Kindle Fire cannibalized 1M to 2M iPad sales 'at most' this holiday
The launch of the $199 Amazon Kindle Fire had a detrimental effect on iPad sales for Apple, but the company is still expected to report record sales this quarter, a new report states.
Investment research firm Morgan Keenan on Tuesday trimmed its projected iPad sales for the holiday quarter from 16 million to 13 million. While less than previously expected, the 13 million total would easily best the record 11.2 million iPads Apple sold in the previous quarter.
Analyst Travis McCourt expects the iPad will generate 21.3 percent of revenue for Apple in the December quarter, up from 17.2 percent in the year-ago period, but also less than the 24.3 percent it represented in the September quarter. Part of his rationale for trimming projected iPad sales is Amazon's $199 Kindle Fire.
"Based on data from Amazon, we believe the Amazon Fire likely sold 4-5 million units this holiday season," McCourt said in a note to investors, "which probably means maybe 1-2 million cannibalized iPad sales at most."
Amazon revealed last week that it was selling more than a million Kindles per week leading up to Christmas. But the Kindle family includes Amazon's e-ink readers as well as the new Kindle Fire. Amazon did not provide specific sales data for any of its tablet-style hardware.
McCourt also on Tuesday increased his projected iPhone sales for the holiday quarter from 27 million to 29 million. He expects iPhone revenues will represent 47.5 percent of Apple's total revenues in the December quarter, up from 38.8 percent in the September quarter and 39.1 percent in the same period a year ago.
As for the Mac, McCourt has reduced his estimate from 4.9 million units to 4.8 million units over the holidays, which would be down from the 4.9 million Macs Apple sold in the September quarter. But that's a prediction that runs contrary to Apple's recent historical trends.
For example, a year ago Mac sales grew from 3.89 million in the September quarter to 4.1 million over the holidays. In 2009, Macs grew from 3 million sales to 3.36 million in the December quarter.
McCourt said 4.8 million Mac sales for Apple over the holidays would likely represent "another strong quarter of market share gains." He believes the global PC market will be largely flat year over year, while Apple will see 17 percent growth from 2010 over the same period.
Investment research firm Morgan Keenan on Tuesday trimmed its projected iPad sales for the holiday quarter from 16 million to 13 million. While less than previously expected, the 13 million total would easily best the record 11.2 million iPads Apple sold in the previous quarter.
Analyst Travis McCourt expects the iPad will generate 21.3 percent of revenue for Apple in the December quarter, up from 17.2 percent in the year-ago period, but also less than the 24.3 percent it represented in the September quarter. Part of his rationale for trimming projected iPad sales is Amazon's $199 Kindle Fire.
"Based on data from Amazon, we believe the Amazon Fire likely sold 4-5 million units this holiday season," McCourt said in a note to investors, "which probably means maybe 1-2 million cannibalized iPad sales at most."
Amazon revealed last week that it was selling more than a million Kindles per week leading up to Christmas. But the Kindle family includes Amazon's e-ink readers as well as the new Kindle Fire. Amazon did not provide specific sales data for any of its tablet-style hardware.
McCourt also on Tuesday increased his projected iPhone sales for the holiday quarter from 27 million to 29 million. He expects iPhone revenues will represent 47.5 percent of Apple's total revenues in the December quarter, up from 38.8 percent in the September quarter and 39.1 percent in the same period a year ago.
As for the Mac, McCourt has reduced his estimate from 4.9 million units to 4.8 million units over the holidays, which would be down from the 4.9 million Macs Apple sold in the September quarter. But that's a prediction that runs contrary to Apple's recent historical trends.
For example, a year ago Mac sales grew from 3.89 million in the September quarter to 4.1 million over the holidays. In 2009, Macs grew from 3 million sales to 3.36 million in the December quarter.
McCourt said 4.8 million Mac sales for Apple over the holidays would likely represent "another strong quarter of market share gains." He believes the global PC market will be largely flat year over year, while Apple will see 17 percent growth from 2010 over the same period.
Comments
I bet many of those Kindle Fire owners will end up getting an iPad after they get to play with their friends' iPads they got for Christmas.
and
what's the return rate of fire vs iPad
i've never talked with anyone that has returned an iPad, they only buy more
looking forward to the ipad 3 to get the ipad 2 refurb at lower price point for my mother in law first computer and ip 3 for my wife
It's ok...
I bet many of those Kindle Fire owners will end up getting an iPad after they get to play with their friends' iPads they got for Christmas.
That is the Official Apple Line.
But there is no hard information to prove anything like that.
i've never talked with anyone that has returned an iPad
I've never talked to anybody who has returned a Kindle.
Proof positive!
No, no, no! Only other Apple products can cannibalize iPad sales. "Cannibalize" means eating your own. It's a word with a precise meaning that provides a very convenient shortcut for referring to a specific situation when analyzing markets. The word you are looking for is "displaced" or "grabbed".
The writer saw cannibalize in a context close enough and since it's a newer word it's sexier than the other older words. Like the way decimate is sexier than devistate and emulate is sexier than imitate. Their meanings are secondary to their sexiness.
No, no, no! Only other Apple products can cannibalize iPad sales. "Cannibalize" means eating your own. . . ".
Right on, tundraboy. Do journalists not have to take any English courses or does Ingrish pass muster?
A few people might have gone cheap (chinched?) and bought at the fire sale, but they got what they bought and it wasn?t an iPad of any meaning, by drunk or by sober.
But I bet an even larger number than that will be turned, by getting a Kindle, in favor of an iPad eventually, in future. Because it?s a ?taste? that makes them appreciate the convenience of a tablet form factor, yet it?s also a bad experience?slow, lack of good apps, misc. glaring flaws (no volume buttons, awkward screen shape). Many of them will come to wish for an iPad, when they might never have really thought about a tablet before Amazon gave them a cheap taste.
And after all, their Kindle books can be read just fine on their future iPad! And they won?t have bought many Kindle apps to worry about losing because there just aren?t many and they don?t work so well that they?d be missed!
If someone gives up on their mediocre Kindle gets an iPad next time?but can still buy Kindle books?that?s a win for Amazon AND Apple. Amazon didn?t want the hardware sale anyway; that?s a loss for them. And Apple can stand to lose some e-book sales; they want to sell iPads (hardware + OS) first, and e-books are secondary to Apple.
My mom did get a Kindle Fire from my step father this weekend, and I used it a bit. After using the iPad, it really was too hard on the eyes and difficult to navigate. If you are into reading, the original Kindle is the smartest choice. The small text and lighted screen of the Fire gets very tiring on the eyes.
The browser on the Fire was a lot faster than I had read it to be. Very snappy. I did however find myself asking what do I do next with this? I felt that if books wasn't my main thing, then it wasn't very well laid out.
So the moral of the story is, if you want a Kindle, save your money and get the original and leave the color work and heavy lifting to the big boys.
Any mention of how many regular Kindles were "cannibalized" by the sale of the FIRE?
They don't actually publish their numbers, so we'll probably never know that.
I m waiting on some blogger to publish the rate of return of the kindle & Fire. I know it will be at least 10%. I was in a Staples 2 days after christmas and there were 3 people returning theirs.
I noticed that the KF 1 & 2 star ratings on Amazon.com have stagnated have held steady for the past few days. Guess Amazon must be blocking them They have been running at about 19.5%
Yeah, so much for the "oh, it's not an iPad competitor" theory
Any Android powered device is a direct competitor to any iOS device. Simple. Anyone who believes otherwise has their head buried in the ground.
No one of means wakes up in the morning and declares, "today, I think I'll buy the cheap emulator because it's a free country and I have a right to purchase something inferior if I want to dammit!"
The writer saw cannibalize in a context close enough and since it's a newer word it's sexier than the other older words. Like the way decimate is sexier than devistate and emulate is sexier than imitate. Their meanings are secondary to their sexiness.