changes to Android, including the addition of a touch-centric interface, led Apple co-founder Steve Jobs to accuse Google of stealing from iOS. Jobs said to biographer Walter Isaacson that he would spend his "last dying breath" fighting Android, as he believed it was a "stolen product."
I'm interested to know - why Windows Phone 7. It's not exactly setting the world alight right now. Is Microsoft going to pull off a deus ex machina and suddenly gain a load of marketshare or is this wishful thinking? It's looking increasingly tough for Microsoft to gain the mindshare needed to make the product matter, especially when the Verizon rep is going to steer the customer towards their branded Droid handset. Although Windows 8 could change things.
I do admit I like to play devil's advocate, but I'm of the opinion that Android truly is a rushed product. Interesting that they were rushing to beat Apple, when really all they had to do was beat Microsoft. They could have spent an extra year or two developing the thing and still would have beat them to market. They could have avoided the lawsuits and maybe even thought things through properly (i.e. addressed issues like fragmentation and lag before putting it out). Missed opportunity.
Oh... I don't think that Mango will be the one but remember, I'm talking about a 5 year window and MS still has a huge presence in the enterprise market. The early 80s is a good example. IBM had basically been left behind in the personal computer market in the 70s but its presence in the enterprise market made its Jr. a darling in the market and the other company with the funny name was left in the dust from that point forward (there are other factors, of course). As much as I don't take too much stock in surveys, there are polls that have been taken showing that people are waiting for a Windows phone.
Android is gaining the market share battle by sheer numbers, hardware specs and a lot of spiffs. Smaller companies love android for development because they don't have to go through the Apple circus. The more small companies that make a one off app for their company, the more Android has a chance of gaining mind share.
Regardless of the seeming insurmountable lead in market share by Android at present one must remember how they got there. They depend on multiple vendors. MS has the muscle to convince vendors to hedge their bets and if MS can come up with an even more credible OS in the next couple of years then I believe they have a good chance to push forward in the market. Vendors go to the money. ... and the public can be very gullible... as witnessed, imho, by the success of Android.
"There are so many manufacturers working to deliver Android phones globally. Whether you like Android or not, you will support that platform, and maybe you'll even deliver it first."
HO boy. This is Schmidt's Microsoft Moment. And by that, I mean this is how Microsoft slid into stagnation and mediocrity. We don't have to ever improve. We don't have to be hungry. We don't have to be reaching relentlessly for better. Windows is everywhere, and whether you like it or not, you will support that platform.
I don't think we're quite there yet with Android. Back in October, John Carmack of id Software was asked about an Android port of Rage, and Carmack's reply was basically, show me where other game developers have made any real money off Android, or something to that effect. He saw no clear business case to pursue it.
Why should you expect that ? If you buy MS Office for a PC, should you expect to get a free copy if you switch to a Mac ?
No. However, if MS were to do what Adobe apparently does, i.e., let you cross-upgrade at the upgrade price? something many are not aware of, a lot of die hard PC-Office users would love to be able to do.
I'm one of the biggest Apple fans in the world, I've been buying every generation of their products since 1980. And this all seems like "deja vu all over again." Every time Apple creates a great product, with plenty of awesome development tools (I've worked with many of them), and even programs to curate the user experience. But in the long run, they always come in a distant second place. Alone, they simply can't compete with an entire industry.
I don't believe Schmidt's time frame is right, but I really don't see why this ride around the carousel is going to be different from the last. iOS will live and thrive like the Mac, but in 1, 3, or 5 years I suspect a single company can't compete against the entire Android hardware development mob. iOs will become the 10% world-wide market share in hardware and applications will be forced to follow.
Downer I know, but history does tend to repeat itself.
why are you overlooking the iPod? It dominated and continues to dominate the MP3 player market. Apple's current market share looks a heck of a lot more like iPod than it ever did for Macintosh. Here's the october mobile market share chart.
Not quite what we've been led to believe, huh? Because it includes all iOS devices instead of just restricting things to the area Android has moved lots of units by mostly giving them away. Of course, this chart reflects people actually using their devices vs simply having bought one.
The real future for many applications on all the platforms lies instead in hybrid apps. Which is an app wrapping a browser interface and HTML5 will provide the interactivity. This provides the immediacy and convenience of an installed app but simplifies the app development and updating process - you're customers are always on the latest version. Only apps requiring true native hardware access (mainly games) will be native apps.
Hasn't this topic already been beaten to death? Every few months someone somewhere (pundits, analist, CEO's) say Android is going to beat-up on iOS, but it hasn't happened yet.
Actually, it has. But the arguments AppleInsider posters continue to make keep changing. Many here argued Android would never outsell iPhone. Well, that happened. It's only a matter of time before the Android Market is larger than the iTunes store. It may not happen in 6 months, but it will happen eventually.
I'm interested to know - why Windows Phone 7. It's not exactly setting the world alight right now. Is Microsoft going to pull off a deus ex machina and suddenly gain a load of marketshare or is this wishful thinking? It's looking increasingly tough for Microsoft to gain the mindshare needed to make the product matter, especially when the Verizon rep is going to steer the customer towards their branded Droid handset. Although Windows 8 could change things.
I do admit I like to play devil's advocate, but I'm of the opinion that Android truly is a rushed product. Interesting that they were rushing to beat Apple, when really all they had to do was beat Microsoft. They could have spent an extra year or two developing the thing and still would have beat them to market. They could have avoided the lawsuits and maybe even thought things through properly (i.e. addressed issues like fragmentation and lag before putting it out). Missed opportunity.
I agree that Microsoft Windows Phones will steal market share from Google Android phones though perhaps not 30% of market share in one year.
1. Most consumers appear to not care about which operating system they use with the exception of Apple consumers.
2. While Microsoft Windows Phone isn't aesthetically pleasing to me I do like some of the features available and although those features aren't exceptional enough for me to desire the phones I do hope Apple is considering Microsoft a serious competitor.
3. While we (Apple faithful) like to believe that Apple corners the market on consumer retention, Microsoft does have their adherents and a broad, if poorly integrated, ecosystem (Bing, Internet Explorer, Xbox Live, Zune). In fact, if Microsoft were willing to have a consistent product naming convention and tightly integrate their services they could be a real competitor to Apple.
4. Nokia is still one of the largest phone manufacturers with an unrivaled presence in Europe.
5. Beyond Nokia, other vendors may prefer Microsoft if Microsoft can resolve the issues plaguing Google. Microsoft has had plenty of time to consider those issues and develop an approach that avoids those issues.
Regardless of the seeming insurmountable lead in market share by Android at present one must remember how they got there. They depend on multiple vendors. MS has the muscle to convince vendors to hedge their bets and if MS can come up with an even more credible OS in the next couple of years then I believe they have a good chance to push forward in the market. Vendors go to the money. ... and the public can be very gullible... as witnessed, imho, by the success of Android.
I'd correct that statement and say carriers. While the iPhone took power away from the carriers (aside from the whole exclusivity thing over in the US), Android put it right back in. You could say, they made a deal with the devil to gain a foothold in the market. Android could possibly have still been a bit player if not for Verizon's huge marketing push with the Droid campaign.
I'm also not sure that the market will be as split as people make out. Apple and Samsung are the only companies showing growth in profits. HTC had a bad year (forecasts down this quarter) and may have lost their mojo. Sooner or later companies are going to drop out of the smartphone race (RIMM, Nokia and LG to name a few). Could be like the iPod market.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macbook Pro
I agree that Microsoft Windows Phones will steal market share from Google Android phones though perhaps not 30% of market share in one year.
1. Most consumers appear to not care about which operating system they use with the exception of Apple consumers. Exactly - they'll buy what the sales rep in the store tells them to, which is Androids with LTE, 4G, dual-core and support for more than one screen resolution. Microsoft have a lot of ground to make up
2. While Microsoft Windows Phone isn't aesthetically pleasing to me I do like some of the features available and although those features aren't exceptional enough for me to desire the phones I do hope Apple is considering Microsoft a serious competitor.
3. While we (Apple faithful) like to believe that Apple corners the market on consumer retention, Microsoft does have their adherents and a broad, if poorly integrated, ecosystem (Bing, Internet Explorer, Xbox Live, Zune). In fact, if Microsoft were willing to have a consistent product naming convention and tightly integrate their services they could be a real competitor to Apple. Yes, but we know Microsoft has poor execution. So how will they steal all this marketshare from Android again?
4. Nokia is still one of the largest phone manufacturers with an unrivaled presence in Europe. Agreed, but they're on a downward spiral, which will be hard to recover from.
5. Beyond Nokia, other vendors may prefer Microsoft if Microsoft can resolve the issues plaguing Google. Microsoft has had plenty of time to consider those issues and develop an approach that avoids those issues.The majority of which can't even turn a profit using a 'free' OS. Why would they pay Microsoft?
I don't think Microsoft haven't been able to apply what they've learnt so far. It seems quite a few proponents of Windows Phones are Apple fans who wouldn't buy the product regardless. I also think, until Windows 8 comes out, their departure from a 'traditional' interface isn't doing them any favours.
How is Ice Cream sandwich going to solve all the problems developers have with the platform? Is there something I don't know? Is it going to eliminate fragmentation, remove security holes, create a decent app store, and cause people who buy apps to flock to the platform? Android attracts people who want a better phone, but not people who want to run apps. If this ever changes it will be much farther out then 6 monthes. Besides, who will target the new SDK if they want to also support the Kindle Fire. That at least has a little greater chance of attracting someone who might buy an app. Unfortunately the Fire is designed to run smartphone apps and not tablet apps which will likely limit selection to just games. The graphics performance of the fire will limit it to mostly casual games. Mobile gamers will still choose the iPad or iPhone over anything else out there.
Yeah. There were several. Although at least some of them may have been innocent in respect that they may have changed their mind. The Mac Mini was a notable one. However, Apple's statements have always been about products. They have never lied about the performance of their products. This article you mention has many lies and half truths in it though. For example the antenna issue was blown out of proportion by the media. Apple does not measure sales by products sold in to the channel. They measure actual sales. Activation numbers didn't add up with checks in the channel according to Steve Jobs. Try to prove him wrong. He assumed they were counting upgrades, but that doesn't mean something else didn't throw their numbers off. Google hasn't released actual data to back up their claim that he is wrong. Google says their data is right, but they may be counting peak activations in a day or averaging over 5 days or something like that.
Comments
The reality is actually opposite to what you say in this post. For iOS, it's VERY easy to pirate apps. All you have to do is jailbreak and get installous and you're laughing. You can get any app, no problem, and work almost always.
With android, you have to try and hunt down apps on torrent websites, with most of them not being available, and when they are, most of the time they don't work (formatted for a different CPU/GPU, different resolution, etc.).
So with android, I actually buy a lot of apps because I have no choice, but with iOS the story is different.
I was talking about apps, not music.
/sarcasm
Piracy is of little concern, because a small percentage jailbreak, and a smaller percentage use installous, and a smaller percentage have the ethical flexibility to steal apps.
The problem that we are discussing here is that nobody buys android apps in the first place.
... and I predict that Android will actually start losing market share by this time next year.
iOS might not end up the dominant OS... but I sure as hell don't see it at 10% in 5 years or even 10 years. I see iOS taking at least 30% of the mobile OS market in 5 years time with WinMobile not that far behind... leaving Android with the rest.
The tide will turn... but not the way that Eric is predicting.
I'm interested to know - why Windows Phone 7. It's not exactly setting the world alight right now. Is Microsoft going to pull off a deus ex machina and suddenly gain a load of marketshare or is this wishful thinking? It's looking increasingly tough for Microsoft to gain the mindshare needed to make the product matter, especially when the Verizon rep is going to steer the customer towards their branded Droid handset. Although Windows 8 could change things.
I do admit I like to play devil's advocate, but I'm of the opinion that Android truly is a rushed product. Interesting that they were rushing to beat Apple, when really all they had to do was beat Microsoft. They could have spent an extra year or two developing the thing and still would have beat them to market. They could have avoided the lawsuits and maybe even thought things through properly (i.e. addressed issues like fragmentation and lag before putting it out). Missed opportunity.
It may (not) be very easy for you (to believe), but the vast majority of jailbreakers don't pirate?
Excellent point. On top of that, In order to steal it, you have to find somebody who bought it in the first place, Who also has the ethical flexibility to allow you to steal it.
this all belies the fact that the app was purchased in the first place. My whole point is that all the data shows that people spend money on iOS much more freely than they do on android
And, it is feasible!
Google Chairman Eric Schmidt has said he believes mobile developers will prioritize the Android platform over Apple's iOS in the next six month...
He said he believes the high volume of Android shipments, which has given Google the largest share of worldwide smartphone sales, will win over developers...
"Ultimately, application vendors are driven by volume, and volume is favored by the open approach Google is taking," Schmidt said. "There are so many manufacturers working to deliver Android phones globally. Whether you like Android or not, you will support that platform, and maybe you'll even deliver it first."
After one audience member complained that mobile applications frequently appear on Apple's iOS App Store first, Schmidt then went on to predict that six months from now the roles will be reversed. He said he believes Android 4.0, known by its code name Ice Cream Sandwich, will put Android in the leadership position for application developers.
While Android may be leading in current activations, one category where it lags behind Apple is developer revenue. One study publicized last month estimated that Apple's iOS platform takes in about 90 percent of all dollars spent on mobile devices, while Google's Android market has generated about 7 percent of the gross revenue of the iOS App Store.
Earlier this year, Canalys estimated that mobile application stores will top $14 billion in direct revenue in 2012. While the volume of applications downloaded on Android is expected to surpass the iOS App Store, iOS is expected to generate $2.86 billion in application revenue by 2016, compared to just $1.5 billion on Android.
Schmidt also revealed on Wednesday that about 200 million Android phones have been activated to date, and 550,000 new devices are activated daily. In comparison, Apple executives revealed in October that sales of iOS devices, which include the iPhone, iPad and iPod touch, surpassed a quarter of a billion last quarter.
Schmidt also reportedly declined to comment on whether Google's Android has copied iOS features. But he did state that "Android was founded before the iPhone was."
Development of Android began before Apple introduced the iPhone, when the mobile operating system was seen as a challenger to the then-market-leading Research in Motion BlackBerry lineup. But changes to Android, including the addition of a touch-centric interface, led Apple co-founder Steve Jobs to accuse Google of stealing from iOS. Jobs said to biographer Walter Isaacson that he would spend his "last dying breath" fighting Android, as he believed it was a "stolen product."
I'm interested to know - why Windows Phone 7. It's not exactly setting the world alight right now. Is Microsoft going to pull off a deus ex machina and suddenly gain a load of marketshare or is this wishful thinking? It's looking increasingly tough for Microsoft to gain the mindshare needed to make the product matter, especially when the Verizon rep is going to steer the customer towards their branded Droid handset. Although Windows 8 could change things.
I do admit I like to play devil's advocate, but I'm of the opinion that Android truly is a rushed product. Interesting that they were rushing to beat Apple, when really all they had to do was beat Microsoft. They could have spent an extra year or two developing the thing and still would have beat them to market. They could have avoided the lawsuits and maybe even thought things through properly (i.e. addressed issues like fragmentation and lag before putting it out). Missed opportunity.
Oh... I don't think that Mango will be the one but remember, I'm talking about a 5 year window and MS still has a huge presence in the enterprise market. The early 80s is a good example. IBM had basically been left behind in the personal computer market in the 70s but its presence in the enterprise market made its Jr. a darling in the market and the other company with the funny name was left in the dust from that point forward (there are other factors, of course). As much as I don't take too much stock in surveys, there are polls that have been taken showing that people are waiting for a Windows phone.
Android is gaining the market share battle by sheer numbers, hardware specs and a lot of spiffs. Smaller companies love android for development because they don't have to go through the Apple circus. The more small companies that make a one off app for their company, the more Android has a chance of gaining mind share.
Regardless of the seeming insurmountable lead in market share by Android at present one must remember how they got there. They depend on multiple vendors. MS has the muscle to convince vendors to hedge their bets and if MS can come up with an even more credible OS in the next couple of years then I believe they have a good chance to push forward in the market. Vendors go to the money. ... and the public can be very gullible... as witnessed, imho, by the success of Android.
"There are so many manufacturers working to deliver Android phones globally. Whether you like Android or not, you will support that platform, and maybe you'll even deliver it first."
HO boy. This is Schmidt's Microsoft Moment. And by that, I mean this is how Microsoft slid into stagnation and mediocrity. We don't have to ever improve. We don't have to be hungry. We don't have to be reaching relentlessly for better. Windows is everywhere, and whether you like it or not, you will support that platform.
I don't think we're quite there yet with Android. Back in October, John Carmack of id Software was asked about an Android port of Rage, and Carmack's reply was basically, show me where other game developers have made any real money off Android, or something to that effect. He saw no clear business case to pursue it.
Why should you expect that ? If you buy MS Office for a PC, should you expect to get a free copy if you switch to a Mac ?
No. However, if MS were to do what Adobe apparently does, i.e., let you cross-upgrade at the upgrade price? something many are not aware of, a lot of die hard PC-Office users would love to be able to do.
I'm one of the biggest Apple fans in the world, I've been buying every generation of their products since 1980. And this all seems like "deja vu all over again." Every time Apple creates a great product, with plenty of awesome development tools (I've worked with many of them), and even programs to curate the user experience. But in the long run, they always come in a distant second place. Alone, they simply can't compete with an entire industry.
I don't believe Schmidt's time frame is right, but I really don't see why this ride around the carousel is going to be different from the last. iOS will live and thrive like the Mac, but in 1, 3, or 5 years I suspect a single company can't compete against the entire Android hardware development mob. iOs will become the 10% world-wide market share in hardware and applications will be forced to follow.
Downer I know, but history does tend to repeat itself.
why are you overlooking the iPod? It dominated and continues to dominate the MP3 player market. Apple's current market share looks a heck of a lot more like iPod than it ever did for Macintosh. Here's the october mobile market share chart.
Not quite what we've been led to believe, huh? Because it includes all iOS devices instead of just restricting things to the area Android has moved lots of units by mostly giving them away. Of course, this chart reflects people actually using their devices vs simply having bought one.
Schmidt and monkey boy Ballmer need to get together and procreate. That's an outcome we could make money off of.
Well, making money is the only thing giant corporations like MicroSoft and Google care about!
Hasn't this topic already been beaten to death? Every few months someone somewhere (pundits, analist, CEO's) say Android is going to beat-up on iOS, but it hasn't happened yet.
Actually, it has. But the arguments AppleInsider posters continue to make keep changing. Many here argued Android would never outsell iPhone. Well, that happened. It's only a matter of time before the Android Market is larger than the iTunes store. It may not happen in 6 months, but it will happen eventually.
I'm interested to know - why Windows Phone 7. It's not exactly setting the world alight right now. Is Microsoft going to pull off a deus ex machina and suddenly gain a load of marketshare or is this wishful thinking? It's looking increasingly tough for Microsoft to gain the mindshare needed to make the product matter, especially when the Verizon rep is going to steer the customer towards their branded Droid handset. Although Windows 8 could change things.
I do admit I like to play devil's advocate, but I'm of the opinion that Android truly is a rushed product. Interesting that they were rushing to beat Apple, when really all they had to do was beat Microsoft. They could have spent an extra year or two developing the thing and still would have beat them to market. They could have avoided the lawsuits and maybe even thought things through properly (i.e. addressed issues like fragmentation and lag before putting it out). Missed opportunity.
I agree that Microsoft Windows Phones will steal market share from Google Android phones though perhaps not 30% of market share in one year.
1. Most consumers appear to not care about which operating system they use with the exception of Apple consumers.
2. While Microsoft Windows Phone isn't aesthetically pleasing to me I do like some of the features available and although those features aren't exceptional enough for me to desire the phones I do hope Apple is considering Microsoft a serious competitor.
3. While we (Apple faithful) like to believe that Apple corners the market on consumer retention, Microsoft does have their adherents and a broad, if poorly integrated, ecosystem (Bing, Internet Explorer, Xbox Live, Zune). In fact, if Microsoft were willing to have a consistent product naming convention and tightly integrate their services they could be a real competitor to Apple.
4. Nokia is still one of the largest phone manufacturers with an unrivaled presence in Europe.
5. Beyond Nokia, other vendors may prefer Microsoft if Microsoft can resolve the issues plaguing Google. Microsoft has had plenty of time to consider those issues and develop an approach that avoids those issues.
Funny, CEO Steve Jobs never used to make fake predictions and tell outright lies to the media and his customers, at least I can't think of any.
Actually, he did. Confirmation bias: you only remember what supports your arguments.
Check this article, just one of many. Steve Jobs told many lies, exaggerations, and half-truths, just as any other CEO does.
Steve Jobs' reality distortion takes its toll on truth
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/...toll-on-truth/
Regardless of the seeming insurmountable lead in market share by Android at present one must remember how they got there. They depend on multiple vendors. MS has the muscle to convince vendors to hedge their bets and if MS can come up with an even more credible OS in the next couple of years then I believe they have a good chance to push forward in the market. Vendors go to the money. ... and the public can be very gullible... as witnessed, imho, by the success of Android.
I'd correct that statement and say carriers. While the iPhone took power away from the carriers (aside from the whole exclusivity thing over in the US), Android put it right back in. You could say, they made a deal with the devil to gain a foothold in the market. Android could possibly have still been a bit player if not for Verizon's huge marketing push with the Droid campaign.
I'm also not sure that the market will be as split as people make out. Apple and Samsung are the only companies showing growth in profits. HTC had a bad year (forecasts down this quarter) and may have lost their mojo. Sooner or later companies are going to drop out of the smartphone race (RIMM, Nokia and LG to name a few). Could be like the iPod market.
I agree that Microsoft Windows Phones will steal market share from Google Android phones though perhaps not 30% of market share in one year.
1. Most consumers appear to not care about which operating system they use with the exception of Apple consumers. Exactly - they'll buy what the sales rep in the store tells them to, which is Androids with LTE, 4G, dual-core and support for more than one screen resolution. Microsoft have a lot of ground to make up
2. While Microsoft Windows Phone isn't aesthetically pleasing to me I do like some of the features available and although those features aren't exceptional enough for me to desire the phones I do hope Apple is considering Microsoft a serious competitor.
3. While we (Apple faithful) like to believe that Apple corners the market on consumer retention, Microsoft does have their adherents and a broad, if poorly integrated, ecosystem (Bing, Internet Explorer, Xbox Live, Zune). In fact, if Microsoft were willing to have a consistent product naming convention and tightly integrate their services they could be a real competitor to Apple. Yes, but we know Microsoft has poor execution. So how will they steal all this marketshare from Android again?
4. Nokia is still one of the largest phone manufacturers with an unrivaled presence in Europe. Agreed, but they're on a downward spiral, which will be hard to recover from.
5. Beyond Nokia, other vendors may prefer Microsoft if Microsoft can resolve the issues plaguing Google. Microsoft has had plenty of time to consider those issues and develop an approach that avoids those issues.The majority of which can't even turn a profit using a 'free' OS. Why would they pay Microsoft?
I don't think Microsoft haven't been able to apply what they've learnt so far. It seems quite a few proponents of Windows Phones are Apple fans who wouldn't buy the product regardless. I also think, until Windows 8 comes out, their departure from a 'traditional' interface isn't doing them any favours.
Actually, he did. Confirmation bias: you only remember what supports your arguments.
Check this article, just one of many. Steve Jobs told many lies, exaggerations, and half-truths, just as any other CEO does.
Steve Jobs' reality distortion takes its toll on truth
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/...toll-on-truth/
Yeah. There were several. Although at least some of them may have been innocent in respect that they may have changed their mind. The Mac Mini was a notable one. However, Apple's statements have always been about products. They have never lied about the performance of their products. This article you mention has many lies and half truths in it though. For example the antenna issue was blown out of proportion by the media. Apple does not measure sales by products sold in to the channel. They measure actual sales. Activation numbers didn't add up with checks in the channel according to Steve Jobs. Try to prove him wrong. He assumed they were counting upgrades, but that doesn't mean something else didn't throw their numbers off. Google hasn't released actual data to back up their claim that he is wrong. Google says their data is right, but they may be counting peak activations in a day or averaging over 5 days or something like that.