Apple's smaller iPad forecast to become 'competition's worst nightmare'

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  • Reply 161 of 232
    nhtnht Posts: 4,522member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post



    This is THE main point of doing a small, entry-level iPad, seems to me. Get the kids into the Apple ecosystem early, get their fingers and eyeballs calibrated correctly.


     


    Yes.  $249 is viable for this.  $199 would be better.

  • Reply 162 of 232
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,953member
    zoetmb wrote: »
    Hmm...I almost hope Apple is subject to anti-trust, not because it's become so large or dominates its markets, but because the actions that force you into the Apple eco-system are sometimes anti-competitive.    But if they have to make some compromises (like not pulling the CD/DVD drive out of every model) or making their computers with user replaceable parts like batteries, memory and drives, so that you can add a third-party's replacement parts like you used to be able to do, or full sync support for third-party applications, I think that would benefit us all.

    I don't see how it's anti-trust. Nobody has to buy an Apple product. In every market Apple is in, there are viable alternatives. Heck, Apple is in a minority of the computer market.
  • Reply 163 of 232

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post



    Does anyone have an 16 GB iPad?



    If so, please go to Settings--->General--->About--->Capacity... and post the number!



    This way we can get an idea about how much flash storage iOS 6 uses on a 16 GB iPad... and extrapolate that to an 8 GB iPad.



    My grandsons' 16 GB iP5 and iP4 show 13.5 and 13.6 GB -- or iOS 6 takes 2.5 and 2.4 GB out of 16 GB.




    That's not quite accurate. Apple counts the capacity of NAND like HDD makers capacity, in BASE10, so your iDevice will have just over 16,000,000,000 bytes or just over 14.90 GB using BASE2.



    Now, that should definitely be taken into account when you consider how much usable space you have a specific device capacity but it does not translate evenly when going to different capacity sizes. For instance, my 64GB iPad only shows a 57.2GB capacity but at 64 billion bytes I'm only starting with just over 59.60 GB with BASE2, even before formatting the OS install. The OS isn't 5 GB larger than 8GB of NAND which is only 7.45 GB using BASE2.


     


     


    Apple says the capacity of the 16 GB iPhone is 16 GB (regardless of base 10 or base 2)


     


    Apple, using the same base, says the capacity of the 16 GB after iOS install is 13.5 GB for the iP5.


     


    That tells me that on a 16 GB iP5 the iOS uses 2.5 GB (by Apple's figures)


     


    IOW, that tells me that 15.625%  of the iP5 capacity is being used by iOS and 87.375% is available to the user,


     


    I wonder what the figures for the 16 GB iPad are -- and if we can extrapolate for  an 8 GB iPad mini... that's all...


     


     


    Aside:  I hate to be pissy about this... but first you give me a lesson in SSD vs flash... then number base arithmetic???


     


    My first experience with non-base 10 number systems was a book my Dad had me read in 1949...   One chapter went something like this:  


     


    "I was a 43 year-old young man who married a 100-year old woman... She was senior to me by only 2 years, so we were quite compatible."


     


     


    My first introduction to computer number systems was in 1956... it included binary, bi-quinary, octal... and later, around 1960, hexidecimal and BCD (Binary Coded Decimal)... then there were "Wordmarks", "TapeMarks", "GroupMarks" and GroupMark-WordMarks"

  • Reply 164 of 232
    "Apple's smaller iPad forecast to become 'competition's worst nightmare'"

    I can't be the only one who read this that Apple was forecasting smaller sales of iPads, and then wondered why that was becoming a nightmare to competitors.
  • Reply 165 of 232

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post



    Does anyone have a 16 GB iPad?



    If so, please go to Settings--->General--->About--->Capacity... and post the number!



    This way we can get an idea about how much flash storage iOS 6 uses on a 16 GB iPad... and extrapolate that to an 8 GB iPad.



    My grandsons' 16 GB iP5 and 16 GB iP4 show 13.5 and 13.6 GB -- or iOS 6 takes 2.5 and 2.4 GB out of 16 GB.




    16 GB iPad I: 13.8 capacity


     


    Thank you!   So, iOS (whatever version you have installed) uses 2.2 GB  or  13.75% and 86.25% is available to the user.


     


    I should have asked if that 16 GB iPad has cell, and which type....   I assume that cell, likely, has an impact on the installed size of iOS.


     


     


    Now, if the user had ~6 GB available on an 8 GB iPad Mini -- that might be acceptable for a WIFI-only entry system... and a 16 GB version would be a reasonable system.

  • Reply 166 of 232


    Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post

    …because the actions that force you into the Apple eco-system are sometimes anti-competitive.


     


    And what actions are these, specifically? Had a gun held to your head as you're told to buy an Apple product, recently?





    Originally Posted by nht View Post

    Tim has stated they don't want to leave a price umbrella for competitors.


     


    This will ignore lower prices when considering all devices that offer less quality. There will of course be a "price umbrella", explained away as "Nothing with the same level of UX can match our prices," which will be correct.

  • Reply 167 of 232
    tjwaltjwal Posts: 404member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post





    This is THE main point of doing a small, entry-level iPad, seems to me. Get the kids into the Apple ecosystem early, get their fingers and eyeballs calibrated correctly.


    That is a good idea as long as its a good product.  Kids can be pretty heavy users and IMHO 8 gb is going to be underwhelming.  That is going to drive them away from Apple products. 

  • Reply 168 of 232
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member

    Apple says the capacity of the 16 GB iPhone is 16 GB (regardless of base 10 or base 2)

    Apple, using the same base, says the capacity of the 16 GB after iOS install is 13.5 GB for the iP5.

    That tells me that on a 16 GB iP5 the iOS uses 2.5 GB (by Apple's figures)

    IOW, that tells me that 15.625%  of the iP5 capacity is being used by iOS and 87.375% is available to the user,

    I wonder what the figures for the 16 GB iPad are -- and if we can extrapolate for  an 8 GB iPad mini... that's all...


    Aside:  I hate to be pissy about this... but first you give me a lesson in SSD vs flash... then number base arithmetic???

    My first experience with non-base 10 number systems was a book my Dad had me read in 1949...   One chapter went something like this:  

    "I was a 43 year-old young man who married a 100-year old woman... She was senior to me by only 2 years, so we were quite compatible."


    My first introduction to computer number systems was in 1956... it included binary, bi-quinary, octal... and later, around 1960, hexidecimal and BCD (Binary Coded Decimal)... then there were "Wordmarks", "TapeMarks", "GroupMarks" and GroupMark-WordMarks"

    1) I didn't give you a lesson, I explained why I think SSDs won't be coming to the upcoming iPad "mini".

    2) The use of "GB" makes the difference if you aren't differentiating between BASE2 and BASE10 in your calculations. The only constant is that each will have at least that number of bytes in billion because that is what makes the claim accurate. It also means you can't say the OS uses the difference from that marketing quantity to the quantity shown in the system.

    3) Settings in iOS are not showing what the OS uses, it only shows you the capacity and what's available. This is why the capacity will always be increasingly lower than the marketing capacity as you increase the storage size. This needs to be accounted for and I haven't seen you take that into consideration.
  • Reply 169 of 232

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mstone View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    The charging method can bean an external device...  As to the removable battery -- get the price under $100 and their hearts and minds will follow...  funny, how we humans can adapt if it is in our interest to do so.



    Even if the tablet was $100 it would not be as well designed for the intended purpose as the one they have now for OLTPC



     


    You are probably correct... but, is the design the big issue...  there's this:


     


     


    Summary of laptop orders


    Orders below have been noted in the press. As of 2012, OLPC claims over 2.5 million laptops have been shipped.[49]













































































































    Year

    Confirmed number (approximate)

    Date confirmed

    Purchaser

    2007

    100,000

    October 2007

    Uruguay[50][51]

    15,000

    November 14, 2007

    Birmingham, Alabama, United States[52]

    260,000

    December 1, 2007

    Peru[53]

    50,000

    December 1, 2007

    Mexico (Mexican businessman Carlos Slim)[54]

    167,000

    January 5, 2008

    G1G1 2007 program[53]

    2008

    +200,000

    June 2008

    Uruguay[55]

    +30,000

    October 2008

    Peru[56]

    10,000

    November 10, 2008

    Ghana[57]

    12,500

    January 9, 2009

    G1G1 2008 program[46]

    2009

    5,000

    April 24, 2009

    Sierra Leone

    120,000

    May 14, 2009

    Rwanda[58]

    +160,000

    October 13, 2009

    Uruguay (total: 362,000 children, 18000 teachers)

    2010

    +260,000

    March 17, 2010

    Peru[59]

    +60,000

    April 13, 2010

    Argentina[60]

    +320,000

    December 26, 2010

    Peru[61]

    2011

    9,000

    May 27, 2011

    Paraguay[citation needed]

    +12,000

    Nov, 2011

    Colombia

    Total

    1.84 million

     

     

     


     


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Laptop_per_Child


     


     


     


    As of 2012, OLPC claims over 2.5 million laptops have been shipped


     


    That's just a week or so of  Apple's volume!

  • Reply 170 of 232
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Thank you!   So, iOS (whatever version you have installed) uses 2.2 GB  or  13.75% and 86.25% is available to the user.

    I should have asked if that 16 GB iPad has cell, and which type....   I assume that cell, likely, has an impact on the installed size of iOS.


    Now, if the user had ~6 GB available on an 8 GB iPad Mini -- that might be acceptable for a WIFI-only entry system... and a 16 GB version would be a reasonable system.

    Again, you're confusing measurements. You're talking a BASE10 (slightly over 16 billion bytes) marketing value and subtracting it from a BASE2 value in the OS. You need to get the two byte values or convert to the same base for it to be anywhere close to accurate.

    You have Xcode installed right? Plug them in and compare the Capacity and you'll get a much more accurate and consistent value for the size of an iOS installation.


    PS: To be clear, I don't think the iPad "mini" will come lower than 16GB for the general reason you mention.
  • Reply 171 of 232

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by nht View Post


    Tim has stated they don't want to leave a price umbrella for competitors.  


     


    A $250 entry price point avoids the race to the bottom while leaving pretty much no umbrella for anyone not subsidizing their tablets from other sources.  Given the volumes Apple should be able to build a tablet cheaper than anyone else and it strikes me that if Google can break even on the 8GB Nexus 7 at $199 then Apple can make a profit at $250.


     


    While that price point cannibalizes the $299 iPod Touch that's okay.  Better Apple do it than Amazon or Google.


     


    8GB is viable if they can add streaming from iCloud for purchased content (movies and textbooks).  It's tight for apps.


     


    One alternative is that the 4G capable models start at $199 with 2 year contract for AT&T and Verizon $20 shared data plans and the non-4G ones start higher priced around the $299 mark for 16GB.



     


    Those are good points... but there may be a way for a "group", say, a family or a school to use apps (as well as other content) on the 8 GB with minor inconvenience.  If the "group" had a Mac or PC, or something like TimeMachine, that contained the cloud content and apps locally (within the local WiFi network).  The apps (or other content) need not reside, permanently, on the 8 GB iPad Mini -- rather they could be cross-loaded over WiFi, on demand with a delay of only a few seconds. 


     


    Apple has said that the new (re-imagined) iTunes will be available in October... So will the iPad Mini???   Maybe a 2012 iTunes will support the above and make the 8 GB iPad Mini a practical solution.


     


    Then there's the whole lack of info of when/how Apple will deliver support for the latest 802.11ac WiFi speeds.


     


    IOW, "a little more"  could be a lot more.


     


     


    Edit: As to your last point... I believe that Apple doesn't want the carriers to subsidize the iPad, and are trying to get away from that model in the future.  I, for one do not think an iPad should go through the hassle of ordering,  buying,  activating,  upgrading,  contract termination... and all the other crap we put up with for phones.

  • Reply 172 of 232
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mstone View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    The charging method can bean an external device...  As to the removable battery -- get the price under $100 and their hearts and minds will follow...  funny, how we humans can adapt if it is in our interest to do so.



    Even if the tablet was $100 it would not be as well designed for the intended purpose as the one they have now for OLTPC



     


    You are probably correct... but, is the design the big issue...  



    One of the most important design features is that it have almost zero black market value. That is why they designed it as a big rugged bright green children's toy-like device. Its unique appearance and stripped down Linux OS make it useless for anything other than its intended purpose.

  • Reply 173 of 232

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post



    Hmm...I almost hope Apple is subject to anti-trust, not because it's become so large or dominates its markets, but because the actions that force you into the Apple eco-system are sometimes anti-competitive.    But if they have to make some compromises (like not pulling the CD/DVD drive out of every model) or making their computers with user replaceable parts like batteries, memory and drives, so that you can add a third-party's replacement parts like you used to be able to do, or full sync support for third-party applications, I think that would benefit us all.




    I guess you're the kind of guy who likes to take the weekend to put new headers on his Toyota. Good luck adapting to modern life.


     


    Nah... it's rocker panels :)

  • Reply 174 of 232

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post





    Apple says the capacity of the 16 GB iPhone is 16 GB (regardless of base 10 or base 2)



    Apple, using the same base, says the capacity of the 16 GB after iOS install is 13.5 GB for the iP5.



    That tells me that on a 16 GB iP5 the iOS uses 2.5 GB (by Apple's figures)



    IOW, that tells me that 15.625%  of the iP5 capacity is being used by iOS and 87.375% is available to the user,



    I wonder what the figures for the 16 GB iPad are -- and if we can extrapolate for  an 8 GB iPad mini... that's all...





    Aside:  I hate to be pissy about this... but first you give me a lesson in SSD vs flash... then number base arithmetic???



    My first experience with non-base 10 number systems was a book my Dad had me read in 1949...   One chapter went something like this:  



    "I was a 43 year-old young man who married a 100-year old woman... She was senior to me by only 2 years, so we were quite compatible."





    My first introduction to computer number systems was in 1956... it included binary, bi-quinary, octal... and later, around 1960, hexidecimal and BCD (Binary Coded Decimal)... then there were "Wordmarks", "TapeMarks", "GroupMarks" and GroupMark-WordMarks"




    1) I didn't give you a lesson, I explained why I think SSDs won't be coming to the upcoming iPad "mini".



    2) The use of "GB" makes the difference if you aren't differentiating between BASE2 and BASE10 in your calculations. The only constant is that each will have at least that number of bytes in billion because that is what makes the claim accurate. It also means you can't say the OS uses the difference from that marketing quantity to the quantity shown in the system.



    3) Settings in iOS are not showing what the OS uses, it only shows you the capacity and what's available. This is why the capacity will always be increasingly lower than the marketing capacity as you increase the storage size. This needs to be accounted for and I haven't seen you take that into consideration.


     


    1)  I misspoke...  but you knew what I was talking about and chose to be pedantic!


     


    2) If Apple states everything in base 2, base 10, base 12... whatever... who cares it's all relative?  E.g, the device is 8 GB, the OS is 2  GB,  that leaves 6 GB for content and apps...


     


    An average:



    • movie .7 GB


    • book .1 GB


    • app .3 GB


     


    See how that works!


     


    3) I am trying to take into consideration storage size, display size and resolution (screen buffers),  hardware (camera buffers, etc.), services available (location, cell, notification, etc.) that require code and buffers...  


     


    All this based on what we have available today... to see if we can extrapolate if an 8 GB iPad Mini is viable... that's all!


     


    From what I can tell, an 8 GB iPad Mini could have ~6 GB user storage... a couple of movies, 10 or so books, 10 apps...  Looks doable -- especially if you can quickly change the content.

  • Reply 175 of 232

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Harbinger View Post


    This will be fascinating to watch. The Nexus 7 is selling reasonably well and aggressively priced. The Google ecosystem is not bad. Arguably, there are not nearly as many tablet-specific apps for Android.


     


    But Apple doesn't have a history of saying "here's a 7.85" tablet" and simply letting the customer choose. Their track record suggests that the iPad Air will come with a compelling appeal. Will this be the thinness alone? Can't wait to find out.

     



    1million (max) sales and "it is selling well"? it is well documented (google earnings, look it up at cnet).

  • Reply 176 of 232
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    1)  I misspoke...  but you knew what I was talking about and chose to be pedantic!

    2) If Apple states everything in base 2, base 10, base 12... whatever... who cares it's all relative?  E.g, the device is 8 GB, the OS is 2  GB,  that leaves 6 GB for content and apps...

    An average:
    • movie .7 GB
    • book .1 GB
    • app .3 GB

    See how that works!

    3) I am trying to take into consideration storage size, display size and resolution (screen buffers),  hardware (camera buffers, etc.), services available (location, cell, notification, etc.) that require code and buffers...  

    All this based on what we have available today... to see if we can extrapolate if an 8 GB iPad Mini is viable... that's all!

    From what I can tell, an 8 GB iPad Mini could have ~6 GB user storage... a couple of movies, 10 or so books, 10 apps...  Looks doable -- especially if you can quickly change the content.

    1) If I knew what you were getting at I wouldn't have made the post that I made.

    2) If you care about accurate math then it matters. You can't subtract 4 miles from 16 kilometers and say you have 12 kilometers left. You need to make sure the values are corresponding properly. I've showed you twice how to use system values over marketing values so you're at least using the same base value.

    3) All that needs to be considered is the iPad 2 running iOS 6 as it'll be very close to the size of the images, apps, and features of this rumoured device. You can add or subtract SW depending on what you think will or will not be included (e.g.: no camera means no camera app or firmware, or some killer new feature that is only on this new iPad) but the overall size should be within couple percent of that device.
  • Reply 177 of 232
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,953member
    1)  I misspoke...  but you knew what I was talking about and chose to be pedantic!

    2) If Apple states everything in base 2, base 10, base 12... whatever... who cares it's all relative?  E.g, the device is 8 GB, the OS is 2  GB,  that leaves 6 GB for content and apps...

    An average:
    • movie .7 GB
    • book .1 GB
    • app .3 GB

    See how that works!

    3) I am trying to take into consideration storage size, display size and resolution (screen buffers),  hardware (camera buffers, etc.), services available (location, cell, notification, etc.) that require code and buffers...  

    All this based on what we have available today... to see if we can extrapolate if an 8 GB iPad Mini is viable... that's all!

    From what I can tell, an 8 GB iPad Mini could have ~6 GB user storage... a couple of movies, 10 or so books, 10 apps...  Looks doable -- especially if you can quickly change the content.

    I think the real space figures are a lot more favorable than that. I have a handful of large apps like that, but my average app is in the 20 MB range, I even have a few apps that are under 1 MB. Unless you have copious photos in the book, books are often about 1MB or so. Your figures for movies is a decent average.
  • Reply 178 of 232

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mstone View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mstone View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    The charging method can bean an external device...  As to the removable battery -- get the price under $100 and their hearts and minds will follow...  funny, how we humans can adapt if it is in our interest to do so.



    Even if the tablet was $100 it would not be as well designed for the intended purpose as the one they have now for OLTPC



     


    You are probably correct... but, is the design the big issue...  



    One of the most important design features is that it have almost zero black market value. That is why they designed it as a big rugged bright green children's toy-like device. Its unique appearance and stripped down Linux OS make it useless for anything other than its intended purpose.



     


    I think that that is true... no black market value... no appeal to anybody!  


     


    BTW, with iOS 6 you can render a (misappropriated, lost or stolen) iDevice unusable... so it has little value in the black market -- that's how I justified buying iPhones for the grand kids.


     


     


    And by using a non-standard OS, non-standard UI and non-standard apps it really prepares the fortunate user to improve his lot in life and society.


     


    Honestly, though I think iOS is better -- I believe that OTPC would be better with Android or Windows than with what they have now.


     


     


    FWIW,  I Installed the [ported] iPad version of the software... no big deal... you make a car move around instead of a turtle.

  • Reply 179 of 232

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post



    1)  I misspoke...  but you knew what I was talking about and chose to be pedantic!



    2) If Apple states everything in base 2, base 10, base 12... whatever... who cares it's all relative?  E.g, the device is 8 GB, the OS is 2  GB,  that leaves 6 GB for content and apps...



    An average:


    • movie .7 GB


    • book .1 GB


    • app .3 GB



    See how that works!



    3) I am trying to take into consideration storage size, display size and resolution (screen buffers),  hardware (camera buffers, etc.), services available (location, cell, notification, etc.) that require code and buffers...  



    All this based on what we have available today... to see if we can extrapolate if an 8 GB iPad Mini is viable... that's all!



    From what I can tell, an 8 GB iPad Mini could have ~6 GB user storage... a couple of movies, 10 or so books, 10 apps...  Looks doable -- especially if you can quickly change the content.




    I think the real space figures are a lot more favorable than that. I have a handful of large apps like that, but my average app is in the 20 MB range, I even have a few apps that are under 1 MB. Unless you have copious photos in the book, books are often about 1MB or so. Your figures for movies is a decent average.


     


    Exactly!  The grandkids have several games over 1 GB... our largest app is 1.71 GB... the smallest is 56 KB.


     


    Now, if you can stream the music and movies, load big books by chapters currently needed, and cross-load apps when needed... it looks like an 8 GB iPad Mini is doable... and a $199-$249 price is attractive.


     


    Thanks for the input!  How did you get book sizes?

  • Reply 180 of 232
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Thanks for the input!  How did you get book sizes?

    iTunes or Finder. Easier to just add the Sizes category in iTunes and then organize by size. If you have a lot of audiobooks that are broken up then you can create a smart playlist to exclude them.
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