Maybe if you were paying attention you would know what I am thinking.
[the original comment, post # 16, tells you we are talking about share price (ie. analyst observations) and then post #23 clarifies it once again]
... but don't worry, Jragosta missed it as well... so did one other person.
Maybe the reason that we all "missed" your intent is this: Fact: Apple is on record as stating first weekend sales of the iPhone 5 (2012) topped five million.
In your #16 post you said: "7 million would be the number... considering that China was included in the launch this time. That would equal last year's launch of the 5. It would signal no growth over last year."?(italics mine)
In my reply (#125) I said: "Growth is growth. I can tell you for a fact that when my business went up by 40% ... I never once said ... "well yeah, but that's only because I have 40% more customers this year ... so it doesn't count".
I cannot make it any clearer than that. I realize that some posters (hint, hint) specialize in ambiguity, otherwise known as cover your ass posting in case you get called on it, my mistake was, I guess, in not recognizing that you fell into that demographic. btw ... you'll have last kick at this thing as I am "off to the races". So feel free ....
Maybe the reason that we all "missed" your intent is this: Fact: Apple is on record as stating first weekend sales of the iPhone 5 (2012) topped five million.
In your #16 post you said: "7 million would be the number... considering that China was included in the launch this time. That would equal last year's launch of the 5. It would signal no growth over last year."?(italics mine)
In my reply (#125) I said: "Growth is growth. I can tell you for a fact that when my business went up by 40% ... I never once said ... "well yeah, but that's only because I have 40% more customers this year ... so it doesn't count".
I cannot make it any clearer than that. I realize that some posters (hint, hint) specialize in ambiguity, otherwise known as cover your ass posting in case you get called on it, my mistake was, I guess, in not recognizing that you fell into that demographic. btw ... you'll have last kick at this thing as I am "off to the races". So feel free ....
Geez, man... don't blame me. I can't help it if your comprehension level is low.
___________________
Hmmmm... let's see.
1. Last year Apple sold 5 million 5s in the first three days at launch. China was not included in the initial launch.
2. Later, when introduced in China the 5 sold another 2 million at launch in the first 3 days.
3. That would equal 7 million sold total over the 3 initial days for both the initial launch and then the 3 day launch in China.
... so, let's say that Apple sold 7 million 5s phones at launch this time. A launch that includes China. Yes, at first glance it appears that there is a 40% increase in sales during the first three days. You'd be correct.
Now a dumb investor would say, "Holy crap! Apple just sold 40% more phones during the launch weekend!"
A smart investor would say, "That figure looks good at first glance but we have to remember that it includes China. I'm not going to jump up and down about a perceived 40% growth at Apple until I see the figures for the next three months because it looks like there is zero growth at launch when all considerations are weighed."
This reminds me of the time my Boss got a complaint from a tenant that said I was over-watering the grass at the apartment building. I happened to tell the tenant that the water goes on for an hour in the morning and an hour at night. I forgot to tell him that is the sum total of the 5 zones being watered... 12 minutes for each zone. Sadly, the tenant still didn't get it even after I explained it to him.
Blackbook did not work out the implications of (his saying that) the 5c would be dud. If Apple were to miss with the 5c, then all the negative press and market sentiment, etc., would go from the present noise level to an actual destructive force.
Not seeing that Apple is now doing structural plastic the way they did structural aluminum is a failure of perception. They are redefining the way phones are built—again. To miss that is to makes any opinion you have about the appeal of the 5c worthless, except as a psychological curiosity. Square but rounded shoulders, a flat back, machined holes, and a reinforcing antenna are not trivial details, they're architecture. It isn't a snap-on plastic shell with hardly any thought given to function, in other words. Ive's seriousness of purpose is transmitted to the susceptible person handling the phone more or less unconsciously. If you can't look, actually feel, past the color and the polymer and realize this, it is really just an indication that you're not perceptually susceptible.
The colors are a matter of opinion and taste. My comment about their not being my colors should have reflected that, so that two-dimensional thinkers would not seize on it.
Yes I know it must be tiresome to you who either side with blackbook or don't care, but I wouldn't be sticking out my neck with rosy predictions if the "cheap plastic" meme weren't spreading like a disease.
I went back to my local Apple store again today.
5S are all sold out, and 5Cs were selling out one by one.
Today there were crowds around the 5Cs and people of all ages purchasing them.
I decided to look at them again, and I will say they are nice. I still prefer the look and feel of my 3GS over the 5C, but when the 5C has a color matched dynamic wallpaper it looks really good. The wallpaper makes a huge visual difference and impact with the 5C, and I like the black glass fronts because it helps highlight the wallpapers used. As I've said not my cup of tea, but I'm slowly coming around to the 5C.
Anyway we have to see some sales numbers, but I'm more confident after what I saw today, the 5C may sell well.
I agree that the form factor for the next top-of-the-line iphone will change. However it is possible that the 5c has shown us Apple's roadmap for mid level iPhones - pack all of last years internals into a cheaper and easier to produce plastic case to arrive at a "new" model to present to the consumer.
Another benefit to plastic, is it's easy to mold into different shapes and sizes. Apple could easily unveil an all "new" C form factor next year as a companion to the iPhone 6.
At least from what I've heard from Apple store employees and read online, the 5S seems to have had higher demand and higher sales this weekend than the 5C. But if these Walmart stories are true, the 2 phones could have a more even split than we're thinking. Also depends on what the international picture looks like.
I think the 5S sold better overseas which would push it's sales total higher than the 5C.
They would have if they made less of them. I wonder how many they actually made.
I went to the local Apple Store just to see the new models.
The 5C felt better than I thought in terms of solid feel, the colors aren't of my taste, but I'm sure the kids will love em.
The 5S was fine, it's just not a bigger screen, but the place was jammed packed on a Sunday. I overheard a sales person tell a customer that they only had a few 64 G models, this was just a couple of hours after the place opened up.
I think the 5Cs were selling quite well.
I am hoping they can squeeze out a larger screen model within 6 months.
Has Apple said they aren't announcing a larger screen within 6 months? I wouldn't be at all surprised if they did. The reason is by that time they would have enough chips and finger sensors and they can't announce too many new iPhones at the same time. Not enough components to go around, but in 6 months from now, the iPhone 5S sales would have normalized down a little so they could spit out a newer bigger screen. I won't hold my breath, but it won't surprise me if they did.
The sales figures that get reported tomorrow, while important, aren't the only things that are important. What would have been interesting to know is the backlog of orders that Apple had the past few years after the launch weekend. There have never been enough phones to sell on the opening weekend of the most updated model of phone and there won't be because Apple is going to ramp production once it is clear what the overall demand looks like. What is better to report, an opening weekend with 10 million phones sold and a 10 million phone backlog or 5 million in sales with a 20 million backlog? No matter how the backlog compares, I will bet that the press release tomorrow will say that demand is unprecedented. And the mainstream media will read into that anything they want it to mean.
Has Apple said they aren't announcing a larger screen within 6 months? I wouldn't be at all surprised if they did. The reason is by that time they would have enough chips and finger sensors and they can't announce too many new iPhones at the same time. Not enough components to go around, but in 6 months from now, the iPhone 5S sales would have normalized down a little so they could spit out a newer bigger screen. I won't hold my breath, but it won't surprise me if they did.
Nope.
If a bigger screen came out in 6 months there would be riots in the streets from the 10s of millions of 5S buyers. There's a reason Apple goes on a yearly update cycle.
The predictability encourages people to buy new Apple products at launch especially iPhone.
Yes the iPad 4 fiasco happened last year but that was at least the same form factor.
The most we're getting from iPhone in 6 months would be new 5C colors or a lower 5C model (possibly an 8GB option).
I was lucky enough to get my 64gb space gray iPhone 5S. Although, I must admit that the 5C is much better in the hand than I was giving It credit for. It's really nice
Ordered my daughter a silver 5s on Friday from AT&T and we were told a couple of weeks. It has already been shipped and will arrive on Monday.
You're a great Dad!
I bought my daughter (21 at the time) the original iPhone a day after it came out. A week later I asked how she liked it. She said, "Dad, I love it. My whole life is in this phone!" I was really pleased.
Of course, she meant the photos of her friends, access to email, visual voicemail, an organized contact list, easy texting, access to the internet, etc., etc.
I totally turned her on to Apple. I gave her my MacBook to take to Med School. After the first year she bought a MacBookPro. More iPhones and now iPads, retina and a mini, ATV, Time Capsule, iPhone 5, and on and on!
I went by the Apple store this week-end to hold the new phones in hand. The 5c feels cheaper than what's expected of Apple. I think they will lower the price for it to $0 on contract, eventually, though it should go $50 lower than that unlocked: $400. That would be an adequate price based on what I perceived to be the quality of the phone. I did not like the fact that the buttons are all plastic and not metal. Not for that price. I stand my by initial opinion that Apple made a mistake in the way they built and priced this phone. It's not nice enough to be high end, and not cheap enough for its build quality. Sorry!
I heard something similar at my store. iPhone 5Cs remain in stock with very little interest or sales.
It may do better after launch but it's definitely not been the "global sensation that would strip sales from Android" many of us had hoped for.
Keep in mind that Android buyers don't stand in line waiting for the stores to open to get their next phone. Apple's early adopters are going to want all the tech they can get. $100 is not going to stop them.
smartest thing I have heard in a while. Also, I think the 5c sales are going to be a hot item for christmas season. I have to admit, if it was just last years phone I would not have even given it a second thought. The overall color scheme including the OS make it compelling. I personally like the yellow and green ones.
Comments
The Apple leather case takes the 5s to a whole new level, I highly recommend them, I have a product Red version and one I dyed so it's one of a kind.
Thanks, I'll check it out. I like the idea of product Red.
Maybe if you were paying attention you would know what I am thinking.
... but don't worry, Jragosta missed it as well... so did one other person.
Maybe the reason that we all "missed" your intent is this: Fact: Apple is on record as stating first weekend sales of the iPhone 5 (2012) topped five million.
In your #16 post you said: "7 million would be the number... considering that China was included in the launch this time. That would equal last year's launch of the 5. It would signal no growth over last year."? (italics mine)
In my reply (#125) I said: "Growth is growth. I can tell you for a fact that when my business went up by 40% ... I never once said ... "well yeah, but that's only because I have 40% more customers this year ... so it doesn't count".
I cannot make it any clearer than that. I realize that some posters (hint, hint) specialize in ambiguity, otherwise known as cover your ass posting in case you get called on it, my mistake was, I guess, in not recognizing that you fell into that demographic. btw ... you'll have last kick at this thing as I am "off to the races". So feel free ....
Maybe the reason that we all "missed" your intent is this: Fact: Apple is on record as stating first weekend sales of the iPhone 5 (2012) topped five million.
In your #16 post you said: "7 million would be the number... considering that China was included in the launch this time. That would equal last year's launch of the 5. It would signal no growth over last year."? (italics mine)
In my reply (#125) I said: "Growth is growth. I can tell you for a fact that when my business went up by 40% ... I never once said ... "well yeah, but that's only because I have 40% more customers this year ... so it doesn't count".
I cannot make it any clearer than that. I realize that some posters (hint, hint) specialize in ambiguity, otherwise known as cover your ass posting in case you get called on it, my mistake was, I guess, in not recognizing that you fell into that demographic. btw ... you'll have last kick at this thing as I am "off to the races". So feel free ....
Geez, man... don't blame me. I can't help it if your comprehension level is low.
___________________
Hmmmm... let's see.
1. Last year Apple sold 5 million 5s in the first three days at launch. China was not included in the initial launch.
2. Later, when introduced in China the 5 sold another 2 million at launch in the first 3 days.
3. That would equal 7 million sold total over the 3 initial days for both the initial launch and then the 3 day launch in China.
... so, let's say that Apple sold 7 million 5s phones at launch this time. A launch that includes China. Yes, at first glance it appears that there is a 40% increase in sales during the first three days. You'd be correct.
Now a dumb investor would say, "Holy crap! Apple just sold 40% more phones during the launch weekend!"
A smart investor would say, "That figure looks good at first glance but we have to remember that it includes China. I'm not going to jump up and down about a perceived 40% growth at Apple until I see the figures for the next three months because it looks like there is zero growth at launch when all considerations are weighed."
This reminds me of the time my Boss got a complaint from a tenant that said I was over-watering the grass at the apartment building. I happened to tell the tenant that the water goes on for an hour in the morning and an hour at night. I forgot to tell him that is the sum total of the 5 zones being watered... 12 minutes for each zone. Sadly, the tenant still didn't get it even after I explained it to him.
Blackbook did not work out the implications of (his saying that) the 5c would be dud. If Apple were to miss with the 5c, then all the negative press and market sentiment, etc., would go from the present noise level to an actual destructive force.
Not seeing that Apple is now doing structural plastic the way they did structural aluminum is a failure of perception. They are redefining the way phones are built—again. To miss that is to makes any opinion you have about the appeal of the 5c worthless, except as a psychological curiosity. Square but rounded shoulders, a flat back, machined holes, and a reinforcing antenna are not trivial details, they're architecture. It isn't a snap-on plastic shell with hardly any thought given to function, in other words. Ive's seriousness of purpose is transmitted to the susceptible person handling the phone more or less unconsciously. If you can't look, actually feel, past the color and the polymer and realize this, it is really just an indication that you're not perceptually susceptible.
The colors are a matter of opinion and taste. My comment about their not being my colors should have reflected that, so that two-dimensional thinkers would not seize on it.
Yes I know it must be tiresome to you who either side with blackbook or don't care, but I wouldn't be sticking out my neck with rosy predictions if the "cheap plastic" meme weren't spreading like a disease.
I went back to my local Apple store again today.
I agree that the form factor for the next top-of-the-line iphone will change. However it is possible that the 5c has shown us Apple's roadmap for mid level iPhones - pack all of last years internals into a cheaper and easier to produce plastic case to arrive at a "new" model to present to the consumer.
Another benefit to plastic, is it's easy to mold into different shapes and sizes. Apple could easily unveil an all "new" C form factor next year as a companion to the iPhone 6.
How do we know 5s is selling more than the 5c?
At least from what I've heard from Apple store employees and read online, the 5S seems to have had higher demand and higher sales this weekend than the 5C. But if these Walmart stories are true, the 2 phones could have a more even split than we're thinking. Also depends on what the international picture looks like.
Apple could easily unveil an all "new" C form factor next year as a companion to the iPhone 6.
iPhone 5SC.
iPhone 5SC.
I'm hoping that's not it.
Didn’t sell out in 40 seconds. Apple is doomed.
They would have if they made less of them. I wonder how many they actually made.
The 5S was fine, it's just not a bigger screen, but the place was jammed packed on a Sunday. I overheard a sales person tell a customer that they only had a few 64 G models, this was just a couple of hours after the place opened up.
I am hoping they can squeeze out a larger screen model within 6 months.
Has Apple said they aren't announcing a larger screen within 6 months? I wouldn't be at all surprised if they did. The reason is by that time they would have enough chips and finger sensors and they can't announce too many new iPhones at the same time. Not enough components to go around, but in 6 months from now, the iPhone 5S sales would have normalized down a little so they could spit out a newer bigger screen. I won't hold my breath, but it won't surprise me if they did.
The sales figures that get reported tomorrow, while important, aren't the only things that are important. What would have been interesting to know is the backlog of orders that Apple had the past few years after the launch weekend. There have never been enough phones to sell on the opening weekend of the most updated model of phone and there won't be because Apple is going to ramp production once it is clear what the overall demand looks like. What is better to report, an opening weekend with 10 million phones sold and a 10 million phone backlog or 5 million in sales with a 20 million backlog? No matter how the backlog compares, I will bet that the press release tomorrow will say that demand is unprecedented. And the mainstream media will read into that anything they want it to mean.
Ordered my daughter a silver 5s on Friday from AT&T and we were told a couple of weeks. It has already been shipped and will arrive on Monday.
Nope.
If a bigger screen came out in 6 months there would be riots in the streets from the 10s of millions of 5S buyers. There's a reason Apple goes on a yearly update cycle.
The predictability encourages people to buy new Apple products at launch especially iPhone.
Yes the iPad 4 fiasco happened last year but that was at least the same form factor.
The most we're getting from iPhone in 6 months would be new 5C colors or a lower 5C model (possibly an 8GB option).
Oh, that’s not it (see iPad). Lack of all other evidence in this department is it.
Also the fact that such a device would be unusable in the same manner as all phones since the first one. Not the first iPhone, the first phone.
It fixes one of the biggest complaints from new iPhone 5 owners: "it's too thin and light."
Ordered my daughter a silver 5s on Friday from AT&T and we were told a couple of weeks. It has already been shipped and will arrive on Monday.
You're a great Dad!
I went by the Apple store this week-end to hold the new phones in hand. The 5c feels cheaper than what's expected of Apple. I think they will lower the price for it to $0 on contract, eventually, though it should go $50 lower than that unlocked: $400. That would be an adequate price based on what I perceived to be the quality of the phone. I did not like the fact that the buttons are all plastic and not metal. Not for that price. I stand my by initial opinion that Apple made a mistake in the way they built and priced this phone. It's not nice enough to be high end, and not cheap enough for its build quality. Sorry!
I heard something similar at my store. iPhone 5Cs remain in stock with very little interest or sales.
It may do better after launch but it's definitely not been the "global sensation that would strip sales from Android" many of us had hoped for.
Keep in mind that Android buyers don't stand in line waiting for the stores to open to get their next phone. Apple's early adopters are going to want all the tech they can get. $100 is not going to stop them.
smartest thing I have heard in a while. Also, I think the 5c sales are going to be a hot item for christmas season. I have to admit, if it was just last years phone I would not have even given it a second thought. The overall color scheme including the OS make it compelling. I personally like the yellow and green ones.