The Brazilian market is totally corrupted by high import tariffs. Nobody can afford an iPhone 5. So they accept crappy old Symbian instead.
Foxconn has a factory in Brazil now, how did that not end these high import tariffs? They were at least making the iPhone 4 there and the price never seemed to drop. Anyone know why not? Has anyone heard about if they're making 5's there now?
Hmm...maybe I was thinking of a different quarter. But I do remember after the blowout numbers the analysts on CNBC saying its not all about AT&T and Verizon anymore.
... In a breakdown of carrier share, the trend toward iOS is most apparent with Verizon where 49 percent of iPhone sales were derived from users of other smartphone brands, with 30 percent being former Android owners. Overall, during the 12 weeks leading up to Dec. 23, the percent of iOS users on Verizon's network hit 58.8 percent, a huge jump from the 47.4 percent seen in the year ago quarter. Android, which led iOS last year with 47.5 percent, fell to 38.5 percent for the closing weeks of 2012.
AT&T saw less erosion to its Android market with only 6 percent of iPhone purchasers switching from Google's OS. Overall, iOS share was up to 74.7 percent compared to last year's 66.7 percent, while Android dropped to 19.6 percent from 22.5 percent year-to-year. ...
This is the important part of these numbers. Verizon users had no choice for a few years, and a bunch got suckered into Android over the past couple, but now that their contracts are up, they are switching to iPhone. Fewer AT&T customers got suckered into buying Android phones, but they are switching too. Consumers, as opposed to Apple hating geeks, just don't love Android. And, with no significant financial investment in the Android ecosystem, there's nothing holding them back.
Obviously Android did lose ground, but the article implies that Apple's gain was more or less Android's loss when in fact Apple's gain was more or less RIM's loss.
Both of the bolded statements are wrong. Within sampling error, 53% and 51% are indistinguishable and the 0.5% "drop" in Android is simply noise. I didn't look it up, but the margin of error is typically a few percent in surveys like this.
However, sampling error is small compared to the real error in surveys like these. The biggest problem is finding a representative sample. Unless they're VERY careful to choose a sample that's representative of the population as a whole and equally covers all sub-groups, the results may have little or no meaning at all. You also have to be careful to understand the group being represented (such as being careful not to compare US results to global results).
Then, of course, keep in mind that different surveys conducted by different groups will often give different results (due to the different methodologies and differences in selecting the sample group).
In the end, small differences (a few percent) are probably meaningless and unless you have hard numbers (which only Apple provides), any results should be taken with a grain of salt. Finally, to get a clearer picture, one should gather information from a wide variety of sources using different methodologies and see if there is a general trend. If several different groups using entirely different methodologies reach the same conclusions, there's a greater chance that it's real than if a single group posts a result like this.
These figures in the article seem to be totally crap.
December quarter 2011: iPhone activation share at att= 81%
December quarter 2011: iPhone activation share at verizon = 55%
Bear in mind that sales and activations are not the same thing.
Activations include hand-me-down, used phones as well. Activations do not include phones that were sold, but given as gifts that have not been activated yet.
The difference between activation numbers and sales numbers has historically been anywhere from 10 - 20%.
We're discussing phones, Skil, not tablets. And the sales numbers for the Kindle Fire were pretty strong for a tablet no one wants.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Nope. Read it again. The article specifically mentions "smartphone OS" every time it needs said. That means ALL iOS, not just phones.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
If they said only iOS I'd agree with you but the article's specific use of smartphone OS and the stats from MNOs makes it sound very smartphone focused. I'd wager they grabbed data based on HW sales and then figured out which OS goes with which HW product. Easy in Apple's case.
The fact that the report doesn't make a basic fact like this straightforward and obvious tells that it -- or perhaps AI's reporting of it -- isn't worth the paper it's written on.
A little more digging into the numbers raises an interesting observation.
If we look at only AT&T and Verizon (where OS share was broken down), iOS has 66.9% vs 28.9% for Android. In order for the numbers to work out for the market as a whole, iOS must have 21% of all other carriers and Android 73% (note that the other OSs fare better on the smaller carriers than at AT&T or Verizon).
For some of the smaller carriers (i.e., anyone but AT&T and Verizon), it is difficult to use an iPhone and it is not an easy choice. For example, at Straight Talk, the iPhone 5 was not even supported during the period of this survey. To use an iPhone 5, you needed to buy a SIM (which must be done by mail order since they don't sell them in Straight Talk outlets), cut it down with a razor blade or SIM cutter, and then, if you didn't buy an unlocked phone, jailbreak your phone. Clearly, fewer users are going to do that than the percentage who will just walk into an AT&T store and buy an iPhone that they can immediately start using.
So where given an easy choice (you can walk out today with a working iPhone or a working Android phone) at AT&T or Verizon, iOS has more than twice the share of Android. Android gains ground (about 3.5:1) at stores and carriers that do not support iOS directly.
looks like Android is loosing ground to iPhone both at AT&T and Verizon (more so here). I bet Sprint looks similar. So why is Android not loosing total market share? I would venture that difference is made up at the "Other" carriers. Im gonna speculate, which is worth nothing, that more experienced smart phone customers switch from Android to iPhone when it comes time to upgrade. I have no way to prove this; but AT&T, Verizon and likely Sprint numbers seem to support my theory.
If Apple can sustain this market share of sales, the actual market share of 'users' will drift over time to match that- so eventually Apple would erode Androids 60ish percent to Apples 40ish percent share in the US (less in the rest of the world). You have to take the 'skewtistics' with a grain of salt and look at them from a distance. I think this site had data that showed of those Apple phone buyers, only slightly over 20% were new buyers. Apple users love their phones and rush out to buy new ones. That is great for Apple sales, but generally doesn't result in more real market share (a small percent will be given as hand me downs or cheap resales ). The other factor is bias. Remember the prior quarter when Android sales were I think over 70% share. Android fans jumped up and down saying zomg Android dominance! Reality: Apple users were waiting for the iPhone 5. Duh. The same thing applies for the iPhone 5. All those people that waited bought their iPhones this quarter- so of course Apple gets a big spike with every major release and usually a smaller but visible spike on minor upgrades. So the key is if Apple can sustain this market share now that the rush for the 5 is over. I think they may have a chance of holding on somewhat but will drop below 50% sales share this quarter. That will likely be slightly inflated by the fact that everyone knows the Galaxy IV is around the corner. Same thing as the iPhone 5 effect but to a lesser extent. Samsungs flagship Galaxy III sales are likely to dip at some point on anticipation.
Keep in mind the numbers reflect sales market share- not true sales. The smartphone market is just getting out of the 'booming' territory and moving into the 'growing nicely' range. Two years ago, growth: 86%! One year ago: 45%! That's crazy. In two years the market size more than grew to more than two and a half times its starting size. That's why both fan sites of Android and Apple continually post the most meaningless thing that sounds great as a headline: "Record sales for Android!!!" "Record sales for Apple!!!!" In a market growing 45% per year if you don't continually outsell your last model and achieve new records you are doing something very very wrong. This year I think expectation is around 30+% That's the real trend that makes me worry about Apple's share price. I'm not worried about Apple itself- they build great products and have a ton of cash- they are going to continue to do well- I do believe once the 'land rush' growth is over for smartphones we'll enter the competition phase. At that point its not sales that will hurt Apple but margins. That is the real elephant in the room for Apples share price despite decent sales.
It is hard for large companies to 'double' or 'quadruple' their share value. That is exactly what they did to become a large company- but there's a point where its not sustainable. At its peak analysts drove Apple's peak value to $660B. Think about that. That is the GDP of Switzerland. Is that really a rational valuation of Apple? And to the fans expecting it to double or quadraple yet again.... Really? You think Apple is doing so well is should be valued at the GDP of Russia?? Apple hasn't been able to keep up with analysts overzealous valuation and it has dropped to prices that more reflect its actual performance. If they let their margins drop that is going to be like a bug zapper for their share price (again, Apple itself will continue to have great products and do more than just survive- but I see limited chances of the stock doubling from its peak value, and much more opportunity for it to fall. I think the new this quarter will be good and it may take a temporary jump upward).
Thats all as it stands now. Apple has a habit of coming out with something great every few years. Analysts expect that and inflate Apples valuation accordingly. The more bullish analysts build that in to their estimates and believe Apple is due to step up and hit another home run. Apples shares could really use that now. Whether its their iTV or watch or something completely surprising its always fun to watch Apple come up with something new and great.
Bear in mind that sales and activations are not the same thing.
Activations include hand-me-down, used phones as well. Activations do not include phones that were sold, but given as gifts that have not been activated yet.
The difference between activation numbers and sales numbers has historically been anywhere from 10 - 20%.
Bear in mind that attempting to deny reality doesn't change it.
At its peak analysts drove Apple's peak value to $660B. Think about that. That is the GDP of Switzerland. Is that really a rational valuation of Apple?
Um... yes. Lots of people have "thought about that," and for many, many rational reasons based on facts and fundamentals, it is, indeed, a rational valuation of Apple.
If anything, many rational investors, using the same facts and fundamentals, would argue that $660B it is an undervaluation of Apple.
Add: Btw, despite the fact that people do it all the time, it makes no conceptual sense to compare a 'flow' variable (like GDP) with a 'level' variable (like stock prices or asset value). This is like arguing "Bill Gates is worth $50B, and that just is too much, because it's many multiples of Tim Cook's annual earnings of $400M...."
It's pretty obvious that by implying that the activation numbers shouldn't be relied on that he's attempting to deny the numbers in these reports. But, you knew that.
It's pretty obvious that by implying that the activation numbers shouldn't be relied on that he's attempting to deny the numbers in these reports. But, you knew that.
OK. I didn't read it that way. But perhaps it's just a matter of interpretation.
It's pretty obvious that by implying that the activation numbers shouldn't be relied on that he's attempting to deny the numbers in these reports. But, you knew that.
Or just questions the number, which is perfectly alright.
"Never trust a statistics you didn't forge yourself."
Verizon reported results this morning. Anyone see iPhone sales figures? I couldn't find anything on their website.
So Verizon said on their conference call that they activated 6.2 million iPhones out of a total 9.8 million smartphones. That's 63%. Last year holiday quarter Apple's share of activations on Verizon was 55%. If I remember correctly they said 65% were LTE devices but I can't remember if that was an iPhone figure or a total smartphone figure. Anyone know what analyst expectations were for Verizon iPhone sales?
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Entropys
The Brazilian market is totally corrupted by high import tariffs. Nobody can afford an iPhone 5. So they accept crappy old Symbian instead.
Foxconn has a factory in Brazil now, how did that not end these high import tariffs? They were at least making the iPhone 4 there and the price never seemed to drop. Anyone know why not? Has anyone heard about if they're making 5's there now?
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance
Looks like iOS gained marketshare at the expense of RIM, not Android. Apple gained 6.3%. Android lost 0.6%. RIM lost 5%.
Surely no former RIM customer bought an Android phone the last year
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider
... In a breakdown of carrier share, the trend toward iOS is most apparent with Verizon where 49 percent of iPhone sales were derived from users of other smartphone brands, with 30 percent being former Android owners. Overall, during the 12 weeks leading up to Dec. 23, the percent of iOS users on Verizon's network hit 58.8 percent, a huge jump from the 47.4 percent seen in the year ago quarter. Android, which led iOS last year with 47.5 percent, fell to 38.5 percent for the closing weeks of 2012.
AT&T saw less erosion to its Android market with only 6 percent of iPhone purchasers switching from Google's OS. Overall, iOS share was up to 74.7 percent compared to last year's 66.7 percent, while Android dropped to 19.6 percent from 22.5 percent year-to-year. ...
This is the important part of these numbers. Verizon users had no choice for a few years, and a bunch got suckered into Android over the past couple, but now that their contracts are up, they are switching to iPhone. Fewer AT&T customers got suckered into buying Android phones, but they are switching too. Consumers, as opposed to Apple hating geeks, just don't love Android. And, with no significant financial investment in the Android ecosystem, there's nothing holding them back.
This is what "winning!" looks like.
Both of the bolded statements are wrong. Within sampling error, 53% and 51% are indistinguishable and the 0.5% "drop" in Android is simply noise. I didn't look it up, but the margin of error is typically a few percent in surveys like this.
However, sampling error is small compared to the real error in surveys like these. The biggest problem is finding a representative sample. Unless they're VERY careful to choose a sample that's representative of the population as a whole and equally covers all sub-groups, the results may have little or no meaning at all. You also have to be careful to understand the group being represented (such as being careful not to compare US results to global results).
Then, of course, keep in mind that different surveys conducted by different groups will often give different results (due to the different methodologies and differences in selecting the sample group).
In the end, small differences (a few percent) are probably meaningless and unless you have hard numbers (which only Apple provides), any results should be taken with a grain of salt. Finally, to get a clearer picture, one should gather information from a wide variety of sources using different methodologies and see if there is a general trend. If several different groups using entirely different methodologies reach the same conclusions, there's a greater chance that it's real than if a single group posts a result like this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by arch
These figures in the article seem to be totally crap.
December quarter 2011: iPhone activation share at att= 81%
December quarter 2011: iPhone activation share at verizon = 55%
Bear in mind that sales and activations are not the same thing.
Activations include hand-me-down, used phones as well. Activations do not include phones that were sold, but given as gifts that have not been activated yet.
The difference between activation numbers and sales numbers has historically been anywhere from 10 - 20%.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907
We're discussing phones, Skil, not tablets. And the sales numbers for the Kindle Fire were pretty strong for a tablet no one wants.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Nope. Read it again. The article specifically mentions "smartphone OS" every time it needs said. That means ALL iOS, not just phones.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
If they said only iOS I'd agree with you but the article's specific use of smartphone OS and the stats from MNOs makes it sound very smartphone focused. I'd wager they grabbed data based on HW sales and then figured out which OS goes with which HW product. Easy in Apple's case.
The fact that the report doesn't make a basic fact like this straightforward and obvious tells that it -- or perhaps AI's reporting of it -- isn't worth the paper it's written on.
If we look at only AT&T and Verizon (where OS share was broken down), iOS has 66.9% vs 28.9% for Android. In order for the numbers to work out for the market as a whole, iOS must have 21% of all other carriers and Android 73% (note that the other OSs fare better on the smaller carriers than at AT&T or Verizon).
For some of the smaller carriers (i.e., anyone but AT&T and Verizon), it is difficult to use an iPhone and it is not an easy choice. For example, at Straight Talk, the iPhone 5 was not even supported during the period of this survey. To use an iPhone 5, you needed to buy a SIM (which must be done by mail order since they don't sell them in Straight Talk outlets), cut it down with a razor blade or SIM cutter, and then, if you didn't buy an unlocked phone, jailbreak your phone. Clearly, fewer users are going to do that than the percentage who will just walk into an AT&T store and buy an iPhone that they can immediately start using.
So where given an easy choice (you can walk out today with a working iPhone or a working Android phone) at AT&T or Verizon, iOS has more than twice the share of Android. Android gains ground (about 3.5:1) at stores and carriers that do not support iOS directly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by smalM
Surely no former RIM customer bought an Android phone the last year
I realize you're trying to be sarcastic, but what your post shows is that you can't interpret basic arithmetic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by snova
looks like Android is loosing ground to iPhone both at AT&T and Verizon (more so here). I bet Sprint looks similar. So why is Android not loosing total market share? I would venture that difference is made up at the "Other" carriers. Im gonna speculate, which is worth nothing, that more experienced smart phone customers switch from Android to iPhone when it comes time to upgrade. I have no way to prove this; but AT&T, Verizon and likely Sprint numbers seem to support my theory.
If Apple can sustain this market share of sales, the actual market share of 'users' will drift over time to match that- so eventually Apple would erode Androids 60ish percent to Apples 40ish percent share in the US (less in the rest of the world). You have to take the 'skewtistics' with a grain of salt and look at them from a distance. I think this site had data that showed of those Apple phone buyers, only slightly over 20% were new buyers. Apple users love their phones and rush out to buy new ones. That is great for Apple sales, but generally doesn't result in more real market share (a small percent will be given as hand me downs or cheap resales ). The other factor is bias. Remember the prior quarter when Android sales were I think over 70% share. Android fans jumped up and down saying zomg Android dominance! Reality: Apple users were waiting for the iPhone 5. Duh. The same thing applies for the iPhone 5. All those people that waited bought their iPhones this quarter- so of course Apple gets a big spike with every major release and usually a smaller but visible spike on minor upgrades. So the key is if Apple can sustain this market share now that the rush for the 5 is over. I think they may have a chance of holding on somewhat but will drop below 50% sales share this quarter. That will likely be slightly inflated by the fact that everyone knows the Galaxy IV is around the corner. Same thing as the iPhone 5 effect but to a lesser extent. Samsungs flagship Galaxy III sales are likely to dip at some point on anticipation.
Keep in mind the numbers reflect sales market share- not true sales. The smartphone market is just getting out of the 'booming' territory and moving into the 'growing nicely' range. Two years ago, growth: 86%! One year ago: 45%! That's crazy. In two years the market size more than grew to more than two and a half times its starting size. That's why both fan sites of Android and Apple continually post the most meaningless thing that sounds great as a headline: "Record sales for Android!!!" "Record sales for Apple!!!!" In a market growing 45% per year if you don't continually outsell your last model and achieve new records you are doing something very very wrong. This year I think expectation is around 30+% That's the real trend that makes me worry about Apple's share price. I'm not worried about Apple itself- they build great products and have a ton of cash- they are going to continue to do well- I do believe once the 'land rush' growth is over for smartphones we'll enter the competition phase. At that point its not sales that will hurt Apple but margins. That is the real elephant in the room for Apples share price despite decent sales.
It is hard for large companies to 'double' or 'quadruple' their share value. That is exactly what they did to become a large company- but there's a point where its not sustainable. At its peak analysts drove Apple's peak value to $660B. Think about that. That is the GDP of Switzerland. Is that really a rational valuation of Apple? And to the fans expecting it to double or quadraple yet again.... Really? You think Apple is doing so well is should be valued at the GDP of Russia?? Apple hasn't been able to keep up with analysts overzealous valuation and it has dropped to prices that more reflect its actual performance. If they let their margins drop that is going to be like a bug zapper for their share price (again, Apple itself will continue to have great products and do more than just survive- but I see limited chances of the stock doubling from its peak value, and much more opportunity for it to fall. I think the new this quarter will be good and it may take a temporary jump upward).
Thats all as it stands now. Apple has a habit of coming out with something great every few years. Analysts expect that and inflate Apples valuation accordingly. The more bullish analysts build that in to their estimates and believe Apple is due to step up and hit another home run. Apples shares could really use that now. Whether its their iTV or watch or something completely surprising its always fun to watch Apple come up with something new and great.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling
Bear in mind that sales and activations are not the same thing.
Activations include hand-me-down, used phones as well. Activations do not include phones that were sold, but given as gifts that have not been activated yet.
The difference between activation numbers and sales numbers has historically been anywhere from 10 - 20%.
Bear in mind that attempting to deny reality doesn't change it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frood
At its peak analysts drove Apple's peak value to $660B. Think about that. That is the GDP of Switzerland. Is that really a rational valuation of Apple?
Um... yes. Lots of people have "thought about that," and for many, many rational reasons based on facts and fundamentals, it is, indeed, a rational valuation of Apple.
If anything, many rational investors, using the same facts and fundamentals, would argue that $660B it is an undervaluation of Apple.
Add: Btw, despite the fact that people do it all the time, it makes no conceptual sense to compare a 'flow' variable (like GDP) with a 'level' variable (like stock prices or asset value). This is like arguing "Bill Gates is worth $50B, and that just is too much, because it's many multiples of Tim Cook's annual earnings of $400M...."
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
Bear in mind that attempting to deny reality doesn't change it.
What reality is he denying?
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
What reality is he denying?
It's pretty obvious that by implying that the activation numbers shouldn't be relied on that he's attempting to deny the numbers in these reports. But, you knew that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
It's pretty obvious that by implying that the activation numbers shouldn't be relied on that he's attempting to deny the numbers in these reports.
If my purpose was to address the numbers in the title report, then I would've done so.
My post simply pointed out that, no matter what reports are used to make someone's case, they need to use the same math units.
Your posts show that you're not only paranoid and some kind of stalker, you also don't understand math concepts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
It's pretty obvious that by implying that the activation numbers shouldn't be relied on that he's attempting to deny the numbers in these reports. But, you knew that.
OK. I didn't read it that way. But perhaps it's just a matter of interpretation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
It's pretty obvious that by implying that the activation numbers shouldn't be relied on that he's attempting to deny the numbers in these reports. But, you knew that.
Or just questions the number, which is perfectly alright.
"Never trust a statistics you didn't forge yourself."
Quote:
Originally Posted by snova
I think you are on to something. Going to source of the article it says the data is for the 12 weeks ending Nov 25. NOT end of December.
"of the market for the 12 week period ending November 25th, 2012"
edit: ok.. I don't know where this dec 25th announcement is at that this data came from. I cant find it on the web site.
http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/news-articles/US-iOS-Maintains-Lead-Among-US-Smartphone-OS-Sales
You're welcome!